MLB GPP Plays: Friday, August 12th
Every Tuesday and Friday I am going to give you my top tournament plays for all Daily Fantasy Baseball GPPs (guaranteed prize pool). GPPs are a general term used across the industry for your big money tournaments.
GPPs are very different from your cash games and you use a different strategy with them. In our GPPs we are not interested in safe plays, since GPPs are all about UPSIDE. We want players who can explode, as all-or-nothing type players can become GPP gold, and your value players are just as important as your star players. You need your players to have huge nights in order to take down these big tournaments.
My goal is to provide players who will be under-owned and have that big game upside you are looking for. I will also try to find as much value as I possibly can. Now, let’s get to the MLB GPP plays!
STARTING PITCHERS
Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals – You could argue that (when healthy) Stephen Strasburg has been the best pitcher in baseball this season. The Washington Nationals ace owns a 15-2 record, along with a measly .202 BAA and an outstanding 30.9% strikeout rate. The Atlanta Braves may not strike out a ton, but they are the worst offense in baseball, sitting dead last in both wOBA and wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Considering how dominant Strasburg has been, and the matchup, he is easily the top pitching option on the board this evening. With his high salary, I think we see him heavily under-owned in large field tournaments.
Jon Gray, Colorado Rockies – Prior to his last start, Jon Gray was in a groove. Ignoring his most recent outing, Gray had only allowed four earned runs in his last 32.1 innings pitched, while racking up 33 punch-outs. That impressive stretch shows you the kind of upside Gray has, as does his 25% strikeout rate in 2016. The Philadelphia Phillies are almost as bad as the Atlanta Braves, sitting 29th overall versus right-handed pitching. Unlike the Braves, the Phillies strike out at an above average clip. Gray may not be cash game worthy tonight, but I do love his potential in GPPs.
Joe Musgrove, Houston Astros – If you are looking for a value arm with big potential, Joe Musgrove deserves a look. The former first round pick was outstanding in the minors this season, sporting an 87/10 K/BB rate in 85 innings pitched. The Toronto Blue Jays are by no means an easy offense to face, but they are a little banged up and Musgrove handled them with ease earlier this year, throwing 4.1 shutout innings while striking out eight batters. This is certainly a boom-or-bust option, but with his upside and price, Musgrove is worth the roll of the dice in tournament play.
Other Pitchers to Target – David Price, Yu Darvish, Chris Archer, Carlos Carrasco
CATCHER
Jonathan Lucroy, Texas Rangers – Anibal Sanchez has looked much better recently, but this is still a pitcher we want to attack this evening. The Texas Rangers have a potent offense and they happen to play in a very hitter-friendly ballpark. Right-handed batters have crushed Sanchez this season (.372 wOBA, 32.0% hard-hit rate), and home runs continue to be a major issue for the Detroit Tigers veteran (19 HRs allowed in just over 100 IP). Look for Lucroy to go yard tonight.
Travis d’Arnaud, New York Mets – Paul Clemens is not a good pitcher, as evident by his career 5.31 ERA. The veteran right-hander has been hammered by righties (36.3% hard-hit rate) throughout his time in the Major Leagues and we can expect more of the same tonight. d’Arnaud is my top punt option at catcher this evening.
Other Catchers to Target – Brian McCann, Wilson Ramos, Yasmani Grandal, Evan Gattis
FIRST BASE
Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds – It is the same old story with slippin’ Jimmy Nelson. Left-handed batters have given him fits throughout his career (.358 wOBA) and that trend has continued this season (38.3% hard-hit rate). Look for the Cincinnati Reds’ hitting machine known as Joey Votto, to roll out another multi-hit game this evening.
David Ortiz and Hanley Ramirez, Boston Red Sox – Since the beginning of May, Patrick Corbin has posted an ERA above 5.00 in every single month. The Arizona Diamondbacks southpaw has been hit hard by lefties (.367 wOBA, 42.5% hard-hit rate) and righties (.363 wOBA, 38.8% hard-hit rate) alike this season and I expect more of the same tonight. Assuming both make the lineup, simply pick your poison.
