MLB Grind Down: Friday, October 7th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-01-11 20:07:44

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

Toronto at Texas – 1:05 PM ET

Toronto					Texas
			J.A. Happ					Yu Darvish
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TEX -125					8.5
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.287	3	35.8%	17.9%	SP vs. Left (2016)	0.263	4	34.2%	32.5%
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.292	19	30.4%	21.1%	SP vs. Right (2016)	0.287	8	26.5%	31.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

J.A. Happ
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,300	Salary:		$7,000
					FPPG:		34.6	FPPG:		17.7
					Pitcher Rating:		40.3	Pitcher Rank:		8
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
L30 Days	6	95.0	5.18	2.97	14.6%	9.0%	7.7%	43.0%	35.5%	28.7%
2016	32	94.8	4.28	3.18	20.5%	7.5%	9.6%	42.5%	35.5%	31.6%
2015	31	91.6	3.82	3.61	21.1%	6.3%	8.1%	41.6%	34.1%	31.2%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 2.75 — K%: 21.4% — wOBA Allowed: 0.289
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.96 — K%: 20.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.304

The Blue Jays wiped the floor with the Rangers yesterday to take a 1-0 lead in a best of five series. They have a chance to really put the pressure on with a win today. Happ has a 3.18 ERA on the season, but his advanced statistics suggest that he hasn’t been quite that dominant. In 32 starts, he posted a 4.28 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20.5%. He draws a difficult matchup today against a Rangers’ offense that was ranked eighth in team wOBA against left-handed pitching during the regular season. In what feels like a must win spot for Texas, I will be avoiding Happ in all formats.

Yu Darvish
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,400	Salary:		$10,200
					FPPG:		39.2	FPPG:		21.9
					Pitcher Rating:		89.2	Pitcher Rank:		2
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
L30 Days	5	91.4	2.86	4.40	34.7%	8.3%	13.6%	48.5%	38.2%	32.4%
2016	17	92.9	3.08	3.41	31.7%	7.5%	12.6%	40.4%	40.0%	30.0%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.26 — K%: 29.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.297
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 2.28 — K%: 34.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.245

I took the bait with Cole Hamels yesterday and I’ll be the first to tell you that it was the wrong play. With little to no value to speak of, it made more sense to pay down at pitcher in order to afford some of the more expensive hitters. Even though I like the idea of going back to a Rangers’ pitcher today, this is a different story. Darvish has been absolutely dominant this season, posting a 3.08 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 31.7%. He may not throw 120 pitches, but he could easily see 100 pitches in a must win spot against the Blue Jays. This statistic may shock some, but the Jays actually had the third worst team wOBA on the road this season.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays’ offense went bonkers last night against Cole Hamels and the Rangers’ bullpen. While they should have a ton of confidence, this is not an ideal situation. In addition to an elite strikeout rate, Yu Darvish has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .290 wOBA this season. The Blue Jays are deep tournament plays at best, even though they have the second highest implied team total in the slate.

• Blue Jays Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.328 (7 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.181 (6 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 22.4% (24 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.69 (9 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.10 (2 of 8)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista

Stackability – ORANGE

Texas

The Rangers are favored in this game, they are treating this as a must win, and they have the highest implied team total in the slate. There are a ton of reasons to load up on the Rangers’ offense and hopefully the recency bias of yesterday’s game will lower their ownership a bit. In 2016, J.A. Happ has allowed 22 home runs – three to left-handed hitters and 19 to right-handed hitters.

• Rangers Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.325 (8 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.159 (17 of 30)
  Team K% vs. LHP — 20.3% (9 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.72 (7 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.40 (1 of 8)

Confirmed Lineup

Elite Plays – Carlos Gomez, Carlos Beltran, Adrian Beltre

Secondary Plays – Ian Desmond, Rougned Odor, Jonathan Lucroy, Elvis Andrus

Stackability – GREEN

Boston at Cleveland – 4:35 PM ET

Boston					Cleveland
			David Price					Corey Kluber
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CLE -105					7.0
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.320	7	31.6%	20.2%	SP vs. Left (2016)	0.284	9	28.4%	23.4%
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.305	23	36.0%	25.2%	SP vs. Right (2016)	0.266	13	26.8%	29.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

David Price
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,100	Salary:		$8,000
					FPPG:		36.3	FPPG:		19.2
					Pitcher Rating:		55.1	Pitcher Rank:		7
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
L30 Days	6	96.3	3.72	4.35	22.0%	3.8%	12.1%	42.6%	39.1%	33.9%
2016	35	102.7	3.60	3.99	24.0%	5.3%	11.9%	43.7%	33.9%	34.8%
2015	32	105.9	3.27	2.45	25.3%	5.3%	11.9%	40.4%	36.4%	28.2%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.49 — K%: 26.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.296
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 2.99 — K%: 22.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.285

Price really picked it up after a rough start to the season. In 35 starts, he finished the year with a 3.60 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 24%. He is a pitcher that throws a ton of strikes and is typically able to pitch deep into games. The Indians are never a lineup that I like to pick on when it comes to pitchers, but they are a lot better against right-handed pitching than they are against left-handed pitching. During the regular season, Cleveland was ranked 14th in team wOBA against southpaws. Price makes a very strong play on DraftKings, where he is priced at a bargain of $8,000.

