NFL Grind Down: Week 7 - Page Two

by LeoTPP Last Updated 2015-10-23 20:08:45

New Orleans Saints at Indianapolis Colts

New Orleans Saints						Indianapolis Colts
Sunday – 1 p.m.						Lucas Oil Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		4.5	52	23.75				-4.5	52	28.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	22.3	17	2	28		Offense	21.0	23	15	18
Opp. Defense	24.5	18	27	20		Opp. Defense	27.3	28	24	30
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Indianapolis Colts	24	19	30	18		New Orleans Saints	31	28	8	28
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Cooks	45	29	1	363		Hilton	59	33	1	456
Snead	38	26	1	436		Johnson	33	16	2	163
Colston	28	18	0	200		Moncrief	49	30	4	347
Watson	33	25	2	266		Fleener	28	19	1	168

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Marques Colston (NO, Questionable), T.Y. Hilton (IND, Questionable)

NO Matchup Rating: 7.5
IND Matchup Rating: 8.0

New Orleans Saints

Quarterback: Unfortunately, I’m expected to do more than say “Play everyone from this game,” in this article, but that’s the quick and easy piece of advice from this one. There are awesome matchups all over the board for players who are at reasonable price points. The stat gurus at numberFire rank these two defenses as among the ten worst in the NFL, and Football Outsiders’ DVOA ranks the pass defenses 32nd (New Orleans) and 26th (Indianapolis). That Indy pass defense will face a seemingly healthier Drew Brees (FD $8,400, DK $7,000), who has seen his completion percentage jump way up since taking some time off to nurse a hurting shoulder. In his first two starts, Brees failed to complete more than 64% of his passes, but after sitting out Week 3, he’s come back and completed over 76% in each of his last three contests. The Colts have one of the weakest pass rushes in the league, and are unlikely to challenge even a declining Brees in this game. Fire up the New Orleans quarterback in tournaments, but there are better point per dollar options with better track records this season for cash games.

Running Game: Mark Ingram (FD $7,600, DK $6,300) got a season-high 20 carries last week against the Falcons, and while he was unable to break any big plays, he did punch in two touchdowns further proving that he’s the top red zone option on this offense. No other runner has more than four attempts inside the opponent’s 20, and only one receiver has more targets in the red zone than Ingram. Stop waiting for C.J. Spiller (FD $5,300, DK $3,300) to become relevant again, and roll with the New Orleans back who gets volume, in a matchup that favors a back who can get it done through the air and on the ground. Over the past three weeks, three backs have combined for over 100 yards from scrimmage against the Colts, and if Ingram does that on top of getting his normal allotment of red zone touches, he could have a big game.

Pass Catchers: Since Drew Brees returned from his injury, three receivers have received 20 or more targets. Willie Snead (FD $6,500, DK $4,300) and Brandin Cooks (FD $6,700, DK $5,500) both have 22, while Benjamin Watson (FD $5,300, DK $3,300) has 20. The next closest receiver or tight end is Marques Colston (10 targets), who is dealing with an injury and may not play. He’s not worthy of consideration even if he does suit up. Cooks, Snead and Watson are all viable options, with Snead preferred on DraftKings with his higher catch rate and lower price on the PPR site, while Cooks is a fine bargain play on FanDuel, where a touchdown and a handful of catches would be a great return on investment. As for the question of “Who will be covered by Vontae Davis?” the answer is more than likely simply “whoever lines up on the left.” At any time, the Saints can move any of their receivers into the slot, a position Davis very, very rarely goes, to get away from the star corner. Since Week 1, Davis hasn’t shadowed anyone full-time, per PFF, so don’t get scared off by his presence. As for Watson, his breakout against Atlanta may have earned him more looks in the offense moving forward (especially if Colston is out), but don’t expect another 12 targets for a guy who had no more than five in a game previously. He’s still a viable tight end play against a weak pass defense, however.

The Takeaway: Brees, Ingram, Snead, Cooks and Watson are all in play for what should be a high-scoring, fun game to watch. I would favor Snead on PPR sites, Cooks on standard scoring sites, and Brees anywhere you want to stack him up with a receiver of choice.

