NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 14

by Scott Barrett (ScottBarrett) Last Updated 2017-12-10 16:30:59

Last week was another down week in tournaments where I won a few hundred dollars on DraftKings, but lost about 3X that that on FanDuel. Heavy exposure to Mike Evans, Jordan Howard, and Jared Cook were the main culprits in busting my lineups, but I’m fine with the process there. I was up front with the risks on Howard, but likely shouldn’t have been so invested given those risks. Same with Cook after busting in an equally soft matchup the week previous.

This is a weird slate with a lot of value and some likely massively owned players, but few top names with most of the best teams off of the primetime slates. At first glance, I’m not sure how valuable you’ll find the current state of this chalk-laced article, but I promise to update within 24 hours discussing some ancillary plays and how I’m approaching the slate and each position as a whole. Right now, these are just how I see the top plays. In the update, I’ll discuss strategies when factoring in ownership.

Here are some of my favorite tournament plays from the main slate this week:

Note 1: All references to expected fantasy points can be explained here.
Note 2: All references to team fantasy points allowed over expectation are based on this chart.
Note 3: All numbers in parentheses refer to a player’s salary rank on each site.

Quarterbacks

Alex Smith [DK: QB6, FD: QB3] – Smith feels like chasing points after scoring 37.6 fantasy points last week (the most of any quarterback in any game this season), but with a new play-caller we’re faced with the possibility that this iteration of Alex Smith is back to being the old-new-Smith of Weeks 1-7. The matchup is ideal as well. If we toss out Paxton Lynch and Geno Smith – who have no business starting in the NFL – Oakland has an opposing passer rating of 112.9, which ranks second-worst of the past decade. Oakland also ranks sixth-worst in fantasy points per dropback and fourth-worst in fantasy points per game over expectation to opposing quarterbacks. Smith leads all quarterbacks in fantasy points scored on deep passes, and 24.7 percent(!) more than the next-closest passer. Oakland is allowing the third-most fantasy points per game on deep passes, after allowing the fifth-most last year as well. Clearly this also bodes well for Tyreek Hill, who ranks third among receivers in fantasy points per game on deep targets. Travis Kelce is the other obvious stacking candidate, ranking first among tight ends and 10th among all receivers in expected fantasy points per game (and 11th in actual fantasy points per game) over the last five weeks of the season. Oakland also ranks sixth-worst in fantasy points per game over expectation to opposing tight ends over their last five games.

jimmy-garoppolo-550x330

Jimmy Garoppolo [DK: QB21, FD: QB22] – There are a lot of cheap/bad quarterbacks in great spots, but Garoppolo is still cheaper than his talent level and arguably draws the softest possible matchup for any quarterback. Garoppolo totaled 293 yards and zero touchdowns against Chicago last week, but Chicago has been one of the toughest matchups for opposing quarterbacks this season (ranking sixth-best against expectation), and especially so at home. Still, Garoppolo was our third-highest-graded passer of the week. Houston is allowing the most fantasy points per dropback to opposing quarterbacks and ranks second-worst against expectation. In a game with good pace, a close spread (+/- 2.5), and the fourth-highest over/under of the main slate, I could see this being a shootout. Marquise Goodwin is the obvious stacking candidate, coming off of a tough matchup himself. Goodwin ran 58 percent of his routes from Garoppolo’s left last week, while Chicago has given up the third-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing left wide receivers. Still, he rose above it, catching all eight of his targets for 99 yards. Goodwin has a much better matchup this week, as Houston is surrendering the ninth-most fantasy points per game to outside wide receivers, and the fourth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers on deep passes. Goodwin leads the 49ers in deep targets, ran a 4.27 40-yard dash at his combine, and should run 50 percent of his routes against Kevin Johnson (4.52 forty-yard-dash, ranks bottom-four among 98 qualifying cornerbacks in fantasy points allowed on both a per route and per target basis).

Running Backs

Giovani Bernard [DK: RB92, FD: RB58] – Last week we wrote up Kenyan Drake (who smashed), saying “Depleted backfields create unique opportunities with minimal competition for sometimes marginal athletes to far exceed their potential and reach elite fantasy heights.” The same case can easily be made for Bernard. Bernard saw 100 percent of the team’s running back touches and snaps after rookie Joe Mixon left with a concussion in Week 13. If Mixon is inactive this week, Bernard is a borderline lock button play on DraftKings this week. Bernard leads the team in yards per carry (4.2), while all other Bengals running backs to play a snap this year (only Mixon and Jeremy Hill) combine to average just 3.3 yards per carry. The matchup is neutral at best, but Bernard should still rise far above it given a likely massive and gamescript-proof (best used as a receiver out of the backfield) workload, at an embarrassingly low price-tag.

