Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Friday, April 15th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bettis | COL | CHC | 139.2 | 5.09 | 4.18 | 1.53 | 17.7% | 8.3% | 0.97 | 1.69 | |
| Hendricks | CHC | COL | 260.1 | 3.49 | 3.57 | 1.14 | 20.2% | 5.5% | 0.73 | 1.74 | |
| Nelson | MIL | PIT | 246.2 | 4.34 | 3.99 | 1.33 | 19.3% | 7.9% | 0.88 | 1.66 | |
| Locke | PIT | MIL | 299.2 | 4.23 | 4.13 | 1.35 | 66.7% | 17.0% | 7.8% | 0.93 | 1.88 |
| Karns | SEA | NYY | 159 | 3.74 | 3.85 | 1.25 | 23.6% | 9.0% | 1.25 | 1.14 | |
| Severino | NYY | SEA | 62.1 | 2.89 | 3.84 | 1.20 | 22.0% | 8.6% | 1.30 | 1.69 | |
| Ross | WAS | PHI | 76.2 | 3.64 | 3.66 | 1.11 | 22.0% | 6.7% | 0.82 | 1.47 | |
| Hellickson | PHI | WAS | 209.2 | 4.59 | 4.11 | 1.36 | 19.1% | 7.0% | 1.29 | 1.07 | |
| Perez | ATL | MIA | 116.2 | 4.78 | 4.87 | 1.55 | 14.2% | 9.9% | 1.00 | 1.77 | |
| Chen | MIA | ATL | 377 | 3.44 | 3.91 | 1.22 | 31.6% | 18.5% | 4.9% | 1.22 | 1.06 |
| Sale | CWS | TBR | 382.2 | 2.85 | 2.54 | 1.03 | 64.3% | 31.3% | 5.3% | 0.85 | 1.10 |
| Odorizzi | TBR | CWS | 337.1 | 3.74 | 3.77 | 1.22 | 36.8% | 22.8% | 7.4% | 1.01 | 0.76 |
| Colon | NYM | CLE | 397 | 4.13 | 3.88 | 1.23 | 42.1% | 17.3% | 3.3% | 1.07 | 1.08 |
| Anderson | CLE | NYM | 91.1 | 3.05 | 4.89 | 1.11 | 12.1% | 6.6% | 0.89 | 1.37 | |
| Dickey | TOR | BOS | 430 | 3.81 | 4.41 | 1.21 | 47.6% | 16.6% | 7.5% | 1.07 | 1.12 |
| Porcello | BOS | TOR | 376.2 | 4.11 | 3.82 | 1.29 | 55.6% | 17.6% | 5.0% | 1.03 | 1.55 |
| Worley | BAL | TEX | 182.1 | 3.31 | 3.92 | 1.29 | 40.0% | 16.7% | 5.6% | 0.74 | 1.54 |
| Perez | TEX | BAL | 130 | 4.43 | 4.09 | 1.39 | 37.5% | 15.2% | 7.9% | 0.42 | 2.48 |
| Pelfrey | DET | HOU | 188.1 | 4.73 | 4.85 | 1.54 | 11.5% | 7.6% | 0.76 | 1.78 | |
| Keuchel | HOU | DET | 432 | 2.69 | 2.96 | 1.09 | 50.0% | 21.1% | 5.8% | 0.58 | 3.22 |
| Richards | LAA | MIN | 376 | 3.18 | 3.61 | 1.15 | 65.0% | 22.0% | 8.2% | 0.60 | 1.90 |
| Milone | MIN | LAA | 246.2 | 4.05 | 4.48 | 1.33 | 43.8% | 15.6% | 6.9% | 1.20 | 1.08 |
| Melville | CIN | STL | |||||||||
| Martinez | STL | CIN | 269 | 3.35 | 3.44 | 1.33 | 23.5% | 8.7% | 0.57 | 2.05 | |
| Volquez | KCR | OAK | 393 | 3.30 | 4.28 | 1.27 | 50.0% | 17.8% | 8.6% | 0.76 | 1.46 |
| Hill | OAK | KCR | 34.1 | 1.83 | 2.62 | 0.93 | 33.3% | 8.2% | 0.52 | 1.35 | |
| Bumgarner | SFG | LAD | 435.2 | 2.95 | 2.99 | 1.05 | 47.6% | 26.0% | 4.7% | 0.87 | 1.21 |
| Kershaw | LAD | SFG | 431 | 1.96 | 2.17 | 0.87 | 66.7% | 33.0% | 4.5% | 0.50 | 1.77 |
| Greinke | ARI | SDP | 425 | 2.16 | 3.07 | 0.99 | 50.0% | 24.5% | 5.0% | 0.70 | 1.57 |
| Shields | SDP | ARI | 429.1 | 3.54 | 3.64 | 1.25 | 42.9% | 22.0% | 7.0% | 1.17 | 1.32 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Clayton Kershaw LAD (vs. SF) – It doesn’t matter who he’s facing, one should never fade Kershaw. It doesn’t matter how many times you’ve seen the video of Bummer taking Kersh out of AT&T Park from last weekend, the Dodger ace is the best pitcher in the game, bar none. He had a 1.67 ERA at home last season and a 1.70 ERA the season prior, as if he needed any other advantage. Plug and play, that is if you can fit his salary onto the roster.
Chris Sale CHW (at TB) – It’s southpaw Friday, with left-handed servings of some of the top pitchers in the game, including Kershaw, Bumgarner and Chris Sale (I guess David Price missed the memo). Tampa is better stacked to handle left-handed pitchers in general, but Sale presents an added challenge for a Rays club that had the fourth-most strikeouts in the AL last season. His first two starts of the season were pedestrian by his standards, tossing 7.0 innings and allowing three runs in each turn, totaling a strikeout per frame. His weak opponent will get the sharks swimming, but it’s worth noting that his first two starts were against the modest offenses of the Indians and Athletics.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Madison Bumgarner SF (at LAD) – Bumgarner is the designated Kershaw neutralizer for the Giants (we’re up to six meetings in the last 12 months), a job held by Tim Lincecum back when he was winning Cy Young Awards. The velocity has been down for Bummer in his first two starts, a pattern that he exhibited last season but not to the extent that we’re seeing now (two mph less than his 2015 average). He is getting more movement on the pitch, as Bumgarner has natural cut to his fastball and easing off the gas pedal has the side effect of adding some movement. He was off-line in his first start, derailing his release point, but his delivery was back in line last weekend against the Dodgers, and I’m not too worried about his pitch command in the near future.
Zack Greinke ARI (at SD) – The Padres are the perfect cure for a pitcher who has felt under the weather and whose stat-line is enough to make anyone who rostered him sick to their stomach. The Friars are making everyone look good right now, morphing Vincent Velasquez and Jerad Eickhoff into the modern versions of Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee, and a trip to San Diego could be just what Greinke needs to get back on track. Petco didn’t play as a pitcher’s haven last year, in fact it was fairly neutral, but it remains to be seen how the park will play in 2016. Regardless, it won’t be the ballpark that forges Greinke toward a day of positive regression.
Carlos Martinez STL (vs. CIN) – CarMart was solid in his first start, allowing two runs with seven baserunners over 6.0 frames, with five strikeouts and three walks. The start wasn’t spectacular by any means, and in fact it loses luster when considering that Martinez got to face the Braves in his first turn of the year. He was excellent in spring and faces a Cincinnati club that has few threats in the lineup. If Martinez can keep Joey Votto at bay, then he should have a relatively easy path to victory.
Garrett Richards LAA (at MIN) – The Twins are the AL’s version of the Braves through the first two weeks of the season, with an identical 0-9 record and a similarly-pathetic offense, slashing .201/.277/.304 on the campaign and scoring just 1.6 runs per game. The game will be a breeze for Richards after fighting his way through games against the Cubs and Rangers.
Joe Ross WAS (at PHI) – Ross doesn’t have the heavy upside that we often associate with the Raise category or with young arms, but he brings a high floor that helps to counter the modest ceiling of strikeouts. He faces a Phillies club that is currently in the bottom third of the league in the slash categories and projects to stay in that realm throughout the season. Expect the run prevention to be there even if the strikeouts are not.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bettis | 0.394 | 8.49 | 0.374 | 5.48 | 0.242 | 0.694 | 0.329 | 4.14 | 0.283 | 0.00 | 17.7% |
| Hendricks | 0.261 | 2.41 | 0.265 | 3.62 | 0.284 | 0.772 | 0.287 | 3.34 | 0.24 | 87.76 | 20.2% |
| Nelson | 0.353 | 4.84 | 0.280 | 3.55 | 0.234 | 0.642 | 0.303 | 4.01 | 0.256 | 88.64 | 19.3% |
| Locke | 0.238 | 2.93 | 0.325 | 4.19 | 0.198 | 0.488 | 0.298 | 4.13 | 0.261 | 92.98 | 17.0% |
| Karns | 0.312 | 4.61 | 0.228 | 0.694 | 0.277 | 4.21 | 0.231 | 91.24 | 23.6% | ||
| Severino | 0.303 | 3.94 | 0.234 | 0.660 | 0.265 | 4.37 | 0.229 | 93.18 | 22.0% | ||
| Ross | 0.205 | 3.53 | 0.207 | 0.567 | 0.265 | 3.42 | 0.22 | 72.06 | 22.0% | ||
| Hellickson | 0.261 | 3.76 | 0.355 | 4.80 | 0.239 | 0.669 | 0.300 | 4.35 | 0.263 | 0.00 | 19.1% |
| Perez | 0.330 | 3.92 | 0.261 | 0.676 | 0.318 | 4.87 | 0.286 | 0.00 | 14.2% | ||
| Chen | 0.298 | 3.20 | 0.337 | 3.82 | 0.238 | 0.682 | 0.293 | 4.03 | 0.26 | 96.56 | 18.5% |
| Sale | 0.183 | 0.00 | 0.280 | 3.14 | 0.246 | 0.736 | 0.303 | 2.66 | 0.219 | 106.60 | 31.3% |
| Odorizzi | 0.294 | 4.15 | 0.324 | 3.94 | 0.256 | 0.679 | 0.283 | 3.68 | 0.234 | 98.02 | 22.8% |
| Colon | 0.299 | 4.10 | 0.325 | 4.47 | 0.247 | 0.701 | 0.307 | 3.70 | 0.272 | 89.33 | 17.3% |
| Anderson | 0.260 | 2.42 | 0.235 | 0.653 | 0.237 | 4.27 | 0.226 | 86.27 | 12.1% | ||
| Dickey | 0.300 | 2.97 | 0.324 | 4.32 | 0.257 | 0.714 | 0.260 | 4.40 | 0.236 | 101.15 | 16.6% |
| Porcello | 0.320 | 3.12 | 0.314 | 4.26 | 0.235 | 0.718 | 0.313 | 3.88 | 0.274 | 96.65 | 17.6% |
| Worley | 0.297 | 2.32 | 0.310 | 3.70 | 0.193 | 0.559 | 0.308 | 3.59 | 0.268 | 66.37 | 16.7% |
| Perez | 0.312 | 7.71 | 0.336 | 4.26 | 0.306 | 0.798 | 0.321 | 3.52 | 0.276 | 90.55 | 15.2% |
| Pelfrey | 0.294 | 4.41 | 0.342 | 4.61 | 0.244 | 0.747 | 0.328 | 4.45 | 0.3 | 0.00 | 11.5% |
| Keuchel | 0.268 | 2.61 | 0.283 | 2.71 | 0.273 | 0.777 | 0.282 | 3.05 | 0.231 | 105.03 | 21.1% |
| Richards | 0.237 | 2.78 | 0.284 | 3.32 | 0.231 | 0.623 | 0.269 | 3.30 | 0.217 | 101.33 | 22.0% |
| Milone | 0.323 | 3.86 | 0.335 | 4.14 | 0.252 | 0.754 | 0.284 | 4.49 | 0.26 | 86.78 | 15.6% |
| Melville | 0.279 | 0.762 | |||||||||
| Martinez | 0.363 | 5.65 | 0.275 | 2.76 | 0.224 | 0.691 | 0.323 | 3.20 | 0.25 | 47.99 | 23.5% |
| Volquez | 0.321 | 3.44 | 0.296 | 3.31 | 0.279 | 0.767 | 0.277 | 3.98 | 0.238 | 95.08 | 17.8% |
| Hill | 0.215 | 2.22 | 0.297 | 0.805 | 0.257 | 2.49 | 0.174 | 27.60 | 33.3% | ||
| Bumgarner | 0.239 | 1.84 | 0.286 | 3.15 | 0.239 | 0.651 | 0.289 | 2.96 | 0.228 | 102.83 | 26.0% |
| Kershaw | 0.215 | 0.96 | 0.232 | 1.99 | 0.254 | 0.682 | 0.279 | 1.91 | 0.194 | 101.90 | 33.0% |
| Greinke | 0.277 | 2.06 | 0.257 | 2.41 | 0.244 | 0.694 | 0.269 | 2.86 | 0.215 | 100.77 | 24.5% |
| Shields | 0.309 | 3.02 | 0.299 | 3.32 | 0.256 | 0.693 | 0.297 | 4.00 | 0.25 | 104.00 | 22.0% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Jake Odorizzi TB (vs. CHW) – Odorizzi provides the reverse negative profile of Ross, as a pitcher with a rickety floor but whose vaulted ceiling is supported by the possibility of high strikeout totals. He doesn’t throw all that hard, averaging 91 mph on his fastball, but that didn’t stop Odorizzi from striking out 10 Blue Jays in his first turn of the year. It was more Ks than he had in any game from the 2015 season, but he will be hard-pressed for a repeat performance against a White Sox lineup that has the third-fewest strikeouts in the American League.
Dallas Keuchel HOU (vs. DET) – Before we overreact to his first two starts, we should remember that Keuchel’s incredible performance from the second half of 2015 was atypical, even for him. He has developed by leaps and bounds over the past two seasons, and his discovery of a top-tier K rate in the last half of last season vaulted him to new heights in the eyes of the fantasy community. Keuchel isn’t off to the best start for 2016, and though we are all rooting for him to turn it around, I would wait until after the Tiger tornado has past on to another city.
James Shields SD (vs. ARI) – Everything got flipped on its head last season, such that Shields can no longer be trusted as a high floor, low ceiling starter and his home park can’t be counted on to buffer his numbers. Even without A.J. Pollock, the Diamondbacks have a few bats that can be destructive, led by Paul Goldschmidt and David Peralta. He acquitted himself ok in his last start considering that he was pitching in the pitcher’s hell of Colorado, as Shields escaped with four runs allowed over 6.0 innings, which is a minor miracle considering the pinball scores that have been posted in Denver so far this season.
Luis Severino NYY (vs. SEA) – The Tigers knocked him around in his first start of the season, lacing 10 hits in 5.0 innings of work, but the fact that only one of those knocks went for extra bases kept the run damage to a minimum. He averaged 95.5 mph in his first start of the year, showing midseason pitch speeds in April and thus opening up the possibility that there’s more in the tank. The key will be his slider, which was responsible for six of the 10 hits in his first outing, as opposing batters went 6-for-6 with a double in at-bats that ended on the slider. If he can’t bury the slide effectively, then he could be in for a long day.
Wei-Yin Chen MIA (vs. ATL) – The Atlanta offense has been simply brutal this season, as their nine-game losing streak has been fueled by a .196/.289/.269 slash line as a team, and they should present an easy solution to Chen’s small-sample ERA problem, which was inflated in an interleague reunion with the Tigers. The southpaw Chen gets added benefit of having the platoon advantage of the one bat in the Braves lineup that merits attention, taking the sting out of Freddie Freeman bat as the lefty swinger loses 114 points of slugging percentage when at the platoon disadvantage.
Rich Hill OAK (vs. KC) – This is the ultimate boom or bust game, and the Royals contact-laden offense will make it very difficult for Hill’s loopy breaker to coax another game of double-digit strikeouts, but he has a decent shot to finish with a quality start and a whiff-per-inning.
Jimmy Nelson MIL (at PIT)
Kyle Hendricks CHC (vs. COL)
Jeremy Hellickson PHI (vs. WAS)
Edinson Volquez KC (at OAK)
Nate Karns SEA (at NYY)
Bartolo Colon NYM (at CLE)
Martin Perez TEX (vs. BAL)
Jeff Locke PIT (vs. MIL)
Cody Anderson CLE (vs. NYM)
Tommy Milone MIN (vs. LAA)
Mike Pelfrey DET (at HOU)
Williams Perez ATL (at MIA)
Vance Worley BAL (at TEX)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Chad Bettis COL (at CHC) – He might be decent at sea level, but a day when he’s taking on the Cubs is not the time to find out.
R.A. Dickey TOR (at BOS) – Play him in a GPP if you’re looking to construct a zig lineup, but the unpredictability of Dickey and his knuckler will keep me away from rostering him in cash games, especially against a Boston offense that has solid bat-to-ball skills (currently sitting second in the AL in batting average).
Rick Porcello BOS (vs. TOR) – Somewhat the opposite of Dickey, Porcello has been relatively predictable… he just gets lit. The Toronto bats are starting to wake up, and Josh Donaldson has been making noise in the kitchen since the sun rose (he hit his fifth home run of the young season yesterday).
Tim Melville CIN (at STL) – Check out his stats in the minors: 668.2 innings of a 4.75 ERA, with 7.3 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9. He might not escape the third inning.