NHL Grind Down: Monday, December 5th
The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Buffalo Sabres at Washington Capitals
| Buffalo Sabres | Washington Capitals | ||||||||
 | Robin Lehner |  | Braden Holtby | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 9-10-5 | 13-7-3 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.00 | 2.46 | 22.50% | 77.20% | Team Stats | 2.52 | 2.22 | 14.50% | 82.40% |
Buffalo is finally healthy, but they may have already taken on too much damage to salvage their 2016-17 season as they’ll enter tonight’s game in last place of the Atlantic Division. They’ll head to our nation’s capital with the lowest implied goal total on the board this evening (1.98 projected goals) and that makes this somewhat difficult to comfortably target in cash games especially considering the fact that last season’s Vezina Trophy winner Braden Holtby will be between the pipes for the Capitals. The matchup is clearly not ideal, but Dan Bylsma does have a dangerous two-headed attack at his disposal. Kyle Okposo and Ryan O’Reilly are a dangerous duo on the top line and Bylsma will look to snap Zemgus Girgensons out of his funk by putting him on their wing. This leaves the talented duo of Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhart on the second line where they’ll be really needed to help provide consistent secondary scoring. With Washington having surrendered just 2.22 goals per game on the season, you likely don’t want to get too carried away here. On the blue-line, Rasmus Ristolainen is quickly becoming a household name. The former first-round pick has yet to find the back of the net this season (on 57 SOG) but has dished out 12 assists in 24 games and is a consistent source for blocked shots.
Washington has been struggling recently, but as huge favorites on a four-game slate, they’ll likely be rather popular selections this evening. After a shootout loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning on Saturday night, they’ve now dropped three straight games a find themselves sitting in fifth place in the Metropolitan Division. With that said, they defeated this Buffalo team just over a week ago and should snap out of their funk this evening. Alex Ovechkin receives all of the attention for good reason. He’s posted 12 goals and six assists in 23 games which is actually somewhat disappointing by his standards but has also unloaded the second most shots on goal in the NHL (94). It’s his linemate, Nicklas Backstrom that actually leads the club in points with 21 and he’s thrived on home ice where he’s picked up four goals and nine assists in 12 games at the Verizon Center. Marcus Johansson joins those three on the top line and that makes him a fine value play in all formats based on opportunity alone. Evgeny Kuznetsov has to be on the list of most disappointing starts to the season, but he racked up 77 points in 82 games last season and Barry Trotz is hoping he’ll gain a nice rapport with the talented Jakub Vrana. On defense, both John Carlson and Matt Niskanen have flashed plenty of offensive upside this season and both players see plenty of playing time on the point of the power-play. With Buffalo sporting a horrendous 77.2% penalty kill, you’ll want to grab some exposure to the Washington power-play.
Buffalo Sabres
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 49.05 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -6, 108.04 CP60
Elite Options
None
Secondary Options
Ryan O’Reilly ($6,100 FD, $6,100 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 58.42 CF60, 2.82 xGF60, 99.45 PDO
Jack Eichel ($6,500 FD, $7,200 DK)
Kyle Okposo ($6,300 FD, $6,100 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 55.1 CF60, 2.75 xGF60, 100.4 PDO
Rasmus Ristolainen ($5,000 FD, $5,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 52.86 CF60, 2.47 xGF60, 98.36 PDO
Expected Netminder
Robin Lehner – My Ratings (out of 10): 4.0 Cash, 5.5 GPP
Washington Capitals
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 52.68 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 12, 108.59 CP60
Elite Options
Alex Ovechkin ($8,800 FD, $8,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 58.08 CF60, 2.41 xGF60, 103.09 PDO
Nicklas Backstrom ($6,600 FD, $7,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 56.9 CF60, 2.57 xGF60, 102.67 PDO
John Carlson ($5,900 FD, $5,800 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 58.52 CF60, 2.56 xGF60, 102.21 PDO
Secondary Options
Evgeny Kuznetsov ($6,300 FD, $6,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 56.57 CF60, 2.25 xGF60, 105.06 PDO
Marcus Johansson ($4,900 FD, $5,200 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 55.49 CF60, 2.49 xGF60, 103.69 PDO
Matt Niskanen ($4,600 FD, $4,900 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 57.21 CF60, 2.43 xGF60, 101 PDO
Expected Netminder
Braden Holtby – My Ratings (out of 10): 9 Cash, 8.5 GPP
Florida Panthers at Boston Bruins
| Florida Panthers | Boston Bruins | ||||||||
 | Roberto Luongo |  | Tuukka Rask | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 12-11-2 | 14-10-1 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.32 | 2.44 | 13.60% | 84.40% | Team Stats | 2.28 | 2.16 | 14.30% | 85.90% |
