2017 MLB DFS Preview – American League Central
Hello RotoGrinders. Welcome to the AL Central article to help you get prepared for MLB DFS Opening Day, which is just around the corner.
The goal of these articles is to help prepare you for MLB DFS in terms of what has happened since you last played in September. I will be focused on highlighting new acquisitions, expected opening day starters, and share any pertinent information I come across (ex: Player A plans to run more, Player B is coming into camp in the best shape ever, Player C started taking steroids this offseason, etc.).
You can find me on Twitter here. With that said, let’s dive in:
Cleveland Indians – 2016 Record: 94-67
The Cleveland Indians were one run away from winning the World Series. If you’re an Indians fan, you can find solace in the fact that most of your team is still intact. The loss of Mike Napoli and his 34 home runs and 101 RBIs definitely hurts, but rejoice Indians fans, your team has brought on Edwin Encarnacion and his parrot.
So how good was Encarnacion? Last year, he hit 42 home runs (tied for 3rd in the majors), had 127 RBIs (tied for 2nd in the majors), and had 87 walks (tied for 12th in the majors). Edwin should be a beast yet again at the heart of the Cleveland order.
The biggest concern for the Indians is the health of Jason Kipnis. Kipnis is battling soreness in his right rotator cuff and will likely miss the start of the season. The options to replace Kipnis are not pretty: Michael Martinez and Erik Gonzalez. Another option would be to shift Jose Ramirez to second base and play Giovanny Urshela at third base. With the Indians expected to make a deep run into the playoffs this year, I would expect them to ease Kipnis back slowly.
Michael Brantley’s health is the other big issue this spring. Brantley only played 11 games last year because of shoulder injuries. While he’s been able to play in simulated games this spring, there’s been no timetable set on his return. There is not a lot of depth behind Brantley in the outfield (Michael Martinez, Austin Jackson, Abraham Almonte, Brandon Guyer). If you are an Indians fan, pray to the fantasy gods that Brantley can return healthy or that Abraham Almonte gets back on the steroids (just kidding, don’t do steroids).
The Indians’ rotation is solid from top to bottom. Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco have both been hit hard in their first appearances this spring. It’s usually not a concern as pitchers tend to use spring training to try new pitches, but they found some swelling in Carrasco’s elbow so they’re going to be careful with him. Trevor Bauer suffered through Drone Gate last year where his drone destroyed his finger right before his playoff start. Bauer finally found success last year by limiting his walks (70 walks in 190 innings).
I have no idea how Josh Tomlin did it, but he had a 13-9 record, an ERA of 4.40, and a WHIP of 1.19. Those are all solid. But when you dig into his numbers, you’ll find he gave up 36 home runs in 174 innings. I don’t know about you, but someone who has a HR/9 of 1.9 and isn’t a strikeout pitcher scares me for DFS.
Detroit Tigers – 2016 Record: 86-75
I could see the Detroit Tigers making a run for the division if the Indians’ health starts falling apart. The Tigers are full of veterans who can get the job done. Just when I thought Miguel Cabrera was slowing down, he hits 38 home runs in 2016 with an OPS of .956. Despite having over 2,000 professional innings on his shoulder, Justin Verlander wins 16 games with 254 strikeouts and a WHIP of 1.001. Victor Martinez decides to turn back the clock and hit 27 home runs at age 38, which is the second highest total of his career. Can all three of these veterans repeat last year’s performance? I honestly wouldn’t bet against them.
The biggest hole on this team is center field, and it’s a huge hole. It’s the size of a hole you find on jeans that hipsters are wearing these days (shakes fist angrily). I seriously considered putting a question mark in that position because the Tigers don’t have a viable solution. Mikie Mahtook was traded this off-season to the Tigers and is an option. JaCoby Jones (not to be confused with the football player Jacoby Jones, who doesn’t capitalize his “C” – I’m not trolling, check it out for yourself) is also an option. Then you have guys like Anthony Gose or Tyler “Don’t Call Me Phil” Collins who could potentially find their way as the starter. It’s a hot mess that should probably be avoided for DFS.
The Tigers were dealt a big blow in the spring when J.D. Martinez suffered a sprained Lisfranc ligament in his right foot. He’ll be out 3-4 weeks and will miss most of April. Hard-hitting Steven Moya will replace him in right field until Martinez is healthy enough to return.
The pitching options are attractive on the Tigers. Michael Fulmer had a great rookie season, taking home the AL Rookie of the Year award. Daniel Norris oozes with potential (71 strikeouts in only 69.1 innings) but he gave up 10 home runs and had a WHIP of 1.399. If Norris can find a way to limit the long-ball, he makes for a great SP2 on DraftKings in the right matchups. Matt Boyd and Anibal Sanchez are fighting for the final spot in the rotation. Boyd has the edge as of now, with Sanchez getting pounded this spring to the tune of 15 hits allowed in 5.2 innings. Sanchez is working on a new arm angle to see if that will help him, but it may be too little, too late.
