The Sporer Report: September 14th - September 20th
Welcome to The Sporer Report. It is designed to set up the week from a pitching perspective. Once the season gets rolling, Mondays become one of the regularly scheduled off days, so the slates will often be lighter and that allows us some time to plan for the remaining six days of the week, five of which will have full slates (Thursday is the other regular off-day).
Each week I will deep-dive the projected starters rundown identifying the best starts of the week, the potential value plays on the docket, and the starts where an otherwise strong asset may find some trouble. Additionally, I will rank my top 10 and bottom 10 bullpens. The importance here is two-fold: 1) you want to be careful betting on weak bullpens as it could cost you starter wins which is especially important if they are highly valued (like DraftDay where they are 10 points) and 2) if you’re stacking against some tomato can, you don’t really want him to be reinforced by a top bullpen because that could stunt your stack when the starter is lifted after two-plus innings and you didn’t get nearly the points you expected.
This is the outline for now as we start the season, but I’m certain I will be adding in-season as ideas pop up. In fact, if you have any pitching-related items you’d like to see included in the Weekly Report, please let me know in the comments or on Twitter. Also remember that any time we are dealing with projected starters, the key is the projected part of it. They are subject to change, especially the ones later in the week.
Editor’s Note: This report is compiled early Monday morning. Scheduled pitching assignments are subject to change throughout the week.
TOP 35 STARTS (JUST THE BEST, REGARDLESS OF PRICE)
We’re just looking for the best potential payoff here. A lot of these guys will be the expensive arms atop the slate, but that investment will likely pay dividends. These are the guys you will be looking to in 50/50s and H2H matchups because there is just little chance of a total meltdown.
| TOP 25 STARTS | ||||
| RK | PITCHER | OPP | DAY | NOTE |
| 1 | Clayton Kershaw | COL | Mon | He’s averaging 32 FPPG at DK and 17 FPPG at FD over his L17 starts |
| 2 | Zack Greinke | PIT | Sat | Allowed 5 ER in PHI back on Aug. 6th, has allowed 8 ER in his L7 starts combined (1.49 ERA in 48.3 IP) |
| 3 | Clayton Kershaw | PIT | Sun | He’s 9-2 w/a 1.41 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, and 134 Ks in 95.7 IP at home this year |
| 4 | Jake Arrieta | at PIT | Wed | Greinke is giving zero ground, but Arrieta doing all he can to make the Cy race tight (1.00 ERA in 117 IP over L16 starts) |
| 5 | Stephen Strasburg | MIA | Sun | First 10 starts: 6.55 ERA in 45.3 IP, last 9 starts: 2.38 ERA in 53 IP |
| 6 | David Price | at ATL | Wed | Hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER or fanned fewer than 6 in any start w/TOR (2.28 ERA, 65 Ks in 55.3 IP) |
| 7 | Stephen Strasburg | at PHI | Tue | He’s been knocked around on the road this year, but it’s more SSS than anything else; best road starts are at COL and PHI |
| 8 | Madison Bumgarner | ARI | Fri | 3 CG (2 of which were SHO) in 11 starts since the break (2.29 ERA, 91 Ks in 78.7 IP) |
| 9 | Jacob deGrom | MIA | Tue | 30% of his 20 ER since the break came in one game; still has a 2.89 ERA in the 10 starts w/72 Ks |
| 10 | Jose Fernandez | at WAS | Fri | Does more in 5 IP than many can do in 7 or 8; returned with 5 IP/0 ER, 3 base runners, and 7 Ks |
| 11 | Felix Hernandez | LAA | Tue | I was definitely worried, but three straight 8 IP outings cools those fears (1.88 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, and 24 Ks) |
| 12 | Chris Sale | at CLE | Fri | vs. MIN: 7.36 ERA in 33 IP; vs. rest of league: 2.73 ERA in 154.7 IP |
