Advanced Stats - Pitching: Wednesday, April 12th
Before starting, just a reminder to readers that there will not be an article tomorrow. Today’s introduction will be about Park Factors, which have been updated to include 2016 stats in the three year numbers. Multiple years are better than just one because more data is generally always better than less.
Coors remains the most hitter friendly environment and it’s not even close, while Safeco and Dodger Stadium are currently the most pitcher friendly.
Remember, this is overall run factor or scoring environment, as opposed to power or HR friendliness. Those are two different and distinct things. Parks can be and often are power friendly and either run neutral or negative or vice versa. In fact, Safeco made the biggest jump to seven percent more power friendliness this year. Also, some parks are better or worse suited to certain pitcher types of skill sets. Consider that Yankee Stadium is effectively run neutral, but is more likely to cause issues for a fly ball prone RHP.
Biggest movers this year are in Boston, Arizona and Cleveland. All go from already hitter friendly environments to even more so with run scoring up six percent in each park. Wrigley Field and Houston are the biggest movers in the negative environment, going from slightly hitter friendly or neutral to negative run environments with a seven percent move each. This is probably a surprise, as both parks are known as being power friendly and Wrigley really can be many different things on any given day depending on the winds. Changing weather patterns may be factor in any year to year changes in scoring environment. Ideally, historic monthly factors would be an interesting measure, but I know of no such record that exists on the internet.
Lastly, Atlanta is the only new park to open this year and assumed neutral until we know better. I know of no other parks that underwent significant alterations this off-season.
Just a reminder that we’re using 2017 stats for everything except DRA, Statcast numbers and Team Defense. Please consider sample size for the next couple of weeks.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2016 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | 1.9 | 4.62 | 5.09 | 29.1% | 0.91 | 5.18 | 4.21 | ANA | 193 | 165 | 104 |
| Amir Garrett | CIN | 0.4 | 4.45 | 6. | 33.3% | 0.97 | 4.46 | 4.45 | PIT | 88 | 10 | 77 |
| Andrew Triggs | OAK | -8.3 | 3.54 | 4.44 | 50.8% | 1.06 | 3.32 | 6.53 | KAN | 4 | 75 | 64 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | -1.4 | 4.61 | 4.76 | 35.3% | 1.01 | 4.19 | 6.06 | NYY | 174 | 58 | 107 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 2.3 | 4.11 | 4.92 | 34.8% | 0.96 | 4.6 | 3.94 | CHC | 59 | 64 | 113 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | -7.2 | 4.49 | 5.32 | 39.0% | 1.03 | 4.81 | 4.55 | TOR | 55 | 52 | 80 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 5.4 | 3.58 | 5.86 | 45.7% | 1.09 | 3.64 | 3.26 | CHW | 51 | 75 | 108 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 3.3 | 4.82 | 5.63 | 39.4% | 1.09 | 5.59 | 3.59 | CLE | 120 | 113 | 94 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | -2.8 | 4.05 | 5.64 | 51.6% | 0.97 | 3.74 | 3.65 | CIN | 108 | 106 | 112 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | -0.9 | 3.77 | 5.9 | 58.1% | 0.94 | 4.39 | 6.91 | FLA | 134 | 96 | 88 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 4.9 | 3.9 | 5.52 | 40.0% | 1.06 | 4.03 | 7.08 | OAK | 94 | 105 | 84 |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | 6.5 | 3.85 | 5.78 | 42.8% | 0.91 | 3.71 | 2.92 | TEX | 124 | 98 | 85 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 9.1 | 3.82 | 6.55 | 44.3% | 0.96 | 3.91 | 2.98 | LOS | 84 | 146 | 65 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | -3.1 | 2.72 | 6. | 66.7% | 1.39 | 2.49 | 2.72 | SDG | 62 | 102 | 97 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | -5.8 | 4.31 | 6.02 | 51.6% | 0.98 | 4.91 | 3.56 | DET | 113 | 106 | 140 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | -5.9 | 4.01 | 5.81 | 59.4% | 1.39 | 3.7 | 2.95 | COL | 60 | 77 | 73 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 2.2 | 3.57 | 6.41 | 60.6% | 1.03 | 3.52 | 2.95 | MIL | 117 | 78 | 103 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 4.8 | 4.74 | 5.01 | 37.0% | 0.93 | 4.91 | 5.53 | ARI | 58 | 126 | 106 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 1.1 | 2.83 | 6.81 | 34.3% | 1.01 | 2.91 | 3.4 | STL | 69 | 72 | 129 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | -5.1 | 4.05 | 6.11 | 48.8% | 0.98 | 4.12 | 4.48 | MIN | 77 | 124 | 92 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 4.2 | 4.11 | 5.68 | 40.2% | 0.89 | 4.65 | 5.05 | SEA | 144 | 82 | 124 |
| Mike Leake | STL | -5.3 | 4.02 | 6.18 | 52.6% | 1.01 | 3.98 | 3.35 | WAS | 152 | 125 | 91 |
| Mike Montgomery | NYY | 0.8 | 4.07 | 5.44 | 54.3% | 1.01 | 3.14 | 4.82 | TAM | -19 | 136 | 73 |
| Shelby Miller | ARI | -6.1 | 4.48 | 5.78 | 45.3% | 0.93 | 5.29 | 3.55 | SFO | 98 | 102 | 155 |
| Steven Wright | BOS | 4.1 | 4.54 | 6.33 | 0.434 | 1.13 | 4.96 | 4.72 | BAL | 29 | 76 | 95 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 2.8 | 4.76 | 5.63 | 0.442 | 0.94 | 4.51 | 5.03 | ATL | 81 | 81 | 105 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | -3.2 | 4.28 | 5.52 | 0.487 | 1.13 | 4.83 | 3.23 | BOS | 122 | 103 | 58 |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | 1.9 | 3.6 | 5.41 | 0.337 | 0.96 | 3.25 | 2.03 | NYM | 193 | 68 | 115 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | -4.3 | 4.92 | 5.41 | 0.469 | 0.89 | 5.2 | 4.32 | HOU | 108 | 116 | 85 |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | 1.3 | 3.43 | 4. | 0.5 | 0.96 | 3.43 | PHI | 119 | 105 | 75 |
Important Note – Because I’m a dumb, dumb, I did not realize until late this morning that I had erroneously listed Mike Montgomery of the Cubs instead of Jordan Montgomery of the Yankees. It being a day game is the primary reason this remained unnoticed.
