NFL Grind Down: Week 1
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
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INJURIES – I will update all notable injuries/suspensions on Saturday morning after we have final injury reports
| Kansas City Chiefs | New England Patriots | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 48 | 20 | -8 | 48 | 28 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 23.8 | 13 | 23 | 19 | Offense | 27.9 | 4 | 6 | 9 | |
| Opp. Defense | 15.6 | 1 | 11 | 5 | Opp. Defense | 19.4 | 6 | 17 | 27 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| New England Patriots | 8 | 6 | 6 | 8 | Kansas City Chiefs | 9 | 15 | 12 | 9 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Hill | 89 | 65 | 6 | 620 | Edelman | 173 | 106 | 3 | 1,243 | |
| Conley | 72 | 46 | 0 | 549 | Cooks | 117 | 78 | 8 | 1,173 | |
| Wilson | 54 | 33 | 3 | 282 | Hogan | 62 | 42 | 4 | 775 | |
| Kelce | 124 | 90 | 4 | 1,202 | Gronkowski | 38 | 25 | 3 | 540 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Malcolm Mitchell – Questionable (Knee)
KC Matchup Rating: 5.5
NE Matchup Rating: 8.0
Kansas City Chiefs
Quarterback: As Peter Griffin would say, let’s play some footbaww! The season gets kick-started on Thursday with the Chiefs visiting the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots, and I am not interested in Alex Smith as a quarterback option. For all the talk of Smith pushing the ball down field more often this year, the fact remains that we have years of data on Smith as more of a game manager type, and his fantasy ceiling remains capped until he proves otherwise. The Chiefs didn’t go draft Patrick Mahomes for no reason. The Patriots have attempted to improve their pass defense with the addition of Stephon Gilmore, and I couldn’t have less interest in Smith here.
Running Back: It didn’t take us long to get to one of the “shiny new toys” that we have for DFS this season, and a lot of them will unsurprisingly come at running back. Spencer Ware has officially been ruled out for the season, so this job will belong to rising youngster Kareem Hunt, who by all accounts impressed throughout training camp and the preseason. Charcandrick West is a limited talent backup who will likely serve as a change of pace back, at best. We all know that RB #1’s in an Andy Reid offense are fantasy gold, so Hunt has tons of potential. However, since FanDuel and DraftKings did wait to release pricing for the Thursday lock contests, Hunt at least has a reasonable salary tag on both sites. In addition, the Patriots boast a stout run defense, and the game script will likely call for the Chiefs playing from behind. Hunt isn’t overly expensive and is in play, but he’s not the lock that he would have been at a cheap price tag.
Pass Catchers: With Bill Belichick likely scheming to slow down Travis Kelce, the main threat in Kansas City’s passing attack, there isn’t much to love with the Kansas City pass catching corps. It would not surprise me if the Patriots have Gilmore cover Kelce from time to time in this game. The primary appeal would be boom/bust threat Tyreek Hill, who carries big play potential every time he touches the ball, but I expect him to be over-owned on Thursday lock contests. After all, everyone likes having someone to root for in the first game of the season, so everyone from this game will likely be over-owned in both cash games and tournaments.
The Takeaway: Kareem Hunt is a fine option at his salary, as top running backs in an Andy Reid offense are generally steady fantasy producers. I don’t have much, if any, interest in the passing game. The best play from that group would be Tyreek Hill, but nobody on this whole roster is a must have on the Week 1 slate.
New England Patriots
Quarterback: Tom Brady might be an above average NFL quarterback at the age of 60. This guy just seems to never age. The Chiefs do have a talented secondary, but they aren’t the kind of shut down pass defense to where Tom Brady should struggle. I prefer other quarterback options in the Sunday games, but Brady can certainly be used if you really want to use a quarterback from this game. His floor is as safe as any quarterback in the league, and the Patriots have a 28 point implied team total is the second highest of the week.
