NFL Grind Down: Week 3 - Page Two
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
| Cincinnati Bengals | Baltimore Ravens | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 1 p.m. | M&T Bank Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 44.5 | 21 | -2.5 | 44.5 | 23.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 28.5 | 6 | 17 | 4 | Offense | 23.0 | 16 | 12 | 21 | |
| Opp. Defense | 28.0 | 26 | 19 | 11 | Opp. Defense | 16.0 | 4 | 11 | 13 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Baltimore Ravens | 13 | 11 | 30 | 3 | Cincinnati Bengals | 6 | 29 | 7 | 4 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Green | 12 | 8 | 1 | 108 | Smith | 23 | 12 | 0 | 163 | |
| Jones | 8 | 4 | 1 | 70 | Aiken | 10 | 6 | 0 | 88 | |
| Sanu | 5 | 3 | 0 | 49 | Perriman | |||||
| Eifert | 17 | 13 | 3 | 153 | Gillmore | 10 | 7 | 2 | 111 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Lorenzo Taliaferro (BAL, Foot, Questionable), Breshad Perriman (BAL, Knee, Out)
CIN Matchup Rating: 5.0
BAL Matchup Rating: 4.0
Cincinnati Bengals
Quarterback: Andy Dalton (FD $7,100, DK $5,700) has had a pleasantly surprising start to his season, with five touchdowns and no interceptions through two games. But now he faces the Ravens, a team he really struggles against. Don’t believe in “player versus team?” (I can’t blame you, it’s a small sample and often contains irrelevant data.) Check out these numbers from Joe Goodberry, a Bengals writer who determined a strong split in Dalton’s performance. When facing opponents he hasn’t faced in the last year (not division rivals or teams he has played over the last season), his touchdown rate is quite high, his interception is pretty low, and he’s just more productive overall. But when facing division foes or teams he’s played in the recent past, every number falls off a cliff. If you had a gut feeling about Dalton not being able to handle pressure situations, or being easy to figure out, allow those numbers to be your justification. If you still feel good about Dalton, or want to capitalize on the general sentiment surrounding the Cincy quarterback, he is facing a defense that was torched by Derek Carr last weekend. I wouldn’t consider him in cash games, but he’s in play for tournaments if you’re buying into his hot start to the season.
Running Game: The Ravens have allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs since the start of last year, and rank sixth in DVOA against the run over that timeframe. Giovani Bernard (FD $7,200, DK $4,700) and Jeremy Hill (FD $7,600, DK $7,300) are in an unpredictable situation now that we’ve seen Hill get benched for fumbling, and their prices are a bit too high for this tough of a matchup. Bernard’s DraftKings salary is worth a glance, especially since he’s third on the team in targets, which makes him a tournament play on PPR sites where he’s priced at such a bargain.
Pass Catchers: Tyler Eifert (FD $5,900, DK $4,800) leads the Bengals in targets, catches, yards and touchdowns. He appears to be in the process of realizing his potential as a highly touted prospect coming out of college, and should only see his salary go up from here. He and A.J. Green (FD $8,000, DK $7,200) are the only Bengal passing game options I want to roster, and I prefer Eifert at a cheaper price and at a more scarce position.
The Takeaway: I don’t trust Andy Dalton in this matchup, and as such, I’m not high on the Bengals in general. The running backs face a tough matchup, and the pass catchers are dependent upon Dalton to have success. I’ll be fading apart from a random Eifert share here or there.
Baltimore Ravens
Quarterback: Last season, the Bengals were one of the toughest defenses to throw against, earning top marks in fantasy points against and DVOA. They held five different quarterbacks, including Joe Flacco (FD $8,100, DK $6,200), to under 200 yards with at least one interception and no touchdowns last year. To kick off this season, however, they’ve allowed two passing touchdowns per game, granted the touchdowns for Matt McGloin came in garbage time of a massive blowout. They have snagged an interception in each contest and limited yardage for opposing quarterbacks, all while generating pass rush, something they were unable to do last year. Joe Flacco doesn’t have the weapons or the recent track record to merit serious consideration on this weekend slate.
