NHL Grind Down: Monday, October 17th
The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
NOTE: Listed team records/statistics are from 2015/16 season.
Colorado Avalanche at Pittsburgh Penguins
| Colorado Avalanche | Pittsburgh Penguins | ||||||||
 | Calvin Pickard |  | Marc-Andre Fleury | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 39-39-4 | 48-26-8 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.59 | 5.00 | 18.00% | 80.20% | Team Stats | 2.94 | 2.00 | 18.40% | 84.40% |
The scheduling gods were not overly friendly to the Colorado Avalanche, as after a promising start against the high-flying Dallas Stars, they’ll now head on a four game road trip through the crème of the crop in the Eastern Conference. That trip opens up this evening in Pittsburgh, where they’ll square off against the unbeaten Sidney Crosby-less Pittsburgh Penguins. While they’ll enter as the biggest underdog on the board tonight, they did flash plenty of offensive firepower in that opener and this Pittsburgh squad has allowed an average of 38.5 shots against per game in their first two games this season. Nathan MacKinnon headlines a very dangerous top forward line between Gabriel Landeskog and Jarome Iginla, and the Penguins just don’t really have the “shutdown” type of line to really slow this group down. Matt Duchene led the team with 59 points in 76 games last season and joins those three on the #1 power-play unit, with the talented Tyson Barrie running the point, and are therefore the top targets. Meanwhile Joe Colborne hasn’t put up big offensive numbers thus far in his career, but the former first round pick posted a hat trick in the opener and the change of scenery could be all he needed to get rolling. On defense, Barrie may be the most offensively gifted blue-liner on the Avalanche, but both Erik Johnson and Francois Beauchemin both also see plenty of run with the man advantage and offer very nice floors thanks to their shot blocking abilities (particularly Beauchemin)
After two straight wins, the Penguins will likely be popular selections this evening as the Colorado Avalanche invade the PPG Paints Arena. Colorado may have plenty of offensive firepower, but they owned an NHL worst 44.2 CF% last season and chasing a team as offensively gifted as the Pittsburgh Penguins is just a recipe for disaster. With Crosby sidelined, the scoring weight falls directly on superstar Evgeni Malkin. He’s already scored a goal and added two assists in the first two games of the season and it would be surprising to see him kept off the scoresheet tonight. Joining Malkin on the top line is his familiar partner Patric Hornqvist and Scott Wilson. Hornqvist has proven to be very dangerous with the puck on his stick and is a fine option in all formats. while Wilson sees a significant fantasy boost from an opportunity standpoint alone and is a fine value play. Phil Kessel joins Malkin and Hornqvist (and Nick Bonino) as the forwards on the top power-play unit and potted the game winning goal against the Ducks in their last game. On defense, Kris Letang lands in the top tier of fantasy defenseman alongside Brent Burns and Erik Karlsson tonight (as usual). He averaged nearly 27 minutes of ice-time per game last season and facilitates things from the point of that lethal #1 power-play unit. With Colorado’s poor puck possession abilities likely leading to an uptick in Pittsburgh power-play chances, he could be in for a very nice night. Alternatively, both Justin Schultz and Trevor Daley also see some power-play time with the second unit and are fine options if you’re searching for some salary relief.
Colorado Avalanche
Team Metrics – 2016 – 44.2 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -13, 113.44 CP60
Elite Options
Nathan Mackinnon – 2016 metrics – 57.25 CF60, 2.36 xGF60, 101.04 PDO
Secondary Options
Gabriel Landeskog – 2016 metrics – 52.64 CF60, 2.06 xGF60, 100.39 PDO
Jarome Iginla – 2016 metrics – 48.53 CF60, 1.98 xGF60, 100.08 PDO
Tyson Barrie – 2016 metrics – 51.55 CF60, 2.1 xGF60, 101.71 PDO
Francois Beauchemin – 2016 metrics – 49.66 CF60, 1.94 xGF60, 99.98 PDO
Expected Netminder
Calvin Pickard – My Ratings (out of 10): 5 Cash, 6.5 GPP
Pittsburgh Penguins
Team Metrics – 2016 – 52.72 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 30, 112.02 CP60
Elite Options
Evgeni Malkin – 2016 metrics – 60.59 CF60, 2.93 xGF60, 99.87 PDO
Patric Hornqvist – 2016 metrics – 65.39 CF60, 3.15 xGF60, 101.4 PDO
Kris Letang – 2016 metrics – 64.14 CF60, 2.86 xGF60, 98.7 PDO
Secondary Options
Phil Kessel – 2016 metrics – 61.91 CF60, 2.77 xGF60, 101.36 PDO
Carl Hagelin – 2016 metrics – 64.07 CF60, 3.02 xGF60, 99.2 PDO
