NFL Grind Down: Week 9 - Page Three
Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers
| Atlanta Falcons | San Francisco 49ers | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 4:05 p.m. | Candlestick Park | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -7 | 44 | 25.5 | 7 | 44 | 18.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 26.6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | Offense | 13.6 | 32 | 27 | 15 | |
| Opp. Defense | 25.9 | 23 | 28 | 23 | Opp. Defense | 21.6 | 13 | 17 | 3 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| San Francisco 49ers | 21 | 31 | 30 | 18 | Atlanta Falcons | 5 | 29 | 3 | 28 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Jones | 102 | 70 | 6 | 892 | Boldin | 54 | 31 | 2 | 372 | |
| White | 28 | 16 | 1 | 210 | Smith | 31 | 16 | 2 | 342 | |
| Hankerson | 39 | 22 | 2 | 291 | Patton | 23 | 14 | 1 | 164 | |
| Tamme | 43 | 32 | 1 | 369 | Celek | 23 | 15 | 1 | 139 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Leonard Hankerson (ATL, Out), Garrett Celek (SF, Questionable), Mike Davis, Carlos Hyde, Anquan Boldin (SF, Doubtful)
ATL Matchup Rating: 8.0
SF Matchup Rating: 2.5
Atlanta Falcons
Quarterback: The 49ers are a mess in every facet of the game, as they rank in the bottom three in overall defense and pass defense according to both numberFire and Football Outsiders. Teams don’t have to pass often against San Francisco, but when they do, they’re picking up 8.5 yards per attempt, the second-worst mark in the league. Overall fantasy point numbers don’t tell the full story, but also tell a cautionary tale for those seeking a passer against the Niners. Matt Ryan (FD $8,000, DK $7,100) will have every opportunity to play well, but may not be needed in a game that could get ugly in a hurry. Eli Manning and Joe Flacco both threw a ton of passes against the Niners, but no other quarterback has needed to toss the ball over 32 times against them. Ryan could pick up 250 yards and a couple of scores in 30 attempts, but there’s not a ton of upside, especially on a team with a very talented running back duo to rely upon. Ryan is a lackluster daily fantasy option this weekend.
Running Game: Devonta Freeman (FD $8,900, DK $8,000) is no longer cheap, and no longer a must play for daily fantasy purposes, but he’ll face a terrible run defense that has allowed the more points per game to running backs than all but three teams in the NFL this season. Todd Gurley and Marshawn Lynch dropped back-to-back 100-yard games on the Niners, while Justin Forsett and Shane Vereen had 100 total yards from scrimmage in the two games prior. San Francisco has allowed nine touchdowns to opposing backs this year, and will be on the wrong side of the script in this one. Freeman has had 20 or more touches for a month straight, and that should continue in an easy win for the Falcons. He’s viable in all formats, but there are much better values at running back this week.
Pass Catchers: No other receiver or tight end on the Falcons has even half as many targets as Julio Jones (FD $9,200, DK $9,300), as the star wideout has 102, Devonta Freeman has 52, and Jacob Tamme (FD $5,200, DK $3,000) is next in line with 42. Leonard Hankerson and Roddy White have both dealt with injuries this year, and with Hankerson looking unlikely to play this week, this just further cements Jones’ status as a top receiver, even with limited upside for the overall passing game of Atlanta. 10-15 targets against a team that has allowed the fourth-most points to opposing receiver this season is a great spot, even for a player as expensive as Julio. With Hankerson likely out, Tamme is also an attractive option, as the Niners rank 26th in DVOA defense against tight ends.
The Takeaway: The Falcons should coast to an easy win here, and their defense might be the top play of this matchup. Blaine Gabbert is bad, and the Niners have very little healthy talent left on offense. On offense, Julio Jones, Devonta Freeman and Jacob Tamme are all fine tournament plays, with Jones and Freeman viable in cash as well.
San Francisco 49ers
Quarterback: Blaine Gabbert (FD $5,400, DK $5,000) is not the answer the 49ers are looking for at quarterback. The former Jacksonville signal caller has more interceptions than touchdowns in his career, and has barely completed 50% of his passes overall. He has no offensive talent around him, and can be totally ignored this week for daily fantasy purposes.
Running Game: Carlos Hyde (FD $6,000, DK $4,200) is the most talented player left in the San Francisco offense, but he’s hurt. If he plays, he probably won’t see a full workload, and isn’t worthy of consideration. And despite the Falcons being a fantasy friendly defense for running backs, the 49ers just don’t have a healthy, appealing option at the position.
