Advanced Stats - Pitching: Tuesday, April 25th
DraftKings has a neat feature on in their GameCenter page where they show the top six scoring players at each position. As this introduction is being written, at about 11:30pm on the east coast, among the pitching leaders are Miguel Gonzalez with 30 points, Zack Greinke as the only other pitcher above 20, then a reliever, Brett Anderson, Jesse Chavez, and Phil Hughes. One of those pitchers was recommended here yesterday. It wasn’t the reliever. Matt Cain is currently shutting out the Dodgers through five innings too. Sometimes it’s best to have a short memory and quickly move on.
We’re one short of a full slate on Tuesday night, so we won’t be going four paragraphs deep on anyone like yesterday, but try to provide quality coverage of some of the more interesting arms.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | -2.4 | 4.41 | 5.44 | 46.8% | 1.11 | 4.17 | 6.11 | MIN | 90 | 94 | 80 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | -11.6 | 2.29 | 7.13 | 49.6% | 0.93 | 2.42 | 2.27 | SFO | 77 | 83 | 67 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 5.1 | 3.86 | 6.06 | 63.6% | 1.13 | 4.42 | 2.61 | ARI | 134 | 64 | 111 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | -5.6 | 3.21 | 6.8 | 59.4% | 1.09 | 3.76 | 2.46 | CLE | 123 | 97 | 128 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 14.6 | 3.99 | 5.9 | 38.1% | 0.98 | 3.66 | 4.17 | CHW | 91 | 121 | 63 |
| Dylan Covey | CHW | 1.1 | 6.21 | 5.05 | 50.0% | 0.98 | 6.21 | KAN | 52 | 64 | 38 | |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 5.9 | 3.9 | 5.65 | 48.8% | 1.02 | 4.57 | 3.46 | BAL | 94 | 117 | 89 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 16.2 | 4.33 | 6.22 | 41.8% | 1.11 | 4.32 | 3.65 | TEX | 93 | 97 | 61 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 3.5 | 3.92 | 6.32 | 53.4% | 0.98 | 4.34 | 3.32 | DET | 109 | 107 | 103 |
| German Marquez | COL | 1.3 | 3.97 | 5.03 | 54.9% | 1.39 | 3.42 | WAS | 103 | 102 | 98 | |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 6 | 3.68 | 6.11 | 46.1% | 0.97 | 4.22 | 3.22 | CHC | 117 | 99 | 146 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | -2.9 | 3.97 | 5.05 | 51.6% | 0.91 | 3.91 | 3.02 | OAK | 92 | 113 | 139 |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | -10.6 | 4.45 | 5.75 | 49.1% | 0.91 | 5.5 | 4.48 | ANA | 125 | 93 | 90 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | -8.2 | 3.86 | 5.61 | 45.4% | 1.39 | 3.79 | 2.95 | COL | 87 | 70 | 121 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 1.6 | 4.17 | 6. | 41.5% | 0.98 | 5.46 | 6.25 | SEA | 78 | 112 | 114 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | -13.7 | 4.05 | 5.98 | 42.9% | 1.09 | 4.35 | 5.13 | HOU | 128 | 125 | 124 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 0.9 | 4.08 | 6.19 | 39.0% | 0.91 | 4.39 | 5.43 | NYM | 67 | 74 | 58 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 12.7 | 3.59 | 5.94 | 49.9% | 0.97 | 4.14 | 4.82 | PIT | 100 | 87 | 93 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 4.2 | 3.69 | 5.2 | 47.7% | 1.13 | 4.27 | 1.48 | BOS | 117 | 109 | 91 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | -1.6 | 4.47 | 6.07 | 33.3% | 0.98 | 4.67 | 3.49 | STL | 69 | 92 | 118 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | -18.8 | 4.14 | 5.78 | 44.9% | 0.98 | 3.82 | 4.2 | TOR | 91 | 76 | 104 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | -11.2 | 4.08 | 5.43 | 51.2% | 1.13 | 4.39 | 3.55 | SDG | 74 | 71 | 69 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 1.6 | 3.73 | 6.44 | 43.9% | 1.13 | 3.95 | 3.95 | NYY | 111 | 127 | 111 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 0.4 | 3.56 | 5.72 | 54.1% | 0.91 | 2.91 | 3.12 | ATL | 80 | 85 | 49 |
| Scott Feldman | CIN | 22.6 | 4.31 | 5.75 | 0.474 | 1.02 | 4.02 | 5.07 | MIL | 89 | 86 | 101 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 1.3 | 4.87 | 5.5 | 0.525 | 0.93 | 3.3 | 4.57 | LOS | 86 | 85 | 101 |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | 12.2 | 3.67 | 5.41 | 0.347 | 0.96 | 3.35 | 5.06 | MIA | 94 | 99 | 105 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | -11.1 | 4.12 | 5.89 | 0.48 | 1.02 | 3.93 | 1.55 | TAM | 92 | 123 | 134 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | MIA | 4.8 | 4.01 | 5.96 | 0.404 | 0.96 | 4.04 | 5.07 | PHI | 115 | 89 | 102 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | -7.7 | 4.18 | 5.71 | 0.471 | 1.02 | 3.89 | 4.18 | CIN | 121 | 96 | 87 |
Clayton Kershaw had his most Kershaw start of the season last time out (10 Ks – 18.6 SwStr%), so everything is just Kershaw in Kershaw land. He goes from one great pitcher’s park to another in San Francisco to face an offense that doesn’t normally strike out a lot, but have been struggling greatly.
Clayton Richard enters a terrible pitching environment where the opposition has a history of mashing LHP at home in recent years. The LHP part of that isn’t quite up to par this season in over 200 PA so far, but about a quarter of them have taken place against Kershaw and Bumgarner, which will cramp anybody’s numbers for a while. His last outing was against this team, in San Diego, but he did strike out eight. His 55% ground ball rate in that game actually brought his season rate down to 67%. LHBs simply can’t elevate against him at all. His 65.2 GB% over the last calendar year (min. 80 IP) is 5.7 points above the next highest pitcher.
Danny Duffy will not sustain a 95.4 LOB%. He allows a lot of contact in the air in a park that it might be dangerous to do so tonight. The White Sox haven’t shown much power against LHP, but have had very few opportunities against them this season. They do lean predominantly right-handed though, and were fairly competent against LHP last year. If Duffy did have on issue last season, it was hard contact against RHBs (38.6%, 26 HRs). He was still able to strike them out at an above average rate though (24.4%), which brings us to what we really need to talk about today. He has posted at least a 16.0 SwStr% in three of four starts this year, yet he’s somehow not managed to strike out more than six batters in any of his last three starts despite going at least seven innings each time.
Luis Severino got a week off after going eight innings in his last start. He’s now struck out 21 of his last 54 batters (15 innings) and has had a double digit SwStr% in all three starts. He’s faced Baltimore, Tampa Bay, and Chicago (AL). The dilemma here is that Fangraphs says he’s using his changeup a lot more, while Brooks says it’s still below 10% without a single whiff on it. He’s going to need that third pitch for us to continue to have faith in this breakout. While the 11.3 SwStr% is strong, it’s not at where his strikeout rate currently sits. When batters have connected, they are barreling him up (15.6 Barrels/BBE) often, though his 26.7 HR/FB is above his 23.4 Hard%, so who knows what to believe. Similarly, despite a hard hit rate above 35% at home and against RHP, the Red Sox have just a 6.0 HR/FB in each instance. They are striking out like last year’s Angels though (16.2% vs RHP).
Marco Estrada is up to his old ERA estimator beating tricks (.258 BABIP, 88.7%). Fortunately, he’s one of those mysteries that Statcast and newer metrics are beginning to unravel. The more read about his unusual fastball spin rate (because he throws it less than 90 mph) and effective velocity, the more one may start to believe in the success. I’m fine with the weak contact and low BABIP thing at this point and he even has a big outfield in St Louis to play with tonight, though the high strand rate is impossible to ignore. He does have the second highest SwStr% on the board today, above 12% in each of his last three starts.
Michael Wacha is had a 14+ SwStr% in each of his first two starts before slowing against Pittsburgh last time out. An 89.3 LOB% over-states his level of improvement from last season, but generally, increasing your SwStr rate by 50% and reducing your Hard-Soft% by 11.2 points is generally pretty good. Although, he’s one of several pitchers this year with a stark drop in his ground ball rate (down over 10 points from a league average career rate). St Louis is a park where some extra-elevation isn’t necessarily going to hurt you, especially early in the season before the weather gets too warm. It also doesn’t hurt if that contact in the air is rarely hard. His 81.9 mph aEV is best in the majors among pitchers with at least 50 BBE. He also gets to face a Toronto lineup that loses a DH and is already down a couple of middle of the order bats. They’ve been terrible this year.
Robert Gsellman pitched so well in his last start, they lopped four ERs off his previous one. (No, they actually did that prior to the game, not that DFS owners actually received the points nearly a week later.) The odd thing is that his SwStr was below 8% for the first time all season, yet he tied a season high with seven strikeouts. His strikeout rate is a bit high, but he’s been above his season SwStr% in three of his four starts. My belief is we’re most likely to see something around league average with a strong to elite GB rate (currently 54%). While his hard hit rate is a bit high (35.3%), his Statcast numbers paint a slightly better picture. He has one of the top matchups on the board in Atlanta tonight. He’s facing a very cold offense that has been striking out (24.3%) and generating lots of weak contact (2.0 Hard-Soft%) over the last week.
Scott Feldman is missing a lot of bats. Well, he has in two of his four starts at least with a SwStr either above 12% or less than 8% in each of his four starts. One of his lower ones was actually against these Brewers when he walked five of them. Unfortunately, he’s another guy whose ground ball rate has cratered (down 13 points from his career rate) and Milwaukee is not a kind park to fly ball generators that don’t really induce an abundance of weak contact. The Brewers, however, haven’t been nearly as proficient against RHP as they have vs southpaws, but have retained a similarly enormous strikeout rate.
Wade Miley struck out 11 of 26 Reds in his last start. This came out of nowhere, as he’s had a below average SwStr% in his two previous starts and even walked seven batters in his first one. To be perfectly clear, we’re not jumping on board because of his last start or his low ERA (.162 BABIP, 91.6 LOB%). It’s almost entirely due to the Rays (32 K% on the road, 28.8 K% vs LHP, 26.8 K% overall). They’ve been hot and have started strong against LHP, but the strikeouts seem more likely to persist than any of that.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.298 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)
Ervin Santana (.114 – 96.2 – 3.2) is still basically a league average pitcher, facing a league average offense, at a league average cost, but in a difficult environment. He might be decent, but the risk seems beyond the upside.
Juilo Teheran (.308 – 74.5% – 7.4) has an 11.2 BB% with reduced velocity and despite a massive 72.5 F-Strike%, a decrease in his Zone% by three points from his career rate. Might he be injured? He does have a recent history of strong performances against the Mets and that continued in his first start this season, but he’s since struck out just 12 of 73 batters.
Patrick Corbin (.311 – 72.9% – 8.3) has never had a single digit HR rate, so I wouldn’t expect one now (at least pre-humidor), though he hasn’t been allowing nearly as much hard contact this year. Three of his 11 runs have also been unearned, making his ERA look a little better. He’s actually not in too bad a spot against the Padres (29.0 K% over the last week), even at home, but he really doesn’t miss many bats at all anymore.
Andrew Cashner (.235 – 73.3% – 0) has walked more batters than he’s struck out in each of his two starts.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
JC Ramirez struck out nine of 21 Astros in his last start, missing 15 bats in 83 pitches. He now has a career 8.5 K-BB% in 141.2 career innings, all but the last 10.1 coming out of the bullpen. He hadn’t previously started a game since AA in 2011. The upside here is that he’s basically the cheapest arm on the board and wouldn’t have to do much to cover his cost.
Vince Velasquez is a flawed arm with a ton of upside when he’s on. It’s very high risk, high reward. In three games, he’s generated both 10 strikeouts (18.2 SwStr%) and two strikeouts (2.4 SwStr%). Absolutely no idea what you’re going to get and he’s not a stranger to HRs when he’s off either, while the Marlins have shown quite a bit of power this year (17.1 HR/FB vs RHP). Walks and HRs are too great a risk for a guy who may or may not generate strikeouts for more than $9K (DraftKings), especially when you factor in some weather related risk tonight.
Erasmo Ramirez has often shown some talent for missing bats, at least around a league average rate and you might be able to pull something worth a near minimum cost (on DK) out of him here, but he’s in a tough spot in Baltimore and has been working mainly out of the bullpen this year, reaching only 66 pitches in his first start. If he gets 75 tonight, it probably only gets him through five innings.
Felix Hernandez has seen improvement almost solely through his walk rate. He’s still missing bats at about a league average rate this year, generating ground balls just above 50% and doing a nice job of limiting hard contact. However, his walk rate has gone from 9.9% last year to 1% this season. His 70.2 F-Strike% is up 11 points from last season and his 52.7 Zone% is up 12.2 points. All of that said, he costs $9K+ and is facing a Detroit offense that has been mashing RHP (42.7 Hard%) at home (53.2 Hard%).
Rick Porcello has estimators mostly in line with last season aside from the HR rate. The only real change has been the increase in hard contact, which is never a good thing. I’m still not sure he’s worth much more than $9K though, especially in a tough home park against the top offense vs RHP so far. Add in the high washout potential here and there’s not much reason to even look here tonight.
Wei-Yin Chen faced 24 batters in his last start. Nineteen of them put the ball in play, only seven on the ground, without a base hit. His BABIP had been above .350 in each of his previous two starts. Although not a lot of it’s been hard, a 47.9% fly ball rate in Philadelphia is a dangerous proposition for a pitcher with a decreased strikeout rate this year.
Ty Blach is in a great spot in San Francisco against an offense that can’t hit LHP and was shut down by Matt Cain last night. However, he doesn’t miss bats and hasn’t gone more than an inning in any of his major league appearances (seven) this month.
Gerrit Cole is turning into a league average pitcher, which is not a compliment, considering what he had been.
Joe Ross is nearly cheap enough to consider against an offense that has struggled greatly against RHP, though the underlying numbers appear more neutral. He still has a great deal of issues vs LHBs.
Kyle Davies is a bit similar to the following pitcher, although not coming off as strong a season. He did have a fairly successful rookie season, but has cratered to start 2017.
Kyle Hendricks is the largest velocity drop in the majors this year (over three mph). With his fastball and changeup now running more closely together, the formerly elite pitch has been getting hammered and not even the great Cubs’ defense can turn batted balls over the outfield walls into outs.
German Marquez is a prospect of some note (#3 in the organization on Fangraphs) with two above average pitchers (fastball, curveball), but facing even an average offense in Coors is akin to facing a great one in a neutral park. This is the worst spot on the board.
Dylan Covey may, unfortunately, have tonight’s top matchup, but he’s also struck out just two of the 47 batters he’s faced.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | Rangers | L2 Years | 19.3% | 9.4% | Home | 20.5% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 10.9% | 15.2% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | L2 Years | 32.7% | 3.3% | Road | 30.2% | 2.3% | L14 Days | 32.1% | 3.6% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Years | 13.6% | 7.6% | Road | 12.0% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 3.6% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Years | 22.5% | 5.9% | Road | 20.6% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 25.9% | 5.6% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Years | 22.1% | 7.3% | Road | 28.4% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 9.6% |
| Dylan Covey | White Sox | L2 Years | 4.3% | 10.6% | Home | L14 Days | 4.3% | 10.6% | ||
| Erasmo Ramirez | Rays | L2 Years | 18.3% | 5.8% | Road | 13.1% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 17.1% | 0.0% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 19.3% | 7.4% | Road | 20.6% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 7.6% |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | L2 Years | 20.5% | 7.9% | Road | 18.1% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 13.8% | 1.7% |
| German Marquez | Rockies | L2 Years | 15.3% | 6.1% | Home | 18.9% | 3.8% | L14 Days | ||
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | L2 Years | 21.8% | 5.9% | Home | 18.5% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 26.0% | 6.0% |
| JC Ramirez | Angels | L2 Years | 17.8% | 7.5% | Home | 20.3% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 7.1% |
| Jesse Hahn | Athletics | L2 Years | 15.5% | 7.8% | Road | 10.8% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 11.8% |
| Joe Ross | Nationals | L2 Years | 21.5% | 6.5% | Road | 22.9% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 25.9% | 3.7% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Years | 18.1% | 5.2% | Home | 12.9% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 12.0% |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | L2 Years | 17.7% | 2.9% | Home | 14.7% | 2.3% | L14 Days | 5.1% | 2.6% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Years | 21.1% | 7.0% | Road | 20.0% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 14.6% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | L2 Years | 22.6% | 6.2% | Road | 21.4% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 15.6% | 13.3% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | L2 Years | 23.2% | 7.6% | Road | 20.5% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 38.9% | 1.9% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 20.5% | 8.4% | Road | 21.6% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 28.9% | 9.6% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | L2 Years | 20.0% | 7.7% | Home | 20.3% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 7.7% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 19.4% | 7.8% | Home | 18.5% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 5.6% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 20.9% | 4.2% | Home | 21.0% | 3.4% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 5.7% |
| Robert Gsellman | Mets | L2 Years | 23.5% | 8.0% | Home | 24.4% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 7.8% |
| Scott Feldman | Reds | L2 Years | 15.9% | 6.6% | Road | 18.5% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 15.2% | 10.9% |
| Ty Blach | Giants | L2 Years | 14.1% | 9.4% | Home | 20.0% | 2.9% | L14 Days | 13.3% | 6.7% |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | L2 Years | 26.9% | 8.9% | Home | 33.4% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 18.4% | 14.3% |
| Wade Miley | Orioles | L2 Years | 19.2% | 7.2% | Home | 22.8% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 38.0% | 2.0% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | L2 Years | 19.2% | 4.6% | Road | 17.9% | 4.1% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 5.0% |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | L2 Years | 19.1% | 6.9% | Home | 20.7% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 8.5% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twins | Road | 21.2% | 10.4% | RH | 22.0% | 11.5% | L7Days | 21.3% | 10.9% |
| Giants | Home | 17.1% | 8.4% | LH | 19.9% | 8.7% | L7Days | 17.3% | 6.8% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 22.5% | 8.2% | LH | 24.3% | 5.2% | L7Days | 23.1% | 8.8% |
| Indians | Home | 22.4% | 11.6% | LH | 18.0% | 12.7% | L7Days | 19.0% | 11.0% |
| White Sox | Home | 24.7% | 8.8% | LH | 17.7% | 8.9% | L7Days | 29.1% | 6.3% |
| Royals | Road | 21.9% | 6.7% | RH | 22.0% | 6.7% | L7Days | 19.3% | 5.9% |
| Orioles | Home | 19.1% | 8.1% | RH | 20.4% | 7.0% | L7Days | 23.3% | 8.0% |
| Rangers | Home | 22.9% | 8.7% | RH | 20.3% | 8.5% | L7Days | 19.4% | 8.5% |
| Tigers | Home | 23.7% | 9.5% | RH | 24.2% | 11.0% | L7Days | 23.9% | 9.4% |
| Nationals | Road | 21.9% | 10.7% | RH | 19.9% | 9.5% | L7Days | 19.1% | 10.8% |
| Cubs | Road | 21.6% | 10.5% | RH | 23.6% | 9.0% | L7Days | 21.5% | 10.8% |
| Athletics | Road | 20.0% | 8.4% | RH | 22.6% | 9.6% | L7Days | 21.5% | 9.6% |
| Angels | Home | 17.7% | 8.2% | RH | 21.4% | 7.4% | L7Days | 20.3% | 7.5% |
| Rockies | Home | 21.8% | 6.7% | RH | 21.2% | 8.6% | L7Days | 22.8% | 6.3% |
| Mariners | Road | 21.1% | 9.1% | RH | 20.7% | 9.1% | L7Days | 17.3% | 12.6% |
| Astros | Road | 17.1% | 11.3% | RH | 18.4% | 8.2% | L7Days | 20.6% | 8.4% |
| Mets | Home | 21.4% | 9.1% | RH | 22.5% | 9.9% | L7Days | 20.5% | 9.6% |
| Pirates | Home | 18.9% | 10.6% | RH | 16.9% | 7.6% | L7Days | 18.2% | 9.5% |
| Red Sox | Home | 15.5% | 8.3% | RH | 16.2% | 7.5% | L7Days | 17.5% | 7.9% |
| Cardinals | Home | 22.2% | 10.4% | RH | 21.1% | 9.1% | L7Days | 19.3% | 8.1% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 22.3% | 10.0% | RH | 24.0% | 8.1% | L7Days | 25.4% | 8.9% |
| Padres | Road | 25.8% | 7.3% | LH | 23.4% | 8.4% | L7Days | 29.0% | 5.3% |
| Yankees | Road | 18.9% | 9.7% | RH | 20.7% | 10.1% | L7Days | 18.4% | 7.4% |
| Braves | Road | 21.5% | 6.1% | RH | 21.7% | 7.5% | L7Days | 24.3% | 7.3% |
| Brewers | Home | 30.6% | 9.1% | RH | 27.2% | 8.4% | L7Days | 28.4% | 9.8% |
| Dodgers | Road | 22.0% | 9.9% | LH | 21.3% | 9.7% | L7Days | 18.4% | 9.0% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.9% | 6.0% | RH | 22.4% | 5.9% | L7Days | 17.9% | 4.6% |
| Rays | Road | 32.0% | 8.5% | LH | 28.8% | 11.3% | L7Days | 23.4% | 8.8% |
| Phillies | Home | 21.6% | 8.3% | LH | 22.1% | 8.4% | L7Days | 26.5% | 5.6% |
| Reds | Road | 16.0% | 8.5% | RH | 19.5% | 8.1% | L7Days | 24.7% | 9.5% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | Rangers | L2 Years | 32.9% | 12.1% | 17.7% | 2017 | 35.3% | 0.0% | 20.6% | Home | 33.3% | 10.6% | 18.8% | L14 Days | 35.3% | 0.0% | 20.6% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | L2 Years | 26.9% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 2017 | 37.5% | 14.8% | 19.4% | Road | 32.0% | 15.6% | 13.1% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 22.2% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Years | 25.8% | 14.5% | 5.2% | 2017 | 26.5% | 30.8% | 8.4% | Road | 25.3% | 20.0% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 33.3% | 4.7% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Years | 25.2% | 15.1% | 1.4% | 2017 | 18.9% | 14.3% | -12.2% | Road | 30.1% | 19.7% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 14.3% | -5.4% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Years | 33.1% | 11.2% | 14.9% | 2017 | 29.6% | 6.7% | 18.3% | Road | 33.1% | 13.2% | 15.1% | L14 Days | 30.6% | 0.0% | 27.8% |
| Dylan Covey | White Sox | L2 Years | 30.0% | 25.0% | 5.0% | 2017 | 30.0% | 25.0% | 5.0% | Home | L14 Days | 30.0% | 25.0% | 5.0% | |||
| Erasmo Ramirez | Rays | L2 Years | 28.4% | 12.6% | 9.7% | 2017 | 33.3% | 20.0% | 11.9% | Road | 29.4% | 22.9% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 23.1% | 5.9% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 28.5% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 2017 | 23.9% | 3.2% | 1.4% | Road | 30.8% | 8.8% | 12.4% | L14 Days | 19.4% | 0.0% | -5.6% |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | L2 Years | 26.5% | 16.0% | 9.0% | 2017 | 22.5% | 27.8% | 5.0% | Road | 24.4% | 17.7% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| German Marquez | Rockies | L2 Years | 29.7% | 18.2% | 16.2% | 2017 | Home | 23.7% | 0.0% | 7.9% | L14 Days | ||||||
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | L2 Years | 30.6% | 7.6% | 10.7% | 2017 | 37.3% | 19.2% | 21.3% | Home | 30.6% | 9.2% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 35.3% | 14.3% | 26.5% |
| JC Ramirez | Angels | L2 Years | 28.9% | 14.9% | 8.6% | 2017 | 32.6% | 14.3% | 4.3% | Home | 26.6% | 16.1% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 11.1% | 0.0% |
| Jesse Hahn | Athletics | L2 Years | 27.1% | 11.6% | 6.2% | 2017 | 28.6% | 4.8% | 3.6% | Road | 30.4% | 10.0% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 7.7% | -2.9% |
| Joe Ross | Nationals | L2 Years | 29.5% | 9.9% | 12.2% | 2017 | 21.1% | 16.7% | -5.2% | Road | 30.8% | 10.5% | 15.7% | L14 Days | 21.1% | 16.7% | -5.2% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Years | 29.9% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 2017 | 43.6% | 3.4% | 25.4% | Home | 34.5% | 12.6% | 17.7% | L14 Days | 37.8% | 4.8% | 16.2% |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | L2 Years | 34.1% | 17.0% | 18.7% | 2017 | 40.0% | 16.7% | 30.0% | Home | 33.0% | 19.2% | 19.9% | L14 Days | 38.9% | 20.0% | 30.6% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Years | 31.5% | 10.8% | 13.6% | 2017 | 20.9% | 7.4% | 1.5% | Road | 30.9% | 8.5% | 13.5% | L14 Days | 22.6% | 18.2% | 6.5% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | L2 Years | 26.2% | 11.5% | 4.1% | 2017 | 40.8% | 26.7% | 16.3% | Road | 27.2% | 12.3% | 2.8% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 28.6% | 12.5% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | L2 Years | 27.5% | 17.9% | 4.1% | 2017 | 23.4% | 26.7% | 0.0% | Road | 27.7% | 8.3% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 21.9% | 30.0% | 0.0% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 29.2% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 2017 | 30.8% | 9.7% | 20.0% | Road | 32.9% | 10.3% | 12.9% | L14 Days | 12.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | L2 Years | 30.3% | 11.6% | 10.3% | 2017 | 21.6% | 13.0% | 0.0% | Home | 32.2% | 11.8% | 13.5% | L14 Days | 16.2% | 16.7% | -8.1% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 35.1% | 15.2% | 19.5% | 2017 | 25.0% | 8.3% | 10.5% | Home | 41.1% | 16.9% | 29.5% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 18.2% | 5.1% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 32.1% | 11.1% | 14.8% | 2017 | 40.7% | 15.6% | 19.7% | Home | 33.2% | 9.0% | 14.6% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 23.5% | 15.0% |
| Robert Gsellman | Mets | L2 Years | 30.3% | 7.7% | 11.2% | 2017 | 35.3% | 18.2% | 13.7% | Home | 29.5% | 5.3% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 24.2% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Feldman | Reds | L2 Years | 24.4% | 11.7% | 5.1% | 2017 | 30.7% | 12.5% | 13.0% | Road | 25.0% | 15.1% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 8.3% | 11.8% |
| Ty Blach | Giants | L2 Years | 31.3% | 4.8% | 7.9% | 2017 | 35.3% | 0.0% | 17.6% | Home | 25.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 36.4% | 0.0% | 27.3% |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | L2 Years | 31.2% | 13.3% | 13.1% | 2017 | 33.3% | 28.6% | 17.9% | Home | 33.0% | 17.7% | 16.8% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 18.2% | 12.5% |
| Wade Miley | Orioles | L2 Years | 28.8% | 12.7% | 11.1% | 2017 | 35.9% | 15.4% | 20.5% | Home | 32.1% | 19.0% | 15.6% | L14 Days | 34.5% | 20.0% | 13.8% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | L2 Years | 30.9% | 12.9% | 11.7% | 2017 | 27.5% | 8.7% | 5.9% | Road | 32.4% | 17.2% | 17.0% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 11.8% | 6.3% |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | L2 Years | 33.7% | 12.1% | 13.3% | 2017 | 35.7% | 12.5% | 11.4% | Home | 35.2% | 13.8% | 17.3% | L14 Days | 35.3% | 18.2% | 8.8% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twins | Road | 37.7% | 9.7% | 24.6% | RH | 34.6% | 9.9% | 18.1% | L7Days | 36.0% | 8.9% | 18.7% |
| Giants | Home | 23.2% | 3.3% | 2.3% | LH | 29.6% | 12.3% | 8.4% | L7Days | 29.5% | 4.2% | 8.4% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 36.9% | 16.3% | 22.9% | LH | 31.9% | 7.7% | 16.9% | L7Days | 29.2% | 16.7% | 9.2% |
| Indians | Home | 35.0% | 15.1% | 18.4% | LH | 38.8% | 9.4% | 20.6% | L7Days | 36.8% | 12.1% | 11.1% |
| White Sox | Home | 31.0% | 7.9% | 11.3% | LH | 29.8% | 7.5% | 14.9% | L7Days | 26.5% | 8.1% | 6.8% |
| Royals | Road | 27.0% | 12.8% | 3.2% | RH | 27.2% | 11.6% | 4.1% | L7Days | 25.5% | 4.5% | 5.3% |
| Orioles | Home | 26.2% | 11.2% | 7.0% | RH | 31.0% | 16.4% | 9.9% | L7Days | 32.5% | 11.8% | 10.0% |
| Rangers | Home | 35.2% | 17.6% | 17.6% | RH | 32.7% | 14.4% | 13.6% | L7Days | 32.4% | 11.6% | 13.1% |
| Tigers | Home | 53.2% | 14.8% | 42.4% | RH | 42.7% | 13.2% | 27.1% | L7Days | 33.8% | 12.7% | 13.0% |
| Nationals | Road | 30.2% | 12.6% | 11.9% | RH | 30.1% | 11.9% | 12.6% | L7Days | 30.1% | 12.0% | 10.4% |
| Cubs | Road | 29.9% | 10.7% | 10.5% | RH | 28.1% | 9.2% | 11.4% | L7Days | 30.6% | 16.0% | 13.8% |
| Athletics | Road | 41.5% | 8.3% | 19.5% | RH | 35.2% | 15.6% | 18.1% | L7Days | 34.3% | 16.7% | 24.5% |
| Angels | Home | 27.0% | 14.1% | 8.2% | RH | 28.1% | 12.3% | 7.7% | L7Days | 25.3% | 9.1% | 2.7% |
| Rockies | Home | 31.0% | 19.4% | 11.6% | RH | 29.4% | 11.5% | 6.1% | L7Days | 32.9% | 23.4% | 12.9% |
| Mariners | Road | 24.1% | 8.6% | 2.7% | RH | 28.1% | 10.1% | 7.5% | L7Days | 31.0% | 6.3% | 9.5% |
| Astros | Road | 33.0% | 11.3% | 15.2% | RH | 33.1% | 15.2% | 13.7% | L7Days | 40.4% | 18.9% | 24.5% |
| Mets | Home | 26.9% | 9.8% | 6.9% | RH | 27.8% | 11.4% | 9.3% | L7Days | 25.5% | 10.0% | 2.6% |
| Pirates | Home | 26.5% | 9.9% | 4.2% | RH | 27.0% | 8.6% | 5.2% | L7Days | 22.2% | 10.6% | -0.6% |
| Red Sox | Home | 39.5% | 6.0% | 20.9% | RH | 37.6% | 6.0% | 18.8% | L7Days | 24.3% | 8.8% | -0.6% |
| Cardinals | Home | 23.7% | 8.6% | 4.3% | RH | 29.2% | 12.5% | 10.2% | L7Days | 37.7% | 10.7% | 20.1% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 32.5% | 11.6% | 11.6% | RH | 31.1% | 10.1% | 8.8% | L7Days | 31.3% | 17.5% | 7.1% |
| Padres | Road | 30.5% | 15.0% | 9.9% | LH | 29.0% | 10.7% | 5.5% | L7Days | 29.2% | 18.2% | 10.6% |
| Yankees | Road | 27.1% | 10.2% | 5.9% | RH | 30.4% | 14.5% | 8.9% | L7Days | 22.9% | 13.8% | 0.0% |
| Braves | Road | 29.1% | 11.9% | 10.7% | RH | 30.7% | 11.5% | 13.3% | L7Days | 24.5% | 9.3% | 2.0% |
| Brewers | Home | 41.4% | 22.2% | 21.6% | RH | 34.0% | 20.6% | 14.0% | L7Days | 40.5% | 26.1% | 20.9% |
| Dodgers | Road | 29.9% | 8.8% | 11.2% | LH | 32.3% | 9.0% | 18.5% | L7Days | 31.5% | 10.9% | 17.7% |
| Marlins | Road | 29.2% | 15.0% | 8.1% | RH | 32.3% | 17.1% | 12.0% | L7Days | 26.7% | 22.2% | 4.0% |
| Rays | Road | 32.4% | 15.9% | 12.2% | LH | 34.4% | 10.8% | 10.0% | L7Days | 36.6% | 13.2% | 19.1% |
| Phillies | Home | 26.6% | 13.3% | 1.3% | LH | 29.0% | 10.8% | -0.9% | L7Days | 32.9% | 10.6% | 4.5% |
| Reds | Road | 28.2% | 13.2% | 4.8% | RH | 28.5% | 10.8% | 6.8% | L7Days | 34.4% | 14.8% | 14.4% |
K/SwStr Chart (2016 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.5 SwStr% – 2.13 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 10.9% | 6.7% | 1.63 | 10.9% | 6.7% | 1.63 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 30.2% | 11.8% | 2.56 | 30.2% | 11.8% | 2.56 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 16.7% | 8.3% | 2.01 | 16.7% | 8.3% | 2.01 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 21.4% | 10.1% | 2.12 | 21.4% | 10.1% | 2.12 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 21.2% | 15.1% | 1.40 | 21.2% | 15.1% | 1.40 |
| Dylan Covey | CHW | 4.3% | 5.7% | 0.75 | 4.3% | 5.7% | 0.75 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 18.9% | 10.2% | 1.85 | 18.9% | 10.2% | 1.85 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 20.2% | 8.8% | 2.30 | 20.2% | 8.8% | 2.30 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 19.2% | 9.4% | 2.04 | 19.2% | 9.4% | 2.04 |
| German Marquez | COL | ||||||
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 19.0% | 8.7% | 2.18 | 19.0% | 8.7% | 2.18 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 22.7% | 12.3% | 1.85 | 22.7% | 12.3% | 1.85 |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | 18.2% | 8.2% | 2.22 | 18.2% | 8.2% | 2.22 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 25.9% | 7.0% | 3.70 | 25.9% | 7.0% | 3.70 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 13.7% | 8.5% | 1.61 | 13.7% | 8.5% | 1.61 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 13.1% | 5.3% | 2.47 | 13.1% | 5.3% | 2.47 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 18.4% | 8.7% | 2.11 | 18.4% | 8.7% | 2.11 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 18.8% | 6.9% | 2.72 | 18.8% | 6.9% | 2.72 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 35.5% | 11.3% | 3.14 | 35.5% | 11.3% | 3.14 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 24.2% | 12.7% | 1.91 | 24.2% | 12.7% | 1.91 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 23.3% | 12.3% | 1.89 | 23.3% | 12.3% | 1.89 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 15.2% | 7.9% | 1.92 | 15.2% | 7.9% | 1.92 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 21.1% | 10.6% | 1.99 | 21.1% | 10.6% | 1.99 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 25.3% | 7.6% | 3.33 | 25.3% | 7.6% | 3.33 |
| Scott Feldman | CIN | 21.4% | 10.3% | 2.08 | 21.4% | 10.3% | 2.08 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 8.7% | 2.8% | 3.11 | 8.7% | 2.8% | 3.11 |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | 27.5% | 9.0% | 3.06 | 27.5% | 9.0% | 3.06 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 33.3% | 8.9% | 3.74 | 33.3% | 8.9% | 3.74 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | MIA | 15.4% | 7.9% | 1.95 | 15.4% | 7.9% | 1.95 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 16.7% | 7.5% | 2.23 | 16.7% | 7.5% | 2.23 |
We’re still dealing with small sample sizes and inconsistencies from start to start as you’ll see all season long in SwStr rates. The one I most believe in here is the coming uptick in “(player-popup)Danny Duffy”:/players/danny-duffy-11224’s strikeout rate. Well, also that Wade Miley isn’t going to continue striking out one-third of batters faced, though he may get close to that tonight.
ERA Estimators Chart (2016 LG AVG – 4.34 ERA – 4.30 SIERA – 4.24 xFIP – 4.30 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 2.38 | 6.1 | 3.72 | 5.44 | 3.06 | 3.87 | 1.49 | 6.19 | 3.81 | 2.38 | 6.11 | 3.73 | 5.44 | 3.06 | 3.87 | 1.49 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 2.54 | 2.34 | -0.2 | 2.4 | -0.14 | 2.69 | 0.15 | 1.81 | -0.73 | 2.54 | 2.34 | -0.2 | 2.4 | -0.14 | 2.69 | 0.15 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 3.04 | 3.17 | 0.13 | 3.13 | 0.09 | 4.29 | 1.25 | 2.08 | -0.96 | 3.04 | 3.18 | 0.14 | 3.13 | 0.09 | 4.29 | 1.25 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 0.96 | 2.83 | 1.87 | 2.89 | 1.93 | 3.01 | 2.05 | 0.55 | -0.41 | 0.96 | 2.83 | 1.87 | 2.89 | 1.93 | 3.01 | 2.05 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 1.32 | 4.18 | 2.86 | 4.28 | 2.96 | 3.45 | 2.13 | 2.27 | 0.95 | 1.32 | 4.18 | 2.86 | 4.28 | 2.96 | 3.45 | 2.13 |
| Dylan Covey | CHW | 7.84 | 6.2 | -1.64 | 5.85 | -1.99 | 7.74 | -0.1 | 7.69 | -0.15 | 7.84 | 6.21 | -1.63 | 5.85 | -1.99 | 7.74 | -0.1 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 3.07 | 3.23 | 0.16 | 3.4 | 0.33 | 4.4 | 1.33 | 3.41 | 0.34 | 3.07 | 3.23 | 0.16 | 3.4 | 0.33 | 4.4 | 1.33 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 0.64 | 4.14 | 3.5 | 4.12 | 3.48 | 2.79 | 2.15 | 1.58 | 0.94 | 0.64 | 4.14 | 3.5 | 4.12 | 3.48 | 2.79 | 2.15 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 3.65 | 2.98 | -0.67 | 2.83 | -0.82 | 4.28 | 0.63 | 3.64 | -0.01 | 3.65 | 2.99 | -0.66 | 2.83 | -0.82 | 4.28 | 0.63 |
| German Marquez | COL | ||||||||||||||||
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 4.7 | 3.94 | -0.76 | 3.86 | -0.84 | 4.86 | 0.16 | 5.36 | 0.66 | 4.7 | 3.94 | -0.76 | 3.86 | -0.84 | 4.86 | 0.16 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 6.46 | 3.49 | -2.97 | 3.4 | -3.06 | 3.62 | -2.84 | 1.32 | -5.14 | 6.46 | 3.49 | -2.97 | 3.4 | -3.06 | 3.62 | -2.84 |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | 3 | 4.39 | 1.39 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 3.23 | 0.23 | 3.03 | 0.03 | 3 | 4.39 | 1.39 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 3.23 | 0.23 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 3.86 | 2.95 | -0.91 | 2.72 | -1.14 | 3.18 | -0.68 | 1.34 | -2.52 | 3.86 | 2.95 | -0.91 | 2.72 | -1.14 | 3.18 | -0.68 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 5.94 | 5.7 | -0.24 | 5.96 | 0.02 | 3.92 | -2.02 | 2.23 | -3.71 | 5.94 | 5.72 | -0.22 | 5.96 | 0.02 | 3.92 | -2.02 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 11.68 | 3.89 | -7.79 | 3.91 | -7.77 | 4.44 | -7.24 | 12.66 | 0.98 | 11.68 | 3.89 | -7.79 | 3.91 | -7.77 | 4.44 | -7.24 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 3.52 | 4.83 | 1.31 | 4.93 | 1.41 | 4.16 | 0.64 | 2.92 | -0.60 | 3.52 | 4.83 | 1.31 | 4.93 | 1.41 | 4.16 | 0.64 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 6.19 | 4.27 | -1.92 | 4.11 | -2.08 | 5.84 | -0.35 | 10.49 | 4.30 | 6.19 | 4.27 | -1.92 | 4.11 | -2.08 | 5.84 | -0.35 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 4.05 | 1.83 | -2.22 | 1.72 | -2.33 | 3.1 | -0.95 | 1.11 | -2.94 | 4.05 | 1.83 | -2.22 | 1.72 | -2.33 | 3.1 | -0.95 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 2.63 | 3.81 | 1.18 | 4.25 | 1.62 | 3.77 | 1.14 | 6.94 | 4.31 | 2.63 | 3.81 | 1.18 | 4.25 | 1.62 | 3.77 | 1.14 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 2.41 | 3.69 | 1.28 | 3.88 | 1.47 | 3.97 | 1.56 | 3.06 | 0.65 | 2.41 | 3.7 | 1.29 | 3.88 | 1.47 | 3.97 | 1.56 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 3.27 | 4.39 | 1.12 | 4.4 | 1.13 | 3.81 | 0.54 | 7.10 | 3.83 | 3.27 | 4.39 | 1.12 | 4.4 | 1.13 | 3.81 | 0.54 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 5.32 | 3.57 | -1.75 | 3.78 | -1.54 | 4.34 | -0.98 | 6.75 | 1.43 | 5.32 | 3.58 | -1.74 | 3.78 | -1.54 | 4.34 | -0.98 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 5.09 | 3.1 | -1.99 | 3 | -2.09 | 3.47 | -1.62 | 4.58 | -0.51 | 5.09 | 3.11 | -1.98 | 3 | -2.09 | 3.47 | -1.62 |
| Scott Feldman | CIN | 2.38 | 4.11 | 1.73 | 4 | 1.62 | 4 | 1.62 | 3.10 | 0.72 | 2.38 | 4.12 | 1.74 | 4 | 1.62 | 4 | 1.62 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 4.76 | 5.94 | 1.18 | 6.03 | 1.27 | 4.31 | -0.45 | 3.84 | -0.92 | 4.76 | 5.94 | 1.18 | 6.03 | 1.27 | 4.31 | -0.45 |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | 7.2 | 4.09 | -3.11 | 4.08 | -3.12 | 6.03 | -1.17 | 4.29 | -2.91 | 7.2 | 4.09 | -3.11 | 4.08 | -3.12 | 6.03 | -1.17 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 1.89 | 3 | 1.11 | 2.9 | 1.01 | 3.16 | 1.27 | 0.86 | -1.03 | 1.89 | 3 | 1.11 | 2.9 | 1.01 | 3.16 | 1.27 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | MIA | 3.94 | 4.49 | 0.55 | 4.73 | 0.79 | 4.02 | 0.08 | 4.02 | 0.08 | 3.94 | 4.49 | 0.55 | 4.73 | 0.79 | 4.02 | 0.08 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 8.24 | 4.76 | -3.48 | 4.78 | -3.46 | 4.78 | -3.46 | 7.36 | -0.88 | 8.24 | 4.77 | -3.47 | 4.78 | -3.46 | 4.78 | -3.46 |
Clayton Kershaw is where our early season sanity lies. He’s the only pitcher on the board without a single one of our more traditional ERA estimators (non-DRA) at least a half run removed from his ERA.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2016 LG AVG – .298 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.9 LD% – 9.5 IFFB% – 87.2 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 0.265 | 0.235 | -0.03 | 50.0% | 0.176 | 0.0% | 92.9% | 85.5 | 2.90% | 2.90% | 34 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 0.289 | 0.221 | -0.068 | 43.7% | 0.183 | 14.8% | 87.7% | 86.8 | 6.90% | 6.90% | 72 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 0.260 | 0.304 | 0.044 | 67.1% | 0.171 | 7.7% | 91.1% | 86.9 | 4.80% | 4.80% | 83 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 0.272 | 0.194 | -0.078 | 70.0% | 0.1 | 0.0% | 92.1% | 84.9 | 5.40% | 5.40% | 74 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 0.276 | 0.232 | -0.044 | 43.7% | 0.141 | 6.7% | 81.4% | 89.5 | 4.20% | 4.20% | 71 |
| Dylan Covey | CHW | 0.242 | 0.324 | 0.082 | 50.0% | 0.2 | 0.0% | 89.1% | 88.2 | 10.00% | 10.00% | 40 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 0.272 | 0.154 | -0.118 | 47.6% | 0.167 | 0.0% | 84.1% | 87.1 | 14.30% | 14.30% | 42 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 0.258 | 0.114 | -0.144 | 40.0% | 0.157 | 19.4% | 88.4% | 82.5 | 1.40% | 1.40% | 70 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 0.300 | 0.368 | 0.068 | 52.6% | 0.244 | 5.6% | 90.8% | 86.6 | 7.50% | 7.50% | 80 |
| German Marquez | COL | 0.278 | ||||||||||
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 0.301 | 0.314 | 0.013 | 44.4% | 0.194 | 3.8% | 89.4% | 88.8 | 8.00% | 8.00% | 75 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 0.279 | 0.341 | 0.062 | 46.7% | 0.222 | 21.4% | 79.2% | 86.8 | 6.50% | 6.50% | 46 |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | 0.256 | 0.255 | -0.001 | 34.5% | 0.273 | 4.8% | 93.0% | 87 | 5.40% | 5.40% | 56 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 0.281 | 0.278 | -0.003 | 41.2% | 0.235 | 0.0% | 89.3% | 80.5 | 5.30% | 5.30% | 19 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 0.303 | 0.315 | 0.012 | 20.4% | 0.259 | 20.7% | 83.0% | 89.6 | 9.10% | 9.10% | 55 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 0.321 | 0.417 | 0.096 | 53.1% | 0.224 | 0.0% | 94.1% | 88.8 | 8.00% | 8.00% | 50 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 0.288 | 0.308 | 0.02 | 30.8% | 0.277 | 0.0% | 88.1% | 84.2 | 3.00% | 3.00% | 67 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 0.268 | 0.244 | -0.024 | 54.2% | 0.146 | 6.7% | 91.4% | 86.7 | 6.10% | 6.10% | 49 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 0.277 | 0.233 | -0.044 | 50.0% | 0.174 | 13.3% | 86.4% | 89.6 | 14.90% | 14.90% | 47 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 0.291 | 0.258 | -0.033 | 39.7% | 0.111 | 0.0% | 75.8% | 88.3 | 3.10% | 3.10% | 65 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 0.309 | 0.271 | -0.038 | 34.0% | 0.2 | 4.3% | 82.4% | 81.9 | 7.80% | 7.80% | 51 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 0.300 | 0.311 | 0.011 | 49.3% | 0.187 | 8.3% | 87.5% | 88.2 | 6.70% | 6.70% | 75 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 0.288 | 0.342 | 0.054 | 44.4% | 0.16 | 12.5% | 85.5% | 89.7 | 13.60% | 13.60% | 81 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 0.293 | 0.327 | 0.034 | 54.0% | 0.24 | 9.1% | 87.8% | 86.8 | 5.90% | 5.90% | 51 |
| Scott Feldman | CIN | 0.266 | 0.271 | 0.005 | 34.4% | 0.262 | 4.2% | 83.5% | 87.3 | 9.70% | 9.70% | 62 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 0.302 | 0.176 | -0.126 | 37.5% | 0.25 | 0.0% | 95.2% | 82.4 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 17 |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | 0.268 | 0.314 | 0.046 | 46.2% | 0.179 | 21.4% | 83.9% | 89.6 | 10.30% | 10.30% | 39 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 0.300 | 0.162 | -0.138 | 48.7% | 0.179 | 7.7% | 91.8% | 85.6 | 5.10% | 5.10% | 39 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | MIA | 0.257 | 0.245 | -0.012 | 35.4% | 0.167 | 8.7% | 87.6% | 85.1 | 3.90% | 3.90% | 51 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 0.311 | 0.388 | 0.077 | 44.1% | 0.206 | 12.5% | 89.1% | 84.6 | 8.60% | 8.60% | 70 |
At least we’re not seeing many .400 or sub-.200 BABIPs left among those who have made at least a couple of starts. There are an inordinate number of low line drive rates and improved Z-Contact rates as more and more hitters try to put everything over the wall.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Between weather, matchups and talent, the lines are very narrow on this slate. While I clearly like Kershaw and Gsellman for the cost more than other pitchers on this slate, there are several I considered, but ultimately left off this list along with a few who almost didn’t make it. Despite how it’s separated and neatly fit here, there are very few arms you’d be considered crazy for even considering tonight. Most arms can have some sort of argument made for them tonight.
Value Tier One
Robert Gsellman is likely going to be unusable due to weather risk tonight, but I didn’t find this out until after most of this article was written, so I’ll maintain the original rankings, but add an extra one or two in drier spots tonight. A strong ground ball generator with a league average strikeout rate is a package easily worth more than $7K tonight, especially against an ice cold offense, though he’s closer to a good than great value at nearly $8K.
Value Tier Two
Clayton Kershaw (1) the clear and far away top overall arm tonight, but he costs $4K more than any other pitcher on DraftKings and $3K more than any other on FanDuel against the least strikeout prone offense in the National League. Only nine other pitchers on DraftKings cost even half as much as him.
Value Tier Three
Wade Miley costs just under $7K on DraftKings and is facing one of the top two strikeout prone offenses in baseball. He’s run the gamut from disaster to dominant in three starts this year, but should certainly have some upside in this one. The Rays may be an above average offense against LHP, but they’re not as good as they’ve show so far. He may drop a tier for a little over $1K more on FanDuel.
Danny Duffy (2) should see more strikeouts going forward, but already seems to have been priced up for that potential. Perhaps it’s the quality of opponent in addition to the fact that he’s gotten through seven innings in each of his last three starts, but I was hoping we’d see something a bit cheaper when looking at his strikeout rate in relation to his SwStr%. He’s still certainly playable, but he carries the second highest price tag on DraftKings tonight.
Clayton Richard usually doesn’t miss a ton of bats, but he did strike out eight Diamondbacks in his last start and he’s certainly going to keep the ball on the ground. He has not had a ground ball rate below 52% since moving into the San Diego rotation last August. If you’re using Kershaw, you probably need to pair him with a cheap SP2 and he shouldn’t hurt you much, which is more than you can say about almost every other pitcher in his price range. Why not consider making it a pair of Claytons?
Scott Feldman probably isn’t for real with his new found bat missing ability or his low ERA (92% strand rate), while the type of contact he’s initiating this year is a bit concerning, but that’s not even really why we’re on him today. It’s more about the low price against one of the two most strikeout prone offenses in the majors.
Luis Severino still has some questions and is in a bad spot. Performance does seem to be enough to put him here, but the cost is climbing and I can’t profess to love this as much as the numbers seem to because I’m not completely sold on that third pitch. Perhaps actually watching the game will solve the problem, but that’s where we run into another one. This may all be for moot because it’s one of several games Kevin’s early report has identified as a “Death by Weather” candidate.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Michael Wacha is missing a lot more bats and generating incredibly weak contact this year. He’s in a nice spot at home against the Blue Jays tonight for less than $8K. Bump him up a tier on DraftKings, where he’s less than $7K.
Marco Estrada is missing bats at a nearly elite rate this month. Newer metrics begin to explain some of his success in a way you might be able to buy into more. While not entirely there yet, and despite a cost above $8K, he’s here as a reasonable weather related pivot in a big park tonight.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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