Running Back: Taking a Patriots running back is somewhat like getting a root canal. It scares the heck out of you to do it, but a lot of times you feel a lot better afterwards. Last year, we were able to figure out roles based on game script. For example, in a lot of games where the Patriots jumped out to a lead, LeGarrette Blount was a viable fantasy commodity. However, we don’t have enough data yet to figure out how players are going to be used this year. Mike Gillislee should take on the early down and goal line role, and there will be weeks where he is worth a look in DFS. The other duties will be split between Rex Burkhead, Dion Lewis, and James White in a yet-to-be-determined time share. Burkhead might even work out of the slot with Julian Edelman sidelined for the season. I will take a wait and see approach here until we can get a better feel for how the rotation will work.
Pass Catchers: It will become a theme in this article, but you will notice that a lot of the high-end tight ends have difficult Week 1 matchups. I have already discussed Travis Kelce on the other side of this game, and the mighty Rob Gronkowski will have to match up with physical safety Eric Berry. Of course, Gronk has the talent to rise above any matchup, and he posted a 7/83/2 line in the 2016 playoff game between these two teams. Based on what I believe is the ideal roster build for Week 1, I am not going to spend up for Gronk at tight end. He has the highest gross fantasy point projection, but he is not my top point-per-dollar play. Brandin Cooks should see a ton of targets in his debut, especially now that Edelman is out for the year, but he will also match up plenty with a solid CB in Marcus Peters. The Patriots also do a great job of spreading the ball around. An unheralded cheap guy like Chris Hogan or Danny Amendola could certainly be worth a look as a punt play.
The Takeaway: As usual, the Patriots will likely score a lot of points. Figuring out where they are going to come from is the hardest part. Tom Brady and Brandin Cooks are strong plays, but they will also cost you top dollar. Rob Gronkowski has a tough matchup as well, but he is an elite tight end that could certainly be worth the price of admission. I am avoiding the running back mess for now until we see how it plays out. All told, I will be underweight on Patriots this week, and that makes me nervous with them likely being highly owned in GPP formats thanks to the Thursday start.
| New York Jets | Buffalo Bills | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 41.5 | 17.5 | -6.5 | 41.5 | 24 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 17.2 | 30 | 28 | 12 | Offense | 24.9 | 10 | 31 | 1 | |
| Opp. Defense | 23.6 | 16 | 7 | 29 | Opp. Defense | 25.6 | 28 | 16 | 13 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Buffalo Bills | 11 | 28 | 9 | 5 | New York Jets | 20 | 18 | 13 | 21 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Anderson | 78 | 42 | 2 | 587 | Matthews | 116 | 73 | 3 | 804 | |
| Marshall | 22 | 14 | 2 | 162 | Holmes | 30 | 18 | 4 | 176 | |
| Peake | 35 | 19 | 0 | 186 | Jones | |||||
| Seferian-Jenkins | 20 | 13 | 1 | 154 | Clay | 87 | 57 | 4 | 552 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: None
NYJ Matchup Rating: 3.5
BUF Matchup Rating: 4.5
New York Jets
Quarterback: Why oh why does the first Sunday game have to be this disaster? The Jets are very clearly tanking 2017, and they will be hard pressed to win more than a game or two this season. This offense is going to be beyond horrendous. Josh McCown started the final preseason game and will get the duties in Week 1. Needless to say, he is nowhere near a fantasy option.
Running Back: The running back situation in New York is quite messy right now, as there have been rumors about Matt Forte getting traded or released. If that happens, Bilal Powell would get a nice upgrade as an every down back who can also catch passes. Powell posted solid fantasy numbers when he was given extended opportunities a year ago. Even if Forte remains part of the active roster, he is going to find it difficult to produce with this offense given that they will almost assuredly be trailing in every game. Powell is the preferred target here, but a time share with Forte doesn’t bode well for anyone. Keep an eye on the situation heading into this game, but there’s certainly no need to force anything.
Pass Catchers: Robby Anderson is now the Jets #1 wide receiver. Yes, you read that correctly. Josh McCown is going to be throwing him passes. That’s how bad things are in New York in a lost season. It is tempting to try and find a value guy in this dumpster fire, but it’s very possible that McCown only throws for 200 yards or so — even if the Jets are trailing. Anderson and ArDarius Stewart are worth a look as potential plays, but they are by no means absolute locks.
The Takeaway: There are not going to be many reasons to like the Jets offense this year. Streaming defenses against them in season long and DFS formats is going to be very popular. As such, feel free to fire up the Bills as a top-end DFS defense in Week 1. The only potential options for the Jets are value wide receivers in Anderson and Stewart with Bilal Powell becoming more interesting if Matt Forte is out of the picture.
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback: It appears as though Tyrod Taylor is going to be healthy enough to play in this game, but that doesn’t exactly make him the most exciting QB option. This doesn’t line up as the best matchup for the Bills, as the Jets can be exploited more easily through the air than on the ground. Taylor does have some form of upside with his legs, but this game profiles as one of the lowest scoring games of the week. Given how bad the Jets are, the Bills will likely be content to play conservative football and sit on a 7-10 point lead for much of the game. I would not expect Taylor to eclipse 30 pass attempts unless the game script goes awry. He is not on my Week 1 radar.
Running Back: Although this is clearly the tougher matchup when it comes to facing the Jets, as the Jets led the league in DVOA against the run a year ago, the game script and potential usage are huge boons to the fantasy value for LeSean McCoy. The Bills have no other skill players that are anywhere near the talent of McCoy, and he is one of the best pass-catching running backs in the league. It would not surprise me to see McCoy lead all running backs in Week 1 touches, and his floor is as high as any running back on the slate despite the tough matchup. He is certainly capable of finding the end zone a time or two, which also increases his upside for GPP play. Even though they might not be the most efficient touches, McCoy is a top five running back play this week.
Pass Catchers: With Sammy Watkins out of the picture, this is a barren group of pass catchers. Jordan Matthews got injured in his first practice as a member of the Bills, but it sounds like he is going to be ready to go for this game. The most interesting option might just be rookie Zay Jones, who impressed in camp and checks in with a very reasonable DFS price tag on every site this week. The Jets are beatable in the secondary, but the volume is still a concern. Jones is the only one I am interested in.
The Takeaway: Even though a matchup against the Jets is generally better for a passing game, we might see a change in 2017 simply because the Jets are going to be so bad. Teams will be able to churn clock against them while nursing leads, so I would expect the overall defensive numbers to be better against the pass and worse against the run simply based on game flow and volume. LeSean McCoy is an elite play this week for that reason, and I will largely ignore the passing game outside of a shot or two at a guy like Zay Jones.
| Atlanta Falcons | Chicago Bears | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -6.5 | 51 | 28.75 | 6.5 | 51 | 22.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 33.9 | 1 | 2 | 5 | Offense | 17.4 | 29 | 15 | 16 | |
| Opp. Defense | 24.9 | 24 | 6 | 26 | Opp. Defense | 25.1 | 26 | 27 | 17 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Chicago Bears | 19 | 10 | 23 | 11 | Atlanta Falcons | 31 | 25 | 21 | 27 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Jones | 137 | 89 | 7 | 1,476 | Meredith | 97 | 66 | 4 | 888 | |
| Sanu | 86 | 63 | 5 | 697 | White | 36 | 19 | 0 | 187 | |
| Gabriel | 57 | 40 | 6 | 659 | Wright | 43 | 29 | 3 | 416 | |
| Hooper | 28 | 20 | 3 | 281 | Miller | 64 | 47 | 4 | 486 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: None
ATL Matchup Rating: 9.0
CHI Matchup Rating: 6.0
Atlanta Falcons
Quarterback: Now we’re talking. This game figures to be one of the more entertaining Week 1 games, and I have interest in both sides for DFS purposes. The back end of the Bears defense figures to have some leaks, and that doesn’t bode well against Matt Ryan and company. Ryan is coming off a fantastic year where he threw for a career-best 4,944 yards and 38 touchdowns, and the offense figures to play at a faster pace this year under a new offensive coordinator in Steve Sarkisian. The Falcons have the highest implied team total of the week, and the only concern is the (very real) chance that the Falcons jump out to a big lead and are able to take the air out of the ball in the second half. Absent that game script, it should be all systems go for Ryan in this spot.
Running Back: I often found it difficult to pull the trigger on the running backs for the Falcons last year, as the carry split between Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman always made me nervous. However, both players are capable in the passing game, and they seem to feed of each other’s performances. They are incredibly efficient with their touches, and there is room for both of them to perform in this offense. Freeman is the more talented back, as evidenced by his status as a first round pick in season long leagues, but both guys should find some success in this game. The Bears ranked 29th in DVOA against the run a year ago, and they might end up being without starting nose tackle Eddie Goldman for this game. If Goldman is sidelined, the Falcons should be able to gouge the Bears on the ground in this game.
Pass Catchers: Part of the reason why Julio Jones rarely seems to have the massive, DFS-winning type of weeks that we see from other wide receivers is that the Falcons had previously shown an unwillingness to force him the ball in the red zone. I expect that to change under a new offensive scheme, and of course Jones is also capable of breaking chunk plays any time he touches the ball. The Bears lack a shutdown corner, and Jones has a very safe floor in this game. It’s tough to trust deep threat Taylor Gabriel, limited upside Mohamed Sanu, or inconsistent Austin Hooper in DFS, though Hooper is an interesting dart throw as a cheap play if you want to punt tight end. He has generated a lot of buzz leading up to this season, though his preseason numbers weren’t great.
The Takeaway: The Falcons should be one of the top offenses to target this week. Their team total is approaching 30 points, and they should have their way with a mediocre Bears defense. Ryan, Freeman, Coleman, and Jones are all strong plays, and I would try to make sure to get exposure to at least one Atlanta player in cash games.
Chicago Bears
Quarterback: The Bears are one of the more interesting boom/bust squads of the week. There’s a feeling in the community that the Bears are going to be certifiably awful this season, but they certainly have more offensive talent than a team like the Jets. I actually think this might be one of the better offensive games for the Bears this year, so if you want to target them, this could be a week to do it. The Falcons had a below average defense against both the run and the pass last year. Although I don’t mind targeting some Bears players this week, that doesn’t mean I want to do it at quarterback. Mike Glennon is a low upside option who is just keeping the seat warm until Mitchell Trubisky is ready, and he is an easy avoid with unproven receivers at his disposal.
Running Back: This would be the most logical spot to target a Chicago player this week. Jordan Howard is clearly the most talented offensive weapon that the team has, and he is one of the rare three down backs that we have in the NFL these days. The Bears cut last year’s early season starter Jeremy Langford, Ka’Deem Carey has already been placed on injured reserve, and there is little depth behind Howard. The Falcons could allow some chunk run plays, especially if they play a “soft” defense with a second half lead. The one caution that I will throw out there is that Howard is a minus in the passing game, and his primary backup is likely to be Benny Cunningham, who is a plus in the passing game. Should the Bears fall way behind, there is risk with Howard. Absent that, Howard is one of the strongest options on the board for a 100+ yard game in Week 1.
Pass Catchers: The injury to Cameron Meredith was perhaps one of the more crippling pre-season injuries, and it certainly didn’t get the media attention that the Edelman and Ware injuries did. This leaves the Bears with a gaping hole in the receiving corps. Top receiver duties will be up in the air for the likes of Kevin White and Kendall Wright. Yikes. White has been a bust since entering the league out of West Virginia, and injuries appear to have sapped any semblance of speed that he has. It’s hard for me trust him out of the gate. Wright is the safe option here, and he has a nice history with offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains. He comes very cheap for DFS purposes and is one of the best value plays on the board this week. The tight end position is off limits for me until we see how things shake out.
The Takeaway: There is opportunity for the Bears in this matchup. Jordan Howard is one of the top six or seven running backs on the board this week, with the only risk being him losing snaps if the Bears fall way behind in this game. Kendall Wright is one of the better value options on the board with his cheap price tag and the Bears’ lack of depth at receiver.
| Baltimore Ravens | Cincinnati Bengals | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 43 | 20.5 | -2 | 43 | 22.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 21.4 | 20 | 9 | 28 | Offense | 20.3 | 24 | 13 | 13 | |
| Opp. Defense | 19.7 | 7 | 12 | 21 | Opp. Defense | 20.1 | 10 | 10 | 4 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 14 | 20 | 2 | 30 | Baltimore Ravens | 12 | 9 | 20 | 10 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Wallace | 117 | 72 | 4 | 1,017 | Green | 100 | 66 | 4 | 964 | |
| Perriman | 66 | 33 | 3 | 499 | LaFell | 107 | 64 | 6 | 862 | |
| Maclin | 80 | 46 | 2 | 564 | Boyd | 81 | 54 | 1 | 603 | |
| Watson | Eifert | 47 | 29 | 5 | 394 | |||||
Notable injuries and suspensions: None – Joe Flacco removed from injury report
BAL Matchup Rating: 5.0
CIN Matchup Rating: 5.5
Baltimore Ravens
Quarterback: This is one of the least exciting games of the week, and it ranks down there along with the aforementioned Bills/Jets game. Joe Flacco appears to be healthy and ready to go, but it is possible that he shows some rust after an extended absence which included zero preseason snaps. Flacco is almost always a quarterback we can ignore from a DFS perspective, and that is not going to change in a road game against an under-rated Bengals pass defense.
Running Back: The Ravens have one of the lowest implied team totals of the week at just 20 points, so there’s not much to get excited about here. Running back snaps are going to be split between Terrance West and Danny Woodhead, with West being the early down bruiser and Woodhead being a change of pace and passing game back. This is not a situation I want to mess with given the Ravens’ low team total, though the Bengals were surprisingly poor against the run a year ago. I suppose you could consider Woodhead in full PPR formats, but I’m not even super excited about that.
Pass Catchers: When is the last time you have regretted not rostering a Baltimore receiver? I’ll wait for you to try and think of a time. You probably won’t. The Ravens are going to try to run the ball with a new offensive system in place this year, and I wouldn’t expect huge passing volume out of Joe Flacco. Breshad Perriman can’t stay healthy. Mike Wallace is simply a boom/bust deep threat. Jeremy Maclin might make some sense against the Bengals defense, but he’s more of a high floor, low ceiling cash game play. Again, there’s nothing ground breaking here.
The Takeaway: You could just pass over the entire Baltimore offense this week and not feel like you are missing anything. The team total is low, and there’s not much appeal. I could see using Danny Woodhead in a full PPR format or Jeremy Maclin in a cash game, but there’s nothing worthwhile outside of that.
Cincinnati Bengals
Quarterback: Andy Dalton got a lot of buzz in the offseason as a potential breakout candidate in 2017, and it would not surprise me to see him make some solid improvement. He threw just 18 touchdowns in 16 games a year ago, so there’s not many places to go but up. The matchup sets up relatively well, also, as the Ravens are built around being able to stifle the run. If you are looking to go cheap at quarterback with your Week 1 choice, I don’t mind a flier on Dalton. Just keep in mind that 300 yards and a pair of scores is likely his ceiling, as Dalton is not the 400 yard gunslinger type.
Running Back: Cross them all off the list this week. The Ravens have had a stellar run defense for the better part of the last decade and a half, and that is not likely to change this season. They ranked fourth in the league in DVOA against the run last year and have a solid run stopping front seven. In addition, the Bengals are likely to use a trio of running backs that includes Jeremy Hill, Giovani Bernard, and Joe Mixon to start the year, until Mixon finally takes over the job at some point. I could not have less interest in this unit right now.
Pass Catchers: In addition to being good against the run, the Ravens also defend tight ends well (remember that Week 1 theme – the elite tight ends have difficult matchups). As such, this is not the week where you want to pay for Tyler Eifert. That leaves us with the wide receivers. Although the Ravens have reasonable talent at cornerback, this is a fine matchup for A.J. Green. The Ravens do give up some big plays in the passing game, and while Green missed both matchups a year ago due to injury, he had three touchdowns in the two meetings the year prior, and that included one game of 10 catches for 227 yards. Green is one of my favorite wide receiver targets of the week.
The Takeaway: I love A.J. Green this week, and I can see Andy Dalton as a passable value option at quarterback. In fact, they make for an interesting QB/WR stack. I will avoid the rest of the group, as the Bengals’ running back corps is a depth chart mess at this point, and the Ravens are very good at stopping the run. The rest of the wide receivers are limited upside options, and the Ravens also defend tight ends well.