NFL Grind Down: Week 9

by LeoTPP Last Updated 2015-11-11 00:02:13

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.

Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.

Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.

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Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers

Green Bay Packers						Carolina Panthers
Sunday – 1 p.m.						Bank of America Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-2.5	46	24.25				2.5	46	21.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	24.9	10	29	13		Offense	27.3	4	31	2
Opp. Defense	19.4	10	7	20		Opp. Defense	18.6	6	20	25
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Carolina Panthers	4	22	6	12		Green Bay Packers	10	18	9	25
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Cobb	56	36	4	399		Brown	23	14	2	216
Adams	17	10	0	100		Ginn	47	20	3	386
Jones	31	22	6	426		Funchess	21	7	0	90
Rodgers	34	23	2	216		Olsen	62	33	4	518

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Ty Montgomery (GB, Questionable)

GB Matchup Rating: 5.5
CAR Matchup Rating: 5.0

Green Bay Packers

Quarterback: In a matchup of two of the NFC’s best teams, the Packers will head to Carolina to face a very tough Carolina pass defense. It’s impossible to count out Aaron Rodgers (FD $8,900, DK $7,400), but the Panthers rank second in Football Outsiders DVOA against the pass, and have allowed the fourth-fewest points per game to the position this season. They force turnovers from quarterbacks and limit touchdown upside, which leaves little reason to roster Rodgers in a cash game this week. He’s always viable in tournaments, as he’s the best quarterback in the league, but he’s not on that same elite level this season with a banged-up offense around him, and with some tough matchups already under his belt. Things will get better for Rodgers, but this isn’t the week to bank on a bounce back. Spend up for Brady, or drop down a bit to Rivers, Brees or Big Ben instead.

Running Game: A game against Denver is hardly indicative of what the Packers are capable of on offense, but we saw Eddie Lacy (FD $6,700, DK $6,100) get a majority of the touches out of the backfield last week, and he found the end zone for the first time since Week 1. And while a lot has been made about LeGarrette Blount and his matchup with a weak interior defense from Washington, the Panthers offer a similar opportunity with a lot less attention from the daily fantasy masses. Luke Kuechly is one of the best players in the NFL, and Kawann Short has been a star this season on the interior of the line for the Panthers. But the rest of their front seven has graded out as average at best according to PFF this season, and it shows in the way they allow rushing yards.

So far this year, runners have 115 carries for 489 yards and four scores against Carolina on runs off of either guard or up the middle, for a 4.25 average. Runs to the outside have resulted in 70/272/2, or a 3.89 average. Eddie Lacy has more carries up the middle than James Starks (FD $5,800, DK $4,200), and Starks has only 65 yards on 26 carries against interior defenders, as he’s done more of his work on the outside. That’s a bad spot to be in against the Panthers, as their linebackers and defensive backs are quick to get to the ball and make plays on runs that stretch to the outside, but they can be beaten by direct, hard runs up the middle. Both Doug Martin and Marshawn Lynch averaged over four yards per attempt and scored on runs up the middle against Carolina, and I suspect Lacy will as well, making him an appealing tournament play this week.

Pass Catchers: When picking a wideout against the Panthers, job one is to avoid Josh Norman in coverage. Norman does not spend much time in the slot, which means Randall Cobb (FD $7,400, DK $6,800) should find himself with an easier matchup against Bene Benwikere more often than not. It’s unclear how the Panthers will use Norman if they’re not having him track inside with Cobb, but it would break from their norm for him to play a majority of his snaps covering a slot receiver. I really like Cobb this week as a result, as many fantasy analysts and players are assuming that, as Green Bay’s best receiver, Cobb will see Norman in this game. The Panthers could shock us and line Norman up against Cobb on every down, and if that happens, Cobb is the lesser talent and will struggle to have a big game. That’s enough of a doubt to avoid him in cash games, but he’s an excellent tournament option. Norman will instead likely spend his time covering the outside receivers for the Packers, who are not in play for this game.

