FREE PREMIUM: STLCards' Covering The Bases - Sunday, May 15th
Happy Sunday, Grinders! We have an interesting Sunday slate on tap today, with eight games on the main slate on DK. FanDuel has added the BOS/TEX game at 1:35 and the KC/COL game at 2:10 to make it a ten game slate over there.
I’m often critical of the way FanDuel sets up their slates, but I have to say that they got it right today. The DK slate offers very little to love for offense, while the four additional teams available on FD all have top-end offensive potential. Your lineups are going to look drastically different according to what site you are playing. It really only affects the approach to offense, so I’ll touch on it more when we get to the bats.
Let’s get to work!
Sunday Pitching – Four? Top Options
Justin Verlander vs. Nationals
Brandon Woodruff vs. Marlins
Alek Manoah vs. Rays
Nestor Cortes vs. White Sox
We have some interesting top arms on the slate today, making this a fun day to pay up for pitcher. Let’s take a peek at the 2022 numbers to date for all of these top arms.
Verlander – 1.55 ERA, 3.26 xFIP, 25% K, 4% BB, 33% hard contact, 9% SwStr
Woodruff – 5.97 ERA, 3.35 xFIP, 29% K, 8% BB, 28% hard contact, 13% SwStr
Manoah – 1.75 ERA, 3.72 xFIP, 25% K, 6% BB, 19% hard contact, 13% SwStr
Cortes – 1.41 ERA, 2.71 xFIP, 34% K, 9% BB, 24% hard contact, 10% SwStr
Any time he pitches, Verlander basically vaults to the top of the list. He almost always goes deep into games by virtue of the fact that he rarely walks anyone. His strikeouts and swinging strikes have dipped a bit this season, but we can attribute some of that to sample size variance. The Astros could use some innings out of him after Javier didn’t make it out of the fourth inning yesterday, and Verlander is always game to play the stopper role. He’s your SP1 in a favorable matchup against a Nationals team that offers nothing to fear outside of Juan Soto.
Don’t be fooled by the poor surface numbers for Brandon Woodruff. The command is a bit of a concern, but he has been victimized by a BABIP that is almost 60 points above his career mark. If everyone is going to play Verlander ahead of him, I really like Woodruff as a GPP pivot here.
The other two options are also viable, though it is odd to see Cortes grouped in an ace tier. I am likely going to be off Cortes today now that his DFS price tags have risen. His strikeouts are not going to sustain at a 34% clip with his swinging strike rate, and variance is going to hit sooner or later. If you’re looking for a third option in this range, give me Manoah. The budding Toronto ace does a great job of limiting hard contact and gets a matchup against a Rays team that strikes out at the tenth highest rate in baseball this year.
I’ll rank this group as Verlander > Woodruff > Manoah > Cortes today, but all four are solid pitchers.
Sunday Pitching – Cheaper Stuff
Joe Ryan vs. Guardians
Michael Kopech vs. Yankees
Carlos Carrasco vs. Mariners
Robbie Ray vs. Mets
Tarik Skubal vs. Orioles
This is a very strong group of secondary arms. A lot of them would have been in consideration for the overall SP1 on last night’s slate. It’s a perfect example of how slate context is so important to how we build our lineups. Again, here is a look at the 2022 data for these pitchers:
Ryan – 2.56 ERA, 4.33 xFIP, 24% K, 9% BB, 26% hard contact, 12% SwStr
Kopech – 0.93 ERA, 4.27 xFIP, 26% K, 11% BB, 20% hard contact, 11% SwStr
Carrasco – 3.19 ERA, 3.30 xFIP, 22% K, 4% BB, 23% hard contact, 13% SwStr
Ray – 4.22 ERA, 3.91 xFIP, 24% K, 9% BB, 32% hard contact, 13% SwStr
Skubal – 2.94 ERA, 2.88 xFIP, 25% K, 4%% BB, 25% hard contact, 12% SwStr
Here’s one important note about this group: Tarik Skubal has the lowest xFIP and walk rate of the group. He also gets to face the Orioles. He’s also priced at $6,000 on DraftKings for some reason. He’s your clear-cut SP2 on DK.
As for the rest of the group, Kopech and Ray are your risk/reward, “electric stuff with upside” pitchers. Kopech is clearly not going to keep his 0.93 ERA, and his walk rate is north of 10%. Both of these pitchers have extreme risk in tough matchups against the strong New York teams. If I’m taking one of them today, it will be Ray. He will be in my GPP mix in the hopes that he finds that 10 strikeout upside here.
