The GPP Scene: Year 3, Week 2

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2016-06-05 13:40:21

Welcome back to The GPP Scene! If you are unfamiliar with this series, this is an attempt to break down my own tournament entries to determine if we can figure out an “optimal” strategy for tournament play. Here’s the scoop: I will enter the $3 DraftKings “Slider” GPP (3 entry max) five days a week with three different teams. The teams will be composed of the following:

Team #1 – Two-team stacks with 4 hitters from each team, finished off by whatever pitchers I like best that fit within my remaining cap.

Team #2 – A 5-man stack from one team surrounded by plays that I like at pitcher and with the other 3 hitters.

Team #3 – The cheapest plays that I like at pitcher surrounded by a team of elite hitters.

I’ll document the results of each team along with my profit and loss and return on investment as the days go by, with some final analysis for the week at the end of the article. Let’s get to the second week of results!

SUNDAY, MAY 15TH

CASH LINE CUTOFF = 133.65 POINTS

Team #1 – The mini-stacks of choice today were Houston (against Sean O’Sullivan) and Milwaukee (against Cesar Vargas). The Astros’ bats were all very highly owned, as all four players that I chose checked in with ownership percentages north of 20%. I used the expensive options here, choosing Altuve, Correa, Springer, and Rasmus. The four of them combined to put up 52 fantasy points, so this worked out pretty well. On the other side, the Milwaukee bats weren’t great, but I did have exposure to all three of their runs. Jonathan Lucroy and Chris Carter were the big performers, as the two of them combined for 43 points. This lineup allowed me to “spend up” for one pitcher while saving at the other spot. I opted for Jose Fernandez and Dan Straily, and this was a fine combination as they combined for almost 60 points. This was easily my best roster to date, and I walked away from this one with a fine score.

• FINISH: 172.40 PTS / 73 OF 3833 FOR $15.

Team #2 – My five-man stack was the Blue Jays against Cesar Ramos and the Rangers. This was the infamous Bautista/Odor brawl game, and I only wish this team could have been that exciting. The stack actually worked out fairly well, as Toronto scored six runs and my five hitters racked up 74 fantasy points. Two of my other three hitters also performed well, as this squad got 30 total points from Brian McCann and Tyler Holt (who was in the leadoff spot for the Reds). The problem was the pitchers. Since most of the Toronto bats were expensive, I had to go to the mid-range for both pitchers. This gave me Joe Ross and Matt Moore, both of whom were underwhelming. Neither made it through six innings, and neither put up more than ten fantasy points despite decent matchups. Both pitched at home, but they just couldn’t get anything going against the A’s or Marlins, respectively. Those performances wasted what could have been a decent cash.

• FINISH: 119.80 PTS / 1401 OF 3833 FOR $0.

Team #3 – The cheap pitching options were Joe Ross against the Marlins and Adam Morgan against the Reds, and this was nothing short of a dumpster fire. Morgan gave up seven runs in 3 2/3 innings, and the two pitchers combined for negative points. It was disappointing, as I was on the right bats on this day, but nothing is going to help you overcome negative pitching points. Five of my eight hitters (Brian McCann, Miguel Cabrera, Jose Bautista, Manny Machado, and Brett Gardner) all scored more than 15 points, but it was all for naught because of the pitching. That is going to be the problem with this team #3 approach. It is going to be hard to nail both cheap pitchers, and even when that happens you have to get the expensive bats to go off. I could see this team having a huge loss by the time all is said and done, or I could see it maybe taking down a top score if everything breaks right at some point.

• FINISH: 105.00 PTS / 2206 OF 3833 FOR $0.

TUESDAY, MAY 17TH

CASH LINE CUTOFF = 140.85 POINTS

Team #1 – My mini-stacks of choice were Minnesota against the gas can that is Mike Pelfrey and Philadelphia as a potentially sneaky option against Wei-Yin Chen. Minnesota managed just two runs against Pelfrey and company, and one of those was on a solo home run from the powerless Joe Mauer (who I did not have). Philadelphia managed just three runs. Though I did have exposure to the other Minnesota run (a HR from Miguel Sano) and most of the Philadelphia production, this was still a whiff despite two solid pitching performances from Noah Syndergaard and Madison Bumgarner.

• FINISH: 133.50 PTS / 2092 OF 7666 FOR $0.

Team #2 – This was a day where there were a ton of aces on the mound, and I wanted to grab one team where I could fit two of them including Clayton Kershaw. On this squad, I opted for both Kershaw and Madison Bumgarner, and the only way to do that was to five-man stack the poor Atlanta offense against Juan Nicasio. This worked out all right, as Atlanta scored nine runs on the night. However, I did not have Mallex Smith on this squad, as he was fairly expensive and batting ninth, and Smith ended up with a pair of home runs and four RBI’s. The good news is that the two aces combined for more than 80 fantasy points, and this squad got a home run from punt catcher Tommy Joseph.

• FINISH: 161.35 PTS / 396 OF 7666 FOR $8.

Team #3 – The cheap pitcher strategy was not the strategy to take on a night where four or five aces all performed very well. Dallas Keuchel mediocre season continued against the White Sox, and Colin Rea was a disappointment against the Giants. Those two pitchers combined for less than 20 points, and that put this squad at a huge disadvantage on a night where there were pitching combinations that put up 80+. Those pitching combinations alone came close to matching the point total of this entire team. It was a night to spend up at pitcher and save with the bats.

• FINISH: 84.50 PTS / 6326 OF 7666 FOR $0.

