RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down: Week 9

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2016-11-07 04:11:19

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.

Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.

Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code.

INJURIES – I will update all notable injuries/suspensions on Saturday morning after we have final injury reports

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Atlanta Falcons						Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		-3.5	51	27.25				3.5	51	23.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	32.8	1	2	15		Offense	21.7	19	20	12
Opp. Defense	27.0	25	24	20		Opp. Defense	28.9	29	30	11
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	25	25	24	12		Atlanta Falcons	32	26	28	29
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Jones	70	43	4	859		Evans	84	44	6	595
Sanu	50	32	3	342		Humphries	38	25	0	291
Hardy	13	10	2	83		Shepard	13	10	2	123
Tamme	31	22	3	210		Brate	37	23	3	248

Notable injuries and suspensions: Tevin Coleman and Jacob Tamme are out for Atlanta. Doug Martin, Charles Sims, Jacquizz Rodgers, and Russell Shepard are out for Tampa Bay.

ATL Matchup Rating: 8.0
TB Matchup Rating: 6.5

Atlanta Falcons

Quarterback: Matt Ryan continues to be one of the more pleasant surprises of the 2016 season, as he still leads the league with 2,636 passing yards. He ranks third in completion percentage behind only Drew Brees and Tom Brady at 69.2%, and he is behind only Brady in yards per attempt at 9.45. That is more than 1.25 yards clear of third-place Andy Dalton. In other words, Ryan is having the best season of his career. He led the team down the field for a game-winning drive against the Packers in the final minutes, and this is a fine Thursday matchup against a Bucs team that just allowed 500 passing yards to Derek Carr. If you are playing the Thursday lock contests, getting a good start with Ryan is definitely a path you can consider.

Running Back: In the absence of Tevin Coleman last week against the Packers, Devonta Freeman comfortably out-snapped Terron Ward 46 to 17. I can’t imagine that Coleman will be ready for a Thursday game on a short week, but we will have to wait for final injury reports for confirmation. Freeman was dealing with a hip injury of his own and didn’t look like his normal self last week, rushing for just over three yards per carry on 11 carries. He did manage to score twice (once in the passing game), which salvaged a fine fantasy day despite a very pedestrian yardage total. I prefer Matt Ryan if you are looking for Atlanta exposure on Thursday, but Freeman is in play should Coleman be ruled out. If Coleman plays, I am off this whole unit.

Pass Catchers: Julio Jones was nothing more than a decoy after injuring his knee against the Packers, as he did not catch a single pass after the first quarter. He insists that he is fully healthy heading into this week’s game, but I have my concerns. With the premium that you have to pay to get him, he’s not a sure thing in cash games. I would probably save him for GPP pairings with Matt Ryan. He will likely see a lot of coverage from Vernon Hargreaves, but the promising rookie was torched by Amari Cooper last week. The main beneficiary of Jones’ injury was Mohamed Sanu, who was featured in the second half and caught the game winning score. Should Jones be limited in any capacity, Sanu should play a featured role once again, and he is still pretty cheap across the injury. Jacob Tamme has already been ruled out of this game, and Austin Hooper could be an interesting punt play at tight end. He caught all five of his targets for 41 yards in Tamme’s stead against the Packers.

The Takeaway: Atlanta has one of the higher team totals of the week, and this should be one of the more fantasy-friendly Thursday games. The passing attack is where I will likely go, but Devonta Freeman is in play should Tevin Coleman be ruled out again this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Quarterback: The Falcons defense provided little resistance for Aaron Rodgers last week and ranks just 22nd in DVOA against the pass. This sets up as a game where Jameis Winston can excel, but he has had no middle ground this year. His games have either been very good or downright terrible, and last week was one of those poor games. Although he threw for two scores, he completed just 50% of his passes and did not crack 200 yards passing even though the game went for almost a full overtime period. If you are choosing a quarterback in this game, I much prefer finding the extra $900 on DK or $1,000 on FD to fit Matt Ryan.

Running Back: Jacquizz Rodgers suffered one of the more predictable injuries of the year last week. The Bucs were determined to run him into the ground with Charles Sims and Doug Martin out, and that’s exactly what happened. He’s not a 25 touch guy, and the Bucs played with fire for three straight weeks. The coaching staff has confirmed that a committee approach is likely this week, with Peyton Barber and Antone Smith splitting the reps. It was Smith that surprisingly got more run last week, but this is a touchy situation. Both guys are viable as GPP punt plays, but I wouldn’t go here in cash games. Smith carries more appeal in full PPR formats.

