MLB DFS Slate Preview: Tuesday, July 25
Taylor Smith previews the Tuesday, July 25th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Tuesday brings a nice 12-game MLB DFS slate. We’ve got quite a few aces to consider, including some in advantageous matchups. A slate of this size means we’ve still got plenty of quality stacks, too. The headliner is, as usual, the Braves, who will face the Red Sox in the most hitter-friendly ballpark on the board. There’s a lot to sort through, so let’s dive right into our MLB DFS picks for Tuesday night.
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- The sketchiest game on the slate from a weather standpoint appears to be the aforementioned ATL/BOS clash. Kevin Roth has this one listed as a straight ORANGE, with storms expected around the ballpark this evening. ORANGE means there’s at least a chance we’ll see an early PPD here, so keep an eye on Twitter (X?) for updates as we get closer to lock. Roth will also give his latest forecast on Crunch Time at 6:20 ET.
- COL/WAS is listed as ORANGE/YELLOW with the potential for a delay. Roth thinks the early storms will clear in time to get a game in here, but forecasts are always subject to change.
- The Subway Series opener (NYM/NYY) gets a YELLOW tag due to late start potential. It sounds like this game should play, even if it starts in a delay.
- SEA/MIN is a straight GREEN, with storms likely coming into Minneapolis after the game. This game also has temps in the low-90s at first pitch, making it the hottest game on the slate.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Merrill Kelly will make his return to the Diamondbacks’ rotation tonight. He’s been sidelined for almost exactly a month with a blood clot in his leg, and he got up to 75 pitches in his most recent simulated game. On a slate with plenty of pitching, Kelly seems quite unnecessary in a matchup against the Cardinals at $10,500 on FanDuel and $9,000 on DraftKings.
- The Red Sox may once again open with Brennan Bernardino, while Nick Pivetta is a candidate to pitch long relief. Nothing is ever certain in these scenarios, though Pivetta has flashed quite a bit of upside in recent long relief outings. The matchup with the Braves should be enough to scare people away, anyway.
- The Rangers are expected to roll with a bullpen game tonight against the Astros after their bullpen was decimated in Monday’s series opener. Cody Bradford is a candidate to draw the “start.”
- Bo Bichette should be back in the Jays’ starting lineup tonight against Julio Urias after getting a night off last night. Santiago Espinal will likely return to the bench after drawing the start at short on Monday. Bichette has been struggling of late, as he went 0-for-14 in the 3-game weekend series in Seattle. Danny Jansen missed last night’s game with a forearm injury, which led to another start behind the plate for Alejandro Kirk.
- Adolis Garcia is still day-to-day after missing consecutive games with the hand injury he sustained in Saturday’s game. Travis Jankowski has been moonlighting as the Rangers’ starting right fielder with Garcia out of the lineup.
- Yordan Alvarez returned to the Astros last night, but he hasn’t yet been activated from the injured list. As was the case yesterday, there’s a chance he returns to the lineup tonight after missing nearly two months with an oblique issue. Yainer Diaz has been getting most of the work at DH with Alvarez sidelined.
- J.D. Martinez was reportedly available to pinch-hit on Monday, but he didn’t appear in the Dodgers’ loss to the Blue Jays. He’s missed the last two games with hamstring tightness, and he’s questionable to return tonight against Chris Bassitt.
- Byron Buxton was placed on the paternity list on Monday, which means he’ll miss the Twins’ entire series against the Mariners. Trevor Larnach was recalled to take his place on the roster, and he’s projected to hit 7th in the Minnesota order tonight against George Kirby. Joey Gallo returned to the lineup last night after missing a couple of games with pink eye.
- Gleyber Torres left Sunday’s game with hip tightness, so we’ll see if he’s in the Yankees’ lineup tonight against Justin Verlander. Jakob Bauers should resume leadoff duties after he was activated off the injured list on Sunday.
- Lane Thomas left yesterday’s game after he was hit on the knee by a pitch. The move was precautionary, but we’ll see if he returns to the leadoff spot tonight.
- Willson Contreras and Nolan Gorman were both absent from the Cardinals’ lineup yesterday as they recover from hip and back issues, respectively. Brendan Donovan led off in Gorman’s spot yesterday, while Andrew Knizner got the nod behind the plate.
- Evan Longoria and Nick Ahmed are projected to start for Arizona tonight against lefty Steven Matz. Jose Herrera is expected to catch after Carson Kelly did the job in last night’s game.
- Kris Bryant and C.J. Cron missed last night’s game with injuries, while Ryan McMahon was a late scratch. All 3 are in our early projected Colorado lineup ahead of their matchup against Trevor Williams tonight.
- Andrew Vaughn has missed a few games with a foot injury, but he’s hoping to return to the White Sox’ lineup tonight against the Cubs.
- Tommy Pham has missed a few games in a row with a nagging groin injury, though the Mets have thus far kept him off the injured list. The Mets are already thin on outfielders with Starling Marte on the IL.
- Brent Rooker missed the A’s entire weekend series against the Astros with an illness, though there’s a chance he returns tonight against the Giants.