Indianapolis Colts

Quarterback: For every good matchup profiled on the New Orleans offense, there’s a better one on the Indianapolis side. That starts at quarterback, as Andrew Luck (FD $8,900, DK $7,600) gets to face the league’s worst pass defense according to Football Outsiders. They have only two interceptions on the season, both off of Sam Bradford, and have allowed multiple touchdowns to every quarterback they’ve faced who hasn’t been benched for Matt Cassel. Andrew Luck has not been benched for Matt Cassel. Luck bounced back with a big game coming off of a shoulder injury (sound familiar?) with three touchdowns against the Patriots, and should do more of the same in a great matchup this weekend against New Orleans. Luck will likely be the highest scoring quarterback this weekend, and as such, he’s a great foundation for any lineup in any format.

Running Game: Frank Gore (FD $7,100, DK $4,900) has 15 or more touches in every game since Week 1, and while he’s not picking up a ton of yards on the ground or through the air, he is at least holding down a secure role as the team’s starting tailback and red zone workhorse. After they stopped pretending that Josh Robinson could help out with running duties inside the opponent’s 20, it’s been pretty much all Gore in those situations. The New Orleans defense has allowed the 11th-most points to opposing backs this year, and ranks 23rd in the league against the run according to Football Outsiders. He’s a better tournament pivot from the chalky plays at his position than he is a cash game play this week.

Pass Catchers: T.Y. Hilton (FD $7,700, DK $6,500) and Donte Moncrief (FD $6,500, DK $5,200) are way out in front of the targets race for the Colts, and won’t be looking back anytime soon. Andre Johnson (FD $5,700, DK $4,300) saw a big number of targets to start the season, and then had his two-touchdown game against the Texans, but otherwise is not on the same level as his younger counterparts. Johnson hasn’t seen a red zone target since the game against the Texans, which saw him receive three of his five looks inside the opponent’s 20 on the season. Hilton leads the team in targets in the red zone, with Moncrief the only other player with more than three red zone looks outside of Hilton and Johnson. but Hilton will also likely see a lot of coverage from Delvin Breaux, who PFF grades out as the tenth-best corner in the NFL right now. I much prefer Moncrief. Dwayne Allen (FD $5,000, DK $2,700) has apparently evaporated from the passing game, but it’s impossible to trust Coby Fleener (FD $5,100, DK $3,000) and there are much better options available this week.

The Takeaway: Moncrief is a cash game option, while Luck, Gore and Hilton are all popular but viable tournament targets. This game has a high total and should be played at a high tempo. Don’t be shy, and feel free to stack both sides in a tournament.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions

Minnesota Vikings						Detroit Lions
Sunday – 1 p.m.						Ford Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-2.5	44.5	23.5				2.5	44.5	21
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	19.2	29	31	14		Offense	20.0	26	4	32
Opp. Defense	28.7	29	23	26		Opp. Defense	16.6	2	12	19
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Detroit Lions	23	25	23	23		Minnesota Vikings	4	7	11	22
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Wallace	33	22	1	256		Johnson	61	38	2	488
Johnson	8	6	0	46		Tate	56	32	1	318
Diggs	19	13	0	216		Moore	28	19	2	228
Rudolph	28	16	2	113		Ebron	23	15	2	179

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Charles Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Mike Wallace (MIN, Probable), Eric Ebron, Theo Riddick (Questionable, DET)

MIN Matchup Rating: 5.5
DET Matchup Rating: 3.0

Minnesota Vikings

Quarterback: The Vikings and Lions will meet again for the second time in the past month (plus a few days) as the division rivals close out their season series before Halloween. This means another shot at the 29th-ranked DVOA pass defense for Teddy Bridgewater (FD $6,600, DK $5,100), who managed only 153 yards and a touchdown against them in their last meeting. The Vikings dominated the first game on the ground, and by forcing turnovers, a recipe they’ll likely try to repeat in Week 7. Bridgewater has seemingly taken a step back, failing to build upon his more promising performances from his rookie season, and just does not appear to be the sort of quarterback we want to target for daily fantasy football. Even in a good matchup, I’m staying away.

Running Game: Adrian Peterson (FD $8,900, DK $7,600) did everything but score against the Lions in these team’s first meeting, as the future Hall of Fame back had 134 rushing yards and 58 receiving yards, and also received an insane 12 red zone carries. For perspective, Dion Lewis, T.J. Yeldon, Matt Jones, Danny Woodhead, Doug Martin and Justin Forsett all have 12 red zone carries on the season. And while we shouldn’t expect Peterson to see such a crazy volume in the red zone again this week, his touchdown rate in those situations will eventually balance out as well. So far this season, he’s scored only once on 23 attempts inside the opponent’s 20, whereas in 2013, he scored eight times on 39 such carries. The Lions have allowed the tenth-most points to opposing backs this year, including 100-yard games from Peterson and Chris Johnson. Peterson is an option in any format this weekend.

Pass Catchers: Thanks to injuries and general ineffectiveness among receivers ahead of him on the depth chart, Stefon Diggs (FD $5,800, DK $4,200) has been given his chance, and immediately thrust into a fairly large role in the Minnesota offense. Prior to Week 4, he’d never been thrown a pass in an NFL game, and since then he has nine targets in each of his first two appearances, hauling in over 200 yards in passes in those games. The injured Charles Johnson (FD $4,700, DK $3,000) is set to return, but he may not be taking any targets away from Diggs, considering his target total through three games (8) was lower than either of Diggs’ single-game totals. Diggs, Johnson and Mike Wallace (FD $5,400, DK $4,200) will all see their fair share of time on the field, and based on what we’ve seen so far this season, Diggs and Wallace are the two you’d like to target if you trust that Bridgewater can get some good passes out and move the ball through the air. Tight ends have scored four touchdowns against the Lions this season, and Kyle Rudolph (FD $5,000, DK $3,100) is good at scoring touchdowns. The problem is, he may not do much else even if he does catch a touchdown pass, so consider him a risky tournament play at best.

The Takeaway: Adrian Peterson will get another shot at a defense he shredded just a few weeks ago, and so will a Minnesota passing game that lacks the ceiling we’d like to see, even in a good matchup. Stick to the ground in this one.

Detroit Lions

Quarterback: Matthew Stafford (FD $7,400, DK $5,700) bounced back from a benching in Week 5 to deliver a huge stat line in Week 6, throwing for over 400 yards and four touchdowns against the Bears. Unfortunately, he doesn’t get to play the Bears again, and instead gets to face the Vikings, who have only allowed a quarterback to throw for multiple touchdowns in a game once this season. The good news, however, is that the quarterback in question was Matthew Stafford. The Detroit signal caller picked up 286 yards on a whopping 53 attempts against Minnesota last time out, with two touchdowns. This pass defense is just outside the top ten according to Football Outsiders and numberFire, so it’s not a cake walk, but we’ve already seen Stafford post a decent score against this defense. I’m just not sure he’s worth the risk again this week outside of a few tournament lineups.

Running Game: Even in their first win of the season in Week 6, the Lions failed to get anything going on the ground. The team is going to stick with a rotation of running backs, with Ameer Abdullah (FD $5,700, DK $4,000) and Joique Bell (FD $5,500, DK $3,100) both looking likely to suit up in this one and get a bulk of the carries. Theo Riddick (FD $5,200, DK $3,400) is nursing an injury, but if he plays, he’s the only back worth considering, mainly thanks to his defined role in the passing game. While Bell and Abdullah split carries and are generally ineffective on the ground, Riddick receives a healthy amount of targets in the passing game for a bargain price on PPR sites. And since the Vikings rank 28th in the league at defending running backs in the passing game according to Football Outsiders, the Lions may try to test the Vikings in that department. However, no back has seen more than four targets against Minnesota yet this season, so we don’t have a big sample size to work with here. I’ll likely just avoid this situation entirely.

