MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, April 5th
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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Stackability Rating System:
GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.
Toronto at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET
| Toronto | Baltimore | ||||||||
 | J.A. Happ |  | Dylan Bundy | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TOR -110 | 9.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016) | 0.287 | 35.8% | 7.4% | 17.9% | SP vs. Left (2016) | 0.323 | 28.1% | 7.4% | 18.9% |
| SP vs. Right (2016) | 0.292 | 30.4% | 7.6% | 21.1% | SP vs. Right (2016) | 0.336 | 27.8% | 10.4% | 25.2% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| J.A. Happ | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $8,400 | Salary: | $7,000 | Salary: | $14,000 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 9 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 17 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 14 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 32 | 4.28 | 3.18 | 20.5% | 7.5% | 42.5% | 35.5% | 31.6% | |
This is the first game of the main slate tonight on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Happ is coming off of a season where he was, shall we say, a bit lucky. His SIERA was a full run higher than his ERA, largely in part thanks to a .268 BABIP. I expect Happ to regress a bit this season and he draws a daunting matchup right out of the gate. The Orioles have one of the most potent offenses in baseball. While the Orioles do strikeout at a high rate, Happ is a deep tournament flier at best.
| Dylan Bundy | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $7,000 | Salary: | $6,800 | Salary: | $13,600 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 25 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 19 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 15 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 14 | 4.23 | 4.02 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 35.9% | 42.2% | 28.0% | |
Bundy had an up and down rookie season, but he really started to figure things out toward the end. He finished the year with a 4.23 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 21.9%. He is a fly-ball pitcher, but he limited his hard contact rate to 28%. It’s always hard to predict how pitchers will fare in their sophomore season, so it doesn’t hurt to take and wait and see approach. With a matchup against the Blue Jays, Bundy probably shouldn’t have been on your radar anyway.
Batter Grind Down
Toronto
The Blue Jays are one of the best offenses in baseball. Despite hitting for a ton of power, they actually don’t strikeout as often as some other home run hitting teams like the Orioles or Astros. Their matchup against Dylan Bundy looks mediocre on paper, but the run total for the game is set at nine runs. I prefer targeting the power bats of Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista (too cheap on FD), and Kendrys Morales (42.3% hard contact rate against righties last season).
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | FD Pos. | FD Salary | DK Pos. | DK Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Devon Travis | RIGHT | 0.360 | 0.171 | 30.7% | 6.0% | 20.2% | 2B | $2,400 | 2B | $4,500 |
| 2 | Josh Donaldson | RIGHT | 0.405 | 0.272 | 41.0% | 14.8% | 17.8% | 3B | $3,900 | 3B | $5,100 |
| 3 | Jose Bautista | RIGHT | 0.361 | 0.220 | 41.0% | 17.7% | 21.1% | OF | $3,400 | OF | $5,000 |
| 4 | Kendrys Morales | SWITCH | 0.314 | 0.191 | 42.3% | 9.0% | 19.4% | 1B | $2,900 | 1B | $4,300 |
| 5 | Troy Tulowitzki | RIGHT | 0.326 | 0.196 | 34.5% | 7.3% | 18.7% | SS | $2,800 | SS | $4,600 |
| 6 | Russell Martin | RIGHT | 0.325 | 0.173 | 29.9% | 11.1% | 27.1% | C | $2,600 | C | $4,200 |
| 7 | Steve Pearce | RIGHT | 0.345 | 0.159 | 30.2% | 10.1% | 16.4% | OF | $3,000 | 1B/2B | $4,000 |
| 8 | Kevin Pillar | RIGHT | 0.291 | 0.104 | 25.4% | 4.8% | 15.4% | OF | $2,300 | OF | $3,900 |
