NHL Grind Down: Thursday, November 5th
The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these write-ups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
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Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres – 07:00 PM EST
| Tampa Bay Lightning | Buffalo Sabres | ||||||||
 | Ben Bishop |  | Robin Lehner | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 6-6 | 5-7 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.43 | 2.50 | 20.00% | 78.60% | Team Stats | 2.25 | 2.92 | 22.70% | 71.40% |
The Tampa Bay Lightning were defeated by the Detroit Red Wings on Tuesday, which was the fifth loss in six games for Tampa Bay. The Lightning will look to turn it around tonight against a Buffalo Sabres team that has won their last two games. The Bolts are in a great spot to rebound tonight given how desperately Buffalo struggles on the defensive side of the puck. Buffalo is allowing 2.92 goals against per game and their penalty-kill percentage is an atrocious 71.4%. It appears Chad Johnson will be in net for Buffalo, which makes the match-up even better, as Johnson is not an NHL-caliber goaltender (3.16 GAA .811SV% this season). Lightning Coach John Cooper has shuffled his lines of late, splitting up the Triplets by moving Ondrej Palat onto a line alongside Steven Stamkos and Ryan Callahan. Both Stamkos and second-line center Tyler Johnson have points in back-to-back games. Stamkos has to be a favorite to hit the scoresheet tonight considering his focal power-play role. Victor Hedman isn’t cheap across the industry, but will continue to quarterback the top Tampa Bay power-play unit and is therefore in a great spot tonight.
The Buffalo Sabres have won three of their last four games and will look to establish their first three-game winning streak in nearly a calendar year tonight against the Tampa Bay Lightning. The Sabres are clicking at a respectable 22.7% on the power-play and the offense is much improved overall, scoring 2.25 goals per game played to start the season. Ryan O’Reilly paces the Sabres’ attack with 13 points in 12 games, including ten points over his last six games. The Sabres have four elite offensive players on their current roster, but O’Reilly, Tyler Ennis, Jack Eichel, and Matt Moulson are unfortunately (for fantasy purposes) spread across three lines and are split in half on the team’s two power-play units. Cody Franson and Rasmus Ristolainen quarterback the power-play units and are both solid low-cost options as the Tampa Bay penalty-kill stifles the opposition at a mediocre 78.6% rate.
Elite Plays
TBL: Steven Stamkos, Tyler Johnson, Victor Hedman
BUF: Ryan O’Reilly
Secondary Plays
TBL: Ondrej Palat, Ryan Callahan, Nikita Kucherov, Anton Stralman
BUF: Tyler Ennis, Matt Moulson, Jack Eichel, Cody Franson
Boston Bruins at Washington Capitals – 07:00 PM EST
| Boston Bruins | Washington Capitals | ||||||||
 | Tuukka Rask |  | Braden Holtby | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 6-4 | 8-3 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 3.82 | 3.27 | 34.20% | 70.00% | Team Stats | 3.27 | 2.55 | 22.60% | 88.20% |
The Boston Bruins fell to the Dallas Stars on Tuesday 5-3, bringing their four-game win streak to an end. The Bruins are far from the defensive powerhouse of seasons past, but have still found success due to their dynamic offense and special teams play. Boston leads the NHL in goals for per game played (3.82) and power-play percentage (34.2%), but are 3rd-worst in the league in goals against per game played (3.27). Boston gets a mediocre match-up against the Washington Capitals tonight, as the Caps have allowed only 2.55 goals against per game and defend on the penalty-kill at an 88.2% rate. Additionally, Braden Holtby is likely to start for Washington and he has been stellar this year. David Krejci leads the Bruins offense with 15 points in 11 games this year and is the preferred fantasy option playing alongside Loui Eriksson (11 points in 11 games). Torey Krug has four points in his past four games playing the point on the dynamic Boston power-play.
