NFL Grind Down: Week 8 - Page Three
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New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
| New England Patriots | Buffalo Bills | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -6.5 | 47.5 | 27 | 6.5 | 47.5 | 20.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 25.1 | 10 | 11 | 6 | Offense | 26.7 | 6 | 31 | 2 | |
| Opp. Defense | 18.7 | 8 | 14 | 27 | Opp. Defense | 15.3 | 4 | 20 | 11 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Buffalo Bills | 3 | 21 | 13 | 2 | New England Patriots | 18 | 11 | 10 | 19 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Edelman | 55 | 37 | 0 | 321 | Woods | 37 | 25 | 1 | 240 | |
| Amendola | 16 | 13 | 2 | 162 | Goodwin | 32 | 12 | 3 | 258 | |
| Hogan | 23 | 15 | 1 | 300 | Hunter | 7 | 4 | 2 | 59 | |
| Gronkowski | 23 | 17 | 2 | 375 | Clay | 36 | 24 | 0 | 268 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Martellus Bennett (NE TE) – Questionable (Ankle) / Julian Edelman (NE WR) – Questionable but expected to play (Foot) / LeSean McCoy (BUF RB) – Doubtful (Hamstring) / Marquise Goodwin (BUF WR) – Out (Concussion) / Charles Clay (BUF TE) – Questionable but expected to play (Knee) / Mike Gillislee (BUF RB) – Questionable but expected to play (Foot) / Robert Woods (BUF WR) – Questionable (Foot)
NE Matchup Rating: 7.0
BUF Matchup Rating: 5.5
New England Patriots
Quarterback: Tom Brady defies every conventional thought about aging quarterbacks. He remains as good as he ever was, though he wasn’t asked to do a whole lot as New England coasted to a double digit victory against the Landry Jones-led Steelers a week ago. He was coming off two very good games before that, and he is locked in as a top three quarterback option every week. This isn’t an easy matchup in Buffalo, but the Jekyll and Hyde Bills just lost a game to Miami. They rank in the middle of the pack in both pass and rush defense, and you can certainly target Brady in any format. He should have to throw it a bit more in this one.
Running Backs: Bill Belichick always keeps us guessing. After two weeks featuring James White and more of a pass-first approach, the Patriots gave him a total of zero carries last week compared to 24 for LeGarrette Blount. White did salvage something of a fantasy day with two catches and a touchdown, though. These two are far too unpredictable to use. It totally depends on New England’s game plan, which is almost impossible to predict. That’s why their coach is the best in the game.
Pass Catchers: The Gronk is back, as he has now scored in back-to-back games. He should feast in the second half of the season, and he’s back atop the weekly tight end rankings. Julian Edelman is probably happy to see Brady back under center, as he did his usual yeoman’s work with nine grabs for 60 yards against Pittsburgh. He’s still a little over-priced for my liking, and my attention mainly lies just with Gronkowski. Martellus Bennett saw just two targets last week and is pretty much off the radar with Gronkowski smashing again.
The Takeaway: Brady and Gronkowski, as always, are strong plays, even in a “neutral” overall matchup. The viability of everyone else is game plan reliant. I don’t mind taking James White in a PPR format for a GPP roster, or LeGarrette Blount in a non-PPR or half PPR format, but there is risk inherent in both players. If I had to pick a wide receiver, Edelman would be the choice.
Buffalo Bills
Running Backs: I am breaking the convention here and listing running backs first because I have to get this off my chest: Why on EARTH did the Bills let LeSean McCoy play last week? Everyone could see it was a massive mistake to let him play… except the Bills. Of course, he aggravated his hamstring injury and now we get to play the whole game over again. I can’t fathom them making the same mistake twice, but you never know. If he is out, I am fine with using Mike Gillislee as a value play even in a fairly difficult matchup against New England.
Quarterback: Tyrod Taylor lacks weapons around him with Sammy Watkins and possibly McCoy on the shelf. Robert Woods didn’t play last week. Marquise Goodwin got hurt last week. That leaves Justin Hunter as the possible number one wide receiver. Yikes. I want no part of Taylor here.
