NFL Grind Down: Week 10 - Page Three

by LeoTPP Last Updated 2015-11-13 14:40:37

Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens

Jacksonville Jaguars						Baltimore Ravens
Sunday – 1 p.m.						M&T Bank Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		5.5	48	21.25				-5.5	48	26.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	21.3	22	15	25		Offense	23.8	15	16	24
Opp. Defense	26.8	25	29	10		Opp. Defense	29.4	30	25	7
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Baltimore Ravens	31	12	31	2		Jacksonville Jaguars	27	26	20	8
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Robinson	80	40	6	707		Aiken	44	25	2	333
Hurns	59	36	6	635		Brown	29	13	0	106
Lee	6	3	0	52		Perriman
Thomas	28	13	1	116		Gillmore	30	20	3	242

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Allen Hurns (JAC, Questionable), Crockett Gillmore (BAL, Probable)

JAC Matchup Rating: 5.5
BAL Matchup Rating: 6.5

Jacksonville Jaguars

Quarterback: Blake Bortles (FD $7,800, DK $5,600) has been a pleasant surprise this season, and especially over the last month or so, with over 300 yards in three of his last four games, and 11 touchdowns over that timeframe. He chips in 20-40 rushing yards on a regular basis, as well, which often goes unnoticed when assessing quarterbacks not “known” for their scrambling. This week’s matchup with the Ravens is extremely appealing, as Baltimore ranks 19th against the pass according to numberFire, and 28th according to Football Outsiders. They’ve allowed the second-most fantasy points to the position (only the Saints have allowed more), and lack talent in the secondary to handle opposing wideouts. Bortles is viable in all formats this weekend.

Running Game: The Ravens are almost as good against the run as they are poor against the pass. Ranked 14th by both numberFire and Football Outsiders, the Ravens have allowed only three rushing touchdowns to opposing backs this year, and only two 100-yard backs. Teams don’t really need to run against Baltimore that often, as their pass defense is so easy to move the ball against, but when they do try to run, results aren’t that great. T.J. Yeldon (FD $6,500, DK $4,800) would be in play if the Jags were the 5.5-point favorites, but since they’re the underdogs, it’s hard to rely on his volume.

Pass Catchers: Allen Robinson (FD $7,500, DK $6,700) and Allen Hurns (FD $7,300, DK $5,800) have combined to form one of the top WR duos in the NFL, both averaging nearly 18 yards per reception and scoring six touchdowns on the year. Hurns is dealing with an injury, and should be fine, but obviously keep an eye on his status. If he’s out, Robinson becomes even more appealing due to added volume, but if he plays, he’s a very strong option in his own right. The Ravens have allowed big games to second fiddle receivers like Torrey Smith, Marvin Jones and Malcom Floyd already this year, and Hurns could be the next in line to score a touchdown and pick up a nice chunk of yards against the Baltimore defense. Julius Thomas (FD $5,400, DK $3,700) is also in play, as Gary Barnidge showed that a tight end can find plenty of real estate in the Baltimore secondary. If Hurns is out, look to Bryan Walters (FD $5,300, DK $3,300) for a few cheap receptions as a part of this prolific passing attack.

The Takeaway: Blake Bortles and any of his top three receivers make for a strong stack in tournaments, and Bortles on his own can be played in cash games where the price is right.

Baltimore Ravens

Quarterback: Even with his options at receiver limited, Joe Flacco (FD $7,500, DK $5,500) remains a strong option in daily fantasy football. Flacco has four 300-yard games this season, and five mutli-touchdown games as well. He’s not incredibly consistent, but his “down” games have been fairly predictable. Arizona and Denver have very good pass defenses, and a one-touchdown effort against the Steelers is truly the only outlier on his game log so far. The Jaguars rank 29th against the pass according to Football Outsiders and numberFire’s rankings, and have allowed the seventh-most points to the position this year. Over their past three games, Brian Hoyer, EJ Manuel and Ryan Fitzpatrick have all throw for multiple touchdowns against Jacksonville, and Flacco should be next in line for that sort of performance.

