NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 3
Unfortunately for me, I learned a valuable and expensive lesson last week. My projections kept pushing me towards C.J. Anderson, but instead I ended up with none, preferring to go literally all-in on his opponent’s running back, Ezekiel Elliott. To make matters worse, my only other play at over 50 percent ownership in tournaments was Julio Jones – at 100 percent. Elliott had just nine carries in a game they trailed throughout, while Anderson racked up carries and fantasy points behind the positive gamescript. Jones seemed on his way to a huge game (95 yards on seven targets in the first half), until, with a comfortable lead, the Falcons attempted just eight passes in the second half. This was an unwelcome reminder of just how little confidence one can have in predicting gamescript.
With these lessons in mind, I’ll try to have a more balanced portfolio in tournaments moving forward. With this slate in particular, there are few players I love, but many more that I like. This slate is also muddied by a multitude of vague and ominous injury statuses and practice updates we likely won’t gain any clarity on until late Sunday morning. Personally, I think one of the keys to this slate is holding off on builds until late Sunday morning after inactives are released – but more on that at the end of this article.
Quarterbacks
Aaron Rodgers (vs. Cincinnati) [DK: 2nd, FD: 2nd] – I like the idea of paying up for Rodgers at home, at what should be low-ownership after last week’s let down in primetime and due to injuries to Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson. While Cobb is legitimately questionable despite a negative MRI, Nelson has practiced in full in each of the past two days. The common narrative this week is that Green Bay should obliterate a Cincinnati team that has scored just nine points through two home games. The fear, then, is – like with Atlanta last week – they won’t need to pass the ball much at all. Green Bay sports a poor defense that could keep things close, but even if not, I’m not terribly concerned. Green Bay passed on 57 percent of their plays when leading last season, which was the sixth-highest rate in the league. Green Bay ranks fourth-lowest in rushing attempts per game this season. Over the past two seasons, or over the past four seasons, Rodgers averages at least three fantasy points per game more in two-score victories. Since Week 7 of 2016, Rodgers averages 25.1 fantasy points per game, or 3.0 more than next-closest (Andrew Luck) and 4.2 more than third-closest (Drew Brees). I also like the matchup quite a bit against a defense that runs zone-coverage at one of the highest rates in the league. Rodgers has been far more efficient against zone coverage in recent years. The potential loss of Cobb is significant, but should be helped offset by the return of Bryan Bulaga.
Derek Carr (@ Washington) [DK: 5th-highest-priced, FD: 5th-highest-priced] – My main concern with Carr, for tournaments, is always whether or not he’ll need to pass. Oakland’s running game looks more than capable, and Washington ranked fourth-worst in opposing yards per carry last season. However, I’m siding with Vegas in predicting this to be a high-scoring shootout. Oakland is favored by only three points and are given the second-highest implied total of the week in Vegas’ highest Over/Under of the week. Carr has eight touchdowns in his last three games, despite averaging just 30 attempts per game. Washington has an implied total of 25.5, and over the past two seasons, Carr averages 21.0 fantasy points per game (as opposed to just 15.4) when his opponent has scored 24 or more points. Kirk Cousins is a top play in his own right as well.
Running Backs
Jay Ajayi (@ New York Jets) [DK: 4th, FD: 4th] – Ajayi is going to be one of the highest-owned running backs of this slate, but it’s not without good reason. He saw 30 touches and played on 94 percent of his team’s running back snaps in Week 2. This has only happened six times since 2014, and five of these instances were from Le’Veon Bell. After finishing the 2016 season as our highest-graded and most-efficient running back, it’s exciting to see Ajayi used like a Le’Veon Bell or David Johnson-esque bell-cow running back. Though this is just a one-game sample size, this does back up offseason comments made by Adam Gase and his coaching staff. Over the summer, Gase had said “Ajayi could get as many as 350 rushing attempts if [he] stays healthy and plays all 16 games.” Dolphins OC Clyde Christensen had added that Ajayi’s receiving skills are “200 percent better [now] than a year ago.” Now serving as an every-down running back, Ajayi draws an ideal spot against the Jets, who have surrendered 332 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns on 61 carries (5.4 yards per carry) through two games. After losing three of their five highest-graded run defenders from a season ago, the Jets now rank last in PFF run defense grade.
C.J. Anderson (@ Buffalo) [DK: 14th, FD: 11th] – Anderson is our second-highest-graded running back through two weeks, and ranks first in touches, fourth in expected fantasy points, and tied for first in red-zone opportunities. He faces a Buffalo defense that surrendered the sixth-highest yards per carry average and the third-most rushing fantasy points per game to opposing running backs last season. Based purely on recent volume (expected fantasy points), he’s a top-three value-play at the position on both sites. This is Vegas’ second-lowest over/under of the week, and they have Denver as only three-point road favorites. PFF’s projected boxscores (and myself), like the over and Denver against the spread. I think Anderson could go low-owned despite last week’s big game, though I’m not sure why.