Pass Catchers: See above. Yikes again. If Woods remains sidelined, there is some intrigue here simply based on volume. The Bills will likely be forced to the air, and their remaining receivers are all cheap. Justin Hunter and Charles Clay would be worth a look in this scenario, especially if McCoy doesn’t play.
The Takeaway: The Bills are banged up on offense, and the primary reason to target any of them against New England will be because of their value price tags. Should LeSean McCoy and Robert Woods sit this week, I like both Mike Gillislee and Justin Hunter for value. SOMEONE has to get some yards here, right? Perhaps the more prudent play would be to roll the New England defense. Check back for an injury update later in the week.
San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos
| San Diego Chargers | Denver Broncos | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | 44 | 19.25 | -5.5 | 44 | 24.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 29.4 | 2 | 7 | 23 | Offense | 23.9 | 13 | 27 | 16 | |
| Opp. Defense | 16.7 | 6 | 1 | 22 | Opp. Defense | 26.4 | 24 | 26 | 8 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Denver Broncos | 2 | 18 | 1 | 15 | San Diego Chargers | 22 | 29 | 14 | 23 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Benjamin | 49 | 35 | 2 | 465 | Thomas | 54 | 37 | 4 | 456 | |
| Inman | 31 | 17 | 1 | 237 | Sanders | 65 | 40 | 3 | 499 | |
| Williams | 47 | 31 | 2 | 526 | Fowler | 14 | 7 | 1 | 55 | |
| Gates | 30 | 17 | 2 | 119 | Green | 12 | 10 | 0 | 95 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Travis Benjamin (SD WR) – Questionable (Knee) / Tyrell Williams (SD WR) – Questionable (Knee) / Hunter Henry (SD TE) – Questionable (Concussion) / C.J. Anderson (DEN RB) – Out (Knee)
SD Matchup Rating: 4.0
DEN Matchup Rating: 8.5
San Diego Chargers
Quarterback: The Chargers shocked the Broncos on Thursday Night Football two weeks ago, but it wasn’t necessarily because of Phillip Rivers. He threw for just 178 yards in the game, and in fact the Chargers were held below 300 total yards of offense in that game. It was their defense that made the difference. Denver ranks 2nd in DVOA against the pass, and their secondary is not one that you want to pick on. There will be weeks and matchups where we are happy to take Phillip Rivers, but this is not one of them.
Running Backs: What do we make of Melvin Gordon? He CONTINUES to produce despite the metrics saying that he really isn’t that good. He ranks just 33rd in the NFL in yards per carry at 3.3. That mark is out of just 39 qualified rushers. Yet, his eight rushing touchdowns are tied with LeGarrette Blount and David Johnson for the NFL lead. Gordon isn’t your prototypical goal line, either. In other words, everything indicates that these touchdowns are a fluke. The coaching staff is talking about reducing his work load. He isn’t a great pass catcher. Needless to say, I will not be playing Melvin Gordon against the Broncos, especially since they are likely to fall behind in the game with the rematch taking place in Denver. Both major sites are tempting you with a reasonable price tag, so I can’t fault you if you play him. I’ve been harping against him for weeks, and I’ve been wrong on this one more times than not. It’s obvious that the touchdown upside will correct in the long term, though, and then you basically have Rashad Jennings.
Pass Catchers: Hunter Henry is in the concussion protocol but is currently expected to be cleared by the weekend. If he is cleared, he is a sneaky tight end option that most people will forget about because of his injury. Antonio Gates isn’t a threat at this point in his career. I can’t target the wide receiving trio of Travis Benjamin, Tyrell Williams, or Dontrelle Inman against one of the best secondary units in the NFL.
The Takeaway: Denver is my top defense this week. I think the team will play better in the rematch, and the defense didn’t exactly play poorly two weeks ago. Melvin Gordon is bound to hit regression here soon, and the passing game will struggle against Denver’s secondary. Pairing the Denver defense with Devontae Booker (more on that below) is a sound strategy in any format in Week 8.
Denver Broncos
Quarterback: Denver played with a comfortable lead Monday night against the Texans, and Trevor Siemian was not tasked with doing a whole lot. He attempted just 25 passes in the game, but he managed the game well and didn’t make any major mistakes. He struggled mightily against a sneaky good San Diego pass defense two weeks ago, and he isn’t a fantasy target in the rematch. There’s too much downside and risk and not enough upside, and that is not a combination we like in DFS.
Running Backs: News broke on Wednesday afternoon that C.J. Anderson could miss a significant period of time with a knee injury. This leaves plenty of opportunity for Devontae Booker, who has looked better with each passing week and had already turned this backfield into a time share. Priced at $5,600 on FanDuel and $3,700 on DraftKings, Booker has vaulted himself to the top of the list of value plays this week. The Chargers rank just 18th in DVOA against opposing running games, and Booker will be playing with a game script likely in his favor. There’s appeal here for any format, with the only merit of a fade being his likely high ownership in GPPs. I will still play him and differentiate my lineups elsewhere.
Pass Catchers: Even though the Broncos will go with a run heavy approach whenever they can, there is still merit to using either Demaryius Thomas or Emmanuel Sanders most weeks. Both players were shut down in the previous meeting between these teams, with neither guy eclipsing 40 yards receiving. I would much rather pivot to other options in this price range in Week 8. My Denver exposure will begin and end with the aforementioned Devontae Booker.
The Takeaway: Play Devontae Booker. He is extremely talented and will see most of the carries with C.J. Anderson out. You can consider Thomas or Sanders in the passing game, but San Diego is better than most people think against the pass. Again, Booker seems to be the most logical option.
Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers
| Arizona Cardinals | Carolina Panthers | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 48 | 22.75 | -2.5 | 48 | 25.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 22.7 | 15 | 14 | 5 | Offense | 26.8 | 5 | 5 | 7 | |
| Opp. Defense | 29.3 | 29 | 28 | 7 | Opp. Defense | 15.7 | 5 | 3 | 13 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Carolina Panthers | 30 | 9 | 22 | 31 | Arizona Cardinals | 7 | 2 | 8 | 1 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Fitzgerald | 71 | 47 | 5 | 484 | Benjamin | 52 | 29 | 4 | 394 | |
| Floyd | 43 | 19 | 3 | 257 | Ginn | 26 | 14 | 0 | 191 | |
| Brown | 45 | 24 | 0 | 301 | Funchess | 19 | 7 | 2 | 112 | |
| Gresham | 14 | 8 | 0 | 74 | Olsen | 60 | 39 | 2 | 610 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: John Brown (ARI WR) – Questionable but expected to play (Hamstring) / Michael Floyd (ARI WR) – Questionable (Hamstring)
ARI Matchup Rating: 7.0
CAR Matchup Rating: 5.0
Arizona Cardinals
Quarterback: At the start of the season, this game would have been a much-ballyhooed affair as a rematch between the top two teams in the NFC a year ago. Instead, we have a 3-3-1 Arizona team coming off a horrifically played tie against Seattle facing off against a one-win Carolina squad. Yuck. Carson Palmer is on the tail end of his career, and he struggles to make big plays and deep throws at this point. He has just seven touchdowns in six games this year. As wrong as I have been on Melvin Gordon, at least I have been harping on this since Week 1. The good news for Palmer is that Carolina doesn’t have a good secondary, and Palmer is very cheap this week. If you are a believer in him, you can take a shot here. Of course, you know my stance.
Running Backs: David Johnson is the best running back in the National Football League right now. Even in an awful game like Sunday night’s, it was amazing to see how often Johnson turned losses or no gains into positive yardage. As I mentioned above, he is tied for the NFL lead with eight rushing touchdowns. and he leads all NFL running backs in receiving targets. That gives him both a high floor and plenty of upside, and he is a safe target for any game format against the scuffling Carolina defense. They are much better against the run than the pass, but Johnson’s multi-dimensional ability makes him a fine play. Remember, he rushed for three touchdowns against the Jets’ elite rush defense just two weeks back.
Pass Catchers: The receiving corps in Arizona will have a little more clarity thanks to an unfortunate ACL injury to Jaron Brown. That will offer up a few more targets for Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown (assuming he returns this week), and Michael Floyd. Fitzgerald is the safest weekly option, while Brown possesses big play ability. Floyd isn’t really an option at this point, as he had a horrible drop last week and is really trending in the wrong direction. Even though I don’t trust Palmer in this matchup, Fitzgerald makes a lot of sense here. He has a size and skill advantage over all the Carolina corners, and he is the safest option of the bunch. Keep an eye on Brown’s status throughout the week, as he is definitely in play as a value option, especially for GPP contests.
FRIDAY UPDATE – Brown is expected to play, while Michael Floyd now appears to be a game time decision. Brown has solid upside against this burnable Carolina secondary.
The Takeaway: Carolina’s defense has been one of the biggest disappointments of the year, so Arizona should be able to get their offense going. David Johnson is an elite RB1 target every week, and he can be deployed as you wish even though Carolina is better against the run. I don’t trust Carson Palmer, but you can consider Larry Fitzgerald or John Brown (if healthy) as wide receiver options against a depleted secondary.
Carolina Panthers
Quarterback: It has been a frustrating year for Cam Newton, and his concussion a few weeks ago prevented him from getting any momentum going heading into the middle portion of the season. The good news is that he played very well against the Saints two weeks ago, and now the Panthers are coming off a bye. This should be a spot where we see the vintage Cam Newton, and he dismantled this Arizona defense in last year’s NFC Championship game. It’s tough to endorse him for cash games, especially since we aren’t getting a discount, but Newton provides upside with his legs that we don’t get with too many other quarterbacks these days. He’s a GPP-only option for me, but he’s a very good one for those types of contests. The multiple rushing touchdown upside can’t be ignored, even against a decent defense.
Running Backs: Given the presence of Newton back in the mix, it’s tough to count on Jonathan Stewart. He will very rarely get the goal line carries, as Newton is more likely to just run them in himself. Stewart did get a pair of rushing touchdowns against the Saints in the last game, while Newton got one. Stewart carries too much risk, and he doesn’t pile up the yardage with long runs to give him a safe floor. I will pass this week.
Pass Catchers: The fringe receivers are never reliable, and I can’t remember the last time I have comfortably been able to trust Ted Ginn, Devin Funchess, or Corey Brown. At best, they are GPP fliers in the hope of a big touchdown catch. Kelvin Benjamin has even been up and down this year, and he will likely see a lot of Patrick Peterson in this game. The best target would be Greg Olsen, but he ranks behind both Gronkowski and Graham on my tight end list this week. There isn’t a whole lot to love in the Carolina receiving corps.
The Takeaway: Cam Newton is an obvious GPP option because of his massive upside, and you don’t have to pair him with a receiver do get access to that upside. He is probably the only Carolina player I will target in this game as they face a good defense that ranks 4th in DVOA against the pass and 10th against the run.
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys
| Philadelphia Eagles | Dallas Cowboys | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 43.5 | 19.75 | -4 | 43.5 | 23.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 26.0 | 9 | 29 | 17 | Offense | 26.5 | 7 | 21 | 1 | |
| Opp. Defense | 17.8 | 7 | 21 | 9 | Opp. Defense | 14.7 | 3 | 5 | 14 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Dallas Cowboys | 20 | 3 | 17 | 27 | Philadelphia Eagles | 1 | 17 | 7 | 5 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Matthews | 41 | 25 | 2 | 354 | Bryant | 23 | 11 | 1 | 150 | |
| Agholor | 32 | 18 | 1 | 191 | Williams | 24 | 20 | 1 | 311 | |
| Green-Beckham | 22 | 13 | 1 | 139 | Beasley | 39 | 33 | 3 | 390 | |
| Ertz | 16 | 11 | 0 | 131 | Witten | 42 | 28 | 0 | 274 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Dez Bryant (DAL WR) – Questionable but expected to play (Knee) / Jason Witten (DAL TE) – Questionable but expected to play (Chest)
PHI Matchup Rating: 5.5
DAL Matchup Rating: 5.5
Philadelphia Eages
Quarterback: Carson Wentz has come crashing back down to earth after a hot start to his NFL career, and this is not uncommon with young quarterbacks. Even though the Eagles handed Minnesota their first loss a week ago, it wasn’t due to the arm of Wentz. He completed just 16 passes in the game for 138 yards with one touchdown and a pair of interceptions. He also lost a fumble in the game. This is the first big game of his career, a road contest on National TV against the first place, surging Cowboys and their own young quarterback in Dak Prescott. If you are choosing a cheap quarterback in this game, I would opt for the guy playing at home on the other side.