Mike Davis [DK: RB62, FD: RB41] – Davis was injured on the third play of the third quarter in Week 11 and played all four quarters in Week 13. Outside of that, he hasn’t recorded a snap all season. If we say he’s played just six quarters this season, he’s averaging 16.5 expected fantasy points and 14.7 actual fantasy points per four quarters. Jacksonville has been fantastic against the pass this season, and ranks fourth-worst in yards per carry (4.56). As only the 62nd-highest-priced running back on DraftKings this week, he’s another glaring value.

Alfred Morris [DK: RB20, FD: RB11] – Morris is drawing zero chatter this week, but still represents a strong value based on projected workload and matchup. Dak Prescott injured his throwing hand in Week 13 and Jason Garrett coincidentally said on Wednesday he’d like to see Morris again receive 27 carries. Morris is averaging 5.4 yards per carry on the year and draws a Giants defense seven yards away from allowing the most rushing yards to opposing running backs this season. Rod Smith is a concern to steal work if the game tilts in favor of the Giants, though Morris has been far more efficient and Dallas is still favored by 4.0. As just the 20th-highest-priced running back on DraftKings, he’s another running back value to like.

Wide Receivers

josh-gordon-550x330

Josh Gordon [DK30, FD: WR28] – Last week, Gordon ranked sixth among wide receivers in expected fantasy points (20.3). He totaled 205 air yards, 11 targets, and five deep targets in his return to action after a 35-month absence. He finished the week ranking top-seven among wide receivers in air yards, targets, expected fantasy points, and target market share (34.3 percent). Though he scored 7.8 fantasy points below expectation, Gordon should not be knocked for poor efficiency in this contest. He finished the week as our ninth-highest-graded wide receiver via the pass. His 85 receiving yards was the second-most Los Angeles has allowed to any wide receiver this season, and the second-most by any Browns wide receiver in any game this season. He also ran 71 percent of his routes against Casey Hayward, totaling 76 yards of his 85 yards against him. This is notable, considering Hayward is our highest-graded cornerback this season and hasn’t allowed a wide receiver to top 80 yards against him in any game over the past two seasons – despite shadowing some of the league’s most notable names. (Hayward also came out and said Gordon was his toughest matchup this season.) The matchup is a dream this week as well, with Green Bay allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to outside wide receivers and the third-most over expectation to opposing WR1s. With that in mind, they’ve also just lost cornerback Kevin King for the rest of the season and fellow cornerbacks Davon House and Demetri Goodson haven’t practiced all week. The only concerns here are likely massive ownership, Kizer being bad, and weather (15 mph winds).

DeAndre Hopkins [DK: WR3, FD: WR2] – Everyone is on Stephen Anderson this week, and for good reason, but the same arguments of a depleted receiving corps can be made for Hopkins, who was already being targeted on over a third of Houston’s pass attempts. He leads all receivers in target market share (34 percent), expected fantasy points per game (20.8), and end zone targets (23, +5). The 49ers are our second-worst-graded team in pass coverage, and have no cornerback with the ability to cover a receiver like Hopkins. Rookie Ahkello Witherspoon is our 50th-highest-graded cornerback (of 115), while Dontae Johnson and K’Waun Williams both grade out among our bottom-12. I think I like him more than Keenan Allen, but will admit it’s very close.

Tight Ends

Stephen Anderson [DK: TE21, FD: Min. Price] – Anderson totaled 24.9 expected fantasy points in Week 13, which was the second-most by any tight end in any week this season. He saw 12 targets, with four coming in the red zone and three coming in the end zone. With C.J. Fiedorowicz, Braxton Miller, Ryan Griffin, and Bruce Ellington out, and Will Fuller questionable, Anderson should be set up for another big game this week. He’ll also be facing off against the 49ers, who have given up three touchdowns to tight ends in the three games since losing safety and primary tight end defender Jaquiski Tartt.

