NHL Grind Down: Thursday, October 22nd
The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Dallas Stars at Pittsburgh Penguins – 07:00 PM EDT
| Dallas Stars | Pittsburgh Penguins | ||||||||
 | Kari Lehtonen |  | Marc-Andre Fleury | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 41-31 | 43-27 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 3.13 | 3.13 | 19.00% | 80.70% | Team Stats | 2.65 | 2.49 | 19.30% | 84.80% |
The Dallas Stars offense has been churning on all cylinders en route to a 5-1-0 start to the season. The Stars’ success is directly tied to the performance of their top line, which no opposition has been able to shut down. Patrick Sharp, Tyler Seguin, and Jamie Benn form the best line in all of hockey. They possess the puck at an extremely elite level and all three players are capable of finishing scoring chances. Benn and Seguin have been all over the score-sheet to start the year, EACH notching 10 points in the Stars’ first 6 games. Additionally, the Dallas power-play has been clicking at 30% which puts quarterback John Klingberg firmly in play. While Pittsburgh has been defensively stout over their past two games (a 2-1 victory over Toronto, and a 3-2 victory over Florida), shutting down Dallas is a far more difficult task than they’ve recently faced. I expect the Stars to continue to score goals here and the production will likely come through Benn and Seguin. It is possible that Pittsburgh sells out to shut down the Stars’ top line, which may open the door for Jason Spezza to find some favorable match-ups at low ownership.
The Pittsburgh Penguins beat the Florida Panthers on Tuesday in large part due to a breakout performance by Sidney Crosby (finally) in which the NHL’s best player put up a goal and two assists. Though the Pittsburgh offense hasn’t garnered as much attention as Dallas’ has of late, the Penguins are on the upswing, having won three straight. Evgeni Malkin has points in four straight games and leads the team with five points overall. Dallas has held opponents under two and a half goals a game, but their defensive corps is not very strong. This game has all the makings of a shootout and you should expect Pittsburgh to pot several goals. Chris Kunitz has a relatively low price-tag across the industry and gives you exposure both to Crosby and Phil Kessel at even strength as well as Malkin and Kris Letang on the power-play.
Elite Plays
DAL: Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin
PIT: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel, Kris Letang
Secondary Plays
DAL: Patrick Sharp, Jason Spezza, John Klingberg
PIT: Chris Kunitz, Patric Hornqvist, Olli Maatta
Arizona Coyotes at New York Rangers – 07:00 PM EDT
| Arizona Coyotes | New York Rangers | ||||||||
 | Mike Smith |  | Henrik Lundqvist | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 24-50 | 53-22 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.01 | 3.26 | 20.00% | 76.70% | Team Stats | 3.02 | 2.28 | 16.80% | 84.30% |
The Arizona Coyotes continue their East Coast road trip tonight, facing the New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden. Though Arizona opened the season with three surprising victories, they proceeded to lose their next three games en route to a 3-2-1 record. This regression was due to come, but the Coyotes should nevertheless be encouraged by the success of their young players to start the year—-Max Domi and Anthony Duclair each have 7 points through the first 6 games. The Duke returns to Madison Square Garden tonight to face the team that traded him away last spring. Arizona appears to have shuffled their lines, finally putting center Martin Hanzal between Domi and Duclair at even strength (they played the power-play together this year and were linemates for Canada at the World Junior Championships). The Coyotes are in for a tough road game here against the defensively sound Rangers and elite goaltender Henrik Lundqvist. I expect Arizona to create some chances with their speed, but don’t expect the Coyotes to bury numerous goals in this game. The Rangers should win with relative ease.
The New York Rangers shut out the San Jose Sharks 4-0 on Monday behind the strong play of backup goaltender Antti Raanta, improving their record to 4-2-1 to start the season. The Rangers will almost certainly turn to franchise goalie Henrik Lundqvist tonight, who is in a great position to get the win against a struggling Coyotes team. Lundqvist always has shut out potential as one of the best goaltenders in the NHL and is an elite play tonight. The Rangers are the largest Vegas favorites on the slate at -240. Arizona is weak on the defensive end and the Coyotes will struggle a great deal to contain New York’s depth in this game. The Rangers top 9 forwards are among the strongest in the NHL, with all three lines capable of finding the twine on a regular basis. Rick Nash had numerous quality chances in Monday’s game against the Sharks and is still looking to break out on the scoresheet in a statement game. Derek Stepan, Nash, and Mats Zuccarello should have plenty of opportunities in this match up both at even strength and on the power-play alongside Keith Yandle. Look to the Derick Brassard and Chris Kreider combination if you are seeking lower ownership percentages.