Wide Receivers
A.J. Green (@ Green Bay) [DK: 4th, FD: 9th] – I tend not to buy into very many DFS narratives without much supporting statistical evidence, but the one exception might be the “squeaky wheel gets the grease” narrative. I especially buy into it after an offensive coordinator gets fired the very next day a player (Green) calls for more targets. Green is a must-start against what’s at least a bottom-two secondary in the league. Green Bay surrendered the most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers last season, and are currently starting three cornerbacks grading among our 25-worst. Against the Packers last week, Julio Jones racked up 95 yards on seven targets in the first half, and could have had a monster game had the team not passed the ball just eight times in the second half. The Bengals will likely be trailing throughout, forcing Andy Dalton to throw early and often. If we take out Green’s two-snap game in Week 11 of last season, Green would have led all wide receivers in fantasy points per game and ranked second in targets per game.
Michael Thomas (@ Carolina) [DK: 11th, FD: 9th] – Thomas is a top upside play by my projections, but I also think there’s a good chance we can get him at low ownership coming off of two consecutive tough matchups. In Week 1, he faced a Vikings defense that ranked best in opposing passer rating, and was primarily against Xavier Rhodes, who led the league in opposing passer rating last year. We know New England sells out to stop an opposing team’s best offensive weapon, and that was clearly Michael Thomas for them in Week 2. Thomas gets a much softer matchup this week against a zone-heavy Panthers defense that allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing outside wide receivers last season.
Tight Ends
photo credit: Indianapolis Colts Twitter account
Jack Doyle (vs. Cleveland) [DK: 16th, FD: 16th] – In Week 1 against the Browns, Jesse James totaled 22.1 (PPR) fantasy points. In Week 2, he totaled just 6.7. In Week 1, against the Bengals, Ben Watson scored zero points on one target. In Week 2 against the Browns, he totaled 17.1 fantasy points. Last season, Cleveland allowed the second-most fantasy points per game against opposing tight ends (17.1), and the most fantasy points per target to opposing tight ends with 2.44, which was a whopping 16 percent more than the next-closest defense. This season, the Browns have our third-worst graded safety in Jabrill Peppers and two of our 15-worst-graded linebackers in Christian Kirksey and Jamie Collins. Last season, Arizona allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, and yet, Doyle gashed them last week for eight catches and 79 yards on eight targets. Throughout his preseason and regular season NFL career, Jacoby Brissett has targeted tight ends on 28.2 percent of his attempts, which is well above the 19.7 percent league-average rate. (Keep in mind, Gronkowski has run just 17 routes with Brissett at quarterback.) In college too, Brissett targeted his tight ends at an incredibly high rate. His leading receiver in 2015 was tight end Jaylen Samuels, who had 31 more receptions and four more receiving touchdowns than the next-closest receiver.
Zach Miller (vs. Pittsburgh) [DK: 22nd, FD: 27th] – Miller is within $500 of site-minimum pricing on both DraftKings and FanDuel, which seems egregious given his projected volume. Miller ranks fourth among tight ends in routes run per game, and, alongside the aforementioned Doyle, is one of only three tight ends to be asked to pass block on fewer than three percent of their passing snaps. Miller also ranks second in expected fantasy points per game and second in expected fantasy point market share among tight ends. Considering the Bears are fielding the worst wide receiving corps in the league, it would make sense they’d continue targeting the quietly efficient Miller at a high rate. Since the second half of 2015, Miller ranks seventh in fantasy points per game at the position and behind only Rob Gronkowski and Jordan Reed in fantasy points per target. Though poor quarterback play is still a massive concern, I’m hoping this is the week his production catches up to his volume.
STAY ON TOP OF INJURIES
The more I think about it, the more I believe staying on top of injuries will be the key to unlocking this week’s slate. I implore you to do your own hard work scouring through injury reports and last-minute updates on Rotoworld and Twitter. It promise it will pay off in the long run. In lieu of writing up an additional running back and wide receiver this week, I decided to mention some of the more complicated injury statuses and their potential impact on our DFS week.
If Demarco Murray sits, Derrick Henry borders on must-play territory. Tarik Cohen and Javorius Allen get massive bumps as well if Jordan Howard or Terrance West are inactive.
Randall Cobb potentially sitting would mean more targets funneled to Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams, Martellus Bennett, or Geronimo Allison. I like Bennett quite a bit this week, considering Cincinnati surrendered the most targets and the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends last season. Bennett ranks third among tight ends in routes run and targets. One (or both, if no shadow) of Green Bay’s perimeter wide receivers will have to deal with Adam Jones, who ranks fourth best in fantasy points allowed per route in coverage among all cornerbacks since 2014.