Kansas City Royals – 2016 Record: 81-81
The Royals are two years removed from their World Series title, but they did a significant amount of retooling this off-season in order to put themselves in a position to make it back to the playoffs. The biggest news was the sudden loss of Yordano Ventura, who was slated to be a big part of this rotation. Without Ventura, the Royals filled out their rotation by trading Jarrod Dyson for Nate Karns, and signing Jason Hammel to a two-year contract. Karns has been confirmed as the 5th starter.
Kansas City was 27th in the majors last year in home runs and was never an exciting team to stack, especially when playing their home games at Kauffman Stadium. Brandon Moss and his much needed power was brought in to be the DH. Early signs are that Moss will be batting towards the latter half of the lineup, which makes him a sneakier play in Royals’ stacks. The Royals also addressed their lack of hitting by trading Wade Davis to the Cubs for Jorge Soler Power. This trade shifts Kelvin Herrera into the closer role.
It’s worth noting that Salvador Perez hurt his knee in the World Baseball Classic from a home-plate collision and had to drop out of the competition. The sad part about the collision was that it was with his Royals teammate, Drew Butera. Butera is really keen on taking over that starting catcher position. Just kidding, Drew! Come on guys, that’s what the Posey rule was for!
The only position battle to monitor this spring is the second base competition between Whit Merrifield and Raul Mondesi. Mondesi is dealing with some minor concussion-like symptoms after a spring training collision, so I’m giving Merrifield the slight edge in this battle if Mondesi has trouble recovering in time for opening day.
Chicago White Sox – 2016 Record: 78-84
I envision the Chicago White Sox competing in 2017. That is, they will be competing for the worst team in the majors (oh, burn!). For DFS purposes, the White Sox play in a hitter-friendly yard and have some sluggers (Jose Abreu, Todd Frazier). But there are some concerns here.
The starting catcher will either be minor league invite Geovany Soto, or light-hitting Omar Narvaez (I dare you to say that name three times in the face of your significant other tonight and see what their reaction is). Second base will be manned by Tyler “I’ll Have The” Saladino after Brett Lawrie was surprisingly released earlier this month. Saladino could approach a 15 homer / 20 steal campaign in 2017 if things break right for him.
The White Sox outfield is messy. You have former steroid user Melky Cabrera in left field. Charlie Tilson was expected to be the starting center fielder but suffered a stress reaction in his foot and will miss at least a month, so the White Sox will rely on stars like Adam Engel, Jacob May, Leury Garcia, and Peter Bourjos. Rymer Liriano was claimed off waivers in the off-season from the Brewers and is expected to be the starting right fielder. It’s not a good sign when even the Brewers don’t want you (oh, burn number two!).
The starting rotation added Derek Holland to be the fifth starter. Adam Eaton was traded this off-season to the Nationals for top prospects Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez. Honestly, the White Sox might be better off letting these guys pitch every fifth day instead of giving Derek Holland a contract, but they’ll likely spend most of this season being groomed in the minors. After all, the world needs more James Shields and his 1.60 WHIP in their lives.
Minnesota Twins – 2016 Record: 59-103
The Twins might contend with the White Sox as one of the worst teams in baseball, but there are some nice pieces here for DFS purposes. What Paul Molitor does with the lead-off spot will heavily determine the DFS value of players.
Byron Buxton is being considered for the lead-off spot, which would significantly boost his value after spending last year at the bottom of the lineup. Brian Dozier spent time as the lead-off hitter last year but after hitting 42 home runs, the Twins will likely bat him third so he can be closer to the heart of the order.
Joe Mauer is expected to hit second. There is still a chance Jorge Polanco might bat second, but with Buxton being the favorite to bat lead-off, a Buxton-Mauer-Dozier trio at the top of the lineup makes more sense, sending Polanco to the bottom of the order.
It’s worth noting that Kennys Vargas spent time this off-season taking hitting lessons from former steroid user Manny Ramirez. Vargas showed incredible power last year and could be in for a nice year.
Lastly, the Twins signed former American Idol singer Jason Castro to a two-year deal to be their everyday starting catcher. This is a significant upgrade to the catchers they used in 2016 (John Ryan Murphy, Juan Centeno, Kurt Suzuki).
If the Twins are going to lose games, the charge will be led by the awful pitching staff. Outside of Ervin Santana, there’s not a lot to be desired here for DFS. The Twins optioned Jose Berrios to stretch him out further after he only had limited playing time in the WBC, which will allow Tyler Duffey to start the season as the 5th starter. Berrios is one of the few talented pitchers on this Twins team so I’d expect him to be back in the majors soon.
Thanks for reading.