Running Game: Last weekend saw the realization of daily fantasy nightmares, as in a cupcake matchup, Justin Forsett (FD $7,200, DK $6,000) played reasonably well but was taken off the field in a goal-to-go situation and left with a depressing stat line to end the game against the Raiders. When inside the opponent’s 10 against the Raiders, Forsett had one carry for no yards, while Lorenzo Taliaferro (FD $5,600, DK $3,000) had one carry for seven yards and a touchdown. Taliaferro is hurt, and may not suit up against Cincinnati, which would be good news for Forsett in a pretty good matchup with the Bengals. Marvin Lewis’ team has allowed the third-most fantasy points to backs since the start of last season, and just last week, allowed Danny Woodhead and Melvin Gordon to combine for 124 yards rushing and 78 yards receiving on 30 touches. Forsett is a bit expensive and difficult to trust, but he certainly has upside against a poor run defense. Just don’t be shocked if you roster him only to see Javorius Allen (FD $5,300, DK $3,100) celebrating in the end zone.
Pass Catchers: Steve Smith (FD $7,100, DK $6,300) was leaned upon by Joe Flacco last week in a competitive game against the Raiders, and will likely be the focal point for the Ravens in the passing game again this week. He had more than twice as many targets as any other Baltimore player, and is by far the most talented, healthy pass catcher for this team. But he’ll face a tough matchup wherever he goes in the formation, as Adam Jones, Leon Hall and Dre Kirkpatrick are all capable corners for the Bengals. Of the three, Kirkpatrick is the weakest so far this season, but Smith moves all over the field and I’m not going to target him just because he might line up against a slightly below average corner a few times in a game. Crockett Gillmore (FD $5,400, DK $3,300) has a tough matchup with a team that Football Outsiders has as the second best tight end defense in the league since the start of last season, and is not someone I’ll be looking to roster with better options available (in this game with Eifert, and elsewhere).
The Takeaway: The Ravens are home favorites, but it’s hard to feel confident about their passing game against the Cincinnati defense. Justin Forsett is the best play on paper, but he’ll need to stay on the field in the red zone, or break off a big play, to avoid heartbreak for a second straight week. He’s a tournament option.
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots
| Jacksonville Jaguars | New England Patriots | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 1 p.m. | Gillette Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.5 | 47.5 | 17 | -13.5 | 47.5 | 30.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 16.0 | 30 | 21 | 17 | Offense | 34.0 | 2 | 1 | 28 | |
| Opp. Defense | 26.5 | 23 | 25 | 28 | Opp. Defense | 20.0 | 9 | 20 | 5 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| New England Patriots | 30 | 21 | 28 | 20 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 18 | 8 | 14 | 16 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Robinson | 18 | 7 | 2 | 182 | Edelman | 31 | 22 | 2 | 215 | |
| Hurns | 11 | 9 | 0 | 128 | Amendola | 5 | 3 | 0 | 56 | |
| Lee | 4 | 2 | 0 | 39 | Dobson | 9 | 8 | 0 | 96 | |
| Lewis | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Gronkowski | 21 | 12 | 4 | 207 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Rashad Greene (JAC, Thumb, Out), Julius Thomas (JAC, Hand, Doubtful), Denard Robinson (JAC, Knee, Out), Brandon LaFell (NEP, Foot, Out)
JAC Matchup Rating: 5.5
NE Matchup Rating: 8.0
Jacksonville Jaguars
Quarterback: The Patriots don’t have a standout defense in any one area, especially with the departure of Darrelle Revis. So while it doesn’t seem like a wise move to roster any Jacksonville players considering their status as two-touchdown underdogs on the road, there are reasons to select a Jaguar or two on your daily fantasy lineups. Blake Bortles (FD $6,700, DK $5,100) might not be my first choice, but his price on DraftKings is on par with the Saints’ backups, meaning he’s as close to “free” as you can get. The Pats allowed 350 yards and a touchdown to Big Ben in Week 1, and 242 yards, two touchdowns, and 43 rushing yards and a rushing score to Tyrod Taylor last week. And of the five quarterbacks to throw for 290 or more yards against the Pats last season, four saw their teams fall to New England by at least 14 points. Bortles will likely throw for 250-300 yards, and if you think the 17ish points the Jaguars will score will include two Blake Bortles passes and/or runs, he’s certainly worth a spot on one of your tournament lineups.