Pass Catchers: With Anquan Boldin (FD $5,700, DK $4,200) unlikely to play and Vernon Davis traded away, Torrey Smith (FD $5,500, DK $3,900) is the best pass catcher in the starting lineup. That’s not an endorsement to use him for daily fantasy purposes. The fact that Jerome Simpson (FD $4,700, DK $3,000) received 10 targets after not playing all season, and Smith received only five, should tell you what you need to know about his prospects in this offense.
The Takeaway: The 49ers are a mess, and not even the prospect of garbage time against an average defense is enough to justify spending salary on any of these players.
Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts
| Denver Broncos | Indianapolis Colts | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 4:25 p.m. | Lucas Oil Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5 | 45 | 25 | 5 | 45 | 20 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 24.0 | 13 | 18 | 30 | Offense | 21.6 | 20 | 11 | 19 | |
| Opp. Defense | 25.4 | 21 | 27 | 28 | Opp. Defense | 16.0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Indianapolis Colts | 18 | 24 | 27 | 22 | Denver Broncos | 1 | 14 | 2 | 8 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Thomas | 86 | 56 | 1 | 695 | Hilton | 81 | 38 | 3 | 621 | |
| Sanders | 70 | 40 | 3 | 549 | Johnson | 45 | 24 | 3 | 288 | |
| Latimer | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Moncrief | 62 | 36 | 5 | 399 | |
| Daniels | 32 | 17 | 2 | 129 | Fleener | 44 | 29 | 2 | 258 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Jordan Norwood (DEN, Out), Ronnie Hillman (DEN, Questionable), Emmanuel Sanders (DEN, Probable), T.Y. Hilton (IND, Quesitonable), Andrew Luck (IND, Probable)
DEN Matchup Rating: 6.5
IND Matchup Rating: 2.5
Denver Broncos
Quarterback: The Colts have allowed multiple touchdowns from opposing quarterbacks in five of eight games this season, but never more than the three Tom Brady scored in Week 6. Overall, this has been a below average pass defense, ranking 18th according to DVOA, 27th according to numberFire, but 20th in fantasy points allowed. Peyton Manning (FD $7,700, DK $6,300) is a shell of his former self, but he’s eventually going to have a huge game, and playing against his former team is as good of a spot as any to predict a bounce back for Manning. He’s not a cash game play, which is such an odd thing to say about Manning, but he is in play for tournaments. He is unlikely to be higher than 5% owned, but he has a higher chance than that of scoring three touchdowns and helping you win a ton of money in a GPP.
Running Game: Ronnie Hillman (FD $6,400, DK $4,600) is the better running back in the Denver backfield, and will start this week despite a nagging injury. He’ll face a Colts defense that has allowed the seventh-most points to opposing backs, thanks in large part to the nine touchdowns they’ve allowed on the ground to opposing backs this season. C.J. Anderson (FD $6,000, DK $4,100) will keep the attention of a lot of daily fantasy players, but he’s the backup at this point, and will only see a healthy workload if Hillman suffers an injury setback. He’s averaging one full yard per carry less than Hillman, and can only really point to his passing game involvement as an advantage over his teammate at this point. Hillman is a good tournament pivot from the more popular running backs in his price range, while Anderson is out of consideration.
Pass Catchers: Demaryius Thomas (FD $8,400, DK $7,500) and Emmanuel Sanders (FD $7,600, DK $7,300) are both in the top-15 in the NFL in targets so far this season. And while neither has been as productive with those targets as we would have expected based on previous years, those targets will continue to be valuable as we chase under-owned players with big roles and plenty of potential for a fantasy breakout. The Colts have allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts this season, and star corner Vontae Davis is just not playing at the same level we’ve seen in the past. He’s not a matchup to be concerned with for either receiver, and both can be used with Manning or without in tournaments this weekend. And since slot receivers have had so much success against the Colts this season, a tournament punt with Bennie Fowler (FD $4,900, DK $3,000) or Andre Caldwell (FD $4,500, DK $3,000) would be a very, very contrarian way to get exposure to this offense with Jordan Norwood on the shelf with an injury. Roles and volume are very limited for these two, but we’ve seen unheralded receivers emerge for the Broncos in the past, and since it’s such a good matchup against this defense, you have to imagine Peyton Manning has taken notice and will look that way this week.
