NHL Grind Down: Tuesday, February 2nd

by John Britt (jmbwngfn) Last Updated 2016-02-04 02:15:37

The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Ottawa Senators at Pittsburgh Penguins – 07:00 PM EST

Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Ottawa Senators					Pittsburgh Penguins
			Craig Anderson					Marc-Andre Fleury
			Record					Record
			23-21-6					24-17-7
Team Stats	2.70	3.02	17.90%	75.30%	Team Stats	2.50	2.44	19.90%	83.80%

Ottawa was quick out of the gates this season, but have slowed down lately and own just a 8-13-1 record in their last 22 games. They’ll invade the Consol Energy Center tonight to battle a Pittsburgh team that shut them out in their only previous meeting this season and who hit the break riding a three game winning streak. Kyle Turris has been out of action for the last two weeks, but Ottawa is hoping to have their star center back in the lineup tonight. His return would once again give the Senators two very dangerous forward lines, while Erik Karlsson remains the most offensively aggressive blue-liner in the NHL this season. Karlsson leads the team (and all NHL defensemen) with 52 points in 50 games and his sky-high ceiling makes him a very intriguing GPP target. Up-front, Mike Hoffman leads the team with 22 goals and will likely be joined by Mika Zibanejad and Bobby Ryan on the top line. Meanwhile, that would leave Turris to join Mark Stone on the second line. While Pittsburgh’s 83.8% penalty kill takes some of the fantasy appeal away, both of these teams like to push the tempo, so we should see plenty of scoring chances.

The Penguins have posted a solid 14-7-4 home record this season and will likely be fairly popular selections tonight with the defensively challenged Ottawa Senators coming to town. The Penguins picked up a 2-0 shutout victory over Ottawa in their only previous meeting and with the Senators allowing an NHL worst 3.41 goals against per game on the road this season, fading this team completely could be dangerous. Chris Kunitz is slated to be a game-time decision tonight, but regardless of his status, this is still a two-headed attack from the Penguins. Sidney Crosby and Patric Hornqvist are slated to join Kunitz (or likely Conor Sheary if Kunitz can’t go) on one line with Evgeni Malkin playing alongside Carl Hagelin and Phil Kessel on another. Evgeni Malkin has tallied 18 goals and 13 assists in 25 home games, with Sidney Crosby also thriving in front of the Pittsburgh faithful (13 goals and 14 assists in 24 games). Carl Hagelin has taken kindly to his new surroundings and has now dished out assists in each of his last four games. On defense, this looks like an ideal spot for Kris Letang. He’s tallied 33 points in 38 games and picked up an assist against the Senators in that first meeting. Ottawa’s league worst 75.3% penalty kill is a huge fantasy boost for several Penguins, but it may be Letang who benefits the most.

Ottawa Senators

CF%: 47.1, CP60: 111, 5×5 Differential: -7
Elite Options: Bobby Ryan, Mike Hoffman, Erik Karlsson
Secondary Options: Mika Zibanejad, Kyle Turris (if back), Mark Stone

Pittsburgh Penguins

CF%: 51.4, CP60: 109.8, 5×5 Differential: 0
Elite Options: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel, Patric Hornqvist, Kris Letang
Secondary Options: Carl Hagelin, Chris Kunitz (if back), Olli Maatta, Trevor Daley

Minnesota Wild at New York Islanders – 07:00 PM EST

Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Minnesota Wild					New York Islanders
			Devan Dubnyk					Jaroslav Halak
			Record					Record
			23-17-9					25-16-6
Team Stats	2.47	2.31	17.10%	80.00%	Team Stats	2.70	2.45	17.50%	87.20%

The All-Star break couldn’t arrive soon enough for the Minnesota Wild as they completely fell apart down the stretch and posted an unsightly 3-7-3 record during the month of January to slip all the way to 6th place in the Central Division. They’ve posted just a 9-9-6 record away from the Xcel Energy Center this season and face a stiff test in Brooklyn tonight against the New York Islanders. Zach Parise leads the team with 17 goals but he’s been rather quiet lately and oddly didn’t pick up a single assist in 13 games during the month of January. With that said, he’s still one of the best two-way players in the NHL and Minnesota’s most dangerous offensive weapon. Mikko Koivu leads the team with 35 points in 49 games and joins Parise on the #1 power-play unit. However, the Islanders have posted the NHL’s second best penalty kill which suppresses his fantasy appeal a bit. On defense, Ryan Suter continues to log huge minutes on the blue-line and remains criminally underpriced on FanDuel. He’s posted 31 points in 49 games and is a staple on the point of the #1 power-play unit.

The Islanders hit the break sitting right in the middle of a very crowded (Washington aside) Eastern Conference playoff race. They’ll host the Minnesota Wild at the Barclays Center tonight where they own a solid 15-8-3 record this season and where they’ve averaged a solid 2.92 goals per game. It was a fairly disappointing first half for John Tavares, but the Islanders Captain racked up 17 goals and 24 assists in 36 games after the break last season and is still the Islander’s most explosive offensive weapon. While he’ll likely be shadowed across the ice by Zach Parise, he showed signs of life before the break (five points in the last five games) and is worth a look in all formats tonight. Kyle Okposo actually leads the team with 35 points at the break and has posted 22 points in 25 home games this season. He joins Tavares on the #1 power-play unit where the duo will look to take advantage of Minnesota’s middling penalty kill. Brock Nelson doesn’t receive as much attention as he likely deserves, but he was wielding a white hot stick before the break; scoring six goals and adding a pair of assists in his last eight games. Defensively, Johnny Boychuck is nearing a return but still unlikely to be ready right away. This means Nick Leddy will continue to log huge minutes and run things from the point of the #1 power-play unit. He’s scored three goals and picked up six assists over the last 12 games and can still be found at a discounted price.

Minnesota Wild

CF%: 48.3, CP60: 105.9, 5×5 Differential: 10
Elite Options: None
Secondary Options: Zach Parise, Jason Pominville, Mikko Koivu, Ryan Suter, Jared Spurgeon

New York Islanders

CF%: 50.3, CP60: 112.5, 5×5 Differential: 4
Elite Options: John Tavares, Kyle Okposo
Secondary Options: Frans Nielsen, Brock Nelson, Ryan Strome, Nick Leddy

Florida Panthers at Washington Capitals – 07:00 PM EST

Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Florida Panthers					Washington Capitals
			Roberto Luongo					Braden Holtby
			Record					Record
			29-15-5					35-8-3
Team Stats	2.65	2.18	16.20%	83.10%	Team Stats	3.33	2.15	27.10%	84.90%

The Florida Panthers were one of the biggest surprises in the Eastern Conference and will exit the All-Star break sitting in first place of the Atlantic Division. They’ll face a very tough test to start the second half as they travel to our Nation’s Capital to take on the NHL leading Washington Capitals. While they’ll obviously be pleased to see Mr. Ovechkin in the press-box, Braden Holtby sports a ridiculous 16-2-1 record and 1.98 GAA in 20 home starts this season. Aaron Ekblad is back at to full strength on the blue-line and his presence on this team can’t be overlooked as Florida has now won 15 straight games in which he’s appeared. Offensively, the top line of Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov and Jaromir Jagr have been responsible for the bulk of the damage this season. However, with these teams being the top two defensive teams in the NHL this season, this doesn’t look like a source for fantasy fireworks and I’ll be limiting my exposure on such a busy slate.

The Capitals hit the All-Star break as the best team in the NHL, but they’ll be forced to play without their leader Alex Ovechkin tonight and that’s obviously a huge blow to this team. Not only will they be without Mr. Ovechkin, but the matchup against a Florida team allowing a league low 2.18 goals against per game makes them slightly tough to trust for one of the first times this season. With that said, they’ve posted an 18-3-2 record at the Verizon Center this season and still have plenty of firepower lurking in their lineup. Former first round pick Evgeny Kuznetsov actually leads the team with 49 points in 47 games and hit the break on an absolute heater with two goals and ten assists in his last six games. He’ll center Justin Williams and Jason Chimera on the second forward line, leaving Andre Burakovsky to inherit Ovechkins role alongside T.J. Oshie and Nicklas Backstrom. John Carlson made a surprise return to the lineup in their last game before the break, and when healthy, is a top tier option on the blue-line. He’s racked up 27 points in 35 games and his return puts a dent into the fantasy outlook of Matt Niskanen. Fading the Capitals was a dangerous strategy throughout the first-half, but with Ovechkin and a very difficult matchup against the Panthers, it might be prudent tonight.

Florida Panthers

CF%: 47.4, CP60: 97.3, 5×5 Differential: 17
Elite Options: None
Secondary Options: Jonathan Huberdeau, Jaromir Jagr, Aaron Ekblad

Washington Capitals

CF%: 50.4, CP60: 109.3, 5×5 Differential: 31
Elite Options: Evgeny Kuznetsov
Secondary Options: Nicklas Backstrom, T.J. Oshie, Justin Williams, John Carlson, Matt Niskanen

Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins – 07:00 PM EST

Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Toronto Maple Leafs					Boston Bruins
			Jonathan Bernier					Tuukka Rask
			Record					Record
			17-21-9					26-18-5
Team Stats	2.34	2.72	15.90%	80.10%	Team Stats	2.94	2.65	25.90%	84.40%

The All-Star break couldn’t come quick enough for Mike Babcock as his Toronto Maple Leafs completely fell apart down the stretch and limped into the break having dropped nine of their last ten games. They’re clearly not going to be a factor in the Eastern Conference this season, but Mike Babcock will be expecting this team to finish the season strong and gain some momentum for next season. They’ll start the second half of the season in Boston to battle a Bruins team that has already defeated them three times this season. With Toronto posting an NHL low 1.58 goals per game during the month of January, there’s not much to get excited about here. Leo Komarov leads the team with 16 goals and 15 assists and will join Nazem Kadri to form a dangerous duo on the top line. While they have the highest offensive upside, they’ll also likely see a full dose of the pestering defense of Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron which is obviously a big blow to their fantasy outlook. On defense, Morgan Rielly, Dion Phaneuf and Jake Gardiner soak up all of the available playing time on the point of the Toronto power-play, but with the Bruins owning an 84.4% penalty kill, they’re best served as GPP fliers only.

