The Relief Brief: Thursday, August 25th

by Collin Campbell (collinman005@gmail.com) Last Updated 2016-08-26 01:43:32

Somewhere around 35% of at bats come against a team’s bullpen. Most DFSers, however, pay attention only to the matchup an offense has with starting pitchers.

In order to give RotoGrinders readers an edge on the field, we have developed a Bullpen Pitching article that focuses on bullpen usage and skill, as well as the elements that may come into play on that day in terms of the bullpen pitchers an offense is likeliest to see. Although we developed this article as part of our Premium Content Package, we decided to make this article free to all readers for the remainder of the 2016 MLB season!

Feel free to comment with any other ideas for this article that you would find useful in your own daily research.

Thursday night features a nine game slate. While I won’t break down every bullpen situation, we will begin with the bullpen highlights. Let’s get to it!

1. Bullpen Highlights

Ubaldo Jimenez has been consistently bad this season. In his 18 starts, he has exceeded five innings just four times. Jimenez also owns a lofty 6.94 ERA with a 4.93 xFIP. Jimenez is unlikely to go deep into this game against the Nationals. The Orioles bullpen has a SIERA above four over the last 30 days, and they worked a decent amount last night. This might be a good spot to grab a bat or two.

Jered Weaver has allowed four earned runs or more in 13 of his 24 starts on the season. Tonight, Weaver will take his 27.7 GB% into Toronto to face the Blue Jays. Don’t expect to see a long outing out of Weaver here. The Angels bullpen owns the fourth worst SIERA in baseball on the season, as well as the second lowest strikeout percentage in the league.

Seth Lugo went 6.2 innings in his first big league start, while allowing three earned runs (4.97 xFIP). Lugo only has one other outing in the minor leagues in which he exceeded six innings. Lugo will face the Cardinals tonight, and I’m anticipating somewhere in the realm of five to six innings. While the Mets bullpen has been excellent over the course of the season, they have been forced to work a lot lately, including almost the entire game on Tuesday night. Expect some potential fatigue tonight.

Josh Tomlin has allowed a league high 32 home runs on the season. That’s a whole lot of bombs (more on this below)! Tomlin has failed to reach five innings in three of his last four outings. The Rangers have some run scoring potential here, as well as the potential to get into this Cleveland bullpen early on. The Indians bullpen has been well above average, and only got better at the trade deadline by acquiring Andrew Miller. There is plenty of appeal in attacking Tomlin, but don’t expect the same success later in the game.

“Ol’ One L” Wily Peralta has been palatable in his three starts since returning to the big club, but don’t be fooled! Over the course of the season, Peralta is allowing a combined wOBA of just north of .400. The Pirates seem to have broken out of their offensive funk, and may be in a good spot here in Milwaukee. The Brewers ‘pen is also susceptible to giving up runs with a SIERA of 4.04.

Anthony Ranaudo gets his third start of the season tonight. In his previous two starts, Ranaudo surprisingly limited the Cubs to three runs through 6.2 innings and unsurprisingly allowed five earned runs to the Indians through four innings. Tonight, I expect something more along the lines of his start against Cleveland as he faces the Mariners in Chicago. The White Sox bullpen has a SIERA of 4.20 on the season.

Robbie Ray has 174 strikeouts through 140 innings pitched this season. Ray has not thrown fewer than five innings since the sixth of June. I expect a strong outing from Ray tonight against the Braves, but Ray has been prone to the long ball as well. If the Braves can find a way to get to Ray early (or if you want to zig where others zag), they will be facing a bullpen that has allowed 1.88 HR/9 over the last 30 days, and has the second worst SIERA in baseball for the season.

Ross Stripling has three consecutive starts since being moved back into the rotation, and has had solid results over that stretch. Stripling has allowed seven runs over 17 innings over that stretch. The most pitches that Stripling has thrown since the month of April is 94, which came in his last outing (a five inning start). I don’t expect Stripling to see more than five plus innings here before handing it over to the ‘pen. While the Dodgers bullpen has been elite, they have had trouble in middle relief lately and have been moving arms back and forth from AAA to help solve the long relief problem. If Stripling does struggle here, there is some sneaky potential here, albeit in a pitcher friendly ballpark.

My Top 3 Bullpen Situations To Attack

1. Los Angeles Angels
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. Chicago White Sox

2. Bullpen Personnel Movement

The Mets recalled lefty Sean Gilmartin from AAA. Gilmartin was solid in 2015, but has struggled this season. He will likely take on a mid relief role and possibly become a lefty specialist if he regains his form.

The Rays recalled Tyler Sturdevant from AAA. He will be expected to be an inning eater in low risk spots.

“Papelbon Watch” continues, but not with the same intrigue as Potter Watch.

3. Other Notes And Insights

Last night, Zach Britton allowed an earned run for the first time since April.

Josh Tomlin has two starts out of 23 in which he has not allowed a home run. Holy smokes.

Feel free to follow me and ask me questions on Twitter – @collinman005

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