Pass Catchers: The targets continue to roll in for Mike Evans, but Winston was just off last week. Evans caught just four of eleven targets for 50 yards, and the touchdowns went to Cameron Brate and Russell Shepard. Evans will likely see shadow coverage from Desmond Trufant this week, which is a massive concern. Evans will likely get his based on volume, but I think his upside is a bit capped in this matchup. Don’t fall for the Shepard trap. Even though he has scored in back-to-back games, he has only played 36% and 38% of the total offensive snaps in those games. If you are looking for value, I would stick with either Brate at tight end or Adam Humphries at wide receiver, as Humphries played on 71% of the snaps a week ago and actually led the team in receiving yards.

The Takeaway: Desmond Trufant will aim to take Mike Evans away, and that might be enough to slow the Bucs down in this one. They are down to their fourth string running back, and Jameis Winston is as inconsistent as they come. This whole Tampa Bay roster is better utilized in GPPs than in cash games given the nature of this matchup.

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings

Detroit Lions						Minnesota Vikings
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		6.5	41	17.25				-6.5	41	23.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	22.9	16	15	27		Offense	19.9	23	25	31
Opp. Defense	14.9	1	4	9		Opp. Defense	23.8	21	19	18
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Minnesota Vikings	3	12	2	13		Detroit Lions	31	10	13	31
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Tate	62	38	1	434		Diggs	52	35	2	466
Jones	59	36	4	656		Thielen	35	25	1	364
Boldin	44	33	4	276		Johnson	16	6	0	92
Ebron	35	25	1	289		Rudolph	54	31	3	322

Notable injuries and suspensions: Theo Riddick (DET RB) – Questionable (Ankle) / Jerick McKinnon (MIN RB) – Questionable (Ankle)

DET Matchup Rating: 3.0
MIN Matchup Rating: 5.5

Detroit Lions

Quarterback: Lions/Vikings checks in with the lowest total of the week in Las Vegas at just 41 points, and the Lions have the lowest team total on the board. Matthew Stafford is having a fine season, and DK is trying to bait you with a low price tag, but I can’t trust any quarterback on the road against a good Minnesota defense. Yes, the Vikings didn’t look good on Monday against the Bears, but this is a tough spot for Stafford against a defense that is ranked 4th in DVOA against the pass.

Running Back: Theo Riddick is quietly taking over the feature back duties in Detroit, though that may change if and when Dwayne Washington finally is back to full health. That is not likely to happen this week, and Riddick was on the field for 52 of a possible 61 snaps against Houston. He isn’t a great runner, but he is a very capable pass catcher out of the backfield; he caught eight passes for 77 yards and a score last week while chipping in with 56 rushing yards on top of that. Detroit might have to rely on him with short dump off passes in this game, and the Vikings are susceptible to pass catching running backs. Riddick is an interesting risk/reward value play at RB this week, and he will be low-owned once again.

SATURDAY UPDATE – Riddick missed a lot of practice time throughout the week and has been hit with a questionable tag. Keep an eye on this, but he is fully expected to play.

Pass Catchers: Outside of Riddick, I have no interest in any Detroit pass catchers here. Minnesota has a solid secondary, and nobody really comes super cheap in this unit.

The Takeaway: Theo Riddick is in play as an interesting RB option. He is getting more snaps than he has all season, and his pass catching prowess will be needed against a feisty defense. I am not interested in any other Detroit players, and you can obviously consider the Vikings defense in this one.

Minnesota Vikings

Quarterback: Sam Bradford literally looked like he was running in quicksand on Halloween night against the Bears. He finished with a pedestrian line of 228 yards and one touchdown, despite throwing 37 pass attempts. The Vikings should not have to lean on Bradford this much in most games, as their defense generally keeps them from falling way behind. Even against the inept defense of the Lions, it’s hard to trust Bradford in any format. There just isn’t enough upside here.

Running Back: Jerick McKinnon did not play on Monday with an ankle injury, and we have not yet heard word on his possible status for Week 9. If he sits out, Matt Asiata again enters the RB discussion as a potential touchdown scorer. He’s not a sexy fantasy pick and isn’t a great runner, but he can plod ahead for four yards at a time and generally finds the way to some fantasy points. Game flow took him out of the equation against the Bears. The Lions are better against the run than the pass, but they are still allowing 111 rush yards per game. Keep an eye on McKinnon’s status here, and check back for updates later in the week.

SATURDAY UPDATE – It sounds like McKinnon is going to play, which makes this an ugly time share. I will likely avoid the Minnesota running game even in a favorable matchup.