The Takeaway: If you believe the Panthers are going to stick to their guns with Josh Norman and play him on the outside only, Randall Cobb is a tournament option. Eddie Lacy is, as well, as he’ll face an interior rushing defense that has been a bit more prone to consistent production than the outside run defenders for Carolina. Otherwise, I find it hard to trust the Packers against one of the league’s best defenses.

Carolina Panthers

Quarterback: The Packers have a top-10 pass defense according to DVOA and fantasy points allowed per game, but have historically struggled against running quarterbacks. Jay Cutler ran for 30 yards against them in Week 1, as did Alex Smith in Week 3, while Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick both averaged over 5.5 YPC on 10 carries against Green Bay. Cam Newton (FD $7,900, DK $6,900) is maybe the best runner of the bunch, and should generate a nice scoring floor with 50-60 rushing yards this week. How he’ll do as a passer is another question, as the Packers have allowed multiple touchdowns only twice this season to opposing quarterbacks. Newton had very low ownership in FanDuel Thursday-lock contests, and I believe his chances at a big game are bigger than his small ownership numbers, and he deserves a spot on a tournament roster or two. But the Packers are a tough enough matchup to stay away in cash games, despite a healthy amount of fantasy points consistency from Newton this season.

Running Game: The Packers have a poor run defense according to the advanced statistics, as numberFire ranks them 29th, and Football Outsiders rank them 25th. This hasn’t resulted in a ton of fantasy points allowed to the position, but part of that is due to game flow, and part of that is due to level of competition. C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman combined for over 160 yards in Week 8, while Matt Forte and Todd Gurley both went well over 100 yards against the Packers in their matchups. And even if he’s not the most efficient back in the world, Jonathan Stewart (FD $6,600, DK $4,300) is going to get every opportunity to run against this Green Bay defense this week. He has at least 20 carries in each of the last three games, including a tough matchup with the Seahawks, so it’s clear that the Panthers are committed to getting him involved. That level of volume is valuable in DFS, especially against a vulnerable run defense. He is a very nice tournament option at a cheap price, and although his upside is limited by his inefficiency and his quarterback’s running ability, he’s a threat to score two or three touchdowns and win a GPP for those who roster him.

Pass Catchers: It may be stubborn, and it may let me down eventually, but I no longer have any interest in Panthers pass catchers not named Greg Olsen (FD $6,400, DK $6,500). Ted Ginn (FD $5,300, DK $3,500) caught two of his ten targets last time out, including some brutal drops. If I was convinced the Panthers would give those targets to a reliable player like Jerricho Cotchery (FD $4,600, DK $3,000), I’d spend some of my DFS salary to roster him. But Cotchery is a reserve for this team, and until he (or someone else) can step up and take targets away from Ginn, I’m going to stick to Olsen or no one from this pass-catching group. The Packers have allowed 50 or more yards to four tight ends this season, but only two touchdowns to the position. This is a neutral matchup for Olsen, but he’s always viable in tournaments as a “spend up to be contrarian” play.

The Takeaway: Cam Newton, Jonathan Stewart and Greg Olsen are all viable tournament options, but none should be trusted in cash games. This will be one of the most interesting games to watch this weekend, but don’t expect any offensive fireworks.

Washington Redskins at New England Patriots

Washington Redskins						New England Patriots
Sunday – 1 p.m.						Gillette Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		14	52	19				-14	52	33
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	21.1	21	22	26		Offense	35.6	1	3	31
Opp. Defense	19.0	8	23	7		Opp. Defense	24.0	16	11	30
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
New England Patriots	24	9	28	6		Washington Redskins	14	10	20	7
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Garcon	57	37	3	350		Edelman	75	52	6	607
Grant	31	17	1	194		LaFell	15	6	0	72
Jackson	1	0	0	0		Amendola	32	26	2	303
Reed	47	35	3	350		Gronkowski	63	40	7	646