Amir Garrett pitched well in his debut, before which I wrote:
“Garrett is a highly regarded pitching prospect who ranked second on the Reds list and 65th in the top 100 for Fangraphs this season. The stuff isn’t amazing, but he has several pitchers projected anywhere from at least useful to above average. His strikeout rates were above average until being merely average at AAA last season. He does have occasional issues with control, sitting with a walk rate above 9% at just about every stop of the minors. This likely means we’re looking at a K-BB% a bit below average in the majors at this point.”
The Cardinals, who generally struggle against LHP, managed just two hits against him, while striking out four times. Nearly half of the Pirates’ PAs against LHP so far have come against Chris Sale, so they’re not that bad against lefties. The park greatly suppresses RH power, but this is a patient lineup, who could give him more trouble than St Louis did.
Andrew Triggs generated just three swinging strikes and one strikeout in his first start against the Angels, while walking three. He had a 17.6 K-BB% in 56 major league innings last year and rates above that throughout the minors. Kansas City is off to a rough start. This is a lineup he should be able to navigate.
Brandon McCarthy looked decent in his first start with the caveat being that it was against the Padres. He held his velocity at what it’s been since 2014 (93-94 mph), which is a great sign coming off so many injury issues the last two seasons, but he didn’t generate many swings and misses. This is certainly a more difficult assignment at Wrigley, though early season conditions more often favor pitchers in that park.
Ivan Nova shut down the Braves over six innings, allowing just one base runner in his first start, but his four strikeouts were generated upon just four swings and misses. A pronounced GB pitcher, he’s going to be perhaps the most interesting case study for the new pitching up in the zone philosophy in Pittsburgh this year. He went through several experimental phases with the Yankees, but could never figure out a way to navigate that short RF porch. Pittsburgh should look for him to continue to generate ground balls, hopefully generating enough strikeouts to at least be DFS useful, which is what he should be tonight, at home against the Reds.
Jesse Chavez looked really good out of the gate. He struck out six Mariners, allowing only five of the 22 batters he faced to reach base. This is normally what he’s done as a starter. He starts strong and then seems to tire or fade as the season wears on. If this is going to be the case again, he’s in one of the most pitcher friendly run environments in baseball against an over-rated and likely just average offense.
Marcus Stroman opened the season well against the Rays with just enough strikeouts (five) and generating 62.5% ground balls, similar to last season. Hard contact (47.1%) was at a rate higher than you’d like to see, but the Rays elevated just one batted ball. Milwaukee should be a nice matchup for him as they are predominantly right-handed (at least in terms of power potential) and have struck out 32.5% of the time against RHP so far this season.
Shelby Miller held his spring velocity in his first start and got batters to swing through a quarter of his 28 cutters. He struck out seven of 25 Indians in his season debut, but walked three and allowed three runs. He’s not perfect, but should be better. The dilemma always apparent in opposing pitchers traveling to San Francisco is balancing the park upgrade with a lower strikeout expectation. It’s generally something of a wash.
Tom Koehler walked three of 21 Nationals in his first start because that’s what he does, but the only damage came on a solo HR. He can miss bats at about a league average rate and could be of use here in a nice spot against a Kemp-less Atlanta offense.
Vince Velasquez struck out 10 of 20 Nationals in his season debut, but with three walks as well, 94 pitches only got him through four innings. He dealt with injuries last season and after striking out 25 of his first 54 batters, went through 17 straight starts in which he only struck out more than six three times (more than seven once) before finishing the season with four straight starts of seven or more Ks, though he also allowed 10 HRs over his last five starts. He’s obviously a very high upside pitcher, but walks and HRs were each occasionally issues. The Mets hit seven HRs last night, so they certainly have significant power and some patience, but they will strike out too.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.298 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)
Steven Wright (.279 – 69.3% – 7.1 in 2016) has all that knuckleball craziness going for him, but faces a difficult Baltimore lineup against RHP. He has a 5.06 ERA in 42.2 second half of the season innings last year after his BABIP normalized (.299) and his ground ball rate plummeted nearly 14 points. We shouldn’t expect HR suppression to continue at last year’s rate either, though Boston isn’t actually a power friendly park to LHBs. David Ortiz just made it look that way.
John Lackey (.255 – 76.2% – 12.9 in 2016) is the Cubs starter I’m most comfortable projecting a big step backwards for this year. While rotation mates used an amazing defense to enhance strong contact management skills, Lackey was almost completely dependent upon them, as he was the only one of the four mainstays with a hard hit rate above 30% (34.4%). His strikeout rate dropped four full points to 21.5% in the second half. He’s probably more serviceable than good at this point, though he did send seven of 26 Cardinals back to the bench in shame in his first start. A matchup with the Dodgers might be an even less enviable task for tonight’s most expensive pitcher. They’ve come out of the gate torching RHP.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Mike Fiers struck out just three Royals despite generating 14 swinging strikes in one of those strange outliers you’ll see after just one start. Expectation should be for regression of each of those numbers going forward to something around league average. Seattle has a decent offense with some pop. Even though the park has become a bit more power friendly, it’s a pitcher’s park for overall run environment, but his cost appears a bit too high here.
Yovani Gallardo topped that list of velocity surgers in the article linked in the Shelby Miller paragraph above and generated nine swinging strikes against the Angels in his first start, but still didn’t have great results. We’ll need to see quite a bit more from him, but sustaining the velocity and bat missing skills another start or two could begin to make him more interesting.
Jason Hammel struggled in his Kansas City debut. His velocity was down close to a full mph, which could mean closer to 1.5 mph considering the new Statcast measuring. He walked twice as many as he struck out.
Jaime Garcia looked terrible in his first start against the Mets. Without making too much of one start, he generated just four swinging strikes and matching 39.1% Hard and GB rates. Expect improvement in the ground ball rate, but some of this is a continuation of flaws apparent last season and the Marlins have some RH power.
Zack Wheeler was a mess in his first start after a good first inning. I have no idea why he costs more than $8K on DraftKings. The good news is that he did throw two-thirds of his pitches for strikes and kept half of his contact on the ground.
Ubaldo Jimenez walked just one Yankee in his first start, but still allowed five runs (two HRs). It certainly doesn’t get easier in Boston.
Chase Anderson has a career reverse split (.361 wOBA vs RHBs, .308 vs LHBs) due to the changeup being his best pitch. This may do him no favors in Toronto.
Matt Cain was down two mph to 88.3 on the Statcast guns in his first start. That he’s not even usable at a very low price in this spot means he’s not likely long for the San Francisco rotation this year. It’s now been nearly five years since he’s been a good major league pitcher.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | Rangers | L2 Years | 21.1% | 9.1% | Road | 22.1% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 11.8% |
| Amir Garrett | Reds | L2 Years | 19.1% | 9.5% | Road | 19.1% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 19.1% | 9.5% |
| Andrew Triggs | Athletics | L2 Years | 21.4% | 6.1% | Road | 22.9% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 4.2% | 12.5% |
| Blake Snell | Rays | L2 Years | 24.0% | 13.1% | Road | 23.1% | 11.0% | L14 Days | 17.9% | 17.9% |
| Brandon McCarthy | Dodgers | L2 Years | 25.9% | 11.4% | Road | 21.9% | 14.1% | L14 Days | 17.4% | 4.4% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Years | 17.8% | 7.1% | Road | 17.4% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 17.4% | 8.7% |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | L2 Years | 26.7% | 8.8% | Home | 27.1% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 16.7% |
| Derek Holland | White Sox | L2 Years | 15.5% | 7.3% | Road | 13.7% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 4.0% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Years | 17.3% | 5.4% | Home | 17.9% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 16.0% | 0.0% |
| Jaime Garcia | Braves | L2 Years | 19.4% | 7.0% | Road | 18.5% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 0.0% | 8.0% |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | L2 Years | 22.3% | 6.8% | Home | 22.5% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 8.0% | 16.0% |
| Jesse Chavez | Angels | L2 Years | 21.0% | 6.9% | Home | 23.4% | 4.7% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 4.6% |
| John Lackey | Cubs | L2 Years | 21.9% | 6.4% | Home | 23.1% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 26.9% | 7.7% |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | L2 Years | 25.0% | 8.3% | Home | 25.0% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 8.3% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | L2 Years | 17.3% | 8.0% | Road | 15.8% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 23.8% | 9.5% |
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | L2 Years | 15.8% | 6.9% | Road | 18.0% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 13.0% | 4.4% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 19.3% | 6.3% | Home | 18.0% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 8.3% |
| Matt Cain | Giants | L2 Years | 16.8% | 8.0% | Home | 17.6% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 31.1% | 5.0% | Home | 33.4% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 28.0% | 8.0% |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | L2 Years | 20.3% | 6.6% | Home | 20.1% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 8.3% |
| Mike Fiers | Astros | L2 Years | 20.8% | 7.3% | Road | 16.4% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 11.5% | 11.5% |
| Mike Leake | Cardinals | L2 Years | 15.9% | 4.8% | Road | 16.1% | 4.7% | L14 Days | 20.7% | 3.5% |
| Mike Montgomery | Yankees | L2 Years | 19.4% | 9.5% | Home | 25.6% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 18.8% |
| Shelby Miller | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 18.4% | 8.8% | Road | 13.3% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 28.0% | 12.0% |
| Steven Wright | Red Sox | L2 Years | 18.7% | 8.7% | Home | 17.7% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 14.8% | 11.1% |
| Tom Koehler | Marlins | L2 Years | 18.1% | 10.2% | Home | 20.9% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 19.1% | 14.3% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | L2 Years | 20.6% | 9.7% | Road | 19.3% | 11.0% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 5.0% |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | L2 Years | 27.4% | 8.6% | Home | 33.8% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 15.0% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Mariners | L2 Years | 15.5% | 9.8% | Home | 17.2% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 16.0% | 8.0% |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | L2 Years | 21.1% | 5.3% | Road | L14 Days | 21.1% | 5.3% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angels | Home | 16.5% | 9.5% | RH | 17.2% | 8.4% | L7Days | 14.4% | 8.8% |
| Pirates | Home | 15.5% | 10.9% | LH | 32.3% | 10.8% | L7Days | 26.8% | 8.1% |
| Royals | Home | 36.4% | 12.1% | RH | 25.5% | 7.1% | L7Days | 23.6% | 6.0% |
| Yankees | Home | 18.9% | 2.7% | LH | 22.9% | 20.0% | L7Days | 17.4% | 10.4% |
| Cubs | Home | 25.6% | 17.9% | RH | 25.1% | 9.1% | L7Days | 20.4% | 12.2% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 27.0% | 13.5% | RH | 23.7% | 7.6% | L7Days | 20.2% | 13.3% |
| White Sox | Road | 34.3% | 0.0% | RH | 24.9% | 6.6% | L7Days | 22.3% | 7.8% |
| Indians | Home | 30.8% | 17.9% | LH | 15.1% | 11.6% | L7Days | 20.7% | 12.0% |
| Reds | Road | 16.1% | 7.8% | RH | 18.2% | 6.9% | L7Days | 20.4% | 5.4% |
| Marlins | Home | 20.0% | 8.6% | LH | 20.0% | 12.3% | L7Days | 20.3% | 7.4% |
| Athletics | Road | 21.5% | 8.1% | RH | 22.7% | 8.2% | L7Days | 21.3% | 7.1% |
| Rangers | Road | 21.4% | 4.8% | RH | 24.7% | 7.7% | L7Days | 23.3% | 8.1% |
| Dodgers | Road | 23.7% | 9.2% | RH | 16.1% | 14.9% | L7Days | 20.5% | 6.0% |
| Padres | Road | 25.6% | 6.3% | RH | 21.6% | 9.0% | L7Days | 25.5% | 5.0% |
| Tigers | Home | 24.7% | 10.6% | RH | 26.2% | 15.2% | L7Days | 25.8% | 7.5% |
| Rockies | Home | 26.0% | 4.7% | RH | 21.5% | 9.4% | L7Days | 28.1% | 3.5% |
| Brewers | Road | 32.5% | 2.5% | RH | 32.5% | 9.0% | L7Days | 23.7% | 8.5% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 23.3% | 5.5% | RH | 23.7% | 8.6% | L7Days | 22.2% | 7.4% |
| Cardinals | Road | 17.6% | 1.4% | RH | 20.8% | 11.3% | L7Days | 18.0% | 8.4% |
| Twins | Road | 24.5% | 6.3% | RH | 22.3% | 13.1% | L7Days | 25.6% | 10.5% |
| Mariners | Home | 15.4% | 10.3% | RH | 22.3% | 8.2% | L7Days | 23.6% | 8.0% |
| Nationals | Home | 16.8% | 11.4% | RH | 21.5% | 10.6% | L7Days | 22.5% | 11.3% |
| Rays | Road | 41.4% | 0.0% | LH | 21.7% | 17.4% | L7Days | 20.8% | 5.3% |
| Giants | Home | 20.3% | 12.7% | RH | 20.4% | 7.8% | L7Days | 16.9% | 9.7% |
| Orioles | Road | 26.5% | 5.9% | RH | 21.1% | 6.3% | L7Days | 23.9% | 8.3% |
| Braves | Road | 22.6% | 6.1% | RH | 23.0% | 7.0% | L7Days | 23.1% | 8.8% |
| Red Sox | Home | 18.3% | 9.2% | RH | 17.5% | 7.8% | L7Days | 17.1% | 11.1% |
| Mets | Road | 19.5% | 11.5% | RH | 24.5% | 8.0% | L7Days | 16.4% | 9.4% |
| Astros | Road | 26.0% | 7.8% | RH | 20.9% | 8.6% | L7Days | 21.5% | 5.3% |
| Phillies | Home | 20.9% | 10.2% | RH | 24.1% | 10.1% | L7Days | 23.4% | 5.9% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | Rangers | L2 Years | 39.3% | 17.5% | 21.7% | 2017 | 80.0% | 40.0% | 80.0% | Road | 39.0% | 16.5% | 18.7% | L14 Days | 80.0% | 40.0% | 80.0% |
| Amir Garrett | Reds | L2 Years | 20.0% | 0.0% | 6.7% | 2017 | 20.0% | 0.0% | 6.7% | Road | 20.0% | 0.0% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 0.0% | 6.7% |
| Andrew Triggs | Athletics | L2 Years | 26.7% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 2017 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 20.0% | Road | 26.1% | 17.4% | 3.3% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Blake Snell | Rays | L2 Years | 31.1% | 6.1% | 9.6% | 2017 | 27.8% | 11.1% | 16.7% | Road | 31.6% | 7.9% | 16.7% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 11.1% | 16.7% |
| Brandon McCarthy | Dodgers | L2 Years | 38.0% | 15.9% | 18.4% | 2017 | 33.3% | 14.3% | 16.6% | Road | 31.7% | 0.0% | 12.2% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 14.3% | 16.6% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Years | 32.1% | 13.0% | 16.7% | 2017 | 47.1% | 12.5% | 23.6% | Road | 37.1% | 17.0% | 21.2% | L14 Days | 47.1% | 12.5% | 23.6% |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | L2 Years | 31.0% | 12.8% | 14.8% | 2017 | 36.4% | 50.0% | 27.3% | Home | 35.8% | 13.6% | 24.1% | L14 Days | 36.4% | 50.0% | 27.3% |
| Derek Holland | White Sox | L2 Years | 33.1% | 11.9% | 17.5% | 2017 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 22.2% | Road | 32.1% | 13.1% | 12.2% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 22.2% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Years | 33.8% | 14.8% | 15.4% | 2017 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 30.0% | Home | 31.6% | 14.8% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 0.0% | 30.0% |
| Jaime Garcia | Braves | L2 Years | 29.7% | 14.8% | 10.1% | 2017 | 39.1% | 10.0% | 21.7% | Road | 31.0% | 13.8% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 39.1% | 10.0% | 21.7% |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | L2 Years | 32.7% | 13.0% | 14.1% | 2017 | 31.6% | 0.0% | 15.8% | Home | 27.8% | 8.9% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 31.6% | 0.0% | 15.8% |
| Jesse Chavez | Angels | L2 Years | 30.9% | 12.2% | 13.1% | 2017 | 13.3% | 0.0% | 13.3% | Home | 28.3% | 16.4% | 11.6% | L14 Days | 13.3% | 0.0% | 13.3% |
| John Lackey | Cubs | L2 Years | 31.5% | 10.8% | 14.5% | 2017 | 23.5% | 0.0% | 11.7% | Home | 32.2% | 11.1% | 13.2% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 0.0% | 11.7% |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | L2 Years | 37.5% | 0.0% | 18.7% | 2017 | 37.5% | 0.0% | 18.7% | Home | 37.5% | 0.0% | 18.7% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 0.0% | 18.7% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | L2 Years | 29.5% | 13.4% | 11.5% | 2017 | 42.9% | 50.0% | 28.6% | Road | 31.5% | 12.8% | 14.5% | L14 Days | 42.9% | 50.0% | 28.6% |
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | L2 Years | 33.7% | 22.0% | 17.4% | 2017 | 26.3% | 33.3% | 21.0% | Road | 33.6% | 23.6% | 18.7% | L14 Days | 26.3% | 33.3% | 21.0% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 31.0% | 16.2% | 12.2% | 2017 | 47.1% | 0.0% | 35.3% | Home | 33.2% | 12.7% | 15.7% | L14 Days | 47.1% | 0.0% | 35.3% |
| Matt Cain | Giants | L2 Years | 32.9% | 15.4% | 13.1% | 2017 | 16.7% | 28.6% | 0.0% | Home | 27.9% | 14.3% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 28.6% | 0.0% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 28.9% | 11.3% | 7.4% | 2017 | 12.5% | 0.0% | -12.5% | Home | 27.2% | 10.2% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 0.0% | -12.5% |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | L2 Years | 30.4% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 2017 | 29.4% | 0.0% | 5.9% | Home | 31.1% | 9.2% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 0.0% | 5.9% |
| Mike Fiers | Astros | L2 Years | 33.8% | 13.1% | 15.3% | 2017 | 15.8% | 20.0% | -5.3% | Road | 33.3% | 16.5% | 17.2% | L14 Days | 15.8% | 20.0% | -5.3% |
| Mike Leake | Cardinals | L2 Years | 29.3% | 13.5% | 12.3% | 2017 | 9.1% | 0.0% | -9.1% | Road | 35.1% | 10.3% | 19.7% | L14 Days | 9.1% | 0.0% | -9.1% |
| Mike Montgomery | Yankees | L2 Years | 26.4% | 13.7% | 10.3% | 2017 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 12.5% | Home | 26.7% | 16.0% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | 12.5% |
| Shelby Miller | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 30.3% | 8.6% | 11.5% | 2017 | 53.3% | 20.0% | 53.3% | Road | 32.5% | 7.1% | 14.4% | L14 Days | 53.3% | 20.0% | 53.3% |
| Steven Wright | Red Sox | L2 Years | 30.9% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 2017 | 63.2% | 25.0% | 52.7% | Home | 27.1% | 9.6% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 63.2% | 25.0% | 52.7% |
| Tom Koehler | Marlins | L2 Years | 31.3% | 11.5% | 12.6% | 2017 | 14.3% | 16.7% | -14.3% | Home | 30.5% | 15.0% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 16.7% | -14.3% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | L2 Years | 28.8% | 12.5% | 9.6% | 2017 | 35.7% | 33.3% | 7.1% | Road | 28.9% | 8.0% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 35.7% | 33.3% | 7.1% |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | L2 Years | 31.2% | 13.1% | 13.2% | 2017 | 42.9% | 66.7% | 42.9% | Home | 32.3% | 17.6% | 16.8% | L14 Days | 42.9% | 66.7% | 42.9% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Mariners | L2 Years | 26.2% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 2017 | 15.8% | 20.0% | -15.8% | Home | 24.5% | 11.5% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 15.8% | 20.0% | -15.8% |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | L2 Years | 28.6% | 20.0% | -7.1% | 2017 | 28.6% | 20.0% | -7.1% | Road | L14 Days | 28.6% | 20.0% | -7.1% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angels | Home | 29.6% | 24.2% | 13.9% | RH | 27.5% | 18.8% | 12.5% | L7Days | 25.3% | 8.5% | 5.5% |
| Pirates | Home | 24.5% | 7.0% | 2.9% | LH | 21.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | L7Days | 27.2% | 15.2% | 10.1% |
| Royals | Home | 29.4% | 0.0% | 5.9% | RH | 29.2% | 20.0% | 5.3% | L7Days | 29.3% | 5.6% | 10.0% |
| Yankees | Home | 48.3% | 33.3% | 38.0% | LH | 25.0% | 0.0% | 5.0% | L7Days | 35.1% | 14.8% | 16.2% |
| Cubs | Home | 31.8% | 0.0% | 9.1% | RH | 28.6% | 7.1% | 7.9% | L7Days | 26.8% | 12.5% | 7.8% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 31.8% | 0.0% | 9.1% | RH | 34.0% | 5.0% | 12.4% | L7Days | 26.3% | 6.7% | 3.5% |
| White Sox | Road | 26.1% | 12.5% | 17.4% | RH | 29.8% | 10.2% | 11.6% | L7Days | 27.1% | 13.8% | 5.1% |
| Indians | Home | 30.0% | 12.5% | 5.0% | LH | 33.9% | 9.1% | 21.0% | L7Days | 33.8% | 6.3% | 14.1% |
| Reds | Road | 21.5% | 17.3% | -3.5% | RH | 24.3% | 11.9% | 3.3% | L7Days | 24.1% | 13.1% | 3.9% |
| Marlins | Home | 48.0% | 18.2% | 32.0% | LH | 19.1% | 9.1% | -4.7% | L7Days | 29.9% | 10.0% | 11.9% |
| Athletics | Road | 40.8% | 10.3% | 20.4% | RH | 37.3% | 14.0% | 16.6% | L7Days | 35.9% | 8.9% | 22.1% |
| Rangers | Road | 33.3% | 15.4% | 6.6% | RH | 38.8% | 20.0% | 24.1% | L7Days | 34.9% | 10.4% | 15.2% |
| Dodgers | Road | 30.0% | 6.9% | 10.0% | RH | 39.6% | 20.0% | 24.3% | L7Days | 28.5% | 6.7% | 8.9% |
| Padres | Road | 34.0% | 12.7% | 17.7% | RH | 31.4% | 15.8% | 12.4% | L7Days | 22.7% | 8.3% | 6.0% |
| Tigers | Home | 52.8% | 13.3% | 41.7% | RH | 45.2% | 8.8% | 33.3% | L7Days | 32.4% | 19.0% | 15.8% |
| Rockies | Home | 29.1% | 22.7% | 7.7% | RH | 27.0% | 15.4% | 6.2% | L7Days | 33.1% | 4.8% | 15.6% |
| Brewers | Road | 38.5% | 20.0% | 30.8% | RH | 39.1% | 22.0% | 19.1% | L7Days | 26.4% | 20.0% | 5.0% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 38.0% | 5.6% | 22.0% | RH | 37.2% | 13.7% | 25.6% | L7Days | 35.5% | 21.1% | 18.9% |
| Cardinals | Road | 27.1% | 13.0% | 11.8% | RH | 20.3% | 11.1% | -0.7% | L7Days | 29.1% | 14.5% | 13.2% |
| Twins | Road | 33.7% | 7.5% | 18.4% | RH | 34.5% | 5.6% | 19.0% | L7Days | 29.8% | 14.6% | 14.6% |
| Mariners | Home | 28.6% | 0.0% | 3.6% | RH | 21.4% | 6.5% | -0.5% | L7Days | 30.3% | 17.7% | 4.7% |
| Nationals | Home | 32.6% | 17.0% | 15.9% | RH | 31.8% | 15.8% | 16.1% | L7Days | 35.1% | 12.1% | 16.6% |
| Rays | Road | 17.7% | 14.3% | 0.0% | LH | 28.6% | 10.0% | -7.1% | L7Days | 30.9% | 4.7% | 8.9% |
| Giants | Home | 33.3% | 0.0% | 17.6% | RH | 29.9% | 8.7% | 14.9% | L7Days | 27.7% | 9.6% | 10.6% |
| Orioles | Road | 26.1% | 0.0% | 13.1% | RH | 25.3% | 8.1% | 6.6% | L7Days | 38.5% | 14.3% | 16.7% |
| Braves | Road | 27.5% | 9.2% | 8.8% | RH | 28.9% | 8.8% | 12.0% | L7Days | 29.2% | 15.7% | 7.7% |
| Red Sox | Home | 43.7% | 8.3% | 24.2% | RH | 47.0% | 3.7% | 27.8% | L7Days | 25.8% | 7.5% | 6.4% |
| Mets | Road | 36.7% | 25.7% | 25.0% | RH | 27.8% | 11.9% | 11.1% | L7Days | 31.5% | 9.8% | 8.8% |
| Astros | Road | 33.3% | 6.3% | 11.7% | RH | 26.6% | 20.6% | 0.0% | L7Days | 27.4% | 4.7% | 8.5% |
| Phillies | Home | 26.7% | 12.5% | 6.0% | RH | 26.0% | 14.3% | 5.3% | L7Days | 31.6% | 6.3% | 10.9% |
K/SwStr Chart (2016 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.5 SwStr% – 2.13 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | 23.5% | 6.7% | 3.51 | 23.5% | 6.7% | 3.51 |
| Amir Garrett | CIN | 19.1% | 7.7% | 2.48 | 19.1% | 7.7% | 2.48 |
| Andrew Triggs | OAK | 4.2% | 3.3% | 1.27 | 4.2% | 3.3% | 1.27 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 17.9% | 6.2% | 2.89 | 17.9% | 6.2% | 2.89 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 17.4% | 7.7% | 2.26 | 17.4% | 7.7% | 2.26 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 17.4% | 9.1% | 1.91 | 17.4% | 9.1% | 1.91 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 37.5% | 17.7% | 2.12 | 37.5% | 17.7% | 2.12 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 20.0% | 11.8% | 1.69 | 20.0% | 11.8% | 1.69 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 16.0% | 4.3% | 3.72 | 16.0% | 4.3% | 3.72 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | 0.0% | 4.7% | 0.00 | 0.0% | 4.7% | 0.00 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 8.0% | 6.3% | 1.27 | 8.0% | 6.3% | 1.27 |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | 27.3% | 13.5% | 2.02 | 27.3% | 13.5% | 2.02 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 26.9% | 12.2% | 2.20 | 26.9% | 12.2% | 2.20 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 25.0% | 7.4% | 3.38 | 25.0% | 7.4% | 3.38 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 23.8% | 12.4% | 1.92 | 23.8% | 12.4% | 1.92 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 13.0% | 4.8% | 2.71 | 13.0% | 4.8% | 2.71 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 20.8% | 9.0% | 2.31 | 20.8% | 9.0% | 2.31 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 12.5% | 7.1% | 1.76 | 12.5% | 7.1% | 1.76 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 28.0% | 13.3% | 2.11 | 28.0% | 13.3% | 2.11 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 16.7% | 8.4% | 1.99 | 16.7% | 8.4% | 1.99 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 11.5% | 14.4% | 0.80 | 11.5% | 14.4% | 0.80 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 20.7% | 7.6% | 2.72 | 20.7% | 7.6% | 2.72 |
| Mike Montgomery | NYY | 25.0% | 10.0% | 2.50 | 25.0% | 10.0% | 2.50 |
| Shelby Miller | ARI | 28.0% | 11.4% | 2.46 | 28.0% | 11.4% | 2.46 |
| Steven Wright | BOS | 14.8% | 4.3% | 3.44 | 14.8% | 4.3% | 3.44 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 19.1% | 9.9% | 1.93 | 19.1% | 9.9% | 1.93 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 25.0% | 8.5% | 2.94 | 25.0% | 8.5% | 2.94 |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | 50.0% | 18.1% | 2.76 | 50.0% | 18.1% | 2.76 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 16.0% | 10.0% | 1.60 | 16.0% | 10.0% | 1.60 |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | 21.1% | 6.3% | 3.35 | 21.1% | 6.3% | 3.35 |
Around one-third of today’s pitchers generated a strikeout rate beyond what their SwStr% projected in their first start.
ERA Estimators Chart (2016 LG AVG – 4.34 ERA – 4.30 SIERA – 4.24 xFIP – 4.30 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | 10.8 | 4.19 | -6.61 | 5.62 | -5.18 | 11.07 | 0.27 | 6.04 | -4.76 | 10.8 | 4.21 | -6.59 | 5.62 | -5.18 | 11.07 | 0.27 |
| Amir Garrett | CIN | 0 | 4.45 | 4.45 | 4.46 | 4.46 | 2.63 | 2.63 | 0 | 4.45 | 4.45 | 4.46 | 4.46 | 2.63 | 2.63 | ||
| Andrew Triggs | OAK | 0 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.14 | 6.14 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 3.22 | 3.22 | 0 | 6.53 | 6.53 | 6.14 | 6.14 | 4.2 | 4.2 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 5.4 | 6.03 | 0.63 | 5.83 | 0.43 | 5.67 | 0.27 | 4.56 | -0.84 | 5.4 | 6.06 | 0.66 | 5.83 | 0.43 | 5.67 | 0.27 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 3 | 3.94 | 0.94 | 3.96 | 0.96 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 4.60 | 1.60 | 3 | 3.94 | 0.94 | 3.96 | 0.96 | 4.3 | 1.3 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 1.5 | 4.55 | 3.05 | 4.72 | 3.22 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 5.50 | 4.00 | 1.5 | 4.55 | 3.05 | 4.72 | 3.22 | 4.8 | 3.3 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 6.35 | 3.23 | -3.12 | 2.46 | -3.89 | 4.2 | -2.15 | 3.53 | -2.82 | 6.35 | 3.26 | -3.09 | 2.46 | -3.89 | 4.2 | -2.15 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 3 | 3.59 | 0.59 | 4.13 | 1.13 | 2.3 | -0.7 | 5.13 | 2.13 | 3 | 3.59 | 0.59 | 4.13 | 1.13 | 2.3 | -0.7 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 0 | 3.65 | 3.65 | 3.96 | 3.96 | 2.13 | 2.13 | 3.96 | 3.96 | 0 | 3.65 | 3.65 | 3.96 | 3.96 | 2.13 | 2.13 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | 6 | 6.91 | 0.91 | 6.58 | 0.58 | 6.13 | 0.13 | 4.50 | -1.50 | 6 | 6.91 | 0.91 | 6.58 | 0.58 | 6.13 | 0.13 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 5.4 | 7.08 | 1.68 | 7.7 | 2.3 | 4.57 | -0.83 | 4.78 | -0.62 | 5.4 | 7.08 | 1.68 | 7.7 | 2.3 | 4.57 | -0.83 |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | 1.59 | 2.89 | 1.3 | 3.04 | 1.45 | 1.38 | -0.21 | 4.01 | 2.42 | 1.59 | 2.92 | 1.33 | 3.04 | 1.45 | 1.38 | -0.21 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 4.5 | 2.98 | -1.52 | 2.94 | -1.56 | 1.63 | -2.87 | 3.72 | -0.78 | 4.5 | 2.98 | -1.52 | 2.94 | -1.56 | 1.63 | -2.87 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 1.5 | 2.72 | 1.22 | 2.49 | 0.99 | 1.97 | 0.47 | 1.5 | 2.72 | 1.22 | 2.49 | 0.99 | 1.97 | 0.47 | ||
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 5.4 | 3.56 | -1.84 | 3.42 | -1.98 | 7.37 | 1.97 | 5.05 | -0.35 | 5.4 | 3.56 | -1.84 | 3.42 | -1.98 | 7.37 | 1.97 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 8.44 | 2.94 | -5.5 | 3.29 | -5.15 | 4.84 | -3.6 | 5.19 | -3.25 | 8.44 | 2.95 | -5.49 | 3.29 | -5.15 | 4.84 | -3.6 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 1.42 | 2.94 | 1.52 | 2.58 | 1.16 | 2.34 | 0.92 | 3.75 | 2.33 | 1.42 | 2.95 | 1.53 | 2.58 | 1.16 | 2.34 | 0.92 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 8.31 | 5.51 | -2.8 | 6.19 | -2.12 | 9.66 | 1.35 | 5.52 | -2.79 | 8.31 | 5.53 | -2.78 | 6.19 | -2.12 | 9.66 | 1.35 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 2.7 | 3.37 | 0.67 | 3.88 | 1.18 | 1.77 | -0.93 | 2.81 | 0.11 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 3.88 | 1.18 | 1.77 | -0.93 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 0 | 4.48 | 4.48 | 4.96 | 4.96 | 3.13 | 3.13 | 3.42 | 3.42 | 0 | 4.48 | 4.48 | 4.96 | 4.96 | 3.13 | 3.13 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 1.5 | 5.05 | 3.55 | 4.77 | 3.27 | 5.63 | 4.13 | 5.14 | 3.64 | 1.5 | 5.05 | 3.55 | 4.77 | 3.27 | 5.63 | 4.13 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 1.13 | 3.35 | 2.22 | 3.21 | 2.08 | 1.84 | 0.71 | 4.23 | 3.10 | 1.13 | 3.35 | 2.22 | 3.21 | 2.08 | 1.84 | 0.71 |
| Mike Montgomery | NYY | 6 | 4.82 | -1.18 | 6.91 | 0.91 | 4.3 | -1.7 | 3.54 | -2.46 | 6 | 4.82 | -1.18 | 6.91 | 0.91 | 4.3 | -1.7 |
| Shelby Miller | ARI | 5.06 | 3.54 | -1.52 | 3.5 | -1.56 | 4.47 | -0.59 | 6.61 | 1.55 | 5.06 | 3.55 | -1.51 | 3.5 | -1.56 | 4.47 | -0.59 |
| Steven Wright | BOS | 5.4 | 4.69 | -0.71 | 4.51 | -0.89 | 5.52 | 0.12 | 3.99 | -1.41 | 5.4 | 4.72 | -0.68 | 4.51 | -0.89 | 5.52 | 0.12 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 1.8 | 5.03 | 3.23 | 5.05 | 3.25 | 5.77 | 3.97 | 4.73 | 2.93 | 1.8 | 5.03 | 3.23 | 5.05 | 3.25 | 5.77 | 3.97 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 10.38 | 3.22 | -7.16 | 3.52 | -6.86 | 7.35 | -3.03 | 4.89 | -5.49 | 10.38 | 3.23 | -7.15 | 3.52 | -6.86 | 7.35 | -3.03 |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | 9 | 2.03 | -6.97 | 1.39 | -7.61 | 6.72 | -2.28 | 4.33 | -4.67 | 9 | 2.03 | -6.97 | 1.39 | -7.61 | 6.72 | -2.28 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 5.4 | 4.32 | -1.08 | 4.13 | -1.27 | 5.17 | -0.23 | 5.79 | 0.39 | 5.4 | 4.32 | -1.08 | 4.13 | -1.27 | 5.17 | -0.23 |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | 11.25 | 3.43 | -7.82 | 3.68 | -7.57 | 4.97 | -6.28 | 11.25 | 3.43 | -7.82 | 3.68 | -7.57 | 4.97 | -6.28 |
Nearly half of today’s pitchers had a DRA above five last season.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2016 LG AVG – .298 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.9 LD% – 9.5 IFFB% – 87.2 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | 0.286 | 0.250 | -0.036 | 30.0% | 0.2 | 0.0% | 90.9% | 90.1 | 9.10% | 5.50% | 308 |
| Amir Garrett | CIN | 0.244 | 0.133 | -0.111 | 33.3% | 0.2 | 0.0% | 95.7% | ||||
| Andrew Triggs | OAK | 0.265 | 0.200 | -0.065 | 50.0% | 0.15 | 0.0% | 95.0% | 90.2 | 4.60% | 2.90% | 151 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 0.237 | 0.118 | -0.119 | 17.6% | 0.294 | 11.1% | 95.5% | 88.2 | 2.70% | 1.50% | 219 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 0.256 | 0.176 | -0.08 | 38.9% | 0.222 | 0.0% | 94.1% | 88.6 | 1.30% | 0.60% | 80 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 0.314 | 0.125 | -0.189 | 40.0% | 0.067 | 25.0% | 89.3% | 88.6 | 9.10% | 5.60% | 396 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 0.331 | 0.400 | 0.069 | 60.0% | 0.2 | 50.0% | 75.9% | 91.9 | 7.00% | 3.90% | 329 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 0.222 | 0.222 | 0 | 38.9% | 0.222 | 0.0% | 93.1% | 88.8 | 7.10% | 4.80% | 309 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 0.302 | 0.300 | -0.002 | 42.1% | 0.211 | 14.3% | 100.0% | 91.3 | 6.80% | 4.40% | 438 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | 0.285 | 0.227 | -0.058 | 39.1% | 0.174 | 0.0% | 89.2% | 89.5 | 6.60% | 3.90% | 441 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 0.291 | 0.316 | 0.025 | 31.6% | 0.158 | 10.0% | 93.9% | 90.8 | 7.80% | 4.80% | 423 |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | 0.249 | 0.267 | 0.018 | 26.7% | 0.333 | 0.0% | 80.0% | 89.7 | 7.80% | 5.00% | 179 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 0.252 | 0.353 | 0.101 | 52.9% | 0.176 | 0.0% | 87.9% | 90.4 | 6.50% | 3.70% | 428 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 0.320 | 0.250 | -0.07 | 66.7% | 0.2 | 0.0% | 91.7% | ||||
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 0.205 | 0.250 | 0.045 | 50.0% | 0.214 | 0.0% | 85.7% | 89 | 6.30% | 4.10% | 431 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 0.238 | 0.333 | 0.095 | 68.4% | 0.158 | 0.0% | 93.9% | 90.4 | 5.90% | 3.80% | 427 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 0.314 | 0.353 | 0.039 | 62.5% | 0.313 | 0.0% | 86.4% | 91.1 | 5.30% | 3.50% | 561 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 0.300 | 0.250 | -0.05 | 47.1% | 0.118 | 14.3% | 93.1% | 89.8 | 8.00% | 4.80% | 238 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 0.319 | 0.250 | -0.069 | 25.0% | 0.188 | 22.2% | 90.3% | 87.7 | 6.80% | 3.70% | 484 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 0.287 | 0.235 | -0.052 | 41.2% | 0.176 | 0.0% | 84.0% | 89 | 6.40% | 3.90% | 391 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 0.256 | 0.211 | -0.045 | 57.9% | 0.158 | 20.0% | 80.7% | 90.6 | 7.00% | 4.70% | 486 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 0.315 | 0.273 | -0.042 | 40.9% | 0.273 | 0.0% | 91.4% | 89.6 | 6.70% | 4.60% | 524 |
| Mike Montgomery | NYY | 0.290 | 0.375 | 0.085 | 25.0% | 0.125 | 0.0% | 92.3% | 90.2 | 4.70% | 2.70% | 236 |
| Shelby Miller | ARI | 0.294 | 0.286 | -0.008 | 46.7% | 0.2 | 0.0% | 82.5% | 90.6 | 9.90% | 6.30% | 292 |
| Steven Wright | BOS | 0.277 | 0.333 | 0.056 | 47.4% | 0.316 | 0.0% | 91.3% | 87.4 | 3.20% | 2.00% | 404 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 0.277 | 0.231 | -0.046 | 35.7% | 0.214 | 16.7% | 90.9% | 88.3 | 7.20% | 4.50% | 486 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 0.356 | 0.417 | 0.061 | 28.6% | 0.286 | 16.7% | 81.8% | 89.3 | 5.80% | 3.30% | 361 |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | 0.321 | 0.600 | 0.279 | 28.6% | 0.286 | 0.0% | 66.7% | 89 | 8.90% | 4.70% | 292 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 0.307 | 0.389 | 0.082 | 42.1% | 0.316 | 20.0% | 81.5% | 89.6 | 4.80% | 3.00% | 332 |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | 0.302 | 0.385 | 0.083 | 50.0% | 0.143 | 0.0% | 93.6% |
Not many batters put the ball in play against Velasquez, but three of the six who did wound up with hits. This is the obvious downside of striking out so many batters in your first start of the season. There’s not much to say after just one start.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Marcus Stroman (1) has a 60% career ground ball rate with a league average strikeout rate against RHBs, which puts him in an enviable spot against a strikeout prone Milwaukee offense with virtually all of their power coming from the right side.
Value Tier Two
Jesse Chavez is affordable, even cheap on FD, and in a decent spot tonight. In his few seasons as a starter, he’s come out of the gate strong in April with this season being no different.
Value Tier Three
Vincent Velasquez (2) is boom or bust most likely. He could easily be the night’s top pitcher or he could drop a negative score on you. It’s a little bit risky as one of the highest costing pitchers tonight.
Andrew Triggs had a rough first outing against a contact prone offense, but it was uncharacteristic of his past work. He’s cheap with some strikeout upside against a below average offense.
Shelby Miller is up a couple of dollars from his first start, but still a reasonable cost in a decent spot (park upgrade, strikeout potential downgrade) if we think he can return to being something of a league average pitcher. He showed some positive signs first time out, but remains a flawed pitcher.
Brandon McCarthy steps up in class tonight, but conditions should favor him (check the weather and wind direction later) at either a reasonable (DK) or low (FD) cost. I’d consider bumping him down a tier on DraftKings.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Tom Koehler costs just under $7K against the Braves. This was a lineup that was actually one of the better offenses in the league in the second half of last season, but is quite a bit less imposing without Matt Kemp in the middle of it. If he can keep the walks to a reasonable rate, he could generate enough strikeouts to play.
Ivan Nova probably isn’t going to win anyone a GPP tonight, but should be okay at home against a below average offense.
Amir Garrett is inexpensive and has the talent to exceed the low price tag in a favorable environment. The concern is the patience of the Pittsburgh lineup against a pitcher who has shown control issues coming up through the minors.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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