The Washington Capitals were defeated 5-2 by the New York Rangers on Tuesday and will look to rebound tonight on home ice against the Boston Bruins. As mentioned above, the Bruins are playing abysmal defensive hockey to start the season and the Capitals offense should have plenty of opportunities to convert tonight. The Washington top line of Alexander Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov, and T.J. Oshie has been dominant this year. Kuznetsov and Ovechkin are both converting at better than a point-per-game clip while Oshie has eight points in 11 games. Additionally, the Capitals have been solid on the power play, converting at a 22.6% rate. The Bruins have a league-worst poor penalty kill to start the year (70%), meaning the Capitals are extremely likely to convert with the man advantage tonight. John Carlson quarterbacks Washington’s top unit and he is firmly in play despite his high price across the industry. Nicklas Backstrom joins Ovechkin and Oshie on the top power-play as well and is a solid tournament play if you are seeking a lower-owned option.
Elite Plays
BOS: David Krejci, Torey Krug
WAS: Alexander Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov, T.J. Oshie, John Carlson
Secondary Plays
BOS: Loui Eriksson, Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand
WAS: Nicklas Backstrom, Marcus Johansson
New York Islanders at Montreal Canadiens – 07:30 PM EST
| New York Islanders | Montreal Canadiens | ||||||||
 | Jaroslav Halak |  | Carey Price | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 7-3 | |||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.92 | 2.31 | 27.60% | 90.90% | Team Stats | ||||
The New York Islanders beat the New Jersey Devils on Tuesday to right the ship after dropping three straight. New York should have their franchise player and leading scorer, John Tavares, back in the lineup tonight when they take on the Canadiens in Montreal. Tavares has 11 points in ten games this year and his return will stabilize a lineup that saw several changes in lines in his absence. The fantasy value of players like Anders Lee and Ryan Strome (both of whom could flank Tavares tonight on the top line) increases substantially with JT back in the lineup. The match-up against Montreal is quite poor (1.89 goals against per game played, 89.1% on the penalty-kill), but it’s slightly better with Mike Condon in net instead of Carey Price. If Tavares plays, look to the second line that features Kyle Okposo and Frans Nielsen as under-owned tournament options.
The Montreal Canadiens have seen a slight regression since their unbelievable 9-0-0 start to the season, losing three of the last five games. Much of this drop off is attributable to Carey Price being out of the lineup, but he remains sidelined tonight and Mike Condon will start again. The Canadiens will face the New York Islanders tonight on home ice. The Islanders are a neutral match-up, as they appear to be an improved defensive team this season (2.31 goals against per game played and a 90.9% penalty kill). The top line of Mac Pacioretty, Brendan Gallagher, and Tomas Plekanec are the top fantasy targets for Montreal in this game, but the third line’s recent success is cause for concern as Coach Michel Therrien may re-distribute some minutes throughout the lineup. In the past, the majority of Montreal’s production has flowed through the top line and top defensive pair of Andrei Markov and P.K. Subban, but Montreal’s forward depth has been on display as of late, with Tomas Fleischmann, David Desharnais, and Dale Weise contributing substantially on the score sheet. I would exercise caution in targeting the Habs tonight given the match-up and balanced production.
Elite Plays
NYI: John Tavares, Frans Nielsen
MON: Max Pacioretty, Brendan Gallagher, P.K. Subban
Secondary Plays
NYI: Anders Lee, Kyle Okposo, Nick Leddy
MON: Tomas Plekanec, Andrei Markov, Alex Galchenyuk
Winnipeg Jets at Ottawa Senators – 07:30 PM EST
| Winnipeg Jets | Ottawa Senators | ||||||||
 | Ondrej Pavelec |  | Craig Anderson | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 7-4 | 6-4 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 3.00 | 2.75 | 22.90% | 84.80% | Team Stats | 2.92 | 2.92 | 13.20% | 75.00% |
The Winnipeg Jets will play on the back-to-back tonight as they head to Ottawa to face the Senators. Winnipeg beat Toronto 4-2 last night in a game that was much closer than the score sheet indicates and will look to carry that momentum forward tonight. Blake Wheeler continues to pile up points for the Jets and now has 16 in 13 games. Wheeler’s line-mate Bryan Little is also converting at a point-per-game pace. The match-up against Ottawa is great for the Jets, as Ottawa allows 2.92 goals against per game and struggles on the penalty-kill (75%). While the Senators may sell out to shut down the Wheeler, Little, Andrew Ladd line, Winnipeg has seen solid production this season from their second line of Mark Scheifele, Nikolaj Ehlers, and Mathieu Perreault. This second line may be a great under-owned tournament option. Dustin Byfuglien lit the lamp last night and is in a great spot to do so again as the quarterback of Winnipeg’s top power-play unit.
