Advanced Stats - Pitching: Friday, April 27th
Your Aces were cracked. Maybe multiple times this week. The chalk went up in flames. Maybe the difficult weather was a sign. It started on Tuesday when Charlie Morton couldn’t find the plate for some reason against the Angels. Then Clayton Kershaw walked six Marlins the next day. And then Chris Sale and Dylan Bundy. Meanwhile, guys who were thought to have no upside or even no chance in difficult spots laid the smack down (Trevor Richards and Michael Fulmer nearly doubled their season strikeout totals in single outings, Kyle Gibson dominated the Yankees, Lucas Giolito still has only struck out more than he’s walked in one start, but was good enough Thursday).
Such is the cycle of baseball. You need less variance? Find another sport. Charlie Blackmon can get shut out in a great spot at Coors (that too happened this week). Your Aces are going to lose 20% of the time and that may even mean twice or three times in a row occasionally. A .200 hitter might go three for three. Maybe your process is flawed and it’s time to reflect. But maybe baseball just happened and you just need to persist.
As I responded to a Brian Kenny tweet about Harold Reynolds being right this week: I once saw Al Leiter hit a triple. These things happen. But today’s biggest question? Why am I rambling like this on a day with just one afternoon game and 28 pitchers to write about?
Everything below is entirely comprised of 2018 stats where it’s supposed to be, unless multi-year stats are being used. The exceptions are DRA, which Baseball Prospectus has not calculated for 2018 yet and Statcast Home/Away xwOBA (actually all Home/Away), which combines last season with this one.
Shading issues, which some of you asked about when last we spoke (and it’s probably obvious where they occur), are being addressed by some very busy people who may have larger priorities right now (check out the new Stolen Base Threat Ratings, conditional formatting in PlateIQ and Umpire Ratings in LineupHQ with more to come). I’d probably make matters worse if I tried to fix it myself, but they will be fixed. I’m hopeful by Monday.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | -0.1 | 3.59 | 5.9 | 52.4% | 0.97 | 2.98 | 3.38 | Braves | 111 | 105 | 106 |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 5.7 | 3.77 | 4.4 | 30.7% | 0.93 | 3.10 | 3.13 | Yankees | 107 | 131 | 150 |
| Blake Snell | Rays | -2 | 4.55 | 5.1 | 40.5% | 1.10 | 4.95 | 2.56 | Red Sox | 129 | 51 | 56 |
| Brent Suter | Brewers | -4.9 | 4.42 | 5.0 | 41.3% | 1.01 | 4.25 | 3.99 | Cubs | 123 | 94 | 127 |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | 5.1 | 5.18 | 5.2 | 40.3% | 0.99 | 6.07 | 5.29 | Tigers | 82 | 99 | 115 |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | -1.3 | 4.21 | 6.0 | 59.7% | 0.91 | 3.64 | 5.03 | Mets | 77 | 75 | 66 |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 27 | 3.08 | 6.9 | 44.3% | 1.06 | 2.21 | 4.10 | Mariners | 108 | 96 | 124 |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | -23.8 | 3.71 | 6.3 | 61.3% | 0.87 | 3.42 | 3.53 | Athletics | 124 | 114 | 118 |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | -3.4 | 3.94 | 6.1 | 37.6% | 1.04 | 4.16 | 4.46 | White Sox | 116 | 87 | 93 |
| Derek Holland | Giants | 3.2 | 5.28 | 5.2 | 37.8% | 0.93 | 5.41 | 4.35 | Dodgers | 92 | 80 | 94 |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | -3.7 | 4.08 | 5.5 | 44.3% | 1.10 | 3.89 | 2.87 | Rays | 103 | 103 | 169 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | Mariners | 4.29 | 5.3 | 46.7% | 1.06 | 4.56 | 5.48 | Indians | 82 | 80 | 99 | |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | 0.1 | 4.23 | 5.2 | 45.9% | 0.93 | 4.44 | 2.38 | Giants | 99 | 78 | 107 |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 3.1 | 3.47 | 6.4 | 45.6% | 0.91 | 3.25 | 1.96 | Padres | 93 | 85 | 63 |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | -1.6 | 4.97 | 5.4 | 45.1% | 0.88 | 5.30 | 4.15 | Rockies | 81 | 57 | 111 |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 10.5 | 4.40 | 6.0 | 39.2% | 0.97 | 4.78 | 3.24 | Phillies | 106 | 90 | 88 |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | -2.5 | 3.78 | 5.9 | 56.2% | 1.05 | 3.65 | 4.72 | Twins | 79 | 92 | 84 |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 1.4 | 3.45 | 5.8 | 48.4% | 0.93 | 3.05 | 3.21 | Angels | 93 | 104 | 72 |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | -12.6 | 3.72 | 6.1 | 61.5% | 1.04 | 3.42 | 3.75 | Rangers | 81 | 83 | 91 |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | -5.2 | 4.42 | 5.5 | 43.2% | 0.99 | 4.67 | 5.19 | Orioles | 62 | 72 | 71 |
| Mike Minor | Rangers | -7.1 | 3.33 | 5.3 | 39.3% | 1.04 | 4.09 | 4.24 | Blue Jays | 108 | 85 | 66 |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | 2.2 | 3.52 | 6.5 | 49.4% | 0.98 | 3.82 | 3.93 | Pirates | 122 | 97 | 100 |
| Phil Hughes | Twins | 0.1 | 5.36 | 4.8 | 30.3% | 1.05 | 4.88 | 6.01 | Reds | 64 | 71 | 94 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | -5.2 | 4.93 | 5.6 | 35.3% | 1.04 | 5.33 | 5.07 | Royals | 88 | 80 | 90 |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | 0.9 | 4.22 | 5.8 | 44.5% | 0.87 | 4.69 | 3.64 | Astros | 94 | 114 | 144 |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | -16.3 | 3.30 | 6.2 | 42.7% | 1.01 | 3.38 | 3.08 | Diamondbacks | 102 | 94 | 108 |
| Steven Brault | Pirates | 2.6 | 5.14 | 4.7 | 43.6% | 0.98 | 6.04 | 5.99 | Cardinals | 120 | 91 | 117 |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | 16.9 | 4.07 | 5.6 | 45.1% | 0.88 | 4.47 | 5.29 | Marlins | 84 | 105 | 87 |
| Yu Darvish | Cubs | 5 | 3.56 | 5.9 | 40.5% | 1.01 | 4.06 | 5.99 | Brewers | 92 | 98 | 102 |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 11.2 | 3.79 | 5.9 | 55.0% | 1.01 | 3.16 | 4.28 | Nationals | 83 | 107 | 82 |
Aaron Nola got his act together last time out, striking out nine Pirates and has now gone at least six innings in three straight and has not allowed a run this year. His strikeout rate for the season is only league average now with the ground ball rate a bit below 50%, but his -11.8 Hard-Soft% is best on the board as is his 2.4% Barrels/BBE. His .260 xwOBA and 25.9% 95+ mph EV is second. In other words, been a great contact manager so far. Not always as predictive as swinging strike rate or velocity, but it’s never bad when a guy is generating weak contact. The Braves are not an easy bunch and don’t strike out a lot, but enough and don’t have a ton of power. The park in Philly is more power friendly than a positive run environment.
Blake Snell has pitched into the seventh inning in two straight starts, striking out 15 of 48, but perhaps most importantly, not issuing a single walk after it had been a problem through his first three starts (10). Not to rehash the alterations he made last season (more curveballs and swings outside the zone), but that’s not something he continued doing once 2018 started. He’s actually just been throwing more strikes in the zone, which gets him more swings outside of it the last two starts as well. His swinging strike rate has been above 13% in each of his last four starts. He’s also managing contact well, perhaps easier as a fly ball pitcher in Tampa Bay and more of a concern in other AL East parks. Fenway could be one of those, but all of a sudden, the Red Sox are really struggling against LHP (51 wRC+, 23.8 K%, 5.3 HR/FB). They’re really struggling overall (56 wRC+, 27.1 K% last seven days).
Corey Kluber is the most expensive of the four $10K+ pitchers on both sites tonight. I know what you’re thinking because I’m thinking it too. This (bleep) is contagious. It’s not even a good matchup at home against the Mariners. I can’t tell you it’s going to be alright, but trust the process. He’s missed seven innings in just one start this year and even then by a single out. He did allow two HRs and strike out just four in his last start in Baltimore, so maybe he already got it out of the way. That qualifies as a poor outing for him. He has a .213 xwOBA at home since last season.
Dallas Keuchel has been more effective in his last two starts (14 IP – 3 ER – 2 HR – 3 BB – 12 K – 55 BF – 55 GB% – -12.5 Hard-Soft%). The strikeout rate is not above average like it’s been in the past and the ground ball rate isn’t best in the league, but the contact quality is there (-7.8 Hard-Soft%, 3.4% Barrels/BBE). The A’s are a tough offense. They hit the ball hard (26.4 Hard-Soft% vs LHP), but if he can keep it low and get them to chase down out of the strike zone, he may be able to manipulate a young offense into pounding the ball into the ground with enough strikeouts to be useful.
Danny Duffy showed a flash two starts back (struck out eight in six shutout innings with two hits against the Blue Jays) before getting throttled by the Tigers last time out. The good news is that the velocity has bumped back up after a scare in his first start. It’s been a lot of up and down with some bright spots and a few things to be concerned about in this profile. The upside against a banged up offense with a 29.2 K% (but also a 22 HR/FB) vs LHP is interesting.
Jacob deGrom has had the goods last two times out, striking out 22 of 54 batters in 14.1 innings. He tops the board with a 14.6 SwStr%, 26.1 IFFB%, and .235 xwOBA. He now gets to face the Padres (28.4 K% vs RHP, 31.5 K% last seven days).
Jose Urena has a career high SwStr% (by two full points) and has been above 11% in three straight starts. Last year, he was a strong contact manager and it’s been quite opposite this year (29.6 Hard-Soft%, 90.4 mph aEV). He’s throwing a few more sliders, a good bat missing pitch, but nothing else seems to be that much different other than a 14.7 point drop in a strand rate that was unsustainable at 79% last year, but may be similarly so on the low side right now. He might have the top matchup on the board, hosting the Rockies (57 wRC+, 23.2 K%, 2.9 Hard-Soft% vs RHP).
Julio Teheran is coming off a nice three start run (19 IP – 3 ER – 1 HR – 8 BB – 22 K – 76 BF). He increased his slider usage against the Phillies and Nationals, but then threw 70% fastballs at a more left-handed Mets lineup that he somehow always seems to have some success against. An 84.4 LOB% won’t sustain, but it’s nice to see the strikeout rate back up, which it’s really been since post-All-Star break last year. The Phillies have a 27.5 K% vs RHP and not a lot of dangerous left-handed bats to threaten him with.
Luis Severino is in line with most of his numbers from last season, though for some reason hasn’t seemed as dominant. He’s struck out at least six in every start (though no more than eight) and has gone seven innings twice in five starts. He’s walked a few more batters, but his ground ball rate is still above average if not quite 50% and the contact quality has been an early improvement (1.4 Hard-Soft%, 31.1 Hard-Soft%). The matchup is a bit of a concern. He did dominate RHBs last year, so it’s not like he shouldn’t be expected to perform well against a predominantly right-handed lineup, but the Angels don’t strike out a lot (19.3% vs RHP).
Mike Minor has a few things going on here. He’s missing a bunch of bats, which is nice, but not really fooling many (44.1 Z-O-Swing%), which has led to more hard contact than you’d like to see (90.2 mph aEV, 10.5% Barrels/BBE). At least he gets out of Texas and the Blue Jays are missing their top right-handed bat (85 wRC+ vs LHP).
Stephen Strasburg struck out a season high 10 last time out and has gone at least six innings in every start. The Diamondbacks have a 25.5 K% and I don’t understand how they keep winning when I look at that lineup. He may be over-shadowed by Scherzer, but he’s now only had one season of his career below a 20 K-BB%.
Tyler Anderson has not shown a lot of consistency, but has gone six innings with two runs or less in three of his last four and has struck out at least six in three straight starts. One of those had six walks though. What the hell happened the ground ball rate here though? It was 50% two years ago and now 21.2%? He’s not allowing a lot of hard contact though (26.5% 95+ mph) and is facing the Marlins on the road. Wait, the Marlins have been good against LHP (105 wRC+, 10.3 K-BB%). They did just embarrass Kershaw. I’m not buying it yet.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.299 BABIP – 72.1 LOB% – 14.2 HR/FB)
Sean Manaea (.135 – 100% – 11.1) no hit the Red Sox with 10 strikeouts last time out. He didn’t even throw that many pitches (108). I’m a fan. I have been touting him for a while and he’s still not even that expensive (less than $9K still), but this is another really tough spot, even if the Astros are striking out much more often against southpaws so far. There are enough options to easily justify bypassing the risk and I think he may be over-bought here. If I’m wrong and he’s projecting at a low ownership rate later (his price tag may still make him a difficult fit), there’s enough optimism to throw him in a GPP lineup or two.
Hyun-Jin Ryu (_.200 – 81.6% – 5.9) threw seven shutout innings with just two hits allowed, while striking out eight against a banged up Nationals offense. He’s missed bats and managed contact well. He’s not in a bad spot in San Francisco, but he’s completed seven innings only three times in 28 starts since the start of last season and costs a ridiculous $11.1K on DraftKings. His $3.3K price disparity is the largest on the board by over $1K. He’s not a terrible choice for $7.8K on FanDuel however.
Reynaldo Lopez (.175 – 90.9% – 6.9) followed up 10 strikeouts with two, though the latter was against the Astros. The larger concern is 13 walks over his last three starts, though he still has only allowed a total of four earned runs through four starts. He abandoned his curveball last year and the strikeouts plummeted. He’s picked up a slider this season and now has a league average SwStr%, though it was really brought down by his 4% mark against Houston last time out. Regardless of all this, I think he has enough strikeout upside to be useful at a reasonable cost in a quality matchup, which this all seems to be, until you see how infrequently the Royals are striking out (16.1% vs RHP).
Mike Fiers (.317 – 67.6% – 9.1) has three unearned runs, which is not a lot, but is also 30% of his total through three starts. He’s in a high strikeout spot (O’s 26.4% vs RHP), but this is a pitching rich board and he did not strikeout a single one of 27 Royals in his last start.
Steven Brault (.243 – 69.5% – 6.9) …c’mon, even this guy has a double digit SwStr%?? Where does it end?
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Mike Mikolas is fine today. He really is. He’s missing enough bats and he’s reasonably priced in a decent spot. He’s even pitched into the seventh in three straight starts, which is probably the most desirable part of his profile. It’s just that nothing stands out. It’s hard to see him piling up strikeouts. We don’t need a guy who’s just there tonight. Maybe if you want a decent floor in cash games, but you’re going to need someone who goes off in your second spot to win a GPP. This board is just too loaded with potential. On a standard seven or eight game slate, he might be as high as a third tier guy.
Zack Godley did follow up a six walk, four strikeout affair with eight strikeouts and one walk. In fact, six of his eight walks this season came in that one start in LA. Seems like a fluke, but after going seven in each of his first two starts, he’s gone a total of 9.1 innings in his last two, failing to eclipse 95 pitches in either. It’s still the same desirable combination of missed bats (12.3 SwStr%) and ground balls (58.1%) that we like to see in daily fantasy. The 93 Z-Contact% stands out though, and not in a good way. The thing is, nobody is swinging at much of anything at all (39.7 Swing% – not shown below). Despite the lack of quality left-handed hitters behind Harper (Adams is okay), the Nationals have been solid against RHP (107 wRC+, 8.8 K-BB%). He too, may be as high as a third tier guy on a different board, for different reasons than Mikolas. It’s just that this board is loaded and I’m suddenly unsure of his workload. I’d rather use Nola or find a way to pay up if I find myself with $9K left over. If he somehow fits in your SP2 spot on DraftKings, I’m perfectly fine with that. I don’t think you get there though.
Luis Castillo is probably not as bad as his ERA, but is not what he’s been. His velocity is a mile and a half lower this season with his most recent start the lowest of all. While he’s still missing bats at an elite rate, it’s not turning into as many strikeouts and looks a bit less impressive when you consider his 21.2 SwStr% in his first start. He’s walked at least three in three of five starts and the contact has been a bit harder than you’d like. The Twins have not been that good, but have a bit more pop than you might realize against RHP.
Drew Pomeranz did impressively strike out seven of 19 batters faced in his first start of the season in Oakland, but only threw 88 pitches and had just a 4.6 SwStr%. He’s not expensive and the Rays have a 25.2 K% vs LHP, but he doesn’t often go deep into games (six innings in just 18 of 32 starts last year and more than six in just eight), it’s a tough park in Boston and the Rays have been on fire, though the latter is probably of the least concern here considering the lineup they regularly field these days.
Marcus Stroman is really cheap. Maybe too cheap for a guy with a 21.7 K% and 69.4 GB%, but those ground balls are being hit really hard and so are the few that haven’t been on the ground. Good lord, look at his Statcast board!! I have no love for this Texas offense, especially on the road, just look at the numbers, but they do make a lot of hard contact matching up their strength with his weakness. This isn’t a new thing with him either, though it’s been much more extreme this year. It’s why his BABIP has always been above .300.
Clayton Richards only has a 50.6 GB%, which means lock in a few Mets RHBs. He’s allowed five HRs over his last three starts, two of them at home.
Derek Holland doesn’t look as bad as previously by his estimators, but then when you realize the K% is probably a fluke (3.97 K/SwStr) and so is the BABIP (.218), then you realize the strand rate (51.7%) regression isn’t going to solve that many things. The Dodgers, however, have been bad. The Marlins…the bleepin’ minor league pitchers from the Marlins…just shut them down.
Andrew Heaney might be someone to talk about if he continues his current path (see K% and aEV), but it’s only been two starts in which he’s also allowed three HRs and we’d rather avoid the Yankees if we can.
Chris Tillman has an 8.09 FIP and .479 xwOBA. I can’t believe I’ll be stacking Tigers tonight, but now we can pay up for Kluber/deGrom.
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | L2 Yrs | 25.1% | 6.9% | 11.9% | 5.9% | Season | 20.2% | 7.6% | 7.1% | -11.8% | Home | 29.6% | 6.3% | 14.1% | 1.5% | L14Days | 22.9% | 2.1% | 6.7% | -13.9% |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | L2 Yrs | 27.8% | 8.3% | 37.5% | 26.1% | Season | 30.2% | 7.0% | 30.0% | -3.7% | Home | 29.9% | 7.5% | 50.0% | 23.8% | L14Days | 30.2% | 7.0% | 30.0% | -3.7% |
| Blake Snell | Rays | L2 Yrs | 23.4% | 11.5% | 9.1% | 11.6% | Season | 29.1% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 7.3% | Road | 20.5% | 13.0% | 11.4% | 11.4% | L14Days | 31.3% | 6.3% | 12.1% | |
| Brent Suter | Brewers | L2 Yrs | 18.0% | 6.0% | 10.4% | 6.5% | Season | 16.7% | 5.3% | 9.1% | 6.9% | Road | 16.4% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 2.7% | L14Days | 18.2% | 2.3% | 16.7% | 17.2% |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | L2 Yrs | 16.7% | 10.4% | 15.5% | 18.7% | Season | 8.9% | 12.2% | 20.8% | 31.4% | Home | 12.5% | 11.9% | 21.1% | 17.1% | L14Days | 12.2% | 7.3% | 40.0% | 43.7% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Yrs | 16.7% | 8.0% | 17.7% | 15.0% | Season | 18.3% | 10.8% | 22.7% | 18.8% | Home | 18.4% | 6.8% | 14.1% | 17.4% | L14Days | 19.2% | 12.8% | 27.3% | 34.3% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Yrs | 30.1% | 5.7% | 12.1% | 6.4% | Season | 27.4% | 4.4% | 12.5% | 15.2% | Home | 37.2% | 4.8% | 8.3% | -3.8% | L14Days | 18.5% | 3.7% | 12.5% | 11.9% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Yrs | 21.0% | 7.4% | 18.4% | 3.0% | Season | 19.8% | 9.5% | 12.5% | -7.8% | Home | 20.8% | 8.4% | 10.5% | -4.3% | L14Days | 21.8% | 5.5% | 16.7% | -12.5% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Yrs | 23.6% | 6.6% | 10.8% | 16.6% | Season | 21.4% | 11.1% | 12.5% | 27.9% | Home | 22.2% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 17.8% | L14Days | 20.4% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 20.6% |
| Derek Holland | Giants | L2 Yrs | 16.3% | 10.1% | 15.0% | 18.3% | Season | 25.0% | 8.0% | 12.9% | 22.0% | Home | 19.2% | 12.9% | 14.6% | 18.9% | L14Days | 21.7% | 6.5% | 22.2% | 27.3% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | L2 Yrs | 24.6% | 9.1% | 12.6% | 12.7% | Season | 36.8% | 10.5% | 50.0% | Home | 25.1% | 8.3% | 11.8% | 15.6% | L14Days | 36.8% | 10.5% | 50.0% | ||
| Erasmo Ramirez | Mariners | L2 Yrs | 18.2% | 6.5% | 15.6% | 17.9% | Season | 5.0% | 5.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | Road | 17.6% | 6.2% | 18.2% | 26.9% | L14Days | 5.0% | 5.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | L2 Yrs | 22.5% | 8.6% | 17.0% | 17.8% | Season | 30.7% | 10.2% | 5.9% | 11.8% | Road | 21.0% | 9.5% | 14.7% | 18.2% | L14Days | 35.4% | 6.3% | 12.5% | 14.8% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Yrs | 27.3% | 6.8% | 14.2% | 9.8% | Season | 31.5% | 6.3% | 8.7% | -9.0% | Road | 27.0% | 5.9% | 17.4% | 9.7% | L14Days | 40.7% | 5.6% | 10.0% | -17.2% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | L2 Yrs | 15.9% | 8.5% | 13.0% | 14.2% | Season | 18.3% | 7.8% | 10.7% | 29.6% | Home | 14.7% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 14.8% | L14Days | 17.0% | 6.4% | 9.1% | 48.6% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Yrs | 20.7% | 7.5% | 12.0% | 11.6% | Season | 23.5% | 12.2% | 15.2% | 22.0% | Road | 20.2% | 8.6% | 11.3% | 8.8% | L14Days | 30.0% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 25.8% |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | L2 Yrs | 25.5% | 9.0% | 18.0% | 9.1% | Season | 20.0% | 9.2% | 20.0% | 12.9% | Road | 24.0% | 9.0% | 13.5% | 6.5% | L14Days | 21.6% | 13.7% | 12.5% | 18.1% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | L2 Yrs | 27.9% | 7.4% | 13.3% | 7.7% | Season | 28.6% | 8.4% | 3.8% | 1.4% | Road | 29.5% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.6% | L14Days | 30.4% | 6.5% | 6.3% | -7.2% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Yrs | 20.1% | 7.4% | 17.6% | 13.4% | Season | 21.7% | 14.4% | 20.0% | 32.3% | Home | 20.9% | 7.5% | 14.7% | 10.0% | L14Days | 19.6% | 11.8% | 25.0% | 45.8% |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | L2 Yrs | 19.8% | 7.6% | 16.1% | 14.1% | Season | 13.2% | 4.0% | 9.1% | 19.4% | Road | 22.3% | 10.1% | 20.8% | 9.4% | L14Days | 7.4% | 3.7% | 12.5% | 31.2% |
| Mike Minor | Rangers | L2 Yrs | 27.5% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 9.4% | Season | 23.3% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 24.6% | Road | 25.5% | 9.8% | 2.6% | 3.1% | L14Days | 17.8% | 4.4% | 8.3% | 27.2% |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | L2 Yrs | 19.1% | 1.9% | 17.4% | 16.8% | Season | 19.1% | 1.9% | 17.4% | 16.8% | Road | 17.7% | 3.9% | 30.8% | 25.0% | L14Days | 18.9% | 3.8% | 7.1% | 12.2% |
| Phil Hughes | Twins | L2 Yrs | 13.2% | 5.8% | 14.5% | 30.1% | Season | 12.5% | 12.5% | 20.0% | 66.7% | Home | 17.7% | 5.2% | 19.4% | 33.7% | L14Days | 12.5% | 12.5% | 20.0% | 66.7% |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | L2 Yrs | 18.8% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 8.4% | Season | 23.7% | 15.5% | 6.9% | 5.1% | Road | 19.4% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 11.4% | L14Days | 24.5% | 16.3% | 6.7% | 3.4% |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | L2 Yrs | 20.8% | 6.9% | 11.9% | 16.7% | Season | 23.1% | 4.6% | 11.1% | 15.0% | Road | 19.3% | 6.9% | 13.0% | 21.1% | L14Days | 25.5% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.4% |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | L2 Yrs | 29.6% | 7.0% | 11.0% | 5.6% | Season | 27.1% | 6.0% | 21.4% | 3.4% | Home | 28.1% | 5.9% | 10.9% | 9.5% | L14Days | 29.4% | 5.9% | 21.4% | -3.1% |
| Steven Brault | Pirates | L2 Yrs | 15.6% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 11.5% | Season | 14.9% | 11.9% | 6.9% | 16.7% | Home | 9.8% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 12.2% | L14Days | 11.4% | 11.4% | 6.7% | 12.2% |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | L2 Yrs | 21.8% | 7.2% | 14.6% | 6.1% | Season | 24.8% | 12.8% | 9.1% | 10.3% | Road | 21.5% | 9.2% | 22.2% | 13.9% | L14Days | 26.7% | 17.8% | 6.3% | 12.0% |
| Yu Darvish | Cubs | L2 Yrs | 28.4% | 7.9% | 14.0% | 10.4% | Season | 22.8% | 12.0% | 14.3% | 6.9% | Home | 25.5% | 8.0% | 17.6% | 14.8% | L14Days | 16.0% | 16.0% | 9.1% | -3.0% |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | L2 Yrs | 23.6% | 8.1% | 15.8% | 13.2% | Season | 25.3% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 6.4% | Road | 26.6% | 9.1% | 13.2% | 8.0% | L14Days | 26.1% | 15.2% | 20.0% | -7.4% |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | Road | 19.7% | 9.0% | 14.0% | 8.2% | RH | 20.9% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 9.5% | L7Days | 23.9% | 6.8% | 14.3% | 16.2% |
| Yankees | Road | 21.9% | 9.0% | 13.4% | 10.0% | LH | 20.6% | 13.6% | 17.0% | 13.3% | L7Days | 24.5% | 11.5% | 23.9% | 27.9% |
| Red Sox | Home | 17.0% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 19.1% | LH | 23.8% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 6.3% | L7Days | 27.1% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 19.0% |
| Cubs | Home | 18.8% | 8.4% | 11.6% | 4.1% | LH | 23.2% | 10.2% | 6.5% | 16.9% | L7Days | 20.6% | 6.7% | 12.9% | 6.5% |
| Tigers | Road | 21.6% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 14.9% | RH | 18.7% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 21.8% | L7Days | 15.8% | 7.0% | 10.7% | 29.6% |
| Mets | Road | 24.5% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 14.7% | LH | 27.4% | 11.3% | 2.8% | 13.2% | L7Days | 22.2% | 9.7% | 4.0% | 14.0% |
| Mariners | Road | 17.6% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 18.9% | RH | 20.6% | 6.5% | 13.0% | 12.5% | L7Days | 16.4% | 6.2% | 11.1% | 23.5% |
| Athletics | Road | 21.6% | 8.6% | 17.5% | 28.1% | LH | 22.6% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 26.4% | L7Days | 20.8% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 35.8% |
| White Sox | Road | 25.6% | 7.3% | 25.3% | 26.8% | LH | 29.2% | 8.6% | 22.0% | 19.9% | L7Days | 23.8% | 5.6% | 15.6% | 2.4% |
| Dodgers | Road | 19.6% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 15.5% | LH | 23.4% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 16.4% | L7Days | 28.3% | 10.4% | 12.0% | 13.5% |
| Rays | Road | 23.0% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 7.5% | LH | 25.2% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 15.9% | L7Days | 22.8% | 6.8% | 18.8% | 29.3% |
| Indians | Home | 21.0% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 24.1% | RH | 24.3% | 7.8% | 13.5% | 18.5% | L7Days | 24.4% | 8.5% | 13.9% | 16.5% |
| Giants | Home | 23.9% | 7.6% | 14.6% | 19.7% | LH | 25.4% | 8.3% | 13.8% | 18.4% | L7Days | 26.0% | 7.2% | 16.7% | 16.5% |
| Padres | Home | 26.0% | 9.0% | 13.4% | 20.8% | RH | 28.4% | 8.5% | 12.6% | 15.8% | L7Days | 31.5% | 7.4% | 12.1% | 19.0% |
| Rockies | Road | 24.5% | 8.9% | 15.6% | 7.9% | RH | 23.2% | 8.2% | 12.0% | 2.9% | L7Days | 23.7% | 11.0% | 15.8% | 12.3% |
| Phillies | Home | 26.5% | 10.7% | 12.8% | 10.7% | RH | 27.5% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 9.3% | L7Days | 28.1% | 7.8% | 4.4% | 13.9% |
| Twins | Home | 25.5% | 10.7% | 7.3% | 9.6% | RH | 24.2% | 9.9% | 12.0% | 16.1% | L7Days | 24.4% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 14.3% |
| Angels | Home | 22.4% | 8.7% | 15.4% | 17.7% | RH | 19.3% | 6.3% | 12.7% | 19.6% | L7Days | 25.2% | 8.7% | 14.1% | 14.2% |
| Rangers | Road | 24.7% | 5.9% | 14.7% | 24.0% | RH | 24.4% | 8.6% | 12.0% | 23.9% | L7Days | 23.1% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 25.5% |
| Orioles | Home | 24.0% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 9.2% | RH | 26.4% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 8.7% | L7Days | 22.2% | 5.3% | 10.3% | 13.6% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 24.8% | 9.7% | 16.7% | 13.2% | LH | 21.3% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 17.1% | L7Days | 21.4% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 2.6% |
| Pirates | Home | 16.6% | 10.5% | 8.4% | 6.5% | RH | 20.1% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 10.4% | L7Days | 22.3% | 8.0% | 9.1% | -4.2% |
| Reds | Road | 21.4% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 11.7% | RH | 22.5% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 12.0% | L7Days | 18.4% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 26.6% |
| Royals | Home | 19.2% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 26.1% | RH | 16.1% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 21.2% | L7Days | 15.8% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 25.3% |
| Astros | Home | 24.5% | 9.5% | 14.9% | 7.0% | LH | 24.0% | 8.3% | 14.6% | 11.2% | L7Days | 20.1% | 12.7% | 13.4% | 6.1% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 26.8% | 10.1% | 17.3% | 18.3% | RH | 25.5% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 16.4% | L7Days | 26.1% | 13.5% | 15.7% | 20.3% |
| Cardinals | Road | 24.4% | 10.7% | 21.4% | 15.5% | LH | 24.0% | 13.0% | 11.6% | 17.0% | L7Days | 18.4% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 29.1% |
| Marlins | Home | 20.9% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 4.9% | LH | 21.5% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 7.7% | L7Days | 27.9% | 8.7% | 12.2% | 7.1% |
| Brewers | Road | 18.7% | 7.3% | 11.4% | 7.1% | RH | 23.4% | 8.5% | 15.4% | 12.2% | L7Days | 20.5% | 10.5% | 14.3% | 20.7% |
| Nationals | Home | 23.4% | 11.4% | 8.2% | 11.3% | RH | 20.4% | 11.6% | 12.8% | 13.7% | L7Days | 19.7% | 9.8% | 6.8% | 15.9% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | 20.2% | 9.0% | 2.24 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 2.24 |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 30.2% | 12.4% | 2.44 | 30.2% | 12.4% | 2.44 |
| Blake Snell | Rays | 29.1% | 13.7% | 2.12 | 29.1% | 13.7% | 2.12 |
| Brent Suter | Brewers | 16.7% | 8.5% | 1.96 | 16.7% | 8.5% | 1.96 |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | 8.9% | 4.6% | 1.93 | 8.9% | 4.6% | 1.93 |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 18.3% | 8.4% | 2.18 | 18.3% | 8.4% | 2.18 |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 27.4% | 10.8% | 2.54 | 27.4% | 10.8% | 2.54 |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 19.8% | 8.9% | 2.22 | 19.8% | 8.9% | 2.22 |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 21.4% | 8.6% | 2.49 | 21.4% | 8.6% | 2.49 |
| Derek Holland | Giants | 25.0% | 6.3% | 3.97 | 25.0% | 6.3% | 3.97 |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | 36.8% | 4.6% | 8.00 | 36.8% | 4.6% | 8.00 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | Mariners | 5.0% | 4.5% | 1.11 | 5.0% | 4.5% | 1.11 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | 30.7% | 11.0% | 2.79 | 30.7% | 11.0% | 2.79 |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 31.5% | 14.6% | 2.16 | 31.5% | 14.6% | 2.16 |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | 18.3% | 10.8% | 1.69 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 1.69 |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 23.5% | 12.8% | 1.84 | 23.5% | 12.8% | 1.84 |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | 20.0% | 14.1% | 1.42 | 20.0% | 14.1% | 1.42 |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 28.6% | 13.3% | 2.15 | 28.6% | 13.3% | 2.15 |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | 21.7% | 9.7% | 2.24 | 21.7% | 9.7% | 2.24 |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | 13.2% | 10.4% | 1.27 | 13.2% | 10.4% | 1.27 |
| Mike Minor | Rangers | 23.3% | 11.9% | 1.96 | 23.3% | 11.9% | 1.96 |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | 19.1% | 8.9% | 2.15 | 19.1% | 8.9% | 2.15 |
| Phil Hughes | Twins | 12.5% | 7.1% | 1.76 | 12.5% | 7.1% | 1.76 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | 23.7% | 9.8% | 2.42 | 23.7% | 9.8% | 2.42 |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | 23.1% | 11.0% | 2.10 | 23.1% | 11.0% | 2.10 |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | 27.1% | 11.3% | 2.40 | 27.1% | 11.3% | 2.40 |
| Steven Brault | Pirates | 14.9% | 11.3% | 1.32 | 14.9% | 11.3% | 1.32 |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | 24.8% | 14.3% | 1.73 | 24.8% | 14.3% | 1.73 |
| Yu Darvish | Cubs | 22.8% | 8.9% | 2.56 | 22.8% | 8.9% | 2.56 |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 25.3% | 12.3% | 2.06 | 25.3% | 12.3% | 2.06 |
I was blown away to see 16 pitchers with a double digit SwStr% today. I thought that was really good and guess I was then not that surprised to see the early league rate for starting pitchers is 10.2% so far. That still means 16 pitchers are above average today, but maybe “just” a double digit SwStr% is not so impressive anymore.
Jose Urena is a guy that throws hard, but fastballs don’t miss a lot of bats in and of themselves unless they are set up by other pitches and the fastball can also set up a wipe out slider. He may have finally begun learning this. He’s missing more bats this year, though they haven’t turned into a ton of strikeouts yet. Yeah, it’s not much above average, but 10.8% is still above average, which is the important part considering his past body of work.
Mike Fiers is a little mis-leading. His SwStr rate by start: 16.7%, 6.7%, 7.4%.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | 2.30 | 4.15 | 1.85 | 2.30 | 1.69 | 3.44 | 1.14 | 2.64 | 0.34 | 2.30 | 4.15 | 1.85 | 3.99 | 1.69 | 3.44 | 1.14 |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 9.64 | 3.12 | -6.52 | 9.64 | -6.62 | 5.54 | -4.10 | 5.13 | -4.51 | 9.64 | 3.13 | -6.51 | 3.02 | -6.62 | 5.54 | -4.10 |
| Blake Snell | Rays | 2.54 | 3.53 | 0.99 | 2.54 | 1.24 | 3.36 | 0.82 | 4.25 | 1.71 | 2.54 | 3.54 | 1.00 | 3.78 | 1.24 | 3.36 | 0.82 |
| Brent Suter | Brewers | 5.68 | 4.59 | -1.09 | 5.68 | -1.15 | 4.06 | -1.62 | 4.88 | -0.80 | 5.68 | 4.59 | -1.09 | 4.53 | -1.15 | 4.06 | -1.62 |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | 9.87 | 6.34 | -3.53 | 9.87 | -3.39 | 8.09 | -1.78 | 7.82 | -2.05 | 9.87 | 6.35 | -3.52 | 6.48 | -3.39 | 8.09 | -1.78 |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 5.67 | 4.63 | -1.04 | 5.67 | -1.41 | 5.41 | -0.26 | 5.78 | 0.11 | 5.67 | 4.63 | -1.04 | 4.26 | -1.41 | 5.41 | -0.26 |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 1.96 | 3.08 | 1.12 | 1.96 | 1.05 | 3.08 | 1.12 | 1.99 | 0.03 | 1.96 | 3.08 | 1.12 | 3.01 | 1.05 | 3.08 | 1.12 |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 3.10 | 4.16 | 1.06 | 3.10 | 0.88 | 4.05 | 0.95 | 2.66 | -0.44 | 3.10 | 4.16 | 1.06 | 3.98 | 0.88 | 4.05 | 0.95 |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 5.26 | 4.63 | -0.63 | 5.26 | -0.58 | 4.78 | -0.48 | 3.79 | -1.47 | 5.26 | 4.64 | -0.62 | 4.68 | -0.58 | 4.78 | -0.48 |
| Derek Holland | Giants | 4.98 | 3.94 | -1.04 | 4.98 | -0.65 | 4.53 | -0.45 | 7.43 | 2.45 | 4.98 | 3.95 | -1.03 | 4.33 | -0.65 | 4.53 | -0.45 |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | 7.36 | 2.82 | -4.54 | 7.36 | -5.09 | 1.01 | -6.35 | 3.90 | -3.46 | 7.36 | 2.87 | -4.49 | 2.27 | -5.09 | 1.01 | -6.35 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | Mariners | 9.64 | 5.45 | -4.19 | 9.64 | -4.58 | 8.97 | -0.67 | 3.78 | -5.86 | 9.64 | 5.48 | -4.16 | 5.06 | -4.58 | 8.97 | -0.67 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | 1.99 | 3.33 | 1.34 | 1.99 | 1.30 | 2.70 | 0.71 | 4.58 | 2.59 | 1.99 | 3.34 | 1.35 | 3.29 | 1.30 | 2.70 | 0.71 |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 2.53 | 2.79 | 0.26 | 2.53 | 0.11 | 2.34 | -0.19 | 2.91 | 0.38 | 2.53 | 2.79 | 0.26 | 2.64 | 0.11 | 2.34 | -0.19 |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | 5.88 | 4.40 | -1.48 | 5.88 | -1.15 | 4.57 | -1.31 | 5.39 | -0.49 | 5.88 | 4.40 | -1.48 | 4.73 | -1.15 | 4.57 | -1.31 |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 4.00 | 4.54 | 0.54 | 4.00 | 0.74 | 5.26 | 1.26 | 3.71 | -0.29 | 4.00 | 4.54 | 0.54 | 4.74 | 0.74 | 5.26 | 1.26 |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | 6.51 | 4.28 | -2.23 | 6.51 | -2.47 | 4.99 | -1.52 | 3.32 | -3.19 | 6.51 | 4.29 | -2.22 | 4.04 | -2.47 | 4.99 | -1.52 |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 2.32 | 3.36 | 1.04 | 2.32 | 1.03 | 2.48 | 0.16 | 3.04 | 0.72 | 2.32 | 3.36 | 1.04 | 3.35 | 1.03 | 2.48 | 0.16 |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | 8.55 | 4.28 | -4.27 | 8.55 | -4.59 | 4.49 | -4.06 | 3.51 | -5.04 | 8.55 | 4.28 | -4.27 | 3.96 | -4.59 | 4.49 | -4.06 |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | 3.71 | 4.61 | 0.90 | 3.71 | 1.00 | 4.25 | 0.54 | 5.31 | 1.60 | 3.71 | 4.61 | 0.90 | 4.71 | 1.00 | 4.25 | 0.54 |
| Mike Minor | Rangers | 3.86 | 4.12 | 0.26 | 3.86 | 0.91 | 3.81 | -0.05 | 2.83 | -1.03 | 3.86 | 4.12 | 0.26 | 4.77 | 0.91 | 3.81 | -0.05 |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | 3.46 | 3.52 | 0.06 | 3.46 | -0.22 | 3.88 | 0.42 | 3.46 | 3.52 | 0.06 | 3.24 | -0.22 | 3.88 | 0.42 | ||
| Phil Hughes | Twins | 5.40 | 5.99 | 0.59 | 5.40 | 0.70 | 7.69 | 2.29 | 7.15 | 1.75 | 5.40 | 6.01 | 0.61 | 6.1 | 0.70 | 7.69 | 2.29 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | 1.50 | 5.00 | 3.50 | 1.50 | 3.51 | 4.23 | 2.73 | 7.12 | 5.62 | 1.50 | 5.00 | 3.50 | 5.01 | 3.51 | 4.23 | 2.73 |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | 1.23 | 3.54 | 2.31 | 1.23 | 2.41 | 3.54 | 2.31 | 4.62 | 3.39 | 1.23 | 3.54 | 2.31 | 3.64 | 2.41 | 3.54 | 2.31 |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | 2.97 | 3.23 | 0.26 | 2.97 | 0.25 | 4.27 | 1.30 | 3.03 | 0.06 | 2.97 | 3.23 | 0.26 | 3.22 | 0.25 | 4.27 | 1.30 |
| Steven Brault | Pirates | 4.44 | 5.45 | 1.01 | 4.44 | 1.08 | 4.75 | 0.31 | 6.54 | 2.10 | 4.44 | 5.45 | 1.01 | 5.52 | 1.08 | 4.75 | 0.31 |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | 4.32 | 4.65 | 0.33 | 4.32 | 0.42 | 4.27 | -0.05 | 4.86 | 0.54 | 4.32 | 4.65 | 0.33 | 4.74 | 0.42 | 4.27 | -0.05 |
| Yu Darvish | Cubs | 6.86 | 4.52 | -2.34 | 6.86 | -2.18 | 5.02 | -1.84 | 3.10 | -3.76 | 6.86 | 4.53 | -2.33 | 4.68 | -2.18 | 5.02 | -1.84 |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 3.09 | 3.39 | 0.30 | 3.09 | -0.01 | 2.72 | -0.37 | 3.21 | 0.12 | 3.09 | 3.39 | 0.30 | 3.08 | -0.01 | 2.72 | -0.37 |
Aaron Nola has a .217 BABIP. We see below that his batted ball profile exhibits a low line drive rate with a good portion of his fly balls staying around the infield. The Statcast profile shows us weak contact. Not that .217 is sustainable, but I don’t see his ERA rising to four.
Blake Snell has a .231 BABIP and 84 LOB%.
Corey Kluber has a .205 BABIP and 89.3 LOB% with nothing really supporting it. This has made his ERA look like last season, when in fact, the performance may not be that good, but it’s still really good.
Dallas Keuchel has an 81 LOB%.
Jose Urena has a 64.3 LOB%.
Julio Teheran has an 84.4 LOB%.
Luis Severino has a .233 BABIP and 3.8 HR/FB. Unlike strand rate, this we can go a little deeper on below.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | 0.283 | 0.217 | -0.066 | 48.8% | 17.1% | 17.9% | 89.4% | 34.2% |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 0.291 | 0.417 | 0.126 | 32.0% | 28.0% | 20.0% | 83.7% | 36.7% |
| Blake Snell | Rays | 0.300 | 0.231 | -0.069 | 34.3% | 16.4% | 12.1% | 80.3% | 36.9% |
| Brent Suter | Brewers | 0.273 | 0.329 | 0.056 | 28.2% | 32.9% | 24.2% | 87.0% | 31.4% |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | 0.328 | 0.385 | 0.057 | 39.1% | 26.1% | 8.3% | 97.8% | 47.0% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 0.308 | 0.325 | 0.017 | 50.6% | 23.5% | 9.1% | 87.0% | 41.7% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 0.250 | 0.205 | -0.045 | 43.3% | 21.1% | 9.4% | 89.8% | 32.6% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 0.266 | 0.291 | 0.025 | 57.3% | 15.7% | 12.5% | 87.4% | 40.2% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 0.280 | 0.293 | 0.013 | 32.9% | 26.6% | 6.3% | 88.6% | 40.5% |
| Derek Holland | Giants | 0.276 | 0.218 | -0.058 | 32.2% | 15.3% | 22.6% | 91.1% | 41.9% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | 0.271 | 0.500 | 0.229 | 30.0% | 40.0% | 0.0% | 92.0% | 33.4% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | Mariners | 0.301 | 0.188 | -0.113 | 50.0% | 22.2% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 36.8% |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | 0.299 | 0.200 | -0.099 | 52.9% | 13.7% | 5.9% | 83.2% | 28.8% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 0.285 | 0.303 | 0.018 | 48.7% | 21.1% | 26.1% | 78.8% | 37.7% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | 0.300 | 0.308 | 0.008 | 49.4% | 16.0% | 21.4% | 82.6% | 39.6% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 0.288 | 0.279 | -0.009 | 36.6% | 16.9% | 3.0% | 85.6% | 26.3% |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | 0.289 | 0.300 | 0.011 | 49.4% | 21.2% | 0.0% | 82.1% | 31.2% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 0.292 | 0.233 | -0.059 | 48.6% | 16.2% | 3.8% | 80.4% | 35.0% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | 0.304 | 0.350 | 0.046 | 69.4% | 14.5% | 0.0% | 88.6% | 33.9% |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | 0.296 | 0.317 | 0.021 | 47.5% | 16.4% | 13.6% | 81.9% | 31.2% |
| Mike Minor | Rangers | 0.324 | 0.255 | -0.069 | 28.6% | 17.9% | 13.3% | 81.0% | 44.1% |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | 0.288 | 0.253 | -0.035 | 49.4% | 22.2% | 13.0% | 92.5% | 24.4% |
| Phil Hughes | Twins | 0.300 | 0.364 | 0.064 | 33.3% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 90.5% | 42.0% |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | 0.308 | 0.175 | -0.133 | 35.6% | 15.3% | 10.3% | 83.3% | 47.9% |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | 0.292 | 0.135 | -0.157 | 48.4% | 12.9% | 11.1% | 88.1% | 30.5% |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | 0.277 | 0.235 | -0.042 | 46.0% | 21.8% | 7.1% | 83.2% | 34.6% |
| Steven Brault | Pirates | 0.300 | 0.243 | -0.057 | 44.3% | 14.3% | 3.4% | 85.7% | 42.7% |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | 0.304 | 0.323 | 0.019 | 21.2% | 28.8% | 6.1% | 79.3% | 43.4% |
| Yu Darvish | Cubs | 0.290 | 0.327 | 0.037 | 38.2% | 23.6% | 14.3% | 84.2% | 39.6% |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 0.276 | 0.290 | 0.014 | 58.1% | 19.4% | 14.3% | 93.0% | 29.5% |
Blake Snell has a terrific BABIP profile. A low ground ball rate with a high infield fly rate is one way to keep balls in play from becoming hits. You’re still going to be suspicious of anything below .260 unless the defense has also been fantastic, which is not the case here.
Jose Urena stands out as someone with a fairly strong BABIP profile with a mark above .300.
Luis Severino has a .279 career BABIP, which is really good, but well above his mark this season and it doesn’t look like he’s doing enough sustainable things to stay below his career rate. There should be some regression.
Mike Minor probably isn’t sustaining a BABIP 69 points below what his defense allows, but the profile is interesting.
There was a time, not too long ago, when Stephen Strasburg consistently ran infuriatingly high BABIPs. This too, will regress.
Look at your low Z-Contact and low Z-O-Swing combinations today. Three of them. One, not who you’d think at all. Another has a .377 xwOBA.
StatCast Chart
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | 0.260 | -0.031 | 0.262 | -0.003 | 0.260 | -0.031 | -0.1 | 85.7 | 2.4 | 25.9 | 85 |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 0.334 | 0.073 | 0.357 | 0.036 | 0.334 | 0.073 | -1.3 | 79.7 | 14.8 | 29.6 | 27 |
| Blake Snell | Rays | 0.287 | -0.035 | 0.333 | 0.000 | 0.287 | -0.035 | 0.2 | 86.3 | 5.9 | 25.0 | 68 |
| Brent Suter | Brewers | 0.344 | -0.007 | 0.299 | -0.011 | 0.344 | -0.007 | 0.5 | 82.8 | 8.0 | 26.1 | 88 |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | 0.479 | 0.002 | 0.419 | -0.023 | 0.479 | 0.002 | -0.4 | 91.4 | 11.4 | 51.4 | 70 |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 0.352 | 0.019 | 0.319 | 0.023 | 0.352 | 0.019 | -2.0 | 90.9 | 7.1 | 37.6 | 85 |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 0.274 | -0.057 | 0.213 | -0.002 | 0.274 | -0.057 | -0.5 | 87.8 | 7.6 | 30.4 | 92 |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 0.293 | 0.011 | 0.270 | -0.029 | 0.293 | 0.011 | -0.3 | 88.3 | 3.4 | 38.2 | 89 |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 0.381 | -0.050 | 0.330 | -0.020 | 0.381 | -0.050 | 0.4 | 90.2 | 6.3 | 39.2 | 79 |
| Derek Holland | Giants | 0.344 | -0.044 | 0.368 | -0.019 | 0.344 | -0.044 | -0.9 | 91.8 | 11.9 | 42.4 | 59 |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | 0.316 | -0.012 | |||||||||
| Erasmo Ramirez | Mariners | 0.366 | -0.012 | |||||||||
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | 0.271 | -0.042 | 0.343 | -0.008 | 0.271 | -0.042 | 0.2 | 84.9 | 5.9 | 29.4 | 51 |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 0.235 | 0.009 | 0.287 | 0.005 | 0.235 | 0.009 | 0.9 | 83.9 | 3.8 | 25.6 | 78 |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | 0.350 | -0.021 | 0.343 | -0.010 | 0.350 | -0.021 | -0.7 | 90.4 | 6.2 | 39.5 | 81 |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 0.336 | 0.007 | 0.302 | 0.007 | 0.336 | 0.007 | -0.4 | 87.5 | 8.2 | 39.7 | 73 |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | 0.377 | -0.035 | 0.302 | -0.004 | 0.377 | -0.035 | -1.5 | 89.9 | 9.4 | 40.0 | 85 |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 0.299 | -0.072 | 0.258 | 0.000 | 0.299 | -0.072 | -0.6 | 87.9 | 9.5 | 31.1 | 74 |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | 0.398 | -0.045 | 0.314 | -0.022 | 0.398 | -0.045 | -1.1 | 94.2 | 12.9 | 59.7 | 62 |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | 0.377 | -0.050 | 0.332 | 0.030 | 0.377 | -0.050 | -0.8 | 88.8 | 11.3 | 37.1 | 62 |
| Mike Minor | Rangers | 0.350 | -0.039 | 0.246 | -0.016 | 0.350 | -0.039 | -1.2 | 90.2 | 10.5 | 42.1 | 57 |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | 0.331 | -0.058 | 0.405 | -0.095 | 0.331 | -0.058 | -0.7 | 85.7 | 12.0 | 33.7 | 83 |
| Phil Hughes | Twins | 0.395 | -0.015 | |||||||||
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | 0.359 | -0.106 | 0.323 | 0.000 | 0.359 | -0.106 | -0.5 | 89.2 | 10.2 | 37.3 | 59 |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | 0.285 | -0.103 | 0.337 | -0.009 | 0.285 | -0.103 | 0.3 | 88.5 | 6.5 | 32.3 | 93 |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | 0.345 | -0.073 | 0.283 | -0.032 | 0.345 | -0.073 | 0.5 | 88.9 | 10.3 | 37.9 | 87 |
| Steven Brault | Pirates | 0.390 | -0.093 | 0.364 | -0.048 | 0.390 | -0.093 | 0.4 | 88.8 | 11.1 | 33.3 | 72 |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | 0.335 | 0.006 | 0.344 | 0.020 | 0.335 | 0.006 | -0.7 | 87 | 5.9 | 26.5 | 68 |
| Yu Darvish | Cubs | 0.364 | -0.006 | 0.320 | 0.020 | 0.364 | -0.006 | -0.3 | 84.8 | 8.6 | 31.0 | 58 |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 0.324 | -0.065 | 0.291 | 0.003 | 0.324 | -0.065 | -1.2 | 88.1 | 7.9 | 34.9 | 63 |
Nearly one-third of the board boasts an xwOBA below .300.
Blake Snell is hanging with the big boys (.287 xwOBA, 25% 95+ mph EV).
Luis Severino has a 3.8 HR/FB, which is always unsustainable, but especially in Yankee Stadium. The .299 xwOBA is really strong, yet completely over-shadowed by a strong group of arms. While the contact quality by Hard-Soft% is exceptional, the Statcast numbers (which we should probably trust more) are slightly less impressive, though still better than average in most spots.
I guess I’m surprised to see that Stephen Strasburg is not one of those sub-.300 xwOBA guys. He’s not even league average and while the contact quality is much worse here than 3.4 Hard-Soft% suggest, I still can’t really understand why with his elite K-BB%.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
There’s just soooooo much quality today and even past that, there are a lot of guys who could go off. It’s hard to find reasons to not include some guys. My strategy on DraftKings might be to find your favored arm, build the rest of your lineup, then come back and see who still fits in that secondary spot. You can probably find someone with upside on the lower end of the board, many of whom are not in bad spots.
Value Tier One
Jacob deGrom (1) may be the best pitcher on the board this year so far, especially in his last two starts and has one of the more enviable matchups on the board. I’d expect total deGromination, even though we know where expectations have gotten us this week. The biggest issue is that his damn bullpen might not let him win another game this year. He may have to finish this himself and after two extra-inning games in the last three and starters not lasting long into games for this team, he might just finish it.
Value Tier Two
Stephen Strasburg (2t) may end up being the forgotten $10K guy tonight. He doesn’t have the best matchup, but it might be the second best of the four. He doesn’t have those enormously dominant starts that jump out at you, but he keeps putting up quality numbers and will pop off a double digit K game once a month.
Aaron Nola (5) showed the strikeout fire power for the first time last time out. He’s going deeper into games and dominating at the point of contact. The Braves represent a difficult, but not impossible DFS matchup. He’s proven to be a $10K pitcher in the past and still does not cost that.
Value Tier Three
Corey Kluber (2t) is really expensive and maybe last year was a career year. It’s difficult to live up to those expectations and maybe he’s more a top five or ten pitcher than a top three guy. The one thing we should rightfully expect is seven innings. He averages an amazing 6.9 over the last two calendar years (nobody else on the board above six and a half). Maybe the strikeout rate is more 25-28% than 30-35%. That’s fine. He’s still really damn good and still might be better than he’s shown this year.
Luis Severino (4) established himself as a top the league arm last year, perhaps just below the big four (K-K-S-S…shouldn’t be too hard to figure out). It hasn’t been that dominant yet this year, but still really good. He does get a park upgrade but is still probably the third best overall arm tonight in a spot that may not present for as much upside as we’d like.
Blake Snell is a guy I’m really curious to see ownership rates on tonight (and also maybe the umpire). If it looks like players just want to avoid a lefty against the Red Sox, which makes sense, this might be a very interesting low cost play. To recap: he’s going deep into games, missing bats at a tremendous rate, hasn’t walked anyone in two starts, and has been one of the top contact managers on the board. The Red Sox are struggling and for some reason, striking out a lot more. While there are two guys in the lineup that should scare the crap out of southpaws, the rest of the lineup isn’t that imposing I guess. I may even have him too low.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Julio Teheran has his strikeout rate up, is cheap and is facing a lineup that strikes out a ton without a lot of left-handed threats for a pitcher, who has some platoon issues.
Jose Urena is certainly not a guy I trust and I’m not even saying he realizes some of the upside in his the underlying numbers (mainly his SwStr%) here, but he’s cheap and you always want to look at a cheap guy with some upside facing the Rockies in a negative run environment.
Dallas Keuchel costs less than $9K against a dangerous offense, but in a great environment. Ground balls can’t leave the yard and weak ground balls don’t often go for hits. If he can get a young, powerful offense to be over-aggressive they may be pounding the ball into the ground all night with enough strikeouts (he’s had exactly six in three straight) to make it work.
Danny Duffy is not someone I have incredible confidence in tonight, but he is in a high upside spot at a low enough price where he can win someone a GPP if things break the right way. If I’m playing multiple lineups, I’d set exposure somewhere from 10-20%.
Mike Minor was going to be left off this list, not because he’s been bad or has no upside, but because this board is loaded with quality. Then I saw the low price tag. He’s $6.5K or less, has some upside and is not in a bad spot.
Tyler Anderson may not belong here, but I’m not giving up on the Marlins yet. I’m not sure if I’d actually use him on this loaded board, but he’s got some upside.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.