The Relief Brief: Thursday, July 21st

by Collin Campbell (collinman005@gmail.com) Last Updated 2016-07-22 01:57:54

Somewhere around 35% of at bats come against a team’s bullpen. Most DFSers, however, pay attention only to the matchup an offense has with starting pitchers.

In order to give RotoGrinders readers an edge on the field, we have developed a Bullpen Pitching article that focuses on bullpen usage and skill, as well as the elements that may come into play on that day in terms of the bullpen pitchers an offense is likeliest to see. Although we developed this article as part of our Premium Content Package, we decided to make this article free to all readers for the remainder of the 2016 MLB season!

This article will feature three main topics.

1. Bullpen Highlights

- Bad SP combined with bad/tired bullpen – Bad SP combined with elite bullpen – Elite SP combined with bad/tired bullpen

2. Bullpen Personnel Movement

- Call-ups & Expectations – Other Roster Movement (ie Clay Buchholz moving to bullpen)

3. Other Notes and insights that I find along the way.

Feel free to comment with any other ideas for this article that you would find useful in your own daily research.

Thursday night features another short slate, with only seven games on the schedule. Let’s get to it!

1. Bullpen Highlights

Tom Koehler draws the start tonight for the Marlins. Koehler has been on a rough stretch lately where he hasn’t gotten past the fifth inning in four straight starts. The Marlins bullpen has been worked a lot lately, including three straight days of work for one of their best bullpen arms, Nick Wittigren. While the Marlins bullpen isn’t elite, it is average to slightly above average in most statistical categories. However, as I mentioned, they have seen a lot of work lately. Phelps and Ramos specifically have also seen a spike in work in the last few games. Ramos should be able to close out a game if necessary. Overall, this is a mediocre starting pitcher with a tired bullpen behind him. Mattingly may very well give Koehler a longer leash tonight in hopes of him racking up some innings. Unfortunately, the Phillies are not likely to capitalize on this opportunity, but there may be a bat or two that you’d like to target in this spot. I wouldn’t fault you for it.

Matt Garza, Francisco Liriano and their respective bullpens are in intriguing spots tonight. As we accurately assessed, last night was indeed a heavy bullpen game with Chase Anderson and Jeff Locke getting the starts. Unfortunately, Francisco Liriano hasn’t pitched beyond the sixth inning in ten straight starts, largely due to inefficiency and walks. Working against Liriano and the Pirates pitching staff is the fact that the Brewers lead the league in BB% when facing LHP. Meanwhile, the Pirates bullpen has thrown nine innings in the last two days, and it is a below average unit to begin with. Milwaukee may not be an elite offense, but they have managed to put up five runs against the Pirates ‘pen in the last two days. This could be a spot to take some Brewers bats.

On the other side of this game, Matt Garza gets the call. Garza has not yet exceeded six innings on the season (through six starts) and has given up at least four earned runs in four straight starts. Simply, he’s been getting hit hard (39.3% hard contact to LH, 38.2% hard contact to RH). To make matters worse, the Brewers bullpen is also in need of some rest as they’ve been called upon to throw seven innings in the last two days, including five last night. Jeremy Jeffress has been one of the few reliable arms out of the bullpen for Milwaukee, but he has now thrown on consecutive days and would be unlikely to go again tonight. Overall, this is a prime spot to use some Pirates bats. PNC Park isn’t exactly hitter friendly, but the matchup with the Brewers pitching staff very well might be.

Steven Wright has been a fantastic story so far this season. He has consistently worked deep into games for most of the season, but he has stumbled a bit as of late. Wright has allowed 15 earned runs over his last four starts, and he hasn’t worked beyond the sixth inning in any of those previous four games. The Red Sox are in desperate need of a good start from Wright tonight after newly acquired Drew Pomeranz couldn’t get out of the fourth inning yesterday against the Giants. Robbie Ross Jr. is unlikely to be available after working on consecutive evenings (granted, he only threw two pitches on Tuesday evening). Tommy Layne has also worked on consecutive nights, which means that the Red Sox may not have a left handed pitcher to go to out of the bullpen as both Ross and Layne will likely be unavailable. If you like the Twins chances against Wright tonight, this could be an opportunity to capitalize on a weary (and badly injured) bullpen. However, this is also a spot for Steven Wright to step up and shine as he has done many times this season.

James Shields gets the call tonight against the Detroit Tigers. After a rocky start to his career in Chicago, Shields has turned in four straight quality starts (though the advanced metrics aren’t encouraging). In Shields’ second start for the White Sox, he faced these very same Tigers and got lit up for six earned runs through five innings. The White Sox are coming off of an extra innings game yesterday, in which four of their most reliable arms threw double digit pitches. If you trust analytics when targeting pitchers to pick on (and you should), this is a spot that is very compelling. Here we have a pitcher who (superficially) appears to be humming along, while the underlying numbers tell a different story. We also have a potentially weary bullpen. Oh, and we have the 9th best wOBA vs RHP offense in the Tigers. Compelling, indeed.

Chad Bettis gets the call tonight against the Braves at Coors Field. By the way, I wrote a really stupid song about Coors Field that you should listen to if you have absolutely nothing better to do (https://youtu.be/RISkDceXysU). Okay, back to the analysis. The Rockies are coming off of a series in which they got absolutely shelled by the lowly Tampa Bay Rays. During that three game series, the Rockies ‘pen threw 13.2 innings. The Atlanta Braves offense might be just what the doctor ordered, but this is still Coors. Bettis has gone six or more innings in five of his last six starts, including a six and two thirds of an inning start in Atlanta in his last start. This is a situation where the Rockies are in need of a lengthy outing from Bettis and may leave him in a bit longer than usual. If you find a Braves bat or two with success against right-handed – ground ball pitchers, I won’t blame you. I mean, it’s Coors! Just know that many of those bats are likely to be higher owned because of that very fact.

While I wouldn’t call Matt Moore an elite pitcher, he has been piling up an elite workload in recent months. Since complaining about having too short of a leash earlier in the season, Moore has gone for six-plus innings in all of his last eight starts. The Rays will be counting on him to do more of the same after a taxing series in Colorado. The Rays ‘pen is eighth worst in WHIP and fourth worst in HR/9 allowed. Moore will likely have an even longer leash in this one. On the season, Moore has allowed 16 dongs (a dong is a home run, duh) to right handed bats through 89 innings. With a slightly longer leash, there may be some solid upside in the Athletics power righties.

Sonny Gray will start opposite Matt Moore tonight. The Athletics bullpen will likely have three members unavailable as Daniel Coulombe, Patrick Schuster and Liam Hendriks have seen a lot of work in the last two days. Seasoned DFS players have learned to hate on Sonny Gray due to lackluster advanced statistics, but this is an intriguing spot for him. Gray has gone seven straight starts of six innings or more (while averaging a meager four K’s per start during that stretch). Meanwhile, the Rays own the sixth lowest wOBA and the third highest (as in most) strikeouts vs RHP. This could indeed be a spot where Gray is able to infuriate all DFS players by posting another unimpressive quality (barely) start.

2. Bullpen Personnel Movement

Koji Uehara was placed on the 15-day disabled list with a right pectoral strain. With Craig Kimbrel also on the DL, newly acquired Brad Ziegler will assume the role of closer for the dismantled Red Sox bullpen.

The Dodgers called up Grant Dayton to be added to the bullpen. Dayton is a lefty who accumulated 85 strikeouts in just 48 innings pitched in the minors this season. He should be another strong arm out of the ‘pen for an already strong unit.

The Chicago Cubs made a trade with the Seattle Mariners to acquire LHP Mike Montgomery. Montgomery has been dominant against left handed bats all season and should be a nice fit for the Cubs. Montgomery has great versatility as well. He can start, he can be a long arm out of the bullpen, and he can take on lefties late in games.

The Nationals called up relief pitching prospect Koda Glover on Wednesday. Glover has been lights out as he has climbed through the Nationals minor league system and will now get a chance to contribute to the strong bullpen for Washington.

3. Other Notes and insights that I find along the way.

You may know that the Cincinnati Reds are the worst statistical bullpen in baseball, but the Texas Rangers are the worst in the AL. In fact, the Rangers bullpen has the worst (lowest) strikeout rate in baseball at just 17.9%.

The Kansas City Royals bullpen has been a strength over the last few seasons, and this season is no different. The Royals ‘pen leads the league in LOB% at an astounding 80.4%!

Thanks for reading, and keep the feedback coming!

Feel free to follow me and ask me questions on Twitter – collinman005