- We don’t officially know who’s starting for the Red Sox, but the Braves will look like one of the better stacks on the slate regardless. You’ll have to pay for them, but the league’s most powerful offense taking the field in Fenway will always project pretty well. The Padres (5.5), Guardians (5.1), and Nationals (5.1) are also among the teams projected to score at least 5 runs tonight. If you’re looking to go a bit off the board, I don’t mind the Cubs or Red Sox as stacks against Michael Kopech and Charlie Morton, respectively.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- There are 5 pitchers listed at $10,000 or above on FanDuel tonight and several more in the $9,000-$9,900 range. Blake Snell ($11,000) leads the pack in a solid spot against the Pirates, as the projected Pittsburgh lineup has struck out more than 29% of the time against LHPs on the season. There are some patient hitters atop the lineup, though, which could give Snell some headaches. Pablo Lopez ($10,000) will all be making his second straight start against the Mariners. Corbin Burnes ($10,300) has rediscovered his Cy Young form in 2 starts since the All-Star break, while Andrew Abbott ($10,800) looks a tad overpriced on the other side of that game. Burnes and Lopez look like the plays if you’re not paying all the way up for Snell.
- $9,300 is a lot to pay for Aaron Civale, but we’re paying a premium for his matchup against the lowly Royals. If I’m going cheap with a pitcher on FanDuel, though, I’m much more likely to do so with Alex Cobb ($8,900) at home against the A’s. We’ve been picking on Oakland all year, and this is a great bounce-back spot for Cobb after he got wrecked by Cincy in his last outing.
- If the weather holds, we’ll probably want to get to those Braves in all formats. Bullpen games are tough to project, but Pivetta seems likely to get some burn. He’s had some home run issues in his career, and the Braves project incredibly here. Marcell Ozuna ($2,900) is your best value play in a park that plays up right-handed power, while Michael Harris ($2,900) and Orlando Arcia ($2,700) can also help you save some salary. I’m not breaking news by saying Ronald Acuna, Austin Riley, and Matt Olson are 3 of the best pay-up bats on the slate.
- Julio Urias is a talented pitcher, but the Blue Jays profile well to deal with lefties. Urias has also had some issues with the long ball this season, and the Toronto stack is downright cheap on FanDuel. Matt Chapman ($3,000), George Springer ($3,100), and Bo Bichette ($3,200) are quite affordable, while even Vladimir Guerrero ($3,600) looks reasonable. Noted “lefty masher” Jordan Luplow is also a candidate to start here at min-salary. Toronto is an excellent GPP value stack on FD.
- Rich Hill got off to a solid start this season, but his form has dipped recently. The Padres can throw quite a bit of righty power his way, starting with the obvious Fernando Tatis ($4,100), Manny Machado ($3,800), and Xander Bogaerts ($3,000) trio. The rest of the Pads’ RHBs – Gary Sanchez, Ha-Seong Kim, Luis Campusano, Matthew Batten – are affordable.
- Game stacking really isn’t a thing in baseball, but both offenses in the Chicago derby look attackable with Michael Kopech and Kyle Hendricks on the mound. Dansby Swanson, Seiya Suzuki, and Ian Happ are 3 of my favorite sub-$3,000 hitters on FD, while Luis Robert ($3,800) and Eloy Jimenez ($3,100) are the only White Sox hitters north of the $3,000 threshold.
- Luis Robert (.285 ISO, .356 wOBA) has been tearing the cover off the ball this season, and I like his chances of doing more of the same tonight against a non-strikeout pitcher in Hendricks. I’ll be rolling with Robert to total more than 2.0 hits + runs + RBIs tonight on Underdog. If you’re a new user, take advantage of our Underdog promo code for a 100% match bonus on your next deposit of up to $100.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- A few more value one-offs worth a look tonight on FanDuel are Tyrone Taylor ($2,100), Ryan McMahon ($2,900), Tyler O’Neill ($2,300), Giancarlo Stanton ($3,000), and Bobby Witt ($3,100).
- Pablo Lopez ($10,400) and Blake Snell ($10,000) are the most expensive arms on DraftKings. Both are strong options that should generate some ownership, but I’ll side with Snell’s higher strikeout rate if I’m only rostering one of them in any format. We’re getting a nice discount on Corbin Burnes ($9,200), who looks a lot like his old self these days. I don’t think Justin Verlander ($9,100) is a terrible tournament play against a watered-down version of the Yankees, even if JV’s strikeout stuff isn’t quite what it used to be.
- We can go even cheaper if we want to, though. George Kirby isn’t the best strikeout pitcher in the world, but $8,700 against a higher-strikeout Twins offense is appealing enough. Alex Cobb ($7,600) should be the chalky SP2 du jour against Oakland, and rightfully so. In GPPs, you can talk me into Aaron Civale ($7,200) and J.P. France as passable pivot away from a popular Cobb.
- There’s enough good cheap pitching to make it fairly easy to stack teams like the Braves, Blue Jays, and Dodgers. While Civale is squarely in play at his affordable salaries, I don’t think stacking the Royals against him is the worst idea in GPPs. Civale is still a low-strikeout guy with a reverse right-handed split, and we can find plenty of value in this KC lineup. Bobby Witt ($4,900) and Salvador Perez ($4,300) are somewhat pricey, but MJ Melendez ($2,900), Edward Olivares ($2,700), and Maikel Garcia ($3,300) are cheap enough to round things out.
- I don’t think a Houston stack against a battered and undermanned Rangers bullpen is a bad idea, either, especially if Yordan Alvarez is back in there. $5,000 for Yordan is certainly a discount, but I’d expect the high salaries and size of the slate to keep the Astros’ ownership to a minimum. Kyle Tucker ($6,300) is the other obvious standout, while Mauricio Dubon ($4,100) and Jose Abreu ($3,700) should draw decent lineup spots. Yainer Diaz ($4,500) is one of the few catchers out there with legitimate slugging upside, too.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck!