NHL Grind Down: Saturday, December 5th

by Tom Woollam (elctrceye) Last Updated 2015-12-07 00:50:15

The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Washington Capitals at Winnipeg Jets – 03:00 PM EST

Washington Capitals					Winnipeg Jets
			Braden Holtby					Connor Hellebuyck
			Record					Record
			18-5-1					12-12-2
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	3.21	2.21	25.70%	84.10%	Team Stats	2.81	3.08	15.80%	79.00%

The Capitals continue their winning ways as they roll into Winnipeg fresh off a 3-2 victory in Montreal on Tuesday night. They are in the midst of a six-game winning streak which has helped propel them to the top of the heap in the Atlantic division. The power play has been hitting on all cylinders, as the Caps have scored 12 goals via the man advantage in their last 12 games. Winnipeg leads the league in both minor penalties and total penalty minutes overall. To make matters worse, they also have given up 13 power-play goals in their last 14 games, making the Washington power play the first place to target tonight. Barty Trotz has Alexander Ovechkin playing some good defensive hockey as evidenced by him taking one shot in Tuesday night’s win. T.J. Oshie has woken up a bit as he has three tallies in his last three games. Defenseman John Carlson takes the point on the power play and is very much in play today as he has five assists in his last four games. I can’t forget Nicklas Backstrom as he has been on the plus side at FanDuel over the past eight games. If it’s GPP plays you are looking for, I’d suggest the second line for the Caps which is comprised of Marcus Johansson, Evgeny Kuznetsov and Justin Williams.

One would think that with Washington playing such good hockey of late, that Winnipeg doesn’t have a chance in this one. Don’t get me wrong, Winnipeg is a bad team, but there are some indicators for a little hope tonight. Let’s start off with the fact that the Jets have played 11 of their last 16 on the road. They also had a lot of rest as they have played just one game since last Saturday’s loss in Colorado, and that was on Wednesday when they defeated the lowly Toronto Maple Leafs by a score of 6-1. To further continue the discussion, the Jets have been putting some rubber on net lately to the tune of 29, 28 and 35 shots in their last three games. As luck would have it, Washington seems to have a problem giving up shots of late, as we’ve seen with the 34, 34 and 35 shots they have given up in their last three games. Not only is this the most shots they have given up in any three-game span, it’s the most that they have given up in ‘any’ three games all year. Now the question that needs to be answered is, can Braden Holtby continue to withstand this apparent breakdown in the defense and be able to sustain his .927 save percentage? At any rate, let’s go with some of the Jets that put the puck on the net. Defenseman Dustin Byfuglien leads the team in shots with 87, the next six look like this: Blake Wheeler 73, Nikolaj Ehlers 70, Mark Scheifele 67, Andrew Ladd 66, Drew Stafford 64 and last but not least, Bryan Little with 56 shots. Wheeler is the odds-on favorite here as he leads the team in points with 26 and also has a point in each of his last five games. Byfuglien is next on the list as he has a goal and four assists in his last four games. If you’re looking for some GPP action, I would pair Ehlers and Scheifele as they are on different lines, but skate on the second power-play unit.

Elite Plays

Wash: Alexander Ovechkin
Wpg: Blake Wheeler

Secondary Plays

Wash: Nicklas Backstrom, T.J. Oshie, John Carlson, Marcus Johansson
Winn: Bryan Little, Dustin Byfuglien, Andrew Ladd

Pittsburgh Penguins at Los Angeles Kings – 04:00 PM EST

Pittsburgh Penguins					Los Angeles Kings
			Marc-Andre Fleury					Jonathan Quick
			Record					Record
			14-8-2					15-8-1
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.33	2.25	17.20%	83.30%	Team Stats	2.46	2.08	18.90%	83.50%

It took a while, but it finally looks like someone in the Penguins’ coaching regime came up with the idea to reunite Sidney Crosby with his old line mates in Chris Kunitz and Pascal Dupuis. In effect, what they did was just swapped out Patric Hornqvist and Chris Kunitz trying to create the magic that the top line had a few years back. The second line of Evgeni Malkin, David Perron and Phil Kessel remains intact and should be the line of choice tonight. That is if you go along with the thinking that the Malkin line is indeed Pittsburgh’s second line, as the Los Angeles Kings have the home ice advantage and last line change. Personally, I would put my top shut down line on Malkin’s line, so with all of that up in the air, the safest play may be trying to stick to Pittsburgh’s top power-play unit as they have scored 11 goals in the last 13 games with the man advantage. Malkin has been a beast of late as he has tallied five goals and three assists in his last four games.