Ryan and Carrasco are the other safer options in this group, with Ryan facing the Guardians and Carrasco facing the Mariners. I don’t have a strong take on either pitcher and will likely be even with the field in multi-entry GPP builds. If I had to choose one, I’d give Ryan the slightly higher ceiling.
In short, Skubal is far and away my preferred option on DK from this group. You can even make a case for him on FD/Yahoo even though he’s priced up on those sites. Ray is my favorite GPP pitcher on FD from this tier.
Sunday Offense
The FanDuel Offenses
Rockies vs. Daniel Lynch
Royals vs. Austin Gomber
Red Sox vs. Martin Perez
Rangers vs. Austin Davis
If you are only playing on DraftKings today, you can skip right on past this section. You can make a case that these are four of the top offenses on FD, so you need to read this part if you are playing on FD (or Yahoo). Unfortunately, it makes the DK slate much more difficult to peg for bats. FD got the slate build right today.
The Rockies check in with the highest team total on the FD slate, though both they and the Royals sit north of five runs. Both are facing inconsistent lefties, as Austin Gomber takes the ball for Colorado while Daniel Lynch goes for Kansas City. I much prefer the Colorado side of this game, as their offense lines up much better against left-handed pitching. Outside of Salvador Perez — who is obviously a great play — the Royals generally struggle against lefties. As for the Rockies, Jose Iglesias, Connor Joe, Randal Grichuk, and C.J. Cron ALL have .400+ wOBA marks against lefties this season. The sample size remains somewhat small, but it’s easy to see a path to success for the Rockies here. Get some exposure to their RHBs in this spot.
Boston finally exploded for some runs last night, and we will see if they can keep it going against Martin Perez today. Perez has solid surface numbers this year, but he has benefited from an abnormally low .258 BABIP. That’s not going to last, and Perez is not a high strikeout pitcher. He has always had issues with hard contact and home runs against RHBs, so we have some spots to target here. J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, and Trevor Story are your high upside power bats from the right side, while Bobby Dalbec and Kike Hernandez are solid values on both FD and Yahoo today.
I don’t have as much interest in the Rangers against Austin Davis and what might amount to a bullpen game for the Rangers. Marcus Semien is still cheap on FD but is 0-for-24 in his last six games. You can always target Corey Seager at shortstop, but I prefer Bogaerts on the other side. You can certainly stack up Texas as a contrarian GPP stack, but that’s about all the exposure I will have to them today.
The All Site Offenses
Astros vs. Patrick Corbin
Blue Jays vs. Jeffrey Springs
Twins vs. Triston McKenzie
Tigers vs. Tyler Wells
Brewers vs. Elieser Hernandez
This isn’t a spectacular group of offenses, but it’s what you have if you are playing on DK today. Only one team on the DK slate has an implied team total above 4.25 runs.
That team is the Houston Astros.
The Astros face off against the ghost of Patrick Corbin today, and they are far and away your top offense on the DK slate. Corbin has an ERA north of six with a below average strikeout rate and an 11% walk rate so far in 2022. His struggles date all the way back to the beginning of last year. He’s simply not good any more. Even lefties are causing problems, as he has a 23% walk rate against lefties this year with ugly overall numbers (though the sample size is small). Righties are clearly going to cause him problems, and you can vault Jose Altuve (assuming he returns to the lineup today) and Alex Bregman to the top of the list of bats on the slate. Even Yordan Alvarez from the left side is very much in play. Jose Siri and Chas McCormick are worthwhile value plays. You can play anyone you want from this offense.
Toronto doesn’t profile quite as well against Jeffrey Springs and the Rays, but their offense is one of the only others on the DK slate that we can truly consider explosive. The Jays haven’t faced many lefties so far in 2022, so we don’t have much of a sample size here. Santiago Espinal has oddly elite numbers in his small sample, while George Springer and Bo Bichette have also hit lefties well. I do like Springer quite a bit, but we need to see if he is back in the lineup after he sat yesterday with a sprained ankle. Of course, Vladimir Guerrero is always capable of a two HR day.
UPDATE – Corey Kluber might be starting for the Rays today. It doesn’t change much other than the fact that he obviously throws from the right side. He’s not a massive strikeout pitcher, though he rarely gets blown up. Toronto has struggled a bit against RHP this year, with Guerrero being the only hitter with a .360+ wOBA against RHP in 2022.
Triston McKenzie is a talented young pitcher, but he has always been inconsistent with command issues. The Twins have to be considered as a high upside unit given the nature of this slate. Byron Buxton is always a top play, while Max Kepler is very affordable at $3,600 on DK. Jorge Polanco and Luis Arraez aren’t high profile names, but they both own .390+ wOBA marks against RHP this year. Outside of Houston, this could be my favorite overall stack on DK given the command issues that McKenzie often has, though McKenzie has admittedly been better of late with just three total walks over his last three starts.