Justin Schultz – 2016 metrics – 54.72 CF60, 2.52 xGF60, 98.96 PDO
Expected Netminder
Marc-Andre Fleury – My Ratings (out of 10): 8.5 Cash, 8 GPP
San Jose Sharks at New York Rangers
| San Jose Sharks | New York Rangers | ||||||||
 | Martin Jones |  | Henrik Lundqvist | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 46-30-6 | 46-27-9 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.89 | 1.50 | 22.50% | 80.50% | Team Stats | 2.84 | 3.00 | 18.60% | 78.20% |
The Sharks jumped out of the gates quickly with a pair of wins over the Kings and Blue Jackets respectively, and certainly look as if they’re going to be major players in the Western Conference was once again this season. They’ll continue their five game road trip tonight at Madison Square Garden looking to make another early season statements. While the Rangers are a solid team and backstopped by Henrik Lundqvist, there’s still plenty to like from San Jose tonight particularly on a four game slate. The Rangers owned an ugly 78.2% penalty kill last season while San Jose’s power-play clicked at a 22.5 clip, which was 3rd best in the NHL. With that in mind, Brent Burns stands out as one of the top plays on the board. The bearded wonder has already tallied a goal and two assists in the first two games this season and unloaded 105 more shots on goal last season than the next closest defenseman (Erik Karlsson). Joining Burns on the top power-play unit are the dangerous foursome of Patrick Marleau, Joe Thornton, Logan Couture and Joe Pavelski making those five my cash game targets in this matchup. Alternatively, the second power-play unit should be rather overlooked yet still has enough upside to warrant GPP consideration. Tomas Hertl centers the very offensively capable Mikkel Boedker and Joonas Donskoi on this unit while he (Hertl) also has the luxury of joining Thornton and Pavelski on the top line at even strength
Despite outplaying the St. louis Blues for the majority of the game on Saturday, the Rangers left the Scottrade Center without a point to even their record at 1-1-0. While the outcome was not what they were hoping for, they did outshoot St. Louis 35-18 which is at least an encouraging stat as they prepare to take on another strong puck possession team in the San Jose Sharks tonight. Up front, Alain Vigneault has two very capable forward lines to throw over the boards at San Jose but here’s the tricky part; one of these lines will likely be shadowed by Logan Couture, which would make the other trio a slightly stronger play. We don’t really have a track record to look at how Peter DeBoer will utilize his defensive stalwart, but considering the hot play and presence of Rick Nash on the “second line”, it seems feasible that they’ll (Nash, Zibanejad and Kreider) draw his attention. This would leave the top line of Jimmy Vesey, Derek Stepan and Mats Zuccarello with the slightly better matchup. On a busier night it may make sense to avoid teams playing the Sharks in cash games, but with just four games on the board, we don’t have that luxury. Much like the Rangers themselves, the Sharks struggled on the penalty kill last season (80.5% PK) and that seems the logical place to attack tonight. That gives a boost to all six of the forwards mentioned above and also brings Brandon Pirri into the mix as a GPP option as he simple has a knack for finding the back of the net. On defense, Ryan McDonagh is slated to take all the minutes he can handle both at even strength and on the power-play. He’s not quite as offensively gifted as the departed Keith Yandle, but he did log over 30 minutes of ice-time in St. Louis on Saturday and runs the show from the point of that #1 power-play unit.
San Jose Sharks
Team Metrics – 2016 – 51.69 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 15, 109.23 CP60
Elite Options
Joe Pavelski – 2016 metrics – 62.9 CF60, 2.76 xGF60, 103.64 PDO
Brent Burns – 2016 metrics – 62.34 CF60, 2.77 xGF60, 99.79 PDO
Secondary Options
Joe Thornton – 2016 metrics – 63.14 CF60, 2.89 xGF60, 104.43 PDO
Logan Couture – 2016 metrics – 57.16 CF60, 2.59 xGF60, 100.97 PDO
Patrick Marleau – 2016 metrics – 55.19 CF60, 2.56 xGF60, 97.57 PDO
Marc-Edouard Vlasic – 2016 metrics – 55.99 CF60, 2.46 xGF60, 101.21 PDO
Expected Netminder
Martin Jones – My Ratings (out of 10): 7.5 Cash, 8 GPP
New York Rangers
Team Metrics – 2016 – 47.36 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 34, 110.27 CP60
Elite Options
Mats Zuccarello – 2016 metrics – 54.04 CF60, 2.55 xGF60, 102.41 PDO
Secondary Options
Rick Nash – 2016 metrics – 55.61 CF60, 2.59 xGF60, 103.46 PDO
Derek Stepan – 2016 metrics – 54.96 CF60, 2.67 xGF60, 102.81 PDO
