NFL Grind Down: Week 12 - Week Two
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
| Buffalo Bills | Kansas City Chiefs | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Sunday – 1 p.m. | Arrowhead Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 24.4 | 10 | 29 | 5 | Offense | 25.7 | 6 | 24 | 9 | |
| Opp. Defense | 19.8 | 8 | 15 | 4 | Opp. Defense | 22.7 | 14 | 18 | 10 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 10 | 4 | 32 | 1 | Buffalo Bills | 15 | 18 | 26 | 5 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Watkins | 39 | 25 | 3 | 368 | Maclin | 73 | 48 | 2 | 607 | |
| Woods | 53 | 33 | 2 | 358 | Wilson | 31 | 17 | 1 | 237 | |
| Hogan | 36 | 26 | 2 | 330 | Thomas | 24 | 17 | 2 | 174 | |
| Clay | 61 | 41 | 2 | 422 | Kelce | 71 | 50 | 3 | 620 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Tyrod Taylor (BUF, Questionable), Charcandrick West (KC, Questionable)
BUF Matchup Rating: 3.5
KC Matchup Rating: 5.0
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback: Since allowing five touchdowns to Aaron Rodgers a week after giving up three touchdowns to Peyton Manning, the Chiefs have intercepted 12 passes while letting only seven pass attempts result in touchdowns. Tyrod Taylor (FD $7,300, DK $5,100) is dealing with a lingering upper-body injury, and will have a tough time dealing with that ailment against one of the league’s better pass-rushing teams. This sets up as a situation to avoid entirely, as Taylor did not play well against New England last time out, and has generally been disappointing in recent weeks. If Taylor doesn’t start, EJ Manuel isn’t a better option, and would actually make the Kansas City defense a top play on the weekend.
Running Game: The Chiefs have limited opposing running backs to under 17 FanDuel points per game this season, which ranks 28th in the league. This matches up with their strong DVOA and numberFire metrics against the run, and their elite DVOA pass defense against running backs in the passing game. Le’Veon Bell is the only 100-yard rusher so far this season against KC, and outside of Jeremy Hill three touchdown performance, backs have scored only three times against the Chiefs this year. The Bills are expected to fall short of 20 points in this game, but if anyone is going to score, it’s likely to be LeSean McCoy (FD $7,600, DK $5,300). There are just too many solid, affordable running back options to invest heavily in Shady this week.
Pass Catchers: I tried to set aside my bias toward Sammy Watkins (FD $6,800, DK $5,200) and roster him over the past couple of weeks, but was quickly reminded why I’m not a fan of the Clemson product. He’s a special athlete with a great set of hands, but he’s not a complete receiver yet, and isn’t capable of taking over a game at the NFL level on a regular basis. He’s the ultimate GPP wideout, but I won’t even be rostering him in tournaments with a tough matchup against Sean Smith on the schedule this week. The Chiefs have allowed secondary and tertiary receiving options like James Jones, Nate Washington and Mohamed Sanu to have big games this year, as these players rarely see coverage from Smith, so Robert Woods (FD $5,100, DK $3,300) would be my preferred GPP wideout from Buffalo, as the USC alum as been targeted seven or more times in three of his last four games. But even then, there are better matchups to exploit this weekend, and I’ll likely just avoid the Buffalo offense altogether. Kansas City has allowed the fewest points per game to tight ends this season, and have the top DVOA defense against the position, so Charles Clay (FD $5,300, DK $3,500) isn’t in play.
The Takeaway: If Tyrod Taylor starts, Robert Woods could be a sneaky GPP play, but otherwise, there’s not a lot to like here on offense. If Taylor doesn’t start, use the Kansas City defense in any format, as EJ Manuel will struggle to move the ball against this improving defensive unit.
Kansas City Chiefs
Quarterback: Alex Smith (FD $6,600, DK $5,000) has an incredibly mediocre game log, with six straight games under 300 yards passing and seven total touchdowns over that span. He’s been producing on the ground on a pretty consistent basis, but has very, very limited upside as a thrower. The Bills are an average defense against the pass despite two very good corners lining up on the outside, but mediocre matchups don’t mean much for the most mediocre of quarterbacks. Smith’s rushing ability generates a nice floor, and I suppose he could be used in cash games, but there are a couple of great, cheap QB options this week who have higher ceilings and similarly safe floors.
