The Kike Hernandez Question
The Kike Hernandez mispricing will go down as a fascinating case study in DFS game theory. His salary of just $220 broke the rules of roster construction, and the slate itself provided more potential roster diversity than we’ve ever seen before.
Kike ended up in the starting lineup, but for the majority of the day we were debating whether or not to use him in lineups even if he was out. This would have essentially resulted in an automatic zero, and common sense tells us a zero would be bad for a GPP lineup.
We’ll never know exactly how things would have turned out if he was on the bench, but what we do know is that he scored zero points anyway. He also ended up on the $50,000 winning FanDuel Grand Slam roster.
The Kike Hernandez Question: Can You Win With a Zero?
Earlier that day I wondered aloud in the RotoGrinders chat how often the winning lineup included a zero. “It happens all the time,” said one RotoGrinders member. That sounded great, but at that exact moment I lamented not having specific data to support the claim. Inspired by this debate, I decided to take a look back at all the FanDuel Grand Slam winning lineups from 2016. I had to know for sure how often this happens, and exactly how crazy it would have been to take Kike Hernandez in a GPP lineup if he sat the bench as expected.
As it turns out, it happens all the time. Fourteen times in 2016 to be precise, out of 71 measured opportunities. That’s 14 winning rosters that could not outscore Bluto Blutarsky’s grade point average with their lowest scoring player. The table and chart below demonstrate that not only is posting a zero common, but it’s actually been extremely likely for the winning roster to include at least one player with a single digit score.
It appears I was incorrect in my assumptions prior to Friday’s action. I was vocal about not wanting to roster Kike in my GPP lineups if he were to sit out. In my mind, it was extremely unlikely that you could expect the winning roster in any GPP to include a zero. Yet the winning roster on this day included specifically Kike, and the data from 2016 appears to support the idea that you do not necessarily need all 8 batters to go off in order to win a GPP.
Some Additional Questions
As I looked through this data set, I came up with two other questions that are worth asking regarding the winning lineups:
Question 1: How often has the lowest scoring player been a salary relief option?:
This information is far less telling than the information above, but I’ll share it with you none the less.
This is interesting, but we can’t draw any concrete conclusions. It makes sense that over 66% of players who scored the lowest cost under $3,200. They are usually less expensive for good reason.
Otherwise, I don’t think we have enough data in this set to determine if pure punts are going to make us more or less likely to construct the winning roster. What we can see though is that in 2016, roughly 1/3 of the winning rosters included a player above $3,200 that was the lowest scoring player. That at least confirms for us that paying up for players in no way assures us of production, and nor does their failure preclude us from achieving our goal.
Question 2: How highly owned has the lowest scoring player on the winning roster been this season?:
I ask this question because I assumed Kike would be a highly owned player. If logic holds true, we’d expect that high ownership would actually be helpful to us if the player was going to score zero. As you can see below, the lowest scoring player on the winning roster has quite frequently carried a relatively high ownership percentage.
Conclusion
We have to be careful about making sweeping generalizations based on limited information, but I do think the results of this year’s FanDuel Grand Slam tournaments support the idea that a pure punt is worth considering if it allows you to love the other seven hitters in your roster. We saw Tinderella create a $50,000 lineup using an extreme version of this strategy, and the winning roster on FanDuel has included a zero almost 20% of the time this season.
Keep in mind that you’ll still have to obtain the necessary upside from your remaining roster, and you’d always prefer to roster a player who will see opportunity at the plate. Just know that using a pure punt can work, and should be one of the tools in your arsenal as you strategize your next GPP victory.