Running Backs: The Eagles have one of the lowest team totals of the week at a shade under 20 points. They have played games with their running back snaps all year long, and Ryan Mathews also lost a fumble in the game. Yeah, the Vikings/Eagles game was an ugly one with four turnovers on each side. I haven’t messed with this unit all year long, and I don’t plan on starting that now. Three guys are involved on a regular basis, and the playing time is in no way predictable. Pass.
Pass Catchers: Dallas does not exactly have an elite pass defense, as they are exploitable in the secondary and rank just 22nd in DVOA against the pass. However, I don’t trust Wentz right now. No receiver had more than 39 receiving yards a week ago, both Jordan Matthews and Zach Ertz have been quiet in recent weeks, and this is situation is almost impossible to peg. Matthews is all the way down to $6,000 on FanDuel and $5,700 on DraftKings, making him an intriguing GPP target. I don’t have much interest in anything else.
The Takeaway: Expect the run of low-scoring prime time games to continue, as this game has a very low Vegas total of just 43 points. I don’t really like anyone on the Eagles, as they are road underdogs against a good Dallas team. Carson Wentz is struggling, the running game is a time share mess, and none of the receivers are consistent. You can definitely use the Dallas defense as a mid-range option on most sites this week.
Dallas Cowboys
Quarterback: Well, this game will be a test for the young Dak Prescott. The positive news is that Dallas has had two full weeks to prepare for this game, while the Eagles are coming off a grueling contest against the Vikings. Dallas is also the home team here, and they have a major advantage with the extra rest. Dak Prescott has been thriving, and he has minimized mistakes virtually every week. Philadelphia leads the league in DVOA against the pass despite being fairly weak at cornerback, and Dallas will likely try to ride Ezekiel Elliott in this game. However, I expect the Eagles to stack the box and give Dallas man to man coverage on the outside. If Dallas is prepared for this, it could be a huge day for Dez Bryant in his return from a knee injury. It’s not the cash game decision of the week, but the Dak-to-Dez connection is a fantastic GPP bullet. Dez should be close to 100% coming off the bye, and I just have a hunch that he will be heavily involved here.
Running Backs: Even though Dallas has already had their bye week, Ezekiel Elliott still leads the league in rushing yards. He leads the league in 20+ yard runs. He’s sixth in yards per attempt. He’s tied for sixth in touchdowns. Yes, a lot of this is due to the elite offensive line that Dallas has, but the fact is that he has produced something virtually every time he has taken the field. Elliott won’t be the most popular play this week because of the matchup, but he certainly has a safe floor because he will get the ball 20 times, and the offensive line is still the best in the league. I am pretty much all around neutral with this situation, as I like the sneakiness of the passing game a little more with Dallas this week.
Pass Catchers: I laid out the case for Dez Bryant in the quarterback section, and perhaps I am talking myself into false hope. I just think that when you combine the bye week, the Eagles’ exploitable corners, Dez getting healthy, and the likelihood that the Eagles will stack the box to stop Elliott, you have the makings of a big game. Outside of Dez, there’s not a ton here. Cole Beasley will still see his share of underneath targets, but there’s little upside there. Jason Witten runs about as fast as me. It’s Dez or bust in the receiving corps this week, assuming he is fully cleared to play.
The Takeaway: Dak, Dez, and Zeke are all in play for the Cowboys as the Sunday Night hammers for your contests. I hope we at least get a good game here, and I think Dallas comes away with the victory. Expect Philadelphia to force Dallas to the air, and the Prescott/Bryant combination is one of my favorite low-owned GPP stacks of the week.
