The Relief Brief: Thursday, August 18th

by Collin Campbell (collinman005@gmail.com) Last Updated 2016-08-19 02:03:08

Somewhere around 35% of at bats come against a team’s bullpen. Most DFSers, however, pay attention only to the matchup an offense has with starting pitchers.

In order to give RotoGrinders readers an edge on the field, we have developed a Bullpen Pitching article that focuses on bullpen usage and skill, as well as the elements that may come into play on that day in terms of the bullpen pitchers an offense is likeliest to see. Although we developed this article as part of our Premium Content Package, we decided to make this article free to all readers for the remainder of the 2016 MLB season!

Feel free to comment with any other ideas for this article that you would find useful in your own daily research.

Thursday night features a nine game slate. While I won’t break down every bullpen situation, we will begin with the bullpen highlights. Let’s get to it!

1. Bullpen Highlights

Joe Musgrove now has three starts, and has looked good in each while sporting an impressive 2.81 xFIP. The Orioles have been cold at the plate for the better part of two weeks, and there’s no reason to turn to them tonight with the recent form of Musgrove and the current form of a top three bullpen with a 27.2 strikeout percentage.

Jerad Eickhoff has now gone seven straight starts without exceeding 100 pitches thrown, and he has managed to exceed six innings just once over that stretch. Impressively, Eickhoff has failed to reach the five-inning mark just once this season, so he’s a lock for five innings at least, though he has exceeded seven innings just once all season as well. The Phillies bullpen has been mediocre overall, but has been especially susceptible to the long-ball over the last 30 days.

Since his stint on the DL, Carlos Rodon has gone three straight starts with at least six innings, but Rodon has only exceeded six innings twice since mid June. He is unlikely to go deep in this game against the hot hitting Cleveland Indians. The Indians should figure to see a good amount of the worst bullpens in baseball over the last 30 days.

Reynaldo Lopez has three starts in the big leagues in 2016, and has shown impressive endurance. Lopez has exceeded 100 pitches in two of his three starts, and recently tossed a complete nine-inning game in AAA. There’s no reason to think that Lopez can’t go deep into this game against the Braves. The ballpark sets up in his favor as well. The Nats bullpen has been elite this season, but has the third worst SIERA in baseball over the last 30 days. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Lopez have a longer leash than a young pitcher normally would.

Rob Whalen is roughly three weeks younger than Reynaldo Lopez. There’s a bit of uselessness for ya! Hopefully the rest of this will be a bit more useful…. Onwards. Whalen also has three big league starts this season, and has reached five innings in all three starts. While the five-inning plateau is a good mark for a young pitcher to reach, his road to that total has been bumpy, as he has allowed 13 earned runs over those 16 innings. I expect Whalen to fight his way through five innings before giving way to the sixth worst bullpen in baseball in 2016.

Dillon Gee is the anti-Verlander. Gee rarely exceeds six innings. In his nine starts in 2016, Gee has not exceeded six innings on any occasion and has exceeded 100 pitches only once. We should plan on seeing a hefty amount of the Royals bullpen here. The Royals ‘pen should be fresh with the exception of Matt Strahm, though this unit as a whole has been teetering on the verge of mediocrity.

Matt Shoemaker has gone for six or more innings in all of his last six starts. He’ll be pitching in front of one of the worst bullpens in baseball, and I would anticipate him going a bit deeper into this game than usual, both because of bullpen fatigue and bullpen form. Normally, I’d like to attack this ‘pen, but Shoemaker has the stuff and the stamina to go deep into this one if he is on his game.

Archie Bradley has exceeded six innings only twice in his 17 starts. Tonight, he gets to face the Padres at Petco. The Padres have been dreadful over the past two weeks, but this may be just what the doctor ordered to set the offense right. Bradley has given up 14 earned runs in his last 13 innings pitched, and the Diamondbacks bullpen is making a run at the title of “Worst Bullpen In Baseball.”

Paul Clemens has started six games this season, and hasn’t thrown more than five innings in any of them. This is yet another spot with a starting pitcher who is highly unlikely to go deep into this game. The Padres bullpen has been the sixth worst over the last month, including a HR/9 rate of 1.32. The Diamondbacks have a few bats who can capitalize on this situation, and I will likely be looking to roster one or two of them.

My Top 3 Bullpen Situations To Attack

1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
3. San Diego Padres

2. Bullpen Personnel Movement

The Cubs recalled Spencer Patton from AAA. Patton has struggled in limited action in the big leagues this summer.

The Phillies optioned Elvis Araujo to AAA on the day that he was featured as the thumbnail image on this article. I have so much power! In a corresponding move, Frank Herrmann was promoted. Herrmann is likely to work middle relief for the Phillies.

3. Other Notes And Insights

In spite of having the worst bullpen SIERA in baseball over the course of the season, the Cincinnati Reds have the eighth best bullpen SIERA over the last 30 days, including a strikeout percentage of 26.8 (second best in baseball).

Feel free to follow me and ask me questions on Twitter – @collinman005

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