NFL Grind Down: Week 7 - Page Two

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2016-10-23 02:23:55

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Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles

Minnesota Vikings						Philadelphia Eagles
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		-2.5	40	21.25				2.5	40	18.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	23.8	14	24	32		Offense	27.0	4	26	8
Opp. Defense	15.6	3	5	18		Opp. Defense	12.6	1	9	4
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Philadelphia Eagles	1	18	5	3		Minnesota Vikings	7	7	2	14
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Diggs	34	25	1	372		Matthews	37	22	2	344
Thielen	25	20	1	272		Agholor	26	16	1	181
Johnson	15	6	0	92		Green-Beckham	18	11	0	131
Rudolph	37	21	3	236		Ertz	13	10	0	117

Notable injuries and suspensions: Stefon Diggs (MIN WR) – Questionable (Groin)

MIN Matchup Rating: 3.0
PHI Matchup Rating: 2.0

Minnesota Vikings

Quarterback: I am going to save a few words on this game. The Vegas total is 40 points, which is the lowest total of Week 7. Both teams have very solid defenses, and there is no reason why you need to consider Sam Bradford with a plethora of other options out there.

Running Backs: Jerick McKinnon was immensely popular in Minnesota’s last game, but he was largely ineffective and gave way to plodder Matt Asiata for a good portion of the second half. This is a fluid situation that will likely change on a week to week basis, and I have no interest in trying to figure it out against Philadelphia’s solid defense.

Pass Catchers: The Vikings still expect Stefon Diggs to play this week, but I am writing this prior to Wednesday’s practice report (he did not practice on Monday). He always has upside if he plays, so he would be in the conversation at wide receiver even though I don’t love this game. Should Diggs sit out, Adam Thielen is coming off a 7/127/1 game two weeks ago against the Texans and could be used as a value option. Kyle Rudolph struggled against the Texans but remains a favorite target for Bradford. This is the only area of this game where I am really interested in any players.

The Takeaway: Should you look anywhere in this game, make it with a Minnesota pass catcher. If Stefon Diggs is fully cleared, he provides some risk/reward upside at wide receiver. If Stefon Diggs is not cleared, Adam Thielen is an intriguing value target. Don’t sleep on Kyle Rudolph after just one poor game, as he is a favorite target for Sam Bradford. Don’t go overboard, though, against a solid Philadelphia defense.

Philadelphia Eagles

Quarterback: The Eagles have a very low team total of just 18.75 points this week, which is very eye-opening for a home team. It tells you just how good the Minnesota defense is, and Carson Wentz has looked very pedestrian over the last two games. Every young quarterback goes through ups and downs, and Wentz will likely be fine in the long run, but I wouldn’t expect success against what could be the best defense in the NFL.

Running Backs: The biggest mystery of 2016 just might be the Eagles’ usage of their running backs. The narrative continues to be that Ryan Mathews is their guy, but here is the snap count from last week: Darren Sproles – 23; Ryan Mathews – 11; Wendell Smallwood – 10; Kenjon Barner – 8. Run away. Run far, far away from this situation. It’s not going to burn you in the long term.

Pass Catchers: Minnesota has an elite defense that ranks second in DVOA vs. the pass. There is no reason to attempt to guess whether Jordan Matthews, Zach Ertz, or Nelson Agholor will wake up this week.

The Takeaway: Can we move on to the next game? Minnesota’s defense is the closest thing you will get to an elite fantasy play here.

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals

Cleveland Browns						Cincinnati Bengals
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		9.5	46	18.25				-9.5	46	27.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	18.8	26	20	11		Offense	18.2	29	5	24
Opp. Defense	24.2	20	15	20		Opp. Defense	29.3	29	24	27
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Cincinnati Bengals	25	23	7	28		Cleveland Browns	30	22	18	32
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Pryor	59	33	3	413		Green	62	42	2	606
Hawkins	24	15	1	174		LaFell	37	23	3	289
Louis	23	13	0	146		Boyd	28	19	0	242
Barnidge	33	24	0	295		Eifert

Notable injuries and suspensions: Corey Coleman (CLE WR) – Out (Hand) / Terrelle Pryor (CLE WR) – Questionable (Hamstring) / Tyler Eifert (CIN TE) – Questionable (Back)

CLE Matchup Rating: 3.5
CIN Matchup Rating: 8.0

Cleveland Browns

Quarterback: The Browns offense continues to look okay with Cody Kessler at the helm, but Vegas still isn’t buying in. The Browns have one of the lowest team totals of the week, and they are projected to struggle on the road against the Bengals. The fact that the total is as low as it is surprises me, given that Kessler threw for 336 yards and a pair of scores last week on the road against Tennessee. Cincinnati has some talented defensive players, but they have been surprisingly poor defending the pass this year. Vontaze Burfict continues to act like a fool and you never know when Adam Jones will come with his head on straight. I have to respect the low total here, and the fact remains that the Browns are a dreadful, winless football team that might be missing their best pass catcher this week.