Pass Catchers: You may have heard of Calvin Johnson (FD $8,400, DK $7,700). He’s a very good football player. You should strongly consider selecting him in fantasy football. The man known as Megatron picked up 166 yards and a touchdown in his last game, and was the recipient of 17 targets in the first meeting between these two teams. Even if Matthew Stafford doesn’t throw the ball 50 times again, we can still expect 10-12 targets for Johnson against a decent pass defense, but one that lacks a corner that can shut the All-Pro wideout down. Golden Tate (FD $6,700, DK $5,200) will draw the slot coverage of Captain Munnerlyn more often than not, which according to PFF means he’s got the fifth-best corner in the league tracking him for most of this game. I’ll pass. Lance Moore (FD $5,400, DK $3,500) appears to be carving out a nice role for himself as the third option in the passing game, and while we shouldn’t expect his touchdown streak to continue indefinitely, I could see him scoring again this week, and his price has yet to get out of hand, even after two good performances. He’s worthy of a tournament roster spot. Eric Ebron (FD $5,100, DK $3,000) is looking likely to return to action this week, and while he saw 10 targets against the Vikings in these team’s first meeting, he had 13 total targets in his other three games, and his role may not be as clear coming off of a multi-week injury. Still, he found the end zone twice in his first two games this season, and the Vikings did allow Travis Kelce to pick up 88 yards last weekend. You can do worse with your ultra-contrarian picks at tight end this week.

The Takeaway: Calvin Johnson and Lance Moore are both worthy of consideration, and Eric Ebron deserves a glance as you scroll through the tight ends, but otherwise, I’ll be limiting my exposure to the Detroit offense. The Vikings are tough against the pass, and the Lions don’t have an established running game worth targeting, so finding fantasy production in this one will be difficult outside of picking the Lions’ best player and assuming he’ll continue to play a major role in the offense.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs

Pittsburgh Steelers						Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday – 1 p.m.						Arrowhead Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		**	**	**				**	**	**
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	24.2	8	18	5		Offense	21.2	22	13	17
Opp. Defense	26.5	24	25	11		Opp. Defense	18.0	5	28	7
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Kansas City Chiefs	29	10	32	6		Pittsburgh Steelers	19	3	20	29
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Archer						Maclin	56	39	1	526
Brown	58	40	2	547		Wilson	13	6	1	82
Bryant	8	6	2	145		Thomas	13	8	1	73
Miller	22	17	1	168		Kelce	41	29	2	416

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Ben Roethlisberger, Michael Vick (PIT, Doubtful), Jeremy Maclin (KC, Questionable)

PIT Matchup Rating: 6.0
KC Matchup Rating: 4.0

Pittsburgh Steelers

Quarterback: What we do at this position will obviously be determined by the status of Ben Roethlisberger (FD $8,400, DK $6,800). Mike Tomlin has said multiple times that he’s planning on having Landry Jones (FD $6,000, DK $5,100) start, but if Big Ben can play, Big Ben is going to play. There’s a healthy price and expectation difference between these two quarterbacks, and it also will have an impact on how we approach the receivers. If Ben starts, he’s a tournament pivot from Luck, Brees and Palmer, and if Jones starts, he’s a viable punt play, but not for cash games. There’s a reason the Steelers signed Michael Vick instead of keeping Jones in the backup QB spot to start the season. Teddy Bridgewater is the only quarterback to fail to throw for either 300 yards or multiple touchdowns (if you combine the “Houston quarterbacks” into one, mediocre player) against this Kansas City pass defense, which ranks 28th in DVOA against the pass.

Running Game: Le’Veon Bell (FD $8,900, DK $8,400) has picked up right where he left off, seeing a healthy volume as the top back for the Steelers. His passing game involvement disappeared against the Cardinals, but that’s to be expected with such an uncertain quarterback situation. A week of working with Landry Jones in practice, or the return of Big Ben, should see his normal 5-8 targets return, in addition to over 20 carries and a healthy amount of red zone work. The Chiefs are a solid run defense, ranking ninth in DVOA against the ground game. They’ve yet to allow a single back to rush for more than 71 yards in a game, and shut down Adrian Peterson last week. Bell is never a bad play, but he’s not a particularly good one this week in a tough matchup.

Pass Catchers: Landry Jones targeted Martavis Bryant (FD $6,900, DK $4,700) or Antonio Brown (FD $8,300, DK $7,900) on ten of his twelve passes against the Cardinals, and while Bryant obviously had a lot more success with those catches, it’s worth noting that Brown was clearly on his radar (as he should be). Lot of people are going to flock to Bryant this week following his performance last week and last season, but keep in mind that this is a receiver with 32 career receptions, something Antonio Brown can do in a couple of games. And while he’s generated big plays in bunches in his career, Bryant set a career high in both targets and yards last week with eight and six, respectively, and ended last season with two straight one-catch games. Bryant is a tournament play, and I don’t want to cast any doubt over his ability to score a pair of 80-yard touchdowns no matter who is under center. But Landry Jones isn’t a good enough quarterback to continue to complete 75% of his passes at 14 yards per attempt, and Antonio Brown is going to keep his role as the team’s best receiver, and see a healthy amount of targets. I actually feel more strongly about Bryant if Roethlisberger returns, as I have no doubt the Steelers will unleash him to throw 30 or more passes against this weak defense, and he’s proven he’s capable of connecting with Bryant for big plays over a bigger sample than “a dozen passes against the Cardinals.”

The Takeaway: Don’t get caught chasing points on Martavis Bryant, and keep an eye on the injury report. Landry Jones is unlikely to play as well as he did during his brief appearance last week over a full game, and his (and his receivers) expectations should be tempered. However, if Big Ben plays, the offense should have a ton of success against a bad pass defense. Either way, Le’Veon Bell is in play, but doesn’t have the benefit of a good matchup this week.

Kansas City Chiefs

Quarterback: Alex Smith (FD $6,800, DK $5,100) started off his 2015 campaign with a three-touchdown performance against the Texans, and has since thrown three touchdowns in five starts. He’s also thrown three interceptions over that span, and has generally struggled to even complete passes, failing to get over 60% of his passes to their intended targets over the past two games. Smith is a limited, slightly injured, boring quarterback that you don’t want to roster in DFS this week. His upside can be matched or beaten by virtually every other QB on this slate, and the matchup against a mediocre Pittsburgh pass defense isn’t good enough to target.

Running Game: The Chiefs have a committee of running backs who, combined, cannot even begin to replace Jamaal Charles. I would rather be a week late on rostering the guy who breaks out from this group than spend another week assuming that Charcandrick West (FD $5,900, DK $4,200) or Knile Davis (FD $5,300, DK $4,000) will have a breakout game. The Steelers are a top-five DVOA run defense, anyways, so let’s wait to see if a back emerges from this group and gets a bulk of the touches.

Pass Catchers: Jeremy Maclin (FD $6,900, DK $6,400) is going through the concussion protocol, but appears to have taken a step in the right direction and is heading toward clearance. If he’s able to go, he’s an attractive option, having received double-digit targets in the three games prior to last week’s concussion-shortened outing. Even if those targets are relatively short, Maclin has the speed to break away for a big play, and is tied for the team lead in targets in the red zone. If Maclin doesn’t play, Albert Wilson (FD $4,500, DK $3,000), Chris Conley (FD $4,800, DK $3,000) and Travis Kelce (FD $6,000, DK $4,900) would have to carry the passing offense, and all three would be great choices in any format. Kelce is in play regardless, but it would help quite a bit if Maclin were out. The Steelers have allowed the second-most points to opposing tight ends this year, and while most of that has come from Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Gates, Kelce is somewhere between those two players in terms of where he stands in the tight end rankings, and he should be able to get open and find the end zone against the Steelers.

The Takeaway: If Jeremy Maclin plays, he’s an appealing option, and if he doesn’t, Albert Wilson and Chris Conley (in that order) become strong, cheap plays. Travis Kelce should be on your radar regardless, as the Chiefs will likely have to throw the move the ball against a Pittsburgh team with a strong run defense but a mediocre pass defense.

Cleveland Browns at St. Louis Rams

Cleveland Browns						St. Louis Rams
Sunday – 1 p.m.						Edward Jones Dome
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		5.5	42	18.25				-5.5	42	23.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	23.5	12	5	22		Offense	16.8	31	32	20
Opp. Defense	22.6	13	14	21		Opp. Defense	26.3	23	18	32
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
St. Louis Rams	3	24	12	9		Cleveland Browns	21	27	21	17
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Benjamin	52	31	4	528		Britt	22	11	1	183
Hawkins	32	18	0	186		Austin	25	16	4	243
Hartline	22	9	0	128		Quick	3	1	0	10
Barnidge	41	27	5	413		Cook	28	15	0	169

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Gary Barnidge, Duke Johnson, Isaiah Crowell (CLE, Questionable), Tre Mason, Tavon Austin (STL, Questionable)

CLE Matchup Rating: 2.5
STL Matchup Rating: 5.0

Cleveland Browns

Quarterback: The Rams are a top-ten defense against both the pass and run according to Football Outsiders and numberFire, but they’re not as good as the Broncos, who allowed two touchdown passes to Josh McCown (FD $6,900, DK $5,200) last week. It was McCown’s fourth straight start with two touchdown passes, and while his completion percentage and interception total left a lot to be desired, if he’s going to score two passing touchdowns and go over 200 yards every week, he’s going to reach value for daily fantasy players at his current salary. However, I think this is the week it all comes crashing down, as not even Aaron Rodgers could put together a clean game against this St. Louis defense.

Running Game: In yet another example of NFL coaches not caring about your fantasy team, the Browns introduced Robert Turbin (FD $4,700, DK $3,000) to their backfield with ten carries last week, further cutting into the value of Isaiah Crowell (FD $6,000, DK $3,800) and Duke Johnson (FD $5,600, DK $4,200). It’s hard to imagine any of these players seeing more than 12-15 touches against a St. Louis defense that ranks eighth in DVOA against the run. And while this is a defense that allowed a big game to Matt Jones in Week 2, it has otherwise slowed down opposing runners, instead giving up catches and yards to backs through the passing game as of late. That would have me leaning toward Johnson if I had to pick a Cleveland back, but I don’t have to, and I won’t.

Pass Catchers: Two months ago, if I told you that Travis Benjamin (FD $6,600, DK $5,400) and Gary Barnidge (FD $5,900, DK $4,900) would be two of the league’s top fantasy performers through six weeks, you would have probably needed a quick Google to remind yourself which team they were on. The duo have combined for 92 of the team’s 225 targets (with a large chunk of the remaining targets going to ultra-low-ceiling Andrew Hawkins and Duke Johnson out of the backfield), and nine of the team’s 11 receiving touchdowns. Receivers have been unable to find the end zone often against the Rams this year, and Jimmy Graham is the only tight end to accomplish the feat, so I’m not going to go out of my way to roster Benjamin or Barnidge. But both present tournament upside as multiple touchdown threats, even in a tough matchup. They’re the stars of an offense that is likely to be playing from behind in this game, and their quarterback seems to be good enough to get them the ball in positions to succeed.

The Takeaway: Benjamin and Barnidge are worthy of a spot on one or two of your tournament rosters, but otherwise, you can steer clear of the Browns in a tough spot against the St. Louis defense.

St. Louis Rams

Quarterback: If Nick Foles (FD $6,400, DK $5,100) throws more than 25 passes in this game, Jeff Fisher and his coaching staff should be fired on the spot. The Browns are an average pass defense, ranking 16th in the league in DVOA and 13th in points allowed to opposing passers, but they’re facing one of the worst run defenses in the league and have a star rookie running back, plus two other capable rushers. Foles had a breakout game against a good Arizona defense and played well against the tough Seattle defense, so it’s impossible to rule him out entirely, but there are such better options in more obvious positions to succeed.

Running Game: Welcome to the NFL, Todd Gurley (FD $7,400, DK $5,000). In his first two games as a fully integrated member of the St. Louis offense, the former Georgia star rushed for over 300 yards on 55 carries, and was a fantasy superstar despite failing to find the end zone. This week, he’ll go up against a Cleveland defense that ranks 31st against the run in DVOA, and has allowed the second-most points to backs this season. Latavius Murray, Justin Forsett and Ronnie Hillman all went over 100 rushing yards against this defense, while Dexter McCluster, Danny Woodhead and Chris Ivory all had 100 or more total yards. Backs get production against the Browns, and Gurley has an insane workload as the most talented player on the St. Louis offense by a wide margin. You already knew this, but he’s the top overall play this weekend.

Pass Catchers: The Browns are dealing with several injuries to their defensive backs, but even if you wanted to target the St. Louis passing game, who would you pick? No player has more than 28 targets through five games, and even in a two-score loss last week, the team still ran the ball over 30 times. Don’t waste your time digging through this set of pass catchers, and go with solo Foles if you really think the Rams will pass with success against the Browns.

The Takeaway: Todd Gurley is the top overall play on the weekend, and the St. Louis defense is in an interesting spot against the turnover-prone Josh McCown. Otherwise, there’s not much to like on the Rams offense, especially since it should be easy for Gurley to carry the team to a successful outing.

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