Running Game: This is one of the most important injury situations to watch, as Charcandrick West (FD $6,900, DK $5,300) is looking less and less likely to play, and Spencer Ware (FD $6,100, DK $3,800) would hold a lot of value if West is unable to go. Over the last five weeks, the Bills have allowed four rushing touchdowns to opposing backs, and have seen their run defense DVOA drop to 27th. Spencer Ware appears to have passed Knile Davis (FD $4,500, DK $3,700) on the Kansas City depth chart, and would be in line for the start after his 11-carry, 96-yard, two-touchdown performance against San Diego. The Bills aren’t quite as bad against the run as the Chargers, but for under $4,000 on DraftKings, Ware is virtually a must-play as a healthy home favorite against a non-elite run defense. He should get 15 or more touches and see goal-line work, and is the “free square” for DK cash games if West is ruled out in advance of this weekend’s games.
Pass Catchers: Jeremy Maclin (FD $6,200, DK $4,700) and the other receivers for the Chiefs will have what seem like tough matchups against the highly regarded corners for the Bills, but Danny Amendola, Rishard Matthews, Julian Edelman and Allen Robinson are among the wideouts to post solid fantasy outings against the Buffalo defense this year. Maclin’s workload has disappeared after a few weeks during the first half of the season in which he was targeted ten or more times. His share of the offense just doesn’t justify selection, even if there’s reason for optimism regarding the matchup. Travis Kelce (FD $5,800, DK $4,700), on the other hand, has six or more targets in all but one game this season, and has five or more catches in his last five games, and in eight of ten starts this year. He’s not scoring that often, but as far as workloads for tight ends go, he is among the most consistent. The Bills rank 26th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, with most of those points coming from Rob Gronkowski in Week 2, as the Bills have kept every other tight end under 40 receiving yards (including Gronk in the rematch) since that Week 2 loss. This is even more reason for pessimism regarding the Kansas City passing offense, and I’ll be fading them entirely despite some metrics pointing toward a favorable matchup.
The Takeaway: Spencer Ware is a very good play on FanDuel and a great play on DraftKings if he gets the start, but otherwise, exercise caution with this Kansas City offense. Alex Smith and company don’t have much upside, and this game could turn into a punting competition with a low final score.
Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans
| Oakland Raiders | Tennessee Titans | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 1 p.m. | LP Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 44 | 22.75 | 1.5 | 44 | 21.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 24.0 | 11 | 13 | 23 | Offense | 18.2 | 30 | 23 | 21 | |
| Opp. Defense | 23.3 | 18 | 4 | 17 | Opp. Defense | 25.9 | 27 | 30 | 23 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Tennessee Titans | 22 | 3 | 11 | 26 | Oakland Raiders | 16 | 26 | 19 | 30 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Cooper | 85 | 51 | 4 | 740 | Wright | 46 | 28 | 3 | 364 | |
| Crabtree | 96 | 57 | 5 | 696 | Douglas | 36 | 19 | 1 | 190 | |
| Roberts | 29 | 15 | 2 | 239 | Green-Beckham | 32 | 15 | 2 | 221 | |
| Smith | 10 | 9 | 0 | 46 | Walker | 66 | 53 | 3 | 617 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Dexter McCluster (TEN, Out), Kendall Wright (TEN, Probable)
OAK Matchup Rating: 5.0
TEN Matchup Rating: 3.0
Oakland Raiders
Quarterback: Has the carriage turned back into a pumpkin for Derek Carr (FD $7,400, DK $6,300) and the Oakland offense? Or as we saw yesterday, are the Lions an improving defense, and the Raiders just had a letdown game in Week 11? I tend to believe the latter, and expect a bounce back from Oakland in an appealing home matchup with the Titans. Tennessee continues to be one of the tougher teams to figure out from a fantasy perspective, as their advanced metrics don’t match their fantasy points allowed. Teams have produced in the passing game against the Titans, despite their DVOA and numberFire statistics suggesting they’re decent against the pass and poor against the run. There’s not a lot of talent on the Tennesse defense, but what talent they have is in the front seven with Jurrell Casey, Brian Orakpo and Wesley Woodyard among the notable names in their linebacking and defensive line corps. If Derek Carr has time to throw, he can target the poor corners for the Titans, and with Oakland’s offensive line playing so well this year, I think we can safely assume Carr will be given time to survey the field from the pocket in this one. I will be rostering Carr with confidence in all formats this weekend, and believe he’s a great GPP play after many were burned by him a week ago.