Jimmy Graham [DK: TE6, FD: TE4] – Based only on recent volume (adjusted for air yards and near-end-zone work), Graham is my No. 3 tight end on a per DraftKings dollar basis. He ranks third among tight ends in expected fantasy points per game over the past five weeks and over the full season, but is just the sixth-highest priced tight end of the week on DraftKings. He’s definitely a boom-or-bust play, but offers massive upside based on usage near the end zone. Graham has a whopping 13 targets inside the five-yard-line this season, while the next-closest player has only five(!). Jacksonville is something of a “tight end funnel” defense, at least in theory, ranking best in fantasy points allowed on both a per-target and per-route basis to opposing outside and slot wide receivers. 26 percent of Jacksonville’s receiving fantasy points allowed this season has gone to tight ends (sixth-most), though they’re just average against expectation.

UPDATES

Update (General): 1) I really don’t see much of an edge for myself this week, with so many of my favorite plays being the obvious plays. I’ll probably play about 50 percent what I would normally in GPPs. To me, DraftKings seems far looser than FanDuel in pricing this week, though I’ve felt the reverse has been true almost all year. 2) With the chalk so heavily concentrated this week (Bernard, Gordon, Anderson) this appears to be the perfect week to go contrarian. That being said, each of the three aforementioned players are still easily the top value plays at each position. I don’t see myself fading Bernard, I might hedge on Gordon if the weather is especially bad come Sunday morning, and I could see myself being heavily invested in Hopkins as something of a leverage play off of Anderson, but I suspect he’ll be highly owned as well. A contrarian roster construction would mean paying up at quarterback and running back, but there’s also not many strong plays in those tiers.

Update (Quarterback): Typically when there are so many high-powered offenses out of contention, I like to come up with some gross/contrarian QB-to-receiver stacks as a way of bolstering my upside. However, given all of the value this week, I’m probably not going to go in that direction. There are a lot of cheap quarterbacks to like in good matchups (mainly Blaine Gabbert and Deshone Kizer), but I’ll take a stand and roll with Garoppolo over both. Similarly Philip Rivers is a strong play, but I’ll stick with Smith over him… I could see myself taking a contrarian shot on Matthew Stafford, due to how much I love his wide receivers if I knew his hand was 100-percent, but wouldn’t be too invested… I like Jameis Winston a lot more than most. Detroit ranks worst over expectation to quarterbacks over each team’s last five games. He’s averaging 295 passing yards and 1.7 passing touchdowns in each game he’s attempted over 15 pass attempts… I’ve lost a lot of money mostly ignoring the Jets in this space. Over each team’s last six games, the Jets rank first in combined points, while Denver ranks fifth. This suggests Josh McCown or even gulps Trevor Siemian could be in contention in a game with sneaky shootout potential. The Jets rank dead-last over expectation and Denver ranks third-worst in opposing passer rating. Still, even if I go this route, it would just represent a small percentage of my exposure… Carson Wentz and Jared Goff aren’t being talked about enough despite both teams being two of the most high-powered offenses this season. I feel I’ll need to boost my exposure to this game, but am still trying to figure out how I’ll want to attack it… All other quarterbacks I’ll play will be stack-specific, but really I suspect to be heavily invested in the two names at the top unless ownership projects to be massive.