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: DeSean Jackson (WAS, Questionable), Chris Thompson (WAS, Probable), Dion Lewis, Julian Edelman (NE, Probable)

WAS Matchup Rating: 3.0
NE Matchup Rating: 8.0

Washington Redskins

Quarterback: Kirk Cousins (FD $6,600, DK $5,100) may have been yelling directly at me when he shouted “You like that?!?!” following his three-touchdown performance against the terrible Tampa Bay defense. (Not really, but I have been pretty vocal about my thoughts on Cousins as a subpar NFL quarterback). Outside of Week 7’s anomaly, Cousins has been poor this season, never throwing more than one touchdown in a game, and picking up eight interceptions in his first six outings. Things should return to normal against the Patriots this weekend, as New England is one of the best teams in the league when it comes to getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and Cousins is one of the worst passers under pressure in the NFL. Jameis Winston and Tyrod Taylor are far superior cheap passers for this weekend’s slate.

Running Game: Remember Chris Thompson (FD $5,500, DK $3,300)? A lot of players on FanDuel didn’t on Thursday-lock contests, and that might be a big mistake. The Patriots rank 22nd in DVOA against running backs in the passing game, and Thompson will step right back into his role as the pass catcher from the RB position for Washington. He had six or more catches in three of his last four games before missing out due to injury, but he should be back and ready to go in a game his team will likely be trailing throughout. He’s a fantastic option on DraftKings, where he’ll be higher owned than on FanDuel, but still may not be as heavily rostered as he should be. The other Washington backs can be ignored, as their team will likely lose this game by two or more touchdowns and will not have enough volume to go around in an already split backfield.

Pass Catchers: DeSean Jackson (FD $5,600, DK $5,700) is likely to return to the pass-catching corps for Washington, which makes it significantly more difficult to figure out who to roster. The Patriots have allowed the fifth-most points per game to opposing wideouts this season, and notably struggle against opposing team’s number one wide receivers according to DVOA. Antonio Brown, Sammy Watkins and T.Y. Hilton had three of the better fantasy performances against the Patriot defense this season, and that sets up well for Jackson, who has game-breaking speed and is, for all intents and purposes, the top receiver for Washington. His return will split the possession receiver work between Pierre Garcon (FD $6,300, DK $5,000) and Jamison Crowder (FD $5,700, DK $3,700), as well as cut into the volume of Jordan Reed (FD $5,700, DK $4,500). I don’t think this passing offense has a ton of success, and there’s no clear-cut player who will see the high-value targets. Jackson is an interesting tournament play if he suits up, but otherwise, I’m staying away from this passing game.

The Takeaway: Chris Thompson and DeSean Jackson will fly under the radar and may present good value, but this one is going to be a blowout, and Washington may struggle to get anything going on offense. They’re projected to score only 19 points, and have one of the slowest paces in the league.

New England Patriots

Quarterback: According to both numberFire and Football Outsiders, Washington are below average in every defensive category. Other than Matt Ryan, who inexplicably failed to find the end zone in a one-score win against Jay Gruden’s team earlier this year, passers find the end zone and don’t get picked off by this defense. But you don’t need matchup numbers to justify spending on Tom Brady (FD $9,500, DK $8,500). You just need to value plays to fit him into your lineup. Those are available this week, and you can put Brady in cash game lineups if you feel comfortable with your roster after spending big at his position.

Running Game: It used to be tricky to play running backs against this defense, as they were a better run-stopping unit than many gave credit for, but those days are gone. Devonta Freeman, Chris Ivory and Doug Martin have torched Washington for 130+ yards in each of their last three games, and Football Outsiders ranks them 23rd against the run. You’ll hear a lot of people tell you that LeGarrette Blount (FD $6,400, DK $4,800) is the play, as the “bigger back” will run between the tackles and cut through a terrible interior defense. And while it is true that Washington struggles to defend inside runs (30th in Adjusted Line Yards on interior rushes, according to Football Outsiders), they also rank 31st in runs to the right end, and 18th on runs to the left end, which combine to make up nearly a third of the runs against them this season. Dion Lewis (FD $7,400, DK $6,400) is a superior talent with better vision and a more well-rounded skill set, and I will always trust him over Blount, especially on PPR sites. So far this season, Lewis has 31 carries for 144 yards on runs classified as off the left or right guard, or up the middle, while Blount has 43 for 180. There’s room for both players in a “run up the middle” offensive gameplan, and I’ll hang my hat on the better player.

Pass Catchers: All sorts of receivers have fared well against Washington so far this season, with big games coming from obvious names like Brandon Marshall and Odell Beckham, but also from Riley Cooper and Rueben Randle. Julian Edelman (FD $8,000, DK $8,200) has seen nine or more targets in all but one game this season, but will face a fairly tough foe in the slot as Bashaud Breeland is one of the better corners in the NFL. He’ll play against Edelman on only a portion of the snaps, however, and the Patriots’ possession receiver should be fine regardless, as he knows how to get open, and his coaches call smart plays for him on a regular basis. But his price is somewhat prohibitive, especially if you want to get Brady into your lineup, so I am going to recommend Brandon LaFell (FD $5,200, DK $3,200) as the tournament stack of choice with Brady. Despite his issues with drops, he’s seen 15 targets over his first two games, and will see a lot of Chris Culliver in coverage. All he needs is one touchdown to hit value on either site, and I think that’s a strong possibility this weekend in what should be a five-touchdown day for the New England offense. And of course, Rob Gronkowski (FD $8,500, DK $8,000) is a great option, especially against a defense that allowed 94 yards to Jacob Tamme a few weeks ago, and that ranks 22nd in DVOA against tight ends. If you don’t have Brady in a cash lineup, you should try to fit Gronkowski’s salary in there instead.

The Takeaway: The Patriots are going to score early and often in this one, and the money-making question will be figuring out who the players in the end zone will be. Brady, Lewis, Blount, Edelman, Gronkowski, LaFell and Danny Amendola are all in play, but I prefer Brady, Lewis and Gronk for cash games, and LaFell for tournaments only.

Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints

Tennessee Titans						New Orleans Saints
Sunday – 1 p.m.						Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		7.5	48	20.25				-7.5	48	27.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	17.9	31	24	24		Offense	26.6	6	2	17
Opp. Defense	29.3	30	29	24		Opp. Defense	22.7	14	3	21
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
New Orleans Saints	32	25	23	27		Tennessee Titans	12	4	12	19
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Wright	46	28	3	364		Colston	40	27	1	334
Douglas	23	9	1	75		Cooks	66	41	3	529
Hunter	23	15	0	200		Snead	53	36	3	537
Walker	44	35	1	361		Watson	48	38	3	472

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Kendall Wright (TEN, Out), Willie Snead (NO, Probable)

TEN Matchup Rating: 4.0
NO Matchup Rating: 7.5

Tennessee Titans

Quarterback: The Titans are taking things very, very slow with their rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota (FD $7,100, DK $5,300), especially after seeing how poorly he performed while playing hurt just a few weeks ago. Mariota started the season with three solid performances against three bad pass defenses, but followed it up with a lackluster outing against the Bills and an injury-impacted poor showing against the Dolphins. Will the Mariota from Weeks 1-3 return in a great matchup against the Saints this week? Or has he taken a step back and returned to Earth, especially now that he’s dealt with his first major injury of his career? I’m going to lean toward a return to form, mainly due to how poor the Saints’ pass defense has been of late. They have allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season, and rank 32nd in Football Outsiders pass defense and recent-performance-weighted overall defense, as well as numberFire’s overall and pass defense metrics. Over their last four games, the Saints have allowed 13 touchdowns through the air, with 333 or more passing yards in three of the four contests. Mariota might not go for 333 yards and three scores, but at his price, you’ll be fine with 250 and two touchdowns with a couple of runs mixed in. This seems like a floor against this porous New Orleans defense. Mariota had incredibly low ownership in Thursday-lock contests, and while that may go up if we get 100% confirmation that he’ll start this week, I still suspect he’ll be a contrarian play for tournaments.

Running Game: The Titans have supposedly settled on a primary running back under new head coach Mike Mularkey, and that running back is Antonio Andrews (FD $5,700, DK $3,600). After handling short-yardage and goal-line work for his first few appearances this season (after being inactive for the first two games), Andrews saw his carries climb steadily to a peak of 16 in Week 8 against Houston. Other Tennessee running backs saw only three carries in that game, which saw the Titans trail most of the way. The Saints are not quite as bad against the run as they have been against the pass (22nd in DVOA, 16th in numberFire), but they have allowed four different backs to go for 60+ yards and a touchdown. That seems to be a median projection for Andrews, which is just about what you need to pay off his price tag. That makes him a player to consider as an option, but not one to be excited about due to his limited ceiling.

Pass Catchers: Kendall Wright has been the Titans’ leading receiver this season, but he’ll miss out on this week’s game. That makes things a lot more complicated at the wide receiver position for Tennessee. Obviously tight end Delanie Walker (FD $5,500, DK $4,200) is someone to consider, as he’s second on the team in targets and plays a big role in the offense. But if Mariota is going to throw for at least 250 yards and two touchdowns, someone else is going to get production at a very low price. Who is it? Lots of fantasy/draft experts are hoping a coaching change means more of Dorial Green-Beckham (FD $4,900, DK $3,100), the talented but controversial prospect who has yet to really get his chance to play regular snaps. Justin Hunter (FD $4,600, DK $3,000) has the most secure role in terms of snaps played with Wright out, and Harry Douglas (FD $4,500, DK $3,000) will also see a bump in playing time. But the Titans are going to roll with multiple tight ends as often as they can, which means we’re unlikely to see three wideouts on a regular basis. Douglas and Hunter have their fair share of inconsistencies, but Hunter has more natural talent, and would be my preferred choice of the two likely to play the most snaps. Green-Beckham is a wild card, as he could only play 30% of the snaps, but if those 30% come on passing downs in Saints territory, it could lead to a touchdown and a nice return on investment. I’ll stick to Walker in most lineups where I feel compelled to go with a Tennessee pass catcher, but will use Hunter and DGB in one or two lineups this weekend.

The Takeaway: The Titans have lots of question marks on offense, but if Mariota starts and Hunter and Douglas are the “starting” receivers, I like Mariota and Walker as preferred tournament plays, while Hunter and Andrews are secondary options.

New Orleans Saints

Quarterback: Over the past couple of weeks, I’ve broken down the Tennessee defense in the Grind Down to prove that, despite decent DvP numbers, they’re actually not a very good team on that side of the ball. They play at a slow tempo, and get blown out on a regular basis, so their overall numbers don’t look all that bad. But when teams are still competing against them, they can move the ball at will. And after what Drew Brees (FD $8,500, DK $7,200) and company did last week, I find it hard to keep him out of at least a few of my lineups in Week 9. Brees has always had very strong home splits, and this year has been no different after he had a record-setting performance at home last week. The veteran QB is worthy of a spot in your cash or tournament lineups this weekend.

Running Game: The Texans in Week 8 and the Bills in Week 5 did not have healthy, stable running back situations when facing Tennessee, but among the teams that did (the Bucs, Browns, Colts, Dolphins and Falcons), four of five teams rushed for over 90 yards with their backs, and three of five found the end zone. The Saints have a very settled backfield with Mark Ingram (FD $7,700, DK $6,500) taking a majority of the work with Khiry Robinson sidelined with an unfortunate injury. C.J. Spiller (FD $5,500, DK $3,100) will see his volume bump a little, as well, but in what should be an easy win for the Saints, I prefer Ingram as the team’s better goal-line back and second-half clock-killer. Among backs to “pay up” for this week, Ingram might be the best of the bunch.

Pass Catchers: If elite Drew Brees is back, that means our options at receiver have become a lot more appealing in this New Orleans offense. I’m not sure we’re going to be record-setting passing numbers from Brees from here on out, but he’s obviously more comfortable with his current crop of pass catchers. Brandin Cooks (FD $7,100, DK $5,800) and Willie Snead (FD $6,100, DK $4,800) are the team’s top wideouts, and both hauled in a pair of touchdowns last week. Cooks has the bigger target share this season, but Snead has come on strong lately and still holds a more appealing price tag. Marques Colston (FD $5,500, DK $3,400) returned from obscurity to post a huge game against the Giants, but shouldn’t be trusted, as four catches for 69 yards was his best performance in his previous six appearances. Opposing team’s top receivers (Benjamin, Hopkins, Jones) have had the biggest games against the Titans this season, but names like Hogan, Matthews and Washington show up high on the list of fantasy point outings against Tennessee, as well. Oh, and we can’t forget about Benjamin Watson (FD $5,700, DK $4,000), who faces a defense that has allowed two multi-touchdown games to tight ends (Week 1 to Austin Seferian-Jenkins, and Week 6 to the Miami tandem of Sims and Cameron). For daily fantasy purposes, I’ll take Cooks, Watson, Snead and Colston in that order, but none are trustworthy for cash games thanks to how easy it should be for Brees to spread the ball around against a lacking secondary for the Titans.

The Takeaway: The Saints are poised for another explosive offensive outing at home against the Titans, and apart from uncertainty as to who will catch Brees’ passes, this is a great offense to target in all formats this weekend.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills

Miami Dolphins						Buffalo Bills
Sunday – 1 p.m.						Ralph Wilson Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		3	44	20.5				-3	44	23.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	22.0	18	14	22		Offense	25.1	9	23	12
Opp. Defense	24.7	18	14	6		Opp. Defense	24.7	18	18	25
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Buffalo Bills	20	12	28	16		Miami Dolphins	19	20	26	17
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Landry	64	42	3	543		Watkins	18	11	2	147
Matthews	47	33	4	500		Harvin	30	19	1	249
Stills	25	13	1	205		Woods	36	26	2	295
Cameron	43	19	1	257		Clay	51	34	2	350

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Jordan Cameron (MIA, Questionable), Percy Harvin (BUF, Out), Sammy Watkins (BUF, Questionable)

MIA Matchup Rating: 4.5
BUF Matchup Rating: 6.0

Miami Dolphins

Quarterback: People were quick to praise the Dolphins after back-to-back wins under new coach Dan Campbell, but were quick to say “same old Dolphins” after a brutal loss to the Patriots. I tend to believe they’ve done what they’ve been expected to do over the last three weeks, and a rematch with the Bills provides a good litmus test for where this team is at under their new leadership. Ryan Tannehill (FD $7,400, DK $5,700) looked great in his first two games under Campbell, and was one of the more productive players on a struggling offense during the first quarter of the team’s season, as well. The Bills just aren’t quite as good as we thought they were entering the season from a defensive standpoint, as their overall defensive rating, weighted for recent performances, ranks in the middle of the pack according to Football Outsiders. With the exception of Marcus Mariota, quarterbacks have thrown for two or more scores against the Bills in every game this season, Tannehill included. His three interceptions in that game aren’t ideal, but if he can throw for 300 yards and two touchdowns again, he’ll be a solid fantasy play this weekend. Tannehill is one of the smarter contrarian options this weekend at quarterback.

Running Game: The Bills allowed T.J. Yeldon to run for 115 yards and a touchdown in Week 7, calling into question everything we previously knew about Rex Ryan’s run defense. Prior to their trip to London, the Bills had not allowed more than 56 yards rushing to any one back, and had given up just three rushing touchdowns on the year. The team still ranks 18th in points allowed to backs after Yeldon’s performance, but according to Football Outsiders, this is the easiest team to pass to running backs against in the NFL. Lamar Miller (FD $6,900, DK $5,000) has a small but fairly consistent role in the Miami passing game, and should also see a decent amount of carries against a defense that might have taken a step back when it comes to defending the run. I don’t trust him as a top play, but like Tannehill, he’s a smart contrarian play on a weekend with a ton of obvious options.

Pass Catchers: According to Football Outsiders, the Bills shut down opposing team’s top receivers, but allow more production to second receivers, and even more to third, fourth and fifth options. It’s always tough to know how to classify Jarvis Landry (FD $7,000, DK $6,300), as he’s his team’s top option at receiver, but he works out of the slot most of the time. Slot receivers Julian Edelman and Dwayne Harris both found the end zone against the Bills, and Landry himself had eight receptions for 67 yards in their previous tilt. His role as a slot WR matches him up with Nickell Roby, whose PFF player grade is nearly half that of his partners at the outside corner positions. Stephon Gilmore followed receivers into the slot for the first two weeks, but hasn’t done so since, according to Pro Football Focus. This is great news for Landry, who gets the best matchup and is the best receiver on Miami’s roster. He’s a top play in all formats. No other Miami pass catcher merits consideration, as the Buffalo defense has tons of talent at defensive back, and Landry has such a secure, valuable role that none of his colleagues possess. Rishard Matthews (FD $6,500, DK $4,500) scored twice in garbage time against the Bills in their last meeting, but with garbage time unlikely in this one, I don’t trust him to get good opportunities against great defensive backs.

The Takeaway: Jarvis Landry is a top play, while Ryan Tannehill and Lamar Miller are risky but viable tournament plays. No other Miami players are worth your time and effort this week.

Buffalo Bills

Quarterback: Just over a month ago, Tyrod Taylor (FD $7,200, DK $5,300) threw for three touchdowns against this Miami defense. Since then, the Dolphins appeared to buckle down a bit against the pass, but then allowed seven scores through the air over the past two weeks. Now they have to face Taylor again, this time on his home turf. Taylor is a welcome sight for Bills fans sick of EJ Manuel and the frustrating offense being run with Taylor on the sideline. Miami is a below-average pass defense that has limited a couple of struggling quarterback this season (a hurt Marcus Mariota and a bad Kirk Cousins had two of the worst performances against them), but Taylor has proven that he’s a capable NFL quarterback with fantasy upside as a runner, and we can fire him up this week in any format.

Running Game: Over his last two games since returning from injury, LeSean McCoy (FD $7,800, DK $5,500) has resumed his role in the offense in terms of touches, and should be locked into 15-20 opportunities from here on out. The reason for optimism for this week and beyond is the presence of Taylor in the backfield, as the running quarterback helps provide an extra element for the defense to consider. McCoy saw a season-high four red zone rushes against the Bengals in Week 6, and carried one of those attempts home for a score. If we could predict another 4-6 red zone rushes, McCoy would be an attractive play this weekend. But he has only 11 such attempts on the season, and so predicting another handful is speculative and risky, but could pay off. He’s a mediocre tournament play.

Pass Catchers: If you’ve read any articles or watched any videos this week in preparation for the slate ahead, you’ve undoubtedly heard all about the Charles Clay (FD $5,700, DK $4,200) revenge game. The former Miami tight end scored a touchdown in the two teams’ previous meeting this season, and followed it up with a 100-yard performance the week after. But he also has four games this season with five or fewer targets, and will likely be battling the returning Sammy Watkins (FD $6,200, DK $5,000) for targets in the passing offense. I think both players are great tournament options, but neither is safe enough to trust in a cash game lineup. It’s possible that Brent Grimes could keep track of Watkins as a shadow in this game, which would greatly reduce his potential fantasy output, so I prefer Clay if I’m getting a piece of this passing game from a pass catcher perspective.

The Takeaway: Tyrod Taylor is a great value option at quarterback, and LeSean McCoy, Charles Clay and Sammy Watkins are all viable in tournaments.

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