NFL Grind Down: Week 3 - Page Three

by LeoTPP Last Updated 2015-09-27 01:56:29

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans

Tampa Bay Buccaneers						Houston Texans
Sunday – 1 p.m.						Reliant Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		6.5	40.5	17				-6.5	40.5	23.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	20.0	22	28	14		Offense	18.5	26	8	24
Opp. Defense	25.5	19	9	26		Opp. Defense	30.5	29	15	19
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Houston Texans	31	14	5	28		Tampa Bay Buccaneers	18	25	21	11
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Evans	3	0	0	0		Hopkins	24	14	2	151
Jackson	16	7	1	105		Shorts	20	10	0	91
Murphy	7	3	0	82		Washington	19	9	0	168
Seferian-Jenkins	10	7	2	139		Fiedorowicz	2	2	0	34

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Austin Seferian-Jenkins (TB, Shoulder, Out), Arian Foster (HOU, Groin, Likely Out), DeAndre Hopkins (HOU, Concussion, Questionable)

TB Matchup Rating: 3.5
HOU Matchup Rating: 6.0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Quarterback: Jameis Winston (FD $6,500, DK $5,400) settled down after a shaky Week 1 to deliver an interception-free, two-touchdown performance in Week 2. The number one overall pick in the 2015 Draft was limited in his role in a victory for the Bucs, throwing only 21 passes and running six times. This week, he faces a Houston defense that ranks seventh in DVOA against the pass since the start of last year, and is in the top 10 in PFF grades in pass coverage and pass rush since Week 1 of 2014. But to start this season, they have looked to be on a bit of a decline, giving up three touchdowns to Alex Smith and then three more (one rushing) to Cam Newton. They still have the best non-quarterback in football (J.J. Watt), and the Bucs have a shaky offensive line. I wouldn’t go all-in on Winston, but if you believe Houston is an average-at-best defense this season, he’s worthy of tournament consideration.

Running Game: Pro Football Focus ranks Doug Martin (FD $6,600, DK $5,100) seventh in the NFL among running backs in “Elusive Rating,” which combines yards after contact and missed tackles forced to figure out how much a back does apart from just taking what is blocked for them. That’s good, because Martin is going to need to create on his own against J.J. Watt and company behind an offensive line ranked dead last in the NFL in run blocking so far this year per PFF. The Bucs are fairly heavy road underdogs, and they will not hesitate to take Martin out of the game in passing situations. He’s not worthy of consideration this week.

Pass Catchers: Mike Evans (FD $7,400, DK $6,600) may finally be back to a full workload, which is only going to further obfuscate the pass catching situation in Tampa. Vincent Jackson (FD $7,200, DK $5,400) has been a red zone favorite for Winston, but Evans presents the same threat inside the opponent’s 20, and will cut into those looks for the veteran. No Bucs receiver, tight end or back has more than seven catches this season, and that’s with Evans registering zeroes across the board. This is a bad spot to try to find a receiver with floor and upside, but Evans is the one to roster if you’re going to search out a play here. He’s simply too talented to not score a touchdown in several games this season, the problem will be identifying which ones.

The Takeaway: The Bucs are not expected to come close to 20 points according to the Vegas odds, and that’s after the oddsmakers watched Houston give up six touchdowns to quarterbacks over the first two weeks. The offense is spread too thin and too passive for any legitimate fantasy interest this week.

Houston Texans

Quarterback: Ryan Mallett (FD $6,300, DK $5,000) is not a good quarterback. But, on the other hand, the Buccaneers are not a good defense. They were able to keep an injured Drew Brees in check last week, but gave up a huge game to Marcus Mariota in Week 1, and were among the worst in the league against the pass a year ago. Still, there are better cheap options this week, and the Bucs’ improved pass rush should put pressure on Mallett, who has completed only one of his 17 passes while facing pressure this season. With uncertainty surrounding the health of his top receiver, there’s no reason to dive this deep into the QB ranks.

