Advanced Stats - Pitching: Tuesday, April 24th
Tuesday offers the full complement of 15 evening games, though four of them start between five and seven PM (ET), leaving us with just an 11 game main slate. As always, all pitchers are listed with notes on main slate pitchers.
Everything below is entirely comprised of 2018 stats where it’s supposed to be, unless multi-year stats are being used. The exceptions are DRA, which Baseball Prospectus has not calculated for 2018 yet and Statcast Home/Away xwOBA (actually all Home/Away), which combines last season with this one.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments (we have these now for premium subscribers!), line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | 5.1 | 4.51 | 5.8 | 48.0% | 0.99 | 3.73 | 5.12 | Rays | 88 | 98 | 141 |
| Andrew Triggs | Athletics | 0.9 | 3.98 | 4.9 | 50.7% | 1.15 | 4.29 | 5.42 | Rangers | 84 | 85 | 98 |
| Brandon McCarthy | Braves | 10.5 | 4.53 | 5.1 | 41.5% | 1.01 | 4.14 | 3.41 | Reds | 89 | 67 | 56 |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 1.4 | 4.39 | 5.7 | 49.7% | 1.03 | 4.11 | 5.23 | Twins | 100 | 89 | 66 |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | 2.6 | 4.67 | 5.1 | 42.3% | 0.98 | 4.58 | 5.11 | Tigers | 57 | 94 | 139 |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | -23.8 | 3.48 | 5.7 | 53.0% | 0.87 | 3.38 | 1.45 | Angels | 120 | 107 | 49 |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | -7.1 | 4.30 | 6.2 | 48.0% | 1.15 | 4.48 | 3.73 | Athletics | 133 | 114 | 147 |
| Dillon Peters | Marlins | -1.6 | 5.18 | 5.0 | 55.6% | 0.90 | 5.86 | 5.89 | Dodgers | 102 | 81 | 115 |
| Hector Santiago | White Sox | -5.2 | 5.27 | 5.2 | 31.6% | 0.98 | 5.71 | 3.69 | Mariners | 117 | 127 | 103 |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | -3.4 | 4.55 | 5.5 | 34.8% | 1.04 | 5.24 | 4.82 | Brewers | 97 | 106 | 140 |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | -12.6 | 4.07 | 5.9 | 45.2% | 1.04 | 3.80 | 3.07 | Red Sox | 109 | 65 | 128 |
| Jake Faria | Rays | -2 | 4.45 | 5.5 | 35.9% | 0.99 | 4.85 | 3.34 | Orioles | 47 | 63 | 82 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | -5.2 | 5.01 | 5.4 | 36.0% | 0.98 | 5.39 | 3.58 | Pirates | 115 | 91 | 57 |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | 0.1 | 4.37 | 5.4 | 39.1% | 1.03 | 4.95 | 1.99 | Yankees | 133 | 119 | 138 |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | 27 | 4.30 | 5.7 | 41.5% | 1.06 | 4.09 | 5.81 | Cubs | 106 | 121 | 141 |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | 0.1 | 3.65 | 5.2 | 41.0% | 0.90 | 3.39 | 3.40 | Marlins | 57 | 68 | 79 |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | 16.9 | 4.91 | 5.3 | 53.1% | 1.33 | 4.29 | 5.64 | Padres | 89 | 94 | 74 |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | 2.2 | 3.49 | 5.1 | 43.2% | 0.92 | 3.29 | 3.44 | Mets | 85 | 113 | 92 |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | 4.04 | 4.1 | 45.3% | 0.98 | 3.97 | 2.58 | White Sox | 95 | 97 | 103 | |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | -3.7 | 4.03 | 6.5 | 41.5% | 1.04 | 4.44 | 2.89 | Blue Jays | 123 | 110 | 109 |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 11.2 | 3.51 | 5.6 | 42.8% | 0.97 | 3.34 | 3.61 | Phillies | 111 | 118 | 90 |
| Shohei Ohtani | Angels | 5.7 | 2.74 | 5.0 | 35.3% | 0.87 | 3.44 | 7.24 | Astros | 80 | 106 | 137 |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | -16.3 | 4.25 | 6.1 | 47.8% | 0.93 | 4.28 | 4.55 | Giants | 99 | 90 | 83 |
| Ty Blach | Giants | 3.2 | 5.25 | 6.0 | 48.6% | 0.93 | 4.97 | 4.30 | Nationals | 102 | 65 | 64 |
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | 5 | 4.79 | 5.6 | 57.7% | 1.06 | 4.53 | 4.42 | Indians | 74 | 80 | 94 |
| Tyler Mahle | Reds | -2.5 | 4.77 | 5.1 | 45.5% | 1.01 | 3.99 | 3.90 | Braves | 103 | 104 | 99 |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | -0.1 | 4.12 | 5.1 | 37.6% | 0.97 | 4.01 | 2.97 | Diamondbacks | 91 | 85 | 75 |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | -4.9 | 4.37 | 5.8 | 47.7% | 1.04 | 4.26 | 4.83 | Royals | 90 | 77 | 104 |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | 3.1 | 4.61 | 5.2 | 47.6% | 0.92 | 4.05 | 4.47 | Cardinals | 95 | 118 | 123 |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | -1.3 | #DIV/0! | 1.33 | Rockies | 74 | 110 | 92 |
The White Sox are the earliest game today. They failed to list a pitcher last night with a choice between Hector Santiago and Chris Volstad. When given a choice between two pitchers, we’re always going to choose the wrong one. It’s now Volstad who will get the start, which probably doesn’t matter much to daily fantasy players either way.
Charlie Morton has gone at least six innings in each of his four starts, allowing an earned run in just one of them, striking out at least 25% in every start. He might be the top overall arm on the board tonight. He’s striking out one-third of batters faced overall with a 60% ground ball rate and a lot of weak contact. The once red-hot Angels are now the coldest offense in baseball (49 wRC+, 24.8 K% last seven days).
J.A. Happ is generating swings and misses like never before, but there’s been absolutely no change in velocity or pitch mix since last season. It almost looks a bit like how Jason Vargas started last year. He was missing lots of bats, nobody understood how, and then he wasn’t again. Since it’s his fastball missing all those bats, which is incredibly odd, maybe it’s where he’s been throwing it? He’s struck out at least eight in three straight starts, but also, those starts were against the White Sox, Orioles and Royals. He’s also allowed a HR in every start. His 91.9 mph aEV and 12.5% Barrels/BBE are two of the higher marks on the board. The Red Sox now look terrible against LHP in a small sample after what Sean Manaea did to them. They’ve been exceptional in games not facing him over the last week (24.5 HR/FB).