Pass Catchers: Stefon Diggs appears to be healthy again, as he saw a whopping 13 targets from Bradford last week. He caught eight of them and managed a garbage time touchdown, too. He is in play this week, especially if Darius Slay misses another game in the Detroit secondary. Kyle Rudolph has been quiet for a few weeks, but this is a great bounce-back spot against Detroit’s woeful tight end coverage. Houston’s duo of C.J. Fiedorowicz and Ryan Griffin compiled an 8/77/1 line against Detroit a week ago.

The Takeaway: Sam Bradford cannot be trusted, but you can look to Stefon Diggs or Kyle Rudolph as a way to get exposure to Minnesota in a favorable matchup against a bad, banged up defense. Matt Asiata is in play as a value option should Jerrick McKinnon sit again, though his upside is limited.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants

Philadelphia Eagles						New York Giants
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		2.5	42.5	20				-2.5	42.5	22.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	25.6	10	29	17		Offense	19.0	26	8	32
Opp. Defense	20.1	10	21	10		Opp. Defense	16.7	4	6	20
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
New York Giants	7	13	20	11		Philadelphia Eagles	5	15	8	4
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Matthews	55	36	3	419		Beckham	70	40	3	630
Agholor	36	21	1	216		Shepard	48	31	2	334
Green-Beckham	31	18	1	194		Cruz	41	24	1	331
Ertz	20	15	0	150		Donnell	21	15	1	92

Notable injuries and suspensions: None

PHI Matchup Rating: 5.5
NYG Matchup Rating: 5.5

Philadelphia Eagles

Quarterback: Some of the comments in recent weeks have honed in on my relative hatred for the Eagles in this column during the year. I must admit that, in reading back through them, I have been abnormally harsh on them. Sorry, Eagles fans. It was unintentional. They are just so… unreliable I guess is the word. Carson Wentz might eventually be a fine fantasy quarterback, but we aren’t there yet. He tossed for only 202 yards on 43 pass attempts against Dallas. Not all of that was his fault, as the receivers continually drop passes, and perhaps this is what is holding him back. In any case, we can’t consider him on the road in New York.

Running Back: I saw a report earlier this week that Darren Sproles “might replace” Ryan Mathews as the lead back in Philadelphia. Seriously, where on earth does this notion that Mathews was ever the lead back come from? Oh, it comes straight from Doug Pederson’s mouth! He said it once again on Wednesday morning. Despite his comments, Sproles has played 186 snaps this year. Mathews has played 128 snaps. The whole notion that Mathews ever was the lead back is absurd. While I disagree with the usage of Sproles in a lead back capacity, he is certainly on the fantasy radar this week. He’s mega cheap on both FD and DK and has massive appeal on DraftKings in the full PPR format. For $3,900, there aren’t a whole lot of better values on the board.

Pass Catchers: The Eagles smartly went with the “get the ball to Jordan Matthews approach against Dallas, as he caught 11 of 14 targets for 65 yards and a score. He has quickly become the most reliable receiver on the team, as Dorial Green-Beckham and Nelson Agholor have some problems getting open and then hanging on the football when it comes their way. Zach Ertz has been a disappointment this year. Matthews is the guy you want if you trust anyone here, and he’s not a must play by any means.

The Takeaway: My favorite play on the Eagles this week is definitely Darren Sproles. He’s cheap, and his role continues to expand. Give him a look for all formats. Jordan Matthews is also a reasonable play given his likely volume, but nobody else is really worth a look here on an unpredictable offense.

New York Giants

Quarterback: Philadelphia’s defense really frustrated Dak Prescott last week, and I have not given them enough credit over the course of the year. They lead the league in DVOA against the pass, and there is no reason to take a chance with the ever-unpredictable Eli Manning against this unit. I promise, there are better quarterbacks in some of the later games.

Running Back: Prior to the bye week, Rashad Jennings had 13 carries for 25 yards against the Rams in London. Gross. He’s not talented, and he’s not a workhorse running back. Expect Paul Perkins to be more involved this week, or else the results aren’t going to be there for the Giants on the ground. Pass.

Pass Catchers: Of course, Odell Beckham Jr. is capable of dominating any matchup. This week, you will also likely get him at a low ownership. While I do think the Eagles have over-achieved a bit in the secondary, it’s hard to argue with the results. Don’t play Beckham in your cash games this week, but it’s not the worst move in the world to sprinkle him into some GPP lineups. I have no interest in anyone else.

The Takeaway: The Eagles/Giants game also has a low projected total of just 43 points this week. We’re off to a roaring start with two low-scoring Sunday games. The Eagles defense is better than I have given them credit for, and this isn’t the spot to go heavy on New York players. Odell Beckham Jr. is always worth a look in GPPs, but that’s where my interest begins and ends in Week 9.