Corey Kluber
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,100	Salary:		$8,200
					FPPG:		40.9	FPPG:		22.9
					Pitcher Rating:		68.2	Pitcher Rank:		5
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
L30 Days	5	97.8	3.58	3.45	28.8%	8.3%	14.1%	32.9%	49.4%	25.3%
2016	32	99.7	3.50	3.14	26.4%	6.6%	12.6%	44.5%	36.3%	27.6%
2015	32	102.3	2.98	3.49	27.7%	5.1%	12.9%	42.4%	35.9%	27.0%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.04 — K%: 26.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.284
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.61 — K%: 28.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.273

The Indians picked up a huge win against the Red Sox last night and have a chance to go up 2-0 in a best of five series. They will have their ace on the mound tonight in Corey Kluber and Vegas has the game set as a pick ‘em. In 32 starts this season, Kluber posted a 3.50 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26.4%. He generates a lot of swings and misses, which is exactly what he is going to need to do against the Red Sox. On the season, Boston had the highest team wOBA against right-handed pitching. Kluber would typically be a strong play, but this slate is loaded with pitching options. I would only target him on DraftKings where he is priced at $8,200.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox need a win today, as they don’t want to go home down 0-2 in this season. Unfortunately, they draw a difficult matchup against Corey Kluber, who has dominated at home throughout his career. In 2016, Kluber has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .285 wOBA. Mookie Betts is really the only hitter in this lineup with some success against Kluber in the past.

• Red Sox Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.348 (1 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.183 (5 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 18.0% (3 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 5.42 (1 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 3.47 (5 of 8)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Brock Holt, Mookie Betts, David Ortiz

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Cleveland

The Indians came alive in the early innings last night and they will try to do the same today against David Price. This is not an ideal matchup by any means, but we are forced to take less than optimal plays in the playoffs. On the season, David Price allowed a .320 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .305 wOBA to right-handed hitters. He also gave up 23 home runs to batters from the right side of the plate.

• Indians Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.323 (14 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.151 (22 of 30)
  Team K% vs. LHP — 20.5% (10 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.83 (4 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 3.53 (4 of 8)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Mike Napoli

Secondary Plays – Rajai Davis, Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana, Jose Ramirez

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

LA Dodgers at Washington – 5:35 PM ET

LA Dodgers					Washington
			Clayton Kershaw					Max Scherzer
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			LAD -145					6.0
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.137	0	24.1%	36.9%	SP vs. Left (2016)	0.323	17	31.0%	25.5%
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.227	8	29.8%	29.8%	SP vs. Right (2016)	0.206	14	29.0%	37.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Clayton Kershaw
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,200	Salary:		$12,000
					FPPG:		44.5	FPPG:		27.0
					Pitcher Rating:		95.4	Pitcher Rank:		1
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
L30 Days	5	78.2	2.98	1.29	26.2%	1.9%	12.0%	47.9%	34.2%	25.7%
2016	21	98.2	2.41	1.69	31.6%	2.0%	15.3%	49.4%	30.1%	28.4%
2015	33	102.8	2.24	2.13	33.8%	4.7%	15.9%	50.0%	28.2%	25.3%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 1.44 — K%: 35.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.197
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 2.48 — K%: 30.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.244

Kershaw is known as the best regular season pitcher in the major league history. The only thing missing from his resume is success in October. In 13 postseason appearances in his career, he has a 4.59 ERA with a strikeout rate of 29%. While many will look to these numbers as a reason to fade him, a lot of that damage was against the Cardinals and a lot of it was at the tail end of his starts. I’m still a Kershaw believer and so is Vegas. The Dodgers are favored on the road against Max Scherzer. If that doesn’t tell you something, I’m not sure what will.

Max Scherzer
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,800	Salary:		$11,400
					FPPG:		45.6	FPPG:		25.8
					Pitcher Rating:		83.2	Pitcher Rank:		3
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
L30 Days	6	104.3	3.48	3.29	27.9%	6.7%	15.3%	28.8%	43.3%	33.0%
2016	34	104.8	3.05	2.96	31.5%	6.2%	15.3%	33.0%	47.9%	30.1%
2015	33	101.8	2.63	2.79	30.7%	3.8%	15.3%	35.8%	45.4%	28.1%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.01 — K%: 30.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.261
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 2.76 — K%: 31.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.264

Scherzer has been dominant all season, boasting a 3.05 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 31.5%. He draws a fairly difficult matchup against the Dodgers, but he gets to face them at home in the pitcher-friendly Nationals Park. I fully expect this game to be a repeat of the Giants/Mets wildcard game where both of these pitchers come out and throw fire. The issue with both of them is run support. When we pay up for a pitcher, we want them to have strikeout upside and a good chance at picking up the win. There is a scenario where both pitchers could get stuck with a no decision.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers have one of the most difficult matchups in the slate, as they square off against Max Scherzer on the road. They have hit right-handed pitching well this season, but they are only projected to score 3.26 runs. The one plus in this matchup is that Scherzer has allowed 31 home runs this season – 17 to left-handed hitters and 14 to right-handed hitters.