Running Game: The Patriots and Jaguars both play at a very high tempo, which will lead to plenty of plays in this game. That’s good for the passing game for Jacksonville, but they will almost certainly abandon anything resembling a running game really early in this one. T.J. Yeldon (FD $6,600, DK $4,400) does get targets in the passing game, but there are so many other running back options to choose from this week that I wouldn’t even think twice about rostering a Jaguar runner.
Pass Catchers: That tempo I mentioned is great for Allen Robinson (FD $6,600, DK $5,200), who has the most targets on the team, and the player with the second most (Rashad Green) is out for a while due to injury. Those targets will get spread among the other receivers, but some of them will be added to Robinson’s plate, as he’s proven he deserves opportunities in this offense. He’s a boom-or-bust tournament option, but don’t be surprised if his ownership is fairly high, even in a tough matchup.
The Takeaway: There are going to be a ton of plays and a ton of points in this game, but unfortunately, many of them will be run and scored by New England players. Still, Bortles and Robinson are tournament options, although the secret may be out on Robinson after his two-touchdown breakout last week.
New England Patriots
Quarterback: During a four-week stretch last season (Weeks 6-9), Tom Brady (FD $8,700, DK $7,700) and the Patriots dished out four straight wins, three in blowout fashion, with Brady throwing for 16 touchdowns and one interception in those contests. We could be in the midst of a similar hot streak to start off the 2015 season, as Brady has seven touchdowns and zero interceptions in his first two starts this season, both New England wins. If he’s following the script from last season, this week will be a five touchdown, zero interception performance. I wouldn’t bet against it. Brady is in play in every contest, every format, every site.
Running Game: The Jaguars have a good run defense (13th in DVOA since the start of last year) that winds up giving up a ton of points to opposing backs since teams establish the run after they take a lead against Jacksonville. Teams ran the ball 499 times against Jacksonville last season, which was third-most in the league. The Patriots will likely get their fair share of rushing attempts in, the problem with this is that we have no idea who that will be. Dion Lewis (FD $6,700, DK $4,200) has dominated the running back touches so far this season, but he’s also fumbled a couple of times, which is concerning in New England. LeGarrette Blount (FD $5,900, DK $4,000) would be a great option if we had any confidence he’d get carries, and Brandon Bolden (FD $4,900, DK $3,000) is lurking around to take a few snaps as well. Lewis is the play here, but don’t be surprised if he leaves you (and likely 20% of the other contestants in your tournament) broken hearted on Monday evening as you wonder what could have been.
Pass Catchers: Jarvis Landry caught eight passes for 110 yards against the Jacksonville defense a week ago. This is good news Julian Edelman (FD $7,700, DK $7,000), who will do the same work in the same areas of the field against that same defense. He has 31 targets so far this season, by far the most on the Patriots, and he’ll see another ten or more this week, and will almost certainly provide a solid return on investment on PPR sites without even scoring a touchdown. You don’t have to worry about “not scoring a touchdown” if you just roster Rob Gronkowski (FD $8,400, DK $7,400) instead. He’s scoring a touchdown this weekend. Both Edelman and Gronk are cash game plays, and viable in tournaments, but expect high ownership.
The Takeaway: Stack up the Patriots passing game, and take a shot on a running back if you’re feeling risky. The New England defense should get a couple of turnovers out of the Jags, and represent a secondary option on a weekend with a clear cut top defense to select, which we’ll address later.
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers
| New Orleans Saints | Carolina Panthers | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 1 p.m. | Bank of America Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 19.0 | 23 | 6 | 25 | Offense | 22.0 | 19 | 32 | 7 | |
| Opp. Defense | 13.0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | Opp. Defense | 28.5 | 27 | 18 | 24 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Carolina Panthers | 11 | 10 | 11 | 6 | New Orleans Saints | 27 | 22 | 12 | 19 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Colston | 12 | 7 | 0 | 98 | Brown | 7 | 5 | 1 | 70 | |
| Cooks | 15 | 9 | 0 | 111 | Ginn | 16 | 6 | 1 | 95 | |
| Coleman | 13 | 7 | 1 | 74 | Funchess | 6 | 2 | 0 | 24 | |
| Watson | 9 | 5 | 0 | 31 | Olsen | 17 | 7 | 0 | 81 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Brandin Cooks (NO, Ankle, Questionable), Drew Brees (NO, Shoulder, Out), Jerricho Cotchery (CAR, Ankle, Out)
NO Matchup Rating: 3.5
CAR Matchup Rating: 6.5
New Orleans Saints
Quarterback: The decline in talent and injury concerns for Drew Brees (FD $8,400, DK $7,500) are not baked into his current salary. He’s not worthy of consideration this weekend as a road underdog against a passing defense ranked fourth in DVOA since the start of last season, and that ranks 19th in points allowed to passers over that same span. Luke McCown (FD $5,200, DK $5,000) or Garrett Grayson (FD $4,800, DK $5,000) would be interesting punt options if either starts in Brees’ place, but there are appealing, more proven cheap QB options this weekend for not much more in salary.
Injury Update: Drew Brees is out. Luke McCown will start, but there are better, cheap options at quarterback. The Panthers defense is definitely in play with this news.
Running Game: With Luke Kuechly doubtful to suit up for the Panthers, and the questions about the health and talent in the passing game with Cooks and Brees banged up, the Saints running game presents an interesting situation to target. They’re road underdogs who bailed on the run in Week 1 in a similar situation, and then got a bit of a run game going Week 2 in a home loss to Tampa. The problem is, Mark Ingram (FD $7,900, DK $5,900) is priced too high for the role he’s held so far this year, and the playing time for Khiry Robinson (FD $4,900, DK $3,000) and C.J. Spiller (FD $6,000, DK $4,800) isn’t clear enough. Ingram’s role as a runner in the red zone makes him a tournament option, but a pretty weak one.
Pass Catchers: Brandin Cooks (FD $7,000, DK $7,100) is hurt, which might be a blessing in disguise considering the lackluster workload he was seeing over the first two weeks. If he’s out, Brandon Coleman (FD $5,100, DK $3,700) becomes a play based on opportunity alone, but he’ll likely see a decent amount of Carolina corner Josh Norman, which limits my optimism. Willie Snead (FD $4,700, DK $3,000) saw six targets against Tampa, more than Marques Colston (FD $5,300, DK $5,300) or any of the tight ends, but the target distribution was grouped together, and it is tough to find much value combined with opportunity here. I’m not overly interested in this passing offense against a talented Carolina pass defense.
Injury Update: With Brees out, the value of any potential Saints pass catcher is ruined. Avoid this situation.
The Takeaway: The Panthers are a tough matchup for the Saints, and daily fantasy appeal is already at an all-time low thanks to the various injuries, timeshares, and random volume assignments in this offense. I’ll pass on this unit altogether in my lineups this week.
Carolina Panthers
Quarterback: The Saints allowed Carson Palmer to throw for over 300 yards and three touchdowns in Week 1, and then gave up 200 yards and two total touchdowns to rookie Jameis Winston in Week 2. Combine this with a Football Outsiders DVOA against the pass that ranks 29th since the start of last season, and 31st over the first two games of this season, and you have a recipe for success for Cam Newton (FD $7,900, DK $6,800) and the Panthers. Newton has 24 of his team’s 68 rushing attempts this season, and has thrown 68 passes, giving him more opportunities for fantasy production than nearly every other player in football. Last season, the Saints allowed Newton to run for 126 yards on 19 carries and two touchdowns in two games, while he added 226 yards passing and a score in one of those contests. Newton will be able to run and throw with ease against the Saints, and is in line for a good fantasy outing. He’s a core play this weekend.
