NFL Grind Down: Week 9 - Page Two

by LeoTPP Last Updated 2015-11-06 22:18:53

St. Louis Rams at Minnesota Vikings

St. Louis Rams						Minnesota Vikings
Sunday – 1 p.m.						Mall of America Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		2	39.5	18.75				-2	39.5	20.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	19.3	28	32	7		Offense	21.0	22	30	9
Opp. Defense	17.4	2	10	15		Opp. Defense	17.9	4	12	9
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Minnesota Vikings	8	5	10	24		St. Louis Rams	2	15	4	9
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Britt	26	12	1	224		Wallace	42	26	1	292
Austin	39	24	6	426		Diggs	40	25	2	428
Quick	5	2	0	15		Johnson	11	8	0	102
Cook	35	19	0	245		Rudolph	32	20	3	145

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Tre Mason (STL, Questionable), Stefon Diggs (MIN, Probable)

STL Matchup Rating: 2.0
MIN Matchup Rating: 2.5

St. Louis Rams

Quarterback: These two teams boast two of the four lowest matchup ratings on the weekend, have two of the slowest paces on the weekend, and have the lowest game total of the weekend. Nick Foles (FD $6,300, DK $5,100) is among a handful of players in this game who will start, but should not appear in any of your lineups. The Vikings rank 26th in points allowed to quarterbacks, and while the underlying stats imply that they’re not actually that good against the pass as a defensive unit, they have kept opposing quarterbacks in check in relatively low-scoring games so far this season. Foles had a three-touchdown explosion against the Cardinals in Week 4, and has thrown four touchdowns and five interceptions in his other six starts. Don’t roster him this week.

Running Game: Todd Gurley (FD $9,000, DK $6,900) is a transcendent talent at the running back position. He’s a truly special player facing a defense that has been generally good against the run this season, but that has had the good fortune of facing the Lions twice, the Bears without Matt Forte for a good chunk of the game, and the Chiefs after Jamaal Charles was injured. When facing legitimate running backs like Carlos Hyde and Ronnie Hillman, they were gashed for big gains and big yardage totals. Gurley will do the same. He’s priced appropriately on FanDuel and is tough to justify as a must-play there, but he’s in consideration. On DraftKings he’s a core value play, as he’s still priced like a “very good” back instead of being priced as an “elite” back.

Pass Catchers: Tavon Austin (FD $5,700, DK $4,800) has five or more touches in every game this season, but has never had more than eight. He gets a handful of plays called for him, and he has the ability to score on any one of those plays. He’s not a cash game play in any circumstance, but he’s a great tournament option this week. Someone has to score in this game, and Austin is second to Gurley on the Rams’ list of players who might find the end zone. No other Rams pass catcher should be on your radar.

The Takeaway: Todd Gurley is a star running back and you can play him wherever you can afford him, and Tavon Austin can break a game open with his big play ability. No one else on this offense is a fantasy asset worthy of a spot in your lineups.

Minnesota Vikings

Quarterback: The Rams rank in the top five in nearly every defensive category I track while doing research, as they have are third in DVOA against the run, and fourth against the pass. They’re second in overall defense according to numberFire, while ranking fifth against the run, and third against the pass. Only one team has allowed fewer fantasy points per game to quarterbacks (Denver), and Teddy Bridgewater (FD $6,700, DK $5,100) isn’t going to be the guy who changes that trend this week.

Running Game: Adrian Peterson (FD $8,400, DK $7,300) was Todd Gurley before Todd Gurley was taking classes in high school. Now he’s a veteran about to hit the decline at the end of his career, but not before he posts more incredible numbers to pad his stat sheet even more. He’s gone over 100 yards three times this season, and while he hasn’t been finding the end zone, it’s not for lack of trying. He ranks third in the league in red zone rushing attempts and fifth in percentage of team rushing attempts inside the opponent’s 20. Eight of the 13 players with 55% or more of their team’s red zone carries have three or more touchdowns in that situation. Peterson has only one score on a carry that started 20 yards or fewer from the opponent’s end zone. He’ll regress to the mean before this season is over, but a tough matchup against the Rams isn’t the best spot to bank on that regression. He’s still in play for tournaments, especially with all the value available this weekend.

