NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 10
For those of you who read last week’s article and are looking for an update, I ended up going all-in on the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Dallas Cowboys game like I said I would. I did back down some off of Alex Smith, instead splitting my 150 lineups evenly between Smith and Dak Prescott. I had heavy exposure to a lot of the players who did well and were listed in last week’s article, like Todd Gurley, Adrian Peterson, Christian McCaffrey, Demaryius Thomas, Travis Kelce, etc., as well as a few guys I hopped on late like Chris Ivory and Trey Burton.
Unfortunately, I made two glaring errors: 1) I started off the week wanting heavy exposure to Alvin Kamara, but later pivoted to Mark Ingram. 2) I had Dez Bryant on nearly 80 percent of my lineups and T.Y. Hilton (game theory fade) on less than 10 percent of lineups. If I had replaced Bryant with Hilton on just one or two few specific lineups, it could have easily been a six-figure day for me. Honestly, it’s a pretty sore subject and I’m not sure why you brought it up.
Moving forward, this article should continue to be published on Fridays by the early afternoon. I’ll do my best to update and possibly add players up until early Sunday morning.
I’m still shook from Week 9, so apologies in advance for the few sections where I was unable to take a hard stance.
Anyway, here’s how I’m approaching this slate:
Note 1: All references to expected fantasy points can be explained here.
Note 2: All references to team fantasy points allowed over expectation are based on this chart.
Note 3: All numbers in parentheses refer to a player’s salary rank on each site.
Quarterbacks
Matthew Stafford [DK: QB4, FD: QB6] – Stafford has 22.9, 21.0, and 25.4 DraftKings fantasy points over his past three games, and draws the single-best matchup for any quarterback this week. Cleveland is the quintessential “pass funnel” defense this season, ranking second-best in running back yards per carry allowed (2.91) and second-worst in opposing passer rating (103.0). The Browns rank last in pressures per dropback, despite leading the league in blitzes per dropback — which is really hard to do. The Browns also rank last in fantasy points per game allowed over expectation and fourth-worst in fantasy points per dropback allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco, Case Keenum, and Jacoby Brissett all had their best or second-best weeks of the season against Cleveland, with only a hobbled Marcus Mariota failing to score multiple touchdowns against them.
Stacking Options: The only tough part about playing Stafford this week is figuring out who to pair him with. Over the past month of the season, Marvin Jones leads all wide receivers in air yards per game (177.7), targets per game (12.0), targets inside the 10-yard line per game (1.3), targets inside the 20-yard line per game (2.7), end-zone targets per game (3.3), expected fantasy points per game (26.1), and actual fantasy points per game (23.4). That’s borderline unfadeable volume at his current price-tag, though he does draw a very difficult matchup in shadow coverage against our No. 2-graded cornerback Jason McCourty. Golden Tate draws Briean Boddy-Calhoun who grades out 12th-best among cornerbacks this season, though Cleveland is still allowing the most fantasy points per target to opposing slot wide receivers this year. Cleveland is also allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends over the past two seasons, but Eric Ebron and Darren Fells rank just 31st and 32nd, respectively, in fantasy points per game. Theo Riddick is more of a reach, but a decent low-percentage stacking option. I’m quietly rooting for an Ameer Abdullah benching, following his two-fumble performance last week, so that Stafford uses Riddick as an extension of the running game via the pass for some quick and easy fantasy points.
Other – I have a three-way tie between Ryan Fitzpatrick, Eli Manning, and Josh McCown as my top value quarterback of the week. As of right I’m splitting ownership, but am hoping to take a stand and update with my preferred option by Sunday… I think Drew Brees could go overlooked in a game Vegas thinks Buffalo keeps things close (favored by 3.0), after playing more conservative in six-straight two-score victories… A strong case could be made for Dak Prescott as well, at what could be lower ownership than typical, as he’s only the eighth-most tagged quarterback on FanShare this week. Prescott has easily been the league’s most fantasy-efficient quarterback over the past two seasons, with a DFS player’s only week-to-week concern being sporadic usage on a run-first team. However, this would be the week to play him if you think Dallas might loosen the reigns on Prescott, now without star running back Ezekiel Elliott. If not for that reason, this is also the highest over/under of the week, Dallas’ first game of the season as underdogs, and Vegas thinks this should be a shootout (spread within +/- 3.0). Also, I think I’d actually prefer it if Dez Bryant sits, making Prescott’s salary more palatable as an easy pairing with Terrance Williams (who averages 12.2 fantasy points per game without Bryant and scored 23.1 fantasy points last week). Prescott also offers an unrivaled floor, finishing as QB1 in nine of his last 10 games, while also flashing a decent ceiling, finishing top-three among quarterbacks in three of his last four games…
Running Backs
Expensive Running Backs – This week is absolutely brutal when it comes to trying to pinpoint one expensive running back to like. Seemingly all of the best options are in great spots or should draw low ownership. Le’Veon Bell leads all players in expected fantasy points per game and faces an Indianapolis defense allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, despite facing one of the softest running back schedules of the season. Oh, and he’s also, you know, Le’Veon Bell… Todd Gurley leads all players in market share opportunities inside the five- and 10-yard lines, and is one of the safest bets of the weekend to score a touchdown in a game the Rams are favored by 11.5 (highest of the week) and projected to score 29.0 points (highest of the week). Malcolm Brown, who provided garbage time relief last week (15 carries), is now out for the year and Gurley’s only other backups combine for just one touch this season… Melvin Gordon leads all players in expected fantasy points per game (24.1) over the past month of the season, is no longer on the injury report, is likely to go lower-owned than he otherwise should be, and is up against a “run funnel defense” (Marcell Dareus has not yet practiced this week) ranking second-worst in yards per carry allowed (5.02) but best in opposing passer rating (62.9).