Running Backs: A few weeks back, there was a lot of noise out there about how good the Browns were performing on the ground. That noise has quickly died down, as Isaiah Crowell has a total of 22 carries for 38 yards over the last two games combined. That’s not good. Crowell saw 38 snaps last week compared to 32 for Duke Johnson, and this has the looks of a 50/50 split moving forward. Avoid.

Pass Catchers: Terrelle Pryor is the only worthwhile target here, as he saw a whopping 13 targets against the Titans. He parlayed those into nine grabs for 75 yards and a pair of scores, but he is not practicing this week with a hamstring issue and will be questionable to doubtful for this game. That leaves Ricardo Louis and Andrew Hawkins to catch passes. Now, you can start to see why the total is so low for the Browns. I can’t trust Gary Barnidge given his lack of production so far this year; he has yet to catch a touchdown pass.

The Takeaway: With Terrelle Pryor possibly out for this game, the Browns are extremely thin at the skill positions. The running back situation is a mess, and the Browns are going to struggle to move the football. Bump up your projections for the Cincinnati defense this week, even though they haven’t been an elite unit over the first six weeks of the season.

Cincinnati Bengals

Quarterback: Andy Dalton has been putting up his usual steady if unspectacular numbers this season, with six passing touchdowns and two interceptions in six games. His quarterback rating is about eight points above his career average, but the upside just hasn’t been there. He has yet to throw for 300+ yards and multiple scores in the same game. Of course, if that is going to happen, this would be the matchup for that to happen. Cleveland is a bad team defensively, their best defensive back can’t stay healthy in Joe Haden, and Marcus Mariota went wild against them a week ago. You can’t play Dalton at $8,100 on FanDuel, but he is another guy that becomes more viable on DraftKings at $6,000.

Running Backs: Jeremy Hill is banged up, and the Bengals are using Giovani Bernard as more than just the “passing down guy” this season. Bernard more than doubled Hill in snaps last week, and Bernard has quietly been productive along the way. Assuming he continues to play 60-70% of the snaps, he is a weekly lock for four or five receptions to go along with his rushing yards. He’s not the most productive runner on a per touch basis, but the passing game upside makes him more attractive in full PPR formats. Give Bernard a look on DraftKings here (apparently that’s where we want our Bengals exposure this week)!

Pass Catchers: Brandon LaFell has scored three touchdowns over the last two games, but don’t expect that production to continue. He caught just two passes for 13 yards last week, so he didn’t really produce much despite finding the end zone with one of them. This receiving corps remains headlined
by A.J. Green, who has seen at least eight targets in every game this year and has as much upside as any receiver on the board. He has struggled a bit in back to back tough road games against Dallas and New England, but this is a prime “get right” spot at home against the Browns. Green is the #2 overall wide receiver on my board this week and should be considered in all formats.

The Takeaway: Don’t be afraid to get some Cincinnati exposure here in a great home matchup against the woeful Browns defense. Andy Dalton is more favorably priced on DraftKings, Giovani Bernard gets a boost with his receiving ability on DraftKings, and A.J. Green is in play for all sites and formats. Green should have one of his better games of the year, and hopefully he can approach that 10/173/1 line he put up against Miami three weeks back.

Washington Redskins at Detroit Lions

Washington Redskins						Detroit Lions
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		1	49	24				-1	49	25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	23.7	15	7	12		Offense	25.0	12	13	26
Opp. Defense	25.5	22	22	21		Opp. Defense	23.7	18	16	28
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Detroit Lions	32	10	27	29		Washington Redskins	10	25	10	15
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Jackson	41	22	1	333		Tate	41	25	1	299
Garcon	43	28	1	307		Jones	47	29	4	529
Crowder	35	24	3	283		Boldin	37	29	3	244
Reed	46	33	2	316		Ebron	25	18	1	210

Notable injuries and suspensions: Jordan Reed (WAS TE) – Out (Concussion) / DeSean Jackson (WAS WR) – Questionable but expected to play (Shoulder) / Eric Ebron (DET TE) – Out (Ankle) / Theo Riddick (DET RB) – Out (Ankle)