Update (Running Backs): Kerwynn Williams is in play again, but is harder to get excited about after seeing zero targets last week and with so many cheap running backs to like… Lamar Miller is exactly as good of a play as Jordan Howard was last week. Miller is averaging 22 opportunities per game due to a depleted backfield and draws the on-paper best possible matchup for any running back. Like with Howard, however, there’s concern Garoppolo plays good enough to hold a lead and Andre Ellington comes in and steals work… Todd Gurley leads all running backs in fantasy points per game, arguably holds more value this week with New Orleans and Pittsburgh off of the main slate, and is fairly matchup and gamescript-proof due to heavy involvement in the passing game. Still, the Eagles have been the toughest on-paper matchup for opposing running backs this season… LeSean McCoy is drawing quite a bit of buzz, despite “(player-popup #travaris-cadet)Travaris Cadet”:/players/travaris-cadet-13625’s 13 carries and 14 targets over the past three weeks. If forced to choose, however, I’d much prefer Melvin Gordon, who has seen 18 more opportunities over the past four weeks, and Washington has been beaten up more by running backs than Indianapolis in recent weeks… Jamaal Williams is an especially strong play again this week, despite the threat of Aaron Jones forcing this into a committee. The Browns have been good on the ground, but that’s typically somewhat negated by ceding plenty of scoring opportunities and a lot of positive gamescript. He ranks second among running backs in expected fantasy points per game over the past three weeks… Frank Gore is cheap, has seen a decent workload in recent weeks, draws a top-three matchup, but doesn’t have enough of a ceiling to really push him into contention this week, given all of the value elsewhere… Samaje Perine is intriguing based on recent workload in a matchup against a Chargers defense ranking second-worst in yards per carry allowed. Offensive line injuries, likely gamescript, and Byron Maxwell’s six targets last week have me off him, however… Jay Ajayi and Isaiah Crowell are poor on-paper plays, but could be tournament winners. Crowell is the perfect Balesian (meaning Jonathan Bales-esque, not the other Balesian) tournament play this week (almost entirely just because of wind and Kizer/Gordon ownership), but I’ve never played him and never will. PHI/LAR has the second-highest O/U of the week and the Rams are one of the best on paper matchups for a running back. Still even though Ajayi is the best running back on the team and saw the most volume last week, he’s most-likely stuck in a frustrating low-upside three-way RBBC…

Update (Wide Receivers): Bear with me here… I only wrote up two wide receivers, because I expected to go HAM in this section. There’s a lot of wide receivers I like quite a bit, but so many in similar tiers. In no particular order (seriously, no order at all)… Adam Thielen has been money all season, and both he and Stefon Diggs have strong matchups against a Carolina secondary allowing the most fantasy points to wide receivers over the past five weeks. For whatever reason, it seems they’re being overlooked in DFS this week… Jamison Crowder ranks top-15 among wide receivers in both expected and actual fantasy fantasy points per game over the last five weeks of the season, and Los Angeles has been our second-most egregious slot funnel defense this year… Sterling Shepard is another slot wide receiver to like. Since their Week 6 bye, Dallas is allowing the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers out of the slot, and 10.7 percent more than the next-closest defense. In three games without Odell Beckham Jr. and with Eli Manning under center, Shepard has totaled 29 targets and 49.2 fantasy points, despite failing to find the end zone over this stretch… Little analysis needs to be said for Michael Crabtree with Amari Cooper likely out, Marcus Peters definitely out, and Jared Cook being terrible. He’s a strong play… Larry Fitzgerald has scored over 20 fantasy points in three of his last four games, and faces an at-worst neutral matchup in Tennessee, though slot cornerback Logan Ryan is banged up… I’m enamored with DeSean Jackson and his DraftKings price-tag this week. He’s the 47th highest-priced wide receiver there, but ranks 21st in expected fantasy points per game in games when Winston has attempted more than 15 passes. Our No. 12-graded cornerback Darius Slay will be shadowing Mike Evans, while Detroit ranks second-worst over expectation to opposing WR2s and has given up the second-most plays of 30 or more yards to opposing receivers this season… Sammy Watkins saw nine targets in Week 12 (”(player-popup #robert-woods)Robert Woods”:/players/robert-woods-16566’ first inactive game of the season), catching four for 82 yards and a score. Then he drew Patrick Peterson on 85 percent of his routes in Week 13. This week Cooper Kupp draws our No. 4-graded cornerback (Patrick Robinson), and the Eagles are allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to slot wide receivers. Watkins, meanwhile, runs 71 percent of his routes outside and Philadelphia is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to outside wide receivers… Keenan Allen is just one of 22 wide receivers to ever total over 100.0 fantasy points over any consecutive three game stretch. He joined the list last week, and now faces the fifth-most egregious slot funnel defense (by percentage of wide receiver fantasy points allowed to the slot) in Washington… Marquise Lee is a great play for all of the non-matchup reasons we listed in last week’s article. While the matchup isn’t as good, it’s not as bad as it looks on paper due a few key injuries to Seattle’s secondary. He’s also drawing almost no buzz this week… Tampa Bay is allowing the most fantasy points per game to slot wide receivers and the most over expectation to opposing WR1s. Both Marvin Jones and Golden Tate are obviously in smash spots, but draw considerable risk given “(player-popup #matthew-stafford)Matt Stafford”:/players/matthew-stafford-11613’s hand injury. Tate – the lower aDOT receiver – feels safer due because of this. I’ll still be invested in both, but won’t feel great about it…