NHL Grind Down: Wednesday, January 27th
The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
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Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning – 07:00 PM EST
| Toronto Maple Leafs | Tampa Bay Lightning | ||||||||
 | James Reimer |  | Andrei Vasilevskiy | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 17-20-9 | 26-18-4 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.37 | 2.67 | 16.10% | 80.80% | Team Stats | 2.65 | 2.38 | 18.20% | 80.70% |
The Maple Leafs were lit up by the Florida Panthers last night and won’t have much time to recover before squaring off against the Tampa Bay Lightning this evening. They’ve now dropped eight of their last nine games and it’s hard to get overly excited about them tonight against the defensively sound Lightning. Nazem Kadri scored his 10th goal of the season last night and his 168 iFenwick ranks him sixth in the league among players with 400+ minutes of ice-time. With goals in back-to-back games and a spot alongside the bruising Leo Komarov on the top line and #1 power-play unit, he has plenty of GPP appeal. Tampa Bay’s mediocre 80.7% penalty kill also gives a small fantasy boost to blue-liners Dion Phaneuf, Morgan Rielly and Jake Gardiner.
Well if the Stamkos to Toronto rumors weren’t loud enough before, a visit from the Maple Leafs to Tampa Bay will likely get fire them up once again as we head into the All-Star break. Stamkos finds himself tied with Nikita Kucherov for the team lead with 20 goals and has piled up 10 goals and 14 assists in 24 home games for the Lightning this season. The Toronto native headlines the top forward line alongside Vladislav Namestnikov and Ondrej Palat and will likely be a popular play against the free-falling Maple Leafs. Namestnikov has taken full advantage of his role on the top line and the former first-round pick has somewhat quietly racked up four goals and six assists over the last eight games. While that line deserves your attention, my favorite play here is Nikita Kucherov. He leads the Lightning with 41 points in 48 games and torched the Maple Leafs for a goal and an assist in their only other meeting. He’s picked up at least one point in 16 of the last 17 games and recorded a ridiculous 9 goals and 12 assists during that span. He’s centered by the speedy Tyler Johnson both at even strength and on the top power-play unit. On defense, both Victor Hedman and Anton Stralman log heavy minutes on the point of the power-play and will look to take advantage of the Maple Leafs potentially tired legs and middling 16th ranked penalty kill. Hedman has been red hot lately as well; posting two goals and eight assists over his last eight games.
Elite Options
TOR: None
TAM: Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov, Ondrej Palat, Victor Hedman
Secondary Options
TOR: Nazem Kadri, Leo Komarov, Joffrey Lupul, Dion Phaneuf (unless he’s suspended), Morgan Rielly
TAM: Vladislav Namestnikov, Tyler Johnson, Valtteri Filppula, Alex Killorn, Jonathan Marchessault, Anton Stralman
Philadelphia Flyers at Washington Capitals – 08:00 PM EST
| Philadelphia Flyers | Washington Capitals | ||||||||
 | Steve Mason |  | Braden Holtby | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 20-18-8 | 35-8-3 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.24 | 2.61 | 17.40% | 77.70% | Team Stats | 3.33 | 2.15 | 27.10% | 84.90% |
Just as I started to think the Flyers may actually push themselves right into the thick of the playoff hunt in the Eastern Confernence, they’ve now dropped three straight games and will finish up the first half of the season against the NHL leading Washington Capitals. While their top line of Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek and Wayne Simmonds is undoubtably threatening, Philly was man-handled by the Capitals in their only previous meeting and Washington has allowed an NHL low 2.15 goals against per game this season. That trio is too explosive to ignore in GPP’s, but they’re risky cash game options tonight even on a short four game slate. Brayden Schenn has seen his name thrown around in the rumor mill a bit lately and the former 5th overall pick has likely raised Philly’s asking price as he’s chipped in four goals and six assists in ten games this month. He joins the trio from the top line on the #1 power-play and is therefore an intriguing GPP play as well. On defense, Shayne Gostisbehere exploded onto the scene this year and has never looked back. The rookie blue-liner has tallied 8 goals and 12 assists in 28 games and seized the reigns as the point man on the Flyers’ top power-play unit. He’s picked up at least a point in each of the last three games and, thanks to a bargain asking price on most sites, is still a fine play despite the daunting matchup.
Winter Storm Jonas caused the postponement of each of Washington’s last two games, but the very well rested Capitals will put their 18-3-1 home record on the line against the visiting Philadelphia Flyers. Washington has averaged a league best 3.33 goals per game this season and cruised to an easy 5-2 win in their only prior meeting against Philadelphia. As usual, Alex Ovechkin is one of the premier plays of the evening. He’s scored goals in each of the last two games and his 228 SOG easily leads the all NHL skaters and with the Flyers owning an ugly 77.7% penalty kill, he’s a very dangerous fade in cash games tonight. He’ll be joined by Nicklas Backstrom and T.J. Oshie on both the top line and #1 power-play unit, which solidifies them as excellent plays as well. Somewhat surprisingly, Evgeny Kuznetsov leads the team with 15 goals and 33 assists in 46 games this season and has been white hot lately; racking up 4 goals and 11 assists over the last nine games. Veteran Justin Williams joins him on the team’s second line and has thrived with the young center; scoring five goals and adding four assists over his last six games. With John Carlson remaining out until after the All-Star break, Matt Niskanen has inherited the role as the point-man on the #1 power-play unit, making him one of the best value plays on the blue-line tonight. He’s picked up three power-play assists over the last two games and offers the cheapest exposure to Washington’s league best power-play.
Elite Options
PHI: None
WAS: Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Evgeny Kuznetsov, T.J. Oshie
Secondary Options
PHI: Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek, Wayne Simmonds, Brayden Schenn, Shayne Gostisbehere, Mark Streit
WAS: Justin Williams, Andre Burakovsky, Matt Niskanen
Nashville Predators at Calgary Flames – 09:30 PM EST
| Nashville Predators | Calgary Flames | ||||||||
 | Pekka Rinne |  | Karri Ramo | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 22-18-8 | 21-23-3 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.56 | 2.67 | 20.60% | 78.20% | Team Stats | 2.64 | 3.02 | 13.90% | 75.70% |
James Neal found the back of the net late in the third period last night to propel the Predators past the Canucks and give Nashville their third straight victory. They’ll look to keep the momentum going headed into the all-star break as they close out the first half of the season tonight in Calgary. With the Flames allowing an unsightly 3.02 goals against per game as well as sporting the NHL’s second worst penalty kill (75.7%), this looks like a nice spot for the Predators. Ryan Johansen has picked up three goals and six assists in nine games with his new team and it seems likely that he’ll keep things going skating alongside the lethal James Neal on the top line and power-play. Filip Forsberg is having a bit of a down season thus far, but he’s loaded with offensive upside and it’s highly unlikely he’ll stay quiet for long. He’s logs healthy minutes alongside Mike Fisher and Craig Smith and his sluggish start has kept him moderately priced around the industry. On defense, both Shea Weber and Roman Josi are known commodities. Both blue-liners have already cracked the 30 point barried and log as many minutes as they can handle making them elite options tonight. If you’re looking for some value, Mattias Ekholm has seen his role increase since Seth Jones was shipped out and has now picked up points in four straight games. He’s now seeing steady time on the point of the power-play and is one of the better bargains of the evening.
The All-Star break can’t come soon enough for the Calgary Flames as they’ve easily been one of the most disapointing teams in the NHL thus far this season. They dropped four of five games on their recent road trip but will be happy to return to the Saddledome where they’ve been far more impressive this season. Johnny Gaudreau leads the team with 46 points in 47 games this season but has been even more impressive on home ice as he’s posted 17 goals and 16 assists (and a +16) in 23 home games. Sean Monahan has been rather quiet lately but joins him both on the top line and the #1 power-play unit and both players see a nice fantasy boost as the Predators have posted an ugly 78.2% penalty kill. Former first round pick Sam Bennett has lit the lamp eight times over the last seven games but remains a bit too inconsistent for my liking in cash games. The Flames are loaded on the blue-line, but Mark Giordano has once again emerged as the top option and has racked up four goals and 14 assists in his last 16 games.
Elite Options
NSH: Ryan Johansen, James Neal, Filip Forsberg, Shea Weber, Roman Josi
CGY: Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Mark Giordano
Secondary Options
NSH: Mike Fisher, Craig Smith, Mike Ribeiro, Mattias Ekholm, Ryan Ellis
CGY: Sam Bennett, Michael Frolik, Mikael Backlund, Jiri Hudler, T.J. Brodie, Dougie Hamilton
Colorado Avalanche at Los Angeles Kings – 10:30 PM EST
| Colorado Avalanche | Los Angeles Kings | ||||||||
 | Calvin Pickard |  | Jonathan Quick | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 26-21-3 | 30-15-3 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.74 | 2.66 | 20.00% | 80.40% | Team Stats | 2.58 | 2.23 | 21.20% | 82.20% |
Patrick Roy did not enjoy himself in last night’s 6-1 drubbing at the hands of the San Jose Sharks, but won’t have too long to stew on the ‘Avs sluggish performance as they’ll look to finish the first half of the season on a high note against the Los Angeles Kings tonight at the Staples Center. Despite their disappointing performance last night, Colorado’s 8-4-0 record over their last 12 games has firmly entrenched them into a battle for one of the last playoff spots in the Western Conference. With that said, potentially tired legs and a tremendous puck possession differential makes this a very difficult matchup for Colorado. Nathan Mackinnon and Matt Duchene join forces on Colorado’s top forward line and are easily their most dangerous offensive weapons. However, they’re set to be shadowed by Anze Kopitar pestering defense every time they hop over the boards and that makes them better suited for GPP use. On defense, Tyson Barrie lit up this Los Angeles team in their last meeting; scoring a pair of goals and dishing out two assists. He’s racked up 32 points in 47 games and firmly secured the job as the quarterback of the #1 power-play unit.
The Kings have jumped out to what is likely an insurmountable lead in the Pacific Division and have seemingly put things into cruise control over the last several weeks. They’ve posted just a 5-4-1 record in their last ten games but they still happen to be the best puck possession team in the NHL this season by Corsi standards and will battle a Colorado team ranked dead last in the same catagory (44.2 CF%). Anze Kopitar broke out of a two game scoring funk with an assist against San Jose on Sunday and has now racked up four goals and 17 assists over his last 15 games. He’ll be joined by Tyler Toffoli, who’s already scored a pair of goals against Colorado this season, and Milan Lucic on both the top forward line and #1 power-play unit where all three make for strong plays. Jeff Carter headlines the second line and has posted 13 goals and 21 assists in 43 games this season and has been widely overlooked lately making him a very intriguing option in GPP’s. On defense, Drew Doughty may draw the most attention, but it’s been Jake Muzzin putting up big numbers lately. Doughty’s partner on the power-play has posted one goal and eight assists in 11 games this month and can be rostered at a fraction of the price on most sites.
Elite Options
COL: Tyson Barrie
LAK: Anze Kopitar, Tyler Toffoli, Drew Doughty, Jake Muzzin
Secondary Options
COL: Nathan MacKinnon, Matt Duchene, Carl Soderberg, Gabriel Landeskog, Erik Johnson
LAK: Jeff Carter, Milan Lucic, Marian Gaborik, Vincent Lecavalier, Alec Martinez