LeSean McCoy will draw low ownership after disappointing fantasy owners in primetime last week, despite heading into that week leading all players in expected fantasy points per game over the previous four weeks of the season. The Saints rank ninth-worst in yards per carry allowed (4.2) and are allowing the second-most targets per game to opposing running backs (8.5)… Mark Ingram ranks behind only Ezekiel Elliott and Le’Veon Bell in fantasy points per game over the past four weeks of the season. He should draw low ownership after last week’s poor performance, despite facing a Buffalo team ranking seventh-worst against expectation to opposing running backs… Leonard Fournette has fresh legs off of a bye and a benching to face a Chargers defense ranking third-worst in yards per carry allowed and 10th-worst in rushing fantasy points per game allowed to opposing running backs… Jordan Howard leads the league in percentage of team touches (62 percent) since Mitchell Trubisky’s first start and is up against a Green Bay defense allowing the sixth-most rushing fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. He is also an obvious (to anyone who watched Monday’s game) stacking candidate with Chicago’s defense…
Bilal Powell [DK: RB38, FD: RB24] – Powell is shaping up to be the “free square” on DraftKings this week if Matt Forte is inactive, and I’ll have massive exposure if that is indeed the case (UPDATE: Forte has been ruled OUT for Week 10). Matt Forte missed Week 4 and 5 with an injury earlier this season, and Powell totaled 23 carries and 10 targets in six quarters over this span, before succumbing to an injury himself. Powell has also been much more efficient than you might think. Among all 27 running backs with at least 200 carries over the past two seasons, Powell ranks first in yards per carry (5.20), second in yards after contact per attempt (2.95), and eighth in missed tackles forced per touch (0.18). Over the final month of last season, when Forte saw only eight touches while dealing with an injury, Powell outscored all players at every position, except for only Le’Veon Bell and Aaron Rodgers. The matchup is strong this week as well, with Tampa Bay surrendering 28+ fantasy point days to Alvin Kamara, LeSean McCoy, and Adrian Peterson in three of their last four matchups. While I do expect Elijah McGuire to syphon some touches away, Powell is way too cheap on DraftKings to pass up (if Forte sits).
Carlos Hyde [DK: RB13, FD: RB12] – As has been a common theme in these articles, Hyde’s price-tag is lagging far behind the value of his volume. Hyde currently ranks 12th among running backs in carries, second in targets, and second in opportunities inside the five-yard line. He also ranks fifth among running backs in expected fantasy points per game (18.3) and 11th in actual fantasy points per game (15.6). The consistency (of his workload) has been there as well – in all but one game this season, he’s totaled between 15.5 and 31.1 expected fantasy points. He ranks eighth among all players in targets (26) since C.J. Beathard’s first start and should continue to soak up some extra targets this week with Pierre Garcon, Trent Taylor, and George Kittle all out. The matchup is fairly soft as well, with the Giants surrendering over 100 yards rushing to every team they’ve faced this season except for Denver.
Orleans Darkwa [DK: RB29, FD: RB37] – Darkwa might feel like a “trap play”, but he is one of my top rankings vs. salary plays of the week on FanDuel. For the third consecutive season, the 49ers are allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. They’re allowing 31.4 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs over the past two seasons, or +4.6 more fantasy points per game than the next-closest defense. When only looking at the production scored from a team’s top running back, their 22.1 fantasy points per game allowed over the past two seasons is more than all but David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell have averaged over this stretch. Over New York’s last three games, Darkwa has seen 46 carries (63 percent), six targets, and both of the team’s two carries inside the 10-yard-line. San Francisco has become a plug-and-play defense to stream against, and Darkwa is no exception.
Other – Although Dallas is likely a committee backfield moving forward, I contend Alfred Morris is a fine play on FanDuel, likely to see between 14-18 carries and heavy usage near the goal-line, with upside for more… Duke Johnson has seen between five and 10 targets in every game he’s played but one, as well as between five and seven carries in each of his last four games. He’s in play (if Matt Forte suits up) as a decent salary saver on DraftKings, against a Lions defense ranking bottom-10 in receiving fantasy points per game to opposing running backs for the second-consecutive season.
Wide Receivers
A.J. Green [DK: WR3, FD: WR3] – The case for Antonio Brown as the highest-scoring wide receiver of the week is any easy one. Indianapolis is allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers lined up to their quarterback’s left, which is where Brown runs 53 percent of his routes. Indianapolis is also allowing the most deep fantasy points per game to opposing receivers, while Brown easily leads the league in air yards and deep targets per game. Still, after heavy contemplation, I’m going to take a stand and have greater exposure to Green than Brown.
Green is between $1,400 and $1,800 cheaper on both sites and may actually have the better matchup at lower ownership. Indianapolis typically brings safety help over the top against WR1s, and we’ve seen them shut down the following WR1s this year: Green (27 yards in Week 8), Doug Baldwin (35 yards in Week 4), Larry Fitzgerald (21 yards in Week 2). DeAndre Hopkins had 86 yards against them last week, but also saw 16 targets. Where Indianapolis ranks 15th-best in fantasy points per game over expectation to opposing WR1s, Tennessee ranks second-worst. We’ve already seen big games against Tennessee from the following WR1s: Baldwin (27 points), Jeremy Maclin (18 points), Amari Cooper (17 points), Jarvis Landry (15 points), and Marquise Lee (15 points).
Sterling Shepard [DK: WR20, FD: WR41] – Shepard saw nine targets last week in a tough matchup against our 36th-highest-graded cornerback Nickell Robey-Coleman. This week he faces a San Francisco defense surrendering a 126.6 passer rating (second-worst) to opposing quarterbacks when targeting slot wide receivers. With San Francisco’s starting slot cornerback K’Waun Williams back at practice, the matchup looks even better. Of 114 qualifying cornerbacks, Williams is our second-worst-graded cornerback, the league’s second-most-frequently targeted cornerback, and he ranks 10th-worst in fantasy points allowed per route run. Shepard has one of the highest target projections of the week and ranks 17th among wide receivers in my half-point-PPR rankings. Obviously, he is egregiously priced as only the 41st-most-expensive wide receiver on FanDuel.
Adam Thielen [DK: WR9, FD: WR14] – Thielen ranks fourth in slot targets (41) and has run 61 percent of his routes from the slot in games Diggs has played. Only five times this season has a wide receiver (Doug Baldwin, Nelson Agholor ×2, Aldrick Robinson, and Mack Hollins) scored at least 11 (PPR) fantasy points against Washington. 91 percent of these players’ fantasy points against Washington have come from the slot. That is no coincidence. Against Washington, opposing passers are averaging a passer rating of 101.2 when targeting wide receivers in the slot, as opposed to a 53.0 passer rating when targeting wide receivers outside, which ranks as the largest differential in the league. Or, a final way of putting this, they’re allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to slot wide receivers and the fewest to outside wide receivers. Thielen ranks seventh among wide receivers in expected fantasy points per game (15.5) and that number drops to only 12th (14.4) in games Diggs has also played. Thielen is an excellent play this week at what should be low ownership based on a perceived poor matchup.
Other – Robby Anderson ranks fifth in fantasy points among all wide receivers over the past four weeks of the season, while totaling 10 more targets over this span than Jermaine Kearse. He draws a Tampa Bay defense ranking last in fantasy points per game over expectation to wide receivers, and, specifically, WR1s. Michael Thomas stands out as one of the best dollar-per-projection values at the wide receiver position (based on my projections), but I have a hard time arguing why he’d be a better play than A.J. Green. We were well ahead of the curve on identifying Demaryius Thomas as a Week 9 breakout candidate based on his career splits with Brock Osweiler. Still, I’m struggling between him and Emmanuel Sanders this week, and will update this article by Friday night to let you know where I’m leaning. DeSean Jackson should see a target-boost this week with Mike Evans out, is priced outside of the top-25 wide receivers on both sites, and always retains tournament-winning upside (ranks third in air yards per game) – though for some reason, people are more excited to play Chris Godwin and Adam Humphries.