• Dodgers Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.331 (6 of 30)
  Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.311 (18 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.177 (7 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 21.1% (18 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.82 (24 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.48 (14 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 3.26 (6 of 8)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Justin Turner, Adrian Gonzalez, Yasmani Grandal

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington

I don’t target hitters against Clayton Kershaw, even in the postseason. He has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .230 wOBA this season. He absolutely dominates lefties, which takes Daniel Murphy and Bryce Harper out of the equation. The only hitters to potentially consider here is Jayson Werth, who has a .432 wOBA against southpaws this season.

• Nationals Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.332 (4 of 30)
  Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.313 (17 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.196 (2 of 30)
  Team K% vs. LHP — 20.9% (11 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.81 (22 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.71 (8 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 2.74 (8 of 8)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jayson Werth

Stackability – RED

San Francisco at Chicago Cubs – 9:15 PM ET

San Francisco					Chicago Cubs
			Johnny Cueto					Jon Lester
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHC -180					7.0
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.291	6	30.4%	23.2%	SP vs. Left (2016)	0.237	3	29.5%	26.8%
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.263	9	24.4%	21.8%	SP vs. Right (2016)	0.272	18	25.8%	24.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Johnny Cueto
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,500	Salary:		$9,900
					FPPG:		39.5	FPPG:		21.7
					Pitcher Rating:		59.3	Pitcher Rank:		6
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
L30 Days	5	97.6	3.14	1.78	25.2%	5.0%	11.7%	52.1%	21.9%	27.1%
2016	32	103.1	3.59	2.79	22.5%	5.1%	9.4%	50.2%	29.0%	27.2%
2015	32	102.1	3.81	3.44	20.3%	5.3%	9.9%	42.4%	35.6%	28.7%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 2.87 — K%: 21.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.267
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.32 — K%: 21.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.299

Before we get into this game, how about the performance by Madison Bumgarner? The guys is nails in the postseason and no matter the situation, he looks as cool as a cucumber. Cubs’ fans had to have been cheering for the Mets, as the Giants have won the World Series in each of the last three even years. Cueto will be on the mound for the Giants. While he is an excellent pitcher, he comes into the game as a sizable underdog. In fact, the Giants are the biggest underdogs in the slate. I know the Giants can pull miracles out of nowhere, but I like the Cubs to get out to a lead in this series.

Jon Lester
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,300	Salary:		$10,600
					FPPG:		38.2	FPPG:		21.0
					Pitcher Rating:		82.0	Pitcher Rank:		4
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
L30 Days	5	102.2	3.08	1.60	25.8%	3.9%	10.8%	55.3%	30.6%	18.2%
2016	32	98.8	3.61	2.44	24.8%	6.5%	10.3%	46.9%	32.8%	26.6%
2015	32	99.5	3.19	3.34	25.0%	5.7%	10.4%	48.9%	29.3%	29.0%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 2.76 — K%: 24.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.277
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.06 — K%: 24.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.277

Lester has pitched well all season, boasting a 2.44 ERA (3.61 SIERA) with a strikeout rate of 24.8%. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Giants, who were ranked 23rd in team wOBA and 26th in team ISO against left-handed pitching during the regular season. The problem is that he is facing a Giants’ offense that seems to get production from the most random places possible in the postseason. Conor Gillaspie, who was only playing because of the injury to Eduardo Nunez, hit a three-run home run in the wildcard game. These things happen far too often for me to feel comfortable using Lester in this slate.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

The Giants have struggled against left-handed pitching this season, but they are one of the best teams in baseball at putting the ball in plate. They have the second lowest strikeout rate against southpaws. While I don’t love the matchup as a whole, I expect San Francisco to be aggressive on the base paths. Jon Lester does not hold runners well, as evidenced by the 72 stolen bases allowed in the last two seasons.

• Giants Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.307 (23 of 30)
  Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.302 (27 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.135 (26 of 30)
  Team K% vs. LHP — 18.4% (2 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.76 (29 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.41 (19 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 3.04 (7 of 8)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Denard Span, Buster Posey, Hunter Pence, Angel Pagan

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs were one of the best offenses in baseball during the regular season. If they continue to get solid pitching and if they continue to perform at the plate, this could finally be the year they have been waiting for. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against Johnny Cueto, but they do get to face him at home. Chicago has the third highest implied team total in the slate.

• Cubs Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.328 (7 of 30)
  Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.326 (7 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.169 (13 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 21.5% (21 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.98 (3 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 5.02 (3 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 3.96 (3 of 8)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant

Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist, Addison Russell

Stackability – YELLOW