Running Game: I don’t love Justin Forsett (FD $7,100, DK $6,000) as a runner this week, but if he can grind out a rushing touchdown against a tough Jacksonville run defense (second against the run, per DVOA), then he could hit value through his overall yards from scrimmage. The Jags have allowed a couple of big days on the ground via multi-touchdown outings, but five of eight teams to face them have failed to score a rushing touchdown. They also allow the fewest yards per carry in the league. But through the air, nine different backs have hauled in at least two passes for at least 25 yards against them this season, with big games from Charles Sims, Doug Martin and Arian Foster. If Forsett can catch 6-8 passes (he’s seen seven or more targets three times this year), and pick up 50+ yards through the air, he won’t need much production on the ground to hit value, and a touchdown (or two) would make him a strong option for tournaments. However, there may be quite a few players who opt for Forsett assuming “the Jaguars are bad against the run,” so he’ll be more popular than he should be, and is a solid candidate to fade altogether, especially on sites that don’t offer full-point PPR.

Pass Catchers: Kamar Aiken (FD $5,400, DK $4,500) is the player you’re going to hear about most, and he’ll certainly see a healthy amount of targets as the new starting receiver for the Ravens. But I especially like Crockett Gillmore (FD $5,000, DK $2,800) this week as a tight end against a team that has really struggled against the position. The Jags haven’t faced a good tight end in a few weeks, but early in the season, they allowed big games to Rob Gronkowski, Coby Fleener, and the duo of Jordan Cameron and Jake Stoneburner. Gillmore is one of the best pass catchers Joe Flacco has left in his arsenal, and the two have solid chemistry. Look for him to find the end zone in this one. As for the receivers, Aiken is a smart value play who should see more targets than most players priced in his range, but keep an eye on Chris Givens (FD $4,500, DK $3,200). He’s a player the Ravens traded for to bolster their WR depth, and with a bye week to process the offense, he’s quietly been named a starter (as noted by ESPN). He’s a big play receiver who could break loose against a suspect Jacksonville secondary, and is worth a spot on one or two of your tournament lineups.

The Takeaway: This game is full of great fantasy options, especially in the passing games. Flacco, Gillmore and Aiken are the three best plays for Baltimore, with Chris Givens representing a sneaky GPP option, and Justin Forsett representing the opposite of a sneaky tournament play.

Minnesota Vikings at Oakland Raiders

Minnesota Vikings						Oakland Raiders
Sunday – 4:05 p.m.						O.co Coliseum
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		**	**	**				**	**	**
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	21.0	23	31	6		Offense	26.6	7	13	21
Opp. Defense	26.4	24	32	8		Opp. Defense	17.5	2	5	18
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Oakland Raiders	16	22	25	32		Minnesota Vikings	6	8	9	20
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Wallace	48	27	1	296		Cooper	72	45	4	657
Diggs	45	28	2	470		Crabtree	80	47	5	591
Wright	24	12	0	221		Roberts	23	12	2	180
Rudolph	34	22	3	175		Smith	9	8	0	45

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Teddy Bridgewater (MIN, Questionable), Latavius Murray (OAK, Questionable)

MIN Matchup Rating: 4.5
OAK Matchup Rating: 4.5

Minnesota Vikings

Quarterback: Despite taking an ugly blow to the head in last week’s game, Teddy Bridgewater (FD $6,700, DK $5,100) appears to be on track to start against the Raiders this weekend. His team may be 6-2, but Teddy hasn’t been the one scoring the points and earning fantasy players’ trust this year. He has only two multi-touchdown games, and plays in a slow offense that ranks 29th in passes attempted on the year. That creates an interesting contrast when compared to the Raiders, who have faced the most passing attempts per game this season, and who have allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing QBs. Teddy is viable in tournaments based on matchup alone, but he could wind up handing the ball off 30 times and keeping his passes short and under control as the Vikings seek to control the clock and possession in this one.

Running Game: Adrian Peterson (FD $8,600, DK $7,100) is coming off of back-to-back 100-yard rushing games, and should be able to pick up his third in a row against the Raiders. Oakland ranks 17th in numberFire’s data against the run, and have allowed the 11th-most points to the RB position this season. DeAngelo Williams tore them up last week, and Matt Forte had a big yardage day from scrimmage against them as well. This isn’t a guarantee, considering how inconsistent Peterson has been, and how occasionally decent the Oakland run defense has been, but the Vikings are going to give their lead back every opportunity to get things going in this game, especially if Bridgewater doesn’t get the start due to injury.

Pass Catchers: Stefon Diggs (FD $6,600, DK $5,100) came back to Earth in a tough matchup last week, but is still the same talented, promising player who became incredibly popular after a strong four-game introduction to the NFL. This week he’ll face an Oakland defense that ranks 12th in points allowed to opposing wideouts, and will spend time matched up with Oakland’s average outside cornerbacks. If the Vikings throw, he’s a likely target, and should get back on track with a solid game this week. Mike Wallace (FD $5,300, DK $3,700) has one catch on ten targets in his last two games, and Kyle Rudolph (FD $4,700, DK $3,000) has two catches in each of his last six appearances. Neither has the volume to be rostered in any format.

The Takeaway: Adrian Peterson is one of the better options to pay up for at running back this week, but there’s enough risk to switch to Gurley, Murray, Williams or Ingram in cash games. Stefon Diggs should get back on track at the receiver position, but otherwise, there’s not a lot to like on this offense.

Oakland Raiders

Quarterback: From a fantasy points allowed perspective, the Vikings have been one of the tougher teams to target this season, but their advanced statistics reveal that there may be some smoke and mirrors involved. Minnesota ranks 29th in points allowed to opposing quarterbacks this year, but a mediocre 15th in DVOA against the pass. The Vikings play at a slow tempo, which helps to explain some of the lack in scoring against them, but they also have a well-coached defense that may simply be out-performing what the analytics perceive to be an otherwise average defense. They haven’t exactly faced a tough schedule of quarterbacks this season, as well, and Derek Carr (FD $7,500, DK $5,800) will change that when this weekend’s game kicks off. Carr has 11 touchdown passes in his last three games, and 19 on the season, compared to only four interceptions. He is unlikely to keep up this pace for the remainder of the year, but he’s playing too well right now to totally ignore. He’s a strong tournament play in what some may perceive as a tough matchup.

Running Game: Latavius Murray (FD $6,700, DK $5,700) is dealing with a concussion, but reports are optimistic that he’ll be able to play. If he does, he’s the Raiders’ clear leader on the ground, with over 100 more carries than the next closest back. He also has 80 or more rushing yards in each of his last three games, and will face a Minnesota run defense that ranks 28th in points allowed to backs, but 25th in DVOA against the run, and 20th in numberFire’s rankings. Carlos Hyde, Ronnie Hillman and Todd Gurley were all able to have big games against this defense, and Murray can too if he’s healthy. If he’s 100% cleared ahead of Sunday, lock him in as a tournament play or a secondary cash game option on a weekend with limited cheaper options at RB.

Pass Catchers: Amari Cooper (FD $7,100, DK $6,800) and Michael Crabtree (FD $6,400, DK $5,800) are the only pass catchers worth considering for the Raiders, and both have upside in this game despite Minnesota’s seemingly tough numbers against wideouts (25th in points allowed per game). Cooper will spend more time than Crabtree lined up against poor Xavier Rhodes, who PFF considers to be well below replacement level. But both should see snaps against him, and that’s good enough to present upside for a big play or two. Crabtree’s price makes him more appealing, but Cooper has explosiveness and will be a bit more contrarian. Both are fine options in any format.

The Takeaway: The Raiders have an explosive passing game that will look to expose what appears to be an overachieving Minnesota pass defense. The same could be said about the running game, although Oakland are less “explosive” on the ground. Either way, you can lean on any of the four key figures in this offense in tournaments this weekend, while Murray, Cooper and Crabtree are all good enough for cash game use.

New England Patriots at New York Giants

New England Patriots						New York Giants
Sunday – 4:25 p.m.						MetLife Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-7	54.5	30.75				7	54.5	23.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	34.5	1	3	27		Offense	27.4	5	9	19
Opp. Defense	25.1	19	31	22		Opp. Defense	17.9	5	19	3
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
New York Giants	30	23	15	30		New England Patriots	13	7	26	7
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Edelman	83	57	7	662		Beckham	92	59	7	762
LaFell	24	11	0	174		Randle	51	36	3	424
Amendola	37	30	2	335		Harris	31	19	3	233
Gronkowski	68	44	7	693		Donnell	41	29	2	223

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Larry Donnell (NYG, Out)

NE Matchup Rating: 8.5
NYG Matchup Rating: 5.0

New England Patriots

Quarterback: The Tom Brady (FD $9,100, DK $8,600) revenge tour slowed down a bit last week as the Patriots coasted to an easy win against an outmatched Washington team. Brady has a ridiculous 22 touchdowns and only two interceptions so far this season, and now faces a pass defense that allowed Drew Brees to go crazy a couple of weeks ago. Not that matchup matters for Brady. This game features two teams with up-tempo offenses, and the Giants should be able to keep this competitive enough to keep Brady throwing into the second half. It’s a great spot to lock in the top fantasy quarterback this season and move on.

Running Game: With Dion Lewis out for the season, we can now officially say that it is a LeGarrette Blount (FD $6,900, DK $4,900) game. Blount is not the most talented short-yardage runner, but he has big play potential thanks to his ability to burst through gaps and maintain his balance despite taking hits from opponents. The Giants have allowed the 12th-most points to opposing backs this year, but only five rushing touchdowns in nine games. It’s much easier to find the end zone through the air against the Giants, but the Patriots have such a great offense that it’s tough to downgrade anyone based on historical data like that. If they spot a weakness, they’ll attack that weakness. The main thing to consider with Blount is his volume is now more secure than ever, provided the Patriots are winning. James White (DK $3,000) is the back you want if you think this game stays very competitive, as he’ll play the passing down role vacated by Lewis. Brandon Bolden (FD $5,900, DK $3,000) will get more opportunities than he otherwise would have, but is unlikely to leapfrog either back and is tough to rely on for daily fantasy purposes.

Pass Catchers: If Prince Amukamara is ruled out again this week, that’s a big boost for the already appealing Brandon LaFell (FD $6,200, DK $4,100). LaFell is frustratingly inconsistent, but his issues with drops are not viewed the same way as running back fumbles in New England, so he’ll continue to get his chances. Julian Edelman (FD $8,000, DK $8,200) will spend time quite a bit of time matched up against “Not Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie,” which is the optimal matchup against this New York defense. He’s in play in all formats. And the Giants have allowed the third-most points to tight ends, so despite a few letdown games so far this season, you can roster Rob Gronkowski (FD $8,000, DK $8,000) with confidence.

The Takeaway: Take your pick, as the New England offense will run a ton of plays, and do so in a game which features a total well over 50 points. The running back situation is tricky, but the passing game holds several obvious targets. Brady, Edelman and Gronk are cash-game eligible, and if Prince Amukamara is out, so is LaFell. Blount is too risky for cash games for me, but definitely worth your while in tournaments.

New York Giants

Quarterback: The Patriots run at such a quick tempo, and get out to such big leads that quarterbacks often score more fantasy points against them than their quality of defense would suggest. On the season, New England ranks 15th in points per game allowed to QBs, but eighth in DVOA and ninth in numberFire’s rankings against the pass. Eli Manning (FD $7,400, DK $6,700) is really tough to trust, but this is a great spot for him to be forced into a ton of passing attempts and hopefully find production with that volume. In his four starts this season with 40 or more passing attempts, he has multiple touchdowns in each game, but one of those games was a very disappointing 213/2/2 game against Tampa Bay last week. He should throw 40 or more passes in this one, and the potential is there for three or four scores, a couple of interceptions, and somewhere around 300 yards. However, the floor is low (see his two games against Dallas), so don’t push all of your chips in on Eli.

Running Game: The Giants don’t have a running back worth targeting in fantasy football. They rotate backs in and out of the game frequently, removing value from all of them. If Shane Vereen (FD $5,800, DK $4,300) had a more affordable price, he’d be a sneaky target in his “revenge game,” but I don’t see much value in his current salary.

Pass Catchers: The Patriots will obviously look to take away the Giants’ top receiver, Odell Beckham Jr. (FD $8,800, DK $8,800). The question is… do they have the personnel and scheme to do so? I’m inclined to think they don’t, and will be using Beckham in tournaments this week. According to Football Outsiders, opposing WR1s do much better against New England than any other wideout or tight end, as we’ve seen from Antonio Brown, T.Y. Hilton, and Sammy Watkins. Rueben Randle (FD $5,700, DK $3,900) has been on a target roller coaster lately, and is tough to trust, but holds a lot of upside. And with Larry Donnell still dealing with an injury, the tight end situation is one to avoid, and it may open up more opportunities for Dwayne Harris (FD $5,100, DK $3,600) out of the slot. I’ll mainly be rostering Beckham from this pass catching corps, but Harris and Randle are risky but acceptable plays as well.