Pass Catchers: I am sure that people will go back to the well with Stefon Diggs (FD $7,400, DK $5,300) this weekend. He’s seen nine or more targets in each of his four appearances, and has touchdowns in back-to-back games. But he’ll see a healthy amount of Janoris Jenkins in coverage, who PFF has graded as a Pro Bowl caliber player this season. No other St. Louis corner presents any easier matchup, so I’ll stay away from this passing attack.

The Takeaway: The Vikings are in a very tough spot against a great St. Louis defense. Adrian Peterson is matchup-proof, but no other player should be considered for daily fantasy lineups.

Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets

Jacksonville Jaguars						New York Jets
Sunday – 1 p.m.						MetLife Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		7.5	42	17.25				-7.5	42	24.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	21.0	22	19	28		Offense	24.6	11	20	10
Opp. Defense	19.9	12	6	1		Opp. Defense	29.6	31	25	14
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
New York Jets	9	2	14	10		Jacksonville Jaguars	25	27	16	13
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Robinson	69	34	6	586		Marshall	78	50	4	686
Hurns	51	31	5	513		Decker	45	30	5	393
Lee	6	3	0	52		Kerley	20	13	2	123
Thomas	20	10	1	102		Cumberland	10	4	0	33

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Julius Thomas, Allen Hurns (JAC, Probable), Bilal Powell (NYJ, Doubtful), Brandon Marshall (NYJ, Questionable), Eric Decker, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Chris Ivory (NYJ, Probable)

JAC Matchup Rating: 3.0
NYJ Matchup Rating: 5.0

Jacksonville Jaguars

Quarterback: There are several games with relatively high totals and fun options on both sides of the ball on this weekend’s slate. This is not one of those games. The Jets were carved up by Derek Carr in Week 8 and Tom Brady in Week 7, but had held every other quarterback to no more than 250 yards and no more than two touchdowns in their first five games. They forced eight interceptions in those five games, as well. They need a “get right” game, and a date with the mistake-prone Blake Bortles (FD $7,600, DK $5,400) should do the trick. Bortles has played well at times this season, but he is still a bit unreliable, with a low completion percentage and a slightly above average interception rate. Even after slipping a bit over their last two games, the Jets are still ranked as one of the toughest matchups for passing attacks. Avoid Bortles this week in a tough road game.

Running Game: If you do think the Jaguars score a few points and want to get creative with a tournament lineup, don’t invest in the running game. T.J. Yeldon (FD $6,400, DK $4,800) has been inefficient behind a weak offensive line, and the Jets have the top DVOA run defense. Only once this season has a back run for a touchdown against the Jets, and that was Darren Sproles in Week 3. It’s possible that Yeldon could gain a few yards as a receiver out of the backfield, but there’s not enough of a role there to justify using him in DFS.

Pass Catchers: According to Mike Clay of Pro Football Focus, the Jets have been using Darrelle Revis in a shadow role for most of the season. This week, with an obvious star receiver on the other side of the field, it would make sense to see Revis lined up against Allen Robinson (FD $7,200, DK $6,400). Robinson has been very good this season, but so has Revis, and this isn’t a situation to spend too much time trying to talk yourself into the young Jacksonville receiver. PFF grades Revis in the upper 80s on a 1-100 scale, while the other New York corners come in as 40s. Go with Allen Hurns (FD $6,800, DK $5,300) if you want a Jacksonville receiver this weekend, or Julius Thomas (FD $5,600, DK $4,200) as a very, very sneaky tournament play at tight end. Neither should be on anything resembling a majority of your teams, but sprinkle them in here and there for some truly contrarian plays with upside.

The Takeaway: Stacking Blake Bortles with Hurns or Thomas would be way off the radar, but worth a shot just in case the Jets’ recent woes against the pass are a sign of things to come. Otherwise, steer clear of this offense this weekend.

New York Jets

Quarterback: Ryan Fitzpatrick (FD $7,500, DK $5,200) is hurt, but even with an injured hand, he’s still the preferred option under center for the Jets. If he starts, he’s very tough to trust, as a hand injury for a quarterback can be a game-changer. If he doesn’t start, a not-fully-healthy Geno Smith or an unproven Bryce Petty aren’t worthy of a start in daily fantasy. The Jaguars have a weak pass defense (28th in DVOA, eighth-most points allowed to opposing QBs), so Fitzpatrick is theoretically a tournament option, but I am worried that he won’t play four quarters thanks to his hurting hand.

Running Game: Doug Martin is the only back to rush for 100 yards against the Jaguars, with no other back gaining more than 78 yards on the ground in a game. This doesn’t provide great odds for a Chris Ivory (FD $7,500, DK $5,900) breakout game, but we know the potential is there for a big game after Martin’s performance. The Jags rank fourth in DVOA against the run, and 13th in numberFire’s rankings. Yet they’ve allowed the sixth-most points to the position. That’s partially due to a healthy amount of receptions allowed to backs, but also because they have allowed nine total touchdowns to the position in seven games. Ivory is the best bet to score on the New York offense, and should be in some of your lineups, but he’s far from a must-play with better options available in other games.

Pass Catchers: Brandon Marshall (FD $8,100, DK $7,600) and Eric Decker (FD $6,300, DK $5,300) are both dealing with injuries, but should suit up this weekend and get solid matchups against the Jaguars. The duo have combined for 123 targets, no other New York player has more than 19 on the season. They have nine of the team’s 13 receiving touchdowns, and well over 50% of their yards in the passing game. Marshall is a target magnet, and has a huge lead in that department, ahead of even Decker by more than 30 looks in the passing game. He’s a cash game option no matter who is under center. Decker is a bit riskier thanks to a smaller role, but he’s a touchdown machine, and is always a tournament play.

The Takeaway: Chris Ivory is likely to score a touchdown, and Marshall and Decker will split a healthy amount of targets in a good matchup. But this game should be low scoring and a bit ugly, and the quarterback situation for New York is a bit of a mess. I would save exposure to this offense for cheap tournaments, if you roster any of them at all. The defense is an interesting play against a Jacksonville team projected to score only 19 points, but their turnover rate and sack rate aren’t high enough to make the Jets a top target among D/STs.

Oakland Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers

Oakland Raiders						Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday – 1 p.m.						Heinz Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		4.5	48	21.75				-4.5	48	26.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	25.4	8	15	25		Offense	21.0	22	16	4
Opp. Defense	18.4	5	26	8		Opp. Defense	24.7	18	31	2
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Pittsburgh Steelers	13	3	17	29		Oakland Raiders	27	17	15	32
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Crabtree	68	40	3	483		Archer
Cooper	59	38	0	569		Brown	77	52	3	724
Roberts	19	9	2	107		Bryant	25	13	3	252
Smith	7	7	0	35		Miller	37	27	1	273

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Martavis Bryant, Markus Wheaton (PIT, Probable)

OAK Matchup Rating: 4.5
PIT Matchup Rating: 5.5

Oakland Raiders

Quarterback: Derek Carr (FD $7,000, DK $5,500) has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL this season, bouncing back from an injury-shortened Week 1 to throw 15 touchdown passes in his last seven games, with over 280 yards in five of the seven outings. He’s thrown only three interceptions this season, and is averaging over two more yards per attempt than last year. He’ll face a Pittsburgh defense that is better than you’d expect against the pass, but still not a formidable foe by any means. He should safely reach a floor of 250 yards and a couple of scores, but his upside isn’t there for taking down any big tournaments against a defense ranked just outside the top-ten against the pass according to Football Outsiders and numberFire. Outside of Tom Brady and the Patriots passing for four touchdowns on the opening evening of the season, the Steelers have kept quarterbacks to only eight touchdowns in their last six games, with seven interceptions over that span.

Running Game: There will be points scored in this game, but if everything goes as expected, those points won’t be scored on the ground. The Steelers are one of the toughest run defenses in the league, holding the top spot in numberFire’s rankings, and allowing the third-fewest fantasy points to the position this year. Only one back has found the end zone against them, and only two have gone over 70 yards rushing in a game. Latavius Murray (FD $7,000, DK $6,000) has big-play potential and could break out with a huge run or two and hit value, but his overall odds for success are fairly low against such a tough defense. He’s a very speculative tournament option at best.

Pass Catchers: Michael Crabtree (FD $5,800, DK $4,900) holds the volume advantage over Amari Cooper (FD $7,300, DK $6,700) in virtually every area, with more targets, more red zone looks, and a better dollar per opportunity ratio than his flashy, rookie counterpart. But both have big roles in this offense with a good quarterback under center, and should both see a mix of coverage matchups in this contest. According to Mike Clay at Pro Football Focus, the Steelers and Raiders move their defensive backs and receivers around, meaning a tough matchup with Ross Cockrell will be on the cards for both Cooper and Crabtree at some point this Sunday. That’s not enough to scare me away from either player, especially when they’ll get a chance to feast on the weak corners that play opposite of Cockrell on a regular basis. Both top wideouts are cash-game viable, and no other receiver on the team has a secure role we can bank on for daily fantasy purposes.

The Takeaway: Derek Carr, Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree are all appealing options in any format this weekend, as the Raiders will likely have to look to the air instead of trying to run against a tough Pittsburgh run defense.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Quarterback: Ben Roethlisberger (FD $8,300, DK $6,600) is back in action for the Steelers, and should go right back into your daily fantasy lineups. And while his return to the field could have ended a bit better for those who trusted him last week, it should serve to steer people away from a top passer in a high-scoring game with a good matchup. Big Ben is an extremely productive quarterback facing a defense that has allowed two or more passing touchdowns to every quarterback they’ve faced this season outside of Peyton Manning. Like the Steelers, the Raiders have a good run defense and a mediocre pass defense, so throwing is the way to win against them. The Steelers have no issues airing the ball out, especially with Le’Veon Bell on the shelf. Look for Ben and company to throw 40-50 times, which is more than enough to pick up 300 yards, a couple of scores, and a nice fantasy point total.

Running Game: Lots of daily fantasy players will flock to DeAngelo Williams (FD $6,500, DK $5,500) with Le’Veon Bell out, and for good reason. Williams ran for 127 yards against the Patriots, and then scored three touchdowns against the 49ers as he filled in for Bell in Weeks 1 and 2. He then averaged nearly eight yards per carry and caught four passes in relief of Bell last week. But the Raiders have kept running backs at bay this season, with a majority of their fantasy points allowed to the position coming from Danny Woodhead in garbage time as a receiver out of the backfield. Outside of that San Diego game, the Raiders have allowed only three touchdowns to opposing backs, and given up more than 70 rushing yards only once this season to a single opposing back. Williams has too high a price to be plug-and-play, and in this matchup, I’ll probably just pass on him altogether in favor of cheaper players in better spots, or more expensive players with more talent and more favorable matchups.

Pass Catchers: From a WR vs. CB perspective, Markus Wheaton (FD $4,800, DK $3,000) has the best matchup of the weekend for the Steelers wideouts. He’s also their worst receiver that receives regular playing time, but in tournaments, you could do worse. I am more interested in Antonio Brown (FD $8,700, DK $8,100) and Martavis Bryant (FD $6,900, DK $5,500), who both have solid volume with Roethlisberger under center. Bryant has seen his target total increase compared to last season, which was always my major complaint about the big-play wideout. He is a very strong tournament option this weekend. He shouldn’t be heavily owned, either, as he’s now a couple of weeks removed from his multi-touchdown performance. Brown is as steady as it gets at the WR position, and he should be back to ten or more targets per game from a competent quarterback, which he missed during Ben’s absence. Lock him into any sort of lineup, especially on PPR sites. Heath Miller (FD $5,800, DK $2,700) is a must-play on DraftKings, as his role is much more secure with Roethlisberger throwing the ball, and without the elite Le’Veon Bell catching passes out of the backfield. Someone needs to take those short receptions to keep the chains moving, and in a matchup with a team that struggles to defend tight ends, Miller is going to move up the food chain in this passing offense.

The Takeaway: The Steelers are always an easy team to break down for daily fantasy purposes, especially with one of their “big three” on the shelf. Big Ben, Bryant, Brown and Miller are all top plays this weekend.

New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

New York Giants						Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday – 4:05 p.m.						Raymond James Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-2.5	49	25.75				2.5	49	23.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	26.9	5	10	21		Offense	23.3	16	25	8
Opp. Defense	28.4	28	15	16		Opp. Defense	26.0	24	32	19
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	30	16	22	26		New York Giants	29	26	24	31
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Beckham	75	50	7	657		Evans	54	24	1	386
Randle	46	31	2	384		Jackson	40	21	2	319
Harris	28	18	3	232		Dye	5	2	0	11
Donnell	41	29	2	223		Seferian-Jenkins	10	7	2	139

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Victor Cruz, Larry Donnell (NYG, Out), Rueben Randle (NYG, Questionable), Vincent Jackson (TB, Out), Austin Seferian-Jenkins (TB, Questionable)

NYG Matchup Rating: 6.5
TB Matchup Rating: 5.5

New York Giants

Quarterback: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have allowed ten quarterback touchdowns over their last three games, and have let each of those passers go over 300 yards as well. This sets up very well for Eli Manning (FD $7,800, DK $6,900) on the heels of his six-touchdown performance last week. He’ll be popular, but he’s in a great matchup and deserves the attention. His inconsistency (three games with zero or one touchdown and under 200 yards passing) leaves him as a tournament option only for me, but if you don’t mind a bit of extra variance in your cash games, he’s fine there as well.

Running Game: The Giants are committed to using four running backs in different roles and keeping the fantasy potential of all four to a minimum. The Bucs have a top-ten run defense according to Football Outsiders and numberFire, and have been tough to score fantasy points against for opposing backs. Shane Vereen (FD $5,700, DK $4,400) is almost worthy of a roster spot on PPR sites, but none of the other backs should be on your radar.

Pass Catchers: There is no player on the Tampa Bay defense capable of keeping up with Odell Beckham (FD $9,000, DK $8,800), and after scoring three times against the Saints last week, he appears to be healthy heading into Week 9. He and Julio are options 1a and 1b this weekend, and I give a slight edge to Beckham as the Bucs should keep this game more competitive than the Niners will against the Falcons. According to Football Outsiders, receivers of all types can succeed against the Bucs, so Rueben Randle (FD $5,500, DK $4,100) and Dwayne Harris (FD $5,300, DK $3,800) can both be considered, as well. Will Tye (DK $2,500) is a punt play at tight end against a team that has allowed the seventh-most points to the position. Tye should see a handful of targets filling in for Larry Donnell.

The Takeaway: Eli Manning and any of his receivers are in play in tournaments, while Beckham is specifically viable in all formats. Shane Vereen is a flier for a GPP or two, but otherwise, avoid the running game and stick to the air.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Quarterback: It hasn’t always looked pretty, but Jameis Winston (FD $6,700, DK $5,200) has consistently produced good fantasy totals despite a limited volume and a lackluster supporting cast. He’s not terribly efficient, but he’s scored a touchdown every week, and picks up a few yards with his legs now and then as well. For such a cheap price, he’s always a decent cash game punt, especially against a defense that has allowed the fourth-most points to opposing quarterbacks this year. The Giants rank 26th in DVOA against the pass, and allowed an NFL-record seven touchdown passes last week. Winston is a smart choice in any format this week, but his upside is capped by his volume and his lack of talent on offense.

Running Game: In their last three games, the Giants defense has allowed three backs to go over 100 total yards, and has allowed three touchdowns in that span, as well. Doug Martin (FD $7,100, DK $5,700) is next in line to try to keep that streak going, as he has 20 or more touches in four straight games and has been running fairly well for the Bucs this season. Martin is important to the Tampa Bay offense, as he keeps the ball out of Winston’s hands and prevents the frustrating turnovers we saw early in the season from the rookie quarterback. And while the Giants aren’t a terrible run defense (Football Outsiders ranks them 11th), they’re not good enough to shy away from Martin’s volume and potential in this one. The Dougernaut has 60% of the team’s red zone carries this year, and should see a couple more this week against a weak New York defense.

Pass Catchers: Austin Seferian-Jenkins (FD $5,200, DK $2,800) would be a very strong play this weekend if he were expected to play, but he’s still slowly working his way back from an injury, and he’s not likely to suit up. Vincent Jackson (FD $6,000, DK $4,700) is in the same boat, as he’s still dealing with an injury and is doubtful to play. That leaves Mike Evans (FD $7,500, DK $6,800) as the team’s top receiver by a wide margin, and he’ll likely see some coverage from the Giants’ top corner Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. Evans has been very inconsistent this season, but has huge upside thanks to his big play ability and red zone skills. He’s a tournament option. No one else in this passing game is worthy of a spot on your roster.

The Takeaway: Winston and Martin are both viable for cash games, but neither are top options at their position. Evans is an interesting tournament play, and if healthy, Seferian-Jenkins would be a top tight end for any format.

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