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MLB Grind Down: Monday, August 29th - Page Three

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-08-30 00:15:47

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NY Yankees at Kansas City – 8:15 PM ET

NY Yankees Kansas City
nyyankeesmlb Michael Pineda kansascitymlb Dillon Gee
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY -124 8.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.330 17 31.4% 24.9% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.385 11 33.5% 14.8%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.329 26 31.4% 24.6% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.327 13 28.3% 19.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Michael Pineda
michael-pineda-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,500 Salary: $7,100
FPPG: 29.6 FPPG: 15.5
Pitcher Rating: 77.6 Pitcher Rank: 3
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 86.0 4.00 5.08 21.0% 7.6% 12.8% 53.6% 29.8% 35.7%
2016 25 95.5 3.47 5.02 26.3% 6.6% 13.9% 46.0% 32.6% 32.9%
2015 27 94.4 3.09 4.37 23.4% 3.1% 11.9% 48.2% 29.9% 30.1%

Pineda has been a money pit this season. His numbers continue to suggest that the results will eventually come, but he continues to give up a lot of runs. He has a full 1.5 run difference between his SIERA and his ERA on the year. I’m close to jumping ship, but will give him one last shot tonight against the Royals. He sees a massive ballpark boost here and he gets to face one of the worst offenses in all of baseball. On the season, Kansas City is ranked 27th in team wOBA and 30th in team K% against right-handed pitching. They also average very few pitches per plate appearance. This could finally be the time when Pineda awaits the patience of those who have been targeting him all season.

Dillon Gee
dillon-gee-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,800 Salary: $4,200
FPPG: 17.2 FPPG: 8.2
Pitcher Rating: 46.9 Pitcher Rank: 22
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 92.6 4.15 4.55 19.2% 5.4% 9.9% 46.3% 37.9% 30.9%
2016 11 90.7 4.32 4.55 18.3% 6.9% 9.4% 43.2% 36.9% 29.7%
2015 7 88.0 4.41 5.90 13.7% 6.0% 9.4% 51.0% 29.4% 33.6%

Gee has not pitched well this season, posting a 4.56 ERA with a strikeout rate of 18.3% in 11 starts. He doesn’t do anything particularly well and opposing offenses have had quite a bit of success against him. The Yankees have been one of the best offenses in baseball over the last month of play, ranking fifth in team wOBA. There is more risk than potential reward for Gee tonight.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The Yankees’ offense has been on fire lately, largely in part thanks to Gary Sanchez aka Barry Sanchez aka GOAT Sanchez, aka Way Better than Butt-Fumble Sanchez. He currently has a .623 wOBA against right-handed pitching with a 44.4% hard contact rate this season. The hot streak will inevitably come to an end, but why not ride it while we still can. He remains an elite play in all league formats, even at his chalky ownership levels.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.324 0.136 27.2% 0.222 OF $3,200 OF $4,000
2 Jacoby Ellsbury LEFT 0.308 0.106 24.8% 0.273 OF $3,000 OF $4,300
3 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.623 0.569 44.4% 0.724 C $4,000 C $4,700
4 Mark Teixeira SWITCH 0.343 0.259 35.9% 0.304 1B $3,000 1B $3,500
5 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.312 0.149 24.5% 0.305 SS $3,200 SS $3,900
6 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.298 0.138 26.1% 0.396 2B $3,100 2B $4,400
7 Brian McCann LEFT 0.327 0.196 33.5% 0.383 C $3,200 C $4,100
8 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.355 0.242 47.6% 0.283 OF $3,000 OF $3,700
9 Ronald Torreyes RIGHT 0.358 0.185 15.1% 0.532 2B $2,700 3B/SS $3,000
Team Averages — 0.361 0.220 31.0% 0.380 — — — —

Elite Plays – Gary Sanchez

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Mark Teixeira, Didi Gregorius

Stackability – YELLOW

Kansas City

The Royals have been one of the worst offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching this season, ranking in the bottom five in both team wOBA and team ISO. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against Michael Pineda, whose advanced stats suggest that he is a much better pitcher than his ERA does. I’m not a big fan of the Royals tonight and I will be avoiding them in all league formats.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Paulo Orlando RIGHT 0.302 0.127 31.0% 0.233 OF $2,900 OF $3,500
2 Cheslor Cuthbert RIGHT 0.308 0.145 29.9% 0.275 3B $3,100 3B $3,300
3 Lorenzo Cain RIGHT 0.317 0.117 30.2% 0.444 OF $3,000 OF $3,800
4 Eric Hosmer LEFT 0.365 0.179 35.3% 0.351 1B $3,100 1B $4,000
5 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.347 0.212 39.9% 0.286 1B $2,700 1B/OF $3,000
6 Salvador Perez RIGHT 0.321 0.190 29.7% 0.306 C $3,000 C $3,800
7 Alex Gordon LEFT 0.329 0.168 35.5% 0.488 OF $2,800 OF $4,200
8 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.275 0.067 20.8% 0.427 SS $2,200 SS $3,700
9 Raul Mondesi SWITCH 0.210 0.098 31.0% 0.257 2B $2,500 2B $2,600
Team Averages — 0.308 0.145 31.5% 0.341 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

LA Dodgers at Colorado – 8:40 PM ET

LA Dodgers Colorado
ladodgersmlb Kenta Maeda coloradomlb Jon Gray
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
LAD -122 11.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.303 9 33.5% 19.5% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.314 8 35.9% 24.8%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.258 8 25.3% 29.6% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.327 11 28.6% 24.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Kenta Maeda
kenta-maeda-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $6,500
FPPG: 30.3 FPPG: 16.1
Pitcher Rating: 51.2 Pitcher Rank: 18
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 97.8 3.81 3.86 23.9% 6.2% 11.5% 39.0% 41.6% 28.6%
2016 25 93.5 3.72 3.37 24.9% 6.8% 11.6% 43.3% 37.7% 29.2%

Maeda would be one of my favorite pitchers in the slate if this game were being played in Los Angeles. Alas, that is not the case. He has to pitch in the hitter’s paradise that is Coors Field. Even though he is a small favorite here, the over/under for the game is set at 11.0 runs. His high fly-ball rate concerns me in this ballpark. There are better pitching options to target tonight.

Jon Gray
jon-gray-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $6,800
FPPG: 31.0 FPPG: 16.3
Pitcher Rating: 47.0 Pitcher Rank: 21
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 98.0 4.03 7.83 25.7% 10.1% 10.6% 37.7% 33.3% 31.4%
2016 23 95.7 3.76 4.61 25.5% 8.2% 11.8% 44.6% 31.8% 30.5%
2015 9 75.8 3.89 5.53 21.6% 7.6% 10.1% 42.4% 32.8% 36.4%

Gray is coming off of a strong outing against the Brewers in Milwaukee, but now he has to face a red-hot Dodgers’ offense in Coors Field. Over the last month of play, only the Rockies have a higher team wOBA than the Dodgers. This is expected to be the highest scoring game of the night, which makes both pitchers easy fades in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Even though I have the Tigers ranked ahead of the Dodgers, Los Angeles has the highest run projection in the slate. They are one of the best offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching and they get to play in Coors Field. Jon Gray has done a great job of limiting hard contact this season, but Coors is the ultimate trump card. You can load up on Dodgers in all league formats.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Chase Utley LEFT 0.310 0.142 37.0% 0.345 2B $3,700 2B $4,600
2 Corey Seager LEFT 0.409 0.234 39.9% 0.483 SS $4,400 SS $5,500
3 Justin Turner RIGHT 0.387 0.238 36.3% 0.356 3B $3,900 3B $5,100
4 Adrian Gonzalez LEFT 0.364 0.213 36.2% 0.422 1B $3,600 1B $4,800
5 Yasmani Grandal SWITCH 0.340 0.224 34.8% 0.336 C $3,600 C $4,600
6 Josh Reddick LEFT 0.353 0.179 26.9% 0.183 OF $3,500 OF $4,000
7 Joc Pederson LEFT 0.357 0.233 39.0% 0.272 OF $3,500 OF $4,400
8 Howie Kendrick RIGHT 0.327 0.133 32.1% 0.321 2B $3,300 2B/OF $3,800
9 Kenta Maeda RIGHT 0.163 0.118 6.7% 0.000 P $7,500 P $6,500
Team Averages — 0.334 0.190 32.1% 0.302 — — — —

Elite Plays – Corey Seager, Justin Turner

Secondary Plays – Chase Utley, Adrian Gonzalez, Yasmani Grandal, Josh Reddick, Joc Pederson

Stackability – GREEN

Colorado

The Rockies draw a difficult matchup on paper, but they are still one of the top offenses to target in this slate. They have been red-hot at the plate (.355 team wOBA over the last month of play) and they are playing at home in Coors Field. Kenta Maeda has been tough on hitters from both sides of the plate, but he has allowed a 33.5% hard contact rate to lefties this season.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Charlie Blackmon LEFT 0.372 0.214 36.0% 0.452 OF $4,200 OF $5,500
2 DJ LeMahieu RIGHT 0.352 0.119 29.9% 0.567 2B $3,900 2B $5,200
3 Carlos Gonzalez LEFT 0.404 0.284 35.5% 0.208 OF $3,900 OF $5,100
4 Nolan Arenado RIGHT 0.386 0.303 36.3% 0.398 3B $4,100 3B $5,400
5 David Dahl LEFT 0.394 0.235 36.2% 0.359 OF $3,900 OF $4,800
6 Gerardo Parra LEFT 0.321 0.162 32.1% 0.272 OF $3,200 OF $3,100
7 Nick Hundley RIGHT 0.331 0.167 30.4% 0.372 C $3,000 C $3,700
8 Daniel Descalso LEFT 0.304 0.127 24.8% 0.236 SS $3,000 1B/SS $3,200
9 Jon Gray RIGHT 0.212 0.057 33.3% 0.634 P $7,400 P $6,800
Team Averages — 0.342 0.185 32.7% 0.389 — — — —

