NHL Grind Down: Wednesday, December 30th
The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
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Toronto Maple Leafs at Pittsburgh Penguins – 07:00 PM EST
| Toronto Maple Leafs | Pittsburgh Penguins | ||||||||
 | Jonathan Bernier |  | Marc-Andre Fleury | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 13-14-7 | 17-15-3 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.53 | 2.65 | 20.80% | 79.60% | Team Stats | 2.23 | 2.40 | 16.20% | 83.30% |
The Maple Leafs were blown out of the water last night and will face the very difficult task of heading to Pittsburgh to battle the Penguins on the second-half of back-to-back games. Despite a somewhat disappointing season thus far by the Penguins, they’ve been very solid defensively (2.40 goals against per game) and the Maple Leafs have managed to score just one time in their two prior meetings this season. While I’m certainly not high on the Maple Leafs from a fantasy perspective tonight, they have shown a nice balanced offensive attack over the past several weeks. Tyler Bozak and James van Riemsdyk team up on the top forward line (along with P.A. Parenteau) where both players have amassed ten points in 11 games this month. Alternatively, Leo Komarov and Nazem Kadri have put up very similiar offensive numbers on the second forward line. On the blue-line, both Dion Phaneuf and Jake Gardiner have secured nearly all of the playing time with the man advantage, but former first-round pick Morgan Rielly has also proved to be a very effective puck-moving defenseman. With all that said, I’ll be reserving my exposure to Toronto for GPPs.
The Penguins couldn’t solve Connor Hellebuyck on Sunday night and this team is now just 4-7-3 over their last 14 games. However, they have manhandeled this Toronto team in both prior meetings this season and there’s simply way too much offensive firepower in this lineup to ignore on five game slate. We saw a New York Islanders team going through similiar struggles as Pittsburgh score six goals in the first two periods last night, so I’ll be doing my best to overlook Pittsburgh’s recent poor play. Sidney Crosby has started to show some signs of life offensively (five points in the last four games) and is slated to center Chris Kunitz and rookie Conor Sheary on the Penguins top line. Fellow super-star Evgeni Malkin looks set to join Patric Hornqvist and David Perron on a very dangerous “second” forward line and both groupings look like very nice targets tonight. Lost in the forward shuffle is Phil Kessel, but he’ll still see a healthy dose of playing time on the wing of the #1 power-play and is a fine option on sites where his price-tag as fallen a bit. Kris Letang status for tonight’s matchup is still up in the air. If he plays, he’s a top tier option on the blue-line as the point-man on the #1 power-play unit. If he does not, Olli Maatta would see a substantially increased role and become one of the best value plays on the board.
Elite Options
TOR: Tyler Bozak, James van Riemsdyk
PIT: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Patric Hornqvist, Kris Letang (if healthy)
Secondary Options
TOR: P.A. Parenteau, Nazem Kadri, Leo Komarov, Dion Phaneuf
PIT: Chris Kunitz, Conor Sheary, David Perron, Phil Kessel, Olli Maatta
Buffalo Sabres at Washington Capitals – 07:00 PM EST
| Buffalo Sabres | Washington Capitals | ||||||||
 | Robin Lehner |  | Braden Holtby | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 15-17-4 | 27-6-2 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.33 | 2.53 | 19.80% | 78.40% | Team Stats | 3.09 | 2.06 | 25.00% | 85.10% |
The Sabres were shutout by these Capitals on Monday night and will now head to Washington for the back half of a home-and-home series. With the Capitals having won eight straight games to push their record to an impressive 27-6-2 and owning the best defense in the NHL (2.06 GA/G this season), avoiding the Sabres looks to be a pretty easy decision tonight. While no one here is on my cash game radar, it’s impossible to ignore the recent success of both Ryan O’Reilly and Rasmus Ristolainen. O’Reilly has posted seven goals and eight assists over his last 13 games and Ristolainen has rounded into form nicely with 7 goals and 17 assists in 36 games from the blue-line. Both should be very scarcily owned making them intriguing GPP fliers at the very least.
Alexander Ovechkin scored his 18th goal of the season for the game-winner in Monday’s game against the Buffalo Sabres, and with the scene shifting to our Nation’s Capital, Washington should have no trouble picking up two more points this evening. Ovechkin is the premier play of the evening and his linemates T.J. Oshie and Nicklas Backstrom are terrific options as well. After missing the first few weeks of the season, Backstrom looks to finally be back to full health and somewhat quietly racked up 32 points in 32 games this season. Marcus Johansson joins that trio in the #1 power-play unit, which gives him a big fantasy boost as he takes on a Buffalo team owning just a 78.4% penalty kill this season. Also benefiting from Buffalo’s subpar penatly kill is power-play point-man John Carlson. Carlson saw his iron-man streak come to an end on Monday night as he was held out with a lower-body injury, but all reports thus far have him ready to return to action tonight. Obviously monitor his status, but he’s scored two goals and dished out 12 assists over his last 14 games. If he’s unable to suit up for any reason, be ready to pounce on Matt Niskanen as one of the best value plays on the blue-line this evening.
Elite Options
BUF: None
WAS: Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, T.J. Oshie, John Carlson (if healthy)
Secondary Options
BUF: Ryan O’Reilly, Jack Eichel, Evander Kane, Rasmus Ristolainen
WAS: Marcus Johansson, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Justin Williams, Matt Niskanen
New Jersey Devils at Ottawa Senators – 07:30 PM EST
| New Jersey Devils | Ottawa Senators | ||||||||
 | Cory Schneider |  | Craig Anderson | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 17-14-5 | 18-12-6 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.28 | 2.39 | 20.00% | 82.00% | Team Stats | 2.92 | 2.81 | 19.80% | 78.30% |
In a battle of two teams with very different offensive styles, New Jersey will head to Ottawa to battle the Senators tonight. New Jersey salvaged a home-and-home series against the Carolina Hurricanes with a 3-2 home victory last night. However, they’ve dropped four of their last six games and have averaged just 2.30 goals per game this season. The Devils are the slowest paced team in the NHL by a landslide (88.3 CP60) but they do at least see a small fantasy boost tonight as no team in the NHL has allowed more shots on goal against per game that Ottawa’s 34.1 SA/G. John Hynes shook up his forward lines prior to last night’s game with their most dangerous weapon, Michael Cammalleri, now being joined by Travis Zajac and Kyle Palmieri on the top line. While this is a fairly big blow to the value of both Adam Henrique and Lee Stepmniak, both forwards will at least still see plenty of run on the #2 power-play unit. The Devils did defeat the Senators 5-4 in a shootout in their only previous meeting this season, so don’t overlook them completely.
The Senators coughed up seven goals to the Bruins last night and now own just a 6-8-1 record over their last 15 games. They badly need two points tonight in a home game against the New Jersey Devils before embarking on a very tough two game road trip that begins on Sunday in Chicago. Ottawa will be looking to push the pace tonight as much as possible against a slower Devils team, and that’s terrific news for the NHL’s top scoring defenseman Erik Karlsson. Karlsson leads this team with 41 points in 37 games and has now picked up points in seven straight games. Up front, both of Ottawa’s top two scoring lines have proven to be quite dangerous. Bobby Ryan and Mike Hoffman (along with Mika Zibanejad) lead the charge on the top line and are the top options, but Kyle Turris has developed a nice rapport with Mark Stone on the second line and they should not be ignored.
Elite Options
NJD: Michael Cammalleri, Kyle Palmieri
OTT: Bobby Ryan, Mike Hoffman, Erik Karlsson
Secondary Options
NJD: Travis Zajac, Adam Henrique, Lee Stempniak
OTT: Kyle Turris, Mika Zibanejad, Mark Stone
New York Rangers at Tampa Bay Lightning – 08:00 PM EST
| New York Rangers | Tampa Bay Lightning | ||||||||
 | Henrik Lundqvist |  | Ben Bishop | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 20-13-4 | 18-15-4 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.86 | 2.59 | 21.40% | 81.00% | Team Stats | 2.54 | 2.30 | 18.50% | 78.20% |
The Rangers appear to be doing their best Montreal Canadiens impression right now as they’ve been in a nasty tailspin for nearly a month now after a very impressive start to the 2015-16 campaign. After starting the season with a 16-3-2 record, they’ve posted a 4-10-2 record in the 16 games since and now find themselves already 12 points behind the division leading Washington Capitals. New York will head to Tampa Bay tonight hoping to break out of their funk as well as seek retribution against the team that eliminated them from the Eastern Conference Finals in seven games last season. Alain Vigneault continues to change up his forward lines hoping something will click, and while it doesn’t seem to have worked just yet, the Rangers do look to have two very formidible offensive groupings. Derick Brassard and Mats Zuccarello are slated to be joined by J.T. Miller on one line, with only line-mates Rick Nash and Derek Stepan playing alongside Jesper Fast on another. While the Lightning have been very solid in their defensive end this season (2.30 GA/G), they have struggled a bit on the penalty kill. This is fact gives all six previously mentioned players a nice boost and also solidifies both Ryan McDonagh and Keith Yandle as solid blue-line options.