Running Game: The Titans have allowed nine rushing touchdowns on the season, but only five of those have come from running backs. This is part of the reason why their DVOA rank against the run (23rd) doesn’t match up with their seemingly elite points allowed ranking against running backs (31st). The football season is short and results are very volatile, so we may never see the regression to the mean that is due to occur here, but sooner rather than later, a running back is going to have a big game against this defense. After two straight disappointing performances, Latavius Murray (FD $6,600, DK $5,400) is tough to trust in cash games (and there are much better options in his price range), but in a game the Raiders should win, I don’t mind him in tournaments. In Oakland victories this season, Murray has 18, 27, 16, and 21 touches, and three touchdowns. Jonathan Stewart was able to grind out a respectable performance against the Titans in Week 10, and his 22/91/1 stat line is the optimistic expectation for a good game from Murray this weekend.
Pass Catchers: On the season, the Titans have shown a weakness in covering the secondary passing game option for opposing teams, ranking last in DVOA against WR2. However, WR1 like Travis Benjamin, Allen Robinson and DeAndre Hopkins have had respectable games against this defense, as well. This just makes it tougher for us to figure out how to choose between Amari Cooper (FD $6,800, DK $6,800) and Michael Crabtree (FD $6,500, DK $6,400). Their prices have slowly crept toward each other, and now there’s virtually no discount when selecting Crabtree over Cooper. Crabtree has double-digit targets in three of his last four, but Cooper has nine or more targets in three of his last four games. Both had a letdown against the Lions last week, but both have solid matchups this week against the inferior corners for Tennessee. I tend to trust DVOA, and will lean toward Crabtree, but I think mixing up exposure to both makes sense. Clive Walford (FD $4,700, DK $2,500) hasn’t taken over as a full-time tight end in this offense yet, but he’s been targeted in the red zone quite a bit over the past few weeks, and could find some room to work against a defense that’s allowed the sixth-most points to opposing tight ends this year. But with such a small market share in this offense, I will pass on an otherwise enticing matchup.
The Takeaway: Carr, Cooper and Crabtree are the top plays this weekend for the Raiders, who should rebound from a disappointing game against the Lions a week ago. Latavius Murray is in play for tournaments, and those four players are really the only ones worth mentioning on the Oakland offense.
Tennessee Titans
Quarterback: The Raiders were a feel-good story for most of the first half of the season, but their poor defense has caught up with them, and will continue to be a problem as the season draws to a close. Oakland ranks 27th in Football Outsiders’ weighted DVOA rankings, which put more emphasis on recent performances. On the season, the Raiders have allowed the fifth-most points to opposing QBs, and have a below average DVOA against the passing game. Marcus Mariota (FD $7,000, DK $5,500) has scored only once in the last two games, and that was on a rushing attempt and not a throw. His 10 runs over the past two games are encouraging from a fantasy standpoint, but the overall lack of production from the Tennessee offense (especially against a bad defense like Jacksonville) is a big concern. Mariota could have another four-touchdown performance against Oakland, but the chances of a letdown are too strong to trust him in anything but a cheap tournament where you’re looking to be contrarian. Both he and Carr were under 5% owned in most Thursday FanDuel contests, so you can target either of these poor passing defenses with low ownership, but Carr is superior to Mariota in every area but price.
Running Game: Antonio Andrews (FD $5,700, DK $3,700) has been handed the keys to the Tennessee running game, and he’s posted a couple of respectable performances (outside of a tough outing against the Panthers). He hasn’t found the end zone since he was a part-time goal-line back under his previous head coach, and he may have to wait another week to find that elusive rushing touchdown. Oakland has allowed the seventh-most points to opposing backs, but most of the damage has been done through the air, and in two big performances by DeAngelo Williams and Adrian Peterson. Outside of those two backs and the garbage time touchdown spree from Danny Woodhead in Week 7, backs have scored only three times against the Raiders this year, and only one has rushed for more than 70 yards. Andrews doesn’t seem like the kind of back to have an against-the-grain breakout game, and with multiple other backs waiting in the wings behind him, his workload might not remain secure moving forward. I’m sticking to the passing game for Tennessee this week.
Pass Catchers: The Raiders are still terrible against tight ends, and the best player on the Titans’ offense plays tight end. He’s expensive, but you’re going to want Delanie Walker (FD $6,100, DK $5,400) in your lineups this week. Walker has six or more targets in all but two of his starts this year, and faces a defense that has allowed 80+ yards and at least one touchdown to four different tight ends this season. Not every team has a good tight end, but the ones that do (Browns, Bengals, Ravens, Bears, Chargers) were able to find room for their tight ends to work against this defensive unit. Walker is a top play in any format. Kendall Wright (FD $5,300, DK $4,400) looks likely to return to the lineup, and will square off against D.J. Hayden and his “coverage skills” in the slot. It’s a great matchup, and Wright has at least five targets in his last five games. He’s priced well for use in tournaments, but the limited workload means he shouldn’t be considered in cash games. Dorial Green-Beckham (FD $5,400, DK $3,300) is starting to see more work with the offense, but this is a better matchup for the tight end and slot receivers than it is for the outside wideouts, so I will be continuing the “wait and see” approach for DGB.
The Takeaway: Delanie Walker is an elite tight end play this weekend, while Kendall Wright and Marcus Mariota are decent options at their respective positions. Otherwise, there’s not a lot to like on this Tennessee offense that spreads the ball around and generally lacks in talent.
San Diego Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars
| San Diego Chargers | Jacksonville Jaguars | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 1 p.m. | EverBank Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 46.5 | 21.25 | -4 | 46.5 | 25.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 21.3 | 22 | 3 | 30 | Offense | 21.1 | 23 | 16 | 25 | |
| Opp. Defense | 26.8 | 28 | 26 | 9 | Opp. Defense | 28.2 | 31 | 16 | 26 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 29 | 24 | 15 | 23 | San Diego Chargers | 14 | 32 | 7 | 17 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Floyd | 41 | 21 | 3 | 409 | Robinson | 98 | 50 | 7 | 871 | |
| Johnson | 55 | 38 | 2 | 405 | Hurns | 72 | 44 | 7 | 716 | |
| Inman | 28 | 15 | 1 | 221 | Lee | 11 | 4 | 0 | 63 | |
| Gates | 46 | 29 | 2 | 318 | Thomas | 41 | 20 | 2 | 167 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Antonio Gates, Ladarius Green, Malcom Floyd (SD, Questionable)
SD Matchup Rating: 5.0
JAC Matchup Rating: 6.5
San Diego Chargers
Quarterback: Philip Rivers (FD $8,000, DK $6,700) has come crashing down from his record-setting pace to start the season, as the loss of his top wideout and several other key figures on offense limited his production. He had a season-low 178 yards last time out against the Chiefs, and has only one touchdown pass in his last two games. A matchup with the Jaguars is appealing, as Jacksonville ranks 30th in DVOA against the pass and sixth in points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, but I can’t trust Rivers and his lack of targets outside of a GPP lineup or two. This could be a weird weekend of football, and I wouldn’t rule out a big day for the San Diego offense, but I think the more likely scenario is another lackluster day through the air for a player still priced like a 300-yard, multiple-touchdown passer.
Running Game: The Jaguars continue to have one of the league’s elite run defenses, which suits the Chargers just fine, as their offensive line has been injured all year, and their primary runner has struggled to adapt to life in the NFL. Melvin Gordon (FD $5,900, DK $3,800) is definitely out of the question in this tough matchup, and Danny Woodhead (FD $6,100, DK $5,200) has not been receiving consistent enough volume to trust with a heavy investment of DFS capital. If I could guarantee that Woodhead would get ten targets, I’d roster him everywhere against one of the league’s worst pass defenses against running backs, but since he may only see two targets, I’m going to have to pass.
Pass Catchers: It might be for the best that FanDuel removed Malcom Floyd (DK $3,900) from the player pool, because he would be tempting to roster even when considering his lingering injury issues. The Chargers are so thin at wideout that a veteran receiver dealing with a serious shoulder ailment might be their top threat in the passing game. Steve Johnson (FD $5,500, DK $4,500) is the premiere healthy receiver for San Diego, and is a viable tournament option on both sites, while Dontrelle Inman (FD $4,900, DK $3,000) should continue to see a nice workload for such a cheap player. Javontee Herndon (FD $4,500, DK $3,000) would be in play if Floyd is ruled out, but if Floyd plays, Johnson is the top option, and Inman is a secondary play at best.
The Takeaway: This offense has really taken a step back, and it’s tough to roster anyone, even in this favorable matchup. A tournament lineup with Stevie Johnson or Dontrelle Inman is about as much as I want to commit to this team outside of a contrarian stack of the passing game, just in case the Jacksonville defense decides to “out-awful” the San Diego pass offense.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Quarterback: The Chargers are a mess defensively, ranking 20th in points allowed to opposing quarterbacks only because it’s so easy to run against their porous front seven. DVOA notices their terrible pass defense, ranking them 28th overall, which brings Blake Bortles (FD $7,300, DK $5,900) into play. Bortles has thrown 40 or more passes five times this year, and has a touchdown pass in every start. There’s tons of upside, but a relatively low floor, as he’s still a bit inconsistent and turnover prone. The Jaguars will likely follow the blueprint for success against San Diego and run early and often, but Bortles is a passable tournament play as Derek Carr, Matthew Stafford and Josh McCown are among the QBs to throw multiple touchdowns against this defense.
Running Game: T.J. Yeldon (FD $6,500, DK $4,800) has been incredibly average this year, and frustrating to own due to his team’s aversion to using him at the goal line. But much like Justin Forsett, who suffered through bad playcalling at the line of scrimmage, the dam will eventually break, and the opportunities will come for the Jacksonville back. He’s still seeing 15 or more touches per game, and has a couple of 100-yard games under his belt. And since the Chargers hand out rushing fantasy points like candy on Halloween (nearly 28 running back points per game on FanDuel), Yeldon can be expected to turn in a performance close to the ceiling he has shown this year, which is over 100 total yards. He might see a bit of a boost in passing game production against the 32nd-ranked defense against running backs in the passing game, according to Football Outsiders. If he combines 100 yards and a few catches with a touchdown, that’s great value at his price tag. He’s viable for cash games, and in play in tournaments despite his anticipated popularity.
Pass Catchers: Despite an otherwise terrible defense, the Chargers do have two very good corners in Jason Verrett and Patrick Robinson, and that limits the upside for both Allen Robinson (FD $7,900, DK $7,300) and Allen Hurns (FD $7,200, DK $5,800). Only three wideouts have gained more than 80 yards in a game against the Bolts this year, and only six WR touchdowns have been scored against San Diego in 2015. The common thread among the top performers against the Chargers so far (Jeffery, Cooper, Smith, Benjamin) is that they’re all WR1s for their teams, and so even though Verrett shadows opposing WR1, he doesn’t totally shut them down, but instead limits their upside. His high grade at Pro Football Focus comes in spite of a pretty favorable fantasy points per route run allowed figure, so Allen Robinson is a risky but potentially profitable tournament target at wideout, while Allen Hurns is probably best left alone for this week. Julius Thomas (FD $5,300, DK $3,400) is in play against a defense that ranks 11th in points allowed to tight ends and 29th in DVOA against the position, but his inconsistent workload means he’s more of a GPP option.
The Takeaway: T.J. Yeldon is one of the top plays at running back this weekend, while Allen Robinson, Julius Thomas and Blake Bortles are all tournament targets.
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
| Miami Dolphins | New York Jets | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Sunday – 1 p.m. | MetLife Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | 42.5 | 19.5 | -3.5 | 42.5 | 23 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 20.5 | 26 | 15 | 19 | Offense | 23.4 | 14 | 22 | 14 | |
| Opp. Defense | 20.8 | 11 | 11 | 3 | Opp. Defense | 24.9 | 20 | 21 | 31 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| New York Jets | 11 | 8 | 18 | 6 | Miami Dolphins | 20 | 29 | 21 | 19 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Landry | 96 | 64 | 4 | 754 | Marshall | 106 | 62 | 7 | 800 | |
| Matthews | 60 | 43 | 4 | 666 | Decker | 76 | 46 | 7 | 638 | |
| Stills | 36 | 18 | 2 | 331 | Kerley | 26 | 16 | 2 | 152 | |
| Cameron | 52 | 23 | 2 | 289 | Cumberland | 13 | 5 | 0 | 77 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Brandon Marshall (NYJ, Probable), Jarvis Landry (MIA, Questionable)
MIA Matchup Rating: 4.0
NYJ Matchup Rating: 6.0
Miami Dolphins
Quarterback: The Dolphins have looked “better” since making a change at head coach over their bye week, but it wasn’t hard to improve upon the dreadful start to the season in South Florida. The play of Ryan Tannehill (FD $6,900, DK $5,200) has remained fairly consistent regardless of head coach, as the Miami QB has two touchdown passes in six of his ten starts, with a four-touchdown outlier along with a few letdown games. Tannehill is tough to trust even in decent matchups, but going up against a top-ranked defense like the Jets doesn’t set up well for the Texas A&M product. New York ranks 24th in points allowed to opposing QBs, and while they did allow two touchdowns to Tannehill in their last meeting, they also snagged two picks, held him under 200 yards, and limited him to 19 completions on 44 attempts. Avoid Tannehill on a slate with countless other appealing options at QB.
Running Game: Lamar Miller (FD $7,200, DK $6,100) has provided GPP-winning performances on a couple of occasions this season, but is still tough to trust, and is often limited in touches due to game flow or just by the discretion of his coaches. The team is slowly working Jay Ajayi (FD $5,100, DK $3,300) into the running game, and he’ll only draw more and more carries away from Miller, but is unlikely to feature in the passing game as often as his more experienced counterpart. That’s important, because the Jets rank first in DVOA against the run, and 25th against running backs in the passing game. Miller is the back to target in PPR formats if you’re feeling contrarian, but overall, it’s wise to just avoid this running game altogether.
Pass Catchers: Jarvis Landry (FD $7,000, DK $6,600) was followed around by Darrelle Revis in these team’s last meeting, but with Revis out for this game, Landry will have a much better opportunity for fantasy production. Landry was held to four catches for 40 yards in that first game, and but we can expect more from him with a matchup against Buster Skrine likely in his future. There will also be favorable matchups on the outside for Rishard Matthews (FD $6,200, DK $4,400) and Kenny Stills (FD $4,800, DK $3,300) but after the duo combined for five targets in last week’s game, I’m not sure either is worth the risk. If I had to choose one, it would be Matthews, as he’s proven he can step into a bigger role in this offense when called upon, but he’d only be in a cheap tournament lineup or two. Jordan Cameron (FD $5,100, DK $2,500) is interesting on DraftKings, as the Jets are average against tight ends, and he’s coming off of a game with a touchdown scored against Dallas. If Cameron were to find the end zone again and haul in a couple of passes, he could pay off his salary on DK fairly easily. He’s probably the best option for New York, and even then, he’s not a very strong play.
The Takeaway: The Dolphins have a poor matchup against the talented New York defense, but with Darrelle Revis out, Jarvis Landry becomes a very appealing option for tournaments. He will see a healthy amount of targets, and will not face any defenders who can stay with him out of the slot.
New York Jets
Quarterback: Quarterbacks who play against the Dolphins have high upside (three games with 3+ touchdown passes), but also a pretty low floor. The Dolphins have talented players on defense, but also have glaring weaknesses that are often taken advantage of for big plays. According to Pro Football Focus, there are elite players and players below replacement level at nearly every position, as the presence of Ndamukong Suh in the front four is offset by players like Earl Mitchell, and Pro Bowl-caliber safety Reshad Jones plays behind a struggling corner like Jamar Taylor. All of this adds up to a defense that is only as good as its weakest link and the opponent’s ability to take advantage of said weak links. Ryan Fitzpatrick (FD $7,200, DK $5,000) and company aren’t the most efficient or precise passing offense, as we saw in the first meeting between these teams, which featured plenty of success on the ground, but a lackluster day through the air. There are a few obvious options at the bottom of the salary chart at QB this week, and Fitzpatrick isn’t one of them.
Running Game: Chris Ivory (FD $7,000, DK $5,800) had a huge game against the Dolphins in the last meeting between these two teams, but since then, he’s had one more 100+ yard game, and then a bunch of disappointing performances. He’s been held under 50 yards in four of the last five games, and only scored three times over that span. The Dolphins rank 22nd against the run according to DVOA, and have allowed the fourth-most points to the position on FanDuel, so this is a great “get right” matchup for Ivory. But his recent form is concerning, and there are more affordable options in similarly good spots, so I would save Ivory for tournament play.
Pass Catchers: Eric Decker (FD $7,100, DK $5,800) and Brandon Marshall (FD $7,800, DK $6,800) are, as is normally the case, the only names you need to know among pass catchers for New York. Decker has scored a touchdown in seven of nine games this season, and has six or more receptions in five of nine. Five receptions and a touchdown is a pretty nice floor, and it should be attainable against the average coverage skills of Brice McCain. Marshall will see a healthy amount of Brent Grimes, but like Vontae Davis, Grimes has taken a step back this season, and his “shadow coverage” is no longer something to fear, but rather something to acknowledge and proceed with the slightest bit of caution. I would prefer Decker thanks to price and matchup, but Marshall has been very productive this season and is in need of a rebound game after a few limited performances. Only one of these wideouts can be reasonably expected to return value in what should be a low-scoring game, so pick and choose wisely as you build tournament lineups.
The Takeaway: Chris Ivory, Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall are in play for tournaments, but otherwise, the Jets just don’t have a very good or deep offense to target for DFS purposes. Their defense is in play, as they generate plenty of turnovers and should keep the points and yardage totals low for the Miami offense.