Jake Faria started the season with two rough starts against Boston, one of which was absolutely disgusting and probably pulverized his numbers for about another month. Since then, he’s thrown 11.1 innings with two runs allowed, one HR, three walks and 13 strikeouts (43 batters faced). He’s had a double digit SwStr% in both games. However, he’s still generated less than 25% ground balls in each start and has just one game below a 30 Hard-Soft%. While not completely ignoring everything below (hello .400+ xwOBA), we have to acknowledge that the Orioles are not the Red Sox. It might actually be the best matchup on the board among pitchers facing teams whose new owner didn’t sell off every major asset in the lineup. The Orioles have been really bad and they strike out a lot.
Kenta Maeda has bookended one poor start in Arizona with two 10 strikeout performances. He even got to face 28 batters in the most recent effort and why not if he’s missing all those bats (15.1 SwStr%) and inducing all that weak contact (.264 xwOBA, 0 Barrels allowed). He still didn’t get through six innings last time out and the 106 pitches could actually hurt him here, but perhaps the performance is earning more trust and a longer leash. The matchup is exceptional against the Marlins.
Luke Weaver got throttled by the Cubs last time out. I don’t recall him having many bad major league outings. In the two previous starts, he completed six innings with seven strikeouts and a total of just three runs. He’s throwing the Wainwright curveball now 17% of the time. It’s also harder than last year as are all his pitches. He figured out his HR problem last year, has allowed just one this season so far, and has really been a quality arm for the birds. He may have an average matchup turned favorable in a pitcher’s park.
Rick Porcello has gone more sinker, slider, change this year, likely in an effort to solve his HR problem. His ground ball rate is back up 10 points to his career rate just below 50% and he hasn’t allowed a single HR through four starts. It seems that he’s found the correct mix to allow him to miss bats at a reasonable rate too. Although his season mark is just 8.9%, it’s been above 9.5% in each of his last three starts and he’s struck out 19 of his last 77 batters. Quality contact management without walks (just one) and somewhere around a league average strikeout rate is quite a bit to like here. The Blue Jays have been more proficient than you’d expect without the services of Josh Donaldson, but are striking out in a quarter of plate appearances both at home and vs RHP.
Shohei Ohtani against the Astros. What the hell do you do here? We missed an opportunity to see what he could do against a well-disciplined offense when he left his last start against the Red Sox with a blister. The good news is he’s been in the lineup since, which is always a good measure of a pitcher dealing with a blister issue of course. He’s really still only faced Oakland. He has been dominant against Oakland though and the Astros haven’t been completely amazing against RHP so far.
Tanner Roark has had one poor start, in which he also struck out a season high nine, while allowing five runs (two of his three HRs too). While his SwStr has only actually been in double digits in that one start, he’s been around his career 8.7% mark otherwise. He’s also otherwise been what he usually is, a decent contact manager who occasionally misses enough bats to be useful in a daily fantasy setting. He’s in a great spot tonight in San Francisco against an offense with a 20.1 K-BB% vs RHP.
Vince Velasquez has gone three straight starts of six innings or better with one walk and either six or seven strikeouts. It’s not exciting enough to make a lot of people notice, but these are quality outings and more important there seems to be some consistency and command from a pitcher who’s been all over the place since debuting in Philadelphia a few years back. He had some significant hard contact (38.1 Hard%) and HR (15 in 72 IP) issues to last season, which seem to have improved (3.2% Barrels/BBE, 28.6% 95+ mph EV). While Philly is a power friendly park it’s more of a neutral run environment and we’re certainly not afraid of this Arizona lineup as currently constructed. They’ve been striking out a ton too.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.299 BABIP – 72.1 LOB% – 14.2 HR/FB)
Ian Kennedy (.294 – 85.3% – 12) gets away with a bit more hard contact in the air at home (.399 neutralized xwOBA at home since last season is 40 points higher than actual), which is where he’s pitching tonight, but aside from the strand rate, of additional concern is his 7.5 SwStr%. It’s been above 9% only once. He’s not going to sustain his career 22 K% with this. The Brewers are one of the hottest offenses in the league and one of few NL offenses who can probably add a high quality DH to the lineup.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Robbie Ray has walked at least three in every start and struck out at least eight in three of four. I’m pretty much going to always be wrong about him no matter where I fall. I’ve accepted this, but I contend that you need even more strikeouts (he hasn’t fired off a double digit effort yet) if you’re going to accept his other flaws (control and hard contact issues). The good news is that velocity has been back up a bit in his last two starts, though he’s still below last year. He pitches in a very power friendly park against a lineup which has more walks than strikeouts in 167 PAs against southpaws this year. He has the largest price discrepancy on the board and there’s no way I’m paying $11K for him on DraftKings. Some people may, not realizing the Phillies have been good. I’m prepared to be wrong again.
Cole Hamels set season bests in innings pitched (6.1), batters faced (28), walks (0) and home runs (0) last time out in Tampa Bay, but also had a season low four strikeouts. His swinging strike rate has been below 10% in each of his last two starts as the velocity has moved back up, which is strange. He struck out 11 of 21 A’s in Oakland in his second start of the season. It’s just so difficult to find any consistency or pattern with him. He’s really in a dangerous spot as a pitcher who allows a lot of hard contact in a difficult park against an offense that makes a lot of hard contact. He’s allowed two HRs in each of his two home starts.
Zack Wheeler was strong in his first start in Miami, but less so against Washington in his second after a poor spring and one good start in AAA. There’s some talent in this arm and there seems to be a wide range of potential outcomes here (I know, it’s baseball and that’s every game), but the Cardinals are strong against RHP. Many of their right-handed batters hit same-handed pitching well.
Zach Davies is missing bats at a league average rate now, though he’s struck out just six of his last 48 and the contact management is gone. He’s had a hard hit rate above 35% in every start this year, resulting in a .381 xwOBA that’s 50 points worse than his actual.
Chad Kuhl throws hard, but doesn’t miss bats and can’t get LHBs out. Do the Tigers have any good LHBs? Detroit has been one of the hottest teams in the league and have just a 14.6 K% over the last week. Kuhl does increase his strikeout rate to nearly league average at home since last season and the AL loses the DH today. He’s sitting on a .371 BABIP, but looking at the BABIP grid, it doesn’t look like he’s fooling anyone and even has an xwOBA above .400, though, again, he’s been league average at home since last year. I’d have difficulty paying $7K for him.