The NHL scheduling gods did Boston a favor as they’ll face a very several favorable matchups to open the second half of the season as the Toronto Maple Leafs kick things off and invade the TD Garden tonight. Boston has had their way with the Maple Leafs this season, winning all three prior meetings and they finished the first half of the season having won five of their last seven games. Toronto has had no answer for the duo of Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand on Boston’s top forward line as Marchand has lit the lamp four times in their first three meetings while Bergeron has added two goals and a pair of assists. Alternatively, David Krejci tallied points in three straight games heading into the break and his return has once again given Claude Julien two very dangerous forward lines to throw at his opponents. Krejci will be surrounded by Loui Eriksson and Ryan Spooner at even strength while also joining Bergeron on the #1 power-play unit. Eriksson has posted 11 goals and 13 assists in 26 home games and Spooner puts a four game point streak on the line and has just wrapped up a month of January that saw him score two goals and add 11 assists in 13 games. On defense, Torey Krug 22 points is a bit underwhelming considering his offensive abilities, but his 2.0% shooting percentage is unsustainably low and he figures to have a much stronger second half of the season. Zdeno Chara scored his 7th goal of the season in the last game before the break and has logged over 21 minutes in every game he’s played in this season.

Toronto Maple Leafs

CF%: 49.8, CP60: 113.9, 5×5 Differential: -10
Elite Options: None
Secondary Options: Nazem Kadri, Leo Komarov, Dion Phaneuf

Boston Bruins

CF%: 49.6, CP60: 109.6, 5×5 Differential: 6
Elite Options: Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, David Krejci, Torey Krug
Secondary Options: Ryan Spooner, Loui Eriksson, Brett Connolly, Zdeno Chara

Montreal Canadiens at Philadelphia Flyers – 07:00 PM EST

Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Montreal Canadiens					Philadelphia Flyers
								Michal Neuvirth
			Record					Record
								20-18-8
Team Stats	2.66	2.66	17.40%	84.30%	Team Stats	2.24	2.61	17.40%	77.70%

The once 9-0-0 Montreal Canadiens imploded down the stretch and after finishing the first half with an atrocious 5-18-1 record over their last 23 games. There probably wasn’t a team in the league more desperate for a “reset” than Montreal and they’ll look for a fresh start tonight as they head to Philadelhia to battle a surging Flyers squad. While trusting the Canadiens offense has been a losing endeavor lately, they still have some fantasy appeal tonight against a Flyers team entering tonight’s game with the 26th ranked penalty kill. P.K. Subban was heating up before the break with three goals and seven assists in his last ten games and is a major weapon on the point of the #1 power-play unit. With 18 power-play points already on the young season (and a 3.0% shooting percentage that’s destined for improvement), he’s a top-tier option on the blue-line. Up-front, Max Pacioretty should be ready to return to action tonight after taking a puck to the face last week and will step back onto the wing of both the top line and #1 power-play alongside Tomas Plekanec and Brendan Gallagher. Gallagher lit the lamp against the Flyers in their first outing and has posted eight goals and seven assists in 16 road games this season.

The Flyers were able to put an end to a three-game losing streak with a huge win against the Capitals to end the first half and, after posting a solid 13-8-3 record after a rough start, are suddenly within striking distance of a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. The Flyers receive a disproportionate amount of their offense from their top line or Voracek, Giroux and Simmonds and with Montreal having allowed 3.27 goals per game during the month of January (and still without Carey Price), they all look like very nice options this evening. That trio combined for 11 goals and 20 assists in 11 games during January. Alternatively, Brayden Schenn scored a goal and added two assists against Montreal earlier this season and finished the month of January with five goals and six assists in 11 games. He joins Voracek, Giroux and Simmonds on the #1 power-play unit and is often overlooked. Shayne Gostisbehere has taken the NHL by storm since being called up in mid-November. He picked up at least one point in four straight games to close out the first half and has now tallied 8 goals and 14 assists in 29 games.

Montreal Canadiens

CF%: 53.5, CP60: 109.1, 5×5 Differential: -5
Elite Options: Max Pacioretty, P.K. Subban
Secondary Options: Tomas Plekanec, Brendan Gallagher, Alex Galchenyuk, Andrei Markov

Philadelphia Flyers

CF%: 50, CP60: 113.1, 5×5 Differential: -5
Elite Options: Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux, Shayne Gostisbehere
Secondary Options: Brayden Schenn, Wayne Simmonds, Mark Streit