Tight Ends
Cameron Brate [DK: TE13, FD: TE8] – Brate is coming off an especially tough matchup against the Saints, who have held every tight end they’ve faced but Rob Gronkowski to fewer than 30 total yards. If we exclude that game, Brate has had at least 60 yards in all of his last five games, eight or nine targets in three of his last four games, and a touchdown in four of his last six games. He ranks eighth among tight ends in expected fantasy points per game and sixth in actual fantasy points per game, but is only the 13th-highest-priced tight end on DraftKings this week. He should also see a target boost with Mike Evans out of the lineup (24 percent target market share) and, specifically, more targets near the end zone. Brate and Evans have each seen eight of the team’s 28 red zone targets, with no other Tampa Bay receiver seeing more than three. Finally, the matchup is great, up against a Jets defense ranking fourth-worst in fantasy points per game allowed over expectation to opposing tight ends.
Austin Hooper [DK: TE19, FD: TE21] – Hooper has seen between 6 and 9 targets in four of his last five games. He averages 9.8 expected fantasy points per game over this stretch, implying a safe bet to reach 3x value at a $3,000 price-tag on DraftKings. He also has a soft matchup, drawing a Dallas defense allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends over the past two seasons. Dallas’ numbers look a bit better this year, but as we outlined last week, Travis Kelce was really the only competent (or uninjured and not starting in his first career game) tight end they’ve played this year, and he put up 20.3 fantasy points against them last week.
Other – Evan Engram is expensive but deserves to be mentioned thanks to immense usage of late (ranking third among tight ends in expected fantasy points per game over the past four weeks of the season) and in a matchup that now looks much softer without San Francisco’s top coverage defender Jacquiski Tartt and fellow safety Jimmie Ward… Washington is stout against opposing outside wide receivers while ranking much worse to slot wide receivers and tight ends (allowing the second-most fantasy points per game over the past two seasons). Kyle Rudolph has seen between seven and nine targets in each game following Dalvin Cook’s season-ending ACL injury, and I will certainly have him on some lineups as a hedge against Thielen… Hunter Henry leads all players in red zone targets per game (2.0) and ranks 11th in end zone targets per game (1.0). In his short career, Henry has either totaled 70 yards receiving or scored a touchdown in 14 of his 19 targeted games. Jacksonville is also something of a “tight end funnel” defense, with 29.5 percent of their receiving fantasy points allowed going to tight ends (fifth-most). All of this being said, my favorite tight end of the week (price factored in) is easily…
One Play for Sunday Night
Rob Gronkowski [DK: TE1, FD: TE1] – Gronkowski currently leads all tight ends in expected fantasy points per game (15.0), with +2.5 expected fantasy points per game more than the next-closest tight end (Travis Kelce). Among all receivers, he ranks sixth in actual fantasy points per game (16.3), behind only DeAndre Hopkins, Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham Jr. (RIP), Will Fuller (RIP), and Zach Ertz (bye). He draws a deceptively soft matchup against a “tight end funnel” defense in the Broncos, who have led the league in percentage of receiving fantasy points allowed to tight ends in each of the past two seasons (34.1 percent and 29.2 percent). Denver also ranks fifth worst in fantasy points per game over expectation to tight ends, while ranking top-five against wide receivers and running backs. Bill Belichick has a long history of specifically game-planning to attack a defense where they are weakest, and that’s what it appears he’s done in recent games against Denver. Gronkowski has scored between 20 and 29 fantasy points in each of his last four games against Denver. The Patriots should also be without Gronkowski’s main competition for near-end-zone targets, as Chris Hogan is looking doubtful for Week 10. Both rank top-12 among all receivers in targets inside the 10- and 20-yard-lines per game. Both combine to account for anywhere between 63 and 74 percent of the team’s targets inside the five-, 10-, and 20-yard-lines as well as end zone targets. Gronkowski is my top high-priced must-play option this week and easily has the best touchdown-upside of any receiver with Chris Hogan out, though that was probably already the case, considering he leads all players since 1940 in receiving touchdowns per game.
One Play for Monday Night
DeVante Parker [DK: WR15, FD: WR28] – Parker is just the 28th-highest-priced wide receiver on FanDuel, but sits 14th in my half-point-PPR rankings, up against a Carolina defense allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing outside wide receivers. Excluding Week 5, when he only played three snaps, Parker ranks ninth among wide receivers in targets per game (8.5), fourth in air yards per game (129.3), second in deep targets per game (2.8), ninth in expected fantasy points per game (14.9), and ninth in actual fantasy points per game (14.9). We expect Parker to draw James Bradberry in shadow coverage this week, but I’m not too nervous. Parker has still been productive despite having the toughest cornerback schedule in the league, and Bradberry actually grades out poorly (90th of 115 qualifying cornerbacks) while allowing the fourth-most yards (450) of any cornerback this season. He’s still a risky play in his second week back following a high-ankle sprain, and considering Miami has the lowest implied point total of the week, but as 10-point dogs Cutler should take plenty of deep shots to Parker and I’ll take some shots as well on slates he’s available.