Andrew Triggs has been favored here in the past and it’s not just one awful outing that knocks him out of contention, as his ERA is well below his estimators. It’s that he’s failed to surpass 22 batters faced in any start. His swinging strike rate is down, which makes this a more dangerous park for him. The Rangers aren’t a great offense, but they hit the ball hard (25 Hard-Soft% vs RHP). He has the highest Z-Contact% on the board.
Jordan Zimmermann is missing more bats this year and his .396 BABIP is ridiculous, while he has an xwOBA 41 points below actual. A .350 xwOBA still doesn’t make him good though.
Ty Blach manages contact well in a great park, but has absolutely no upside. He hasn’t struck out more than four in a start since July.
Kyle Freeland …but the Padres strike out sooo much. Didn’t help the Rockies last night.
Eric Lauer makes his major league debut in Colorado. Who did he piss off? Although with just 18 innings above AA and less than 100 above A ball, his minor league numbers (above average K% at every stop) look a bit more impressive than the 40 Future Value grade slapped on his Fangraphs profile page.
Alex Cobb has been lit up in each of his two starts for Baltimore. First by the Red Sox, but also by the Tigers. Missing a big part of spring training seems to have had an effect on him.
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | L2 Yrs | 16.7% | 6.0% | 14.8% | 21.4% | Season | 9.5% | 4.8% | 27.3% | 33.3% | Home | 20.3% | 4.9% | 12.7% | 22.3% | L14Days | 9.5% | 4.8% | 27.3% | 33.3% |
| Andrew Triggs | Athletics | L2 Yrs | 20.4% | 6.7% | 12.6% | 9.7% | Season | 21.8% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 9.6% | Road | 19.0% | 6.1% | 15.4% | 6.7% | L14Days | 11.8% | 11.8% | 12.5% | -8.0% |
| Brandon McCarthy | Braves | L2 Yrs | 20.8% | 9.5% | 6.4% | 7.7% | Season | 20.5% | 9.1% | 16.7% | 6.4% | Road | 17.3% | 7.3% | 10.5% | -1.4% | L14Days | 22.5% | 10.0% | 11.1% | |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Yrs | 19.4% | 8.1% | 14.9% | 2.1% | Season | 13.6% | 5.1% | 18.8% | 19.5% | Home | 19.9% | 6.9% | 20.0% | 12.8% | L14Days | 5.0% | 5.0% | 29.4% | |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | L2 Yrs | 19.7% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 16.5% | Season | 17.4% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 11.1% | Home | 20.6% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 14.0% | L14Days | 12.0% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 7.7% |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | L2 Yrs | 27.6% | 7.8% | 12.7% | 4.0% | Season | 33.3% | 6.1% | 14.3% | -1.7% | Home | 27.5% | 8.2% | 17.1% | 3.4% | L14Days | 41.7% | 2.1% | 22.2% | 18.5% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Yrs | 21.3% | 8.8% | 13.7% | 18.7% | Season | 27.0% | 8.7% | 26.9% | 25.0% | Home | 19.4% | 9.3% | 14.7% | 30.1% | L14Days | 20.0% | 3.6% | 15.4% | 19.5% |
| Dillon Peters | Marlins | L2 Yrs | 17.1% | 13.2% | 17.9% | 12.2% | Season | 13.5% | 12.4% | 20.0% | 30.7% | Road | 13.5% | 16.9% | 41.7% | 15.0% | L14Days | 15.9% | 15.9% | 18.2% | 33.3% |
| Hector Santiago | White Sox | L2 Yrs | 17.7% | 10.3% | 12.2% | 19.6% | Season | 25.0% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 11.7% | Home | 17.6% | 7.3% | 13.8% | 17.2% | L14Days | 27.3% | 12.1% | 18.2% | 15.0% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Yrs | 21.1% | 8.6% | 14.5% | 23.9% | Season | 22.0% | 7.0% | 12.0% | 26.8% | Home | 20.5% | 10.4% | 17.2% | 35.0% | L14Days | 16.4% | 9.1% | 21.4% | 21.9% |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | L2 Yrs | 22.5% | 7.5% | 12.9% | 10.3% | Season | 32.0% | 7.2% | 27.8% | 12.5% | Home | 23.7% | 8.2% | 16.3% | 14.1% | L14Days | 32.1% | 9.4% | 20.0% | 6.9% |
| Jake Faria | Rays | L2 Yrs | 22.7% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 15.6% | Season | 19.0% | 13.9% | 7.7% | 34.6% | Road | 23.1% | 10.6% | 13.3% | 10.3% | L14Days | 30.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 33.4% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Yrs | 14.8% | 5.9% | 12.4% | 20.7% | Season | 24.7% | 5.5% | 12.5% | 13.7% | Road | 14.6% | 7.0% | 13.0% | 22.7% | L14Days | 25.9% | 7.4% | 42.9% | 33.4% |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | L2 Yrs | 21.8% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 7.3% | Season | 29.3% | 1.0% | 4.3% | -16.2% | Road | 20.1% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 7.5% | L14Days | 33.3% | -12.9% | ||
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | L2 Yrs | 16.8% | 2.8% | 16.1% | 19.2% | Season | 8.3% | 8.3% | 21.1% | 15.4% | Home | 18.9% | 3.4% | 15.6% | 19.4% | L14Days | 10.0% | 10.0% | ||
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | L2 Yrs | 25.9% | 6.7% | 13.3% | 9.4% | Season | 34.8% | 7.3% | 28.2% | Home | 27.2% | 5.5% | 9.6% | 5.4% | L14Days | 27.9% | 9.3% | 30.8% | ||