Data Set
Here is the complete data set for your own evaluation purposes.
| Date | Player | Score | Pos | Salary | Ownership |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/12/2016 | Didi Gregorius | 3 | SS | $2,600 | 2.30% |
| 6/11/2016 | Nolan Arenado | 0 | 3B | $4,500 | 28.80% |
| 6/10/2016 | Kike Hernandez | 0 | OF | $220 | 25.90% |
| 6/9/2016 | Hyun-Soo Kim | 12.2 | OF | $2,700 | 2.60% |
| 6/8/2016 | Brian Mccann | 10 | C | $3,100 | 37.90% |
| 6/7/2016 | Jose Altuve | 3 | 2B | $4,100 | 6.50% |
| 6/6/2016 | Addison Russell | 0 | SS | $2,900 | 3.20% |
| 6/5/2016 | Hank Conger | 3 | C | $2,000 | 7.50% |
| 6/4/2016 | Mark Trumbo | 18.7 | OF | $3,800 | 13.60% |
| 6/3/2016 | Cameron Maybin | 12.4 | OF | $2,900 | 10% |
| 6/2/2016 | DJ LeMahieu | 0 | 2B | $3,800 | 21.70% |
| 6/1/2016 | Matt Kemp | 12.7 | OF | $2,900 | 4.50% |
| 5/31/2016 | Logan Morrison | 12.2 | 1B | $3,100 | 0.90% |
| 5/30/2016 | Stephen Vogt | 6 | C | $2,400 | 22.80% |
| 5/29/2016 | Manny Machado | 6.2 | SS | $4,300 | 14.50% |
| 5/28/2016 | Chris Carter | 6 | 1B | $3,200 | 19.20% |
| 5/27/2016 | Edwin Encarnacion | 3.5 | 1B | $3,600 | 6.60% |
| 5/26/2016 | Alex Presley | 0 | OF | $2,200 | 0.80% |
| 5/25/2016 | Taylor Motter | 6 | SS | $2,100 | 17.40% |
| 5/24/2016 | Danny Valencia | 6.2 | 3B | $2,900 | 2.40% |
| 5/23/2016 | Matt Duffy | 9 | 3B | $2,500 | 4.10% |
| 5/22/2016 | Jayson Werth | 3 | OF | $3,200 | 3.80% |
| 5/21/2016 | Neil Walker | 3 | 2B | $2,700 | 17.50% |
| 5/20/2016 | Rene Rivera | 3.5 | C | $2,100 | 2.20% |
| 5/19/2016 | Lonnie Chisenhall | 0 | OF | $2,300 | 14.10% |
| 5/18/2016 | Brandon Phillips | 0 | 2B | $2,800 | 14.90% |
| 5/17/2016 | Manny Machado | 3 | SS | $3,900 | 16.80% |
| 5/16/2016 | Corey Seager | 6 | SS | $3,900 | 42.90% |
| 5/15/2016 | Marcus Semien | 9 | SS | $2,200 | 2.90% |
| 5/14/2016 | Manny Machado | 0 | SS | $4,200 | 14.10% |
| 5/13/2016 | Maikel Franco | 3 | 3B | $2,700 | 19.20% |
| 5/12/2016 | Carlos Beltran | 9.2 | OF | $2,800 | 10.40% |
| 5/11/2016 | Francisco Cervelli | 3 | C | $2,800 | 18.90% |
| 5/10/2016 | Yadier Molina | 15.2 | C | $2,800 | 1% |
| 5/9/2016 | Mark Teixeira | 0 | 1B | $2,800 | 14.50% |
| 5/8/2016 | Hanley Ramirez | 9 | 1B | $3,600 | 0.20% |
| 5/7/2016 | Brad Miller | 3 | SS | $2,200 | 29.60% |
| 5/6/2016 | Buster Posey | 0 | C | $3,800 | 12.60% |
| 5/5/2016 | Billy Hamilton | 9.2 | OF | $2,500 | 22% |
| 5/4/2016 | Justin Smoak | 6 | 1B | $2,200 | 26.20% |
| 5/3/2016 | Brandon Belt | 6 | 1B | $3,700 | 9.20% |
| 5/2/2016 | Seth Smith | 0 | OF | $3,300 | 1.60% |
| 5/1/2016 | Brian Dozier | 6.2 | 2B | $3,100 | 24.50% |
| 4/30/2016 | Dustin Pedroia | 3 | 2B | $3,900 | 8.60% |
| 4/29/2016 | J.D. Martinez | 12.7 | OF | $3,200 | 24.80% |
| 4/28/2016 | Mookie Betts | 9.2 | OF | $4,500 | 25.40% |
| 4/27/2016 | Adam Jones | 0 | OF | $2,700 | 6.10% |
| 4/26/2016 | Jed Lowrie | 9 | 2B | $2,300 | 32.60% |
| 4/25/2016 | Logan Forsythe | 3 | 2B | $3,500 | 5.10% |
| 4/24/2016 | Troy Tulowitzki | 6 | SS | $3,100 | 30.90% |
| 4/23/2016 | Miguel Montero | 3 | C | $2,700 | 20.90% |
| 4/22/2016 | Ben Zobrist | 9 | 2B | $2,800 | 14.70% |
| 4/21/2016 | George Springer | 9 | OF | $4,000 | 17.80% |
| 4/20/2016 | Eduardo Nunez | 6 | SS | $2,800 | 14% |
| 4/19/2016 | Addison Russell | 0 | SS | $2,800 | 0.30% |
| 4/18/2016 | Oswaldo Arcia | 6 | OF | $2,400 | 15.50% |
| 4/17/2016 | Evan Gattis | 3 | C | $2,400 | 18% |
| 4/16/2016 | A.J. Pierzynski | 9 | C | $2,100 | 22.30% |
| 4/15/2016 | Evan Gattis | 0 | C | $2,500 | 25.90% |
| 4/14/2016 | Russell Martin | 6 | C | $2,600 | 16% |
| 4/13/2016 | Russell Martin | 9 | C | $2,700 | 2% |
| 4/12/2016 | Matt Duffy | 3 | 3B | $4,100 | 5.80% |
| 4/11/2016 | Kyle Seager | 15 | 3B | $3,400 | 20.10% |
| 4/10/2016 | DJ LeMahieu | 6 | 2B | $3,700 | 2.10% |
| 4/9/2016 | Trevor Story | 3 | SS | $4,000 | 47.30% |
| 4/8/2016 | Jose Bautista | 3 | OF | $4,500 | 14.40% |
| 4/7/2016 | Giancarlo Stanton | 9 | OF | $4,900 | 24.40% |
| 4/6/2016 | Manny Machado | 6 | 3B | $4,200 | 25.90% |
| 4/5/2016 | Jake Lamb | 15 | 3B | $2,200 | 17.80% |
| 4/4/2016 | Joe Panik | 18 | 2B | $2,600 | 25.20% |
| 4/3/2016 | Neil Walker | 3 | 2B | $2,500 | 38.10% |