Tampa Bay was unable to take advantage of a matchup against the struggling Montreal Canadiens on Monday, but they’re hoping to write a different end to the story tonight against another free-falling team in the New York Rangers. They defeated the Rangers in their only previous meeting this season while also knocking them out of the playoffs last season, so there’s plenty of reason for optimism tonight. The Lightning were very pleased to welcome Tyler Johnson back into the lineup on Monday, but it looks like they’ll still be without his former partner Ondrej Palat for at least a few more days. This team still has plenty of firepower buried within it’s forward depth, but the top line of Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov and Vladislav Namestnikov will require the bulk of Alain Vigneault’s attention. Kucherov was fairly quiet to start the season but looks to have grown very comfortable alongside Steven Stamkos by this point. He’s now picked up points in six straight games and has now racked up 7 goals and 7 assists over the last 11 games. On the blue-line, both Anton Stralman and Victor Hedman soak up nearly all of the available time on the point of the power-play and are fine options if you’re not required to pay a premium.
Elite Options
NYR: Rick Nash, Derick Brassard, Mats Zuccarello
TBL: Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman
Secondary Options
NYR: J.T. Miller, Chris Kreider, Derek Stepan, Ryan McDonagh, Keith Yandle, Dan Boyle
TBL: Jonathan Marchessault, Vladislav Namestnikov, Valtteri Filppula, Anton Stralman
Philadelphia Flyers at San Jose Sharks – 10:30 PM EST
| Philadelphia Flyers | San Jose Sharks | ||||||||
 | Steve Mason |  | Martin Jones | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 15-13-7 | 17-16-2 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.14 | 2.66 | 16.50% | 79.00% | Team Stats | 2.71 | 2.86 | 20.40% | 80.90% |
The start of the season resembled a dumpster fire for the Philadelphia Flyers, and while they still have a long way to go before climbing themselves out of the whole that they dug, they have posted a very solid 8-3-2 record over their last 13 games. After falling 4-2 against the Anaheim Ducks on Sunday, they’ll continue their tour of California tonight as they travel north to battle San Jose in the Shark Tank. Claude Giroux remains one of the best young forwards in the game and headlines the top line between Michael Raffl and Brayden Schenn. That line has been awfully quiet lately but is certainly capable of breaking out at any moment. Jakub Voracek has finally come alive offensively as he’s racked up three goals and six assists during his current six-game scoring streak. He’ll be joined by Wayne Simmonds and Sean Couturier on the Flyers second line which finally gives this team a very dangerous secondary scoring option. On the blue-line, Shayne Gostisbehere has been one of the biggest surprises of the young NHL season. He’s racked up 14 points in 19 games and thrived on the point of the team’s #1 power-play unit. However, the Flyers are expecting Mark Streit back in action tonight for the first time in six weeks and his return could cut into Gostisbehere’s playing time just a bit. For now, both players seem like fine targets (specially for GPPs) but it’s definitely a situation to monitor going forward.
The Sharks dropped another game on Monday and now own just a 4-10 record at the SAP Center this season. They now own just a 3-7-2 record during the month of December and would likely be on playoff life support already if they weren’t playing in the putrid Pacific Division. With that said, they’ll face a Philadelphia team that is just 7-8-3 on the road this season and allowing the second most shots on goal per game in the NHL this season (32.6 SA/G). While they clearly still miss Logan Couture, the Sharks have managed to patch together two strong forward lines. Joe Pavelski and Joe Thornton (with Dainius Zubrus) present the biggest challenge for the Flyers defense as Pavelski and Thornton have combined for 9 goals and 13 assists in 12 games this month. On the second line, Patrick Marleau is still putting up fine offensive numbers this season and centers Joel Ward and Matthew Nieto. On the blue-line, Brent Burns has already racked up 32 points in 35 games and unloaded 154 shots on goal. He’s clearly one of the top defensive options on the board, especially considering the Flyers subpar 79.0% penalty kill.
Elite Options
PHI: Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek, Wayne Simmonds, Shayne Gostisbehere
SAN: Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton, Brent Burns
Secondary Options
PHI: Michael Raffl, Brayden Schenn, Mark Streit
SAN: Patrick Marleau, Joel Ward, Justin Braun