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | L2 Yrs | 16.0% | 9.3% | 13.7% | 7.7% | Season | 19.1% | 10.1% | 20.0% | 8.0% | Home | 17.5% | 9.1% | 11.8% | 3.4% | L14Days | 14.6% | 12.2% | 7.1% | 13.3% |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | L2 Yrs | 26.9% | 6.9% | 15.0% | 11.4% | Season | 22.2% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 17.4% | Home | 26.2% | 6.6% | 12.1% | 7.2% | L14Days | 21.7% | 4.4% | 9.1% | 9.1% |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | L2 Yrs | 19.7% | 5.4% | 17.5% | 12.0% | Season | 25.7% | 4.1% | 16.7% | 29.4% | Road | 19.1% | 7.5% | 19.2% | 16.9% | L14Days | 33.3% | 5.9% | 30.0% | |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Yrs | 20.5% | 4.3% | 10.9% | 16.9% | Season | 23.0% | 1.0% | 6.8% | Road | 19.5% | 5.1% | 14.5% | 23.8% | L14Days | 24.5% | 2.9% | |||
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | L2 Yrs | 30.9% | 9.9% | 16.7% | 23.9% | Season | 33.0% | 14.4% | 23.8% | 40.0% | Road | 34.5% | 10.3% | 12.1% | 21.3% | L14Days | 31.3% | 12.5% | 22.2% | 38.5% |
| Shohei Ohtani | Angels | L2 Yrs | 33.3% | 7.0% | 15.4% | -8.8% | Season | 33.3% | 7.0% | 15.4% | -8.8% | Road | 27.3% | 4.6% | 14.3% | -26.6% | L14Days | 8.3% | 16.7% | 33.3% | |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Yrs | 21.4% | 8.4% | 11.5% | 6.8% | Season | 24.5% | 9.2% | 11.5% | 4.7% | Road | 20.9% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 13.9% | L14Days | 18.4% | 8.2% | 6.7% | -2.9% |
| Ty Blach | Giants | L2 Yrs | 11.0% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 12.9% | Season | 11.2% | 10.3% | 5.9% | 18.7% | Home | 11.5% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 12.1% | L14Days | 13.7% | 7.8% | 12.5% | 15.0% |
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | L2 Yrs | 18.8% | 12.3% | 16.3% | 8.4% | Season | 24.3% | 18.9% | 6.7% | -2.3% | Road | 19.1% | 13.3% | 16.1% | 0.4% | L14Days | 29.8% | 17.0% | 11.1% | 4.0% |
| Tyler Mahle | Reds | L2 Yrs | 18.5% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 15.0% | Season | 21.7% | 7.6% | 22.7% | 28.1% | Home | 25.0% | 8.8% | 13.3% | 25.5% | L14Days | 22.9% | 8.3% | 30.0% | 27.3% |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | L2 Yrs | 24.3% | 9.2% | 16.2% | 18.1% | Season | 26.1% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 9.5% | Home | 25.4% | 8.8% | 21.3% | 19.0% | L14Days | 28.6% | 4.1% | 7.7% | 9.0% |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | L2 Yrs | 17.7% | 6.2% | 12.6% | 12.9% | Season | 20.8% | 7.3% | 18.2% | 34.4% | Road | 15.6% | 6.0% | 12.1% | 6.3% | L14Days | 12.5% | 8.3% | 20.0% | 29.7% |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | L2 Yrs | 20.6% | 10.1% | 17.6% | 12.3% | Season | 17.7% | 7.8% | 7.1% | -2.7% | Road | 20.5% | 7.0% | 15.9% | 12.7% | L14Days | 17.7% | 7.8% | 7.1% | -2.7% |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | L2 Yrs | Season | Road | L14Days |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rays | Road | 24.6% | 11.4% | 5.8% | 8.0% | RH | 23.4% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 17.2% | L7Days | 24.4% | 6.7% | 19.4% | 42.6% |
| Rangers | Home | 23.7% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 24.6% | RH | 24.3% | 8.5% | 12.9% | 25.0% | L7Days | 21.1% | 9.9% | 11.4% | 37.2% |
| Reds | Home | 27.1% | 10.3% | 13.4% | 11.1% | RH | 23.9% | 9.0% | 6.2% | 10.1% | L7Days | 21.5% | 10.0% | 2.4% | 26.9% |
| Twins | Road | 23.9% | 8.0% | 13.1% | 15.8% | LH | 28.0% | 9.1% | 5.6% | 2.5% | L7Days | 23.7% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 16.4% |
| Tigers | Road | 22.0% | 8.3% | 3.0% | 9.6% | RH | 18.0% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 21.0% | L7Days | 14.6% | 7.5% | 13.7% | 29.0% |
| Angels | Road | 15.3% | 5.5% | 10.3% | 21.2% | RH | 18.5% | 6.1% | 12.0% | 20.3% | L7Days | 24.8% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 10.2% |
| Athletics | Road | 21.6% | 8.4% | 19.4% | 26.3% | LH | 23.4% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 24.7% | L7Days | 20.0% | 11.5% | 9.4% | 37.5% |
| Dodgers | Home | 24.2% | 7.6% | 11.7% | 7.5% | LH | 23.8% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 16.6% | L7Days | 25.3% | 9.3% | 12.5% | 22.0% |
| Mariners | Road | 18.0% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 18.2% | LH | 18.3% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 14.4% | L7Days | 22.8% | 4.6% | 13.8% | 18.3% |
| Brewers | Road | 21.0% | 7.5% | 12.7% | 6.8% | RH | 25.5% | 8.9% | 16.8% | 13.6% | L7Days | 24.0% | 13.6% | 21.7% | 33.1% |
| Red Sox | Road | 17.8% | 7.2% | 14.9% | 19.0% | LH | 21.0% | 9.1% | 6.3% | 5.7% | L7Days | 19.8% | 6.5% | 24.5% | 21.3% |
| Orioles | Home | 23.9% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 7.3% | RH | 26.6% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 7.6% | L7Days | 24.4% | 7.7% | 12.7% | 16.2% |
| Pirates | Home | 15.5% | 10.7% | 7.0% | 8.5% | RH | 19.9% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 11.1% | L7Days | 24.7% | 6.8% | 5.0% | -3.4% |
| Yankees | Home | 21.5% | 13.1% | 16.8% | 17.3% | RH | 22.2% | 11.2% | 14.7% | 15.2% | L7Days | 20.2% | 12.7% | 19.0% | 21.6% |
| Cubs | Road | 22.8% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 11.5% | RH | 20.9% | 9.2% | 12.0% | 5.8% | L7Days | 19.3% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 5.5% |
