MLB Grind Down: Monday, August 29th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-08-30 01:16:15

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

Toronto at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%
Toronto					Baltimore
			Marco Estrada					Wade Miley
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR -133					10.0
SP vs. Left (2015-16)	0.275	24	28.3%	19.6%	SP vs. Left (2015-16)	0.297	6	27.6%	18.9%
SP vs. Right (2015-16)	0.283	20	31.6%	20.6%	SP vs. Right (2015-16)	0.346	33	28.0%	17.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Marco Estrada
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,900	Salary:		$6,600
					FPPG:		32.6	FPPG:		17.8
					Pitcher Rating:		51.3	Pitcher Rank:		17
L30 Days	5	92.6	4.32	5.67	20.5%	7.4%	11.7%	40.7%	40.7%	35.6%
2016	22	98.7	4.31	3.47	22.6%	8.7%	10.8%	35.4%	46.5%	33.3%
2015	28	104.0	4.64	3.13	18.1%	7.6%	9.9%	32.2%	52.3%	27.4%

I’ve been hinting that regression could be looming for Estrada all season and we are finally start to see it come to fruition. In his last five starts, he has a 5.67 ERA with a strikeout rate of 20.5%. It’s always a red flag for me when a pitcher has such a big discrepancy between his ERA and his ERA estimators and it generally leads to an inflated price tag as well. Tonight he squares off against the Orioles in Camden Yards. While Estrada does have a nice track record against Baltimore, they hit too many home runs for me to give him a serious look. This game has one of the highest over/unders in the slate.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Wade Miley
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,200	Salary:		$4,600
					FPPG:		23.1	FPPG:		10.8
					Pitcher Rating:		49.4	Pitcher Rank:		20
L30 Days	6	84.3	3.68	6.52	21.5%	5.4%	8.7%	50.0%	25.6%	34.4%
2016	24	91.2	4.46	5.51	17.5%	6.9%	8.7%	46.8%	31.6%	32.6%
2015	32	99.8	4.24	4.46	17.7%	7.7%	8.3%	48.8%	30.5%	24.7%

Miley is always one of our favorite pitchers to pick on. In 24 starts this season, he has a 5.51 ERA (4.46 SIERA) with a strikeout rate of only 17.5%. He gives up a lot of hard contact and he is pitching in a park built for right-handed power hitters. He is a small underdog tonight against the Blue Jays, who are ranked fifth in team wOBA and sixth in team ISO against southpaws this season. There are a million reasons why you shouldn’t play Miley tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays’ offense is one of the best in baseball against left-handed pitching and that’s after a very slow start to the season. They come into tonight’s game with one of the highest run projections in the slate. They draw a favorable matchup against Wade Miley, who has allowed a .346 wOBA and 33 home runs to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons combined. The Blue Jays would typically be the chalk in this situation, but with so many great offenses to target tonight, ownership should be evenly spread out when it comes to stacks.

Blue Jays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.335 (5 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.325 (14 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.178 (6 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 19.5% (7 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.87 (14 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.89 (6 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.19 (4 of 26)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	HC% vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.348	0.215	36.1%	0.316	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,800
2	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.426	0.295	40.7%	0.371	3B	$4,400	3B	$5,200
3	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.368	0.254	38.3%	0.422	1B	$4,200	1B	$5,000
4	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.365	0.197	37.3%	0.553	C	$3,400	C	$4,500
5	Troy Tulowitzki	RIGHT	0.370	0.188	40.8%	0.380	SS	$3,200	SS	$4,200
6	Michael Saunders	LEFT	0.409	0.308	31.9%	0.290	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,600
7	Melvin Upton	RIGHT	0.371	0.235	31.9%	0.391	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,600
8	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.312	0.109	29.3%	0.265	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,800
9	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.330	0.165	27.7%	0.285	2B	$3,500	2B	$4,500
	Team Averages	—	0.367	0.218	34.9%	0.364	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Russell Martin, Troy Tulowitzki

Secondary Plays – Melvin Upton

Stackability – GREEN

Baltimore

The Orioles haven’t been great at the plate recently, but they do have the highest ISO of any ball club against right-handed pitching this season. That bodes well for their matchup tonight against Marco Estrada, who is an extreme fly-ball pitcher. The one concern here is that the Orioles haven’t fared well against Estrada in the past, but they do have nine home runs off of him in 154 at bats. I’m not as high on the Orioles as I am the Blue Jays, but I’m certainly not going to talk you off of them tonight at home.

Orioles Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.341 (2 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.322 (17 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.203 (1 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.8% (21 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.84 (20 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.73 (8 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.81 (8 of 26)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	HC% vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.346	0.208	31.7%	0.272	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,500
2	Hyun-Soo Kim	LEFT	0.382	0.123	31.6%	0.379	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,900
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.385	0.253	35.1%	0.402	3B	$4,100	3B/SS	$5,000
4	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.350	0.228	34.7%	0.434	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,900
5	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.386	0.316	43.5%	0.480	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,700
6	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.354	0.220	32.5%	0.325	2B	$3,200	2B	$4,200
7	Pedro Alvarez	LEFT	0.347	0.252	39.0%	0.325	3B	$3,300	1B	$3,800
8	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.316	0.161	31.3%	0.373	C	$2,900	C	$4,000
9	J.J. Hardy	RIGHT	0.277	0.121	28.4%	0.257	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,100
	Team Averages	—	0.349	0.209	34.2%	0.361	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Manny Machado

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo, Chris Davis

Stackability – YELLOW

Washington at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%
Washington					Philadelphia
			Tanner Roark					Jake Thompson
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			WAS -200					9.0
SP vs. Left (2015-16)	0.315	15	31.3%	16.6%	SP vs. Left (2015-16)	0.426	3	39.5%	12.5%
SP vs. Right (2015-16)	0.299	16	20.2%	18.7%	SP vs. Right (2015-16)	0.389	2	42.9%	16.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Tanner Roark
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,500	Salary:		$8,600
					FPPG:		33.1	FPPG:		17.0
					Pitcher Rating:		65.5	Pitcher Rank:		7
L30 Days	5	104.2	5.16	3.13	15.7%	9.7%	6.7%	43.8%	37.5%	30.2%
2016	26	103.3	4.29	2.99	19.5%	7.9%	8.4%	49.4%	30.5%	24.7%
2015	12	150.0	4.16	4.38	15.0%	5.6%	7.1%	47.8%	30.6%	26.3%

Roark is another pitcher that I have been avoiding due to potential regression. His ERA is nearly a run and a half lower than his SIERA this season, which is a red flag. He comes into the game in bad form, posting a 5.16 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15.7% in his last five starts. He is overpriced given his recent dip in strikeouts and yet, people are still going to be targeting him tonight against the Phillies. I’m on team ‘Fade Roark,’ even though he is one of the largest favorites in the slate.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Jake Thompson
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$4,000
					FPPG:		11.5	FPPG:		2.5
					Pitcher Rating:		31.8	Pitcher Rank:		26
L30 Days	4	91.3	5.92	9.78	14.0%	14.0%	7.7%	47.6%	34.9%	40.9%
2016	4	91.3	5.92	9.78	14.0%	14.0%	7.7%	47.6%	34.9%	40.9%

Thompson didn’t show a lot of strikeout potential in the minors and so far that hasn’t changed in the majors. In his first four career starts, he has a 9.78 ERA (5.92 SIERA) with a strikeout rate of 14% and a walk rate of 14%. He has been a great pitcher to stack against, allowing a hard contact rate of 40.9%. He comes into tonight’s contest as one of the largest underdogs in the slate. Until he flashes some better form at this level, Thompson should be avoided in all league formats.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

The Nationals’ offense was a disappointment over the weekend, but they should bounce back nicely tonight against Jake Thompson and the Phillies. The sample size is small (four starts), but Thompson has allowed a lot of hard contact to hitters from both sides of the plate. He has also given up five home runs, three to left-handed hitters and two to right-handed hitters. You can stack the Nationals in both cash games and tournaments tonight.

Nationals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.322 (11 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.342 (4 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.170 (12 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.3% (6 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.88 (12 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.87 (7 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.08 (5 of 26)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	HC% vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.371	0.213	33.9%	0.385	OF	$4,000	2B/OF	$4,900
2	Jayson Werth	RIGHT	0.299	0.144	34.6%	0.364	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,100
3	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.381	0.234	36.0%	0.425	2B	$4,300	2B	$5,400
4	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.433	0.294	36.8%	0.476	OF	$4,300	OF	$5,300
5	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.331	0.158	37.0%	0.421	3B	$3,600	3B	$4,600
6	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.286	0.159	32.8%	0.238	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,500
7	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.308	0.146	30.6%	0.199	C	$3,300	C	$3,900
8	Danny Espinosa	SWITCH	0.306	0.160	30.3%	0.312	SS	$3,400	SS	$3,800
9	Tanner Roark	RIGHT	0.149	0.033	8.7%	0.138	P	$8,500	P	$8,600
	Team Averages	—	0.318	0.171	31.2%	0.329	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Daniel Murphy, Bryce Harper

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rendon, Wilson Ramos

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Philadelphia

The Phillies have struggled against right-handed pitching this season, but they draw a decent matchup against Tanner Roark. His command has been off in his last few starts, which has led to a higher walk rate and a lower strikeout rate. There isn’t a lot to like from the Phillies’ side tonight, but Roark has allowed a .315 wOBA and a 31.3% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters in the last two seasons. Ryan Howard makes an intriguing one-off in tournaments.

Phillies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.298 (28 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.309 (23 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.161 (17 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.9% (22 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.77 (28 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.75 (29 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.92 (20 of 26)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	HC% vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.310	0.106	26.2%	0.475	2B	$3,000	2B	$4,200
2	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.348	0.147	29.8%	0.304	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,200
3	Aaron Altherr	RIGHT	0.347	0.218	33.6%	0.254	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,900
4	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.322	0.185	27.9%	0.322	3B	$2,700	3B	$3,700
5	Ryan Howard	LEFT	0.324	0.247	42.7%	0.291	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,400
6	Cameron Rupp	RIGHT	0.295	0.148	29.5%	0.249	C	$2,600	C	$3,300
7	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.291	0.135	28.2%	0.353	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,800
8	Peter Bourjos	RIGHT	0.276	0.143	22.5%	0.262	OF	$2,600	OF	$2,800
9	Jake Thompson	RIGHT	0.219	0.000	25.0%	0.000	P	$5,500	P	$4,000
	Team Averages	—	0.304	0.148	29.5%	0.279	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Ryan Howard

Stackability – RED

Chicago White Sox at Detroit – 7:08 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%
Chicago White Sox					Detroit
			James Shields					Matt Boyd
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			DET -185					10.0
SP vs. Left (2015-16)	0.377	35	31.3%	17.6%	SP vs. Left (2015-16)	0.377	8	31.7%	14.8%
SP vs. Right (2015-16)	0.334	29	34.5%	24.0%	SP vs. Right (2015-16)	0.348	22	33.1%	20.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
James Shields
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,900	Salary:		$4,000
					FPPG:		19.0	FPPG:		8.0
					Pitcher Rating:		37.9	Pitcher Rank:		24
L30 Days	5	84.0	5.87	13.95	9.9%	7.2%	6.9%	33.0%	45.5%	43.2%
2016	26	93.9	5.22	5.98	15.0%	9.3%	8.6%	40.5%	37.8%	34.7%
2015	33	101.1	3.72	3.91	25.1%	9.4%	12.4%	44.9%	34.4%	31.2%