| 9 | Ezequiel Carrera | LEFT | 0.282 | 0.102 | 25.5% | 9.5% | 22.8% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,300 |
Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista (FD), Kendrys Morales (FD)
Secondary Plays – Jose Bautista (DK), Kendrys Morales (DK), Devon Travis, Troy Tulowitzki
Stackability – YELLOW
Baltimore
If I could only load up on one of these two offenses, it would be the Orioles. They are playing at home and I’m not scared off by a matchup against J.A. Happ. The issue with the Orioles is that they don’t have many right-handed hitters that hit left-handed pitching well. Adam Jones and Mark Trumbo have historically hit southpaws well, but both had a wOBA under .260 last season. Rather than stacking Baltimore, I would rather target a few bats specifically – Joey Rickard, Manny Machado, and Welington Castillo.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | FD Pos. | FD Salary | DK Pos. | DK Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joey Rickard | RIGHT | 0.370 | 0.181 | 30.4% | 7.8% | 15.6% | OF | $2,000 | OF | $3,000 |
| 2 | Adam Jones | RIGHT | 0.254 | 0.095 | 29.8% | 6.3% | 21.5% | OF | $3,500 | OF | $4,300 |
| 3 | Manny Machado | RIGHT | 0.388 | 0.197 | 37.0% | 8.9% | 14.9% | 3B | $3,900 | 3B/SS | $5,100 |
| 4 | Mark Trumbo | RIGHT | 0.257 | 0.212 | 37.5% | 6.0% | 26.5% | OF | $3,700 | 1B/OF | $4,400 |
| 5 | Chris Davis | LEFT | 0.312 | 0.182 | 34.8% | 11.4% | 31.8% | 1B | $3,200 | 1B/OF | $4,500 |
| 6 | Jonathan Schoop | RIGHT | 0.293 | 0.169 | 20.9% | 3.8% | 25.0% | 2B | $2,500 | 2B/3B | $3,800 |
| 7 | Welington Castillo | RIGHT | 0.367 | 0.243 | 53.5% | 9.4% | 22.8% | C | $2,800 | C | $3,700 |
| 8 | Craig Gentry | RIGHT | 0.222 | 0.038 | 8.3% | 9.7% | 9.7% | OF | $2,800 | ||
| 9 | J.J. Hardy | RIGHT | 0.329 | 0.183 | 43.5% | 9.3% | 12.7% | SS | $2,400 | SS | $3,100 |
Elite Plays – Manny Machado, Welington Castillo
Secondary Plays – Joey Rickard, Mark Trumbo
Stackability – YELLOW
Miami at Washington – 7:05 PM ET
| Miami | Washington | ||||||||
 | Dan Straily |  | Tanner Roark | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| WAS -160 | 8.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016) | 0.290 | 29.4% | 12.9% | 19.3% | SP vs. Left (2016) | 0.281 | 29.2% | 10.9% | 18.8% |
| SP vs. Right (2016) | 0.322 | 34.4% | 6.2% | 21.4% | SP vs. Right (2016) | 0.283 | 20.0% | 6.4% | 21.3% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Dan Straily | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $7,200 | Salary: | $6,600 | Salary: | $13,200 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 20 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 22 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 17 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 31 | 4.67 | 3.76 | 20.5% | 9.2% | 32.0% | 48.0% | 32.2% | |
Dan Straily does not fit the mold of what we are looking for in our starting pitcher. His strikeout rate was terrible last season, but he had a 4.67 SIERA with a high walk rate and a high hard contact rate. Straily is also a fly-ball pitcher, which typically isn’t good when it comes to allowing home runs. He is an easy fade on the road against a stacked Nationals’ offense.
| Tanner Roark | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $8,600 | Salary: | $8,200 | Salary: | $15,900 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 7 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 8 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 6 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 33 | 4.32 | 2.83 | 20.1% | 8.5% | 48.7% | 31.2% | 24.3% | |
Roark is one of those pitchers that I rarely ever use in DFS. It’s not that he isn’t a good pitcher, I just always find myself going with riskier pitchers that have more strikeout upside. Roark’s strikeout rate of 20.1% in 2016 was a career best and his SIERA ended up being a full run and a half higher than his ERA. We can expect some regression this season, at least in terms of his ERA. Roark isn’t a bad play against the Marlins, but he is a little too expensive for what he brings to the table.
Batter Grind Down
Miami
The Marlins have one of the lowest implied run totals in the slate. Even though Tanner Roark isn’t an elite strikeout pitcher, he has a high ground ball rate and a low hard contact rate. He held both left and right-handed hitters under a .285 wOBA last season. If you are targeting any Marlins’ hitters, use them as one-off plays. Dee Gordon (SB upside) and Giancarlo Stanton (HR upside) are your best bet in tournaments.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | FD Pos. | FD Salary | DK Pos. | DK Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dee Gordon | LEFT | 0.286 | 0.075 | 17.5% | 5.6% | 15.7% | 2B | $3,000 | 2B | $4,200 |
| 2 | J.T. Realmuto | RIGHT | 0.348 | 0.123 | 30.9% | 5.4% | 17.0% | C | $2,300 | C | $3,500 |
| 3 | Christian Yelich | LEFT | 0.386 | 0.215 | 41.7% | 12.7% | 19.9% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $4,300 |
| 4 | Giancarlo Stanton | RIGHT | 0.331 | 0.237 | 39.4% | 9.5% | 30.2% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $4,600 |
| 5 | Justin Bour | LEFT | 0.356 | 0.228 | 36.4% | 13.1% | 15.1% | 1B | $2,700 | 1B | $3,200 |
| 6 | Marcell Ozuna | RIGHT | 0.315 | 0.154 | 34.2% | 7.5% | 19.2% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,600 |
| 7 | Derek Dietrich | LEFT | 0.370 | 0.157 | 29.3% | 8.8% | 20.0% | 2B | $2,300 | 2B/3B | $3,100 |
| 8 | Adeiny Hechavarria | RIGHT | 0.258 | 0.071 | 30.4% | 5.4% | 11.7% | SS | $2,000 | 3B/SS | $2,600 |
| 9 | Dan Straily | RIGHT | 0.038 | 0.000 | 10.5% | 2.0% | 60.8% | P | $7,200 | P | $6,600 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Dee Gordon, Giancarlo Stanton
Stackability – RED
Washington
There aren’t a ton of times outside of Coors Field where I love stacking NL teams playing at home. The ballparks generally aren’t hitter-friendly and when they are winning, we don’t get those coveted ninth inning at bats. I’m liking the idea of a Nationals’ stack here though, as Dan Straily allowed a 34% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters last season. He also walked 12.9% of the lefties that he faced, so we could see a lot of baserunners on board. If the Nationals can hit a few home runs, we are in business.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | FD Pos. | FD Salary | DK Pos. | DK Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trea Turner | RIGHT | 0.413 | 0.258 | 33.0% | 4.6% | 17.8% | SS | $3,700 | OF/SS | $5,000 |
| 2 | Adam Eaton | LEFT | 0.350 | 0.166 | 31.9% | 8.5% | 17.0% | OF | $3,500 | OF | $4,400 |
| 3 | Bryce Harper | LEFT | 0.352 | 0.192 | 35.0% | 18.7% | 15.4% | OF | $4,600 | OF | $5,000 |
| 4 | Daniel Murphy | LEFT | 0.419 | 0.261 | 41.1% | 6.4% | 9.5% | 2B | $3,500 | 2B/3B | $4,500 |
| 5 | Ryan Zimmerman | RIGHT | 0.273 | 0.140 | 33.2% | 4.9% | 24.2% | 1B | $2,400 | 1B/3B | $3,400 |
| 6 | Jayson Werth | RIGHT | 0.296 | 0.136 | 32.7% | 11.4% | 24.1% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,600 |
| 7 | Stephen Drew | LEFT | 0.378 | 0.283 | 42.6% | 10.1% | 20.3% | SS | $2,200 | 2B/SS | $2,800 |
| 8 | Matt Wieters | SWITCH | 0.315 | 0.182 | 32.6% | 6.0% | 17.5% | C | $2,900 | C | $3,200 |
| 9 | Tanner Roark | RIGHT | 0.165 | 0.000 | 7.7% | 6.8% | 27.1% | P | $8,600 | P | $8,200 |
Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Adam Eaton, Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy
Secondary Plays – Stephen Drew
Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN
Atlanta at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET
| Atlanta | NY Mets | ||||||||
 | Bartolo Colon |  | Jacob deGrom | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| NYM -200 | 7.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016) | 0.335 | 37.3% | 5.3% | 15.4% | SP vs. Left (2016) | 0.273 | 29.0% | 6.1% | 22.5% |
| SP vs. Right (2016) | 0.286 | 33.4% | 2.8% | 17.0% | SP vs. Right (2016) | 0.323 | 33.8% | 5.8% | 24.9% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Bartolo Colon | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $7,500 | Salary: | $6,700 | Salary: | $13,200 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 18 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 20 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 17 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 33 | 4.37 | 3.43 | 16.2% | 4.1% | 43.2% | 34.1% | 35.4% | |
In his first start with the Braves, Colon gets to face his former team in his former ballpark. While I always tune in to watch Colon pitch (and hit), I rarely use him in DFS. He has one of the lowest strikeout rates of any starting pitcher in baseball and eventually Father Time is going to catch up with him. His struggles against left-handed hitters may bite him against the Mets.
| Jacob deGrom | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $9,800 | Salary: | $10,600 | Salary: | $20,400 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 2 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 3 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 3 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 24 | 3.66 | 3.04 | 23.7% | 6.0% | 45.6% | 31.7% | 31.3% | |
DeGrom’s velocity has been great in the Spring, so many are predicting him to have a season much like he had in 2015. It’s not like he was any kind of slouch last year, posting a 3.66 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23.7%, but there is room for improvement. He is one of the top pitching options in this slate, as he gets to face a powerless Braves’ offense at home in the pitcher-friendly Citi Field. He has massive strikeout upside and he should get plenty of run support.
