MLB Grind Down: Sunday, August 16 - Page Three

by Dave Potts (CheeseIsGood) Last Updated 2015-08-16 14:32:39

Tampa Bay at Texas – 3:05 PM EST

Tampa Bay					Texas
			Drew Smyly					Yovani Gallardo
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TEX (-104)					9
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.175	0.493	0.219	0.288	SP vs. Left	0.234	0.668	0.297	0.167
SP vs. Right	0.25	0.747	0.327	0.204	SP vs. Right	0.264	0.699	0.31	0.167
Batter Splits	TBR BvP		TB vs R		Batter Splits	TEX BvP		TEX vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Drew Smyly – Smyly comes off the DL to make his first start since early May. He is a good young pitcher with a bright future, but I am not going to risk using him in his first start back from a shoulder injury in a hitter’s park against a tough Rangers lineup.
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 16 – SIERA: 2.32 – ERA: 2.70 – K%: 33.3% – BB%: 4.8% – HR/9: 2.16

Salaries: $7,900 FD, $8,000 DK

Yovani Gallardo – Don’t be fooled by his 3.33 ERA, Gallardo is not pitching well right now. In eight starts since the beginning of July, he has an 18:25 K:BB ratio; that is beyond terrible. With those kind of numbers, when his BABIP and HR/FB rate correct themselves, he could fly past his 4.59 SIERA. Even though Tampa struggles with right-handed pitching, he must be avoided. Pitcher Rating – 3
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 138 – SIERA: 4.59 – ERA: 3.33 – K%: 15.0% – BB%: 9.0% – HR/9: 0.72

Salaries: $7,700 FD, $6,100 DK

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Yovani Gallardo is a pitcher to play against right now, unfortunately, the Rays are a much better team against left-handed pitching. Gallardo does not have strong splits, so right-handed batters don’t need to be avoided. John Jaso is the top option in this lineup, and Asdrubal Cabrera needs to be considered as long as his hot streak continues.

Elite Plays:

John Jaso – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .392 – OBP: .402 – ISO: .171 – wRC+:157
Asdrubal Cabrera – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .312 – OBP: .316 – ISO: .152 – wRC+:102

Secondary Plays:

Evan Longoria – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .316 – OBP: .320 – ISO: .148 – wRC+:105
Logan Forsythe – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .326 – OBP: .357 – ISO: .092 – wRC+:111
Grady Sizemore – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .287 – OBP: .232 – ISO: .228 – wRC+:84

Texas

We can’t know what to expect out of Drew Smyly today, but he has been a very good pitcher when healthy, so I’ll be using Rangers bats sparingly today.

Secondary Plays:

Adrian Beltre – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .326 – OBP: .333 – ISO: .157 – wRC+:102
Elvis Andrus – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .303 – OBP: .317 – ISO: .105 – wRC+:86
Prince Fielder – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .339 – OBP: .333 – ISO: .194 – wRC+:111

Washington at San Francisco – 4:05 PM EST

Washington					San Francisco
			Joe Ross					Madison Bumgarner
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SFG (-174)					6.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.295	0.887	0.382	0.198	SP vs. Left	0.228	0.573	0.254	0.306
SP vs. Right	0.167	0.406	0.18	0.279	SP vs. Right	0.238	0.673	0.295	0.241
Batter Splits	WAS BvP		WAS vs L		Batter Splits			SF vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Joe Ross – Ross has his first rough outing in his last start at the Dodgers, allowing five runs with just one strikeout and four walks. It’s difficult to know how to project him going forward as his overall numbers are outstanding in every category. Based on his minor league history, he was likely pitching a little over his head early on, but can certainly be considered as a tournament play based on his first seven starts. Pitcher Rating – 6
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 49 – SIERA: 3.08 – ERA: 3.44 – K%: 24.0% – BB%: 4.0% – HR/9: 0.91

Salaries: $7,300 FD, $8,600 DK

Madison Bumgarner – You really can’t go wrong with any of the big three aces today; Bumgarner, Chris Sale or Zack Greinke. Over the past month, Bumgarner has the highest strikeout rate, lowest walk rate and lowest SIERA of the group. He has a 36:2 K:BB ratio over his last four starts, and even when he had one of his worst starts of the year, giving up six runs in Texas, he still put up an acceptable fantasy score by going seven innings with eight strikeouts and no walks. I could keep going about how he good he is, but basically, he has the ability to pitch a complete game shutout with double-digit strikeouts every time he takes the mound. Pitcher Rating – 9.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 154 – SIERA: 3.00 – ERA: 3.15 – K%: 25.8% – BB%: 4.2% – HR/9: 0.93

Salaries: $12,300 FD, $11,900 DK

Batter Grind Down

Washington

There is no reason to target any batters against Bumgarner.

Secondary Plays:

San Francisco

We don’t have a long enough track record to make definitive statements about the splits of Joe Ross, but so far, he does look vulnerable against left-handed batters. Keeping in mind that it’s a small sample size, these numbers jump off the page; against right-handed batters he has a 28% strikeout rate and 60% ground ball rate. Against left-handed batters, he has a 20% strikeout rate and 35% ground ball rate. That moves Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford further up my list today.

Elite Plays

Brandon Belt – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .372 – OBP: .359 – ISO: .222 – wRC+:146
Brandon Crawford – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .350 – OBP: .326 – ISO: .235 – wRC+:131

Secondary Plays:

Buster Posey – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .386 – OBP: .401 – ISO: .168 – wRC+:155

San Diego at Colorado – 4:10 PM EST

San Diego					Colorado
			Ian Kennedy					Chris Rusin
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			COL (-110)					11
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.238	0.743	0.322	0.242	SP vs. Left	0.307	0.843	0.361	0.137
SP vs. Right	0.256	0.75	0.329	0.226	SP vs. Right	0.312	0.847	0.365	0.161
Batter Splits	SDP BvP		SD vs L		Batter Splits	COL BvP		COL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Ian Kennedy – Kennedy continues to struggle with home runs, with a remarkable streak of 11 straight starts giving up at least one home run. While the rest of his line looks solid, and his 19.1% HR/FB rate should come down eventually, Coors Field is not the place to look for a turnaround. He should not be used today. Pitcher Rating – 3.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 115 – SIERA: 3.86 – ERA: 4.37 – K%: 21.5% – BB%: 7.4% – HR/9: 1.95

Salaries: $7,900 FD, $6,500 DK

Chris Rusin – Rusin’s low walk rate and 53% ground ball rate make him a tough pitcher to play against. You are certainly not going to use any pitcher with a below average strikeout rate at Coors Field, but he’s not a free square to stack Padres against either. Pitcher Rating – 3.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 81 – SIERA: 3.90 – ERA: 4.43 – K%: 15.7% – BB%: 6.0% – HR/9: 1.22

Salaries: $5,200 FD, $4,500 DK

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

It may just be a matter of semantics whether to consider Padres bats as elite plays or secondary plays. The Coors Field factor, of course, puts them in play with big upside, but most of their prices are so high around the industry that it’s difficult to suggest playing many of them in cash games against a high ground ball pitcher. Feel free to use any of these right-handed batters where you can fit them in, but I would prioritize the Rockies ahead of them.

Secondary Plays:

Matt Kemp – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .330 – OBP: .320 – ISO: .182 – wRC+: 114
Justin Upton – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .231 – OBP: .241 – ISO: .086 – wRC+: 46
Derek Norris – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .335 – OBP: .330 – ISO: .154 – wRC+: 117
Jedd Gyorko – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .356 – OBP: .380 – ISO: .164 – wRC+:132
Yangervis Solarte – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .265 – OBP: .277 – ISO: .105 – wRC+:69

Colorado

Ian Kennedy does not have pronounced splits, all batters can be considered against him. His fly ball rate is a little higher against left-handed batters, so the search for home runs begins there, but this entire lineup can be used if stacking this game. This is the top overall offense to play today.

Elite Plays:

Carlos Gonzalez – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .411 – OBP: .362 – ISO: .314 – wRC+:148
Charlie Blackmon – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .371 – OBP: .370 – ISO: .189 – wRC+:123
Nolan Arenado – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .387 – OBP: .318 – ISO: .321 – wRC+:132

Secondary Plays:

Jose Reyes – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .306 – OBP: .320 – ISO: .091 – wRC+:89
Ben Paulsen – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .368 – OBP: .350 – ISO: .213 – wRC+:119
D.J. LeMahieu – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .352 – OBP: .370 – ISO: .120 – wRC+:108

Cincinnati at LA Dodgers – 4:10 PM EST

Cincinnati					LA Dodgers
			Anthony Desclafani					Zack Greinke
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			LAD (-225)					7
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.271	0.814	0.352	0.174	SP vs. Left	0.227	0.592	0.263	0.228
SP vs. Right	0.257	0.676	0.293	0.175	SP vs. Right	0.218	0.597	0.264	0.260
Batter Splits	CIN BvP		CIN vs R		Batter Splits	LAD BvP		LA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Anthony DeSclafani – DeSclafani is a respectable pitcher against right-handed batters and has shown occasional flashes of being able to put everything together, but he is simply not good enough against left-handed batters to be able to consider using against this Dodgers lineup. Pitcher Rating – 4
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 132 – SIERA: 4.38 – ERA: 3.75 – K%: 17.4% – BB%: 8.4% – HR/9: 0.75

Salaries: $6,900 FD, $7,400 DK

Zack Greinke – Greinke has been outstanding all season with only two bad starts on his game log. He has raised his strikeout rate to 26.3% over the past month, adding to his potential upside. He is a heavy favorite facing a struggling Reds team at home. You can argue that Chris Sale, Carlos Carrasco and Madison Bumgarner have more strikeout upside, but Greinke is certainly the safest cash game play. Pitcher Rating – 9.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 158 – SIERA: 3.17 – ERA: 1.65 – K%: 23.6% – BB%: 4.6% – HR/9: 0.45

Salaries: $12,400 FD, $12,400 DK

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Cincinnati batters can be safely avoided against Greinke today.

Secondary Plays:

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers left-handed bats can be loaded up against DeSclafani with his .343 wOBA and 35% hard contact rate allowed to lefties. He loses his control and his ground ball tilt when facing left-handed batters and this lineup has a lot of ways to hurt him. They have good stacking potential with the ability to get into the Reds bullpen early in the game.

Elite Plays:

Adrian Gonzalez – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .387 – OBP: .386 – ISO: .252 – wRC+:152
Andre Ethier – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .388 – OBP: .386 – ISO: .217 – wRC+:152
Yasmani Grandal – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .387 – OBP: .386 – ISO: .235 – wRC+:152

Secondary Plays:

Joc Pederson – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .362 – OBP: .369 – ISO: .245 – wRC+:134
Justin Turner – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .439 – OBP: .409 – ISO: .265 – wRC+:187
Yasiel Puig – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .309 – OBP: .299 – ISO: .168 – wRC+:98

LA Angels at Kansas City – 8:10 PM EST

LA Angels					Kansas City
			Hector Santiago					Yordano Ventura
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			KCR (-131)					8
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.221	0.588	0.265	0.197	SP vs. Left	0.241	0.688	0.305	0.193
SP vs. Right	0.24	0.728	0.319	0.216	SP vs. Right	0.250	0.707	0.315	0.209
Batter Splits	LAA BvP		ANA vs R		Batter Splits	KCR BvP		KC vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Hector Santiago – Santiago is an extreme fly ball pitcher with an above average strikeout rate. He is at the mercy of his HR/FB rate, which should match up well with Kansas City; a good hitting team, but low in power, and playing in a pitchers park. That being said, he’s somewhere in the middle of the tournament options today, as it’s tough to expect anyone to fully shut down the Royals. He makes a fine GPP target or SP2, just keep your expectations in check. Pitcher Rating – 6
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 134 – SIERA: 3.96 – ERA: 2.87 – K%: 22.3% – BB%: 7.3% – HR/9: 1.27

Salaries: $8,000 FD, $7,500 DK

Yordano Ventura – Ventura is always an adventure and disappoints more often than not, but there is always upside lurking with him. He threw six scoreless innings against Detroit last week with eight strikeouts but six walks. Prior to that, he had allowed 11 runs in his previous 12 innings with just five strikeouts. He’s been bad much more than he’s been good this year, and I just can’t stomach the risk. Pitcher Rating – 4.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 101 – SIERA: 3.99 – ERA: 4.97 – K%: 19.4% – BB%: 8.4% – HR/9: 0.98

Salaries: $8,400 FD, $6,600 DK

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

I will likely either stack the Angels or avoid them all together against Yordano Ventura. An unpredictable pitcher is tough to target individual batters against, but there is certainly big upside in this offense

Elite Plays:

Mike Trout – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .417 – OBP: .395 – ISO: .299 – wRC+:176

Secondary Plays:

Albert Pujols – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .368 – OBP: .330 – ISO: .267 – wRC+:142
Kole Calhoun – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .335 – OBP: .327 – ISO: .169 – wRC+:119

Kansas City

The Royals are such a strong team overall, they always seem to find a way to put runs on the board. Outside of Lorenzo Cain, it’s not clear where the best matchup is against Hector Santiago.

Elite Plays:

Lorenzo Cain – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .444 – OBP: .432 – ISO: .248 – wRC+:189

Secondary Plays:

Kendrys Morales – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .330 – OBP: .346 – ISO: .114 – wRC+:110
Alcides Escobar – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .301 – OBP: .333 – ISO: .062 – wRC+:90
Eric Hosmer – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .330 – OBP: .344 – ISO: .117 – wRC+:110
Ben Zobrist – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .399 – OBP: .427 – ISO: .158 – wRC+:161

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