Something has to give in this matchup. Shields hasn’t been able to get anyone out this season and the Tigers haven’t been able to capitalize on favorable matchups (which has led to a lot of DFS tilt). While anything can happen in baseball, I’m more inclined to trust the Tigers than I am Shields. In his last five starts, he has a 13.95 ERA (5.87 SIERA) with a strikeout rate under 10%. He is allowing a ridiculous amount of hard contact lately and his high fly-ball rate is compounding the problem.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Matt Boyd
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$6,700
					FPPG:		25.1	FPPG:		12.9
					Pitcher Rating:		56.2	Pitcher Rank:		12
L30 Days	5	105.6	4.43	3.00	21.7%	8.3%	10.2%	36.9%	52.4%	31.0%
2016	13	98.9	4.35	3.98	20.5%	7.7%	8.9%	39.9%	43.6%	31.7%
2015	12	83.6	4.83	7.53	17.1%	7.9%	8.2%	31.9%	51.9%	34.0%

If Boyd makes it out of the fifth inning, he should walk away with a win. There isn’t another offense on the board that I feel more comfortable with when it comes to run support. Boyd hasn’t been great this season, but he does have a strikeout rate above 20%. He draws a mediocre matchup against the White Sox, who are ranked right around the major league average in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against left-handed pitching this season. Boyd is cheap and has a good chance at picking up the win, but I wouldn’t consider him a cash game option in this slate.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox offense has struggled all season, but they have been better over the last month of play. They are going to get overlooked tonight, as everyone is going to be targeting the other offense in this game. Chicago draws an exploitable matchup against Matt Boyd, who has allowed a .348 wOBA, 22 home runs, and a hard contact rate of 33.1% to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons.

White Sox Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.325 (13 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.323 (15 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.163 (16 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 22.0% (17 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.83 (18 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.08 (25 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.51 (12 of 26)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	HC% vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Adam Eaton	LEFT	0.305	0.062	23.8%	0.363	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,900
2	Tim Anderson	RIGHT	0.383	0.185	37.5%	0.427	SS	$2,600	SS	$4,000
3	Melky Cabrera	SWITCH	0.297	0.123	27.3%	0.274	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,700
4	Jose Abreu	RIGHT	0.287	0.142	35.6%	0.441	1B	$3,500	1B	$3,900
5	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.363	0.332	36.7%	0.309	3B	$3,900	3B	$4,300
6	Justin Morneau	LEFT	0.360	0.177	26.0%	0.291	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,000
7	Avisail Garcia	RIGHT	0.330	0.145	33.8%	0.486	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,600
8	Alex Avila	LEFT	0.275	0.100	17.4%	0.675	C	$2,300	C	$2,900
9	Tyler Saladino	RIGHT	0.304	0.120	20.8%	0.364	SS	$3,000	2B/SS	$3,500
	Team Averages	—	0.323	0.154	28.8%	0.403	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu, Todd Frazier

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Detroit

The Tigers would have the highest run projection in the slate if there weren’t a game in Coors Field tonight. They easily have the best matchup, as they get to face James “I’m allergic to outs” Shields. In addition to the fly balls and the hard contact, Shields has allowed a .391 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .371 wOBA to right-handed hitters this season. The Tigers must be played tonight and they must be stacked.

Tigers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.328 (8 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.333 (10 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.171 (10 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.4% (19 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.87 (15 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.67 (9 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.49 (2 of 26)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	HC% vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.330	0.149	29.3%	0.199	2B	$3,800	2B	$4,400
2	Cameron Maybin	RIGHT	0.320	0.092	21.6%	0.462	OF	$2,800	OF	$4,400
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.402	0.221	40.0%	0.369	1B	$3,900	1B	$5,400
4	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.314	0.163	36.0%	0.417	C	$3,600	1B	$4,500
5	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.378	0.245	40.4%	0.507	OF	$3,700	OF	$5,100
6	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.336	0.202	36.2%	0.392	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,400
7	Casey McGehee	RIGHT	0.220	0.065	21.8%	0.213	3B	$2,200	3B	$2,700
8	James McCann	RIGHT	0.255	0.083	25.6%	0.398	C	$2,700	C	$3,500
9	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.278	0.052	14.5%	0.230	SS	$2,300	SS	$2,400
	Team Averages	—	0.315	0.141	29.5%	0.354	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Cameron Maybin, Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, J.D. Martinez, Justin Upton

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler

Stackability – GREEN

Miami at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%
Miami					NY Mets
			Jose Fernandez					Rafael Montero
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIA -155					7.0
SP vs. Left (2015-16)	0.319	9	34.3%	26.5%	SP vs. Left (2015-16)	0.561	0	45.5%	16.7%
SP vs. Right (2015-16)	0.228	6	26.6%	40.8%	SP vs. Right (2015-16)	0.200	0	28.0%	32.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Jose Fernandez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$11,000	Salary:		$12,700
					FPPG:		43.9	FPPG:		24.6
					Pitcher Rating:		94.9	Pitcher Rank:		1
L30 Days	4	96.3	3.20	3.52	28.4%	6.9%	16.1%	43.8%	21.9%	30.8%
2016	24	99.8	2.69	2.91	35.4%	7.3%	15.0%	41.4%	29.0%	31.5%
2015	11	90.2	2.77	2.92	29.8%	5.3%	13.3%	40.1%	31.1%	29.4%

Fernandez pitched out of some jams in his last start, finishing with nine strikeouts in seven shutout innings of work. While he is pitching on the road tonight, he should still be considered the premier pitcher in the slate. The Mets’ offense is getting some of their key pieces back, but they are still an exploitable matchup. They have the ninth highest team strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Fernandez can afford to be aggressive (I suppose he’s always aggressive) in this ballpark, which doesn’t yield a lot of runs historically.

Statistics	K%	SS%	GB%	HC%
Rafael Montero
	FanDuel		DraftKings
	Salary:		Salary:	$4,000
	FPPG:		FPPG:	0.8
	Pitcher Rating:	54.1	Pitcher Rank:	14

2016	0	0.0	3.45	11.57	25.0%	8.3%	2.1%	37.5%	25.0%	62.5%
2015	1	92.0	3.38	4.50	28.3%	10.9%	9.9%	48.1%	33.3%	25.0%

Montero will be making a spot start for Jacob deGrom, who will be skipped in the rotation one time. Montero has made 17 career major league appearances, posting a 4.45 ERA with a strikeout rate of 23%. While these spot starts can provide value opportunities every now and then, Montero has been in bad form in the minors. In his last 16 Triple-A starts, he has a 7.20 ERA with a strikeout rate of only 17.7%. As a large underdog at home, Montero should be avoided in all league formats tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Even though the Marlins are sizable favorites tonight, they still have the fifth lowest run projection in the slate. That says more about the other offenses than it does the Marlins, as they draw an exploitable matchup against Rafael Montero. There is a good chance that I won’t end up with any Marlins’ hitters tonight, but I do expect them to give Jose Fernandez some run support. In his 17 major league appearances, Montero has allowed a .423 wOBA to left-handed hitters.

Marlins Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.315 (15 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.306 (25 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.132 (28 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.9% (5 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.82 (24 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.19 (22 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.82 (22 of 26)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	HC% vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Dee Gordon	LEFT	0.318	0.073	18.0%	0.222	2B	$2,900	2B	$4,600
2	Martin Prado	RIGHT	0.308	0.098	25.0%	0.338	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,500
3	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.376	0.175	38.9%	0.316	OF	$3,800	OF	$5,000
4	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.302	0.142	34.6%	0.280	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,000
5	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.317	0.122	29.6%	0.306	C	$3,000	C	$4,100
6	Ichiro Suzuki	LEFT	0.264	0.045	17.7%	0.228	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,400
7	Xavier Scruggs	RIGHT	0.295	0.074	23.3%	0.300	1B	$2,000	1B	$2,600
8	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.273	0.078	27.0%	0.288	SS	$2,300	SS	$2,700
9	Jose Fernandez	RIGHT	0.261	0.089	14.0%	0.585	P	$11,000	P	$12,700
	Team Averages	—	0.302	0.100	25.3%	0.318	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Mets

The Mets have the most difficult matchup on the board tonight. In addition to an elite strikeout rate, Jose Fernandez has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 wOBA this season. With the second lowest implied team total in the slate, the Mets can be avoided in both cash games and GPPs.

Mets Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.306 (24 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.319 (18 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.169 (13 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.9% (22 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.91 (8 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.94 (28 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.18 (25 of 26)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	HC% vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jose Reyes	SWITCH	0.297	0.105	20.5%	0.408	3B	$3,000	3B/SS	$3,200
2	Curtis Granderson	LEFT	0.358	0.220	36.8%	0.218	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,100
3	Yoenis Cespedes	RIGHT	0.379	0.263	36.6%	0.499	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,900
4	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.335	0.175	34.6%	0.534	2B	$3,200	2B	$3,200
5	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.333	0.253	38.4%	0.245	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,200
6	James Loney	LEFT	0.314	0.098	24.6%	0.186	1B	$2,200	1B	$2,200
7	Travis D’Arnaud	RIGHT	0.317	0.158	29.4%	0.327	C	$2,200	C	$2,500
8	Kelly Johnson	LEFT	0.320	0.165	32.7%	0.482	3B	$2,500	2B/3B	$2,600
9	Rafael Montero	RIGHT							P	$4,000
	Team Averages	—	0.332	0.180	31.7%	0.362	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Minnesota at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%
Minnesota					Cleveland
			Hector Santiago					Trevor Bauer
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CLE -185					9.0
SP vs. Left (2015-16)	0.306	9	30.2%	18.7%	SP vs. Left (2015-16)	0.311	18	33.6%	22.7%
SP vs. Right (2015-16)	0.332	47	36.2%	20.8%	SP vs. Right (2015-16)	0.306	20	30.3%	21.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Hector Santiago
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$4,300
					FPPG:		25.2	FPPG:		12.0
					Pitcher Rating:		39.4	Pitcher Rank:		23
L30 Days	5	91.8	5.37	9.38	15.4%	7.7%	6.5%	26.4%	50.6%	38.2%
2016	26	94.8	4.83	5.16	19.6%	9.9%	8.9%	36.4%	48.2%	36.2%
2015	32	98.8	4.50	3.59	20.9%	9.2%	8.5%	29.9%	53.6%	33.6%

Santiago has been shelled in his last five starts, posting a 9.38 ERA (5.37 SIERA) with a strikeout rate of 15.4% and a walk rate of 7.7%. He is an extreme fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. That is one of the worst possible combinations that a pitcher can have, especially when it is accompanied by a low strikeout rate. Santiago is one of my least favorite pitchers in the slate and as I will get to below, the Indians are one of my favorite GPP stacks.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Trevor Bauer
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,200	Salary:		$8,300
					FPPG:		26.8	FPPG:		13.8
					Pitcher Rating:		61.2	Pitcher Rank:		9
L30 Days	6	98.5	4.67	4.63	18.5%	9.6%	7.6%	45.9%	29.7%	29.5%
2016	21	115.5	4.27	3.88	21.0%	9.1%	9.0%	48.6%	31.8%	32.9%
2015	30	95.6	4.20	4.55	22.9%	10.6%	9.6%	39.2%	40.7%	31.0%

Bauer hasn’t looked sharp over the last month of play, posting a 4.67 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 18.5% and a walk rate of 9.6%. He may be a large favorite tonight, but that has more to do with the opposing pitcher than anything else. The Twins have quietly been one of the best offenses in baseball recently, ranking eighth in team wOBA in the last month of play. I fully expect this game to turn into a shootout and will be avoiding both of the starting pitchers.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Do you know who is going to be on the Twins tonight? No one.