| Marlins | Road | 27.6% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 4.9% | RH | 24.8% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 3.7% | L7Days | 24.5% | 8.2% | 12.5% | 11.3% |
| Padres | Road | 28.2% | 6.1% | 16.1% | 10.2% | LH | 26.7% | 6.6% | 16.4% | 19.0% | L7Days | 30.7% | 8.4% | 13.9% | 23.6% |
| Mets | Road | 25.3% | 10.9% | 11.4% | 15.5% | RH | 22.4% | 11.3% | 12.2% | 13.8% | L7Days | 23.0% | 11.0% | 6.7% | 22.3% |
| White Sox | Home | 23.6% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 8.9% | LH | 30.1% | 9.7% | 25.7% | 22.6% | L7Days | 22.1% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 20.7% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 25.6% | 10.4% | 17.4% | 19.3% | RH | 24.7% | 11.1% | 16.5% | 16.1% | L7Days | 22.8% | 12.6% | 11.8% | 20.6% |
| Phillies | Home | 24.9% | 11.8% | 14.3% | 8.6% | LH | 18.6% | 19.2% | 11.4% | 11.7% | L7Days | 28.8% | 12.7% | 5.3% | 10.6% |
| Astros | Home | 24.5% | 8.5% | 13.2% | 5.4% | RH | 22.8% | 11.4% | 8.3% | 9.6% | L7Days | 20.6% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 4.6% |
| Giants | Home | 24.6% | 7.4% | 15.4% | 19.5% | RH | 25.8% | 5.7% | 11.6% | 21.2% | L7Days | 27.5% | 6.7% | 15.4% | 19.3% |
| Nationals | Road | 21.4% | 11.7% | 15.2% | 12.4% | LH | 25.9% | 11.3% | 8.9% | 11.1% | L7Days | 22.7% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 12.0% |
| Indians | Home | 19.3% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 26.7% | RH | 23.9% | 7.2% | 14.3% | 17.9% | L7Days | 22.5% | 4.8% | 15.3% | 11.8% |
| Braves | Road | 19.5% | 10.2% | 12.7% | 3.9% | RH | 20.6% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 8.7% | L7Days | 22.7% | 8.4% | 11.1% | 19.7% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 28.0% | 8.6% | 16.7% | 21.3% | RH | 26.1% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 18.1% | L7Days | 27.1% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 25.4% |
| Royals | Home | 20.7% | 8.5% | 5.6% | 24.3% | RH | 16.6% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 19.3% | L7Days | 17.9% | 8.4% | 13.6% | 20.9% |
| Cardinals | Home | 21.7% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 12.8% | RH | 22.7% | 10.1% | 18.4% | 14.3% | L7Days | 21.9% | 15.3% | 14.3% | 21.5% |
| Rockies | Home | 24.5% | 9.2% | 19.0% | 3.7% | LH | 27.7% | 10.6% | 24.2% | 13.5% | L7Days | 21.6% | 10.1% | 13.0% | 5.9% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | 9.5% | 6.0% | 1.58 | 9.5% | 6.0% | 1.58 |
| Andrew Triggs | Athletics | 21.8% | 8.4% | 2.60 | 21.8% | 8.4% | 2.60 |
| Brandon McCarthy | Braves | 20.5% | 6.3% | 3.25 | 20.5% | 6.3% | 3.25 |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 13.6% | 9.9% | 1.37 | 13.6% | 9.9% | 1.37 |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | 17.4% | 7.5% | 2.32 | 17.4% | 7.5% | 2.32 |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | 33.3% | 15.9% | 2.09 | 33.3% | 15.9% | 2.09 |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | 27.0% | 12.6% | 2.14 | 27.0% | 12.6% | 2.14 |
| Dillon Peters | Marlins | 13.5% | 8.1% | 1.67 | 13.5% | 8.1% | 1.67 |
| Hector Santiago | White Sox | 25.0% | 10.3% | 2.43 | 25.0% | 10.3% | 2.43 |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | 22.0% | 7.5% | 2.93 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 2.93 |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | 32.0% | 14.3% | 2.24 | 32.0% | 14.3% | 2.24 |
| Jake Faria | Rays | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.60 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.60 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | 24.7% | 10.8% | 2.29 | 24.7% | 10.8% | 2.29 |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | 29.3% | 10.6% | 2.76 | 29.3% | 10.6% | 2.76 |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | 8.3% | 11.3% | 0.73 | 8.3% | 11.3% | 0.73 |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | 34.8% | 15.1% | 2.30 | 34.8% | 15.1% | 2.30 |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | 19.1% | 7.2% | 2.65 | 19.1% | 7.2% | 2.65 |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | 22.2% | 8.9% | 2.49 | 22.2% | 8.9% | 2.49 |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | 25.7% | 8.9% | 2.89 | 25.7% | 8.9% | 2.89 |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 23.0% | 8.9% | 2.58 | 23.0% | 8.9% | 2.58 |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 33.0% | 13.1% | 2.52 | 33.0% | 13.1% | 2.52 |
| Shohei Ohtani | Angels | 33.3% | 18.1% | 1.84 | 33.3% | 18.1% | 1.84 |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | 24.5% | 10.5% | 2.33 | 24.5% | 10.5% | 2.33 |
| Ty Blach | Giants | 11.2% | 5.7% | 1.96 | 11.2% | 5.7% | 1.96 |
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | 24.3% | 9.3% | 2.61 | 24.3% | 9.3% | 2.61 |
| Tyler Mahle | Reds | 21.7% | 9.4% | 2.31 | 21.7% | 9.4% | 2.31 |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | 26.1% | 10.3% | 2.53 | 26.1% | 10.3% | 2.53 |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | 20.8% | 9.9% | 2.10 | 20.8% | 9.9% | 2.10 |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | 17.7% | 9.3% | 1.90 | 17.7% | 9.3% | 1.90 |
| Eric Lauer | Padres |
Luke Weaver has a decreased SwStr%, but it’s really been up and down, above 12% twice and below 8% twice as well.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | 15.43 | 5.12 | -10.31 | 15.43 | -10.16 | 8.44 | -6.99 | 4.02 | -11.41 | 15.43 | 5.12 | -10.31 | 5.27 | -10.16 | 8.44 | -6.99 |
| Andrew Triggs | Athletics | 5.82 | 4.17 | -1.65 | 5.82 | -1.55 | 4.27 | -1.55 | 3.54 | -2.28 | 5.82 | 4.17 | -1.65 | 4.27 | -1.55 | 4.27 | -1.55 |
| Brandon McCarthy | Braves | 2.91 | 4.00 | 1.09 | 2.91 | 0.54 | 3.80 | 0.89 | 4.72 | 1.81 | 2.91 | 4.01 | 1.10 | 3.45 | 0.54 | 3.80 | 0.89 |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 2.70 | 4.60 | 1.90 | 2.70 | 2.21 | 6.01 | 3.31 | 4.66 | 1.96 | 2.70 | 4.61 | 1.91 | 4.91 | 2.21 | 6.01 | 3.31 |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | 4.57 | 4.44 | -0.13 | 4.57 | -0.26 | 4.03 | -0.54 | 5.15 | 0.58 | 4.57 | 4.45 | -0.12 | 4.31 | -0.26 | 4.03 | -0.54 |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | 0.72 | 2.35 | 1.63 | 0.72 | 1.61 | 2.52 | 1.80 | 3.49 | 2.77 | 0.72 | 2.35 | 1.63 | 2.33 | 1.61 | 2.52 | 1.80 |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | 4.76 | 3.51 | -1.25 | 4.76 | -1.33 | 5.24 | 0.48 | 4.51 | -0.25 | 4.76 | 3.51 | -1.25 | 3.43 | -1.33 | 5.24 | 0.48 |
| Dillon Peters | Marlins | 6.98 | 5.58 | -1.40 | 6.98 | -1.62 | 6.47 | -0.51 | 6.49 | -0.49 | 6.98 | 5.58 | -1.40 | 5.36 | -1.62 | 6.47 | -0.51 |
| Hector Santiago | White Sox | 4.26 | 4.08 | -0.18 | 4.26 | 1.23 | 4.89 | 0.63 | 7.92 | 3.66 | 4.26 | 4.08 | -0.18 | 5.49 | 1.23 | 4.89 | 0.63 |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | 2.35 | 3.97 | 1.62 | 2.35 | 1.47 | 3.85 | 1.50 | 5.76 | 3.41 | 2.35 | 3.97 | 1.62 | 3.82 | 1.47 | 3.85 | 1.50 |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | 4.50 | 2.82 | -1.68 | 4.50 | -1.55 | 4.66 | 0.16 | 3.73 | -0.77 | 4.50 | 2.82 | -1.68 | 2.95 | -1.55 | 4.66 | 0.16 |
| Jake Faria | Rays | 5.82 | 5.47 | -0.35 | 5.82 | 0.03 | 5.04 | -0.78 | 3.87 | -1.95 | 5.82 | 5.47 | -0.35 | 5.85 | 0.03 | 5.04 | -0.78 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | 7.71 | 3.65 | -4.06 | 7.71 | -3.78 | 4.07 | -3.64 | 6.25 | -1.46 | 7.71 | 3.65 | -4.06 | 3.93 | -3.78 | 4.07 | -3.64 |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | 1.63 | 2.52 | 0.89 | 1.63 | 0.92 | 1.75 | 0.12 | 3.53 | 1.90 | 1.63 | 2.52 | 0.89 | 2.55 | 0.92 | 1.75 | 0.12 |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | 8.00 | 6.24 | -1.76 | 8.00 | -0.84 | 9.71 | 1.71 | 5.25 | -2.75 | 8.00 | 6.24 | -1.76 | 7.16 | -0.84 | 9.71 | 1.71 |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | 3.77 | 2.48 | -1.29 | 3.77 | -1.75 | 1.06 | -2.71 | 3.94 | 0.17 | 3.77 | 2.49 | -1.28 | 2.02 | -1.75 | 1.06 | -2.71 |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | 5.85 | 4.65 | -1.20 | 5.85 | -1.13 | 6.06 | 0.21 | 5.86 | 0.01 | 5.85 | 4.65 | -1.20 | 4.72 | -1.13 | 6.06 | 0.21 |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | 4.22 | 3.82 | -0.40 | 4.22 | -0.24 | 2.88 | -1.34 | 3.78 | -0.44 | 4.22 | 3.83 | -0.39 | 3.98 | -0.24 | 2.88 | -1.34 |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | 5.94 | 2.99 | -2.95 | 5.94 | -3.24 | 3.16 | -2.78 | 5.87 | -0.07 | 5.94 | 3.00 | -2.94 | 2.7 | -3.24 | 3.16 | -2.78 |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 1.40 | 3.11 | 1.71 | 1.40 | 1.92 | 1.71 | 0.31 | 5.62 | 4.22 | 1.40 | 3.11 | 1.71 | 3.32 | 1.92 | 1.71 | 0.31 |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 4.98 | 3.72 | -1.26 | 4.98 | -1.22 | 5.28 | 0.30 | 3.60 | -1.38 | 4.98 | 3.72 | -1.26 | 3.76 | -1.22 | 5.28 | 0.30 |
| Shohei Ohtani | Angels | 3.60 | 2.74 | -0.86 | 3.60 | -0.85 | 3.16 | -0.44 | 3.60 | 2.74 | -0.86 | 2.75 | -0.85 | 3.16 | -0.44 | ||
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | 3.24 | 3.92 | 0.68 | 3.24 | 0.78 | 4.00 | 0.76 | 4.00 | 0.76 | 3.24 | 3.92 | 0.68 | 4.02 | 0.78 | 4.00 | 0.76 |
| Ty Blach | Giants | 4.10 | 5.03 | 0.93 | 4.10 | 0.42 | 4.03 | -0.07 | 6.61 | 2.51 | 4.10 | 5.03 | 0.93 | 4.52 | 0.42 | 4.03 | -0.07 |
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | 4.60 | 5.33 | 0.73 | 4.60 | 0.40 | 4.37 | -0.23 | 4.78 | 0.18 | 4.60 | 5.34 | 0.74 | 5 | 0.40 | 4.37 | -0.23 |
| Tyler Mahle | Reds | 5.14 | 4.03 | -1.11 | 5.14 | -1.15 | 5.49 | 0.35 | 5.11 | -0.03 | 5.14 | 4.03 | -1.11 | 3.99 | -1.15 | 5.49 | 0.35 |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | 3.80 | 3.32 | -0.48 | 3.80 | -0.62 | 2.22 | -1.58 | 5.54 | 1.74 | 3.80 | 3.33 | -0.47 | 3.18 | -0.62 | 2.22 | -1.58 |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | 4.84 | 4.04 | -0.80 | 4.84 | -0.76 | 4.90 | 0.06 | 3.99 | -0.85 | 4.84 | 4.05 | -0.79 | 4.08 | -0.76 | 4.90 | 0.06 |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | 2.77 | 4.47 | 1.70 | 2.77 | 1.57 | 3.69 | 0.92 | 7.01 | 4.24 | 2.77 | 4.47 | 1.70 | 4.34 | 1.57 | 3.69 | 0.92 |
| Eric Lauer | Padres |
Charlie Morton has a .250 BABIP and 99.1 LOB%. That latter is, of course, ridiculous, but the former seems to be well supported in the two tables below. Both his BABIP and contact quality profile have been exceptional.
J.A. Happ has a 27.8 HR/FB.