Detroit is never a fun team to target. Their numbers are never going to stand out offensively, but they have a friendly matchup against Tyler Wells and the Baltimore bullpen. Javier Baez and Austin Meadows project as the top plays, while basically everyone else is priced as a value. Unfortunately, not a single Detroit hitter has a .350+ wOBA or .150+ ISO against RHP this year. This offense just isn’t very good, but I’m fine with any one-off values if you need it and someone draws a top five batting order spot.
There haven’t been many offenses that have been more boom or bust than the Brewers this year. They look amazing at times and completely hopeless at other times. Elieser Hernandez is not a gas can, so my interest is relatively limited here. It’s only a real discussion because of how little the DK slate offers for bats. Christian Yelich and Willy Adames bring the pop, as both have .240+ ISO marks against RHP this year. Rowdy Tellez also offers a lot of power, but he’s somehow been priced up to… $5,500? on DK. What? The entire Milwaukee offense is overpriced on DK, and that just makes this a problem. They aren’t necessary on FD/Yahoo with how deep the slate is, and they’ve been priced up to Saks Fifth Avenue levels on DK. Outside of Yelich and Adames… Meh.
The Maybe A Stack Offenses
Yankees vs. Michael Kopech
Pirates vs. Hunter Greene
Reds vs. Jose Quintana
Michael Kopech is very talented, but he also walks a ton of batters. The Yankees are 24-9 and have a very high upside offense. The Yankees could struggle here, but they could also go nuts if Kopech’s command problems surface. I really like their power hitters as one-offs and/or the full stack here. This is a rare case where the NYY offense will not be chalky, and they always bring slate breaking upside.
The CIN/PIT game is a giant wild card on this slate, and the game might largely get ignored. Hunter Greene may throw 100+ MPH, but MLB level hitters have shown that they can square up his fastball. Bryan Reynolds, Daniel Vogelbach, and Ke’Bryan Hayes are worthwhile power targets. The Reds have started to get priced up a little bit, so I don’t have a ton of interest in them against Jose Quintana, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they had a sneaky good game in this spot.
All told, these teams are best utilized as full stacks or for one-off power targets.
Late Afternoon / Yahoo Notes
As usual, we have the later afternoon and Sunday night game on the Yahoo slate. Here are some quick notes if you are playing those slates:
1) There’s no real need to reach for any other pitchers, as the early games give us plenty of arms. Carlos Rodon and Aaron Nola are the strongest pitchers in these games, but Rodon has to face a St. Louis team that is better against lefties, while Nola has to face the Dodgers. Rodon is in the GPP mix, but I still prefer both Verlander and Woodruff on the high end.
2) The CHC/ARI game could feature some offense given a nine run total and two underwhelming pitchers. The Cubs throw lefty Justin Steele, so fire up the RHBs for Arizona. Christian Walker is one of the better power targets available in these games. The Cubs get to face off against Humberto Castellanos. I like Willson Contreras as a catcher option, while Rafael Ortega is a nice value at $11 on Yahoo.
3) The Phillies have been raking it against a good Dodgers pitching staff this weekend, as they will look to complete a shocking four game road sweep today. The Phillies have 29 runs in the first three games, and they get to face Michael Grove today. Grove is a strong prospect but will be making his MLB debut. Feel free to use any of the red hot PHI bats here.
Sunday Slate Recap
Enjoy your Sunday! Here’s a quick recap of what I wrote above, in case you need a brief overview.
Pitcher Ranks
1) Justin Verlander
2) Brandon Woodruff
3) Tarik Skubal (on DK only; downgrade on other sites)
4) Alek Manoah
5) Robbie Ray
6) Joe Ryan
7) Carlos Carrasco
8) Nestor Cortes
Top Offense Stacks
1) COL (FD only)
2) HOU
3) KC (FD only)
4) BOS (FD only)
5) MIN
6) DET
7) TOR
8) TEX (FD only)
Top Spend Up Bats – Christian Yelich, Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Willy Adames, Vladimir Guerrero, Salvador Perez (FD/Y only), C.J. Cron (FD/Y only)
Top Mid-Range Bats – George Springer, Daniel Vogelbach, Javier Baez, Austin Meadows, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds, Whit Merrifield (FD/Y only)
Top Value Bats – Max Kepler, Jose Siri, Chas McCormick, Myles Straw, Miguel Cabrera, Kike Hernandez (FD/Y only), Bobby Dalbec (FD/Y only)
Good luck today!