Elite Plays
ARI: None.
NYR: Rick Nash, Derek Stepan, Keith Yandle, Henrik Lundqvist
Secondary Plays
ARI: Max Domi, Anthony Duclair, Oliver Ekman-Larsson
NYR: Mats Zuccarello, Chris Kreider, Derick Brassard, Ryan McDonagh, Dan Boyle
New Jersey Devils at Ottawa Senators – 07:30 PM EDT
| New Jersey Devils | Ottawa Senators | ||||||||
 | Cory Schneider |  | Craig Anderson | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 32-36 | 43-26 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.15 | 2.55 | 19.30% | 80.60% | Team Stats | 2.83 | 2.54 | 16.80% | 82.90% |
New Jersey beat the Arizona Coyotes on Tuesday 3-2 in overtime. Travis Zajac had a 3-point game and Michael Cammalleri had a goal and 8 shots on net. The top line of Cammalleri, Adam Henrique, and Lee Stempniak has demonstrated solid chemistry over the last two games and will be relied upon heavily going forward for this offense-starved club. Cammalleri paces the Devils with 5 points over 6 games and is undeniably New Jersey’s best fantasy option, but that isn’t saying much. New Jersey averages under two goals a game and is bound to continue to struggle to score all season long as they rebuild their roster. The matchup against the Senators is mediocre at best and New Jersey skaters are only in play as contrarian GPP options. Cory Schneider is an elite netminder who always has the capability of stealing games, regardless of matchup, so he is worth consideration in tournaments as well. Damon Severson and Eric Gelinas are cheap options on defense if you are seeking some salary saving options that give you power-play exposure.
The Ottawa Senators play their first game in 5 days tonight when they host the New Jersey Devils. Last time out, Ottawa fell to Nashville in the shootout bringing their record on the season to 3-2-1. The Senators offense runs through their top line of Mike Hoffman, Kyle Turris, and Mark Stone and this trio has continued to demonstrate the success they found together in the second half of last year. Hoffman, Turris, and Stone are each averaging over a point per game to begin the season and have combined for 23 points over the team’s first 6 games. The other bright spot on this club is defenseman Erik Karlsson who is tied for the team lead in points. Simply put, Karlsson is the best offensive defenseman in the NHL. Ottawa gets a plus home matchup tonight against a New Jersey team that plays reasonably good defensive hockey, but struggles to score. Andrew “The Hamburgler” Hammond is slated to return from injury and make his first start in net tonight. Against this New Jersey squad Hammond is an elite option, but this pick does come with some risk as New Jersey goes through spells where they don’t frequently put the puck on net (New Jersey only managed 5 shots on net in the 1st Period against Arizona on Tuesday). Ottawa is a -185 Vegas favorite in this game. It is also worth noting that the Senators second line featuring Bobby Ryan and Mika Zibanejad is always under-owned in tournaments and could be worth a flier.
Elite Plays
NJD: Michael Cammalleri
OTT: Mike Hoffman, Kyle Turris, Mark Stone, Erik Karlsson, Andrew Hammond
Secondary Plays
NJD: Adam Henrique, Cory Schneider
OTT: Bobby Ryan, Mika Zibanejad
Columbus Blue Jackets at Minnesota Wild – 08:00 PM EDT
| Columbus Blue Jackets | Minnesota Wild | ||||||||
 | Sergei Bobrovsky |  | Devan Dubnyk | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 42-35 | 46-28 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.77 | 3.02 | 21.70% | 80.20% | Team Stats | 2.77 | 2.41 | 15.80% | 86.30% |
The Columbus Blue Jackets have fired their coach after starting the season winless in seven opportunities. New coach John Tortorella is a familiar face around the league, having recently coached both the Canucks and the Rangers. Tortorella is known for his defensive acumen, which the Blue Jackets will help reduce their abysmal 4.86 goals against per game. This coaching change left some in the analytics community a bit perplexed, as Columbus has been middle-of-the-road in most categories despite their winless record. It will take time for a young Blue Jackets team to adjust to Tortorella’s system (potentially weeks or months), but the Jackets may come out strong in an effort to impress their new coach. If you are looking toward this team as a contrarian play, you don’t need to look beyond the top trio of Nick Foligno, Ryan Johansen, and Brandon Saad. All these forwards can light the lamp and should come with low ownership. While many in the DFS community will look to capitalize on the disarray in Columbus by targeting against them, the Wild will likely come at high ownership and fading in tournaments may be the proper strategic move.