The Takeaway: Manning, Hillman, Thomas and Sanders are all great tournament plays this weekend as the Broncos should earn a victory on the road against the Colts. The Denver defense is in play, as well, but it’s not exactly contrarian given their consistent performance this season.
Indianapolis Colts
Quarterback: This isn’t the article to debate whether or not Andrew Luck (FD $8,700, DK $7,000) has been struggling due to injury or regression. This is an article to point out that Andrew Luck has been incredibly inconsistent lately, has had a real problem with turnovers, and now faces the best defense in the NFL. There’s no way to safely invest in Luck with confidence that he’ll return value against this Denver defensive unit. The Broncos have a huge lead in DVOA pass defense, and are the only team to keep opponents under 10 FanDuel points per game at the QB position. Luck isn’t worthy of your selection this weekend.
Running Game: The Broncos are also an elite run defense, although not quite as elite as they are against the pass. Frank Gore (FD $6,700, DK $4,800) isn’t the player I want to bet on breaking through against this defense, though, as only Jamaal Charles has rushed for 100 or more yards against Denver this year. Gore has a decent chance to score a touchdown, but one score isn’t enough to return value, so he’s not a viable option this weekend.
Pass Catchers: T.Y. Hilton (FD $7,700, DK $6,900) is unlikely to play against Denver, thinning an offense in need of playmakers against a very tough defense. The Broncos rank in the top five against all receiver positions in DVOA defense, so Donte Moncrief (FD $6,400, DK $5,400) and Andre Johnson (FD $5,600, DK $4,000) gain in volume but lose any value thanks to the matchup. Tight ends have found moderate success against the Broncos this season (they rank 19th in DVOA against the position and have allowed 50 yards or more to three tight ends, and two touchdowns to Gary Barnidge and the Browns), so Coby Fleener (FD $5,000, DK $2,800) is a dart throw tournament option if you want to go cheap at tight end.
The Takeaway: Coby Fleener is the only Colt you’ll find on my rosters this weekend, as Indy faces the unquestioned top defense in the NFL.
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys
| Philadelphia Eagles | Dallas Cowboys | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 8:30 p.m. | AT&T Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 44.5 | 23.5 | 2.5 | 44.5 | 21 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 22.9 | 17 | 21 | 16 | Offense | 19.0 | 29 | 28 | 10 | |
| Opp. Defense | 24.4 | 17 | 8 | 13 | Opp. Defense | 19.6 | 11 | 16 | 17 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Dallas Cowboys | 6 | 28 | 5 | 11 | Philadelphia Eagles | 15 | 6 | 25 | 4 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Matthews | 63 | 39 | 1 | 398 | Bryant | 13 | 7 | 0 | 60 | |
| Huff | 19 | 13 | 1 | 141 | Williams | 42 | 20 | 2 | 313 | |
| Cooper | 23 | 11 | 2 | 205 | Beasley | 30 | 22 | 0 | 214 | |
| Celek | 9 | 7 | 2 | 71 | Witten | 49 | 38 | 2 | 360 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Ryan Mathews, Nelson Agholor (PHI, Questionable)
PHI Matchup Rating: 5.5
DAL Matchup Rating: 3.0
Philadelphia Eagles
Quarterback: The Cowboys play at the slowest pace in the NFL, while the Eagles play at the fastest tempo. This will balance out somewhere in the middle, but does drag down one of the most appealing aspects of the Chip Kelly offense. Dallas has allowed only one passing touchdown over the last two weeks, and rank 27th on the year in fantasy points per game allowed to the position. Sam Bradford (FD $7,600, DK $5,900) has four interceptions and only one touchdown pass in his last two starts, and struggled against the Cowboys in their first meeting this season. There are better ways to spend your salary this weekend.
Running Game: Dallas ranks fifth in points per game allowed to the running back position, and 20th in DVOA against the run. This is a vulnerable run defense, but it did a great job of shutting down the Philly rushing game in Week 2. Further complicating matters is the way that DeMarco Murray (FD $7,500, DK $6,400) and Ryan Mathews (FD $5,600, DK $3,700) have split the production over the past few weeks. If Mathews is ruled out, I feel comfortable with Murray as a strong tournament play, but if both players suit up, it will be very tough to trust either one, even in a GPP. Darren Sproles (FD $5,500, DK $3,800) would be an interesting PPR play if Mathews is ruled out, as he’d see more work and is coming off of a ten-target game in Week 7. He’s a tournament flier if Mathews doesn’t go.
