2017 MLB DFS Preview – National League East
Hello RotoGrinders. Spring Training is finally upon us, and the beauty that is DFS Baseball will be here shortly.
As a DFS player, one of my biggest struggles with any sport is that I’m focused on the current sport(s) in-season and don’t have ample time to do the necessary research for the ones upcoming. For example, I’m so buried in daily NBA research that when MLB Opening Day arrives in April, I emerge from my cave after months of hibernation and have no idea which free agents signed where or what happened at all in the offseason.
My goal for these MLB Preview articles is to help prepare you for MLB DFS in terms of what has happened since you last played in September. I’m planning to do a Preview article for each division, highlighting new acquisitions, expected opening day starters, and share any pertinent information I come across (ex: Player A plans to run more, Player B is coming into camp in the best shape ever, Player C started taking steroids this offseason, etc.).
You can find me on Twitter here. Feel free to give me any feedback on Twitter or in the Comments below (unless it’s negative feedback, in which case just keep it to yourself). As Spring Training progresses, players will get injured and others will start to separate themselves from competition. I’ll do my best to keep these Previews fresh and updated. With that said, let’s get it on.
Washington Nationals — 2016 Record: 95-67
On paper, the Nationals boast one of the strongest starting lineups in all of baseball and are in clear win-now mode. In December, the Nationals traded top prospect Lucas Giolito for Adam Eaton to roam center field. Despite batting lead-off for the White Sox last year, there are rumors that Dusty Baker might bat Eaton in the bottom half of the lineup in order to avoid a lefty-heavy top of the order that already includes Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy. Eaton put together a solid 14 HR / 14 ST season in 2016 with an OBP of .362, so it’s conceivable Baker could slot Eaton 8th or 9th to act as a second lead-off guy in front of Turner.
The three biggest questions for me about this team are the following:
Can Trea Turner repeat his 2016 success?
Turner hit an unsustainable .342 in 73 games, putting up 13 HR / 33 ST. If we extrapolate that over 155 games, we’re looking at 27 HR / 70 ST (which would have led the majors last year). Don’t get me wrong, the talent and speed is legit. He hit .300+ consistently in the minors and stole bases routinely, but there was a point last season where his price was sky-high and fading him became the right move.
Was Daniel Murphy’s career year a fluke?
Murphy hit 25 homers last season and was one of the best second basemen in the game. Do you know what his career high in homers was before last season? 14. Murphy barely lost the batting title to D.J. LeMahieu with a .347 batting average. Do you know what his career batting average was prior to 2016? .288. All I’m saying is it would not shock me if Daniel Murphy came back to earth and regressed closer to his pre-2016 averages.
Is Bryce Harper a 20, 30, or 40 home run hitter?
Here are Harper’s home run totals by season: 22, 20, 13, 42, 24. I think we were all a bit fooled last year into thinking Harper was now a 40-homer guy, only to see him hit 24 homers in 2016. Harper is only 24 years old so we need to keep in mind this man-child is still really young. The power is there and will keep developing, but as of right now that 42-homer year is an outlier.
What happens when you lose your starting catcher in Wilson Ramos to free agency? Well, you naturally over-compensate for the loss and acquire two capable starting catchers in Derek Norris and Matt Wieters, duh? All indications are that the Nationals will trade Norris now that Wieters has been inked to a two-year, $21 million dollar deal to act as the clear starter.
The other noteworthy acquisition is Adam Lind on a one-year deal. I’m listing Ryan Zimmerman and Adam Lind as co-starters as I’m fully expecting a platoon. Zimmerman has not played more than 115 games in the last three seasons, so a platoon would keep him fresh. It’s also noteworthy that Zimmerman’s career OPS against lefties is .891, compared to .783 against righties. In contrast, Lind’s career OPS against righties is .849, compared to a dismal .589 against lefties. In terms of DFS, this has the potential to be a nice situation to exploit based on the handedness of the opposing starting pitcher.
The starting rotation remains unchanged with six talented arms. The biggest news this offseason is the health of Max Scherzer. Scherzer suffered a stress fracture in his right ring finger back in August, but it’s still bothering him to the point where he can’t throw fastballs yet (he’s basically turned into Tim Lincecum circa today). His Opening Day status is in question and if he were to miss time, I’d expect A.J. Cole to step into the rotation, with Vance Worley having an outside shot at the 5th starter spot.