The Minnesota Wild lost to the Anaheim ducks on Sunday and will look to rebound tonight against the struggling Blue Jackets. Star player Zach Parise is on a tear to start the year with 5 goals in 5 games and an additional 2 assists. Parise’s linemates both at even strength and on the top power-play, Jason Pominville and Mikael Granlund, each have 4 points to begin the year. Ryan Suter has 5 assists through 5 games as well and the Wild power-play has looked impressive en route to a 25% success rate. Though the matchup against Columbus looks good on paper, Wild coach Mike Yeo addressed the Blue Jackets’coaching change and said “We’re in for a good challenge… It’s quite obvious what their motivation level is going to be and what we can expect from them.” The narrative is strong here and personally I am hesitant to go all-in on the Wild as I fear this may be a trap game. That being said, the Wild are large Vegas favorites at -210.
Elite Plays
CBJ: None.
MIN: Zach Parise, Jason Pominville, Ryan Suter
Secondary Plays
CBJ: Ryan Johansen, Nick Foligno, Brandon Saad
MIN: Mikael Granlund, Nino Niederreiter, Mikko Koivu, Thomas Vanek
Anaheim Ducks at Nashville Predators – 08:00 PM EDT
| Anaheim Ducks | Nashville Predators | ||||||||
 | Frederik Andersen |  | Pekka Rinne | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 51-24 | 47-25 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.78 | 2.70 | 15.70% | 81.00% | Team Stats | 2.76 | 2.46 | 16.20% | 80.80% |
Anaheim heads into Nashville tonight to face the Predators in what should be a highly competitive game between two playoff-projected teams. Anaheim struggled out of the gates this year, but will look to build on Sunday’s 4-1 victory over the Wild in which star players Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf each got their first points of the season. Nashville presents a tough matchup with several lines of depth, a rock solid defense corps, and an elite goalie in Pekka Rinne. The predators are allowing 2.17 goals per game and I even think that number will decrease over the course of the season. While Perry and Getzlaf always possess a high ceiling, this isn’t the best spot to target them in as they will see a healthy dose of Shea Weber all night. Their prices across the industry are a bit too high for my liking given the matchup, but I certainly wouldn’t blame you for having some exposure to this duo in tournaments. The Ducks have yet to score a power-play goal this year, but Sami Vatanen is an emerging highly skilled defenseman and it’s only a matter of time before he buries one. Goaltender Frederik Andersen is a surprising 3-0-0 against the Predators over his career, but I wouldn’t put too much stock in this statistic.
The Nashville Predators are 5-1-0 to start the season and have seen their top line of James Neal, Mike Fisher, and Filip Forsberg come to life over the last few games. Neal has five goals in the past three games (7 points on the season) and Forsberg has six points in the past five games. Both Roman Josi and Shea Weber have been active on the offensive side of the puck, combining for 9 points thus far to start the year. Though Anaheim has struggled to win hockey games, things have been relatively sound on the defensive side of the puck. The Ducks are allowing 2.20 goals against to start the year and have a 91.7 percent success rate on the penalty kill. The Predators have the matchup advantage tonight as the home team and will do their best to put Neal and Forsberg in positions where they are likely to hit the scoresheet. Both Nashville forwards are reasonably priced across the industry.
Elite Plays
ANA: Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf
NSH: James Neal, Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi
Secondary Plays
ANA: Sami Vatanen
NSH: Shea Weber, Mike Fisher, Craig Smith