| 13 | Gerrit Cole | CHC | Tue | Not really different home and away this year; home: 2.74 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 81 Ks in 85.3 IP |
| 14 | Gerrit Cole | at LAD | Sun | Road: 2.36 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 94 Ks in 95.3 IP; has allowed 5 ER in 18 IP (3 starts) v. CHC & LAD |
| 15 | Jon Lester | STL | Sun | He has allowed just 6 ER in 32.3 IP v. PIT and STL this year |
| 16 | Dallas Keuchel | at TEX | Wed | Some of his best work has been v. TEX this year: 1.23 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, and 24 Ks in 22 IP |
| 17 | Jon Lester | at PIT | Tue | A 3.34 2H ERA doesn’t jump off the page, but 50% of 24 ER came in two ugly starts; has 1.93 ERA in other other (56 IP) |
| 18 | Max Scherzer | MIA | Fri | Finally an encouraging start from the struggling ace and he gets MIA again |
| 19 | Chris Archer | NYY | Wed | Has handled NYY throughout his career (2.18 ERA in 62 career IP) incl. 2.70 ERA and 21 Ks in 20 IP this year |
| 20 | Jordan Zimmermann | MIA | Sat | Has allowed just 1 ER in 4 of his L6; has 2.66 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 43 Ks in 44 IP over the entire six starts |
| 21 | Cole Hamels | SEA | Sat | Logged fewer than 7 IP just once in seven starts w/TEX; 4.07 ERA isn’t special in that time, but he’s pitching well overall |
| 22 | Michael Wacha | at CHC | Sat | Keep hearing he’s having a worse 2H which is technically true, but we’re talking a 2.93 to 3.00 ERA |
| 23 | Masahiro Tanaka | at NYM | Sun | Looking more like 2014 Tanaka over his L7: 2.55 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, and 45 Ks in 49.3 IP |
| 24 | Sonny Gray | at CWS | Mon | Has been markedly better on the road: 1.72 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 92 Ks in 94.3 IP |
| 25 | Cole Hamels | HOU | Mon | 7 of 22 ER w/TEX have come in his last IP; TEX maybe eschewing his overall numbers a little to get most out of their ace |
| 26 | Jordan Zimmermann | at PHI | Mon | Has allowed just 1 ER in 4 of his L6; has 2.66 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 43 Ks in 44 IP over the entire six starts |
| 27 | Derek Holland | HOU | Wed | Allowed 5 ER in SEA, but it was a rough start and rough finish: 5 Ks and 3 H in middle 5 IP |
| 28 | Jake Odorizzi | BAL | Sun | More than a run better at home: 2.61 ERA, 1.05 WHIP in 62 IP (3.66/1.17 in 83.7 IP on the road) |
| 29 | Jaime Garcia | at MIL | Wed | He was bound to have a dud sooner or later: allowed 9 ER in F7 starts since beginning of Aug before 6 ER at CIN |
| 30 | Garrett Richards | at SEA | Mon | 6 QS in L7 w/the L3 being especially good: 3.05 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 21 Ks in 20.7 IP |
| 31 | Noah Syndergaard | NYY | Sat | My concern w/young Mets SPs is a big lead could get them pulled early |
| 32 | Lance Lynn | at CHC | Fri | Biggest issue for Lynn is that when he’s off, he looks a fifth starter despite regularly looking like an ace when he’s on |
| 33 | Danny Salazar | KC | Wed | His weakness (HRs) isn’t a strength of the Royals (84 HRs, 28th v. RHP) |
| 34 | Carlos Carrasco | CWS | Sun | Rough return against these very same White Sox (2.7 IP/4 ER), but I’d still take a shot here |
| 35 | Collin McHugh | OAK | Sun | McHugh had allowed 7 ER in his previous 6 starts before 5.3 IP/5 ER at OAK; I’m not afraid to bet on him again v. OAK |
POTENTIAL VALUE STARTS (CHEAPER GUYS WORTH CONSIDERING)
These guys are very unlikely to be among the highest priced arms on the board, but obviously that juicy price point comes with risk. Just how much risk will vary depending on the slate, but there is almost always some value to be mined in the pitching pool. We swim in this pool understanding that they will bust at times and tank a lineup, but the potential upside is enough to incur that risk. These guys make great off-the-radar gambles for larger scale tournaments where you need some uniqueness to hit big.