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
| Minnesota Vikings | Chicago Bears | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -6 | 40.5 | 23.25 | 6 | 40.5 | 17.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 21.5 | 18 | 25 | 31 | Offense | 15.9 | 32 | 12 | 25 | |
| Opp. Defense | 24.1 | 20 | 15 | 17 | Opp. Defense | 14.0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Chicago Bears | 19 | 4 | 32 | 10 | Minnesota Vikings | 5 | 7 | 2 | 12 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Diggs | 39 | 27 | 1 | 390 | Jeffery | 55 | 32 | 0 | 520 | |
| Thielen | 30 | 22 | 1 | 324 | Royal | 37 | 29 | 2 | 338 | |
| Johnson | 16 | 6 | 0 | 92 | Meredith | 37 | 27 | 1 | 307 | |
| Rudolph | 48 | 26 | 3 | 291 | Miller | 44 | 33 | 3 | 305 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Will be updated on Saturday evening
MIN Matchup Rating: 6.0
CHI Matchup Rating: 2.5
Minnesota Vikings
Quarterback: Sam Bradford was pretty much a disaster against the Eagles last Sunday. He threw for just 224 yards and one touchdown, but the frightening part is that he threw an interception and fumbled the ball FOUR times, losing two of them. If Minnesota gets out to a lead in this game, which they should, Sam Bradford will turn into an Alex Smith type game manager. There are better options in DFS this week, even though the Vikings are the favored team.
Running Backs: Theoretically, this is where the potential game script would tell us to go. If Minnesota is playing with a lead, they should run the ball 28-32 times in this game. However, the carries have been pretty evenly split between Matt Asiata and Jerick McKinnon in recent weeks. Neither guy has performed that well, with both of them averaging less than 3.5 yards per carry on the season. McKinnon is more likely to break the big play, making him the preferred GPP option. Asiata is goal line and touchdown dependent and isn’t worth your time. Both of them do come cheap, however. I will likely land on a little bit of McKinnon this week.
Pass Catchers: Stefon Diggs might still be operating at less than 100%, or perhaps he has just been a victim of Bradford’s recent struggles. In any case, he has been very quiet since his breakout game against the Packers. Adam Thielen and Cordarrelle Patterson have been the primary wide receiver threats over the past few weeks. The snap distribution last week was 67 for Thielen, 61 for Diggs, and 51 for Patterson. If that continues, expect Thielen to continue to be a reasonable value target. He has certainly earned a role. Kyle Rudolph seems to be the safety valve for Bradford, as he saw 11 targets against the Eagles. There are places you can look here, but don’t go overboard.
The Takeaway: The struggling Sam Bradford is not a fantasy option. The run game is in play, but it’s hard to pick between McKinnon and Asiata given their virtual 50/50 time share. In the receiving game, it’s hard to trust Stefon Diggs right now. He still seems a bit over-priced. Adam Thielen is in play as a dirt cheap value at wide receiver, as is Kyle Rudolph at tight end. Rudolph’s price never budges even though he seems to be a primary read for Bradford on a lot of plays. He saw 11 targets a week ago.
Chicago Bears
Quarterback: This is the last game of the week, my wrists are tired, and the awful Bears are taking on the 5-1 Vikings — who just might have the best all around defense in the NFL. They forced four turnovers in a loss last week, and that loss was in no way the fault of the defense. Jay Cutler is back, and we all know that he is turnover prone. The Bears have the lowest team total of the week at 17.5 points, and they are six point underdogs at home. That should tell you all you need to know.
Running Backs: Jordan Howard has lost carries to Ka’Deem Carey over the past two weeks, and Jeremy Langford returned to practice on Tuesday. This has the makings of a mess that you don’t want any part of, especially in the most difficult of matchups. The Bears will also likely be playing from behind in this game. Pass.
Pass Catchers: The one beneficiary of Cutler’s return should be Alshon Jeffery. Cutler is more apt to force the ball to his top receiver, and that’s good news for Alshon. If the Bears are behind in this game, they are likely to be chucking the ball a lot, too. If I target one Chicago player, and that’s a major if, Jeffery will be that guy. I have no interest in Cameron Meredith, Eddie Royal (if he plays), or Zach Miller against a really good defense.
The Takeaway: You can most likely avoid this whole offense and feel good about it. If you go for anyone, taking a chance on the game flow with Alshon Jeffery is the way to go. The Minnesota defense is the best choice here.