Other First Basemen to Target – Edwin Encarnacion, Paul Goldschmidt, Adrian Gonzalez, James Loney
SECOND BASE
Logan Forsythe, Tampa Bay Rays – The Rays’ leadoff hitter has been hot at the dish, with nine hits in his last five games, including three homers. CC Sabathia has been awful recently. The veteran lefty was on a nice little roll earlier in the year, but he has been a disaster since late June. In his last three outings alone, Sabathia has surrendered 10 earned runs and six long-balls. Adding fuel to the fire, Forsythe has smashed Sabathia in a decent sample size (8-18, .444 BA with four doubles and two homers).
Daniel Murphy, Washington Nationals – Murphy is another player that rarely gets the attention he deserves. The Washington Nationals’ two-bagger rakes versus right-handed pitching (.359 wOBA) and he is in a great spot to produce this evening. Hitters from the left side of the plate continue to wreak havoc on Atlanta Braves right-hander Mike Foltynewicz (career .395 wOBA). Murphy has been a multi-hit machine in 2016 and I think we see another multi-hit performance tonight.
Other Second Basemen to Target – Jose Altuve, Neil Walker, Rougned Odor, Dustin Pedroia
THIRD BASE
Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies – The injury to Aaron Nola has opened the door for the Philadelphia Phillies’ top prospect Jake Thompson. The 22-year-old right-hander is more known for his control than his strikeout upside, and he was not good in his debut against the San Diego Padres (4.1 IP, 6 ER, 1 K). It will likely take some time before Thompson figures things out at the Major League level, and in the meantime, this is a pitcher we want to pick on. Despite being one of the best hitters in baseball, Arenado tends to fly under the radar away from Coors Field.
Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays – Going back to June 22nd, CC Sabathia has allowed 39 earned runs and 11 home runs in just over 52 innings pitched. It is once again time to attack him with right-handed batters. Making matters worse for Sabathia, Longoria has owned him throughout his career (.388 BA in 67 ABs with nine doubles and six bombs).
Other Third Basemen to Target – Adrian Beltre, Josh Donaldson, Manny Machado, Justin Turner, Alex Bregman, Alex Rodriguez
SHORTSTOP
Carlos Correa, Houston Astros – Correa is swinging a hot stick these days. The Astros’ young phenom is riding a seven-game hit streak, including three consecutive multi-hit efforts. Francisco Liriano is capable of imploding, especially in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. Correa has hammered left-handed pitching in 2016 (42.5% hard-hit rate) and he has the most upside tonight at this weak position.
Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox – Not only is Patrick Corbin struggling this season (5.37 ERA, .294 BAA), but he also has to face the best offense in baseball in one the best hitting environments on the planet. Hitting in the middle of a potent Boston Red Sox offense, Bogaerts has monster game potential tonight.
Other Shortstops to Target – Corey Seager, Manny Machado (where eligible) Marcus Semien, Orlando Arcia
OUTFIELDERS
Texas Rangers Outfield – The entire Texas Rangers outfield is in play tonight against the very hittable Anibal Sanchez (.391 wOBA on the road) and that weak Detroit Tigers bullpen.
Carlos Gonzalez (DTD), Charlie Blackmon and David Dahl, Colorado Rockies – The Rockies’ offense does not get a lot of attention on the road, but in a plus matchup and ballpark, they are certainly worthy tonight. All three of Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon and David Dahl have big game upside.
Nelson Cruz and Franklin Gutierrez, Seattle Mariners – Do not sleep on Nelson Cruz and Franklin Gutierrez tonight. Oakland A’s lefty Sean Manaea has been very inconsistent in his rookie season and right-handed hitters have had plenty of success against him (.357 wOBA, 34.4% hard-hit rate, 14 HRs allowed in just over 77 IP). Both Cruz and Gutierrez have double-dong potential in this one.
New York Mets Outfield – Right-handed hitters are not the only ones abusing Paul Clemens, lefties have also had some fun against him over the years (36.4% hard-hit rate). All three of Jay Bruce, Curtis Granderson and Michael Conforto should have success against this Gas Can tonight.
Other Outfielders to Target – Mike Trout, George Springer, Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, Billy Hamilton, Josh Reddick, Rajai Davis, Steven Souza