| POTENTIAL VALUE STARTS | ||||
| RK | PITCHER | OPP | DAY | NOTE |
| 1 | Patrick Corbin | at SF | Sat | Quality starts in 6 of L7: 2.77 ERA with 35 Ks in 39 IP |
| 2 | Mike Leake | ARI | Sat | Was HR-free in 9 of L11 w/CIN, but has only one HR-free start w/SF (still 4 of 6 QS) |
| 3 | Carlos Rodon | OAK | Sat | 11 of his 18 HRs have been solo shots and that .225 BABIP is a big reason behind his season |
| 4 | Marco Estrada | at ATL | Thu | Has allowed 10 HR in L6 starts (3.63 ERA), 1 HR in previous 7 starts (2.55); ATL has fewest HRs v. RHP |
| 5 | Drew Smyly | BAL | Fri | Killer Sept. in three starts so far: 2.00 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 24 Ks in 18 IP |
| 6 | Mike Fiers | OAK | Fri | Even w/that 6 ER relief appearance, still has 3.07 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 43 Ks in 44 IP |
| 7 | Luis Severino | at TB | Wed | Not really deterred by TOR smacking him; was elite in F6 starts incl. 1 at TOR |
| 8 | Marcus Stroman | BOS | TBD | HR to Gardner was his only mistake in his return; solid SP2 option at sites using multiple SPs |
| 9 | Andrew Heaney | at MIN | Fri | Has rebounded from both of his duds w/a scoreless outing (5 IP/0 ER v. HOU after 5 IP/5 ER v. LAD) |
| 10 | J.A. Happ | CHC | Tue | Allowed 4 ER in initial start w/PIT, but has allowed 8 ER in 7 starts since (42 Ks in 40.3 IP) |
| 11 | Aaron Nola | WAS | Mon | Has 2.90 ERA and 28 Ks in last 31 IP (5 starts) even with 4 IP/6 ER outing included |
| 12 | John Lamb | at SF | Tue | 11 of his 19 ER have come in two starts; has 6+ Ks in five of his six starts |
| 13 | Bartolo Colon | MIA | Wed | Since getting smoked at COL (7 ER): 0.57 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 5.8 K:BB ratio in 31.7 IP |
POTENTIAL LANDMINES (QUALITY ARMS WHO COULD STUMBLE)
Sometimes you think you’ve got a great option for the day. Maybe he’s an expensive guy who has the track record worth trusting or perhaps you’re speculating a bit further down the list and feel like the matchup merits a gamble. However, that stud might not be as sturdy as you think and maybe the team your gamble is facing can’t hit on the whole, but the one thing they do well is the exact weakness of your gamble play. Every week will have potential landmines, upper- and mid-tier arms in a presumed rosterable spot who might actually be in for an implosion.
I changed this up a little bit to listing the offenses that are scary first and then naming the pitchers who could be in trouble against them. I didn’t list all pitchers facing them, but just those who you’d actually consider using at any point, whether it’s a stud or more of a value play. Let me know what you think of this change.
| POTENTIAL LANDMINES | |||
| RK | TEAM | PITCHERS IN DANGER | COMMENT |
| 1 | TOR V. ALL | Porcello, Miley, Hill | Hill threw a total gem on Sunday, but now gets TOR |
| 2 | COL AT HOME | Ross, Shields, Kennedy | Shields and Kennedy have big HR issues this year |
| 3 | KC V. ALL | Kluber, Salazar, Carrasco, Verlander | Scoring 5.1 R/G over the last month & they never K |
| 4 | ARI V. RHP | Shields, Ross, Cashner, Leake, Hudson | ARI is 10th v. RHP in wOBA since the break |
| 5 | NYY V. ALL | Archer, Odorizzi, Harvey, Matz, Syndergaard | That’s a ridiculously tough slate for NYY |
| 6 | DET V. ALL | Cueto, Santana, Medlen, Volquez | DET offense has swooned in the last month, but still dangerous |
| 7 | LAD V. ALL | Cole, Liriano, J.Gray | Also lagging, but trending up (4.8 R/G in 12 Sept. gms) |
| 8 | SF V. ALL | Corbin, Rubby, Lamb | 27th in R/G and 28th in wOBA over L30 days, but 12th & 7th YTD |
| 9 | TB V. LHP | Chen, Sabathia | Probably wouldn’t want either of these SPs anyway |
| 10 | BOS AT HOME | On the road all week… | …but BAL and TOR venues are nice, too |