MLB GPP Plays: Friday, July 24th
GPPs are very different from your cash games and you use a different strategy with them. In our GPPs we are not interested in safe plays, since GPPs are all about UPSIDE. We want players who can explode, as all-or-nothing type players can become GPP gold, and your value players are just as important as your star players. You need your players to have huge nights in order to take down these big tournaments.
My goal is to provide players who will be under-owned and/or have that big game upside you are looking for. I will also try to find as much value as I possibly can. Now, let’s get to the MLB GPP plays!
STARTING PITCHERS
Chris Archer, Tampa Bay Rays – Archer has scuffled a bit of late, but he is in a great spot to bounce back with a gem tonight at the Trop. Archer has been excellent at home this season (.207 BAA, 84 Ks in 69 IP) and he faces a Baltimore Orioles team that strikes out at a 24% clip versus right-handed pitching. With so many aces on the mound today, I expect Archer to fly under the radar and he has the upside to top them all.
With a game at Coors Field tonight, you may want to consider some value arms in order to load up there. Let’s talk about a few pitchers I am looking at in the mid-lower price tier. Andrew Cashner has the strikeout upside we require in our GPPs and he faces a Miami Marlins team that resembles a Triple-A squad. Cashner has 52 punch-outs in 42.1 innings pitched at Petco Park this season and opponents are only hitting .136 off of him in July. Chris Tillman looked great in his last start (8 IP, 0 ER, 8 Ks) and the Rays are one of the worst offenses in the American League, striking out more than any other team not named the Houston Astros. Tim Cooney has been solid for the St. Louis Cardinals, striking out a batter per inning so far in his young career. The Atlanta Braves struggles against southpaws (.296 wOBA, 21% strikeout rate) and I think we can pick on them again tonight.
Other Pitchers to Target – Max Scherzer, Corey Kluber, Felix Hernandez, Michael Pineda
CATCHER
Brian McCann, New York Yankees – McCann has been very good versus right-handed pitching this season, especially in the power department with nine doubles, 11 home runs and 41 runs batted in. Phil Hughes has been a very hittable pitcher in 2015 and he has already given up a whopping 23 long-balls. With this game being played at Target Field and not Yankees Stadium, McCann may not be that popular in tournaments.
Brayan Pena, Cincinnati Reds – Pena has finally shown some signs of offensive life with four hits in his last two games. Rockies starting pitcher Eddie Butler is bad, I mean really bad. Butler owns a 6.41 earned run average and a .378 batting average against at home this season. Pena gives us some cheap exposure to an offense that will pile up some runs tonight.
Other Catchers to Target – Coors Field, Jonathan Lucroy, Alex Avila, Jason Castro
FIRST BASE
David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox – Everyone is hitting Justin Verlander these days, as evident by his ratios (6.62 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, .289 BAA). Big Papi has had plenty of success against Verlander over the years (10-for-27, .370 BA, .433 OBP with four doubles and two bombs) and I think he takes him deep in this one.
Jose Abreu, Chicago White Sox – With his matchup against ace Corey Kluber, I don’t expect Jose Abreu to be highly owned this evening. However, Abreu can certainly take any pitcher deep and he has actually hit Kluber very well in his career (9-for-25, .360 BA, two doubles, two homers and six RBIs). It is a roll of the dice, but at his salary across the industry, it may just pay off.
Other First Basemen to Target – Joey Votto, Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Ben Paulsen
SECOND BASE
Rougned Odor, Texas Rangers – Odor has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball over the past month, carving up right-handed pitching along the way. Los Angeles Angels starter Nick Tropeano has been abused by lefties at both Triple-A and the Major leagues and that should continue tonight.
Robinson Cano, Seattle Mariners – Cano has hits in four consecutive games, including three multi-hit performances. He has been ripping it up in the month of July with a .347 batting average and 10 extra base hits. Drew Hutchison has been awful on the road the road this year (8.81 ERA, .371 BAA) and I expect Cano to roll out another multi-hit game tonight.
Other Second Basemen to Target – Ian Kinsler, DJ LeMahieu, Brandon Phillips
THIRD BASE
Kyle Seager, Seattle Mariners – With three consecutive two hit games, and six multi-hit games in his past nine contests, it is safe to sat Seager is dialed in at the dish. Seager is at his best when facing a righty at home, and we already talked about Hutchison’s road issues. Seager’s price has yet to catch up to his recent production and we should be taking advantage of that tonight.
Luis Valbuena, Houston Astros – The term “boom-or-bust” was made for hitters like Luis Valbuena. He has a batting average barely over the Mendoza line (.203 BA), but has very good power numbers on the season (10 doubles, 19 homers and 40 runs batted in). Jeremy Guthrie is a fly ball, homer-prone pitcher and he has been a disaster against lefties throughout his career.
Other Third Basemen to Target – Justin Turner, Evan Longoria, Chase Headley
SHORTSTOP
I think you either pay up for Troy Tulowitzki tonight or you look for salary relief at shortstop. Tulo clearly has the most upside at this thin position, but it will be hard to roster him and an ace in your rosters. If you are looking at a mid-tier option, Jhonny Peralta stands out to me in his matchup at home against lefty Manny Banuelos. Also, Xander Bogaerts should see plenty of RBI opportunities in Fenway Park tonight against Justin Verlander.
Mike Aviles, Cleveland Indians – When the Cleveland Indians face a lefty, Mike Aviles usually finds his way into the lineup. Aviles is cheap and he has been a very productive hitter against southpaws over the years. As a bonus, he has great BvP numbers (.435 BA in 23 ABs) versus Jose Quintana.
Other Shortstops to Target – Ian Desmond, Erick Aybar, Brad Miller
OUTFIELD
Charlie Blackmon, Colorado Rockies – I know the Rockies bats are obvious plays tonight, which is why I tend to avoid writing them up in my GPP articles. However, Blackmon is the guy I will have the most exposure to in this game. Blackmon is a beast when hitting in Coors Field against a righty and he can do plenty of damage with both his bat and his legs. Blackmon has jack-and-a-bag upside in this matchup.
Kole Calhoun, Los Angeles Angels – Calhoun has been lights out at the plate recently and he feasts on right-handed pitching. Colby Lewis has pitched pretty well this season and he is not a pitcher I look to stack against, but he stills has problems retiring lefties and Calhoun has smacked him around (.474 BA in 19 ABs), in a decent sample size.
David Peralta, Arizona Diamondbacks – Peralta has been cleared to return to action and I expect him to be hitting clean up tonight against Slippin’ Jimmy Nelson. Peralta does his best work versus right-handed pitching and Mr. Nelson has struggled mightily with lefties. Peralta contributes across the board offensively and he makes a great high upside play in your tournaments.
Other Outfielders to Target – Coors Field, Josh Hamilton, Khris Davis, Matt Joyce, Scott Van Slyke, Ryan Raburn, Seth Smith