10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for June 10th
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This MLB season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 MLB notes for June 10th.
1. The Philadelphia Phillies have allowed quality starts to nine of the last 12 right-handed starters they’ve faced (and one of the three that didn’t came close, as Bronson Arroyo allowed three earned over five innings). It’s not exactly Kershaw, Scherzer, and Sale we’re talking about, either. Here are the pitchers: Jeff Hoffman, German Marquez, Tyler Chatwood, Tim Adleman, Edinson Volquez, Dan Straily, Johnny Cueto, Mike Foltynewicz, and R.A. Dickey. Only two of these pitchers (Hoffman in limited innings and Cueto) have a SIERA below 4.00. The Phillies have been awful against right-handed pitching as of late – their 78 wRC+ is one point higher than that of the Padres, who we routinely attack – and that means that Carlos Martinez at home against the Phillies is about the best matchup you can ask for. The DraftKings algorithm loves him, as he’s priced $2,300(!!!) more than he is at FanDuel ($12,300 at DK, $10,000 at FD). At FanDuel, CarMart is arguably the best way to spend your salary at pitcher.
2. Arguably, because Jeff Samardzija has been elite this year. In his last start, he fanned eight Brewers, which was the eighth game this season that he struck out eight or more batters (he had nine such games in 2015 and 2016 combined). Here is the list of pitchers who have struck out 8+ batters more often than Samardzija (and brace yourself – it’s a long list): Chris Sale. Samardzija’s career year is seeming less and less fluky with each start – he ranks third in MLB with a 2.91 SIERA – and he’s in consideration every time he takes the mound, particularly at home. On Saturday, he faces the Twins at AT&T Park, and he comes at a slight discount from Martinez at FanDuel ($800) and a serious discount from him at DraftKings ($1,400).
3. The Cubs are tied for 26th in hard contact against righties (29.5 Hard%)…with the Phillies. Only the Padres, Reds, and Giants have been worse this year. That’s not a hard-to-dig-up stat or anything, but it was surprising, nonetheless. And while Jeff Hoffman has been lights out through three starts (26 strikeouts, three walks, 2.65 SIERA), the Cubs have a slew of hitters due for positive regression: Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Ben Zobrist, Ian Happ, Jason Heyward, and Addison Russell all have sub-.300 BABIPs. With the wind blowing out at Wrigley at 20 miles per hour, Hoffman carries a ton of risk, even at his modest price tag.
4. Twenty-seven times this season, a pitcher has allowed six or more extra-base hits in a single game. Alex Wood has allowed six extra-base hits all season, over 48 innings of work. Only one of those extra-base hits was a home run (to A.J. Pollock), and only two of them came in his home park (a pair of doubles to Brandon Belt and J.T. Riddle). Wood has been a revelation for the Dodgers this year, ranking second in MLB in SIERA (2.61), fourth in strikeout rate (31.3%), first in wOBA allowed (.223), first in ground ball rate (68.7%), and first in hard contact (20.0%). In other words, he’s been some freaky combination of Clayton Kershaw and Dallas Keuchel, getting almost exclusively ground balls, yet not sacrificing any strikeouts. It’s always a risky proposition taking a pitcher returning from injury, and Wood will certainly be on a short leash. But he should be efficient enough to be a worthwhile SP2 at two-pitcher sites.
5. Ten hitters in Major League Baseball have an OPS of .879 or higher against Chris Sale (min. 35 at-bats): four of them are Detroit Tigers. Miguel Cabrera (.958 OPS against Sale), Victor Martinez (1.207), Ian Kinsler (.888), and J.D. Martinez (.879) all made the list, and they’ve all homered at least three times against Sale. While BvP alone probably shouldn’t be enough to scare us off a pitcher, Sale has taken a step back since his string of double-digit strikeout performances, allowing 11 earned runs over his last 18 1/3 innings. He’s still getting the strikeouts, and his ownership will likely be high enough that he’s a dangerous fade in cash games. But against an entirely right-handed Tigers lineup, there’s a case to be made for a Sale fade in tournaments, especially with his elevated price tag. And if you really want to get crazy, each of these four cost just $2,500 at FanDuel (in addition to Justin Upton, who costs $2,500, and Nick Castellanos, who costs $2,000). Given Sale’s likely high ownership, a Tigers stack in a low-dollar, large-field tournament may be worth a shot.
6. In his first opportunity as Rays leadoff hitter, Mallex Smith took full advantage, homering and stealing three bases. The last Rays player to swipe three bags in a game was Johnny Damon, all the way back on September 16th, 2011. The last player with three steals and a home run in a game was Carl Crawford on May 24th, 2006. It seems highly likely that he holds onto the leadoff spot as long as Kevin Kiermaier remains out. While Sonny Gray has been effective at limiting steals with just 10 allowed since last season (shoutout to Allan Lem – @AllanLemDFS on Twitter – for pointing that out), but Stephen Vogt has allowed a league-worst 35 steals this season while throwing out just six base runners. I’m not sure which of those wins out, but at the minimum at FanDuel, Smith feels like a plug-and-play for cash games.
7. Matt Carpenter has home runs in two of his past three games and multiple hits in two of his past three games. He seems to be heating up, but even with the slow start to the year, he’s still been able to generate power against right-handed pitching. His 42.6% hard hit rate is just a tick worse than Eric Thames’s, and his 49.5% fly ball rate is a career high is fifth-highest in MLB. His price remains low across the industry, and this feels like a classic “buy low” spot, as Nick Pivetta, who (small sample warning!) has shown no ability to get lefties out in his first handful of MLB starts, Carpenter should have no trouble putting the ball in play. He’s a great way to fill out the first base slot for cash games on the early slate.
8. This year, Steven Souza, Jr. has a massive ISO split. Against righties, he’s smashing, with a .297 ISO in the same neighborhood as guys like Chris Davis and Justin Bour. Against lefties, he’s down in Nick Markakis territory, with a .094 ISO. Now, Souza’s 74 plate appearances is definitely too small to draw any sweeping conclusions (and if you want evidence that “against lefties” numbers are a long way from being stable this year, consider that Edwin Encarnacion .092 ISO is even worse than Souza’s). But historically, Souza has a lower hard hit rate and fly ball rate against lefties. We should be targeting him against righties, and he gets one on Saturday, as the Rays take on Sonny Gray. Souza’s high strikeout rate (28.5% against RHP this year) always makes him a risk for cash games, but he’s an elite tournament play.
9. There’s BvP, and then there’s Brian McCann’s numbers against Ricky Nolasco. In 71 career at-bats, McCann is slashing .338/.351/.746 (1.098 OPS), including 13 extra-base hits and eight home runs. Likely hitting out of the five spot in an Astros lineup with one of the highest implied totals of the day (5.10 runs), McCann is a plug-and-play at the catcher position.
10. Only three pitchers in Major League Baseball have an xFIP above 5.00 and a hard contact rate greater than 40.0% against right-handed pitching: Amir Garrett, Derek Holland, and … Justin Verlander. While Verlander’s name recognition might lower the ownership of Red Sox bats, it shouldn’t. Their 5.08 implied run total is one of the highest on the slate, and Mookie Betts, in particular, remains underpriced across the industry given his skills (he costs less than Chris Taylor and Chris Owings at DraftKings, for example). He’s a top target in all formats.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to keep the discussion going!