Rick Porcello is going to eventually allow a HR, but it’s pretty amazing he hasn’t after last year. That 82.6 LOB% is a candidate for regression too.
Tanner Roark will not sustain a .180 BABIP, although his profile below is not bad. One does wonder how that’s only led to a 70.7% strand rate so far though.
Vince Velasquez has a .371 BABIP with a high line drive rate that’s more descriptive than predictive, along with a 61.6 LOB%. His 4.5 HR/FB is at the opposite end of the spectrum and also the opposite of what he did last year.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | 0.321 | 0.515 | 0.194 | 41.7% | 27.8% | 9.1% | 92.3% | 43.0% |
| Andrew Triggs | Athletics | 0.290 | 0.320 | 0.030 | 53.8% | 13.5% | 11.8% | 93.3% | 28.7% |
| Brandon McCarthy | Braves | 0.290 | 0.300 | 0.010 | 50.0% | 30.0% | 0.0% | 90.7% | 41.6% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 0.295 | 0.233 | -0.062 | 47.8% | 17.4% | 18.8% | 87.5% | 26.0% |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | 0.292 | 0.371 | 0.079 | 38.6% | 31.4% | 14.3% | 89.5% | 44.2% |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | 0.271 | 0.250 | -0.021 | 60.3% | 15.5% | 14.3% | 76.7% | 31.6% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | 0.331 | 0.315 | -0.016 | 45.0% | 22.5% | 3.8% | 79.2% | 30.8% |
| Dillon Peters | Marlins | 0.305 | 0.295 | -0.010 | 44.4% | 23.8% | 20.0% | 88.4% | 42.3% |
| Hector Santiago | White Sox | 0.316 | 0.313 | -0.003 | 26.5% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 82.6% | 36.5% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | 0.285 | 0.294 | 0.009 | 33.3% | 30.4% | 20.0% | 89.6% | 37.9% |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | 0.306 | 0.314 | 0.008 | 48.2% | 19.6% | 11.1% | 79.7% | 43.2% |
| Jake Faria | Rays | 0.294 | 0.280 | -0.014 | 25.0% | 25.0% | 11.5% | 88.4% | 39.0% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | 0.284 | 0.396 | 0.112 | 29.4% | 23.5% | 29.2% | 88.2% | 31.6% |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | 0.297 | 0.209 | -0.088 | 42.4% | 22.7% | 26.1% | 86.9% | 33.0% |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | 0.238 | 0.314 | 0.076 | 28.2% | 23.1% | 15.8% | 84.4% | 45.0% |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | 0.295 | 0.513 | 0.218 | 46.2% | 30.8% | 0.0% | 77.7% | 33.3% |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | 0.307 | 0.293 | -0.014 | 46.7% | 11.7% | 0.0% | 90.8% | 33.8% |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | 0.297 | 0.323 | 0.026 | 47.5% | 13.1% | 16.7% | 86.6% | 48.4% |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | 0.301 | 0.429 | 0.128 | 45.1% | 31.4% | 8.3% | 86.7% | 34.4% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 0.283 | 0.270 | -0.013 | 49.3% | 13.7% | 7.4% | 87.7% | 32.8% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 0.260 | 0.311 | 0.051 | 33.3% | 22.9% | 9.5% | 85.6% | 37.9% |
| Shohei Ohtani | Angels | 0.287 | 0.188 | -0.099 | 35.3% | 26.5% | 15.4% | 72.6% | 34.0% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | 0.280 | 0.180 | -0.100 | 40.6% | 18.8% | 19.2% | 86.4% | 38.7% |
| Ty Blach | Giants | 0.268 | 0.322 | 0.054 | 56.3% | 24.1% | 5.9% | 92.7% | 38.7% |
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | 0.295 | 0.317 | 0.022 | 50.0% | 12.5% | 6.7% | 86.7% | 38.1% |
| Tyler Mahle | Reds | 0.280 | 0.356 | 0.076 | 38.7% | 25.8% | 4.5% | 83.5% | 34.6% |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | 0.280 | 0.371 | 0.091 | 34.4% | 29.5% | 4.5% | 82.6% | 40.7% |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | 0.279 | 0.286 | 0.007 | 43.1% | 23.1% | 4.5% | 85.4% | 38.0% |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | 0.284 | 0.216 | -0.068 | 48.6% | 13.5% | 0.0% | 86.8% | 32.6% |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | 0.300 |
Charlie Morton has the highest ground ball rate and lowest Z-Contact% along with strong popup and line drive rates, which helps explain not only his low BABIP, but some things below as well.
J.A. Happ is missing a lot of bats with his fastball and from the link embedded above, we see that he’s more often elevating it. These numbers tell us some more. He’s elevating it, but still inside the strike zone, which batters are swinging and missing at a lot, but also hitting a long way occasionally.
Kenta Maeda has some strange batted balls numbers in a small sample. A BABIP above .500 and a 30% line drive rate without a single barreled ball?
Luke Weaver has a profile that suggests improvement, but he’s not getting anybody to chase this year.