If the Nationals have a flaw, it’s the bullpen. Closer Mark Melancon did not re-sign with the Nationals, leaving a huge hole in the Nats bullpen. In a surprise move, Blake Treinen (I believe he’s a judge on The Voice) has won the closer job. Typical Dusty Baker move. Bad bullpens who can’t hold leads are in an issue if they prevent the starting pitchers from getting the win, which is vital in a FanDuel format. I’m not saying avoid the Nationals’ starting pitchers, but you might want to log off your computer after they’ve exited the game and go do something else to take your mind off DFS, like bake cookies or make scented candles.
New York Mets – 2016 Record: 87-75
The Mets return in 2017 with a familiar looking roster as there are no new expected starters. Yoenis Cespedes was resigned this offseason to a four-year contract.
The biggest position battle, if you want to call it that, belongs at 3rd base. David Wright is being listed as the expected starter but let’s be honest with ourselves, Wright’s best days are behind him. Wright is returning from neck surgery and won’t see the field until mid-March (I had a joke lined up about him not seeing any action for the near future but I scrapped it because this is a family website). In his last two seasons, Wright has only played 38 and 37 games, respectively. I’m listing Jose Reyes as the projected opening day starter at 3rd base. It’s being reported that the Mets want to have Reyes lead off at least a few times a week, so this is worth monitoring.
I have Duda projected as the starting 1st baseman but there are reports he’s already dealing with back pain. If Duda starts the year on the DL, Jay Bruce would slide over to 1st and Michael Conforto would man RF for the Mets. Conforto was a mixed bag in 2016, blasting 12 homers in only 304 ABs but batting .220. He showed fairly large splits and struggled against lefties, hitting .104 against southpaws. Granted, it was a small sample (5 hits in 48 ABs), but Conforto only profiles as a nice DFS punt against righties until he shows he can hit lefties.
As for the pitching staff, Matt Harvey is reported to be healthy and confident after struggling last season to the tune of a 4.86 ERA and a 4-10 record. If he can regain his 2015 form, he makes for a great early season DFS target. Noah Syndergaard added 15-17 pounds of muscle this offseason and “plans to throw harder.” I’m not even sure if that’s possible but I’m expecting to read a “Travis d’Arnaud Loses Hand” headline in the New York Times later this year.
Zack Wheeler was working through minor shoulder discomfort but did enough to grab the #4 starter spot. Robert Gsellman is coming back from a partially torn labrum in his non-throwing arm but was named the #5 starter. Steven Matz is dealing with an elbow injury and will miss April. He should slide back into the rotation when he returns but given this is an elbow injury, they’ll probably be very cautious with their young stud pitcher.
In terms of the bullpen, Jeurys Familia returns to his Familiar role as the closer (sorry, couldn’t help myself). Familia was simply dominant last year with 51 saves, but his last pitch of the season was slapped over the fence for a 3-run homer by Conor Gillaspie to send the Mets out of the playoffs. I doubt this has any mental effect on his 2017 season, but it’s something I will monitor this Spring Training. Add that on top of the fact he’s dealing with a domestic violence case and there’s a chance Addison Reed opens the year as the closer if Familia is suspended by MLB or doesn’t have enough time to get into game shape due to his legal issues.
Miami Marlins – 2016 Record: 79-82
Similar to the Mets, the Marlins’ starters on offense all return. However, there are some huge question marks here. Let’s break it down:
Which Giancarlo Stanton will we get?
On April 4, 2016, Stanton’s price on DraftKings was $5,500. That’s understandable for a guy with the power Stanton has. But Stanton struggled, and struggled some more, to the point where it was June 17, 2016 and his price dropped all the way down to $2,800. Stanton was batting .210 with an OPS of only .740, and DraftKings was daring us to roster him (I’m pretty sure I didn’t even roster him at that point). Stanton was able to rebound somewhat by the end of the year, finishing with 27 homers, a .240 average, and an OPS of .815 (his career OPS is .896). It will be interesting to see if 2016 was just a down year or if Stanton will continue to struggle for another season.
Is Dee Gordon a Flash In the Pan?
Did you see my Flash Gordon joke above? Pretty good, huh? Gordon was suspended for 80 games last season for performance enhancing drugs. He finished the year with 30 stolen bases in 79 games, so the speed was not impacted. However, his OPS was .305, which is right at Billy Hamilton’s career OPS for a reference point. I have some serious doubts about Dee Gordon this year now that he’s likely off the steroids. The dude had 205 hits in 2015 – I have to assume he was juicing back then and the PEDs helped contribute. 2nd base is always a weak position but Gordon offers little else besides steals. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me thrice, then I start blaming my lineup seller.
Can Justin Bour be an everyday player?