Running Game: Jonathan Stewart (FD $6,500, DK $4,900) has dominated the running back touches for Carolina, taking over as the lead back in an offense that was once one of the more frustrating timeshares in the NFL. He has responded with two extremely pedestrian performances, and has been upstaged by his quarterback in the running game. Inside the opponent’s 20 this season, Stewart has five carries for -2 yards, while Newton has four carries for ten yards and a touchdown. Stewart will continue to see carries, and eventually he’s going to produce value. A matchup with the Saints seems like a good spot for that breakout, as two teams with poor offensive lines (the Bucs and Cardinals) combined for 222 rushing yards from running backs over the first two weeks, with another 104 yards from backs in the passing game. Stewart is a secondary option in any format.
Pass Catchers: The most intriguing possibility among pass catchers in this game is the prospect of rostering Ted Ginn (FD $5,200, DK $3,300) and hoping for five catches for 50 yards and a punt return touchdown so you can double up the points by rostering the Carolina defense as well. Greg Olsen (FD $5,900, DK $4,800) is a tight end who sees plenty of targets (he and Ginn have 17 and 16 targets, respectively. No one else on the team has more than seven.), but there are better options at that position this weekend. Newton hasn’t been a particularly efficient passer this season, so I’ll pass on trying to pick a receiver to stack with him.
The Takeaway: Cam Newton and Jonathan Stewart are your top options here, along with the Carolina defense. The Panthers have three interceptions, three forced fumbles and six sacks on the season, and continuing those trends would produce a solid fantasy outing in Week 3.
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets
| Philadelphia Eagles | New York Jets | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 1 p.m. | MetLife Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 45.5 | 21.5 | -2.5 | 45.5 | 24 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 17.0 | 28 | 9 | 32 | Offense | 25.5 | 9 | 27 | 10 | |
| Opp. Defense | 8.5 | 1 | 17 | 14 | Opp. Defense | 23.0 | 15 | 23 | 17 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| New York Jets | 4 | 2 | 19 | 5 | Philadelphia Eagles | 13 | 13 | 26 | 9 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Matthews | 22 | 16 | 1 | 182 | Marshall | 19 | 13 | 2 | 163 | |
| Agholor | 8 | 4 | 0 | 36 | Decker | 14 | 10 | 2 | 134 | |
| Huff | 6 | 4 | 0 | 39 | Owusu | 9 | 4 | 0 | 55 | |
| Celek | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | Cumberland | |||||
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: DeMarco Murray (PHI, Hamstring, Questionable), Eric Decker (NYJ, Knee, Doubtful/Game-Time Decision), Chris Owusu (NYJ, Knee, Out), Chris Ivory (NYJ, Quad, Questionable/Game-Time Decision)
PHI Matchup Rating: 3.5
NYJ Matchup Rating: 6.5
Philadelphia Eagles
Quarterback: Everyone in the fantasy football community wanted to believe that Sam Bradford (FD $7,200, DK $6,300) was good. The quarterback under Chip Kelly seemed to be just a trivial detail in a well-oiled machine, capable of posting impressive fantasy scores with no effort at all. Even as the offense bled talent all offseason, the thought process surrounding Philly was that Kelly would find a way to make it work.
It’s not working, however, and Bradford’s early season popularity means there are plenty of daily fantasy players who feel burned by the Philly quarterback. He’s thrown 89 regular season passes so far, with a yards per attempt number below the league average, and twice as many interceptions as touchdowns. This week, he faces a Jets defense in their home stadium that has been among the best in coverage this season per Pro Football Focus, and that’s with Darrelle Revis graded as the sixth-best pass defender so far. Revis is hurt and may not go this week, but I’m not convinced that matters all that much. The Jets pressured Andrew Luck into a terrible game, and will likely do the same to Bradford this week. He’s only in play because he’ll likely throw 50+ times and may brute force his way to a decent fantasy score.
Running Game: If you take away the six carries from Darren Sproles (FD $5,400, DK $3,800), the Eagles have collectively rushed the ball 27 times for 24 yards. DeMarco Murray (FD $7,800, DK $6,600) has had no room to run, and even when he does have room, he doesn’t seem to be able to do anything with it. He’s hurt, as well, and may not play, further increasing the collective frustration with the ground game for the Eagles. The Jets were one of the toughest defenses a year ago against the run, and nothing has changed since then, allowing 46 rushing yards to running backs in Week 1 (Cleveland’s quarterbacks ran for 58, but that’s not a threat with Bradford under center), and 69 yards to backs in Week 2 (Andrew Luck and his 24 yards set aside here, as well). Avoid this situation altogether, except to take a flier on Sproles if Murray is out, as he’ll likely see more snaps and likely get a few targets in the passing game. He already has 13 targets, and Murray has 10, so we can expect some of those Murray targets to go to Sproles should DeMarco sit out. Ryan Mathews (FD $5,500, DK $3,300) would be the one getting carries behind the porous offensive line for Philly, and is of no interest even if Murray is out.
Pass Catchers: Sproles and Jordan Matthews (FD $7,100, DK $6,900) are the two most appealing options in this passing game, as both have caught a high number of their targets, and are favored by Bradford in the passing game. Zach Ertz (FD $5,200, DK $3,500) has seen lots of targets, too, but his 15 targets (second on the team) have turned into only six catches, a staggering level of inefficiency that doesn’t merit daily fantasy attention. Stick to Matthews if you’re chasing volume-based points in this passing game.
The Takeaway: It’s impossible to ignore the probability of another 50 throws from Sam Bradford, as the Eagles still have a very up-tempo offense, and the Jets have a decent tempo that won’t drag down the overall speed of this game. He and Matthews are possibilities in tournaments, but don’t expect it to be pretty.
New York Jets
Quarterback: Ryan Fitzpatrick (FD $6,800, DK $5,100) outplayed Andrew Luck on Monday Night, and while it wasn’t the most impressive display of quarterbacking we’ve ever seen, it was effective enough to lead New York to a win and get his main weapons involved in the offense. Fitzpatrick has been a personal favorite of mine for quite a long time, as he’s one of the more capable running quarterbacks in the league, passes well enough to earn fantasy points at a decent rate, and never seems to get a lot of attention or respect. He’ll face a Philadelphia defense in Week 3 that allowed Matt Ryan to throw for nearly 300 yards and two touchdowns in Week 1, and let Brandon Weeden throw seven passes, all complete, with a touchdown last week. Fitzpatrick is a bargain option in all formats against Football Outsiders’ 21st ranked defense against the pass so far this year.
Running Game: With uncertainty surrounding the injury status of Chris Ivory (FD $7,100, DK $5,000), we’re left to try to figure out how this game will set up for two different backs. If Ivory plays, he’ll likely be the lead back and be in for every running play, and will face a defense that has held opposing backs to a yards per carry under 3.2 so far this year, and has yet to allow a running back into the end zone. However, it is a defense that ranks 28th since the start of last year against running backs in the passing game, which makes Bilal Powell (FD $5,200, DK $3,000) an attractive option, and a core play if Ivory can’t suit up. Powell is a more versatile, well-rounded back than Ivory, and can get open in the passing game as well as carry the ball out of the backfield. He’s a tournament flier if Ivory plays, and a top option if Ivory does not.
Pass Catchers: Eric Decker is hurt. Chris Owusu is hurt. Devin Street doesn’t appear to be ready to step into a big role in the NFL. The Jets don’t have a tight end worth writing about. That leaves only two healthy, reasonable options in the passing game, and both should be on your radar this weekend. Brandon Marshall (FD $7,400, DK $6,200) is a fantastic value play, as he should be priced higher after his success on Monday night, and he’ll see an even bigger role with Decker and Owusu likely out. Quincy Enunwa (FD $4,500, DK $3,000) is the man most likely to step into the secondary role in the passing game with all the injuries, as he saw targets and snaps ahead of Jeremy Kerley. He’s worthy of a spot on a tournament roster or two.
The Takeaway: Brandon Marshall and Ryan Fitzpatrick are great point per dollar options this weekend, and Bilal Powell would be a top play if Chris Ivory is out. The Jets are home favorites and this game will feature a healthy amount of scoring, so don’t be shy despite New York’s reputation for being an offensive wasteland in recent years.