The Ottawa Senators have won three of their past four games, including a 2-1 overtime victory against Montreal on Tuesday. The Senators host the Jets tonight, who will be playing a back-to-back on the road. Targeting against teams playing back-to-backs on the road is generally a profitable strategy, but keep in mind that Winnipeg has continued to steadily improve over the last few years and appears (at least on paper) to be playing solid defensive hockey (2.69 goals against per game). Ottawa will be without top-line winger Mark Stone as he remains suspended, but Mike Hoffman has returned to the lineup and will anchor the top line alongside Kyle Turris. The Winnipeg penalty-kill is middle-of-the-road at 83.7% and Erik Karlsson is always in play as one of the best offensive defensemen in the NHL and the quarterback on the top Ottawa power-play unit. Look to Bobby Ryan and Mika Zibanejad as low-owned tournament options who both see power-play time (albeit on separate units).
Elite Plays
WPG: Blake Wheeler, Bryan Little, Andrew Ladd, Dustin Byfuglien
OTT: Kyle Turris, Mike Hoffman, Erik Karlsson
Secondary Plays
WPG: Nikolaj Ehlers, Mark Scheifele, Mathieu Perreault
OTT: Bobby Ryan, Mika Zibanejad
Nashville Predators at Minnesota Wild – 08:00 PM EST
| Nashville Predators | Minnesota Wild | ||||||||
 | Pekka Rinne |  | Devan Dubnyk | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 7-2 | 7-2 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.73 | 2.27 | 21.60% | 87.10% | Team Stats | 3.18 | 2.91 | 21.60% | 76.00% |
The Nashville Predators lost 4-2 to the Anaheim Ducks in their last game and will look to right the ship tonight against the Minnesota Wild. Both teams in this match-up are 7-2-2 on the year, though the match-up tilts slightly in the Predators favor. Minnesota is allowing nearly three goals against per game and defending on the penalty-kill at a poor 76% rate. The Nashville offense is paced by James Neal and line mate Filip Forsberg, who have combined for 18 points in 11 games this season. While this line has been very successful as of late, they are likely to see a healthy dose of shut-down forwards and Ryan Suter tonight, so their fantasy upside takes a significant hit. Both Roman Josi and Shea Weber have been significant contributors for the Preds from the blue line at even strength and on the power-play.
The Minnesota Wild haven’t played in five days, with their last game being a 3-2 overtime loss to St. Louis on Halloween. Tonight the Wild host the Nashville Predators in what projects to be a low-scoring competitive affair between two playoff teams. The match-up against Nashville is quite poor as the Predators are allowing only 2.27 goals against per game and have gotten elite goaltending from Pekka Rinne (1.97GAA, .925 SV%) to start the year. Zach Parise (7g 2a in 11 games) has cooled since his red-hot start to the season, but Mikko Koivu continues to consistently produce for Minnesota with points in 9 out of 11 games this year. Despite his shutdown defensive role, Ryan Suter has also been a strong contributor for this club with ten points in 11 games.
Elite Plays
NSH: James Neal, Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi
MIN: Mikko Koivu, Zach Parise
Secondary Plays
NSH: Craig Smith, Shea Weber, Mike Ribeiro
MIN: Thomas Vanek, Jason Pominville, Ryan Suter