Mika Zibanejad – 2016 metrics – 57.06 CF60, 2.65 xGF60, 102.41 PDO
Chris Kreider – 2016 metrics – 55.95 CF60, 2.65 xGF60, 103 PDO
Ryan McDonagh – 2016 metrics – 52.43 CF60, 2.57 xGF60, 103.93 PDO
Expected Netminder
Antti Raanta – My Ratings (out of 10): 7 Cash, 8 GPP
Ottawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings
| Ottawa Senators | Detroit Red Wings | ||||||||
 | Craig Anderson |  | Petr Mrazek | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 38-35-9 | 41-30-11 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.80 | 3.50 | 15.80% | 75.80% | Team Stats | 2.55 | 5.00 | 18.80% | 81.50% |
The Senators are off to a 2-0 start and will look to keep things rolling as they hit the road for the first time in what is the very last ever home opener for the Detroit Red Wings at Joe Louis Arena. Ottawa likely won’t win many defensive awards this season, but they have shown the ability to get up and down the ice in a hurry and force the play offensively. Unlike most teams, their offensive attack starts from the back-end with Erik Karlsson easily their most dangerous offensive weapon. Karlsson has already tallied a goal and three assists in the first two games this season and led the team with 82 points in 82 games last year. With the Red Wings having looked lost all too frequently in their own end already this season, he looks like one of the safest options on the board this evening. Up-front, the Senators boast two very capable scoring lines. Kyle Turris, Mike Hoffman and Mark Stone are the more offensively talented trio, but they’ll also draw a heavy dose of playing time against the very talented two-way defenseman Frans Nielsen. This leaves the newly acquired Derick Brassard to center Zack Smith and Bobby Ryan on a second line that should see a bit more open ice in this matchup. With that said, you can grab some exposure to both lines by targeting their #1 power-play as both Ryan and Brassard join Hoffman and Stone (along with Erik Karlsson). With the Wings just 5 for 8 on the penalty kill to start the season, all five players look to be in fine spots this evening.
As a Wings fan, the first two games of the season have been rather difficult to watch. However, this team still has plenty of offensive talent to be a fine targets in DFS hockey when met with the right matchup, and a home meeting against the Ottawa Senators happens to be one of those times. Coach Blashill usage of the Detroit forwards has been frustrating to Wings fans dating back to the end of last season, and that theme continues as he once again “shook” up his forwards lines in a way that doesn’t really seem to benefit anyone. After a day on the fourth line, Just Abdelkader looks slated to rejoin Frans Nielsen on the top line, although rather than be joined by Henrik Zetterberg, Riley Sheahan looks to have drawn that assignment. While that’s not the best news for Nielsen, it does provide some opportunities for the newly formed line of Tomas Tatar, Dylan Larkin and Henrik Zetterberg. Zetterberg is a known commodity and still more than capable of putting up fine offensive numbers, and the speed skill combination of Larkin/Tatar seems like a nice opportunity for all three players to get rolling. Nielsen does still see some relief as he’ll get plenty of run on the top power-play unit as does Thomas Vanek who can definitely still put the puck into the net when given the opportunity. On the blue-line, things fall apart a bit for the Wings. Mike Green runs the show on the point of the #1 power-play play unit and is the a fine option when he’s priced correctly, but there’s just not much to like behind him at all.
Ottawa Senators
Team Metrics – 2016 – 47.45 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 1, 112.23 CP60
Elite Options
Erik Karlsson – 2016 metrics – 58.56 CF60, 2.51 xGF60, 99.98 PDO
Mike Hoffman – 2016 metrics – 55.95 CF60, 2.52 xGF60, 102.22 PDO
Derick Brassard – 2016 metrics – 54.05 CF60, 2.27 xGF60, 103.47 PDO
Secondary Options
Kyle Turris – 2016 metrics – 56.82 CF60, 2.23 xGF60, 98.94 PDO
Bobby Ryan – 2016 metrics – 52.04 CF60, 2.32 xGF60, 101.8 PDO
Mark Stone – 2016 metrics – 61 CF60, 2.42 xGF60, 100.13 PDO
Expected Netminder
Andrew Hammond – My Ratings (out of 10): 7 Cash, 8.5 GPP
Detroit Red Wings
Team Metrics – 2016 – 51.73 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -8, 104.46 CP60
Elite Options
Dylan Larkin – 2016 metrics – 57.32 CF60, 2.55 xGF60, 102.1 PDO
Henrik Zetterberg – 2016 metrics – 53.53 CF60, 2.49 xGF60, 98.98 PDO
Secondary Options
Tomas Tatar – 2016 metrics – 57.91 CF60, 2.59 xGF60, 99.83 PDO
Frans Nielsen – 2016 metrics – 58.25 CF60, 2.4 xGF60, 99.96 PDO