Running Game: Mallett is the only Texan to rush for a touchdown so far this season. A trio of Chris Polk (FD $5,300, DK $3,400), Alfred Blue (FD $5,300, DK $3,600) and Jonathan Grimes (FD $4,500, DK $3,100) will split the carries for Houston, and picking which one will run well against a decent Tampa Bay run defense seems like a waste of time. Polk got the more meaningful carries a week ago, but didn’t turn them into anything behind a banged-up offensive line. For being such a strong home favorite, I’m not seeing a lot to like in this Houston lineup.

Pass Catchers: DeAndre Hopkins (FD $7,800, DK $7,400) is dealing with a concussion, and will need to get rushed through the protocol to be ready for Sunday’s action. Going against a team that ranks 31st since the start of last year against opposing teams’ WR1, Hopkins would be a great option in this matchup, even with his less-than-optimal quarterback. If he’s out, Cecil Shorts (FD $5,200, DK $3,500) and Nate Washington (FD $5,300, DK $3,600) would pick up the slack, as both already have a healthy amount of targets in two games. Washington has been more explosive than Shorts so far, so he’d be my preferred option should Nuk be sidelined.

The Takeaway: The Texans are home favorites in a game that should feature plenty of ugly football. A healthy DeAndre Hopkins would be a great choice in any format, and Nate Washington or Cecil Shorts could be used in any format if Hopkins is definitively out. There’s nothing else to get excited about on the Houston side of this game.

San Diego Chargers at Minnesota Vikings

San Diego Chargers						Minnesota Vikings
Sunday – 1 p.m.						Mall of America Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		2.5	44.5	21				-2.5	44.5	23.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	26.0	8	4	15		Offense	14.5	31	31	8
Opp. Defense	18.0	6	12	25		Opp. Defense	26.0	22	14	21
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Minnesota Vikings	9	20	3	23		San Diego Chargers	17	26	2	24
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Allen	21	17	0	182		Wallace	10	9	0	101
Floyd	6	3	1	84		Johnson	6	5	0	37
Johnson	12	11	2	127		Wright	6	2	0	73
Green	12	10	1	121		Rudolph	14	10	1	83

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Ladarius Green (SD, Highly Questionable, Concussion), Antonio Gates (SD, Suspension, Out)

SD Matchup Rating: 5.0
MIN Matchup Rating: 5.0

San Diego Chargers

Quarterback: Philip Rivers (FD $7,700, DK $6,400) is just shy of 34 years old. He’s currently in his tenth season as the starting quarterback for the Chargers. And he’s continuing to do what he’s always done. He’s completing a fairly high percentage of his passes, gaining a lot of yards as a passer, and throwing both touchdowns and interceptions.

So how do we determine what is or is not a good matchup for the San Diego quarterback? Last year, one of his best games came against Seattle, while another great performance came against the Ravens. In other words, quality of opponent didn’t seem to matter that much. Unsurprisingly, he did much better in wins than losses a year ago, and performed better on the whole at home versus on the road, but in this game, he’s in Minnesota and expected to lose according to the Vegas odds. There’s a decent chance he returns volume, but not a lot of upside for a huge game here. Minnesota has been fairly tough against opposing fantasy quarterbacks since the start of last year, and even though matchups don’t really matter for Rivers, it’s enough to push him into “secondary tournament” consideration only.

Running Game: Another week, another instance of Danny Woodhead (FD $6,400, DK $4,400) getting the more fantasy-friendly workload in the San Diego backfield. So far this season, Woodhead has only 19 carries, but seven of these have come in the red zone, and he’s added 13 targets, two of which came inside the opponent’s 20. Melvin Gordon (FD $6,700, DK $5,000) has more carries, but has yet to even touch the ball inside the red zone for the Chargers. Gordon only saw one touch in the final 22 minutes of game time against the Bengals last week, a somewhat competitive loss for San Diego. That’s not a good sign for his usage in anything but a comfortable, expected win for the Chargers.

Minnesota has allowed the ninth-most points to opposing running backs since the start of last season, and Football Outsiders ranks them 26th in DVOA against running backs in the passing game. This is a perfect spot to roster Danny Woodhead yet again, and he’s viable in all formats.

Pass Catchers: With Ladarius Green suffering yet another concussion and looking unlikely to play, Keenan Allen (FD $7,600, DK $6,800) and Steve Johnson (FD $5,900, DK $4,300) will combine with Woodhead to see most of the targets for San Diego. Through two games, Green, Allen, Johnson and Woodhead saw 58 of Philip Rivers 69 throws head their way, and with Green likely out, I can’t imagine those targets will fall outside of those three players. Veteran Malcom Floyd (FD $5,300, DK $3,900) may see an extra red zone look or two, but his volume isn’t trustworthy.

The Vikings allowed Calvin Johnson into the end zone a week ago, but on only 83 yards on 17 targets. No Lions receiver had a productive day against Minnesota, and that falls in line with their performances from a year ago, when they were among the tougher teams to score fantasy points against in the passing game. I like Johnson on DraftKings for his PPR floor (six receptions for 50 yards is nearly hitting his value), but otherwise I’ll be avoiding the pass catchers here and focusing on Woodhead as my target from this game.

The Takeaway: Woodhead’s price or Gordon’s role is going to have to increase before I stop considering him as a core play in cash games and tournaments. Otherwise, I’m not looking to spend daily fantasy salary on anyone on this San Diego offense outside of Steve Johnson, but if you think this is the sort of tough matchup where Philip Rivers will shine (as he did last year), he’s a tournament option at best.

Minnesota Vikings

Quarterback: Teddy Bridgewater (FD $6,800, DK $6,200) has yet to show signs of a second-year breakout, as he’s been careful and under control through his first two starts, throwing for only 384 yards over two games. He threw only 18 passes in the Vikings’ 26-16 win over the Lions, and while he did run for a touchdown, his fantasy output was limited in the grand scheme. This week he faces a San Diego defense that ranks 26th against the pass since the start of last year, according to Football Outsiders, and has started this season ranked 20th through two games. He has thrown for a touchdown in 11 of his last 12 outings, but one touchdown isn’t going to cut it, and he’s never thrown for more than two in a game yet in the NFL. Until we see any sort of upside from Teddy, he’s going to need to be cheaper than this to be a good value play. He’s more of a bargain on FanDuel, and could be considered for a cheap QB option there, but there are better plays to be found in the bargain bin.

Running Game: If you rostered Adrian Peterson (FD $8,900, DK $7,500) last week, you absolutely made the right call. He had over 190 yards from scrimmage and got every opportunity to score, but bad luck and a decent Detroit defense combined to keep him out of the end zone. On the very first drive of the game, Peterson got seven carries, and that set the tone for what Minnesota was looking to do against the Lions. No starting running back has more red zone carries than Peterson so far this season (I say starting, because DeAngelo Williams has more, but he’s now going to play behind Le’Veon Bell), and he’s one of only three Minnesota players to be thrown a pass inside the 20 this season as well. Week 1 was a bad spot, and Week 2 was bad luck. Week 3, against an average run defense as a home favorite, it would be a bad decision to fade “All Day.” He’s one of the two best running backs, and three best overall offensive options, on this week’s slate.

Pass Catchers: With Adrian Peterson expected to dominate this game, and considering the matchup against a San Diego team that is in the bottom-10 in points allowed to opposing wideouts since the start of last year, I’m not going to be targeting any pass catchers in this one. Kyle Rudolph (FD $5,300, DK $3,300) has seen three of the team’s five red zone targets this year, and would represent the only non-AD player from the Vikings I would even remotely consider.

The Takeaway: Don’t fade Adrian Peterson. Feel free to fade pretty much everyone else.

Pittsburgh Steelers at St. Louis Rams

Pittsburgh Steelers						St. Louis Rams
Sunday – 1 p.m.						Edward Jones Dome
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-1	47.5	24.25				1	47.5	23.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	32.0	3	2	18		Offense	22.0	19	22	27
Opp. Defense	27.5	25	13	30		Opp. Defense	23.0	15	28	12
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
St. Louis Rams	5	31	8	27		Pittsburgh Steelers	32	5	25	31
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Archer						Britt	7	4	1	81
Brown	22	18	2	328		Austin	8	3	1	61
Wheaton	11	5	0	122		Quick
Miller	13	10	1	99		Cook	13	10	0	132

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Martavis Bryant (PIT, Suspension, Out), Todd Gurley (STL, Knee, Questionable, likely to play)

PIT Matchup Rating: 8.0
STL Matchup Rating: 5.0

Pittsburgh Steelers

Quarterback: If you rostered Ben Roethlisberger (FD $8,500, DK $7,200) in Week 2, you were happy with the fantasy point return. Ben roasted the 49ers defense for 369 yards and three scores, his first game back over the 20 FanDuel point threshold since the first week of December last season. This week, he’s a slight road favorite against a defense that appears to have talent, but that can still allow some fantasy points to the opposing passing game. However, those points usually don’t go to the quarterback spot, as the Rams rank 25th in points allowed to QBs since Week 1 of last year. Ben is always in play, but with the return of a key player who we’ll discuss in the second section of this team breakdown, he’s a secondary or tertiary tournament play.

Running Game: Le’Veon Bell (FD $8,800, DK $7,500) burst onto the scene last season, following up an impressive rookie campaign with an incredible sophomore season. He contributed in the running game and as a receiver, and was a fantasy beast thanks to his high volume and his solid efficiency. But there is a trend that develops when you look at the quality of the defenses he torched as a runner: Tennessee (29th last year in DVOA against the run), Cincinnati (28th), Carolina (23rd), Cleveland (31st), New Orleans (32nd) and Indianapolis (19th). Those were the six teams (in order of yards allowed) Bell eclipsed 90 yards on the ground against.

He did catch at least five passes in 12 of 16 games last year, and added three receiving touchdowns and over 850 yards as a receiver. That will raise his floor, especially on PPR sites. But a matchup against the Rams will be more reminiscent of his two matchups against the Ravens last year than any of the cupcake games listed above. Against the Ravens, Bell combined for 21 carries for 79 yards and no scores, while catching 10 passes for 86 yards and one touchdown in two games. The Rams rank fifth in DVOA against opposing ground games since the start of last year, and Pro Football Focus grades them as a top-10 unit against the run over that same timeframe. Bell has a high floor due to volume, but I’m going to wait to pick a better spot to invest heavily in him for daily fantasy.

Pass Catchers: I would be insulting your intelligence to give you statistics that say how good Antonio Brown (FD $9,300, DK $8,900) is at being an NFL wide receiver. You know how good he is. But I’ll address your only possible concern about him, which would be a tough matchup against a defense I’ve suggested as the reason to fade Ben and Bell.

Matchups don’t change Brown’s expected floor or limit his ceiling. Those Baltimore games which saw Bell struggle? Brown was still a machine. The Bengals have allowed the third-fewest points to opposing wideouts since the start of last season, and he had 16 receptions for 245 yards and a touchdown in two games against them (and added a punt return score for good measure). Even his most pedestrian performance from a year ago, against the Jets, was good for over 15 DraftKings points and 11 FanDuel points. You won’t be happy with those numbers this week, I understand that, but as a literal floor (barring injury), you can’t find anything better.

The Rams are very good against tight ends, so Heath Miller (FD $5,800, DK $3,500) isn’t on my radar. And while Darrius Heyward-Bey (FD $5,300, DK $3,500) has seen his fair share of targets and is always going to be more likely to break a game-changing play than Markus Wheaton (FD $5,200, DK $3,700), no Pittsburgh receiver outside of Brown has any appeal at all for daily fantasy purposes.

The Takeaway: Road favorites in a competitive game should yield more fantasy options than “target the team’s best receiver who is ridiculously expensive,” but that’s how things line up for Pittsburgh. There are better situations to be found this weekend.

St. Louis Rams

Quarterback: The Steelers score a lot of points. The Steelers don’t defend opposing quarterbacks particularly well. And while I feel a bit burned by recommending him last week and looking quite foolish in doing so, I am going back to the well with Nick Foles (FD $6,500, DK $5,200) this week. Foles is a home underdog signal caller facing a lackluster defense that has generated one turnover and allowed six passing touchdowns with no interceptions so far this season. Granted, those two quarterbacks throwing those touchdowns (Tom Brady and Colin Kaepernick) are more talented than Foles, but a player who is not more talented than Foles (Mike Glennon) was one of five quarterbacks to go for 300 yards and two touchdown passes against the Pittsburgh defense a year ago.

This year’s Steeler defense is hardly a steel curtain, graded out in the bottom-10 of Pro Football Focus’ overall defensive grades, and projected to finish 27th in overall defensive DVOA according to Football Outsiders. I am more than willing to give Foles another chance against that defense, especially at his still low price point. He is competing with a couple of other cheap quarterbacks for the honor of “top punt” at the position.

Running Game: Both Tre Mason (FD $6,500, DK $4,300) and Todd Gurley (FD $6,300, DK $4,700) were absent from the Wednesday injury report. This is great news for the Rams, but terrible news for daily fantasy players. This duo of backs will suit up and run behind a relatively poor offensive line and run against a defense that ranks as tougher than average against the run in terms of fantasy points allowed and Football Outsiders DVOA. This is similar to the situation in Washington, where two backs (one a rookie) both seem to have talent and a decent matchup, but they’re underdogs and in a timeshare. I’ll not be the one risking this situation yet, and will watch closely this week to see how these players are used together before making any decisions.

Pass Catchers: The target leaders for St. Louis this year are a running back who will see fewer snaps if both backs above suit up, a tight end who is possibly the most inconsistent player at his position in football, and a pair of wide receivers who don’t play full time. The one receiver who does play nearly full time, Kenny Britt (FD $5,400, DK $3,800), has only been targeted seven times in two games, while Tavon Austin (FD $5,300, DK $3,700) and Stedman Bailey (FD $4,700, DK $3,000) have seen eight each. Jared Cook (FD $5,400, DK $2,800) and Benny Cunningham (FD $5,400, DK $4,000) (included here because he’s essentially a member of the passing game as the team’s leading target-getter) combine for 26 of the team’s 59 intended throws this year. Cook is a tournament play against a defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends since the start of last year, but otherwise, you’re looking at deep tournament options with the limited volume for these different Ram pass catchers.

The Takeaway: Nick Foles is cheap and in a good matchup, but his pass catchers are spread thin and unreliable, and his running backs are competing for time and coming off of injuries. Stick to the quarterback in this one for tournaments and some cash game exposure, and build a loaded lineup around your cheap signal caller.

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals

San Francisco 49ers						Arizona Cardinals
Sunday – 4:05 p.m.						Univ. of Phoenix Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		6.5	44	18.75				-6.5	44	25.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	19.0	23	13	2		Offense	39.5	1	15	13
Opp. Defense	21.0	11	26	10		Opp. Defense	23.0	15	27	6
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Arizona Cardinals	8	24	15	8		San Francisco 49ers	22	23	27
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Boldin	15	10	1	96		Fitzgerald	17	14	3	199
Smith	10	7	1	131		Floyd	2	1	0	18
Ellington	2	2	0	5		Brown	12	9	1	91
Davis	13	8	0	109		Johnson	4	2	0	100

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Reggie Bush (SF, Calf, Doubtful), Andre Ellington (ARI, Knee, Doubtful)

SF Matchup Rating: 4.0
ARI Matchup Rating: 8.0

San Francisco 49ers

Quarterback: Colin Kaepernick (FD $7,900, DK $6,300) and the 49ers look like they’ll be in a similar position as last week, when the Niners’ QB threw the ball 46 times to keep up with a talented Pittsburgh offense that dropped a big number on the San Francisco defense. He did pretty well in the unusual position of “volume thrower,” and merits consideration as a tournament play this week against an Arizona defense that has talent in coverage, but ranks in the middle of the pack in terms of fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks and DVOA against the pass. They also tend to allow solid rushing games to mobile quarterbacks (Kaepernick and Russell Wilson, specifically), which boosts his floor as he’ll likely take off and run 6-8 times against the Cardinals.

Running Game: In Week 1, we saw how special Carlos Hyde (FD $7,800, DK $5,400) can be as a runner. In Week 2, we saw how quickly that can disappear when game flow and injuries strike. Hyde picked up a 10-yard gain on one of his 13 carries against the Steelers last week, but had only 33 yards on the other 12 attempts, and didn’t play late in the game due to the blowout and a couple of minor injury concerns. He’ll face a similar game script this week against the favored Cardinals, and shouldn’t be on your radar due to a likely limited volume against a very tough run defense.

Pass Catchers: Anquan Boldin (FD $6,600, DK $5,400) is old, and he’s not exciting, but he’s the preferred target for Colin Kaepernick, and will be worthy of your consideration in all formats this weekend. The Cardinals have allowed the 14th most points to opposing wideouts since the start of last year, which seems high for a team with talented defensive backs like Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu. They were a boom-or-bust pass defense last year, giving up monster performances to some wideouts, and shutting down others. This leaves Boldin as a tournament option, as Mathieu could lock him up in the slot, and force Kaepernick to look elsewhere. “Elsewhere” would be Torrey Smith (FD $6,400, DK $5,400) and Vernon Davis (FD $5,400, DK $3,200), the only other players with more than ten targets on the season. Davis gets to face a team that his historically bad against tight ends, and Smith will likely draw the coverage of Patrick Peterson. I’ll go with Davis if choosing between the two, and prefer Boldin over Smith if picking a wide receiver for a tournament lineup.

The Takeaway: The Niners will have to throw to keep up with the Cardinals, who are tough against the run anyways. This means Colin Kaepernick and your preferred receiving option make for an interesting tournament stack.

Arizona Cardinals

Quarterback: While Teddy Bridgewater hardly impressed in Week 1 against the 49ers, Big Ben and the Steelers were able to move the ball at will against this defense. Carson Palmer (FD $8,100, DK $6,600) is off to a hot start, and will look to carry his positive momentum forward into a favorable matchup with a team that has started the year ranked in the bottom 10 against the pass by both Pro Football Focus and Football Outsiders. The pass rush for San Francisco may pose a problem against the Cardinals’ lacking offensive line, but that’s maybe the only word of caution I can offer about Palmer this week. The former USC signal caller has multiple touchdowns in eight of his last nine starts, and has gone for over 300 yards in four of those contests. He’s a great play in any format.

Running Game: With Andre Ellington on the shelf, Chris Johnson (FD $6,200, DK $4,000) got the lead back role for the Cardinals last week, and proceeded to do what Chris Johnson does, and averaged barely over 3.0 yards per carry and failed to break off a run longer than eight yards. David Johnson (FD $6,000, DK $4,000), on the other hand, had 42 yards on five carries, including a touchdown, and also returned a kick for a score. David is the better player, but will likely continue to play a secondary role, and has seen his price jump thanks to early-season touchdowns in part-time duty. He’s a very speculative tournament play. Chris is in play based on his expected volume and red zone opportunities against a team that allowed three scores to DeAngelo Williams last week, but the potential for another 20/70/0 line is very strong.

Pass Catchers: Remember Larry Fitzgerald (FD $6,700, DK $5,800)? That old guy who used to be really good? He’s still pretty good, and is leading the Cardinals in targets, catches, yards, and touchdowns, all by fairly wide margins. He and Carson Palmer are definitely on the same page, and he’s a top play in any format against a 49ers offense that allowed a huge game to Antonio Brown a week ago. John Brown (FD $6,000, DK $5,100) has had a bigger impact on the Arizona offense than his numbers would suggest thanks to his multiple pass interference penalties he’s drawn. He is easily the secondary option in a top-heavy passing game, and is a tournament play this weekend. Those two receivers represent over half of the targets in this offense so far, and are the only passing game options of note.

The Takeaway: The Cardinals are heavy home favorites and are on a roll with their passing game. Target Carson Palmer and one (or both) of his top wideouts in any format.

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