WAS Matchup Rating: 8.5
DET Matchup Rating: 7.5

Washington Redskins

Quarterback: The Redskins remain a pass-first team. Even though they raced out to a solid lead last week against the Eagles, they still had a 34-33 pass-run ratio, and they are not afraid to let Kirk Cousins sling it. That should be especially true this week against a Lions defense that couldn’t even stop Case Keenum a week ago. Washington has rattled off four wins in a row, yet nobody seems to be talking about Cousins. Of course, his numbers have been relatively modest this year, but modest has the potential to become great on turf against the Lions. Cousins is ridiculously priced at $5,900 on DK and $7,300 on FD, making him cheaper than Marcus Mariota, Andy Dalton, and Tyrod Taylor. He’s facing the Lions. Of all the value quarterbacks, Cousins is quite easily my favorite pick of the bunch this week.

Running Backs: I was legitimately surprised when I saw that Chris Thompson played six more snaps than Matt Jones last week. Jones dominated the rushing attempts as he plays on the early downs, and the game flow set last week’s game up as a Jones game. He turned in a 135 yard day on 16 carries, but a big chunk of that came on a 57 yard scamper. This is still a time share, and we don’t need to chase the points with Jones this week. I expect Washington to put this game on Cousins’ shoulders, and I will target the passing game.

Pass Catchers: Detroit ranks second from the bottom in DVOA against the pass, ahead of only the Jets. Teams have moved the ball on them with ease, and that is especially true through the air. We still don’t know about the status of Jordan Reed, and that will make a big difference in who we target here. You can always look to DeSean Jackson for his big play upside, while Cousins seems to like throwing the ball to Jamison Crowder in the red zone. If Reed sits out again, the biggest bump on mid-range routes would appear to go to Pierre Garcon, who caught six passes and saw eleven targets last week. I will update this situation as news warrants with Reed, but there are certainly targets we can use here.

SATURDAY UPDATE – Reed has been ruled out, which makes our life easier. DeSean Jackson is also a bit banged up, but he is going to play. I still like him for GPPs. Jamison Crowder is in play for every format, while Pierre Garcon is a safe low-end cash game play with Reed out.

The Takeaway: Don’t be fooled by the big game from Matt Jones, as he still saw fewer snaps than Chris Thompson despite the Redskins playing with a lead for much of the game against the Eagles. The time share is too risky to trust. The passing game is where it’s at, and I love Kirk Cousins as a value quarterback play this week. The receivers are all in play, but much of the analysis revolves around whether or not Jordan Reed will play. Check back later for an update on his status and the fantasy impacts. On Thursday lock contests, I would stick with DeSean Jackson in GPPs or Jamison Crowder in cash games.

Detroit Lions

Quarterback: Of course it wasn’t pretty defensively, but the Lions squeaked out their second consecutive victory against the Rams in Week 6. Matthew Stafford was virtually flawless, throwing for 270 yards and four touchdowns without a turnover in the game. The Detroit backfield is all sorts of messy right now, with Theo Riddick and Dwayne Washington injured and uncertain to return this week. Expect the Lions to lean on Stafford’s arm once again in this one, and he is plenty capable of putting up numbers at home. Cousins is slightly cheaper and has the better matchup, so I prefer him. That’s not to exclude Stafford from the equation, however.

Running Backs: This is where you can attack the Redskins, as they rank 31st in DVOA against the run. The problem is that we have no idea what the running back rotation will look like this week. Zach Zenner out-snapped Justin Forsett 48 to 12 last week and would be the preferred option should Riddick and Washington sit out again. Check back later in the week for some clarity here.

Pass Catchers: The absence of Riddick and Eric Ebron opened up plenty of targets for other options, and Golden Tate finally took advantage with his first big game of the year, as did Anquan Boldin. They put up 8/165/1 (Tate) and 8/60/1 (Boldin), while Marvin Jones was held to two catches for ten yards. Tate still has a very affordable price tag and will be in play once again should the other options remain sidelined. Jones has boom/bust potential every week and would be a fine GPP choice or pairing with Stafford.

The Takeaway: This game could be a sneaky shootout. It has a Vegas total of 49 points and a one point spread in favor of Detroit. You could do worse than taking a few players on each side of this game. Detroit’s prospects for fantasy purposes are in a bit of limbo right now until we find out the injury status of Theo Riddick, Dwayne Washington, and Eric Ebron. If they all remain sidelined, bump up Zach Zenner and Golden Tate once again this week. As always, check back for an update once we get some clarity on the injury reports.

