MLB GPP Plays: Friday, June 10th
Every Tuesday and Friday I am going to give you my top tournament plays for all Daily Fantasy Baseball GPPs (guaranteed prize pool). GPPs are a general term used across the industry for your big money tournaments.
GPPs are very different from your cash games and you use a different strategy with them. In our GPPs we are not interested in safe plays, since GPPs are all about UPSIDE. We want players who can explode, as all-or-nothing type players can become GPP gold, and your value players are just as important as your star players. You need your players to have huge nights in order to take down these big tournaments.
My goal is to provide players who will be under-owned and have that big game upside you are looking for. I will also try to find as much value as I possibly can. Now, let’s get to the MLB GPP plays!
STARTING PITCHERS
Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals – Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in the game, but with a tough matchup against the San Francisco Giants and Johnny Cueto, and a game in Coors Field tonight, I think I prefer Stephen Strasburg tonight in tournaments. Strasburg has been a fantasy beast this season with a 9-0 record and 100 strikeouts in 79 innings pitched. The Philadelphia Phillies have one of the worst offenses in baseball and I think we see Strasburg mow them down with ease tonight. Strasburg has massive potential in this matchup and I think he is the highest scoring pitcher on the night.
Jason Hammel, Chicago Cubs – Hammel has been tremendous this season for the Chicago Cubs, posting a .200 BAA, along with solid strikeout and groundball rates. The Atlanta Braves have the worst offense in baseball against right-handed pitching, sporting an embarrassing .275 wOBA along with a 69 wRC+. He may not give you double-digit strikeouts in this matchup, but he will pitch deep into the game and cruise to an easy victory. Hammel provides a solid floor with a decent ceiling tonight in tournament play.
Matt Harvey, New York Mets – Is Matt Harvey back? The Dark Knight has certainly looked better in his last two starts, generating more velocity and softer contact. A matchup versus the K-happy Brewers makes him even more appealing tonight for GPPs. The Milwaukee Brewers are a league average offense versus right-handed pitching, but strikeout at a 26.0% clip, which is the most in Major League Baseball. I still don’t trust Harvey 100%, but if these gains are real, now is a great time to jump on the bandwagon.
Lance McCullers, Houston Astros – McCullers has very quietly gone about his business this year, keeping both lefties and righties in check, while striking out over 29% of the batters he has faced. We know the Tampa Bay Rays are a potent team against southpaws, but they are actually a below average offense when it comes to facing right-handed pitching. The Rays are also an undisciplined team, sporting a league average walk rate (8.5%), along with the third-highest strikeout rate in Major League Baseball (25.1%). I would imagine we see a left-handed heavy lineup from Tampa Bay tonight, which should not phase the Astros’ young righty, as he is striking out lefties at a 33.9% clip on the season. All signs point to a big game from McCullers tonight.
Other Pitchers to Target – Chris Sale, Steven Wright, Patrick Corbin
CATCHER
Brian McCann, New York Yankees – I love rostering McCann when I get him at home against a right-handed pitcher. I love him even more when the pitcher is Mike Pelfrey. Left-handed hitters have pounded Pelfrey in 2016 (.384 wOBA and a 36% hard-hit rate), and McCann has smashed him throughout his career (20-43, .465 BA with 10 extra-base hits).
Stephen Vogt, Oakland A’s – It took a while for Vogt to get going this season, but he is seeing the ball very well right now. The Oakland A’s catcher has registered at least one hit in 14 of his last 17 games and he is firmly planted in the middle of the Athletics’ lineup. Tonight the A’s face Anthony DeSclafani, who is finally ready to make his 2016 debut after suffering an oblique injury in spring training. The 26-year-old was decent last season for the Cincinnati Reds, but he still struggled with left-handed batters. Vogt should be able to rip off a couple hits tonight against DeSclafani and that awful Reds bullpen.
Other Catchers to Target – Victor Martinez (where eligible), Welington Castillo, Miguel Montero, Chris Iannetta
FIRST BASE
Paul Goldschmidt, Arizona Diamondbacks – Justin Nicolino has only 18 strikeouts in 45.1 innings pitched and I just do not know how he is getting right-handed hitters out. We have to assume this will not last. The Miami Marlins’ lefty has allowed a .338 wOBA along with a 40% hard-hit rate against hitters from the right side of the plate this season. At some point, he is going to get blown up big time and I think it happens tonight in Chase Field. Goldschmidt is my top bat outside of Coors Field and even though he will be popular, that is no reason to fade him.
Anthony Rizzo, Chicago Cubs – Bud Norris is back in the Atlanta Braves’ starting rotation, but that may not last long. The 31-year-old California native Norris has been a disaster against left-handed hitters this season, allowing a .411 wOBA to lefties in 2016, and it appears he is in for a long night. Look for Rizzo and the Cubs lefties to have a big night.
Other First Basemen to Target – Miguel Cabrera, David Ortiz, Edwin Encarnacion, Chris Davis
SECOND BASE
Daniel Murphy, Washington Nationals – Daniel Murphy has absolutely feasted on right-handed pitching this season, posting an incredible .391 BA and a .466 wOBA. Despite these sick numbers, Murphy is rarely popular in large field tournaments. Jeremy Hellickson has looked very good in 2016, easily exceeding expectations thus far. Despite the great start, left-handed hitters have still had a lot of success against him (.369 wOBA). Murphy is locked in right now and I expect another big game from him tonight.
Ian Kinsler, Detroit Tigers – Kinsler comes into this game firing on all cylinders. The Tigers’ two-bagger has registered five multi-hit games in his last eight contests. CC Sabathia has been excellent this season, but I am just not buying it, especially when it comes to him shutting down right-handed batters. Hitters from the right side of the plate have abused Sabathia for years and I think it is just a matter of time before they start lighting him up again. Kinsler is a notorious lefty-killer and I see a multi-hit game in his future.
Other Second Basemen to Target – Ben Zobrist, Rougned Odor, Neil Walker, Jean Segura, Starlin Castro
THIRD BASE
Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies – If I could only play one bat in Coors Field this evening, it would be Nolan Arenado. Andrew Cashner has really struggled against right-handed batters this season (.405 wOBA) and Arenado is a monster in Coors Field.
Josh Donaldson, Toronto Blue Jays – With everyone focused on Nolan Arenado, Josh Donaldson should fly under the radar tonight. The reigning American League M.V.P. is starting to heat up offensively with four hits in his last two games, and three of those hits going for extra bases. With a neutral matchup in a hitter-friendly ballpark, Donaldson still carries double-dong potential.
Other Third Basemen to Target – Josh Donaldson, Kris Bryant, Alex Rodriguez, Danny Valencia, Travis Shaw
SHORTSTOP
Trevor Story, Colorado Rockies – I expect the Colorado Rockies to be heavily targeted in GPPs tonight, but if Story is batting seventh in the order, he will likely get over-looked. Story has the highest upside at this weak position and I hope he hits low in the order so I can get him low percentage owned.
If you are looking for salary relief at shortstop tonight, we have a few solid options. Javier Baez has home run upside at a moderate-low price. Both Danny Espinosa and Stephen Drew (site dependant) have solid power and make great value plays versus Jeremy Hellickson. I am not a big fan of Didi Gregorius in general, but he is a cheap and he does have multi-hit upside against whipping boy Mike Pelfrey.
Other Shortstops to Target – Manny Machado, Carlos Correa (DTD), Xander Bogaerts, Francisco Lindor
OUTFIELDERS
Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates – Michael Wacha is not a pitcher I want to stack against, nor do I usually want to pick on him at all, but he has been awful of late. In his last 29 innings pitched, Wacha has given up a whopping 40 hits and an absurd 27 earned runs. Because of the perceived poor matchup, I expect many fantasy owners to fade McCutchen tonight, which should lead to very low ownership. Making this play even more interesting, the former National League M.V.P. has absolutely owned Wacha in his career (.545 BA in 22 ABs). Paying up for McCutchen is certainly contrarian and it could really pay off.
New York Yankees Outfield – Due to his lack of strikeouts, Mike Pelfrey is about as hittable as they come. The Tigers’ right-hander owns a 4.76 ERA and 3.28 BAA. I spoke earlier about Pelfrey getting smacked around by hitters from the left side of the plate (.384 wOBA and a 36% hard hit rate) and I expect that trend to continue tonight in Yankee Stadium. This Yankees trio makes a great mini-stack in GPPs tonight.
Adam Duvall, Cincinnati Reds – Sonny Gray has not been his dominant self in 2016 and right-handed batters have really taken advantage of him (.403 wOBA and 40% hard-hit rate). Adam Duvall is swinging a hot stick and he has shown off his massive power recently, generating six home runs in his last nine contests. Duvall has handled right-handed pitching just fine this season (.387 wOBA), and he is another power bat that will be highly under-owned in tournament play.
Arizona Diamondbacks Outfield – All three of Yasmany Tomas, Rickie Weeks Jr. and Brandon Drury provide a cheap source of power tonight. Justin Nicolino’s magic is about to run out, putting the entire D-backs outfield in play this evening.
Other Outfielders to Target – Coors Field, Bryce Harper, Mark Trumbo, Giancarlo Stanton, Nelson Cruz, Jason Heyward, Michael Conforto, Khris Davis