The Takeaway: The Giants should score a healthy amount of points in this game, but their offense is tough to trust. Eli Manning is prone to incredibly poor games, and the running game is a mess. Tread with caution, but fire up the passing game’s key players in tournaments.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos

Kansas City Chiefs						Denver Broncos
Sunday – 4:25 p.m.						Mile High Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		5.5	41.5	18				-5.5	41.5	23.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	24.4	12	21	13		Offense	24.0	14	17	30
Opp. Defense	17.4	1	2	5		Opp. Defense	22.8	14	23	11
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Denver Broncos	1	15	2	13		Kansas City Chiefs	14	9	32	1
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Maclin	61	42	2	561		Thomas	93	61	1	745
Wilson	23	12	1	165		Sanders	81	46	4	639
Thomas	19	13	2	130		Latimer	1	0	0	0
Kelce	55	40	3	538		Davis	31	18	0	194

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Emmanuel Sanders, Owen Daniels (DEN, Questionable), Peyton Manning, Ronnie Hillman (DEN, Probable)

KC Matchup Rating: 3.0
DEN Matchup Rating: 4.5

Kansas City Chiefs

Quarterback: There is no way to justify rostering Alex Smith (FD $6,000, DK $5,000) against the Broncos this weekend. Denver ranks first in DVOA against the pass, first in numberFire’s pass rankings, 32nd (last) in fantasy points per game allowed to opposing QBs, and are playing a home division game in the midst of a tight race at the top of the AFC. There are other affordable options in much better situations.

Running Game: Charcandrick West (FD $6,400, DK $4,800) appears to be the lead back for the Chiefs with Jamaal Charles out, and has gone over 100 total yards in his last two starts, with a touchdown in each game. He’ll face a very tough task against Denver this week, but the Broncos are not quite as strong against the run as they are against the pass. If you’re trying to pick out the player likely to score for Kansas City, West is your guy, but I still wouldn’t use him often, if at all. The Broncos rank sixth in DVOA against the run and third in DVOA against running backs in the passing game.

Pass Catchers: With Aqib Talib sitting this one out for Denver due to a suspension, Jeremy Maclin (FD $6,500, DK $5,500) will get some chances against Kayvon Webster and Bradley Roby. That’s enough of a downgrade to use Maclin in a tournament lineup or two, as he’s always capable of breaking a big play. Travis Kelce (FD $5,800, DK $4,800) is priced too high for this tough of a game, but the Broncos are a middle of the road matchup for tight ends, so you could do worse.

The Takeaway: The Broncos have an elite defense, and there are very few weaknesses this punchless Kansas City offense can exploit. Maclin and West are the two top options if you find yourself compelled to roster anyone from this team, but I would recommend a total fade.

Denver Broncos

Quarterback: I’ve caught myself hoping for that throwback Peyton Manning (FD $7,700, DK $6,200) game for a few weeks now, and I’ve been burned by his inconsistent performances. This week he’ll face the team he threw three touchdowns against in Week 2, which remains his season high. The Broncos’ passing offense has been subpar this year, and the Kansas City passing defense is mediocre (16th in DVOA, 18th in points allowed to quarterbacks), so I’ll be fine passing on Peyton this weekend.

Running Game: Ronnie Hillman (FD $5,900, DK $4,000) and C.J. Anderson (FD $5,900, DK $3,800) can’t claim the starting role from one another, but if Hillman plays, he’s my preferred option, as he’s been a more productive rusher so far this year. With that said, the Chiefs have been tough to score fantasy points against for backs (24th in points per game allowed), so I’ll probably just skip this team altogether when setting lineups.

Pass Catchers: Demaryius Thomas (FD $7,900, DK $7,400) and Emmanuel Sanders (FD $7,800, DK $7,300) continue to receive a ton of targets, but due to Manning’s inefficiencies, they struggle to produce consistent fantasy outings. Sanders is dealing with an injury, and if he sits out, Thomas gains a lot of appeal as a target machine against a defense with corners who grade out no better than passable starters, according to PFF. That also opens the door for Denver’s other wideouts, led by Jordan Norwood (FD $4,500, DK $3,000) if he’s healthy enough to return, or Bennie Fowler (FD $4,900, DK $3,000). Neither would be a lock for production, but either would be interesting punt plays in a tournament. As for the tight end situation, Owen Daniels (FD $5,100, DK $2,800) had a huge game last time out, but Vernon Davis (FD $5,100, DK $2,500) is lurking and will eventually work his way into the passing game. If Sanders is out, I like Daniels on sites where he’s priced as a bargain, but the threat of Davis leaves him as GPP-only.

The Takeaway: The Broncos used to be an offense to target heavily for DFS, and now it’s a situation we can largely avoid. The defense and special teams have been great all season, and this matchup with Kansas City is no different.

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