They are an intriguing stack in tournaments, as their ownership is going to be close to non-existent. They are large underdogs and they have the tenth lowest run projection in the slate. However, I see a red-hot offense that gets to face a struggling pitcher. Brian Dozier is the only cash-viable hitter in this lineup, but don’t be afraid to throw out a Twins’ stack in a GPP or two tonight.

Twins Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.316 (14 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.335 (8 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.165 (16 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.7% (20 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.95 (5 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.57 (12 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.01 (17 of 26)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	HC% vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Brian Dozier	RIGHT	0.333	0.222	30.9%	0.403	2B	$3,900	2B	$4,700
2	Joe Mauer	LEFT	0.326	0.120	31.2%	0.273	1B	$3,100	1B	$4,000
3	Max Kepler	LEFT	0.369	0.262	35.0%	0.287	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,600
4	Trevor Plouffe	RIGHT	0.306	0.173	32.4%	0.397	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,800
5	Miguel Sano	RIGHT	0.361	0.243	39.5%	0.176	OF	$3,400	3B/OF	$3,500
6	Jorge Polanco	RIGHT	0.321	0.118	26.4%	0.279	3B	$3,000	3B/SS	$3,400
7	Eddie Rosario	LEFT	0.308	0.188	31.2%	0.249	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,200
8	Kurt Suzuki	RIGHT	0.284	0.095	26.9%	0.280	C	$2,200	C	$3,000
9	Robbie Grossman	SWITCH	0.316	0.150	31.3%	0.338	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,600
	Team Averages	—	0.325	0.175	31.6%	0.298	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Brian Dozier

Secondary Plays – Max Kepler, Trevor Plouffe, Miguel Sano

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Cleveland

Even though the Indians have one of the best matchups in the slate, I don’t expect their offense to be very popular tonight. There are a ton of great offenses to target and we typically don’t like to target Cleveland against southpaws. While Hector Santiago has been tough on left-handed hitters, he is atrocious against righties. In the last two seasons, he has allowed a .332 wOBA, 47 home runs, and a hard contact rate of 36.2% to batters from the right side of the plate.

Indians Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.323 (18 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.339 (6 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.149 (24 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 21.2% (14 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.92 (8 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.93 (5 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.99 (7 of 26)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	HC% vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Rajai Davis	RIGHT	0.315	0.173	29.9%	0.269	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,800
2	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.319	0.148	29.7%	0.268	2B	$3,600	2B	$4,100
3	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.349	0.154	23.2%	0.284	SS	$3,400	SS	$4,200
4	Mike Napoli	RIGHT	0.394	0.263	38.8%	0.235	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,200
5	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.324	0.108	28.1%	0.377	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,300
6	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.311	0.129	23.7%	0.341	3B	$3,400	3B/OF	$4,500
7	Brandon Guyer	RIGHT	0.398	0.203	32.9%	0.335	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,500
8	Abraham Almonte	SWITCH	0.287	0.105	23.8%	0.281	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,700
9	Roberto Perez	RIGHT	0.320	0.115	28.1%	0.333	C	$2,300	C	$3,200
	Team Averages	—	0.335	0.155	28.7%	0.303	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Monday, August 29th

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Stackability Rating System:

Toronto at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Russell Martin, Troy Tulowitzki

Secondary Plays – Melvin Upton

Stackability – GREEN

Baltimore

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Manny Machado

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo, Chris Davis

Stackability – YELLOW

Washington at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Daniel Murphy, Bryce Harper

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rendon, Wilson Ramos

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Ryan Howard

Stackability – RED

Chicago White Sox at Detroit – 7:08 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu, Todd Frazier

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Detroit

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Cameron Maybin, Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, J.D. Martinez, Justin Upton

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler

Stackability – GREEN

Miami at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Mets

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Minnesota at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Brian Dozier

Secondary Plays – Max Kepler, Trevor Plouffe, Miguel Sano

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Cleveland

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Mike Napoli

Secondary Plays – Rajai Davis, Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana, Jose Ramirez

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

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