Pass Catchers: Jordan Matthews (FD $6,300, DK $6,400) is the top target in the Philadelphia passing game, but he’s been really poor this season, with inconsistent hands and a lack of any big plays or meaningful red zone work. His best performance to date came against the Philadelphia defense, but it was propped up by a garbage time touchdown. Matthews isn’t worth his current price. The other wideouts for Philadelphia have scattered roles and are impossible to sort out. Zach Ertz (FD $5,000, DK $3,200) has started to see more consistent targets, and has a cheap price in DraftKings, and would be under consideration against a team that’s been more susceptible to tight ends than the Cowboys. But since Dallas ranks 13th in DVOA against the position and 22nd in fantasy points allowed, Ertz is best left for a better matchup down the road.
The Takeaway: Keep an eye on the running back situation, as the situation at the position becomes clearer if Mathews is ruled out. Otherwise, I’m not going to invest in this offense with how poorly they’ve played and how spread the production has been. The defense is in an interesting spot against Matt Cassel and company, and is a tournament play this week.
Dallas Cowboys
Quarterback: Why would you roster Matt Cassel (FD $6,300, DK $5,000) when you could get Jameis Winston, Derek Carr, Marcus Mariota and Tyrod Taylor for similar prices? He’s been terrible as the Dallas starter, the Cowboys play at a very slow tempo, and the Eagles have a top-10 pass defense according to both numberFire and DVOA. Avoid this situation entirely.
Running Game: The Eagles also have a stout run defense, which ranks 27th in fantasy points per game allowed to opposing backs. Darren McFadden (FD $6,500, DK $4,300) will likely catch a few passes and get 20+ touches, and that may be enough to hit value on DraftKings. But running backs have scored only two touchdowns against Philly this season, and both of those scores were by Mike Tolbert in Week 7. The Cowboys could recreate what the Panthers did two weeks ago and run well against the Philly defense, but when considering how they performed against this same defense in Week 2, I’m not going to bank on it for daily fantasy purposes.
Pass Catchers: With Cassel under center, McFadden and Jason Witten (FD $5,600, DK $5,200) are the only players on this offense worthy of consideration. The Eagles have been very tough on tight ends this year, so Witten isn’t a noteworthy option. Dez Bryant (FD $7,900, DK $7,900) could use another week or two with Cassel to continue to lower his price, so he’ll be a great value when Tony Romo finally returns.
The Takeaway: The Cowboys are missing the two biggest pieces of their offense, and are struggling as a result. Darren McFadden is an option on PPR sites, but this team should be avoided otherwise.
Chicago Bears at San Diego Chargers
| Chicago Bears | San Diego Chargers | |||||||||
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| Monday – 8:30 p.m. | Qualcomm Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 49 | 22.5 | -4 | 49 | 26.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 20.0 | 27 | 26 | 20 | Offense | 23.9 | 14 | 1 | 27 | |
| Opp. Defense | 28.4 | 27 | 13 | 27 | Opp. Defense | 28.9 | 29 | 4 | 29 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| San Diego Chargers | 16 | 32 | 7 | 20 | Chicago Bears | 26 | 11 | 21 | 3 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Jeffery | 37 | 23 | 2 | 341 | Floyd | 40 | 21 | 3 | 409 | |
| Royal | 36 | 26 | 1 | 170 | Johnson | 37 | 24 | 2 | 283 | |
| Wilson | 33 | 18 | 1 | 302 | Jones | |||||
| Bennett | 58 | 37 | 2 | 324 | Gates | 32 | 22 | 2 | 243 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Matt Forte, Eddie Royal (CHI, Doubtful), Ladarius Green (SD, Doubtful)
CHI Matchup Rating: 5.5
SD Matchup Rating: 6.5
Chicago Bears
Quarterback: A lot of fantasy players are going to focus on the San Diego side of this game for passing game targets, and for good reason. But the Bears have a pretty good matchup of their own, and it might go unnoticed as gamers flock to the running back situation. Jay Cutler (FD $7,100, DK $5,200) is incredibly cheap and is facing a defense ranked outside the top-20 against the pass according to Football Outsiders and numberFire. This game has one of the higher totals of the weekend, and should be somewhat competitive, so the Bears will be throwing all the way through until the fourth quarter. Michael Vick and Teddy Bridgewater are the only quarterbacks to not score multiple touchdowns against this defense this season, and Cutler is more productive (if not more talented) than both of those players. He’s a great tournament option at QB.