StatCast Chart
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | 0.535 | 0.043 | 0.295 | -0.035 | 0.535 | 0.043 | -1.8 | 94.2 | 13.9 | 61.1 | 36 |
| Andrew Triggs | Athletics | 0.364 | -0.039 | 0.305 | 0.004 | 0.364 | -0.039 | -0.9 | 89.8 | 9.6 | 40.4 | 52 |
| Brandon McCarthy | Braves | 0.348 | -0.030 | 0.336 | -0.011 | 0.348 | -0.030 | -1.2 | 89.4 | 8.1 | 32.3 | 62 |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 0.382 | -0.061 | 0.330 | -0.017 | 0.382 | -0.061 | 0.5 | 87.8 | 8.7 | 37.0 | 46 |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | 0.407 | -0.041 | 0.328 | -0.006 | 0.407 | -0.041 | -0.6 | 89.3 | 6.9 | 37.5 | 72 |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | 0.231 | -0.007 | 0.290 | 0.000 | 0.231 | -0.007 | -0.9 | 86.5 | 1.7 | 25.9 | 58 |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | 0.364 | -0.008 | 0.349 | -0.022 | 0.364 | -0.008 | -0.5 | 88.8 | 11.3 | 40.0 | 80 |
| Dillon Peters | Marlins | 0.396 | -0.016 | 0.442 | 0.005 | 0.396 | -0.016 | -1.6 | 92.8 | 9.2 | 52.3 | 65 |
| Hector Santiago | White Sox | 0.304 | 0.042 | 0.360 | -0.019 | 0.304 | 0.042 | -1.3 | 89.1 | 11.8 | 35.3 | 34 |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | 0.382 | -0.085 | 0.399 | -0.040 | 0.382 | -0.085 | -0.1 | 91.4 | 12.7 | 46.5 | 71 |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | 0.353 | -0.027 | 0.323 | -0.002 | 0.353 | -0.027 | -0.8 | 91.9 | 12.5 | 42.9 | 56 |
| Jake Faria | Rays | 0.406 | -0.081 | 0.339 | 0.002 | 0.406 | -0.081 | -1.1 | 89.3 | 11.5 | 38.5 | 52 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | 0.350 | 0.041 | 0.362 | 0.012 | 0.350 | 0.041 | -0.7 | 89.7 | 11.8 | 39.2 | 51 |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | 0.217 | -0.052 | 0.332 | -0.005 | 0.217 | -0.052 | -0.7 | 80.9 | 2.9 | 13.2 | 68 |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | 0.459 | -0.011 | 0.353 | 0.004 | 0.459 | -0.011 | -1.5 | 88.6 | 12.8 | 35.9 | 39 |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | 0.264 | 0.071 | 0.264 | 0.001 | 0.264 | 0.071 | -0.8 | 88.5 | 0.0 | 33.3 | 39 |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | 0.348 | 0.021 | 0.288 | 0.039 | 0.348 | 0.021 | 0.5 | 87.2 | 9.5 | 33.3 | 63 |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | 0.300 | -0.011 | 0.293 | -0.003 | 0.300 | -0.011 | -1.0 | 87.7 | 4.8 | 36.5 | 63 |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | 0.365 | -0.006 | 0.378 | 0.026 | 0.365 | -0.006 | -0.7 | 91.2 | 7.8 | 49.0 | 51 |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 0.219 | -0.008 | 0.332 | -0.012 | 0.219 | -0.008 | -0.6 | 85.5 | 2.7 | 21.6 | 74 |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 0.370 | -0.027 | 0.276 | -0.022 | 0.370 | -0.027 | -0.6 | 91.8 | 12.0 | 58.0 | 50 |
| Shohei Ohtani | Angels | 0.274 | -0.064 | 0.259 | -0.058 | 0.274 | -0.064 | 0.2 | 85.8 | 5.9 | 23.5 | 34 |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | 0.300 | -0.059 | 0.316 | -0.027 | 0.300 | -0.059 | -1.2 | 85.5 | 4.7 | 34.4 | 64 |
| Ty Blach | Giants | 0.345 | -0.016 | 0.341 | -0.035 | 0.345 | -0.016 | -2.5 | 87 | 3.3 | 37.4 | 91 |
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | 0.335 | 0.010 | 0.313 | -0.013 | 0.335 | 0.010 | -1.0 | 84.9 | 7.1 | 16.7 | 42 |
| Tyler Mahle | Reds | 0.403 | -0.015 | 0.331 | -0.006 | 0.403 | -0.015 | -0.4 | 90.3 | 14.1 | 45.3 | 64 |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | 0.291 | 0.005 | 0.353 | 0.020 | 0.291 | 0.005 | -0.3 | 88.1 | 3.2 | 28.6 | 63 |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | 0.381 | -0.050 | 0.333 | -0.035 | 0.381 | -0.050 | -1.0 | 88.7 | 9.0 | 44.8 | 67 |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | 0.317 | -0.079 | 0.303 | 0.029 | 0.317 | -0.079 | 0.7 | 84.4 | 5.3 | 26.3 | 38 |
| Eric Lauer | Padres |
Charlie Morton has allowed the second lowest rate of barrels on the board. See notes above.
J.A. Happ is having success with the high heat, but paying the consequences occasionally as well.
Rick Porcello has the second lowest xwOBA on the board and the lowest on the main slate. He’s completely turned around the quality of contact allowed so far.
Tanner Roark continues to be a quality contact manager in most starts. While his xwOBA is well above his actual rate, it’s still better than the league average.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Most of the higher upside arms find themselves with increased risk tonight while there are otherwise a lot of competent, but unexciting arms on this board. It makes for a difficult mix. I’ve moved guys beyond the top two or three up and down the board a number of times.
Value Tier One
Charlie Morton (1) is the most expensive pitcher on the board and the only one who comes close to reaching $10K on FanDuel. He has been completely lights out. The Astros are turning these castoff pitchers into Terminators. The Angels are difficult opponent to assess. They’ve not only gone ice cold, but have been striking out a lot more too, though they still have the fourth lowest rate in the majors against RHP.
Value Tier Two
Vince Velasquez (4) has been a different pitcher in all the right ways. The most significant pitch mix change seems to be more cutters (20%), but more importantly, he’s not walking anyone and managing contact well. Will this last? Who knows, but he’s in a nice spot at a low cost tonight and I think he’s shown enough to get a bump up on a board without a lot of high upside arms in strong spots.
Kenta Maeda (2t) may or may not see 100 pitches again tonight. My guess would be not after having just recently done it, otherwise he might be a top tier arm against the Marlins for just over $9K. You can put up a 20 burger (DK) on Miami in five plus innings.
Tanner Roark (5) is more a high floor guy in a great spot than one with tremendous upside. He’s one of only four pitchers on the board to average more than six innings per start over the last two calendar years. I expect them to be quality innings tonight at a cost below $8.5K.
Value Tier Three
Shohei Ohtani (2t) certainly has the talent to succeed here. Even against the Astros he should probably be a $10K pitcher (it’s a great park), but he’s not. This could go bad (it could go great), but there’s likely at least some value here.
Jake Faria has been better against non-Boston teams and has a matchup on the complete opposite end of the spectrum tonight. There’s still some concern about the quality of contact he’s allowing in a power friendly park, but he’s below $6.5K on either site.
Luke Weaver should be fine at home against the Mets at a reasonable cost. He’s one of just two pitchers in the middle price range who costs much more on FanDuel ($1K). Not much really stands out, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing.
Rick Porcello is still not the highest upside arm on the board and isn’t cheap, but he has been better while maintaining a strikeout rate above average. He’s not in a great spot tonight though and comes with one of the higher costs on the board, but averages the most innings per start on the board over the last two years.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
J.A. Happ is not in a great spot. In fact, I’d expect either Mookie or J.D. are likely to leave the park tonight, but the cost may be too low for the strikeout upside, though that too, is likely suppressed a bit against Boston. He’s probably still a $9K pitcher here.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.