After coming home from a less than successful 2-3 road trip, the Los Angeles Kings have won two straight overtime games against both Chicago and Vancouver. This game has all the makings of a defensive struggle as both teams rank in the top in the league in terms of goals allowed. Los Angeles leads the league with 51 and the Penguins are third by only giving up a surprising 55 goals against so far this season. If the Kings are going to find a chink in the armor, it may very well be on the power play. Los Angeles has scored seven power-play goals in their last 11 games while Pittsburgh creeps into the top five by giving up ten short-handed goals in their last 13 games. You can start with Jeff Carter and Anze Kopitar as they have both scored three goals and assisted on three others in the Kings last six games. Look to Alec Martinez for some defensive salary relief as he has assumed the point on the top power-play unit.

Elite Plays

Pit: Evgeni Malkin
LAK: Jeff Carter

Secondary Plays

Pit: Phil Kessel, Kris Letang, Chris Kunitz, Sidney Crosby
LAK: Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar, Tyler Toffoli

New York Islanders at Ottawa Senators – 07:00 PM EST

New York Islanders					Ottawa Senators
			Jaroslav Halak					Craig Anderson
			Record					Record
			14-8-4					13-7-5
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.81	2.35	19.40%	84.10%	Team Stats	3.16	2.88	22.40%	79.30%

The Islanders have suddenly started playing like the team we expected to see at the beginning of the season. Their record in the last ten games is 7-2-1 and that includes winning their last four games, three of them at home. The Islanders hit the road after beating St Louis last night by a score of 2-1 in a shootout on home ice. Take into considering that on Wednesday night they were able to beat in-state rivals, the New York Rangers, by not only the same score, but that game went into a shootout as well. This will be their third game in four nights and surely has all the makings of a letdown game. John Tavares is a point per game player but has only netted two goals in his last five games. Kyle Okposo is in the same boat with the stat line on him being a bit worse with a five-game total of just one goal and one assist. It does appear that the demotion to Ryan Strome has worked wonders in the motivational department. Strome has netted three goals while assisting on three others in his last five games. One has to wonder if the Islanders would consider doing that to Anders Lee, because if anyone needed motivation, he would be it. After a decent season last year, Lee has only four goals and eight assists in 26 games and has not pointed in his last five games.

With the New York Islanders playing last night, it would behoove us not to take a look at the red-hot top line of the Ottawa Senators. We can start with Mike Hoffman who has netted five goals and an assist in his last three games. Hoffman is not too shy to shoot the puck either as he has 17 shots in those same three games. Bobby Ryan has a goal and four assists in his last three games all the while having a steady three shots in each of his last four games. Kyle Turris rounds out the Senators top line and power-play unit while tallying three goals and five assists in his last seven games, should be a logical choice for your lineups tonight. Erik Karlsson is always in play but the problem is the same as it always is, his price tag may just be too high to fit him in. If you like narratives, Zack Smith is your guy. In the past six games, Smith has pointed in every odd game by scoring two goals and two assists in those games while in the even numbered games he has zero points. Mika Zibanejad and goaltender Mike Hammond are very close to returning from concussion like symptoms.