All signs are that Bour will be the full-time starter despite being a career .223 hitter against lefties. Bour has 0 career home runs against lefties. Behind him on the depth chart is right-handed hitter (Mary) Tyler Moore. If I had to guess, I have to imagine we see a platoon situation sooner rather than later unless Bour has changed something this offseason.
Regarding the pitching staff, it will be the first full season without a true ace now that Jose Fernandez is gone. The Marlins tried to patch up their starting rotation by signing Edinson Volquez and Dan Straily. Honestly, this pitching staff looks really bad. Outside of Adam Conley and maybe Straily in the right matchup, I cannot see myself rostering any of these pitchers in DFS. Conley was extremely impressive last season, striking out 183 batters in 200.1 innings. Straily also adjusted well in transitioning to a full-time starter and should be stretched out this season to go deeper into ballgames.
Philadelphia Phillies – 2016 Record: 71-91
I’m going to admit something and I’m a bit embarrassed. Here it is – I love the Phillies for DFS. As I’m working on their depth chart, I can already imagine myself stacking this team to the point where DraftKings is going to send me one of those emails showing me my most rostered players and I know Maikel Franco is going to be on it.
I played a ton of Phillies stacks last season because they were so cheap despite the fact they were dead last in runs scored last season. Was that dumb on my part? Probably. But hear me out. The Phillies upgraded their corner outfielders by signing Howie Kendrick Lamar and Michael Saunders. Kendrick is a tough out who is great at making contact, and Saunders is coming off a 24 homer season. They are replacing Roman Quinn Medicine Woman and Aaron Altherr, so this is a big upgrade.
With the departure of Ryan Howard, Tommy Joseph is being given a chance to be the full-time 1st baseman after blasting 21 homers in 107 games last year. I’m from the Bay Area and know Joseph is no slouch. He was a top prospect for the Giants before heading to the Phillies as the centerpiece in the Hunter Pence trade, so the dude is legit. Early indications are that Joseph will bat third and Maikel Franco will bat cleanup. Franco himself hit 25 home runs last season and the two make for a solid middle-of-the-lineup combo.
As for the rest of the lineup, Cesar Hernandez enjoyed a breakout season and added 15 pounds of muscle this offseason. He says he wants to steal 30 bases after swiping 17 in 30 attempts last year, so he’s someone I’m looking to target for DFS if he gets the green light and can improve his success rate. I also love Freddy Galvis, who quietly had a 20 HR / 17 ST season despite having a salary no more than $3,300 on DraftKings in 2016. Lastly, the Phillies gave Rule 5 stud Odubel Herrera a 5-year extension this offseason after he went for 15 HR / 25 ST and scored 87 runs. With a better offense behind him, I could see him potentially approaching 100 runs in 2017. Call me crazy, but a Herrera-Hernandez-Joseph-Franco-Galvis stack could win someone a GPP (If you win, I want all the credit. If you lose, that’s your fault).
Regarding the pitching staff, the Phillies traded for superstar Clay Buchholz this offseason to bolster the rotation. Aaron Nola is reported to be feeling 100% healthy after a UCL and flexor sprain late last year. He struck out 121 batters in only 111 innings, so he’s a great target on DraftKings. Vincent Velasquez also finished the year strong and ended up striking out 152 over 131 innings, including 3 games with double-digit strikeouts. The Phillies feature one of the best, young staffs in my opinion and make for great DFS targets.
Jeanmar Gomez has been named the closer. The Phillies also have Joaquin Benoit. There were thoughts Benoit could begin as the closer to boost his value and then dealt before the trade deadline, but that’s no longer the case. This bullpen is fairly strong, which is great news for the starters in terms of DFS.
Atlanta Braves – 2016 Record: 68-93
I’m going to keep this brief because your time is valuable – the Braves are still awful. I could probably stop there. Their offseason additions include 35-year old Brandon Phillips, 43-year old Bartolo Colon, 42-year old R.A. Dickey, and 30-year old Jaime Garcia, who has the health of a senior citizen.
Outside of Freddie Freeman, Matt Kemp (who is being reported as coming into spring training having lost weight), and Julio Teheran, you really shouldn’t be playing any of these guys unless they are at Coors. Even top-prospect Dansby Swanson isn’t very exciting from a DFS-perspective. He went 3 HR / 3 ST over 38 games as a rookie. Projected out over a full-season and that’s only around 12 HR / 12 ST. If there’s anything to take away about the Braves, it’s probably that you want to play the opposing team’s players against them.
Thanks for reading!