Thomas Vanek – 2016 metrics – 50.23 CF60, 2.25 xGF60, 101.24 PDO
Mike Green – 2016 metrics – 57.98 CF60, 2.64 xGF60, 98.47 PDO
Expected Netminder
Petr Mrazek – My Ratings (out of 10): 7.5 Cash, 8.5 GPP
Boston Bruins at Winnipeg Jets
| Boston Bruins | Winnipeg Jets | ||||||||
 | Tuukka Rask |  | |||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 42-31-9 | 35-39-8 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.88 | 3.50 | 20.50% | 82.20% | Team Stats | 2.59 | 4.00 | 14.80% | 78.40% |
The Bruins were disappointed by their effort in a 4-1 loss against the Maple Leafs on Saturday, but will look to get back on the winning track as they wrap up a three game road trip to start the season against the Winnipeg Jets. First and foremost, you’ll want to monitor the news surrounding Patrice Bergeron as game time approaches as several news outlets are reporting that he may return to action this evening. While his status would definitely shake everything up to some degree (and also be a blow to the Winnipeg forwards), I’ll continue this writeup under the assumption he’ll be out of action again this evening. Brad Marchand has put this team on his back without his partner-in-crime Bergeron and has already posted two goals and four assists in two games. He’s been joined by David Pastrnak and David Backes on the top line and, needless to say, they’ve been a handful for opposing defenses. While many will point to two soft matchups as the reason for their success (Columbus and Toronto), this Winnipeg team wasn’t much better last season as they coughed up 2.88 goals against per game. With that top line drawing plenty of attention, this looks like a nice spot to roll with David Krejci (in GPPs, especially) as he notched a goal and an assist in two meetings with the Jets last season and sees plenty of run on the point of the #1 power-play unit against a Jets team that averaged 11:13 in PIM/G last season. On the blue-line, Torey Krug has grabbed the reigns as the pointman on that #1 power-play unit and figures to be in for another very fine offensive season.
After a nice performance in their home opener, Winnipeg came out flat and dropped a 4-3 decision against Minnesota on Saturday and managed just 17 shots on goal in the process. They’ll head back home for tonight’s game with the Boston Bruins looking for some more consistency on both sides of the ice. These teams split their season series last year and my interest in this Winnipeg squad tonight hinges to a large degree on the status of Patrice Bergeron. His presence would be a decent blow to Winnipeg’s top forward line, but he still seems more doubtful than probable at this point so we’ll operate as if he’ll miss yet another game. Blake Wheeler is the top offensive weapon for the Jets and he’s off to a fine start with a pair of goals and two assists in the first two games. He’ll be joined by Mark Scheifele and the very talented #2 overall pick Patrik Laine on the top forward line and all three are fine options considering their reasonable price-tags across the industry. Alternatively, Mathieu Perreault has quietly topped 40 points in each of the last three seasons and centers the very talented Nikolaj Ehlers and Drew Stafford on the second line while also seeing a healthy dose of playing time with the man advantage. On defense, Dustin Byfuglien throws his hat into the “Top Tier” options on the blue-line this evening. He picked up a pair of assists in their last game and is often more concerned about jumping into the play offensively than monitoring his defensive assignments.
Boston Bruins
Team Metrics – 2016 – 49.55 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 7, 112.71 CP60
Elite Options
Brad Marchand – 2016 metrics – 66.32 CF60, 2.6 xGF60, 101.02 PDO
Torey Krug – 2016 metrics – 58.45 CF60, 2.29 xGF60, 101.04 PDO
Secondary Options
David Backes – 2016 metrics – 55.83 CF60, 2.49 xGF60, 99.93 PDO
David Pastrnak – 2016 metrics – 59.97 CF60, 2.3 xGF60, 101.58 PDO
David Krejci – 2016 metrics – 56.33 CF60, 2.07 xGF60, 102.3 PDO
Expected Netminder
Tuukka Rask – My Ratings (out of 10): 7 Cash, 8 GPP
Winnipeg Jets
Team Metrics – 2016 – 51.38 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 0, 109.26 CP60
Elite Options
Blake Wheeler – 2016 metrics – 64.39 CF60, 3.02 xGF60, 101.54 PDO
Dustin Byfuglien – 2016 metrics – 61.82 CF60, 2.91 xGF60, 100.18 PDO
Secondary Options
Mark Scheifele – 2016 metrics – 63.07 CF60, 3.06 xGF60, 102.09 PDO
Mathieu Perreault – 2016 metrics – 64.5 CF60, 2.84 xGF60, 97.75 PDO
Patrik Laine – 2016 metics – NA
Nikolaj Ehlers – 2016 metrics – 61.19 CF60, 2.71 xGF60, 100.56 PDO
Expected Netminder
Connor Hellebuyck – My Ratings (out of 10): 7 Cash, 7.5 GPP