Running Game: Jeremy Langford (FD $6,400, DK $4,000) will step in for the almost-certain-to-be-out Matt Forte, and becomes a top option for cash games at the running back spot. Langford picked up 12 carries against the Vikings in relief of Forte, and should see 15-20 against a San Diego defense that ranks last in DVOA run defense, and that has allowed the most points per game to the position this season. Backs have scored ten times in eight games against the Bolts, with nearly 1400 total yards from scrimmage. This is a dream matchup, and Langford has the trust of his coaches to carry the load on offense. Use him in any format on any site this weekend.
Pass Catchers: Alshon Jeffery (FD $7,900, DK $6,700) is an interesting case this week. He’s seen 11 or more targets in every game this season, but will face a very tough opponent this week in Jason Verrett. Verrett is one of the league’s best corners, and has been shadowing opposing star wideouts this year. But he’s not invincible, and Jay Cutler is still going to fire the ball toward his top wideout. I think Jeffery’s upside is capped, but his floor is still solid. He’s a viable tournament option. Martellus Bennett (FD $5,400, DK $4,900) is a safer, cheaper way to get exposure to the passing game, as he’ll face a defense ranked 30th at defending the tight end by Football Outsiders, and that could be without star safety Eric Weddle. And with Eddie Royal unlikely to play, Marquess Wilson (FD $4,800, DK $4,000) will get more playing time and benefit from not seeing the coverage of Verrett. Toss him in a tournament lineup or two.
The Takeaway: Langford is the daily fantasy darling this weekend, but Cutler, Jeffery, Bennett and Wilson are all worthy of a spot in your GPP rosters as well.
San Diego Chargers
Quarterback: The Bears have allowed the seventh-most points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season, and rank 24th against the pass according to numberFire and Football Outsiders. That’s good enough for Philip Rivers (FD $8,600, DK $6,900), who is on a record-setting pace this season in terms of passing yards. The Bears allowed Matthew Stafford to throw for 400 yards in Week 6, and have given up three or more touchdown passes three times this season. Rivers has a good matchup here and we know he has high volume, so despite a ton of great weapons at his disposal, he’s a solid option in all formats this week.
Running Game: The Chargers tried to get Melvin Gordon (FD $6,100, DK $4,000) involved last week, giving him 18 carries and five receptions. He turned those 23 touches into 61 yards, and failed to find the end zone. He’s just not up to speed when it comes to NFL offense yet, and his offensive line is doing him no favors. The Bears have a poor run defense according to the advanced statistics (31st DVOA, 30th numberFire), but they’ve done a decent job keeping opposing backs out of the end zone, giving up just four touchdowns to running backs this season. They rank second in defending backs in the passing game, removing a good amount of the value for Danny Woodhead (FD $6,000, DK $4,800) as well. Neither back stands out as a strong play, especially if the team is going to insist upon giving Gordon 20+ touches and limiting Woodhead to just a handful.
Pass Catchers: With Keenan Allen out and Ladarius Green likely to sit this one out as well, Steve Johnson (FD $5,400, DK $3,200), Malcom Floyd (FD $6,100, DK $3,900), Antonio Gates (FD $6,000, DK $4,700) and Dontrelle Inman (FD $5,000, DK $3,000) are your four pass catchers of note. The Bears have terrible corners at every spot on the depth chart, and don’t cover tight ends well, either. That has led to them allowing the eighth-most points to opposing wideouts this season, and ranking 25th in DVOA against tight ends. Johnson is a must-play, especially on PPR sites, as he should step into a huge role as a possession receiver in place of Keenan Allen. Floyd has big play potential, even as a veteran coming to the end of his career, and should see a bit of extra volume to compensate for the injuries. Inman played well when pressed into duty last season, but hasn’t put it all together in a single game yet. If he gets 7-10 targets moving forward, he’s a player to keep an eye on. And while the Bears have decent DvP against tight ends, they did allow Jimmy Graham to have a solid day through the air, and have no answer for Gates. He will see a ton of targets and should have a very good day in the prolific San Diego passing game.
The Takeaway: The Chargers have tons of value plays at receiver and tight end, and their quarterback is a fine daily fantasy option, as well. This is one of the more fantasy friendly games of the weekend, so enjoy the sweat on Monday night as the last of your players pick up points and decide the outcome of your contests!