Batter Grind Down
Atlanta
The Braves are an easy fade as a whole in this slate. There are 11 other games to choose hitters from in the main slate, so there is no reason to target hitters against Jacob deGrom, who seems poised for a big season. Freddie Freeman could hit a solo shot here, but team scoring is important in DFS and I just don’t see the Braves giving him many RBI opportunities.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | FD Pos. | FD Salary | DK Pos. | DK Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ender Inciarte | LEFT | 0.315 | 0.099 | 25.7% | 8.4% | 12.6% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,400 |
| 2 | Dansby Swanson | RIGHT | 0.321 | 0.107 | 34.9% | 8.7% | 23.0% | SS | $2,700 | SS | $3,000 |
| 3 | Freddie Freeman | LEFT | 0.410 | 0.293 | 43.3% | 14.6% | 22.9% | 1B | $3,600 | 1B | $4,100 |
| 4 | Matt Kemp | RIGHT | 0.319 | 0.211 | 36.4% | 5.3% | 24.1% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $3,700 |
| 5 | Nick Markakis | LEFT | 0.341 | 0.156 | 33.1% | 11.8% | 15.3% | OF | $2,700 | OF | $3,200 |
| 6 | Brandon Phillips | RIGHT | 0.327 | 0.128 | 28.2% | 3.1% | 11.6% | 2B | $2,600 | 2B | $3,100 |
| 7 | Adonis Garcia | RIGHT | 0.300 | 0.145 | 29.8% | 3.2% | 17.3% | 3B | $2,400 | 3B/OF | $3,100 |
| 8 | Tyler Flowers | RIGHT | 0.339 | 0.154 | 46.1% | 7.5% | 29.4% | C | $2,300 | C | $2,700 |
| 9 | Bartolo Colon | RIGHT | 0.101 | 0.098 | 11.8% | 0.0% | 61.4% | P | $7,500 | P | $6,700 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman
Stackability – RED
NY Mets
Bartolo Colon can still hit his spots and hold down a lineup, but there are a lot of reasons why we like to pick on him. He has a below-average strikeout rate and he gives up a 33% hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. His biggest struggle is against lefties, as he allowed a .335 wOBA to them last season. Six of the first seven batters in the Mets’ lineup can hit from the left side of the plate.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | FD Pos. | FD Salary | DK Pos. | DK Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jose Reyes | SWITCH | 0.288 | 0.132 | 26.2% | 7.2% | 18.9% | 3B | $2,700 | 3B/SS | $3,900 |
| 2 | Asdrubal Cabrera | SWITCH | 0.342 | 0.208 | 35.8% | 6.5% | 18.5% | SS | $3,000 | SS | $3,700 |
| 3 | Yoenis Cespedes | RIGHT | 0.352 | 0.244 | 37.4% | 7.3% | 20.3% | OF | $3,700 | OF | $4,300 |
| 4 | Curtis Granderson | LEFT | 0.349 | 0.238 | 37.3% | 13.1% | 19.1% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,800 |
| 5 | Neil Walker | SWITCH | 0.329 | 0.167 | 34.3% | 9.2% | 20.1% | 2B | $2,600 | 2B | $3,600 |
| 6 | Jay Bruce | LEFT | 0.361 | 0.283 | 40.2% | 8.6% | 20.7% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,600 |
| 7 | Lucas Duda | LEFT | 0.328 | 0.195 | 37.1% | 9.3% | 20.0% | 1B | $2,700 | 1B | $3,600 |
| 8 | Rene Rivera | RIGHT | 0.241 | 0.100 | 29.1% | 5.5% | 26.1% | C | $2,100 | C | $2,300 |
| 9 | Jacob deGrom | RIGHT | 0.220 | 0.031 | 18.8% | 7.7% | 10.3% | P | $9,800 | P | $10,600 |