WEDNESDAY, MAY 18TH

CASH LINE CUTOFF = 121.70 POINTS

Team #1 – I really liked the Yankees bats against Shelby Miller this evening, so I did something that I have not done thus far: I put a team in both my 4/4 stack squad and also made them my five-man stack on Team #2. This didn’t turn out well. On Team #1, I used four Yankees and four Diamondbacks in hopes of a shootout in Arizona. The game finished with a 4-2 score, so this team was out of contention. Throw in a pair of mediocre pitching performances from Francisco Liriano and Drew Pomeranz, and you have one of my worst rosters of the week.

• FINISH: 75.25 PTS / 6578 OF 7666 FOR $0.

Team #2 – The Yankees were the five-man stack, too, as I mentioned above. This didn’t work. This team fared a little better thanks to Johnny Cueto and his complete game victory, but it was still well short of the cash line.

• FINISH: 87.50 PTS / 5245 OF 7666 FOR $0.

Team #3 – Almost!!! This was one of the better Team #3’s I have put together so far, and it was kick-started by fine performances from Nick Tropeano and Adam Wainwright. Both earned victories on the night, and they combined for 45 fantasy points. A few of the big bats paid off, but it could have been much better. Mike Trout led the way with 26 points, but only two other hitters cracked double figures. Buster Posey, George Springer, Robinson Cano, Anthony Rizzo, and Kris Bryant all scored seven points or less. It was disappointing, as this team literally was less than a point away from cashing. Argh!

• FINISH: 121.15 PTS / 1584 OF 7666 FOR $0.

THURSDAY, MAY 19TH

CASH LINE CUTOFF = 138.75 POINTS

Team #1 – Sometimes there are days where you just miss everything. This was one of those days for me. The mini-stacks of choice were Cleveland (against Tim Adleman and the subsequently awful Cincinnati bullpen) and Oakland (against Ivan Nova). It didn’t matter what those stacks did, as the two pitchers I chose on this team were Jon Gray and Matt Harvey. They combined to give up 15 earned runs in six total innings, good for a solid -19.7 fantasy points. That’s pretty darned impressive, isn’t it?

• FINISH: 68.30 PTS / 16795 OF 18720 FOR $0.

Team #2 – Hey, I put Chris Sale on a team! Yes! Here we come with 40 fantasy points! It’s too bad that I paired him with Jon Gray once again, so add his -11 points in there too. Oh, and for some reason I chose the Padres as an under-the-radar stack against Jeff Samardzija. I figured it was worth a shot in a larger-than-normal Slider GPP. They were all around 1-3% owned, but of course the Padres never score any runs. This wasn’t a wise choice.

• FINISH: 78.65 PTS / 15630 OF 18720 FOR $0.

Team #3 – The “cheap” pitching options that I chose were Michael Wacha and Ross Stripling. Like all the other pitchers I chose today, they were terrible. These two fine folks combined for -0.5 fantasy points. Hey, it’s better than Team #1! Francisco Lindor and Mike Trout combined for 49 fantasy points, but that was about the only highlight of the day for me.

• FINISH: 70.50 PTS / 16595 OF 18720 FOR $0.

SATURDAY, MAY 21ST

CASH LINE CUTOFF = 106.00 POINTS

Team #1 – On a short five-game evening slate, I mini-stacked the Rangers (against Mike Fiers) and the Cubs (against Matt Cain). No team on the whole slate scored more than five runs, so stacking was not the optimal strategy this evening. Thankfully, I was on the right players from these two teams. As for the Rangers, I managed to roster Bryan Holaday as a punt catcher, and he cracked a couple of doubles en route to 12 fantasy points. The Cubs only scored three runs, but two of them came on solo home runs from Dexter Fowler and Kris Bryant. Their other run was kick-started by a double from Jorge Soler. I had all three of those players as part of my four-man Cubs stack. The squad was rounded out with 45 points from Jose Fernandez and Joe Ross, and it was enough to cash on a very low-scoring slate.

• FINISH: 114.25 PTS / 457 OF 3833 FOR $8.

Team #2 – The five-man stack of choice was the Astros, and this was a big whiff. Houston managed just one run against left-handed Cesar Ramos, and it came on a Marwin Gonzalez solo homer. My five Houston bats COMBINED for five fantasy points. Five! It’s a shame, because the rest of this team was fantastic. 19 points from Buster Posey went down the drain. 17 points from Kris Bryant went down the drain. 39 points from Matt Shoemaker went down the drain. In fact, this team was only four and a half points short of the cash line despite being a gigantic miss on an entire stack.

• FINISH: 101.45 PTS / 950 OF 3833 FOR $0.

Team #3 – The cheap pitching options were Kevin Gausman and the aforementioned Shoemaker, and they performed just fine. The issue was that almost every expensive bat flopped on this slate. Not a single one of the expensive hitters on this roster scored double figure fantasy points. Anthony Rizzo, Carlos Correa, and Jose Altuve all had zero points. Like I said above, it was a weird slate. On to next week!

• FINISH: 80.30 PTS / 2072 OF 3833 FOR $0.

Final Results: Week Two

My Analysis

Welcome to baseball GPPs! There is an issue with the three strategies that I am using for this article, and it is likely going to be frustrating. All three of them are boom-or-bust strategies, as two of them involve stacking and one of them involves taking two cheap pitchers. In each of the last two seasons of running this series, I have attained a big score at some point to make this all worthwhile. The odds of that are definitely there with these strategies, but I will not be surprised if my ROI settles in at a loss this season. Again, ten days of play is way too early to draw any conclusions, and if I have learned anything from playing DFS for four years, it’s that you have to learn to manage the up-and-down swings of MLB GPP play. If only that Sunday team would have been just a little better….

As always, thanks for reading! Most of all, I hope this helps YOU as you formulate your tournament strategies. Good luck out there!