Elite Plays

NYI: John Tavares
Ott: Erik Karlsson, Mike Hoffman

Secondary Plays

NYI: Kyle Okposo, Frans Nielsen, Brock Nelson, Ryan Strome
OTT: Kyle Turris, Bobby Ryan, Mark Stone

Toronto Maple Leafs at St. Louis Blues – 07:00 PM EST

Toronto Maple Leafs					St. Louis Blues
			Garret Sparks					Jake Allen
			Record					Record
			8-13-5					15-7-3
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.12	2.65	19.00%	80.00%	Team Stats	2.60	2.44	17.90%	85.40%

Toronto ends their three-game road trip with a trip to St Louis to face the Blues. After dropping the first two games by a total score of 7-1, there really is no way to project if or when the Maple Leafs will start scoring, so for now they have to be treated only as a GPP play. The only thing that could possibly be in Toronto’s favor is the fact that the Blues played the Islanders last night. Leo Komarov had scored four goals in three games a few games back, but with Toronto only scoring one goal in the last two, it’s hard for anyone to sustain any kind of scoring streak. On defense, your choices become very limited. It looks like it’s between Dion Phaneuf, who could not muster a shot last game although he had 24 minutes of ice time or Morgan Rielly, who has not scored a point in his last four games. Slim pickings for sure.

St. Louis is sitting in second place in not only the Central division, but their 34 points are good for second in the Western conference as well. The Blues have lost their last two games with the latest being at the hands of the New York Islanders by a score of 2-1. It took all 65 minutes and only four shooters in the shootout to determine the winner. I am sure if you were to take a poll, most people would say that the talent on the St. Louis top line has more talent than any seven Toronto Maple Leafs put together. It is for this reason along with the fact that the Blues are on home ice that would make St. Louis a heavy favorite for line up ownership tonight. Vladimir Tarasenko continues to improve his game and is regarded as one of the superstars of the league. His 24 points in 24 games equates to a point a game and only scored in one of his last four games before last night. There was some question as to whether or not Tarasenko would play last night, but he seemed well enough to assist on the Blues only goal. Kevin Shattenkirk seemed unphased by the fact that he saw his eight-game point streak ended the other night against the Florida Panthers. Shatty got right back on the horse last night as he scored the lone St. Louis goal in the game last night.

Elite Plays

Tor: None
STL: Vladimir Tarasenko

Secondary Plays

Tor: Leo Komarov, Morgan Rielly
STL: Kevin Shattenkirk, Alexander Steen, David Backes, Paul Stastny, Jori Lehtera

Nashville Predators at Detroit Red Wings – 07:00 PM EST

Nashville Predators					Detroit Red Wings
			Pekka Rinne					Petr Mrazek
			Record					Record
			13-8-4					14-8-4
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.52	2.52	18.10%	76.00%	Team Stats	2.50	2.50	15.80%	83.70%

The Nashville Predators hit the road after what can only be described as a very lackluster three-game home stand. They have only scored 12 goals in their last eight games, and when you consider that eight of them came against Buffalo and Arizona, that only leaves four goals scored in regulation in the other six games. It’s tough to recommend anyone from the Predators for cash games so let’s see if we can take a stab at some GPP plays. You have to roll the dice here and guess which line Detroit will try to match up against. You have two to choose from with the first one being Filip Forsberg, Mike Ribeiro and Craig Smith and then the second line of Viktor Arvidsson, Calle Jarnkrok or James Neal. The best bet may be Jarnkrok and Neal as they play top power play as well as skate on the same line together. To go the other way the play here may be to take Forsberg and pair him with either defenseman Shea Weber or Roman Josi as those five fill out the top power-play unit for Nashville. This should be able to help optimize your Nashville GPP plays tonight.

Good news comes out of Detroit as head coach Jeff Blashill has moved Pavel Datsyuk not only back on the top line, but the top power play as well with Henrik Zetterberg and Justin Abdelkader. Blashill has obviously seen the horrid Nashville penalty kill of late and it appears he has decided to load up. The Predators started out by killing penalties at an 82 % rate in October, which then in turn fell to 72% in November and finally plummets to where it is now 57% in the last seven games. Gustav Nyquist leads the top power-play unit in points over the last five games with two goals and three assists. Abdelkader is next with four points, Kronwall and Zetterberg with three and Datsyuk brings up the rear with two points. You can throw all of that out however with the news of the new line up. The only thing to do now is to wait and see if it works.

Elite Plays

Nash: None
Det: None

Secondary Plays

Nash: James Neal, Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi
Det; Henrik Zetterberg, Pavel Datsyuk, Justin Abdelkader, Gustav Nyquist, Niklas Kronwall

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