NHL Grind Down: Wednesday, October 14th
The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
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Please note that the win/loss numbers listed below represent each team’s 2014-15 team record and do not currently account for overtime losses.
Ottawa Senators at Columbus Blue Jackets – 07:00 PM EDT
| Ottawa Senators | Columbus Blue Jackets | ||||||||
 | Craig Anderson |  | Sergei Bobrovsky | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 43-26 | 42-35 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.83 | 2.54 | 16.80% | 82.90% | Team Stats | 2.77 | 3.02 | 21.70% | 80.20% |
The Senators picked up wins in each of their first two games, but ran into a wall against Carey Price and their nemesis Montreal Canadians on Monday to fall to 2-1-0. The Senators took two of the three meetings against the Blue Jackets last season and look to be the more complete team as this season gets into full swing. It’s been a nightmare start for the Columbus defense and with them allowing 4.33 goals per game through the first three games and already having surrendered four power-play goals, there’s plenty to like from Ottawa this evening. Both of the top two scoring lines for the Senators are dangerous with both very capable of exploding on any given night. Kyle Turris and Mark Stone lead the charge thus far as both players have picked up four points. Columbus’ struggles on the penalty kill are nothing new as they posted a subpar 80.2% penalty kill last season (23rd in the NHL). WIth that in mind, those top six forwards are all in play and Erik Karlsson is solidified as one of the top defensive options on the board.
The Blue Jackets fell the Buffalo Sabres on Monday and suddenly find themselves sitting at 0-3-0 and are only a handful of losses away from potentially destroying the momentum they built up down with their superb play down the stretch of the 2014-15 season. From a fantasy perspective, this Blue Jackets team is pretty easy to breakdown; their top scoring line is very dangerous and will be leaned on nightly to produce offensively. With Ottawa having allowed the 6th most shots on goal per game last season, Saad/Johansen/Foligno should have plenty of opportunities to keep Columbus in this game. On Defense, Jack Johnson continues to play big minutes for the Blue Jackets and both he and Ryan Murray are worth consideration thanks to their roles on the team’s power-play.
Elite Plays
OTT: Kyle Turris, Mike Hoffman, Erik Karlsson
CBJ: Brandon Saad, Ryan Johansen, Nick Foligno
Secondary Plays
OTT: Mark Stone, Bobby Ryan
CBJ: Scott Hartnell, Brandon Dubinsky, Jack Johnson
Chicago Blackhawks at Philadelphia Flyers – 08:00 PM EDT
| Chicago Blackhawks | Philadelphia Flyers | ||||||||
 | Corey Crawford |  | Steve Mason | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 48-28 | 33-31 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.68 | 2.27 | 17.60% | 83.40% | Team Stats | 2.59 | 2.72 | 23.40% | 77.10% |
The defending Stanley Cup Champs fell short against the Rangers on opening night, but they bounced back nicely by sweeping a home-and-home series from the very tough New York Islanders. This team may have lost several pieces from last season’s Cup winning team, but with the main core all returning, another deep playoff run is all but a certainty for Chicago. In effort to slow down the two-headed monster of Claude Giroux and Jakub Voracek, it quite logical to assume Coach Quenneville will do everything in his power to match them as often as possible with the very defensive sound Marian Hossa and Jonathan Toews. This, frankly, is somewhat bad news for both groups of players. With that in mind, targeting the red-hot Anisimov/Kane/Panarin line looks not only smart, but rather cheap as well. It’s also worth noting that Philadelphia was abysmal on the penalty kill last season, and considering that Chicago was a dominant puck possession team in 2014-15 (53.6 CF%), the Hawks will likely be given quite a few chances with the man advantage. The “Usual Suspects” aside, Andrew Shaw, Teuvo Teravainen, Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook all stand to benefit.
I mentioned the duo of Voracek and Giroux earlier, and in large part, that’s about all you need to know about this Flyers team. That duo combined to pick up points on the same goal 46 times last season (3rd highest pair in the league) and elevated the Flyers power-play to the third best conversion rate in the league at 23.4%. The even strength matchup opposite Toews/Hossa is a nightmare for them, but their prowess on the power-play definitely keeps them as fine options on such a short slate considering the Blackhawks ugly 75.6% penalty kill after the all-star break last season. Giroux and Voracek’s third wheel at even-strength, Michael Raffl, is a fine value as he’s slated for playing time on that #1 power-play unit. Other solid options are the pesky Wayne Simmonds who has a knack for finding the puck down-low with the man advantage and the puck-moving defenseman Mark Streit.