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins

New York Jets						Miami Dolphins
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		4	44	20				-4	44	24
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	18.8	28	26	16		Offense	20.9	21	23	7
Opp. Defense	22.7	17	9	30		Opp. Defense	26.0	23	31	1
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Miami Dolphins	22	9	22	18		New York Jets	24	16	30	20
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Marshall	77	34	2	540		Landry	65	46	1	574
Enunwa	59	36	3	502		Parker	36	23	1	295
Marshall	11	6	0	75		Stills	32	16	3	317
Davis	1	0	0	0		Cameron	11	8	1	60

Notable injuries and suspensions: DeVante Parker (MIA WR) – Questionable (Hamstring)

NYJ Matchup Rating: 5.0
MIA Matchup Rating: 5.5

New York Jets

Quarterback: Oh. The glorious matchups keep rolling in! Ryan Fitzpatrick completed less than 50% of his passes and threw for just 228 yards against an abomination of a Cleveland secondary, and he was benched earlier in the year for Geno Smith. Needless to say, he’s not a fantasy option this week.

Running Back: Perhaps Matt Forte will be the biggest beneficiary of Fitzpatrick being under center once again. He has seen massive workloads in each of the last two games, but the Jets did run 73 offensive snaps against Cleveland. That’s an abnormally high number. In addition, Bilal Powell saw 30 snaps to Forte’s 43. This is still a time share risk on any given week, especially if the Jets fall behind. Game flow will determine Forte’s weekly value. That said, he has 55 carries over the last two games and four total touchdowns in that span. I think he’s being over-valued a bit this week, but I wouldn’t talk you off him if you are dead set on the play.

Pass Catchers: The woes of Fitzpatrick have made Brandon Marshall difficult to trust, and he tends to see a lot of double or bracket coverage with Eric Decker out of commission. I do like Marshall to rebound this week, as the targets are still there, and he is a great GPP option as most people will likely bail on him. Quincy Enunwa has been the hottest receiver on the team of late, as he has scored in back-to-back games with long touchdown grabs. He’s worth a look this week, but his price is starting to rise on every site.

The Takeaway: There isn’t a must play in this group, as this marks three straight Sunday games that all fall amongst the five lowest Vegas totals of the week. Matt Forte, Brandon Marshall, and Quincy Enunwa can all be considered, but they aren’t “A list” options in Week 9.

Miami Dolphins

Quarterback: On to Ryan Tannehill we go! Where are the good quarterbacks, you may be asking right now. They aren’t here yet, that’s for sure. Tannehill threw for just 204 yards in the Dolphins’ last game, and much of that was on a 66 yard touchdown to Kenny Stills. Like many of the other quarterbacks listed on this page, he simply lacks DFS upside. This is a great matchup against a true “funnel defense” in the Jets. They have the third best DVOA against the run but rank a meager 31st against the pass. Are you crazy for putting Tannehill on SOME teams this week? No. Are you crazy if you put him on 100% of your teams? I think so. Tread carefully.

Running Back: Jay Ajayi has been a breakout star for the Dolphins, and Arian Foster’s retirement helps pave the way for him to have a clear lead back role; not that he hasn’t earned it anyhow. He has run for 200+ yards in back-to-back games, scoring three touchdowns while carrying the ball 53 times in the process. While Adam Gase says that they have to “monitor” his workload, the good news is that Miami is coming off a bye. His price tag still seems a little light based on his recent performance, but this is a tough matchup. I will likely be underweight compared to the field with Ajayi ownership in this one.

Pass Catchers: Tannehill’s struggles have predictably trickled down to the Miami receiving corps. Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker, and Kenny Stills continue to dominate snaps with Miami using a 3-WR set often, especially in the absence of Jordan Cameron. Landry is known as the PPR asset, but his volume hasn’t been through the roof this year. Stills is the big play threat, as evidenced by his 66 yard touchdown in the last game. DeVante Parker is a fine all around receiver, though he has struggled the most this year. All of them are in play against a bad Jets defense, and this could be the week where Landry gets it going. The problem is that he is ridiculously over-priced on both FD and DK. That makes this a tough spot to peg, and picking the right guy here could be the key to success against the Jets’ swiss cheese secondary.

The Takeaway: The Jets are strong against the run and weak against the pass. That worries me as far as Jay Ajayi outlook, especially since he is likely to be highly owned after his 200 yard games. Ryan Tannehill is a risk/reward QB option against a bad secondary, but he’s hard to trust given his struggles. All the wide receivers are in play, and picking the right guy that goes off could be the key to success. I like Landry in PPR formats even though he has the highest price, while Stills makes sense in a GPP landscape.

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