Jermaine Gresham and J.J. Nelson were limited in practice this week. If Nelson misses time, Jaron Brown seems nearly impossible to fade, despite whatever you may think of him as a talent.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins’ suspension has ended, but, reportedly out of shape, he could still miss Week 3. This would help keep Jermaine Kearse in tournament consideration.
With Greg Olsen out for the rest of the season, Kelvin Benjamin, Ed Dickson, Devin Funchess, and Christian McCaffrey could all be in line for a larger share of the targets. New Orleans’ phenomenal rookie cornerback Marshon Lattimore (who shadowed and shut down Brandin Cooks last week) could miss Week 2 with a concussion. He’s been the lone bright spot on this defense, and would mark a massive boost for all Panthers players involved in the passing game, but especially Benjamin.
Like with Olsen, the potential absence of Jimmy Graham would have a similar impact on Seattle’s pass-catchers.
Corey Coleman being out rightfully makes Rashard Higgins – who PFF had a second round grade on in 2016 – a very strong play.
The likely absence of John Ross and Tyler Eifert could funnel even more targets to the chalkiest wide receiver on the slate.
Jalen Ramsey missed practice on Thursday. Jacksonville has two near-elite perimeter cornerbacks in Ramsey and A.J. Bouye. If Ramsey sits out Week 3, all this does is make me tone down my ownership in slot wide receiver Jeremy Maclin, who has a fantastic matchup against our 34th-worst-graded cornerback in Aaron Colvin, while Ramsey and Bouye funnel targets underneath.
Corey Davis out means a higher concentration of targets to Delanie Walker, Eric Decker, and Rishard Matthews. Decker likely draws the most-attractive matchup of the three, considering Seattle saw the second-highest concentration of targets to the slot last season, and have allowed the second-most (22) this season.
Danny Amendola looks likely to play in Week 3. He was targeted by Tom Brady seven times on his first 27 targets (26 percent) before exiting Week 1 with a concussion. Among all cornerbacks to see at least 100 targets over the past three seasons, Houston’s slot cornerback Kareem Jackson ranks among the: 20-worst in opposing passer rating, 10-highest in target per snap percentage, and five-worst in fantasy points per snap. Rex Burkhead likely being out could mean a slight boost for both Amendola and James White.
DeVante Parker was viewed as one of the more-chalky wide receivers of the week. He saw a whopping 50 percent of Miami’s air yards in Week 2 and 18 percent of the targets. If he’s out or severely limited, this could mean more carries for Jay Ajayi (on the injury report as well) or more targets for Jarvis Landry, who already saw 15 targets (30 percent) last week.
Jerrell Freeman’s injury isn’t new, but I think the impact is massive, and not being talked about enough for Bell’s prospects this week. Freeman played in just 11 games last year, and despite that, still ranked as our third-highest-graded linebacker for the season, and easily led the team in run stops and running back targets. Opposing offenses have rushed for over 100 yards in each of the five games he’s missed over the past two seasons, but only five of 13 times in games he’s played. The Chicago matchup may not have looked great for Le’Veon Bell on first glance, but with Freeman out, Bell gets a significant boost.
Odell Beckham Jr. saw 30 targets for 196 yards and two scores against Philadelphia last season. If I knew he was 100 percent, he’d likely be my highest-owned wide receiver against the only cornerback-corps to rival Green Bay for worst in the league. Unfortunately, it’s doubtful he’s close to 100-percent, or that we might gain better clarity at any point this weekend.
It will be hard to fade DeAndre Hopkins and his ridiculous target upside if Malcolm Butler sits. Including plays called back due to penalty, DeShaun Watson has targeted Hopkins an absurd 30 of 56 pass attempts (54 percent target market share).
If Janoris Jenkins sits, Alshon Jeffery should have a field day on the outside against Eli Apple (who has been absolutely bullied in his last three games, allowing 16 completions on 25 targets for 240 yards and four touchdowns into his coverage) and a back-up in Ross Cockrell who has been deemed not good enough to start over him. Jeffery ranks first in air yards, fifth in targets, and fifth at the position in expected fantasy points. If Jenkins sits, this means less of a need to funnel targets to the tight end, so Ertz takes a slight hit.
If Jordan Reed is 100-percent it’s near impossible to fade him in a dream matchup against the Oakland Raiders. Over the last two seasons, Reed has averaged 18.6 fantasy points per game when playing at least 35 snaps in a game. For perspective, this crushes his DraftKings’ 3x expectation of 16.2. If he’s limited, I’m not sure how much exposure I want. If he’s out, Vernon Davis becomes a top play.
If Marlon Mack sits, Frank Gore will receive a boost in his value, but Gore’s stock is at Enron prices for a reason. Still, the matchup is strong at home against the Browns.
Rob Kelley could be out this week, but it wouldn’t move the needle for me at all.
The glaring difference between Sam Bradford and Case Keenum doesn’t need any analysis. All pass-catchers gain a significant boost if Bradford plays.