2017 MLB DFS Preview – American League West
Hello RotoGrinders. Welcome to the AL West article to help you get prepared for MLB DFS Opening Day, which is just around the corner.
I’m planning to do an article for each division. The goal of these articles is to help prepare you for MLB DFS in terms of what has happened since you last played in September. I will be focused on highlighting new acquisitions, expected opening day starters, and share any pertinent information I come across (ex: Player A plans to run more, Player B is coming into camp in the best shape ever, Player C started taking steroids this offseason, etc.).
You can find me on Twitter here. With that said, let’s dive in:
Texas Rangers – 2016 Record: 95-67
Did you know that the Texas Rangers had the best record in the American League last year? That’s right, they had a better record than the Cleveland Indians (94-67) and the Boston Red Sox (93-69). This is impressive considering Texas was a 67-95 team just back in 2014. Give the Rangers credit, they’ve put themselves in a position to make a deep playoff run this year.
The Prince Fielder era is over, and so is the Mitch Moreland era. Mike Napoli signed a one-year deal to return to the Rangers and will be batting at the heart of their order. Odds are that he’ll make Rangers fans quickly forget about Fielder and Moreland.
Carlos Gomez resigned as well on a one-year deal to be the starting center fielder. Gomez had a down year where he only played 118 games with an OPS of .682, but he still found a way to hit 13 home runs and steal 18 bases. He’s only a few years removed from a 20/30 season and makes for a great DFS target.
The Rangers are littered with tons of promising, young talent. Jurickson Profar did not have a great rookie season but is slated to open as the starting left fielder. Rougned Odor had a career year and slugged 33 home runs, as well as Jose Bautista’s face. Nomar Mazara was a surprise – he hit 20 home runs in his rookie year and is only 20 years old.
Co-Aces Yu Darvish and Cole Hamels will look to anchor the rotation. Darvish is in the final year of his contract and will have extra incentive to come out firing. Andrew Cashner is battling tendinitis and is expected to open the year on the DL (what else is new?), but he should re-join the rotation shortly after his DL stint. Look for Chi Chi Gonzalez, Dillon Gee, or Nick Martinez to fill in for him, none of which are DFS worthy. The Rangers do have Tyson Ross, but he’s rehabbing from thoracic outlet syndrome and isn’t expected back for a few months.
Seattle Mariners – 2016 Record: 86-76
I’m going to be honest with you, out of every team preview I’ve done, trying to figure out the Mariners has been the hardest. Here’s what we know:
1. The Mariners have a powerful heart of the order – Last year, the Robinson Cano – Nelson Cruz – Kyle Seager trio hit a combined 112 home runs and 301 RBIs.To put this into context, the 2016 Baltimore Orioles trio of Manny Machado – Chris Davis – Mark Trumbo had 122 home runs and 288 RBIs. Add in the fact the Mariners now have a 20/30 guy in Jean Segura setting the table and this is a very impressive lineup.
2. Bye-Bye Daniel Vogelbach – Adam Lind is gone and Dae-Ho Lee went back home to Korea to sign the largest deal in KBO League history. The Mariners were going to give 24-year old rookie Daniel Vogelbach a chance to play against right handed pitchers, but he was just optioned to the minors. This means first base will be manned by Danny Valencia, who was acquired this off-season. Valencia should see starts at first base against left handers, as he’s a career .321 hitter against them with a .873 OPS. Now that Vogelbach was optioned, it’s possible Valencia is now a full-time player.
3. The Center Field Experiment – You could make the argument that the Mariners are starting three center fielders, which makes for an interesting thing to watch from a defensive perspective. The amount of ground Dyson, Martin, and Haniger can cover should help the pitching staff.
Speaking of Haniger, he is absolutely mashing this spring. In 2016, Haniger hit 5 home runs in 34 games. This spring through 51 at-bats, Haniger is batting .412 with 2 home runs, 3 stolen bases, and a 1.151 OPS. I’m not a believer that spring training stats necessarily carry over into the start of the season, but it might not hurt to throw Haniger into a Mariners stack early on and watch what happens. If he goes off, you can give good ol’ Allan at RotoGrinders the credit (if he fails, blame variance).
Update: March 31, 2017 – Drew Smyly Face will be out the first 6-8 weeks with a left flexor strain. Drew Sad Face.
4. The Pitching Staff Is Sketchy – Okay, let me make my point here before you blast me. Yes, the addition of Drew Smyly this off-season was a great move. He should see a significant boost in the wins category after only getting 7 last year with the Rays.
But I have some concerns about the starters around him. Felix Hernandez is in his age 30 prime but registered a K/9 of 7.2 last year, the lowest in his career. Hernandez had never been below 7.8, and that was back in 2008. It’s worth monitoring if Felix is starting to show signs of regression and age, or if it was just an off-year.
Hisashi Iwakuma is 35. James Paxton set career highs in starts (20) and innings pitched (121) last year, which is a sign he’s had a tendency to be injured. Yovani Gallardo was acquired from the Orioles for Seth Smith. I suppose you could make the case he’s at least someone who is reliable in the health department so far, but he’s not someone I ever want to use for DFS.
Houston Astros – 2016 Record: 84-78
After making the playoffs in 2015, the Houston Astros took a step back in 2016 by finishing six games over .500 but missing the playoffs. The Astros have re-tooled and made a flurry of moves this off-season. Brian McCann was acquired for two prospects to be the everyday catcher, pushing Evan Gattis to a backup role. Carlos Beltran signed a one-year deal to be the starting DH. Nori Aoki was claimed off waivers and will be the starting left fielder. Josh Reddick signed a four-year deal to be the starting right fielder. And Charlie Morton was signed to a two-year deal to bolster the starting rotation. Add in the fact the Astros already had a terrific core of young players in Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, Yulieski Gurriel, Ken Giles, and George Springer, and it would not surprise me if the Astros found a way to make the playoffs again in 2016. This is a very exciting team for DFS and the variations of stacks that can be made makes them very interesting.
Speaking of George Springer, there’s a report he will not be stealing much anymore. Springer was viewed as a 20/20 threat in the minors but with a conscious effort to scale down stolen bases, that’s a small dent on his DFS outlook.
Lance McCullers showed big promise in 2016 with 106 strikeouts in 81 innings, but had a 1.543 WHIP due to 45 walks. McCullers only gave up 80 hits and 5 home runs in those 81 innings, meaning the damage was mainly self-imposed. If McCullers can find a way to limit his walk rate, he could be a fantasy beast.
Los Angeles Angels – 2016 Record: 74-88
Despite having arguably the best player in baseball in Mike Trout, the Angels were 14 games under .500 due to a lack of starting pitching depth and power (the Angels finished 25th in the majors in home runs behind the Phillies). The starting pitching looks to still be an issue. Garrett Richards is working his way back from a UCL tear and has not looked sharp this spring. Ricky Nolasco is um, still Ricky Nolasco. Jesse Chavez signed a one-year deal to join the rotation. Matt Shoemaker remains a bright spot in this staff. There was a 12-game stretch last year where Shoemaker averaged 8 strikeouts per game, including four double-digit strikeout games.
Martin Maldonado was acquired for The Famous Jett Jackson Bandy (RIP) to be the starting catcher. To add some power, the Angels signed Luis Valbuena to a two year deal, traded for Danny Espinosa, and acquired Cameron Maybin. Valbuena hit 13 home runs in only 90 games last year, but hurt his hamstring this spring and will miss the first 4-6 weeks, allowing C.J. Cron to start at first base to begin the year. Espinosa swatted a career-high 24 home runs and Maybin posted an OPS of .801. Maybin is entering a contract year and will be motivated to prove last year wasn’t a fluke.
As if Mike Trout isn’t ridiculous enough, it’s being reported he wants to steal 40 bases this year, which he hasn’t done since 2012. Trout was 30/37 in steals last year so this is definitely not a lofty goal for someone of his caliber. This spring, Trout is 3/3 in steals in 13 games, and when you do the math that’s a 37-steal pace.
Oakland Athletics – 2016 Record: 69-93
Doing this writeup of the A’s is painful because I have family members who are Oakland A’s fans. My wife is an Oakland A’s fan. We recently moved to the East Bay to be closer to family after years in San Francisco, so I know the passion these A’s fans have. With that said, here’s my analysis:
They are still terrible. Go Giants!
The low-budget A’s did a great job adding some pieces to their offense. Under-appreciated Trevor Plouffe signed a one-year deal to be the everyday third baseman. Plouffe has two 20+ home run seasons under his belt and makes for a nice signing. Rajai Davis was signed to a one-year deal after leading the American League in steals last year with 43. Davis spent three years with the A’s earlier in his career and could be a sparkplug at the top of the lineup. Matt Joyce signed a two-year deal and is traditionally a platoon player, but given the lack of options in Oakland I’m guessing he’s more of a full-time player.
First base and DH are sort of an enigma. I’m seeing reports Yonder Alonso and Ryon Healy will platoon at first base. I’m also seeing reports Yonder Alonso will be the starting DH. Once rosters start to settle we should have a better idea how the A’s plan to sort this out.
The pitching is ugly and where the A’s are going to lose their games. Everybody’s favorite fraud Sonny Gray has a lat strain and is expected to miss parts of April. Kendall Graveman showed signs of promise last year but is not a strikeout pitcher (108 strikeouts in 186 innings), so his appeal in DFS formats like DraftKings is limited. Sean Manaea is probably the most interesting pitcher on this staff but makes for a risky play on FanDuel where the win is so heavily weighted into the scoring. Jharel Cotton Shirt is worth monitoring as a DFS sleeper – he had a 2.15 ERA and .82 WHIP with 23 strikeouts in 29.1 innings last year. This spring, Cotton has 10 strikeouts in 7.1 innings, so he could make for a sneaky play early in the season before DFSers catch on.
Thanks for reading!