SATURDAY UPDATE – Washington will play, while Ebron and Riddick remain sidelined. With Josh Norman likely to track Jones more often than not, Boldin and Tate get the bump in fantasy value, as they did a week ago.

Oakland Raiders at Jacksonville Jaguars

Oakland Raiders						Jacksonville Jaguars
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		1	49	24				-1	49	25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	25.3	11	14	13		Offense	20.2	21	17	31
Opp. Defense	25.4	21	7	14		Opp. Defense	27.2	24	32	30
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Jacksonville Jaguars	21	11	25	4		Oakland Raiders	28	26	28	26
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Cooper	60	36	1	585		Robinson	47	24	3	287
Crabtree	48	31	5	365		Hurns	38	20	1	300
Roberts	28	15	3	134		Lee	30	22	0	230
Walford	21	15	1	150		Thomas	21	13	1	176

Notable injuries and suspensions: Latavius Murray (OAK RB) – Questionable (Toe) / Julius Thomas (JAX TE) – Questionable (Ankle)

OAK Matchup Rating: 6.0
JAX Matchup Rating: 7.0

Oakland Raiders

Quarterback: Derek Carr found the sledding extremely tough against the Chiefs last week, and it won’t get any easier against an under-rated Jacksonville secondary. Jalen Ramsey and Prince Amukamara are solid corners, and the Jaguars are no pushover against the pass. The DVOA agrees, as they rank 8th against the pass but just 27th against the run. It will be strength against strength and weakness against weakness here.

Running Backs: DeAndre Washington was in for 32 of 46 offensive snaps last week, but he totaled just 49 yards on the ground and did not catch a pass. Oakland was in full catch up mode, too, so we don’t know much about how the usage would have gone in a close game. The potential return of Latavius Murray also clouds the status here. In any event, this is a time share that we unfortunately can’t peg very well even in a favorable matchup against Jacksonville’s weak rush defense.

FRIDAY UPDATE – Murray is expected to return this week, which makes the situation a clear hands-off until we see how the workload plays out with everyone healthy.

Pass Catchers: Ramsey shadowed Alshon Jeffery last week, and he played very well in the second half after getting abused a bit in the first half. This included a big pass break up on fourth down to seal the win for the Jags. I expect Ramsey to shadow Amari Cooper this week, and that takes Cooper off my radar. Yes, I respect Ramsey that much. Michael Crabtree doesn’t have a great matchup, either, and I just don’t like how this game sets up for the Raiders. By the way, it’s also a cross country trip for a west coast team playing an east coast team in a 1:00 PM start. Yuck.

The Takeaway: I will be fully fading the Raiders this week. I don’t like this spot, and I don’t like the individual matchups. There are better plays out there.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Quarterback: Oakland has some talent on defense, but they have struggled to put it together this year. Blake Bortles has some talent at quarterback, but he has struggled to take the next step this year. Who will win out in this game? It’s tough to peg, and I have to caution against over-rating Bortles. I thought he would become a mid-to-upper echelon quarterback this year, but it simply hasn’t happened. The matchup is a good one against a poor pass defense, but there isn’t much reason to target Bortles outside of a GPP flier here. I much prefer Kirk Cousins if you are taking the value to mid-range quarterback play this week.

Running Backs: T.J. Yeldon continues to play a few more snaps than Chris Ivory, but the running game continues to be ineffective in Jacksonville. They rank 28th as a team with 3.3 yards per carry this year, and they rank 31st as a team with 71 rushing yards per game. Throw in the time share and you have an easy pass. There’s too much risk with the Jacksonville running backs.

Pass Catchers: Allen Hurns was the primary target for Bortles last week, as he saw 11 of Bortles’ 33 targets last week. Marqise Lee randomly caught six balls for 61 yards, and the only touchdown catch was by Arrelious Benn. Julius Thomas has not been heavily involved in recent weeks and has been a bit banged up, too. Allen Robinson and Hurns continue to play the most snaps, and they are the two guys you can target on a weekly basis. Both are decent plays here, but I can’t trust Hurns just yet. This could be the game where Robinson breaks out with 125 yards and a pair of touchdowns. I like him a lot in GPP formats this week.

The Takeaway: Jacksonville has been a disappointment offensively this year, but the Bortles-to-Robinson connection could go nuts at any point. This would be the matchup for that to happen, as Oakland is poor against the pass. I won’t target Bortles, but I am fine with Allen Robinson as a receiver play in this matchup. The running game is hands off barring an injury.

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