The Panthers continue their tough six game road trip tonight with a trip to Beantown to battle the Boston Bruins. Florida was was rather lifeless in a 2-0 defeat against the Ottawa Senators on Saturday and it’s reasonable to be concerned about their motivation at this point after the popular (by the players at least) Gerard Gallant was inexplicably fired last week. Florida has failed to score more than two goals in any of their last six games but new coach Tom Rowe does still have some offensive talent to work with. It looks unlikely that leading scorer Jonathan Marchessault will be in the lineup this evening, but Florida still has two very capable scoring lines to throw over the boards. Aleksander Barkov and Jaromir Jagr combine forces on the top forward line and #1 power-play unit and are both fine options on this rather small slate thanks to the fact that Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand were tasked with slowing down the Jussi Jokinen, Vincent Trocheck and Reilly Smith line in their only previous meeting this season. That’s obviously bad news for Jokinen, Trocheck and Smith, but they’re still very much in the GPP mix. On defense, it’s Aaron Ekblad, Keith Yandle and Jason Demers that deserve your attention. All three players see plenty of run with the man advantage and been solid out of the gates this season. Just keep your expectations in check as the Bruins do own an impressive 85.9% penalty kill.
The Bruins haven’t been able to gain much traction yet this season, but they’ve played quite well in each of their last two games and find themselves looking for their third three-game winning streak of the season tonight. They defeated this Florida hockey club by a 2-1 margin in their only previous meeting this season and these two rivals figure to play another hard-fought and closely contested game this evening. This game does forecast to be one of the most fantasy friendly games of the evening, but Boston does enter as a solid -140 favorite by Vegas standards. Up-front, it’s the trio of Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak that will draw the most fantasy attention. Bergeron has been eerily quiet early on this season, but both Pastrnak and Marchand are putting up All-Star numbers. Marchand lit the lamp against the Panthers in that first meeting and will take the ice owning a team best 21 points in 25 games. Alternatively, David Krejci and David Backes (with Tim Schaller) provide Claude Julien with a very dangerous secondary scoring line. Backes and Krejci join Bergeron on the #1 power-play unit and that solidifies them as very intriguing GPP options. On defense, Zdeno Chara is expected to make his return to the lineup this evening. He’s not the same fantasy threat as he was in his prime, but he can still rip the puck well over 100 MPH and uses his monstrous frame to post solid shot blocking numbers. With that said, Torey Krug is the better offensive weapon. He’s dished out five assists over the last four games and is locked into very heavy minutes both at even strength and on the point of the #1 power-play unit.
Florida Panthers
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 51.84 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -10, 105.47 CP60
Elite Options
Aleksander Barkov ($6,500 FD, $5,900 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 59.09 CF60, 2.23 xGF60, 97.92 PDO
Secondary Options
Jaromir Jagr ($5,200 FD, $4,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 61.45 CF60, 2.58 xGF60, 98.95 PDO
Vincent Trocheck ($5,800 FD, $5,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 58.56 CF60, 2.37 xGF60, 94.44 PDO
Keith Yandle ($5,400 FD, $4,700 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 58.77 CF60, 2.32 xGF60, 99.97 PDO
Aaron Ekblad ($5,500 FD, $4,800 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 55.26 CF60, 2.01 xGF60, 94.65 PDO
Expected Netminder
Roberto luongo – My Ratings (out of 10): 6.5 Cash, 7 GPP
Boston Bruins
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 54.11 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 1, 112.02 CP60
Elite Options
Brad Marchand ($6,900 FD, $6,700 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 72.18 CF60, 2.93 xGF60, 101.36 PDO
Secondary Options
Patrice Bergeron ($6,600 FD, $6,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 68.38 CF60, 2.36 xGF60, 99.01 PDO
David Pastrnak ($6,300 FD, $7,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 73.37 CF60, 3.19 xGF60, 104.59 PDO
David Krejci ($5,900 FD, $6,200 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 60.8 CF60, 2.34 xGF60, 97.67 PDO
Torey Krug ($5,500 FD, $5,500 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 65.58 CF60, 2.43 xGF60, 97.51 PDO
Expected Netminder
Tuukka Rask – My Ratings (out of 10): 7 Cash, 7 GPP
Arizona Coyotes at Columbus Blue Jackets
| Arizona Coyotes | Columbus Blue Jackets | ||||||||
 | Mike Smith |  | Sergei Bobrovsky | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 8-11-4 | 14-5-4 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.35 | 3.09 | 14.10% | 81.90% | Team Stats | 3.13 | 2.22 | 23.80% | 82.50% |
Let’s no sugarcoat things; Arizona is the worst hockey team in the NHL. They own just an 8-11-4 record on the season, have dropped three straight games heading into tonight’s clash with Columbus and have allowed 3.09 goals against per game. It’s not easy to target them in cash games and while Columbus does not have a reputation as a strong defensive hockey club, they have allowed just 2.22 goals against per game this season. Oliver Ekman-Larsson is the face of this Arizona franchise and the piece they need to build the future around. He’s posted 12 points in 23 games this season and logs nearly 25 minutes of ice-time per game. OEL is a premier option on the blue-line on a nightly basis and is really the only Coyote i’d be fully comfortable on my cash game rosters. Up-front, Arizona does have two talented (yet inconsistent) scoring lines that make for fine GPP plays. Martin Hanzal centers Radim Vrbata and Tobias Rieder on one line with veteran Shane Doan skating alongside youngsters Max Domi and Christian Dvorak one another. It’s Vrbata that leads the charge with 17 points and his high shot volume makes him arguably the most intriguing option of those six forwards.
The Blue Jackets are quietly one of the hottest teams in the NHL right now and enter tonight’s game having won each of their last three games and owning an 8-1-2 record over their last eleven. They absolutely dominated the game (not the scoreboard) in their shootout victory in the opener of this home-and-home series on Saturday night where they unloaded 60 shots at Mike Smith. Up-front, Columbus has benefited from a very balanced scoring attack, and now already have four players who have reached the 20-point plateau. Brandon Saad, Alexander Wennberg and Nick Foligno are three of those four and that trio joins forces on Columbus’ top forward line. Cam Atkinson is the other 20+ point man and headlines the very dangerous and gritty second line alongside Brandon Dubinsky and Boone Jenner. With Arizona lacking any true “shut-down” defender types, both lines should see plenty of open ice in this matchup. On defense, rookie Zach Werenski looks like a Calder Trophy contender this season. He just won the NHL Rookie of the Month award for November and will enter tonight’s game owning five goals and 11 assists in 23 games this season. He and Seth Jones soak up nearly all of the available playing time on the point of the power-play, solidifying them both as very fine options in all formats this evening.
Arizona Coyotes
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 44.74 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -11, 119.21 CP60
Elite Options
Oliver Ekman-Larsson – 16-17 Metrics – 53.06 CF60, 2.1 xGF60, 100.44 PDO
Secondary Options
Radim Vrbata – 16-17 Metrics – 56.26 CF60, 2.31 xGF60, 98.54 PDO
Max Domi – 16-17 Metrics – 57.66 CF60, 2.29 xGF60, 99.5 PDO
Martin Hanzal – 16-17 Metrics – 53.58 CF60, 2.17 xGF60, 95.91 PDO
Expected Netminder
Louis Domingue – My Ratings (out of 10): 3.5 Cash, 6 GPP
Columbus Blue Jackets
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 50.64 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 12, 114.98 CP60
Elite Options
Brandon Saad ($6,600 FD, $6,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 62.82 CF60, 2.81 xGF60, 105.11 PDO
Nick Foligno ($6,200 FD, $5,800 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 60.35 CF60, 2.57 xGF60, 101.97 PDO
Alexander Wennberg ($5,700 FD, $5,700 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 58.08 CF60, 2.25 xGF60, 101.91 PDO
Cam Atkinson ($6,800 FD, $6,500 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 60.18 CF60, 2.54 xGF60, 100 PDO
Zach Werenski ($5,600 FD, $6,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 60.71 CF60, 2.5 xGF60, 99.89 PDO
Secondary Options
Boone Jenner ($4,900 FD, $5,100 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 62.9 CF60, 2.56 xGF60, 98.59 PDO
Brandon Dubinsky ($4,900 FD, $4,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 62.92 CF60, 2.76 xGF60, 101.56 PDO
Seth Jones ($5,000 FD, $4,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 60.58 CF60, 2.57 xGF60, 99.98 PDO
Expected Netminder
Sergei Bobrovsky – My Ratings (out of 10): 8.5 Cash, 8 GPP
Ottawa Senators at Pittsburgh Penguins
| Ottawa Senators | Pittsburgh Penguins | ||||||||
 | Craig Anderson |  | Marc-Andre Fleury | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 15-8-2 | 15-7-3 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.24 | 2.36 | 13.30% | 84.60% | Team Stats | 3.12 | 2.96 | 18.80% | 78.40% |
With a 2-0 shutout victory over the Florida Panthers over the weekend, the Senators pushed their record to 15-8-2 after 25 games and somewhat surprisingly find themselves sitting alone in second place of the Atlantic Division. Their impressive start will be put to the test over the next week as tonight marks the beginning of a very tough road trip that opens up in Pittsburgh. By little shock to anyone, Erik Karlsson will take the ice this evening leading the Senators with 20 points in 25 games. He’s averaging over 27 minutes of ice-time per game and also happens to lead the NHL in blocked shots, which gives him one of the highest floors in the league on a nightly basis. Up-front, Mike Hoffman is really heating up. The talented winger has picked up points in each of the last four games and now has four goals and three assists during that stretch. He’ll headline the top line between Derick Brassard and Mark Stone which leaves Kyle Turris to center Ryan Dzingel and Jean-Gabriel Pageau on a solid (and often overlooked) second line. Turris also has the luxury of playing alongside Stone and Hoffman on the #1 power-play unit which gives all three players a fantasy boost tonight as the Penguins limped to a 78.4% penalty kill on the young season. On defense, if you can’t afford Karlsson, both Dion Phaneuf and Cody Ceci also see a healthy dose of playing time with the man-advantage and do a fine job racking up the peripheral stats as well.
Pittsburgh struggled a bit early in the game against Detroit on Saturday, but eventually turned on the offense and coasted to a 5-3 victory. They’re starting to get back to full health now, with with 11 goals in their last two games, figure to be a fine team to target in DFS going forward. Tonight they’ll host an Ottawa team that has been playing surprisingly strong defense (thanks to spectacular goaltending) but slowing this offense down is a tough task for anyone. With all his weapons finally healthy, Mike Sullivan has the most dangerous two-headed offensive attack in the NHL. Sidney Crosby is the headliner and leads the team with 26 points in 25 games. He’ll by Patric Hornqvist and Conor Sheary on the top forward line where all three can be targeted with confidence. Evgeni Malkin looms as the center of the second forward line where he’s slated to be joined by Phil Kessel and Carl Hagelin. This is terrific news for Hagelin as the speedster has not seen much time alongside Crosby or Malkin lately. On defense, Kris Letang is a top-tier option on the blue-line. He’s picked up assists in each of the last two games and runs the show from the point of their lethal #1 power-play unit.
Ottawa Senators
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 47.94 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -5, 115.45 CP60
Elite Options
Erik Karlsson ($7,600 FD, $7,400 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 56.2 CF60, 2.53 xGF60, 100.39 PDO
Mike Hoffman ($6,700 FD, $6,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 55.51 CF60, 2.46 xGF60, 101.35 PDO
Secondary Options
Derick Brassard ($5,100 FD, $5,200 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 61.1 CF60, 2.77 xGF60, 100.15 PDO
Kyle Turris ($5,800 FD, $5,500 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 55.27 CF60, 2.44 xGF60, 100.72 PDO
Mark Stone ($6,500 FD, $5,400 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 61.38 CF60, 2.98 xGF60, 99.38 PDO
Dion Phaneuf ($4,200 FD, $4,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 56.04 CF60, 2.59 xGF60, 97.5 PDO
Expected Netminder
Craig Anderson – My Ratings (out of 10): 5 Cash, 6.0 GPP
Pittsburgh Penguins
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 51.96 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 8, 120.08 CP60
Elite Options
Sidney Crosby ($9,200 FD, $8,700 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 76.19 CF60, 3.99 xGF60, 98.93 PDO
Evgeni Malkin ($8,200 FD, $7,400 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 64.7 CF60, 3.06 xGF60, 101.9 PDO
Phil Kessel ($7,500 FD, $6,700 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 58.8 CF60, 2.38 xGF60, 103.86 PDO
Kris Letang ($7,300 FD, $7,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 64.41 CF60, 3.38 xGF60, 98.2 PDO
Secondary Options
Patric Hornqvist ($7,100 FD, $7,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 75.21 CF60, 4.53 xGF60, 99.76 PDO
Conor Sheary ($4,600 FD, $5,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 69.02 CF60, 3.88 xGF60, 102.68 PDO
Carl Hagelin ($4,700 FD, $4,500 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 62.7 CF60, 2.88 xGF60, 100.33 PDO
Justin Schultz ($3,600 FD, $3,700 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 63.86 CF60, 3.32 xGF60, 101.75 PDO
Expected Netminder
Marc-Andre Fleury – My Ratings (out of 10): 7 Cash, 7.5 GPP