The Relief Brief: Monday, August 15th

by Collin Campbell (collinman005@gmail.com) Last Updated 2016-08-16 02:25:25

Somewhere around 35% of at bats come against a team’s bullpen. Most DFSers, however, pay attention only to the matchup an offense has with starting pitchers.

In order to give RotoGrinders readers an edge on the field, we have developed a Bullpen Pitching article that focuses on bullpen usage and skill, as well as the elements that may come into play on that day in terms of the bullpen pitchers an offense is likeliest to see. Although we developed this article as part of our Premium Content Package, we decided to make this article free to all readers for the remainder of the 2016 MLB season!

Feel free to comment with any other ideas for this article that you would find useful in your own daily research.

Monday night features nine games. Let’s get to it!

1. Bullpen Highlights

Chad Green has started four games in 2016 along with four other outings in relief. Green surpassed five innings on just one occasion and has not exceeded 86 pitches in any outing. The Yankees bullpen has fallen off a bit in recent weeks with the just the 13th best SIERA over the last 30 days (compared with their season long rank of third best). I’d expect the Blue Jays to see plenty of the Yankees ‘pen in this one, and in an offensive friendly environment.

Daniel Norris now has four starts under his belt in 2016, and his numbers show that he hasn’t pitched poorly (with one exception). One thing that Norris is not doing is working deep into games. In his four starts this season, Norris has a total of 17 innings pitched. The Tigers bullpen continues to hover right at league average. Thanks to great starting performances lately, this bullpen is extremely well rested for this time of the year, and should be firing on all cylinders tonight.

Brandon Finnegan has three straight starts of six innings or more and has only given up three total runs during that stretch. Some may look at those numbers and go elsewhere, but his peripheral numbers have not improved very much (if at all) over that stretch. He has served up 24 dongs on the season (including two in his last start) and is backed up by one of the league’s worst bullpens. Let’s not forget about the Great American Small Park either.

Ross Detwiler somehow stymied the Orioles in his first start of 2016. In fact, Detwiler went for eight innings and didn’t allow a run! A deeper look into that outing against Baltimore shows a low BAPIP of .222 and an xFIP of 4.10. I don’t expect the apparent success of his last outing to carry over into more success against the Rangers in Arlington tonight. The good news for the A’s is that their bullpen is relatively fresh going into a game that they will surely be called upon.

Like some other starting pitcher veterans, Jorge De La Rosa often gets an extended leash regardless of his form or effectiveness. De La Rosa has allowed three or more earned runs in ten of his 17 starts. His good GB% is offset by a 4.22 BB/9. Jake McGee and Carlos Esteves have both worked a lot in the last two games, and will likely be unavailable tonight. The Rockies bullpen owns the fourth worst SIERA over the last 30 days.

Robbie Ray shut down the Mets in his last outing, going for seven innings and allowing zero runs on just three hits. Ray and the Diamondbacks will need a similar outing tonight against the Mets in Arizona. Yesterday, Zack Greinke couldn’t get through two innings against the Red Sox, which took a heavy toll on the bullpen. In all, Arizona was forced to use six arms in relief yesterday and will certainly be fatigued tonight. Also, keep in mind that on top of fatigue, the Diamondbacks bullpen is among the worst in baseball.

He’s not quite back to King Felix status yet, but Felix Hernandez did bounce back in his last start by shutting down the Tigers offense over seven innings. Tonight, Felix faces the Angels in Anaheim. Hernandez has faced the Angles three times on the season, and has gone for at least seven innings on all three occasions, but has also given up ten earned runs and four dongs. While BVP believers will look to Mike Trout tonight, I don’t see a lot to like here in terms of Angels bats. Felix is still above average, and this Mariners bullpen is elite in terms of SIERA and strikeout percentage.

I knew that Ryan Vogelsong was old, but I didn’t realize that he is 39. Everyone knows that old people need to rest. Vogelsong is not exception. Since coming off of a three-month stint on the DL, Vogelsong has pitched very well in his two starts. In those two starts, he has accrued 12 innings, 11 strikeouts, and just one earned run with an xFIP of just over 3.00. Tonight, he gets to face his former team in front of fans that he played his best baseball in front of from 2011 through 2015. Something tells me that he’ll be amped up for this game, but I doubt he sees more than six innings and the Pirates bullpen can be had, though this is a very pitcher friendly ballpark.

My Top 3 Bullpen Situations To Attack

1. Arizona Diamondbacks
2. Cincinnati Reds
3. Oakland Athletics

2. Bullpen Personnel Movement

The Red Sox recalled Heath Hembree from AAA. Hembree has struggled despite a deceptively good ERA. He should handle middle relief for the Red Sox.

The Twins recalled Ryan O’Rourke from AAA. O’Rourke should be a specialist against lefties.

Darren O’Day of the Orioles returned the 15-Day DL with a rotator cuff injury. This is a big blow to the late inning chemistry of the Orioles bullpen.

The Nationals finally cut ties with Jonathan Papelbon by releasing the veteran closer. He will likely be signed before the end of the season.

3. Other Notes and insights that I find along the way.

While the Rockies bullpen does own the fourth worst SIERA in baseball over the last 30 days, they have the third lowest HR/9 allowed at just 0.59.

Feel free to follow me and ask me questions on Twitter – @collinman005

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