Elite Plays
CHI: Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Duncan Keith
PHI: Claude Giroux
Secondary Plays
CHI: Artem Anisimov, Marian Hossa, Andrew Shaw, Artemi Panarin, Teuvo Teravainen, Brent Seabrook, Corey Crawford
PHI: Jakub Voracek, Wayne Simmonds, Michael Raffl, Mark Streit
Boston Bruins at Colorado Avalanche – 10:00 PM EDT
| Boston Bruins | Colorado Avalanche | ||||||||
 | Tuukka Rask |  | Semyon Varlamov | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 41-27 | 39-31 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.55 | 2.45 | 17.80% | 82.00% | Team Stats | 2.55 | 2.72 | 15.00% | 84.60% |
The Bruins missed the playoffs last season and certainly aren’t quieting the sounds of panic in Boston after their 0-3 start to this season. While they did get Zdeno Chara back in action on Monday, they also lost Brad Marchand to a concussion….. And they’ve already allowed 16 goals in three games this season. There were fears that the end was near for this era of Bruins history, and the early season returns are unchartered waters for nearly this entire roster. While Colorado does have it’s own defensive issues to worry about, they did take both meetings between these teams last year. With that said, the Avalanche were the second worst team in the league by Corsi Standards last season and likely represent the easiest matchup yet for Boston and it’s hard to imagine they don’t “right the ship” sooner rather than later. Despite the struggles, the matchup tonight is soft enough to put the top two forward lines in play. Colorado was rock solid on the penalty kill last season, but Torey Krug logs huge minutes on the point of the #1 power-play unit and is emerging as the blue-liner you’ll want to target from Boston this season.
Opening night was a disaster for the Avalanche as they blew a 4-1 third period lead to fall 5-4 against the Wild. However, they bounced back in a big way on Saturday and walked away with a 6-3 win over the Dallas Stars. The Avalanche are loaded with young talent up front and appear to be heading in the opposite direction than Boston. Patrice Bergeron is one of the games best defenders, but the problem for him here is two fold; 1) he’ll likely be without his partner-in-crime Brad Marchand, and 2) the Avalanche have two equally dangerous scoring lines. With just four games on the board, both top scoring lines look like fine options. Gabriel Landeskog and Nathan Mackinnon appear to be the more dangerous duo, but it could very well be a mistake to sleep on the more experienced Matt Duchene and Jarome Iginla.
Elite Plays
BOS: Patrice Bergeron, Torey Krug
COL: Nathan Mackinnon, Gabriel Landeskog, Erik Johnson
Secondary Plays
BOS: Loui Eriksson, David Krejci, Matt Beleskey, Zdeno Chara
COL: Matt Duchene, Jarome Iginla, Alex Tanguay, Tyson Barrie
Arizona Coyotes at Anaheim Ducks – 10:30 PM EDT
| Arizona Coyotes | Anaheim Ducks | ||||||||
 | Mike Smith |  | Frederik Andersen | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 24-50 | 51-24 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.01 | 3.26 | 20.00% | 76.70% | Team Stats | 2.78 | 2.70 | 15.70% | 81.00% |
Arizona played the Ducks rather tough last season, with Anaheim ultimately winning three of their five meetings. After two fairly tough games to open their schedule (Los Angeles and Pittsburgh), it’s a bit surprising to see the Coyotes sporting a 2-0 record. However, the Coyotes were the doormat of the Western Conference last season and did very little (see: nothing) in the offseason to make themselves a better hockey team. Upfront, this team just doesn’t possess a true elite scoring option as their leading scorer last season was the budding star defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson. Mikkel Boedker, Shane Doan and Martin Hanzal all have some offensive ability, but they’re less than stellar options against this bruising Ducks squad.
The Ducks have only managed to score one goal over their first two games (both losses), but this is essentially the same team that posted 109 points and averaged a solid 2.88 goals per game last season. The experiment to separate Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf thankfully lasted just one game, as that dynamic duo was reunited on Monday and join forces to form one of the most lethal forward lines in the NHL. Jiri Sekac finds himself in the favorable position of playing alongside those two and that fact alone makes him a nice value this evening. Veteran Ryan Kesler centers a second line that Coach Boudreau is counting on for some secondary scoring, but we just haven’t seen much production out of the veteran for several seasons now. On defense, the Ducks are fairly young now with Francois Beauchemin out of the picture, but Cam Fowler, Hampus Lindholm and Sami Vatanen all showed flashes of offensive upside last season and are all slated to see a healthy dose of playing time with the man advantage.
Elite Plays
ARI: None
ANA: Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry
Secondary Plays
ARI: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Shane Doan, Mikkel Boedker, Martin Hanzal
ANA: Ryan Kesler, Jiri Sekac, Carl Hagelin, Chris Stewart, Hampus Lindholm, Sami Vatanen, Frederik Andersen