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez, David Dahl

Secondary Plays – Nolan Arenado, Gerardo Parra

Stackability – GREEN

Cincinnati at LA Angels – 10:05 PM ET

Cincinnati LA Angels
cincinnatimlb Dan Straily laangelsmlb Matt Shoemaker
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
LAA -148 8.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.305 10 29.3% 16.4% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.304 18 32.0% 18.9%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.279 12 33.6% 23.3% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.334 23 29.1% 22.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Dan Straily
dan-straily-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $9,100
FPPG: 28.3 FPPG: 14.8
Pitcher Rating: 53.8 Pitcher Rank: 15
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 91.2 3.84 2.45 22.4% 2.6% 11.0% 31.0% 49.4% 31.0%
2016 24 101.1 4.63 3.57 20.0% 8.6% 9.8% 32.8% 46.2% 31.9%
2015 3 97.0 4.67 5.40 18.4% 10.5% 9.6% 41.5% 37.7% 28.3%

Straily has been in solid form over the last month of play, posting a 2.45 ERA (3.84 SIERA) with a strikeout rate of 22.4%. While I haven’t been targeting him during this stretch, I have been limiting my exposure to the offenses that he has been facing. He comes into tonight’s game as a sizable underdog against the Angels, who are the toughest team to strikeout in the majors. Straily is an easy fade tonight, especially at this inflated price point.

Matt Shoemaker
matt-shoemaker-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,700 Salary: $7,200
FPPG: 30.1 FPPG: 15.8
Pitcher Rating: 60.9 Pitcher Rank: 10
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 97.2 4.80 3.27 13.4% 4.5% 10.5% 42.3% 34.6% 29.3%
2016 25 94.3 3.95 3.98 21.1% 4.7% 12.9% 38.8% 37.4% 30.5%
2015 24 87.0 3.98 4.46 20.4% 6.2% 9.1% 39.2% 42.4% 30.9%

Shoemaker’s strikeouts have disappeared over the last couple of months. At one point, his strikeout rate was up over 30% on the season. It’s not down to 21.1%, thanks to a 13.4% k-rate over his last five starts. I have a soft spot in my heart for Shoemaker, but have a hard time justifying the play tonight. The Reds have been making good contact lately and there are pitchers that provide more upside.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds have one of the lowest implied team totals on the board tonight. While I won’t be heavily targeting this offense, I do like Adam Duvall as a one-off target. He has been hitting the ball extremely hard in the last couple of weeks and Matt Shoemaker has allowed a .334 wOBA and 23 home runs to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.275 0.061 19.3% 0.313 OF $3,000 OF $3,700
2 Zack Cozart RIGHT 0.324 0.178 29.6% 0.432 SS $3,000 SS $3,300
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.423 0.241 43.3% 0.480 1B $4,000 1B $4,900
4 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.352 0.298 37.3% 0.351 OF $3,400 OF $4,300
5 Brandon Phillips RIGHT 0.317 0.113 26.9% 0.322 2B $2,600 2B $3,100
6 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.310 0.201 37.5% 0.409 OF $3,200 OF $2,900
7 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.310 0.155 32.6% 0.415 3B $3,200 3B $3,200
8 Ramon Cabrera SWITCH 0.258 0.101 21.8% 0.185 C $2,200 C $2,300
9 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.281 0.043 21.3% 0.468 SS $2,600 OF/SS $3,600
Team Averages — 0.317 0.155 30.0% 0.375 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Joey Votto, Adam Duvall

Stackability – ORANGE

LA Angels

The Angels have really struggled against right-handed pitching this season and Dan Straily comes into the game in great form. An Angels’ stack is certainly out of the equation for me, but I do like Mike Trout and Albert Pujols. Trout is a beast and Pujols has been hitting the ball very hard in the last two weeks. Add in the fact that Straily has allowed a 33.6% hard contact rate to righties and they become intriguing plays tonight.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Kole Calhoun LEFT 0.325 0.158 32.0% 0.288 OF $3,300 OF $3,300
2 Mike Trout RIGHT 0.417 0.278 41.2% 0.444 OF $4,200 OF $4,900
3 Albert Pujols RIGHT 0.326 0.202 34.8% 0.370 1B $3,600 1B $3,600
4 C.J. Cron RIGHT 0.334 0.190 30.5% 0.205 1B $2,900 1B $3,100
5 Andrelton Simmons RIGHT 0.292 0.068 24.3% 0.246 SS $2,200 SS $2,100
6 Jefry Marte RIGHT 0.282 0.156 32.3% 0.244 3B $2,600 1B/3B $2,800
7 Jett Bandy RIGHT 0.308 0.164 27.9% 0.329 C $2,500 C $2,700
8 Nick Buss RIGHT 0.332 0.225 28.1% 0.284 OF $2,200 OF $2,200
9 Kaleb Cowart SWITCH 0.301 0.180 28.1% 0.395 3B $2,500 3B $2,300
Team Averages — 0.324 0.180 31.0% 0.312 — — — —

Elite Plays – Mike Trout

Secondary Plays – Albert Pujols

Stackability – ORANGE

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious